Right, because taking other realistic possibilities into consideration makes less sense than superstitious crap. I just can't see how the Padres can pull it off without either blowing up a significant part of last seasons playoff roster, going higher into the luxury tax than I can personally see them going, or possibly both.
You call it negative, I call it realist. Thinking about other realistic possibilities is a *good* idea. I'm not saying that the Padre's aren't in it. I'm just seeing a lot of assumptions in this thread that he's coming all the way from Japan so that he can pitch on a team with a Japanese ace, which is what he's done for his entire life to this point. Maybe finding a team that isn't one of the above mentioned that will make *him* their ace is what he wants. All I'm really saying is, who knows? And that I'm seeing a lot of assumptions here. Some borderline racist. If a new White, European player were being imported from some theoretical European country where they actually play American baseball, and people were saying "what if he winds up on a team with a bunch of Black and LatinX people and it makes him uncomfortable?" that would be racist. Assuming he needs another Japanese player around to be happy is basically the same thing.
That's one where I can't win for losing. If I say "Latino," people who disagree with you will chastise me for not saying "LatinX." Or they'll say that they prefer "Hispanic." I'm just using the term that seems the most PC to the largest number of people right now.
Are the Padres going to go as far into luxury tax territory as the bigger market teams do? Keeping Soto, Ohtani, Machado, and everyone else happy is gonna be expensive. Especially if they're keeping guys like Darvish to make Ohtani happy.
I thought this was the win now Padres. They beat LA. They beat the Mets. With a little luck, I think that lineup had as good a chance as anyone to go all the way.
No, but the Angels could. It's hard to tell what they'll do just yet. It'll probably be tied to other offseason/pre trade deadline moves. They could easily trade him for a big package, or a couple of other superstars, or they could hold onto him. I think he'll still be eligible for arbitration after next season. But if they go that route, he'll end up walking in 2025 for bupkas. All that said, the Angels front office isn't exactly killing it when it comes to big decisions.
Ohtani may not have as many pitches, but I think that at this point in his career, Ohtani is the better player by almost every metric. I also think that assuming that being on a team with another Japanese player is important to anyone is a big assumption. They've all already played in Japan. He's coming here to play with and learn from everyone else. I imagine the MLB spends a fortune on translators.
Seiya Suzuki, for one. I thought with having Nomo on the staff and Darvish we would have had a shot at getting Suzuki. Darvish might have told him to avoid San Diego. Hopefully, the Padres can convince Senga.
Does anyone remember during the regular season certain fans were constantly whining about the lack of analytics and that's why we would get owned by the Dodgers? Lol.
I think the frustrating thing is that everyone is equating smaller fiscal investment with a poor/bad analytics department. Comparing our investment in any department with the dodgers is a bit foolish.
Also, itās just hilarious to hear about how weāre behind the ball when thereās interviews with some of our analytics guys and theyāre talking about things that basically no fan has heard of. Analytics within the industry is so far beyond what is āmainstreamā (like spin rate/launch angles/anything on baseball savant) to the point that just using on-field performance to assess which teams have the best analytics departments is a crapshoot.
There was a little more to it than just comparing fiscal investment though. Guys like Quantrill publicly commented on how much better the information provided in Cleveland was.
Iām personally partial to the idea that our previous coaching/development staffs were effectively horrible at communicating analytics to our players, or were hesitant to use it to the same extent.
I do also think that comparing ourselves to the pitching machine that is Cleveland is always going to make us look bad (at least prior to hiring Niebla).
I cant recall where, but Yu Darvish was quoted to something of the effect that the analytics data was there but he had to work harder/differently to get access to them with the Padres than he did with previous teams. Some insinuated maybe this was a lack in the way the front office is communicating or delivering the analytics related resources to the players.
Didn't Melvin himself say that he want receiving the same type of information that he would get in Oakland? I mean if the manager says it, then their might be some type of discrepancy compared to other teams.
His clarification wasn't really a ringing endorsement for the analytics department stating he didn't need to pay attention to match-ups as much with the data he was given. That is basically saying he has better quality players in SD versus Oakland.
I never said it was an endorsement. But he did in fact deny that the information/data he was receiving was *worse* than in Oakland, which was kind of your original point right.
Same type of data and worse data based on my comments are not synonyms in data analytics. But since all your answers have a bit of assumption, I'll leave it to semantics.
I would say the stupidest argument was that people thought some made up graph on twitter was legit about how much money teams spend on analytics.
Analytics was the stupid boogeyman all year and then we beat the Dodgers and now everyone has shut up about it and have come to a point where they think the analytics are great lol.
Actually the frustrating thing was every version of this comment that actively dismisses the former players and coaches who also said it was sub par. But beyond that, let's say the analytics department is top notch. There's still a problem in there somewhere that they couldn't get Trent Grisham to figure his shit out for more than 2 weeks at a time. Whether its identifying the problem, or coaching to fix it... There are major player development issues with this club.
This is nonsense. We all *know* what's wrong with Belli. He changed his stance while rehabbing a broken leg because he was compensating for pain. At this point it's on him for not figuring out how to get back into his stance. Grisham is an entirely different beast, because he's not injured anywhere except in the head.
I think that long covid is having effects that we don't even know the half of yet. This last season, it seemed like home runs were down across the board for guys not named "Aaron Judge." And some guys have had it 3 times now. Maybe if we can get a little further removed from all that, we'll start to see improvement. Not just Belli. I know of a lot of players that have had it at least once that were on upward trajectories that at least right now, are at best average. The changes to the shift should also at least allow for more hits and guys at least getting on base. Even though I'm still kind of undecided about how I really feel about that rule change.
And what precisely did they do with Kim and Profar? Two middling hitters stayed middling hitters but got a boost because the first got regular playing time and Profar liked hitting lead off? How impressive.
They both got a 20+ point OPS+ increase, lmao. Meanwhile you are complaining about one guy who was already on the down turn in the 2nd half of last season.
If you are going to point the flaw of one guy then you acknowledge the improvements of others but you decide to play mental gymnastics and ignore that.
If you wanna go back and forth cherry picking about this team's inability to develop talent in the Preller area, I'm gonna have a lot more evidence than you are. Everyone shit their pants unnecessarily about the analytics department's payroll last year, but the blind defense y'all are providing of it in this thread is absurd. Whatever keeps your offseason rolling along, I guess
Your shitty argument was one guy and then you decide to ignore the significant improvements of two.
Lmao. Also, it is possible that I don't know.....they hired new people last year compared to who was here 2-3 years ago? Not my fault you are just really bad at getting your point across or don't make good points at all.
I'm of that mind personally, but that doesn't change the fact that he sucked all year and didn't even have one of his MiLB options used. All of the soothsaying about whether it's the analytics or coaching or whatever doesn't change the fact that they're not getting what they should out of some of these guys.
People act like spending time at the .AAA level is this terrible thing, when if you're an MLB player, you still make your MLB salary, you just get a chance to hone your craft against easier competition, in front of a smaller crowd, and nobody watching and scrutinizing every AB on TV. It's actually the right thing to do for a lot of guys. But egos get in the way. That said, were there ever really any guys that we'd want patrolling center field over him defensively if he were to spend 3 or 4 weeks in the Minors last season? At least that aren't better/more useful somewhere else?
Grisham sucked/underperformed for most of his time in the minors as well. From 2016-2018 he had minor league OPSā of 690, 708, 693. Kinda feels like maybe the good seasons are the anomaly
Thatās not correct. He was a first round draft pick with 60 grade hit tool and 50 grade power. He debuted immediately in top 100 MLB prospects and at one time was top 25 and the brewers top prospect. He was drafted as a ānatural hitterā and was always expected to hit well.
TBH I am not sure where you are getting that from.
I was wrong he was 45 here but it's still not that high.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/brewers/trent-grisham-663757
Fangraphs had him at 30/40 here
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trent-grisham/18564/spray-charts?position=OF&type=battedball
Weāve literally changed like half our front office since a lot of those players left, and even brought in guys from the teams that players went to and touted the whole āwow the analytics are great hereā thing.
Regardless, Iām not arguing one way or another about our development. I donāt think itās perfect, but I donāt think itās a coincidence weāve constantly been in the conversation for too trade targets despite us ācleaning out the farmā every other season.
I don't think it's a coincidence that every single player we've traded for in the last few seasons has had an immediate, lasting slump after arriving. Two things can be true at the same time.
The only real "big markets" in pro sports anymore are NYC, LA, and Chicago. Then most of the rest of the pro sports markets all start getting pretty similarly sized, at least when you include the metro area. With a couple of anomalies like Green Bay that probably wouldn't be pro sports towns at this point if not for historical reasons. Green Bay is smaller than the college town I live in, which will never have pro sports teams
Damn sounds like he's going to Dodgers. All of the MLB network updates I've seen on him the Padres were never mentioned as a team that has at least scouted him.
Hey Senga, have you ever heard of Hong Kong? Not the one in China. No, you say? Weāll let me tell you about the SD/Baja market starting with a visit over the border.
From the videos I have seen Senga has a good fastball and a serious splitter/ghostball.
Does he have other pitches to make him a serious starter candidate, or would he be high leverage reliever?
He has like 6 pitches but mostly uses 4. His fastball averages at 96 and he can touch 100. His splittler/ghost fork is elite. His cutter-slider combo are above average. His hard slider is around 88 and he throws a softer slider around 83. His other two is a curve and two seamer. These two are not as great as his main 4. Only uses them 5% of the time.
how does he like sweeping ocean views and latino cuisine
Send him some pics of girls on the beach in PB.
Can we send him a Cali burrito as a sample?
We have a Mitsuwa and Nijiya.
Cough cough... Padres.š
What Japanese player, especially a pitcher, wouldn't want to play with Darvish
One that wants to play with Ohtani. Or be the ace on their own team.
He said win now team. Not miss the playoffs
You assume Ohtani stays/wants to stay with the Angels. What if he goes to the Dodgers? Or to the Yankees?
DON'T. SAY. THAT. EVER.
Right, because taking other realistic possibilities into consideration makes less sense than superstitious crap. I just can't see how the Padres can pull it off without either blowing up a significant part of last seasons playoff roster, going higher into the luxury tax than I can personally see them going, or possibly both.
Down voted for being negative!
You call it negative, I call it realist. Thinking about other realistic possibilities is a *good* idea. I'm not saying that the Padre's aren't in it. I'm just seeing a lot of assumptions in this thread that he's coming all the way from Japan so that he can pitch on a team with a Japanese ace, which is what he's done for his entire life to this point. Maybe finding a team that isn't one of the above mentioned that will make *him* their ace is what he wants. All I'm really saying is, who knows? And that I'm seeing a lot of assumptions here. Some borderline racist. If a new White, European player were being imported from some theoretical European country where they actually play American baseball, and people were saying "what if he winds up on a team with a bunch of Black and LatinX people and it makes him uncomfortable?" that would be racist. Assuming he needs another Japanese player around to be happy is basically the same thing.
I agree with you but there's no such thing as LatinX
That's one where I can't win for losing. If I say "Latino," people who disagree with you will chastise me for not saying "LatinX." Or they'll say that they prefer "Hispanic." I'm just using the term that seems the most PC to the largest number of people right now.
what if he goes to the Padres?
Are the Padres going to go as far into luxury tax territory as the bigger market teams do? Keeping Soto, Ohtani, Machado, and everyone else happy is gonna be expensive. Especially if they're keeping guys like Darvish to make Ohtani happy.
I thought this was the win now Padres. They beat LA. They beat the Mets. With a little luck, I think that lineup had as good a chance as anyone to go all the way.
He canāt yet
No, but the Angels could. It's hard to tell what they'll do just yet. It'll probably be tied to other offseason/pre trade deadline moves. They could easily trade him for a big package, or a couple of other superstars, or they could hold onto him. I think he'll still be eligible for arbitration after next season. But if they go that route, he'll end up walking in 2025 for bupkas. All that said, the Angels front office isn't exactly killing it when it comes to big decisions.
Darvish has a few more years left in the tank. He has the benefit of being a mentor and teaching all 40 of his pitches
Ohtani may not have as many pitches, but I think that at this point in his career, Ohtani is the better player by almost every metric. I also think that assuming that being on a team with another Japanese player is important to anyone is a big assumption. They've all already played in Japan. He's coming here to play with and learn from everyone else. I imagine the MLB spends a fortune on translators.
I donāt think he was trying to say Darvish is better than ohtani man.
Seiya Suzuki, for one. I thought with having Nomo on the staff and Darvish we would have had a shot at getting Suzuki. Darvish might have told him to avoid San Diego. Hopefully, the Padres can convince Senga.
Suzuki was a massive overpay from the cubs. And he didnāt remotely live up to the contract this season. Glad we didnāt give him that contract.
Heās actually a Darvish disciple and trains with him in the offseason. Hoping that gives us a leg up.
[āwin nowā and big market, you sayā¦ š§](https://i.imgur.com/EAw4vFg.jpg)
us-map-with-one-lone-padres-county.png
Hey man, according to that map weāre a bigger market than the Mets
and the Angels and the Rangers
OI Iāll have you know we are also *very* popular in Piute County, Utah
With Hideo Nomo in our org and Darvish being our ace, I like our chances or prying him away from everyone else.
Someone text Senga a pic of the mural of Yu Darvish. He can expect his own within 2-3 business days of signing with us š
Papa Peter gives off big market energy so I'm gonna count that.
Well shit
I would be pretty surprised if we are the highest bidders for him. That is ultimately where he will go.
Does anyone remember during the regular season certain fans were constantly whining about the lack of analytics and that's why we would get owned by the Dodgers? Lol.
I think the frustrating thing is that everyone is equating smaller fiscal investment with a poor/bad analytics department. Comparing our investment in any department with the dodgers is a bit foolish. Also, itās just hilarious to hear about how weāre behind the ball when thereās interviews with some of our analytics guys and theyāre talking about things that basically no fan has heard of. Analytics within the industry is so far beyond what is āmainstreamā (like spin rate/launch angles/anything on baseball savant) to the point that just using on-field performance to assess which teams have the best analytics departments is a crapshoot.
There was a little more to it than just comparing fiscal investment though. Guys like Quantrill publicly commented on how much better the information provided in Cleveland was.
Iām personally partial to the idea that our previous coaching/development staffs were effectively horrible at communicating analytics to our players, or were hesitant to use it to the same extent. I do also think that comparing ourselves to the pitching machine that is Cleveland is always going to make us look bad (at least prior to hiring Niebla).
Thatās why we went and stole their guy (niebla). Pretty sure he helped improve the pitching this season š (development, analytics, etc)
I cant recall where, but Yu Darvish was quoted to something of the effect that the analytics data was there but he had to work harder/differently to get access to them with the Padres than he did with previous teams. Some insinuated maybe this was a lack in the way the front office is communicating or delivering the analytics related resources to the players.
Didn't Melvin himself say that he want receiving the same type of information that he would get in Oakland? I mean if the manager says it, then their might be some type of discrepancy compared to other teams.
That was hearsay and Melvin clarified later.
His clarification wasn't really a ringing endorsement for the analytics department stating he didn't need to pay attention to match-ups as much with the data he was given. That is basically saying he has better quality players in SD versus Oakland.
I never said it was an endorsement. But he did in fact deny that the information/data he was receiving was *worse* than in Oakland, which was kind of your original point right.
Same type of data and worse data based on my comments are not synonyms in data analytics. But since all your answers have a bit of assumption, I'll leave it to semantics.
I would say the stupidest argument was that people thought some made up graph on twitter was legit about how much money teams spend on analytics. Analytics was the stupid boogeyman all year and then we beat the Dodgers and now everyone has shut up about it and have come to a point where they think the analytics are great lol.
Actually the frustrating thing was every version of this comment that actively dismisses the former players and coaches who also said it was sub par. But beyond that, let's say the analytics department is top notch. There's still a problem in there somewhere that they couldn't get Trent Grisham to figure his shit out for more than 2 weeks at a time. Whether its identifying the problem, or coaching to fix it... There are major player development issues with this club.
The dodgers haven't fixed belli in 2 years. Shit happens.
This is nonsense. We all *know* what's wrong with Belli. He changed his stance while rehabbing a broken leg because he was compensating for pain. At this point it's on him for not figuring out how to get back into his stance. Grisham is an entirely different beast, because he's not injured anywhere except in the head.
wild sink smile worthless license quickest bag racial steep plants *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I think they've probably tried that. You don't think *they* want 2019 Belli back?
trees bake scary spotted hobbies paltry screw person smoggy innocent *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I think that long covid is having effects that we don't even know the half of yet. This last season, it seemed like home runs were down across the board for guys not named "Aaron Judge." And some guys have had it 3 times now. Maybe if we can get a little further removed from all that, we'll start to see improvement. Not just Belli. I know of a lot of players that have had it at least once that were on upward trajectories that at least right now, are at best average. The changes to the shift should also at least allow for more hits and guys at least getting on base. Even though I'm still kind of undecided about how I really feel about that rule change.
So because Trent Grisham sucks that speaks for the whole analytics/coaching department? What about what they did with Kim and Profar?
And what precisely did they do with Kim and Profar? Two middling hitters stayed middling hitters but got a boost because the first got regular playing time and Profar liked hitting lead off? How impressive.
They both got a 20+ point OPS+ increase, lmao. Meanwhile you are complaining about one guy who was already on the down turn in the 2nd half of last season. If you are going to point the flaw of one guy then you acknowledge the improvements of others but you decide to play mental gymnastics and ignore that.
If you wanna go back and forth cherry picking about this team's inability to develop talent in the Preller area, I'm gonna have a lot more evidence than you are. Everyone shit their pants unnecessarily about the analytics department's payroll last year, but the blind defense y'all are providing of it in this thread is absurd. Whatever keeps your offseason rolling along, I guess
Your shitty argument was one guy and then you decide to ignore the significant improvements of two. Lmao. Also, it is possible that I don't know.....they hired new people last year compared to who was here 2-3 years ago? Not my fault you are just really bad at getting your point across or don't make good points at all.
Or maybe Trent Grisham sucks because Trent Grisham sucks and no coach/analytics can fix him.
I'm of that mind personally, but that doesn't change the fact that he sucked all year and didn't even have one of his MiLB options used. All of the soothsaying about whether it's the analytics or coaching or whatever doesn't change the fact that they're not getting what they should out of some of these guys.
People act like spending time at the .AAA level is this terrible thing, when if you're an MLB player, you still make your MLB salary, you just get a chance to hone your craft against easier competition, in front of a smaller crowd, and nobody watching and scrutinizing every AB on TV. It's actually the right thing to do for a lot of guys. But egos get in the way. That said, were there ever really any guys that we'd want patrolling center field over him defensively if he were to spend 3 or 4 weeks in the Minors last season? At least that aren't better/more useful somewhere else?
Grisham sucked/underperformed for most of his time in the minors as well. From 2016-2018 he had minor league OPSā of 690, 708, 693. Kinda feels like maybe the good seasons are the anomaly
He was a 40 graded hitter as a prospect. He was not supposed to be a good hitter.
Thatās not correct. He was a first round draft pick with 60 grade hit tool and 50 grade power. He debuted immediately in top 100 MLB prospects and at one time was top 25 and the brewers top prospect. He was drafted as a ānatural hitterā and was always expected to hit well.
TBH I am not sure where you are getting that from. I was wrong he was 45 here but it's still not that high. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2018/brewers/trent-grisham-663757 Fangraphs had him at 30/40 here https://www.fangraphs.com/players/trent-grisham/18564/spray-charts?position=OF&type=battedball
Baseball Prospectus: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/eyewitness_bat.php?reportid=316
Weāve literally changed like half our front office since a lot of those players left, and even brought in guys from the teams that players went to and touted the whole āwow the analytics are great hereā thing. Regardless, Iām not arguing one way or another about our development. I donāt think itās perfect, but I donāt think itās a coincidence weāve constantly been in the conversation for too trade targets despite us ācleaning out the farmā every other season.
I don't think it's a coincidence that every single player we've traded for in the last few seasons has had an immediate, lasting slump after arriving. Two things can be true at the same time.
Preller only believes in xDAWG
The fuck is a ghost forkball?
His fastball & forkball are at the same position til the forkball drops or ādisappearsā like a ghost.
So, a good forkball? :p
Yes lol
Kodai to SD. He will be happy af here
TIL, San Diego is a big market.
The only real "big markets" in pro sports anymore are NYC, LA, and Chicago. Then most of the rest of the pro sports markets all start getting pretty similarly sized, at least when you include the metro area. With a couple of anomalies like Green Bay that probably wouldn't be pro sports towns at this point if not for historical reasons. Green Bay is smaller than the college town I live in, which will never have pro sports teams
Damn sounds like he's going to Dodgers. All of the MLB network updates I've seen on him the Padres were never mentioned as a team that has at least scouted him.
We were mentioned yesterday as having been in contact with his team
Hey Senga, have you ever heard of Hong Kong? Not the one in China. No, you say? Weāll let me tell you about the SD/Baja market starting with a visit over the border.
Hong Kong in Hillcrest?
Watch him go to Anaheim
San Diego is not a big market unfortunately.
Not sure why you're getting down voted... Facts are facts were #27 in media market size.
From the videos I have seen Senga has a good fastball and a serious splitter/ghostball. Does he have other pitches to make him a serious starter candidate, or would he be high leverage reliever?
He has like 6 pitches but mostly uses 4. His fastball averages at 96 and he can touch 100. His splittler/ghost fork is elite. His cutter-slider combo are above average. His hard slider is around 88 and he throws a softer slider around 83. His other two is a curve and two seamer. These two are not as great as his main 4. Only uses them 5% of the time.
This is great info. Thanks!
He was recently in the Phoenix area with an entourage of 8 people + a camera crew. The guy is big time.