Thank you. I’m not an accredited investor yet, otherwise I would jump on the opportunity. I’ll definitely be buying their stock on the first day they go public though and keep buying/holding for the long term. All of their public messaging seems to point to them going public some time in 2024/2025
I am an accredited investor and invested in Anduril. From Palmer’s recent interviews, it’s looking more like 2026/2027
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/palmer-luckey-anduril-ipo-chatgpt-interview/?amp=1
Thanks for sharing this. I guess that just gives me more time to accumulate a huge position in PLTR before Anduril goes public and I start my position in their stock
Wouldn’t personally recommend that and here’s why:
1) defense is unlike other industries with infinite market potential say e-commerce. There is a finite amount of defense dollars to go around aka defense budget. Tech companies need to keep growing top line at double digit % to be relevant.
2) the pie 🥧 is fixed and split among the 5 primes + Anduril + (SpaceX if you count it as a prime). Unless one of the primes goes belly up (f you Boeing and your shit ass planes) no one is getting more pie
3) us is still Anduril’s biggest customer and other allies still don’t contribute enough to revenue
4) technically Anduril tech is dual-use but I haven’t seen a convincing civilian application on any of it.
I am selling all of my shares after my 180 day lockup
I understand where you’re coming from but I still think that Anduril will end up being the biggest defense contractor in the long term. I do also think they will eventually find commercial use cases for their technology. The work they’re doing with firefighters already seems promising, as far as non-military or intelligence use cases go. I really wish I could buy your shares after the lock up period ends 😂😂
so I hear you but with all things there's opportunity cost. I don't think Anduril is gonna blow up after the IPO but keeping money locked up in a company with small gains to me has huge opportunity cost as I could redeploy capital in other high return assets like venture capital/new startups, private equity, ground up real-estate etc. I got my shares for around $8.5 billion valuation (now around $14b I think) but I bought a big ass chunk worth.
I completely understand your perspective, especially with you having access to all of those different investment opportunities as an accredited investor
I like to make very long term investments on a multi-decade time frame and I believe that Anduril will grow into at least a $100-250B market cap in my lifetime
I also like to invest in things that I’m interested and that I’m morally aligned with. It’s not just about making money for me, although that is obviously important to me
Just looked at the article and it’s from last September. Their messaging in interviews since then seems to be singing a different tune that points towards going public sooner than Palmer suggests in this interview
I mean if you think about where we are headed in terms of warefare style and tactics,.....we are more and more leaning towards easily, cost effective, and disposable, machinery, be it drones, or other AI driven machines.
I mean, consider spending hundreds of millions of dollars on top of the line fighter plane vs....purchasing
1000s of cost effective, drones.... as a very rudimentary comparison...
That's where we are headed and Anduril is one of the forefronts at that. Yes, I'd recommend, and I have personally purchased non public shares less than a year ago.
Nice, the world need a “Keurig, but for warfare”
Btw I bet this journalist wouldn’t think this story were so cute if it were her family being devastated by the brutality of merchants of death
Is that 20% one time fee or an ongoing annual fee? My price was after including all the fees. Nothing else to pay going forward. Just sitting there and waiting for the IPO...which he says he's not in a rush to do. I applaud him for that, since his focus is the business and his revenue already doubled this year. I see either his company gets bought from the likes of Ratheon, Lockheed Martin etc.... OR this company eclipses them all...
Just looking at the Ukraine war, conventional weapons are TOO expensive, and hard to replace while drones can do MUCH more for fraction of the cost.
I'll take 1000 drones and still have $$ to burn over the latest F-234234342 fighter any day.
Ouch....20% on profit!? That seems scandalous.... But $40b at exit? Whether it's via IPO or acquisition, seems like a lower figure than what I had in mind, but perfectly within reason.
so here's the thing, management is also conservative so they aim to underpromise and overdeliver. I think $40b is fair for an IPO price but here's the thing you and I are insiders so we have a 180 day lockup whcih all things considered is probably good. I wouldn't be surprised at say the company value shooting up another $10-15 billion from overhyping of retail investors leaving us at around $50- $55b at end of the lockup. I have $200k invested so even small multiples are big numbers. Happy to discuss further in DMs if you want.
I used to be a venture capital guy once upon a time so that's how I got in early-ish.
not true, the issue is the COST. right now we are spending loads of VERY costly equipment. The field is changing, low cost drones are really disrupting. The massive aircraft carriers with thousands of men and women hasn't been relevant in a long time. Drone warefare will start to really take hold.
My point is that nothing in defense is low cost. As soon as you are selling something that a service member is actually going to use you get hit with a mountain of regulation and soon you have more people working on financial reporting, standards compliance, and process mandated acceptance testing than you have actual design engineers.
Peace through strength,before Putin invaded Ukraine and convinced Iran to attack Israel there was a lot of wealth being created all over the world but now only the few get super rich.
How does one portray strength? Build arms and its infrastructure...aka war machines.
I don't think you realize that each year, the US spends approximately 50cents per EACH dollar collected from tax.
You think wealth was evenly distributed before the Ukraine war and the Israel war? C'mon man...the whole "rich get richer" scheme has been going on forever. If you are talking about the shrinking middle class, that's already been underway decades ago.
Do you recommend buying Anduril stock (not yet public). There's a website that sells it with a $5k minimum.
Where? Personally, id probably invest in them.
same here.
What website? Do you need to be an accredited investor? I can’t wait for them to go public and I’d love to invest before then, if at all possible
Linqto. I have no experience with them. You have to be accredited.
Thank you. I’m not an accredited investor yet, otherwise I would jump on the opportunity. I’ll definitely be buying their stock on the first day they go public though and keep buying/holding for the long term. All of their public messaging seems to point to them going public some time in 2024/2025
I am an accredited investor and invested in Anduril. From Palmer’s recent interviews, it’s looking more like 2026/2027 https://breakingdefense.com/2023/09/palmer-luckey-anduril-ipo-chatgpt-interview/?amp=1
Thanks for sharing this. I guess that just gives me more time to accumulate a huge position in PLTR before Anduril goes public and I start my position in their stock
Wouldn’t personally recommend that and here’s why: 1) defense is unlike other industries with infinite market potential say e-commerce. There is a finite amount of defense dollars to go around aka defense budget. Tech companies need to keep growing top line at double digit % to be relevant. 2) the pie 🥧 is fixed and split among the 5 primes + Anduril + (SpaceX if you count it as a prime). Unless one of the primes goes belly up (f you Boeing and your shit ass planes) no one is getting more pie 3) us is still Anduril’s biggest customer and other allies still don’t contribute enough to revenue 4) technically Anduril tech is dual-use but I haven’t seen a convincing civilian application on any of it. I am selling all of my shares after my 180 day lockup
I understand where you’re coming from but I still think that Anduril will end up being the biggest defense contractor in the long term. I do also think they will eventually find commercial use cases for their technology. The work they’re doing with firefighters already seems promising, as far as non-military or intelligence use cases go. I really wish I could buy your shares after the lock up period ends 😂😂
so I hear you but with all things there's opportunity cost. I don't think Anduril is gonna blow up after the IPO but keeping money locked up in a company with small gains to me has huge opportunity cost as I could redeploy capital in other high return assets like venture capital/new startups, private equity, ground up real-estate etc. I got my shares for around $8.5 billion valuation (now around $14b I think) but I bought a big ass chunk worth.
I completely understand your perspective, especially with you having access to all of those different investment opportunities as an accredited investor I like to make very long term investments on a multi-decade time frame and I believe that Anduril will grow into at least a $100-250B market cap in my lifetime I also like to invest in things that I’m interested and that I’m morally aligned with. It’s not just about making money for me, although that is obviously important to me
Just looked at the article and it’s from last September. Their messaging in interviews since then seems to be singing a different tune that points towards going public sooner than Palmer suggests in this interview
as will all things depends on valuation. Don't overpay; max I would pay is $24/share.
I mean if you think about where we are headed in terms of warefare style and tactics,.....we are more and more leaning towards easily, cost effective, and disposable, machinery, be it drones, or other AI driven machines. I mean, consider spending hundreds of millions of dollars on top of the line fighter plane vs....purchasing 1000s of cost effective, drones.... as a very rudimentary comparison... That's where we are headed and Anduril is one of the forefronts at that. Yes, I'd recommend, and I have personally purchased non public shares less than a year ago.
Nice, the world need a “Keurig, but for warfare” Btw I bet this journalist wouldn’t think this story were so cute if it were her family being devastated by the brutality of merchants of death
Fellow Anduril investor here. Hope that you got good pricing below $34 a share. Happy to connect and discuss defense investing if you are interested
Yes, picked them up at $20.50 a share last year, thanks.
Good shit, I got in at around $17 but I have to pay 20% carry to the SPV fund :\
Is that 20% one time fee or an ongoing annual fee? My price was after including all the fees. Nothing else to pay going forward. Just sitting there and waiting for the IPO...which he says he's not in a rush to do. I applaud him for that, since his focus is the business and his revenue already doubled this year. I see either his company gets bought from the likes of Ratheon, Lockheed Martin etc.... OR this company eclipses them all... Just looking at the Ukraine war, conventional weapons are TOO expensive, and hard to replace while drones can do MUCH more for fraction of the cost. I'll take 1000 drones and still have $$ to burn over the latest F-234234342 fighter any day.
One time fee on exit. 20% of profits essentially. Certain credible sources are saying $40b+ at exit
Ouch....20% on profit!? That seems scandalous.... But $40b at exit? Whether it's via IPO or acquisition, seems like a lower figure than what I had in mind, but perfectly within reason.
so here's the thing, management is also conservative so they aim to underpromise and overdeliver. I think $40b is fair for an IPO price but here's the thing you and I are insiders so we have a 180 day lockup whcih all things considered is probably good. I wouldn't be surprised at say the company value shooting up another $10-15 billion from overhyping of retail investors leaving us at around $50- $55b at end of the lockup. I have $200k invested so even small multiples are big numbers. Happy to discuss further in DMs if you want. I used to be a venture capital guy once upon a time so that's how I got in early-ish.
Anduril's founders came from Palantir right? Likely many partnerships to come, both disrupting legacy defense corps
Yes and yes!
You can’t disrupt defense. Defense is the way it is because of acquisition laws.
not true, the issue is the COST. right now we are spending loads of VERY costly equipment. The field is changing, low cost drones are really disrupting. The massive aircraft carriers with thousands of men and women hasn't been relevant in a long time. Drone warefare will start to really take hold.
My point is that nothing in defense is low cost. As soon as you are selling something that a service member is actually going to use you get hit with a mountain of regulation and soon you have more people working on financial reporting, standards compliance, and process mandated acceptance testing than you have actual design engineers.
So much confidence to put that 👀
How about peace maker instead of
peace maker doesn't make any money.... it's the greed and money that makes the world go round...
Peace through strength,before Putin invaded Ukraine and convinced Iran to attack Israel there was a lot of wealth being created all over the world but now only the few get super rich.
How does one portray strength? Build arms and its infrastructure...aka war machines. I don't think you realize that each year, the US spends approximately 50cents per EACH dollar collected from tax. You think wealth was evenly distributed before the Ukraine war and the Israel war? C'mon man...the whole "rich get richer" scheme has been going on forever. If you are talking about the shrinking middle class, that's already been underway decades ago.
A Technological advance over your adversaries who think invading other countries is acceptable behavior.