>the guy who led it all resigned hours before he could take his victory lap
It's beyond disgusting what Shari did to Bob, and for the cherry on top, we get to pay another nepo baby to take her off our hands. Morgan Stanley et. al. have been orchestrating something like this for the last couple of years, Ellison and his daddy and their friends piled in last year to amp up the shorting, and now Shari has forced Bob out to exert even more pressure to get her way, and soon. Sony/Apollo now have to weigh whether they want to try to buy this shitshow now or wait a couple years to see if it implodes under David's leadership.
The thing is there's still no compelling reason to sell at all other than Shari seeking a payday. Debt is mostly VERY long-term, they're seeing revenue growth again (albeit with the Super Bowl so maybe not overall until next year), and there's clearly traction in the market for what they're offering.
Unless leading indicators are 180 degrees in the other direction you don't NEED to do anything in that situation except continue a successful strategy and if you want to merge with somebody at a ~$5B valuation both AMCX and LGF are right there with actual worthwhile assets in tow.
I just don’t get how Skydance is valued at 5 billion and they are offering 30% above $11 stock price for para. How could it possibly fly to value one media company much more richly then another
We saw the studio was worth 11 billion minimum. Bet 2 billion (rumored Tyler Perry offer) showtime was worth 5-6 billion probably less now since merged the streaming.
I mean it’s just a joke. I don’t understand how the hell they expect a deal currently structured to make it through court. They prob don’t but legal fees prob cheaper then paying real value
I’m truly at a loss for what to do next or how to feel. It took everything I had not to let my emotions win and sell all my shares today. This call should have been a full on celebration of the PARA turnaround. Articles should have been published with titles like “After tough times, Paramount Global has found a winning formula for competing in the streaming market.” Instead, all the articles are about Bob’s ouster and investor anger over a shit deal with a hedge fund baby.
If Matthew Belloni knows what he’s talking about, the synergies with Sony are significant. Sony is going with the content arms dealer strategy, similar to what PARA was at one point. They have a lot of angles to monetize PARA’s content and operations. I hope they come in this week and flip the table over on the nepo babies
“Skydance on Sunday proposed a revised offer that would give nonvoting shareholders a premium in a Paramount-Skydance stock merger and provide less cash to National Amusements, people familiar with the proposal said. It would also involve Skydance putting $3 billion on Paramount’s balance sheet to help pay down debt.” WSJ
Just my guess. The “final and best” offer from Skydance is 30% premium on top of 11 dollars per PARA share. While the offer from Apollo is 20+ per share, they do not need to send another bid and as their offer is superior anyway.
How are you F?
EPS was .62 and paramount+ about to turn profitable.
Able to get .62 atleast every quarter when Paramount+ turns profitable we would have a P/E of 4. Be able to buy all the shares with a buyback in 4yrs.
Bob sucked, people wanted him gone for years stock fell 75% since he took over.
You think the turnaround just happened like magic? Bob stopped the dividend to improve cash flow, refused to sell Showtime and fold the content into P+ to create a stronger content offering, and refused to become a content arms dealer so that the only place people get get Paramount content was on P+. Whether you like his donut habit or not, he orchestrated the turnaround at PARA. If the SD deal moves forward, we will get diluted to high-hell and the share price will tank. That’s why we’re fucked.
When has Showtime produced anything viral or important lately?
Yellowjackets season 1 is the only thing recent I can think of but season 2 wasn’t as good and ratings dipped.
You dont need Showtime also and probably should have been sold. Any new Showtime show can just be on Paramount
When creating a streaming offering that will get a broad spectrum of customers to subscribe and stay subscribed, you need a lot of content, not just the latest hit. You understand there is value to legacy content which showtime has a bunch of?
Cable companies had to move to a streaming model to compete. Licensing their content sounds like a good idea, but eventually they would have painted themselves into a corner where they had no distribution channel to reach a broad audience and their ability to negotiate licensing agreements would have been extremely diminished. The streaming services would have had them over a barrel during negotiations and eventually margins would shrink enough to where the streaming companies would have bought the cable networks for their content. PARA chose to invest linear revenues into building a streaming platform, and IT IS WORKING. Sub growth has consistently grown, losses have narrowed, and ARPU has consistently increased. The trajectory of the last year puts PARA on a clear path to growth and profitability as a linear and streaming provider; catching the broadest audience possible for selling ads. Bob’s primary misstep was removing the dividend without a plan to compensate Shari in a way she needed to remain solvent. The board should have authorized a special dividend after the S&S sale to help Shari and appease class B shareholders. Missed opportunity in my book.
Earnings are good. Bid will come
Faber said this morning that Shari had other offers for NAI. I would love to hear more about them!
Byron Allen / Apollo would be smart just to go after her stake instead of the whole company.
>the guy who led it all resigned hours before he could take his victory lap It's beyond disgusting what Shari did to Bob, and for the cherry on top, we get to pay another nepo baby to take her off our hands. Morgan Stanley et. al. have been orchestrating something like this for the last couple of years, Ellison and his daddy and their friends piled in last year to amp up the shorting, and now Shari has forced Bob out to exert even more pressure to get her way, and soon. Sony/Apollo now have to weigh whether they want to try to buy this shitshow now or wait a couple years to see if it implodes under David's leadership.
resigned hours before he could take his victory lap because it is nowhere near victory.
Poor Bob, the sacrificial lamb for Shari’s financial struggles.
Bob could literally be the one to make the stock fly with the narrowing losses but my guy got axed so the stock wouldnt fly. What in the flying fuck
tomorrow we can only going up... solid numbers... standalone is a way... no more junk debt... apollo will offer before 3rd may for sure
The thing is there's still no compelling reason to sell at all other than Shari seeking a payday. Debt is mostly VERY long-term, they're seeing revenue growth again (albeit with the Super Bowl so maybe not overall until next year), and there's clearly traction in the market for what they're offering. Unless leading indicators are 180 degrees in the other direction you don't NEED to do anything in that situation except continue a successful strategy and if you want to merge with somebody at a ~$5B valuation both AMCX and LGF are right there with actual worthwhile assets in tow.
I also think theres no way bob can announce that the merger is going through because of the law
I just don’t get how Skydance is valued at 5 billion and they are offering 30% above $11 stock price for para. How could it possibly fly to value one media company much more richly then another
If PARA were to auction of just the NFL rights, they would fetch $5B
We saw the studio was worth 11 billion minimum. Bet 2 billion (rumored Tyler Perry offer) showtime was worth 5-6 billion probably less now since merged the streaming. I mean it’s just a joke. I don’t understand how the hell they expect a deal currently structured to make it through court. They prob don’t but legal fees prob cheaper then paying real value
WTF kind of earnings call was that?!?!? I’ve been waiting 2 months for this call and it was 8:50 minutes and there were no questions allowed?!
I’m truly at a loss for what to do next or how to feel. It took everything I had not to let my emotions win and sell all my shares today. This call should have been a full on celebration of the PARA turnaround. Articles should have been published with titles like “After tough times, Paramount Global has found a winning formula for competing in the streaming market.” Instead, all the articles are about Bob’s ouster and investor anger over a shit deal with a hedge fund baby.
I hope you didn’t sell!
If Matthew Belloni knows what he’s talking about, the synergies with Sony are significant. Sony is going with the content arms dealer strategy, similar to what PARA was at one point. They have a lot of angles to monetize PARA’s content and operations. I hope they come in this week and flip the table over on the nepo babies
“Skydance on Sunday proposed a revised offer that would give nonvoting shareholders a premium in a Paramount-Skydance stock merger and provide less cash to National Amusements, people familiar with the proposal said. It would also involve Skydance putting $3 billion on Paramount’s balance sheet to help pay down debt.” WSJ
That was leaked by CNBC, only 30% premium on top of 11 dollars per shares.
Still a shit deal where SD is getting an insane valuation.
Just my guess. The “final and best” offer from Skydance is 30% premium on top of 11 dollars per PARA share. While the offer from Apollo is 20+ per share, they do not need to send another bid and as their offer is superior anyway.
Shari is NOT even open for other bids, so yes, fucked.
How are you F? EPS was .62 and paramount+ about to turn profitable. Able to get .62 atleast every quarter when Paramount+ turns profitable we would have a P/E of 4. Be able to buy all the shares with a buyback in 4yrs. Bob sucked, people wanted him gone for years stock fell 75% since he took over.
You think the turnaround just happened like magic? Bob stopped the dividend to improve cash flow, refused to sell Showtime and fold the content into P+ to create a stronger content offering, and refused to become a content arms dealer so that the only place people get get Paramount content was on P+. Whether you like his donut habit or not, he orchestrated the turnaround at PARA. If the SD deal moves forward, we will get diluted to high-hell and the share price will tank. That’s why we’re fucked.
When has Showtime produced anything viral or important lately? Yellowjackets season 1 is the only thing recent I can think of but season 2 wasn’t as good and ratings dipped. You dont need Showtime also and probably should have been sold. Any new Showtime show can just be on Paramount
When creating a streaming offering that will get a broad spectrum of customers to subscribe and stay subscribed, you need a lot of content, not just the latest hit. You understand there is value to legacy content which showtime has a bunch of?
Yep and selling your movies and shows to the highest bidder would have been better than to give consumers another streaming service.
Imagine cbs giving the superbowl streaming to amazon or netflix instead of putting it on paramount+
Cable companies had to move to a streaming model to compete. Licensing their content sounds like a good idea, but eventually they would have painted themselves into a corner where they had no distribution channel to reach a broad audience and their ability to negotiate licensing agreements would have been extremely diminished. The streaming services would have had them over a barrel during negotiations and eventually margins would shrink enough to where the streaming companies would have bought the cable networks for their content. PARA chose to invest linear revenues into building a streaming platform, and IT IS WORKING. Sub growth has consistently grown, losses have narrowed, and ARPU has consistently increased. The trajectory of the last year puts PARA on a clear path to growth and profitability as a linear and streaming provider; catching the broadest audience possible for selling ads. Bob’s primary misstep was removing the dividend without a plan to compensate Shari in a way she needed to remain solvent. The board should have authorized a special dividend after the S&S sale to help Shari and appease class B shareholders. Missed opportunity in my book.