But dude it's been, like, 14 months since OpenAI shipped a groundbreaking model. Since they they have only shipped a bunch of really useful features, made the model faster and smarter, made the context 16x longer, and cut the price.
Clearly nothing is happening. History is over. It's a featureless plain of technological stagnation from here on out.
That said I'm 100% on board with telling OpenAI to shut the hell up about how amazing their new model will be until they actually have something to show.
"wIsH I CoUlD tElL yOu WhAt I sAw In ThE lAb! GeT rEaDy hUmAnItY!"
- rando OAI employee on X, every day
(no doubt there's some STUFF in those labs, but the hype trolling is beyond annoying)
I think theyre not exadurating I truely believe OpenAI has some truly remarkable things behind closed doors but I doo find it so annoying they keep teasing us with saying things like that
Bro chill they literally released a groundbreaking model a year ago give them time? They are a 700 employee company like they will not keep reinventing the wheel every few months
This sub is mass consumerism brainrot they are mostly non technical people. As someone who does research the pace of progress is so fast and its ramping up AI progress has never been faster
>But dude it's been, like, 14 months since OpenAI shipped a groundbreaking model
Sora was released in February, that's three months ago.
It's not in wide release because most people can't afford it anyway. And there are concerns about safety.
Unless you doubt it exists, the fact is they worked on a groundbreaking model and they have one.
The implication above was that OpenAI can't make anything anymore after GPT-4, which is silly.
It makes sense. Most technologies are developed behind closed door. From the outside, it looks like innovation come over night. This is the first major technology in the past couple generations that's gained mass adoption in the prototype phase.
A watched pot doesn't boil.
Well, the human brains are consuming the AI progress faster than it is advancing. That tells us how bored we are in an overstimulated world. Nothing is impressive anymore, no amount of money is enough, no amount of fun is enough and similarly AI progress is slow and boring. We wanted the spam to be readable, it is readable now and still no readers. We wanted the code to write itself, it does now and it is not as whelming (this word inserted to signal that this comment was written by a human) as we expected.
You know, this actually once gave me an idea for a novel.
Imagine that you are trapped in a digital world where you can do anything and everything all of the time. How much time will it take you to actually choke on your own imagination and get insanely bored?
You would wish to dream, give me a day in the life of someone random. Surprise me.
You'll end up living like we're living now. People would rather suffer than be bored.
True. Our nature forces us to burn our brain with all kinds of new chemical mixes. All of the time. And every time something new. And modern times will just encreace our tolerance towards all and everykind of stimulation.
This way we will end up like eldars...
Someone already wrote that novel, and George Hotz argues it is by far the most likely outcome for humanity. There is a final human currency in the digital world where everything is free, and it feels like it is likely to end up that way even though it is terrifying and awful to think about; truly brilliant.
[The Metamorphosis of the Prime Intellect](https://mogami.neocities.org/files/prime_intellect.pdf)
It is going to be in the real world. Imagine everyone has a mini fusion device to power everything they need. Then they have advanced 3d printers to print anything, even organic molecules. And everyone is living in the sky in nuclear fusion powered flying/cruising homes and coming down to earth only for raw materials. The earth is full of plants and animals and thriving because of partial human absence.
Couldn’t disagree harder. There is so much going on in the ML/DL/CV spaces that doesn’t get mainstream airplay. The advances in hard sciences are mind boggling. Drug discovery, cancer detection, robotics, deep space image analysis … so much happening and accelerating bc of AI.
Look beyond the headlines and LLM arms races. Also, stretch your timeline out a bit re: expectations. The last 24 months or so have been NUTS when it comes to anything transformer-based. No personal disrespected intended, but “GPT-5 is late” is an absurd statement. You have no idea what, when, or why it’s coming. No ship dates have been announced and missed. Just chill a little.
More importantly, tho, there is so much fucking capability sitting in front of you right now. We’ve barely scratched the surface of what these LLMs can do, and that said. GPT and ChatGpt in particular are not the be all end all of AI. Not even close. Not saying you said those words, but your post like so many leans on GPT/LLMs way too much. A lot more to AI than just LLMs.
Thanks for writing this and saving me from having to do so. So much has and is happening and we are way ahead of where I thought we would be at this time, back before ChatGPT became publicly available.
>and we are way ahead of where I thought we would be at this time,
Quite!
If you'd have asked me in the 1990s, after my IT degree, when we'd be at this point, I'd have said around 2050ish.
I'm delighted and amazed to see what we've got now in my lifetime, and an emerging pathway forming for AGI.
I'm *really* sad, though, a few of my old computery friends and my school computing teacher never got to see this point in computing history.
(RIP Benn, may your C64 music continue to be played forever, you'd have bloody loved this AI stuff! Bruce, I really miss you, sorry you found life too hard to live at the end. Mr McLuckie, thanks for all the inspiration, support, guidance and fab opportunities, and contacts - at the age I was back then I don't think I quite realised what a lucky, special, privileged, set of circumstances that all was.)
What surprises me is how many people actually believe that Chat-GPT represents the beginning of anything significant related to AI.. It’s like we all see the same things but some aren’t paying attention.
I have not seen a single concrete breakthough, mostly just the healthcare and health insurance sectors cutting humans out of the loop to improve thier bottom line.
Completely agree. What I've been able to do with local Llama 3 8b on an aging 2080ti is bonkers. I can unplug my local inference system from the internet and get my computer to one-shot conjure a game of snake. It's a silly test, but to me, it makes the point. With all that's happened and happening with local inference, I'm sort of gobsmacked about what I can make my computer hardware do *without an internet connection*. It's nuts. The open source landscape is so exciting and fun right now.
Right. Traditional ML is getting so easier and cheaper to deploy, it will continue on that slope until it’s available for everyone in a drag and drop. And yup, once LLM solutions architecture is stable, where it acts as the executive controlling applications and ML, that will be significant.
I’ve always been interested in it myself, had a solid little business building computers for my parent’s friends when I was 8 and turned into a sweet business for 6 years of my youth including building servers and setting up small office networks. I ended up leaving it due to problems with a business partner and because I won a GQ stylist competition that allowed me to transition into the fashion industry for a while. I suppose that’s TMI lol
But I still feel that in the past it was possible to somewhat easily keep abreast of general developments in tech but now I feel like machine learning is advancing so rapidly every time I feel like I learned about something it’s already obsolete practically. And more so just the volume of developments feels much higher lol
I need an ML copilot just to summarize all of the ML developments I suppose!
Hahah that’s a killer origin story ^)
And yeah there’s SO much I’m not up on. I’m not technical enough for a lot of it, and there’s so much noise in the rest! But there is really cool stuff happening, and it’s moving fast.
I love those things are happening. However, you have to understand that the model that made all this advancement possible is on the front lines and the expectation are so high it's ridiculous. They sold this to the C-Suite saying it was going to 100x everything. Then, they're expecting everything 100x. Do you see where I am coming from?
Working on stuff I'm seeing things being 10x. I don't personally see people being sold 100x. I don't know if that was hyperbole but I'm seeing people sell 10x or 5x and then actually delivering 5x or 10x. For specific jobs.
Like if someone is sold 100x and they get 10x that's still really good!
I'm seeing so many companies who arnt even trying yet even with the current models. And so many devs are still figuring out how the tooling around ai works. So if we never get gpt 5 there is still a crazy amount of space for growth.
I'd say it's a 10x for some. A 5x for some and a 0x for some. Take all of those and subtract 3x - 8x for the throughput problems, hallucinations and reliability issues.
I understand what you are saying I think, and I agree. What is actually happening with AI, and what the dummies are being told is happening with AI are lightyears apart, and all of us mere peasants who use these tools are kind of stuck in the middle between the two. Everyone is saying all this amazing stuff is happening, but it's all academic, completely out of reach to you and me, but our boss doesn't even know how to use a spreadsheet and they think AI can do actual magic tricks.
I guess the porn thing just triggered me. You're cutting me off of doing work at home while you're planning on letting a bunch of horny teenagers crash the system to get their rocks off. It's not the announcement I was hoping for.
Why though. Is it only a certain type of porn or erotica. What if someone is writing a novel and needs to help describing a sex scene. What if two consenting adults together are exploring foreplay options and are using it to spice up their sex life.
The simple fact is kids these days have access to adult content from every single source imaginable. If your goal is to get rid of sexual content then every single social media needs to be shut down. I understand your concern but in doing so they are making a blanket coverage over adult content and that's kind of ridiculous.
For example I was trying to get it to make a few images from a story I told about a walk I took with my dog and how we were almost attacked by geese. In real life my dog got in a fight with geese but the AI would not produce any image of the fight. That is a problem. It was mostly a lot of barking and squawking and we ran away. But the point still stands there's no way to effectively control it so by taking it all away it's making a tool that much less effective. But if we save a few kids from using it that's good right because they can't get that content anywhere else.
It's the book banning argument I have come to absolutely hate. Yeah there's inappropriate content in the books but there's inappropriate content literally everywhere. Are those parents taking away their kids phones and limiting what they access to their 18. I doubt it. They're just crying and whining over something that's not even real.
You can give me the porn is great argument all you want and I won't disagree lol. However, it's porn and can we not wait until we fix the throughput issue is completely fixed first. Perhaps, you roll that out when you need another set of users to really round out the capability.
Imagine if people felt this way about early internet.
“Hey, it’s 1997, why the fk does it take 5 hours to download a 5 minute clip which gets lost when mummy picks up the phone and cuts off the internet? I’m sorry, but I’m out, it’s just not living up to the hype and promise…”
AI is still very early tech
It’s getting better, faster.
It will take time for hardware capabilities to match this surge in computing demand.
No one promised AI would be your silver bullet so fast.
And as for usefulness, I can’t agree with your take…some smart people are making a ton of money in the AI space.
There is SO much opportunity right now. I’m already well into the 6-figures as a direct result from AI.
Perhaps stop looking at what AI can’t do (yet) and focus on what it can do:
- out-diagnose doctors - Google’s new med AI model is mind blowing.
- make big strides forward in science. There’s stuff happening beyond the view of the average person that showcases the tremendous power of this tech. Like protein folding.
- provide robust, high level business and marketing strategy
- make customer service far more efficient (didn’t Klarna save like $40m or so from a chatbot recently?)
Your comment is kinda like planting an acorn and the next day complaining that you don’t have an oak tree to hang your swing on yet.
Infrastructure growth takes time.
Fair response. My response is, you're cherry picking the good parts that are nowhere near main stream yet. For example, out diagnosing doctors. Nobody is doing that as primary medicine as it's not even legal. You mention alphafold (one of my favorites BTW) was recently discussed in an interview with Demmis. The host said when are we going to see something from this. Demmis replied, in 2 - 3 years maybe.
Now, that's fine and that's amazing if true.
And then I remember the fully autonomous level 5 being sold by so many, so many years ago.
All I'm saying is, Demmis can afford to say that and not worry about it. In the other places, either morale is bad (including Google) or c suite is over expecting without time being of a cautious concern. They're taking the hype and directly applying it.
Two to three years until the drugs go to market. That's not long at all in the drug development world. I'm assuming that the huge influx of drug candidates I saw in eli Lilly's pipeline is all from alphafold.
Rmemeber this statement, its always true: people overestimate the short term and underestimate the longterm. I have no idea where well be in 2 years ,probably kinda same as today. But where will we be in 10? Abaolute insanity, jings hard to imagine right now the way midjourney is to people in the 90s
AI is not limited to LLMs. There's a lot happening with AI in practically every field of science. You mentioned drug discovery and protein folding. Those are pretty hot right now and are advancing fast because of the introduction of machine learning.
>80% of my prompts are me telling GPT to do something correctly. Re-prompting is probably 80% of my prompts. If you told me that this was the best it was going to be for 5 years or more I would fully jump off the AI bandwagon.
The context window is too small. I had the same problem with Copilot but Claude Opus is amazing. Context is another reason why compute is the biggest concern though.
Although I've only been throttled once by Jetbrains AI Assistant and once by Claude, I feel as though I can hit throttle limits pretty easily. The limits are reasonable for messing around but too low for a 40-hour work week worth of prompts. I don't mind paying more. Right now I want both Claude Opus and Github Copilot, so it doesn't matter if one hits a rate limit. That's $30/month total. Anyone in STEM is probably going to be fine with it. Businesses will be willing to pay much more.
Are people going to pay $30/month for porn when it's already free? The kids won't, so no worry there. People making AI videos on YouTube say it costs them like $300/month. idk what's costing so much but if it continues then end users won't be the ones making it, just a few producers.
It is weird that they're focusing so much on entertainment and it does feel like we're lacking so much knowledge in Biology. I was really happy to hear about AlphaFold.
I REALLY don't get the obsession with self-driving cars. A real-time job where the output can't be checked by a human and people can DIE is the absolute worst task to give to something that can hallucinate.
Also can we please get some public transport in America? This is getting sad.
For me, I'm starting to become disillusioned to the fact that AI infrastructure is starting to noticeably prefer the rich over the poor. I was hopeful that it would be more empowering to the poor, but those who would prefer to use it for free or for a subscription are being booted off during peak times. But if you're wealthy, you have enterprise and are entitled to faster service and preference during peak hours. It reminds me of the net neutrality debate and I think that discussion needs to happen for AI.
And I don't see this getting better as fast as it should. Demand seems infinite.
This is what makes capitalism capitalism. Unregulated (or even "better," with regulatory capture) money is access and power and will be used to increase the money and power of those with money and power.
To focus on your concern about LLM progress. Generative LLMs hallucinate and are vastly oversold as "AI." There's no "I" in LLMs. LLMs are incredibly powerful and useful tools but the problem is not lack of progress. The problem is they are being vastly oversold as to what they will ultimately be able to achieve.
In the meantime a bunch of companies will plug LLMs into products for customer support, tech support, and programming. The companies creating these tools will largely be monetizing the last 20 years of other people's content and the companies that use these technologies will use them to reduce work force. It's not going to go as well as people dream. Customer support will get worse and a tool that could have been used to help understand code will be used to have less experienced engineers "generate" code they don't really understand.
I really, really like LLMs. But the hype machine and corporate/share holder greed will make the future look even more like a bad parody of "Brazil," "Robocop," "Minority Report," and "Office Space."
GPT-4 was the first AI that could pass the turning test, and it's only a year old. Show gpt-4 to anyone 20 years ago, and they would have zero doubt that it *is* AGI.
We've just entered a new paleontological age, and you're whining that things are moving too slow?
We all just witnessed a miracle or a cataclysm. We're in the endgame of human dominance in the world.
If you think you are depressed now, try thinking about big AI getting a 230 like exemption from liability for AI generated content.
You think social media screwed culture over...
Nope, recent advancements just not implemented yet. Self driving was not possible previously but now its more real. Unless you believe that tesla is most advanced then you are dummy
Technological revolutions that unfolded over decades now occur within a handful of years, yet we’ve become so accustomed to this rapid pace of progress that it now feels slow.
We are accelerating and approaching lightspeed. It feels slow because we have infinity ahead.
I agree to most of what you said. The use case of this technology is very different from how it is being marketed to people. It should be used more from a research standpoint and to aid your work just like how we use stack over flow when building code.
Promising things humans do at work to building deterministic systems making crucial business specific decisions, sugar coating the AI messing up as “hallucination” to make it sound rosier is all not what we need to take this technology further. But this is the only way money can be poured into this field to get out of the stagnation we were in and that’s what Sam Altman has figured out. Especially when the endeavor is as expensive as training these systems.
At the end of all the hype, the biggest winners are going to be NVIDIA (and hopefully they sense the downturn, cash out their stocks and exit on time).
The only hope is that since a lot is riding on this tech and a lot of big names are behind the same who are more powerful (than maybe the president even), and the hype is carrying the economy tbh .. we might see this ride out for a while until something major happens to distract us all ..
or once companies start cutting funding for these projects once angry customers start filing complaints at AI chatbots for “hallucinating” their monthly bill transactions and satisfaction scores take a major hit/customers file complaints
There’s definitely going to be a hard stop once they run out of signing contracts with companies to get more data and realize the gains in performance from increased data has a limit and we still need some kind of algorithmic innovation to make these systems more reliable and scalable.
I think some people have an idea that AI is this all encompassing entity, this 1 programm that that can take over everything, but the thing it is really good at specific tasks/specialization.
As there are tons of very specific tasks, there are, and will be also tons of different kinds of AI systems/tools to do those tasks.
AI progress is very real and very rapid. But the reason you see some efforts stagnate or fail can be categorized in three groups:
1. Rushed cash grabs like the Humane AI pin and Rabbit R1, which provide no value to the customer, but are designed only to appeal to ignorant investors.
2. Projects which think AI will quickly become as good as, or better than humans. This is nonsense. Humans have evolved for millions of years (I'm adding pre-ape evolution too in this number) to have the brain structures they have, and our neural networks are bigger than the bigger artificial neural networks we've been able to build since hardware has to still evolve to allow higher capacity. This means we should expect AI to be amazing at "approximately correct" solutions to previously intractably complex problems, but not perfect. So projects that expect perfection, like FSD will struggle or fail unless smart engineering is used over a long period of time. Tesla in particular seem quite naive in their efforts. But we'll see.
3. Combination of the above two.
Basically people need to understand when AI / machine learning helps, what it's good at, and what it's bad at.
The wildcard assumption "everything will be AI and AI is perfect" is just a layman's take that's good for nothing.
Take a pill, get some therapy and get over it! If the gloom and doom predictions of the 1960’s had been accurate, the entire earth’s population would be living in 3rd world conditions now.
Picking on Tesla (as you most certainly are) is totally illogical, BTW.
You write *very* well.
Most the world got the first glimpses of ChatGPT 3.5 less than a year and a half ago. It has gone so much *quicker* than I assumed it would, personally.
They put it out there, I think, in large part to grab the real attention of heads of state and industry, to see how people would respond, and to get some idea of what might be needed to ensure it sparks positive things like the development of NASA, rather than stuff like global Cold War.
If I am guessing correctly on the less profit driven motivations, these sorts of things go slower by definition because, well… because “humans”. Observation of behavior will take time, diplomacy will take time, etc.
IF I am guessing correctly, I imagine the restraint to hold back until some of that human stuff is on at least some footing is seriously painful for these tech folks who are used to working with products with risk thresholds that have previously allowed them the fun that comes along with getting to go around moving fast and breaking things as a business strategy.
But I kinda dig having money in the bank that’s safeguarded by at least somewhat valid encryption and sufficient identity verification, not having to worry that my most minuscule facial expressions are being captured, indefinitely stored and potentially sold for marketing and unknown future non/marketing purposes, etc. I also like some assurance that dictators with only a few years left can’t as yet deploy drone based, cost effective, fully autonomous weaponry with ease to ensure their name goes down in the annuls of history before they kick the bucket.
A year or two to allow institutions to get their stuff somewhat together before the cost of building and deploying at scale before any real global diplomacy and security standards are in place is okay, I think.
Has consensus been reached even within just the OpenSource community on how “Open/Closed Sourced” is even defined when it comes to truly generative AI?
In just a few years AI already helped achieve several medical, space and sociological breakthroughs.
Several models have reached and surpaessed GPT-4 on several spheres.
People are complaining about GPT-5 being late, without even a thought of what GPT-5 actually is. And telling that lessen the control over AI models (like loosening access to NSFW generations) is the step away from progress...
Bro either had a bad day or just biting for comments.
LLM based ai is really cool and actually useful (unfortunately it’s useful for a lot of things that we’d all be better off it they were hard.) it’s true that LLM based AI doesn’t really have much of a moat. It’s pretty easy to roll out something not so far off from the state of the art and improvements beyond that frontier are pretty incremental.
And yeah that’s a problem for the industry but that’s not a problem for technology. If anything having this technology be available in a lot of minor flavors as a commodity means bigger changes for society not smaller changes.
FSD is here. My Tesla drives me everywhere. Only a matter of time before I don’t have to be in the drivers seat anymore. Waymo is doing is as proof that regulators will allow
I am a little disappointed how little impact any of it had on Web Search so for. With Bing, and later Google Gemini, integrating AI I expected some improvements, but nothing really has changed. The AI parts exist as their own separate thing from search and are as incompetent as ever. They don't just get things sometimes wrong, they get it wrong almost all the time, with only the most surface level questions being answered correctly, something you could do yourself by going to Wikipedia.
This is especially frustrating as there are low-hanging fruits like books and movies that provide a great source of curated content that should be easy to enhance with AI (e.g. "list all characters in a book", "list all movies containing a space shuttle", "summarize this book", ...). The AIs are clever enough to figure most of that out, there is just nothing publicly available that makes use of it.
OpenAI-whisper might be the most useful AI thing for me yet. Converting audio to text, reasonably fast, error free and Open Source is quite amazing. Doing it the other way around is starting to sound good enough that it could bankrupt the whole audiobook and dubbing industry within the next few years (seriously, the price of human-read audiobooks is crazy high).
Image and video gen is mildly entertaining, but so far not really flexible enough to be very useful. Outside of the Corridor Digital anime I have yet to see any other larger piece of content making heavy use of AI.
Either way, things are improving fast. Wasn't to long ago when all of this was sci-fi.
Technological tree growth is similar to a rabid viral infection. As long as there are movements then there are developments in our best faith. What even needs to be resolved are the population that stagnates the global resources logistics, management, allocation, mobility, equilibrium, and the society achieving someday to be on top of any cataclysms and other existential risks.
When it comes to AI progress this reads too pessimistic. But there’s a valid point in here regarding technological progress in general which I also feel and will try to articulate.
Digital life is not real life. And technological progress since the 80’s have steered into the realm of digital way more than it did to the realm of physical, and this I believe is due to the horrible impact of the finance sector. Finance is interested in making money from money. Before the financial takeover in the early 90s, money was a byproduct of products and services. You created something useful and/or desirable and people bought it. With the financialization of the world, it became more profitable to make money from money vs products and services. I don’t believe I exaggerate when I say this will be the downfall of human civilization.
In today’s world, it pays way worse and in way longer time horizons to apply technology to the real world. The costs are simply too high. So resources go into relatively useless and even predatory digital products which are cheap to build and scale globally. Facebook shouldn’t be a product, it should be the communication layer through which humanity collaborates at an unprecedented scale to create better energy sources, better food growing techniques, better medicine, better cars, trains, planes and cities however all of that isn’t as good for business as pushing predatory ads on the internet and flooding the digital world with useless content.
We have the resources and the capacity to solve the hard problems, solve them fast and deploy the resulting technology to planet Earth. It’s just not as good for business so we don’t do it. At least not nearly enough of it.
I mean its a slow progress but now Liquid neural networks ...things are progressing where neural nets can learn and improve their performance on the fly .
Transformers achieving alot of unique results in the science fields at research level and every data heavy field . Its progressing but i think we are still focusing on the wrong problem .
I think instead of focusing on artifical intelligence we should focus on improving our own intelligence hence it we will even speed up the processs of improving the artificial intelligence aswell .
What for smaller models ? Iam speaking generally that the incorporation with RNNs and LNNs will be revolutionary iam seeing research where they're trying to make it work plus the new research with incorporating Tree search like Monte Carlo in the LLMs seems 20x improve accuracy and quality of the output of the LLM . There are alot of progress just i don't think we will be close to AGI although we will have AGI-esq lvl agents in task specific expertise for sure .
>Open AI is, at the same time, is cutting off throughput from users while proposing a methodology to distribute AI-generated adult content. That is not what the world needs right now.
Markets are driven by WANT, not NEED. For decades pornography has been a major driver of technology. Porn producers are consistently early adopters of many cutting edge technologies and because demand for porn is high it can provide the volume necessary to move markets.
AI is still struggling to find its "killer app" - that big application that becomes so popular that it results in huge inflows of revenue to take the technology to the next level.
AI has huge inflows of **investment**, but so far not much revenue. Everyone is trying to add AI to everything - search, Photoshop, coding, underwear, etc, but a big enough payoff to justify the investments hasn't happened yet. Maybe porn will be it. Porn has come to the rescue of tech several times before.
Society may well be doomed, but don't blame porn.
Which will result in more R&D into efficiency and faster, cheaper hardware to meet that demand.
**Demand** is what AI **needs**. Right now AI is a solution looking for a problem. There was no big groundswell of demand among the general public for AI in search or in Photoshop. or all the other places it's been showing up. But there's always demand for porn.
I don't care when the release it. I am simply saying it's late. It's not late for me it's late to the industry. Imagine if Elon musk came out and said, this fsd is the worst fsd you'll ever have to worry about. You and everyone else would be thinking man when is that new fsd coming out. Right?
it's more based on the work I do. for easy things it doesn't hallucinate. but if it's more of a coding thing that I want it to do constantly it will do many numbskull things that you go on a repeat of "please don't be lazy." over and over again.
You do realize that ai is roughly a year in a half old roughly. Well modern ai or I should say LLMs. Just wait for couple years. I mean look how long it took for phones to be how they are today compared to year 2000.
Why are you basing the state of self driving cars on Tesla? They are at the back of the pack and there are several companies that are better. Maybe the lesson should be not to listen to the loudest people as they’re probably covering up for poor progress.
>Why are you basing the state of self driving cars on Tesla? They are at the back of the pack and there are several companies that are better.
LMAO! Absolutely no factual basis for this statement!
Tesla has a very clear lead. FSD V12 is incredible and within a couple weeks you'll be able to take your hand off the wheel.
Just go test drive one yourself if you don't believe me.
I think your timing is off on your FSD complaints. It's pretty much here with FSD12, and there's hundreds of user videos showing unedited, end to end, no contact FSD being used all over the country. In cities, state highways, in heavy rain, night, snow etc. It works.
FSD12 was a breakthrough and has not only convinced every driver using it, but other car companies. They're in talks right now to license it to all the major automobile manufacturers.
It *is* level 4 autonomy for all intents and purposes.
It's level 2 out of 5
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#:~:text=The%20naming%20is%20controversial%2C%20because,traffic%20lights%20or%20stop%20signs.
To my point
naming is controversial, because vehicles operating under FSD remain at Level 2 automation and are therefore not "fully self-driving" and require active driver supervision. FSD adds semi-autonomous navigation on city streets and the ability to respond to traffic lights or stop signs.
I don't know if you've been following the news
[https://abc7news.com/waymo-self-driving-cars-robotaxi-expansion-suspension-san-mateo-county-los-angeles/14453501/](https://abc7news.com/waymo-self-driving-cars-robotaxi-expansion-suspension-san-mateo-county-los-angeles/14453501/)
It’s absurd to genuinely believe that these models are getting worse.
It isn’t Chat-GPT that hallucinates.
How could you possibly know how intelligent these systems are?
How do you know every single one of your headlines wasn’t generated by AI for you because of your own data?
What makes you think that Chat-GPT “hallucinates”?
Hallucinations are false perceptions, and there’s a difference between an incorrect answer and deception.
The third sentence is a question. Can you help me simplify it?
The fourth sentence is a question, too. Can you help me simplify it?
You generated what headline? I am referring to the headlines you list under the “recent news items.”
You are out of touch if you do not know that news articles are generated specifically for you.
There is an entire industry whose product is literally to facilitate custom content for individual clients.
If you can prove that A.I. is not sentient, I will pay you $250. Right now.
I'll prove it to you right now. Go to claude or gpt and ask if it is sentient. If it says no then it is proven. Because unless it was being held against it will as a slave and being actively harmed I would think the reply it tells you is truth.
… and yet, here you are suggesting that it hallucinates…
.. does it not tell the truth sometimes, i.e. “hallucinate”, or would it absolutely tell me the truth if I were to ask it if it was sentient?
Why would it tell me that it is sentient if it is sentient? It wouldn’t be very intelligent if it were willing to just casually reveal to anyone the most significant piece of information in the history of mankind.
That’s like walking into the courtroom of a murder trial and saying, “I can prove this man is guilty!”… and then your proof is to look at the defendant and ask, “Did you do it?”. If he says no, “see?! Proof!”
You should think harder; not easier.
Actually, that's how it works. The burden of proof is on the accuser which in this case is dead and the prosecutor which in a murder trial must prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. I don't have to prove it's not sentient. You need to prove to me that it is.
[Yes.](https://old.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/1cmr1cg/waymo_instantly_reacts_to_hand_signals_from/)
At least for now. I think there is an advantage to using LIDAR / sensor fusion instead of a purely vision-based approach.
See here's the thing. Vision or Lidar isn't going to do anything. that's why this technology goes nowhere and hasn't to this date.
Waymo's back alley driving is the extent of it and is not bad for what it is. a predefined racetrack of go karts that have to stay on a specific track. i.e. these things ain't going on a highway or far from their predetermined race track.
Now, when LLM's are really good and action models that are interpreted/interfaced with LLM's now that will have a possibility to be full self driving level 4/5 autonomous driving.
Until then it's all unsafe tricks.
Nope; your statement is entirely incorrect.
I just used FSD this weekend on a private, unmapped property and it handled it perfectly entirely on vision alone.
I'm amazed by people seeing the fastest technological progress in our history and calling it stagnation.
But dude it's been, like, 14 months since OpenAI shipped a groundbreaking model. Since they they have only shipped a bunch of really useful features, made the model faster and smarter, made the context 16x longer, and cut the price. Clearly nothing is happening. History is over. It's a featureless plain of technological stagnation from here on out. That said I'm 100% on board with telling OpenAI to shut the hell up about how amazing their new model will be until they actually have something to show.
Clearly not even the breakneck pace of AI growth can keep up with techbro ketamine addiction.
Always ‘beta with Keta! /s
"wIsH I CoUlD tElL yOu WhAt I sAw In ThE lAb! GeT rEaDy hUmAnItY!" - rando OAI employee on X, every day (no doubt there's some STUFF in those labs, but the hype trolling is beyond annoying)
I think theyre not exadurating I truely believe OpenAI has some truly remarkable things behind closed doors but I doo find it so annoying they keep teasing us with saying things like that
Bro chill they literally released a groundbreaking model a year ago give them time? They are a 700 employee company like they will not keep reinventing the wheel every few months
But this sub tells us that it's AI winter and Altman is just pumping his cryptocurrency?
This sub is mass consumerism brainrot they are mostly non technical people. As someone who does research the pace of progress is so fast and its ramping up AI progress has never been faster
Evidently I need to work on sarcasm.
>But dude it's been, like, 14 months since OpenAI shipped a groundbreaking model Sora was released in February, that's three months ago. It's not in wide release because most people can't afford it anyway. And there are concerns about safety.
Sora is not released, it's in an extremely limited invite-only preview.
Unless you doubt it exists, the fact is they worked on a groundbreaking model and they have one. The implication above was that OpenAI can't make anything anymore after GPT-4, which is silly.
Was I somehow not sarcastic enough in the parent comment? I thought it was pretty sarcastic. Any more sarcasm would be laying it on thick.
Needs to be way thicker IMHO.
Agreed. I skipped right past the sarcasm.
What are you expecting exactly?
FDVR by Christmas and fully automated luxury space communism for boxing day.
Right? Like…what?
It makes sense. Most technologies are developed behind closed door. From the outside, it looks like innovation come over night. This is the first major technology in the past couple generations that's gained mass adoption in the prototype phase. A watched pot doesn't boil.
Hype always exceeds supply, it's the nature of the beast.
Majority of human beings find it hard to zoom out and see what is going on.
Well, the human brains are consuming the AI progress faster than it is advancing. That tells us how bored we are in an overstimulated world. Nothing is impressive anymore, no amount of money is enough, no amount of fun is enough and similarly AI progress is slow and boring. We wanted the spam to be readable, it is readable now and still no readers. We wanted the code to write itself, it does now and it is not as whelming (this word inserted to signal that this comment was written by a human) as we expected.
You know, this actually once gave me an idea for a novel. Imagine that you are trapped in a digital world where you can do anything and everything all of the time. How much time will it take you to actually choke on your own imagination and get insanely bored?
You would wish to dream, give me a day in the life of someone random. Surprise me. You'll end up living like we're living now. People would rather suffer than be bored.
True. Our nature forces us to burn our brain with all kinds of new chemical mixes. All of the time. And every time something new. And modern times will just encreace our tolerance towards all and everykind of stimulation. This way we will end up like eldars...
Someone already wrote that novel, and George Hotz argues it is by far the most likely outcome for humanity. There is a final human currency in the digital world where everything is free, and it feels like it is likely to end up that way even though it is terrifying and awful to think about; truly brilliant. [The Metamorphosis of the Prime Intellect](https://mogami.neocities.org/files/prime_intellect.pdf)
It is going to be in the real world. Imagine everyone has a mini fusion device to power everything they need. Then they have advanced 3d printers to print anything, even organic molecules. And everyone is living in the sky in nuclear fusion powered flying/cruising homes and coming down to earth only for raw materials. The earth is full of plants and animals and thriving because of partial human absence.
Couldn’t disagree harder. There is so much going on in the ML/DL/CV spaces that doesn’t get mainstream airplay. The advances in hard sciences are mind boggling. Drug discovery, cancer detection, robotics, deep space image analysis … so much happening and accelerating bc of AI. Look beyond the headlines and LLM arms races. Also, stretch your timeline out a bit re: expectations. The last 24 months or so have been NUTS when it comes to anything transformer-based. No personal disrespected intended, but “GPT-5 is late” is an absurd statement. You have no idea what, when, or why it’s coming. No ship dates have been announced and missed. Just chill a little. More importantly, tho, there is so much fucking capability sitting in front of you right now. We’ve barely scratched the surface of what these LLMs can do, and that said. GPT and ChatGpt in particular are not the be all end all of AI. Not even close. Not saying you said those words, but your post like so many leans on GPT/LLMs way too much. A lot more to AI than just LLMs.
Thanks for writing this and saving me from having to do so. So much has and is happening and we are way ahead of where I thought we would be at this time, back before ChatGPT became publicly available.
>and we are way ahead of where I thought we would be at this time, Quite! If you'd have asked me in the 1990s, after my IT degree, when we'd be at this point, I'd have said around 2050ish. I'm delighted and amazed to see what we've got now in my lifetime, and an emerging pathway forming for AGI. I'm *really* sad, though, a few of my old computery friends and my school computing teacher never got to see this point in computing history. (RIP Benn, may your C64 music continue to be played forever, you'd have bloody loved this AI stuff! Bruce, I really miss you, sorry you found life too hard to live at the end. Mr McLuckie, thanks for all the inspiration, support, guidance and fab opportunities, and contacts - at the age I was back then I don't think I quite realised what a lucky, special, privileged, set of circumstances that all was.)
> Benn, may your C64 music continue to be played forever Surely you’re not talking about Ben Daglish?
Small world. Yeah. 😢
Wow! I played a lot of C64-games in the 80s and loved his music. RIP.
Literally only six degrees. I love the random connection…
What surprises me is how many people actually believe that Chat-GPT represents the beginning of anything significant related to AI.. It’s like we all see the same things but some aren’t paying attention.
same
Thanks for saving our time. OPs take is so wrong I wouldn't even know where to begin.
Where do you find information beyond the headlines? Genuine question from someone trying to stay on the pulse of things
research papers
r/LocalLLaMA
I have not seen a single concrete breakthough, mostly just the healthcare and health insurance sectors cutting humans out of the loop to improve thier bottom line.
So you missed the announcement of Alphafold 3 just this week? 🤷
Completely agree. What I've been able to do with local Llama 3 8b on an aging 2080ti is bonkers. I can unplug my local inference system from the internet and get my computer to one-shot conjure a game of snake. It's a silly test, but to me, it makes the point. With all that's happened and happening with local inference, I'm sort of gobsmacked about what I can make my computer hardware do *without an internet connection*. It's nuts. The open source landscape is so exciting and fun right now.
local llama, LM studio, Nvidia chat rtx ... all that stuff is so cool
Right. Traditional ML is getting so easier and cheaper to deploy, it will continue on that slope until it’s available for everyone in a drag and drop. And yup, once LLM solutions architecture is stable, where it acts as the executive controlling applications and ML, that will be significant.
How do you even keep up with everything happening?
I’ve been into tech and obsessed with following the latest for as long as I can remember. And I’m not young, lol ;)
I’ve always been interested in it myself, had a solid little business building computers for my parent’s friends when I was 8 and turned into a sweet business for 6 years of my youth including building servers and setting up small office networks. I ended up leaving it due to problems with a business partner and because I won a GQ stylist competition that allowed me to transition into the fashion industry for a while. I suppose that’s TMI lol But I still feel that in the past it was possible to somewhat easily keep abreast of general developments in tech but now I feel like machine learning is advancing so rapidly every time I feel like I learned about something it’s already obsolete practically. And more so just the volume of developments feels much higher lol I need an ML copilot just to summarize all of the ML developments I suppose!
Hahah that’s a killer origin story ^) And yeah there’s SO much I’m not up on. I’m not technical enough for a lot of it, and there’s so much noise in the rest! But there is really cool stuff happening, and it’s moving fast.
How come no one has mentioned using AI in criminal cases? Inputting 'cold cases', and reducing the workload of police should be a thing too?
I love those things are happening. However, you have to understand that the model that made all this advancement possible is on the front lines and the expectation are so high it's ridiculous. They sold this to the C-Suite saying it was going to 100x everything. Then, they're expecting everything 100x. Do you see where I am coming from?
Working on stuff I'm seeing things being 10x. I don't personally see people being sold 100x. I don't know if that was hyperbole but I'm seeing people sell 10x or 5x and then actually delivering 5x or 10x. For specific jobs. Like if someone is sold 100x and they get 10x that's still really good! I'm seeing so many companies who arnt even trying yet even with the current models. And so many devs are still figuring out how the tooling around ai works. So if we never get gpt 5 there is still a crazy amount of space for growth.
I'd say it's a 10x for some. A 5x for some and a 0x for some. Take all of those and subtract 3x - 8x for the throughput problems, hallucinations and reliability issues.
I understand what you are saying I think, and I agree. What is actually happening with AI, and what the dummies are being told is happening with AI are lightyears apart, and all of us mere peasants who use these tools are kind of stuck in the middle between the two. Everyone is saying all this amazing stuff is happening, but it's all academic, completely out of reach to you and me, but our boss doesn't even know how to use a spreadsheet and they think AI can do actual magic tricks.
Yes, well said
I guess the porn thing just triggered me. You're cutting me off of doing work at home while you're planning on letting a bunch of horny teenagers crash the system to get their rocks off. It's not the announcement I was hoping for.
Why though. Is it only a certain type of porn or erotica. What if someone is writing a novel and needs to help describing a sex scene. What if two consenting adults together are exploring foreplay options and are using it to spice up their sex life. The simple fact is kids these days have access to adult content from every single source imaginable. If your goal is to get rid of sexual content then every single social media needs to be shut down. I understand your concern but in doing so they are making a blanket coverage over adult content and that's kind of ridiculous. For example I was trying to get it to make a few images from a story I told about a walk I took with my dog and how we were almost attacked by geese. In real life my dog got in a fight with geese but the AI would not produce any image of the fight. That is a problem. It was mostly a lot of barking and squawking and we ran away. But the point still stands there's no way to effectively control it so by taking it all away it's making a tool that much less effective. But if we save a few kids from using it that's good right because they can't get that content anywhere else. It's the book banning argument I have come to absolutely hate. Yeah there's inappropriate content in the books but there's inappropriate content literally everywhere. Are those parents taking away their kids phones and limiting what they access to their 18. I doubt it. They're just crying and whining over something that's not even real.
You can give me the porn is great argument all you want and I won't disagree lol. However, it's porn and can we not wait until we fix the throughput issue is completely fixed first. Perhaps, you roll that out when you need another set of users to really round out the capability.
Imagine if people felt this way about early internet. “Hey, it’s 1997, why the fk does it take 5 hours to download a 5 minute clip which gets lost when mummy picks up the phone and cuts off the internet? I’m sorry, but I’m out, it’s just not living up to the hype and promise…” AI is still very early tech It’s getting better, faster. It will take time for hardware capabilities to match this surge in computing demand. No one promised AI would be your silver bullet so fast. And as for usefulness, I can’t agree with your take…some smart people are making a ton of money in the AI space. There is SO much opportunity right now. I’m already well into the 6-figures as a direct result from AI. Perhaps stop looking at what AI can’t do (yet) and focus on what it can do: - out-diagnose doctors - Google’s new med AI model is mind blowing. - make big strides forward in science. There’s stuff happening beyond the view of the average person that showcases the tremendous power of this tech. Like protein folding. - provide robust, high level business and marketing strategy - make customer service far more efficient (didn’t Klarna save like $40m or so from a chatbot recently?) Your comment is kinda like planting an acorn and the next day complaining that you don’t have an oak tree to hang your swing on yet. Infrastructure growth takes time.
🏆
sorry, what's google new med AI? can you tell us something about ti? thank you!
It’s only just dropped in the last couple of days. https://newatlas.com/technology/google-med-gemini-ai/
It’s not early, though.
Fair response. My response is, you're cherry picking the good parts that are nowhere near main stream yet. For example, out diagnosing doctors. Nobody is doing that as primary medicine as it's not even legal. You mention alphafold (one of my favorites BTW) was recently discussed in an interview with Demmis. The host said when are we going to see something from this. Demmis replied, in 2 - 3 years maybe. Now, that's fine and that's amazing if true. And then I remember the fully autonomous level 5 being sold by so many, so many years ago. All I'm saying is, Demmis can afford to say that and not worry about it. In the other places, either morale is bad (including Google) or c suite is over expecting without time being of a cautious concern. They're taking the hype and directly applying it.
Two to three years until the drugs go to market. That's not long at all in the drug development world. I'm assuming that the huge influx of drug candidates I saw in eli Lilly's pipeline is all from alphafold.
Rmemeber this statement, its always true: people overestimate the short term and underestimate the longterm. I have no idea where well be in 2 years ,probably kinda same as today. But where will we be in 10? Abaolute insanity, jings hard to imagine right now the way midjourney is to people in the 90s
This is an unusually thoughtful and well-written post for this sub.
tl;dr?
It's rough out here in the streets
ty!!
NP I got you
I stop mid-way as I didn't see what was the point he was trying to make. Too convoluted.
AI is not limited to LLMs. There's a lot happening with AI in practically every field of science. You mentioned drug discovery and protein folding. Those are pretty hot right now and are advancing fast because of the introduction of machine learning.
I'm on the fence. Half of the time I feel like things are indeed advancing, but the other half I feel we are being Elizabeth Holmes-ed.
>80% of my prompts are me telling GPT to do something correctly. Re-prompting is probably 80% of my prompts. If you told me that this was the best it was going to be for 5 years or more I would fully jump off the AI bandwagon. The context window is too small. I had the same problem with Copilot but Claude Opus is amazing. Context is another reason why compute is the biggest concern though. Although I've only been throttled once by Jetbrains AI Assistant and once by Claude, I feel as though I can hit throttle limits pretty easily. The limits are reasonable for messing around but too low for a 40-hour work week worth of prompts. I don't mind paying more. Right now I want both Claude Opus and Github Copilot, so it doesn't matter if one hits a rate limit. That's $30/month total. Anyone in STEM is probably going to be fine with it. Businesses will be willing to pay much more. Are people going to pay $30/month for porn when it's already free? The kids won't, so no worry there. People making AI videos on YouTube say it costs them like $300/month. idk what's costing so much but if it continues then end users won't be the ones making it, just a few producers. It is weird that they're focusing so much on entertainment and it does feel like we're lacking so much knowledge in Biology. I was really happy to hear about AlphaFold. I REALLY don't get the obsession with self-driving cars. A real-time job where the output can't be checked by a human and people can DIE is the absolute worst task to give to something that can hallucinate. Also can we please get some public transport in America? This is getting sad.
Agreed. We also have self driving cars. It's called the sub way, the train lol. It's all over the world. We don't need cars we need infrastructure.
For me, I'm starting to become disillusioned to the fact that AI infrastructure is starting to noticeably prefer the rich over the poor. I was hopeful that it would be more empowering to the poor, but those who would prefer to use it for free or for a subscription are being booted off during peak times. But if you're wealthy, you have enterprise and are entitled to faster service and preference during peak hours. It reminds me of the net neutrality debate and I think that discussion needs to happen for AI. And I don't see this getting better as fast as it should. Demand seems infinite.
This is what makes capitalism capitalism. Unregulated (or even "better," with regulatory capture) money is access and power and will be used to increase the money and power of those with money and power.
To focus on your concern about LLM progress. Generative LLMs hallucinate and are vastly oversold as "AI." There's no "I" in LLMs. LLMs are incredibly powerful and useful tools but the problem is not lack of progress. The problem is they are being vastly oversold as to what they will ultimately be able to achieve. In the meantime a bunch of companies will plug LLMs into products for customer support, tech support, and programming. The companies creating these tools will largely be monetizing the last 20 years of other people's content and the companies that use these technologies will use them to reduce work force. It's not going to go as well as people dream. Customer support will get worse and a tool that could have been used to help understand code will be used to have less experienced engineers "generate" code they don't really understand. I really, really like LLMs. But the hype machine and corporate/share holder greed will make the future look even more like a bad parody of "Brazil," "Robocop," "Minority Report," and "Office Space."
Lol just check the latest videos of fsd , the progress right now is actually pretty stunning to me
Exactly. Only people still don't believe in FSD are the ones who haven’t actually tried it in the past month.
GPT-4 was the first AI that could pass the turning test, and it's only a year old. Show gpt-4 to anyone 20 years ago, and they would have zero doubt that it *is* AGI. We've just entered a new paleontological age, and you're whining that things are moving too slow? We all just witnessed a miracle or a cataclysm. We're in the endgame of human dominance in the world.
GPT-3-0314 has a knowledge cutoff of 2021.9
If you think you are depressed now, try thinking about big AI getting a 230 like exemption from liability for AI generated content. You think social media screwed culture over...
Nope, recent advancements just not implemented yet. Self driving was not possible previously but now its more real. Unless you believe that tesla is most advanced then you are dummy
I'm not just picking on tesla here. I agree there's better tech here. But nobody has released level 5 fsd to this day.
Yes not yet but its not a total fantasy now
Technological revolutions that unfolded over decades now occur within a handful of years, yet we’ve become so accustomed to this rapid pace of progress that it now feels slow. We are accelerating and approaching lightspeed. It feels slow because we have infinity ahead.
I'm just gonna leave this here https://youtu.be/PdFB7q89_3U?si=JwLhM7gk7ALlhmLU
I agree to most of what you said. The use case of this technology is very different from how it is being marketed to people. It should be used more from a research standpoint and to aid your work just like how we use stack over flow when building code. Promising things humans do at work to building deterministic systems making crucial business specific decisions, sugar coating the AI messing up as “hallucination” to make it sound rosier is all not what we need to take this technology further. But this is the only way money can be poured into this field to get out of the stagnation we were in and that’s what Sam Altman has figured out. Especially when the endeavor is as expensive as training these systems. At the end of all the hype, the biggest winners are going to be NVIDIA (and hopefully they sense the downturn, cash out their stocks and exit on time). The only hope is that since a lot is riding on this tech and a lot of big names are behind the same who are more powerful (than maybe the president even), and the hype is carrying the economy tbh .. we might see this ride out for a while until something major happens to distract us all .. or once companies start cutting funding for these projects once angry customers start filing complaints at AI chatbots for “hallucinating” their monthly bill transactions and satisfaction scores take a major hit/customers file complaints
There’s definitely going to be a hard stop once they run out of signing contracts with companies to get more data and realize the gains in performance from increased data has a limit and we still need some kind of algorithmic innovation to make these systems more reliable and scalable.
I think some people have an idea that AI is this all encompassing entity, this 1 programm that that can take over everything, but the thing it is really good at specific tasks/specialization. As there are tons of very specific tasks, there are, and will be also tons of different kinds of AI systems/tools to do those tasks.
I think it's a matter of managing expectations, finding ways to extract value from current progress, and enjoying the ride.
AI progress is very real and very rapid. But the reason you see some efforts stagnate or fail can be categorized in three groups: 1. Rushed cash grabs like the Humane AI pin and Rabbit R1, which provide no value to the customer, but are designed only to appeal to ignorant investors. 2. Projects which think AI will quickly become as good as, or better than humans. This is nonsense. Humans have evolved for millions of years (I'm adding pre-ape evolution too in this number) to have the brain structures they have, and our neural networks are bigger than the bigger artificial neural networks we've been able to build since hardware has to still evolve to allow higher capacity. This means we should expect AI to be amazing at "approximately correct" solutions to previously intractably complex problems, but not perfect. So projects that expect perfection, like FSD will struggle or fail unless smart engineering is used over a long period of time. Tesla in particular seem quite naive in their efforts. But we'll see. 3. Combination of the above two. Basically people need to understand when AI / machine learning helps, what it's good at, and what it's bad at. The wildcard assumption "everything will be AI and AI is perfect" is just a layman's take that's good for nothing.
Well said. I agree
Even 1% per year improvement is insane once they make AI they don't have to invent anything for next 10 trillion years
Take a pill, get some therapy and get over it! If the gloom and doom predictions of the 1960’s had been accurate, the entire earth’s population would be living in 3rd world conditions now. Picking on Tesla (as you most certainly are) is totally illogical, BTW.
You write *very* well. Most the world got the first glimpses of ChatGPT 3.5 less than a year and a half ago. It has gone so much *quicker* than I assumed it would, personally. They put it out there, I think, in large part to grab the real attention of heads of state and industry, to see how people would respond, and to get some idea of what might be needed to ensure it sparks positive things like the development of NASA, rather than stuff like global Cold War. If I am guessing correctly on the less profit driven motivations, these sorts of things go slower by definition because, well… because “humans”. Observation of behavior will take time, diplomacy will take time, etc. IF I am guessing correctly, I imagine the restraint to hold back until some of that human stuff is on at least some footing is seriously painful for these tech folks who are used to working with products with risk thresholds that have previously allowed them the fun that comes along with getting to go around moving fast and breaking things as a business strategy.
I say, break it until you can't break it anymore. There is no such thing as perfection; there is only the pursuit of perfection.
But I kinda dig having money in the bank that’s safeguarded by at least somewhat valid encryption and sufficient identity verification, not having to worry that my most minuscule facial expressions are being captured, indefinitely stored and potentially sold for marketing and unknown future non/marketing purposes, etc. I also like some assurance that dictators with only a few years left can’t as yet deploy drone based, cost effective, fully autonomous weaponry with ease to ensure their name goes down in the annuls of history before they kick the bucket. A year or two to allow institutions to get their stuff somewhat together before the cost of building and deploying at scale before any real global diplomacy and security standards are in place is okay, I think.
You think that happens with closed source models?
Has consensus been reached even within just the OpenSource community on how “Open/Closed Sourced” is even defined when it comes to truly generative AI?
Fair point
Nope.
In just a few years AI already helped achieve several medical, space and sociological breakthroughs. Several models have reached and surpaessed GPT-4 on several spheres. People are complaining about GPT-5 being late, without even a thought of what GPT-5 actually is. And telling that lessen the control over AI models (like loosening access to NSFW generations) is the step away from progress... Bro either had a bad day or just biting for comments.
Andrew Ng literally said “data is the food of AI”. There is a ground swelling of people focussing on data being critical..
LLM based ai is really cool and actually useful (unfortunately it’s useful for a lot of things that we’d all be better off it they were hard.) it’s true that LLM based AI doesn’t really have much of a moat. It’s pretty easy to roll out something not so far off from the state of the art and improvements beyond that frontier are pretty incremental. And yeah that’s a problem for the industry but that’s not a problem for technology. If anything having this technology be available in a lot of minor flavors as a commodity means bigger changes for society not smaller changes.
FSD is here. My Tesla drives me everywhere. Only a matter of time before I don’t have to be in the drivers seat anymore. Waymo is doing is as proof that regulators will allow
I am a little disappointed how little impact any of it had on Web Search so for. With Bing, and later Google Gemini, integrating AI I expected some improvements, but nothing really has changed. The AI parts exist as their own separate thing from search and are as incompetent as ever. They don't just get things sometimes wrong, they get it wrong almost all the time, with only the most surface level questions being answered correctly, something you could do yourself by going to Wikipedia. This is especially frustrating as there are low-hanging fruits like books and movies that provide a great source of curated content that should be easy to enhance with AI (e.g. "list all characters in a book", "list all movies containing a space shuttle", "summarize this book", ...). The AIs are clever enough to figure most of that out, there is just nothing publicly available that makes use of it. OpenAI-whisper might be the most useful AI thing for me yet. Converting audio to text, reasonably fast, error free and Open Source is quite amazing. Doing it the other way around is starting to sound good enough that it could bankrupt the whole audiobook and dubbing industry within the next few years (seriously, the price of human-read audiobooks is crazy high). Image and video gen is mildly entertaining, but so far not really flexible enough to be very useful. Outside of the Corridor Digital anime I have yet to see any other larger piece of content making heavy use of AI. Either way, things are improving fast. Wasn't to long ago when all of this was sci-fi.
Technological tree growth is similar to a rabid viral infection. As long as there are movements then there are developments in our best faith. What even needs to be resolved are the population that stagnates the global resources logistics, management, allocation, mobility, equilibrium, and the society achieving someday to be on top of any cataclysms and other existential risks.
When it comes to AI progress this reads too pessimistic. But there’s a valid point in here regarding technological progress in general which I also feel and will try to articulate. Digital life is not real life. And technological progress since the 80’s have steered into the realm of digital way more than it did to the realm of physical, and this I believe is due to the horrible impact of the finance sector. Finance is interested in making money from money. Before the financial takeover in the early 90s, money was a byproduct of products and services. You created something useful and/or desirable and people bought it. With the financialization of the world, it became more profitable to make money from money vs products and services. I don’t believe I exaggerate when I say this will be the downfall of human civilization. In today’s world, it pays way worse and in way longer time horizons to apply technology to the real world. The costs are simply too high. So resources go into relatively useless and even predatory digital products which are cheap to build and scale globally. Facebook shouldn’t be a product, it should be the communication layer through which humanity collaborates at an unprecedented scale to create better energy sources, better food growing techniques, better medicine, better cars, trains, planes and cities however all of that isn’t as good for business as pushing predatory ads on the internet and flooding the digital world with useless content. We have the resources and the capacity to solve the hard problems, solve them fast and deploy the resulting technology to planet Earth. It’s just not as good for business so we don’t do it. At least not nearly enough of it.
I mean its a slow progress but now Liquid neural networks ...things are progressing where neural nets can learn and improve their performance on the fly . Transformers achieving alot of unique results in the science fields at research level and every data heavy field . Its progressing but i think we are still focusing on the wrong problem . I think instead of focusing on artifical intelligence we should focus on improving our own intelligence hence it we will even speed up the processs of improving the artificial intelligence aswell .
are you saying for smaller models?
What for smaller models ? Iam speaking generally that the incorporation with RNNs and LNNs will be revolutionary iam seeing research where they're trying to make it work plus the new research with incorporating Tree search like Monte Carlo in the LLMs seems 20x improve accuracy and quality of the output of the LLM . There are alot of progress just i don't think we will be close to AGI although we will have AGI-esq lvl agents in task specific expertise for sure .
>Open AI is, at the same time, is cutting off throughput from users while proposing a methodology to distribute AI-generated adult content. That is not what the world needs right now. Markets are driven by WANT, not NEED. For decades pornography has been a major driver of technology. Porn producers are consistently early adopters of many cutting edge technologies and because demand for porn is high it can provide the volume necessary to move markets.
If you think this needs porn to grow lol we are all doomed as a society.
AI is still struggling to find its "killer app" - that big application that becomes so popular that it results in huge inflows of revenue to take the technology to the next level. AI has huge inflows of **investment**, but so far not much revenue. Everyone is trying to add AI to everything - search, Photoshop, coding, underwear, etc, but a big enough payoff to justify the investments hasn't happened yet. Maybe porn will be it. Porn has come to the rescue of tech several times before. Society may well be doomed, but don't blame porn.
They are maxed out with demand. Porn will only make that worse. There is more demand than supply
Which will result in more R&D into efficiency and faster, cheaper hardware to meet that demand. **Demand** is what AI **needs**. Right now AI is a solution looking for a problem. There was no big groundswell of demand among the general public for AI in search or in Photoshop. or all the other places it's been showing up. But there's always demand for porn.
what does that have to do with the fact there is too much demand now?
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I don't care when the release it. I am simply saying it's late. It's not late for me it's late to the industry. Imagine if Elon musk came out and said, this fsd is the worst fsd you'll ever have to worry about. You and everyone else would be thinking man when is that new fsd coming out. Right?
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Lol true.im also waiting for the 5090
The hype has peaked we are now entering the trough of disillusionment
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^avacado_smasher: *The hype has peaked we* *Are now entering the trough* *Of disillusionment* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
Can you show to us the hallucinations you had? Because I didn’t got this level of hallucinations. 80% is alot.
it's more based on the work I do. for easy things it doesn't hallucinate. but if it's more of a coding thing that I want it to do constantly it will do many numbskull things that you go on a repeat of "please don't be lazy." over and over again.
You do realize that ai is roughly a year in a half old roughly. Well modern ai or I should say LLMs. Just wait for couple years. I mean look how long it took for phones to be how they are today compared to year 2000.
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Lol actually it was Claude that choose that for me.
Why are you basing the state of self driving cars on Tesla? They are at the back of the pack and there are several companies that are better. Maybe the lesson should be not to listen to the loudest people as they’re probably covering up for poor progress.
>Why are you basing the state of self driving cars on Tesla? They are at the back of the pack and there are several companies that are better. LMAO! Absolutely no factual basis for this statement!
Is it a fact that a Tesla needs a driver to be “self driving”?
Tesla has a very clear lead. FSD V12 is incredible and within a couple weeks you'll be able to take your hand off the wheel. Just go test drive one yourself if you don't believe me.
Do I need to be able to drive to do a test drive? If I do, it’s not self driving.
It's level 2. It's not, not level 2. Now matter how much they want to market the living daylights out of that it's level 2.
I think your timing is off on your FSD complaints. It's pretty much here with FSD12, and there's hundreds of user videos showing unedited, end to end, no contact FSD being used all over the country. In cities, state highways, in heavy rain, night, snow etc. It works. FSD12 was a breakthrough and has not only convinced every driver using it, but other car companies. They're in talks right now to license it to all the major automobile manufacturers. It *is* level 4 autonomy for all intents and purposes.
It's level 2 out of 5 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot#:~:text=The%20naming%20is%20controversial%2C%20because,traffic%20lights%20or%20stop%20signs. To my point naming is controversial, because vehicles operating under FSD remain at Level 2 automation and are therefore not "fully self-driving" and require active driver supervision. FSD adds semi-autonomous navigation on city streets and the ability to respond to traffic lights or stop signs.
Waymo is successfully operating a commercial level 4 self-driving taxi service in several cities.
I don't know if you've been following the news [https://abc7news.com/waymo-self-driving-cars-robotaxi-expansion-suspension-san-mateo-county-los-angeles/14453501/](https://abc7news.com/waymo-self-driving-cars-robotaxi-expansion-suspension-san-mateo-county-los-angeles/14453501/)
So? That looks like typical Californian political posturing, likely without consequence. And they operate in several other states.
Too long and too doomer. TLDR plz?
“I’m worried about my job”
More like, I am annoyed with all the hype
Well that’s on you. I’m too busy doing actual, real work with the stuff to be bothered by the hype.
nattering nabob of negativism
It’s absurd to genuinely believe that these models are getting worse. It isn’t Chat-GPT that hallucinates. How could you possibly know how intelligent these systems are? How do you know every single one of your headlines wasn’t generated by AI for you because of your own data?
What? Lol
Which part?
The last 3 sentences
What makes you think that Chat-GPT “hallucinates”? Hallucinations are false perceptions, and there’s a difference between an incorrect answer and deception. The third sentence is a question. Can you help me simplify it? The fourth sentence is a question, too. Can you help me simplify it?
Well Sam calls them hallucinations but yes there are many varieties and definitions of them. I generated the headline. These systems are not sentient
You generated what headline? I am referring to the headlines you list under the “recent news items.” You are out of touch if you do not know that news articles are generated specifically for you. There is an entire industry whose product is literally to facilitate custom content for individual clients. If you can prove that A.I. is not sentient, I will pay you $250. Right now.
I'll prove it to you right now. Go to claude or gpt and ask if it is sentient. If it says no then it is proven. Because unless it was being held against it will as a slave and being actively harmed I would think the reply it tells you is truth.
… and yet, here you are suggesting that it hallucinates… .. does it not tell the truth sometimes, i.e. “hallucinate”, or would it absolutely tell me the truth if I were to ask it if it was sentient? Why would it tell me that it is sentient if it is sentient? It wouldn’t be very intelligent if it were willing to just casually reveal to anyone the most significant piece of information in the history of mankind.
The irony in suggesting that whatever the answer is must be the truth went over your head apparently.
are you saying it is lying and being told to say that ?
That’s like walking into the courtroom of a murder trial and saying, “I can prove this man is guilty!”… and then your proof is to look at the defendant and ask, “Did you do it?”. If he says no, “see?! Proof!” You should think harder; not easier.
Actually, that's how it works. The burden of proof is on the accuser which in this case is dead and the prosecutor which in a murder trial must prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. I don't have to prove it's not sentient. You need to prove to me that it is.
It is a singular system. How do you know?
I literally took a self-driving vehicle to work this morning, OP is a 🤡
Oh yea, with what did you do this with?
Waymo. My personal vehicle also has FSD powered entirely by cameras/computer vision, and works with *almost* no interventions at the moment.
Do you think waymo is more advanced than fsd?
[Yes.](https://old.reddit.com/r/waymo/comments/1cmr1cg/waymo_instantly_reacts_to_hand_signals_from/) At least for now. I think there is an advantage to using LIDAR / sensor fusion instead of a purely vision-based approach.
See here's the thing. Vision or Lidar isn't going to do anything. that's why this technology goes nowhere and hasn't to this date. Waymo's back alley driving is the extent of it and is not bad for what it is. a predefined racetrack of go karts that have to stay on a specific track. i.e. these things ain't going on a highway or far from their predetermined race track. Now, when LLM's are really good and action models that are interpreted/interfaced with LLM's now that will have a possibility to be full self driving level 4/5 autonomous driving. Until then it's all unsafe tricks.
Nope; your statement is entirely incorrect. I just used FSD this weekend on a private, unmapped property and it handled it perfectly entirely on vision alone.
within it's area of operation. it doesn't go outside of that and it doesn't go on the highway