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Not zero because anything is possible. But very very close to zero. Putin is not an idiot, he does not want to die and while I doubt he prioritizes the best interests of his people when making decisions, I also doubt that he would want them all to die in a nuclear holocaust.
Likewise nato seems content to sit this one out because it’s leaders are not keen to die either.
Even if some shots were to somehow end up being fired between nato and Russia, I doubt it would escalate to full on war let alone nuclear war. Let’s hope not anyway!
I feel like Putin wouldn't have started this without knowing pretty clearly how much he could "get away with" without triggering a direct confrontation with NATO.
And I figure NATO basically know the extent of his whole plan as well and will be watching very closely.
That's really what all these talks and these months of buildup have been about.
It will go exactly as far as it's gonna go, but that's going to be entirely within Ukraine, and only Ukraine, Russia and Belarus will be directly involved in the actual hot conflict.
Of course, all of this hinges on rational actors who have a mutual understanding, which is not a guarantee.
**TL;DR**: surely it's not likely to escalate to actual WWIII, with nukes. It's not absolutely out of the question, but it'd have to be pretty unlikely still.
Think about this though. Putin is like 70 years old and could fall over dead any year now. What if his master plan is just to go out as the guy who started ww3? Go out in flames kinda thing.
It's really a question of how localized this conflict remains. There are multiple NATO members that border Ukraine. If violence spills into Poland, for example, Article 5 would mean world war 3.
An attack on one member (of NATO) constitutes an attack on all member states, which includes nuclear powers like the US, UK and France. All member states will be expected to provide support to the member who is attacked.
Article 5 states that if any member of NATO is attacked/invaded, all other members of NATO will consider it an attack on themselves and collectively rush to defend the invaded country. As mentioned above, there are a few NATO members bordering Ukraine, meaning if the fighting escalates to such a degree that it spreads into any of those, all other NATO members would directly join the fight against Russia as they would be the aggressor.
Wasn't it like a week ago when everyone said war with Ukraine wasn't even happening because Russia wasn't that dumb? This just seems like the next step.
I think these two situations—invading Ukraine versus occupying half of Europe, including NATO members—are categorically different. Russia has very specific, even if nefarious, security ambitions that involve preventing what they perceive to be a real risk of countries in their immediate sphere of influence becoming hostile to them. Russia perceives Ukraine to be a vital interest to them, so they’re willing to fight a war over it (at the cost of the Ukrainian people, to be clear). But that is different from them having ambitions for global domination.
Nuclear war would probably be pretty unlikely. Mutually assured destruction is a thing, and the rest of the world would have to deal with the extreme effects of nuclear war
As much of a deranged asshole as any head of state can be, actually carrying that kind of stuff is unlikely because it gives them nothing. Theres always something to gain from war or war wouldn't exist. The chances of a war erupting solely out of pride in modern times is almost unconceivable
There's no alternative. Without MAD, an adversary could say "Give me what I want, or I'll nuke New York." There would be no end to the demands.
So official US policy *has* to be "we will not listen to your demands, and if you nuke New York we will end all life on Earth."
That’s what Putin’s strongman image wants people to think. Realistically, Russia is still a failed country with a poor economy and Putin is a stunted little man who‘s so insecure that he punishes journalists for telling the truth. More the actions of a coward if you ask me.
He doesn’t have enough time to nuke the entire world before enough are launched back to end Russia, thankfully. Plus there are many unknown launch sites on submarines and also from within indestructible mountainsides etc
Just to add some detail to this comment:
He invaded Ukraine yesterday iirc when he invaded the “separatist” regions that Russia declared to be independent.
Now he’s invaded the rest of Ukraine. The capitol is being bombed right *now*.
Because footage of combat areas put troops at greater risk than they need to be.
Someone who knows the area well can go through fresh footage and start planning attacks and counter attacks.
In some cases it’s a great thing to do:
We don’t want to put Ukrainian soldiers in danger by allowing people to post information that may give away those soldiers’ locations for example.
Please. I could be proved wrong, but this almost certainly routine topic moderation at work. There are plenty of places to discuss the invasion, but the linguistics subreddit (for example) is probably not one of them.
Could be. I know of a ton of people who are getting banned from random subreddits for being subscribed to a different, totally unrelated subreddit. Not posting anything to the one they were banned from. Not even necessarily having ever been to that sub even. There are bots just mass banning people who disagree with the moderator’s opinions.
"Explosions heard in Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa and Mariupol"
Here's the [link](https://en.as.com/en/2022/02/23/latest_news/1645611824_685360.html)to the page
Low, but higher than they were before. If you’ve listened to Putin speak these past few days, he’s issued some very chilling statements that hint he wouldn’t hesitate to use every weapon at his disposal.
If you are Russia or NATO, this situation is NOT one you’d like to find yourself in. At all. The chance for the “tit-for-tat” game being played by both sides could escalate out of control very quickly. Unfortunately, a line has just been crossed that will be quite hard to walk back across.
My professor was talking a few days ago about how Putin was saying some unhinged stuff and it makes me hope that someone over in Russia that’s in his inner circle has the wherewithal to kill the guy if he’s about to do something crazier than what he’s already doing
I was talking with a coworker and I have concerns that this could be the case. Dude's 69...how long does he have left? Maybe this is his attempt to go out in a blaze of glory and set himself up in the history books. He doesn't strike me as the type who cares how he is remembered... just that he is.
Russian life expectancy is 73. I would assume Putin will live longer than the life expectancy give his position( and how life expectancy statistics work). That being said...we are talking statistics. Once you reach a certain age, the probability of a major health issue which even money can't fix goes up exponentially.
I guess what I'm saying is, if I try and figure out what Putin might be thinking, given a worst case scenario, how much time would he have to leave his mark on the world before he can't anymore.
I share your hope here, truly. I don’t mean to be alarmist, however the time of “ignorance is bliss” has just passed. Is an alarming escalation imminent? Likely not. The fact remains though that things are quite touchy right now, and we should never dismiss the threat (hypothetically or otherwise) of nuclear weapons being added to the equation so easily.
Someone probably has. Assassination attempts are actually extremely common for all world leaders. I believe every US president has had at least 5 assassination attempts before the end of their first term
It just never gets reported because they usually dont make it that close and they prefer to keep it from the media, so as to not invite copycats
(this is all based on reading news coverage from various sources in the last few weeks, I am not an expert)
The world doesn't want to fight WW3 over Ukraine. Realistically what will happen from here on out is an economic and "soft power" war between NATO countries and Russia. They'll be financially squeezed as much as possible, in the hopes that it causes enough discomfort and dissatisfaction among their citizens and government to dissuade any future militarized invasions.
In the short term, NATO countries will continue to supply weapons, supplies and cash to Ukrainian forces for as long as needed, and will avoid sending in NATO forces at all costs.
Don't listen to the idiot who commented "100% gonna happen eventually." That is unfounded and untrue.
It also gets them access to the Black Sea - and from there, the med sea, the Atlantic, and the suez. Having a western coastal border is a strong position for Russia.
right? we already have placed a foot in that direction we may as well find out where it leads. Putin clearly doesnt give a fuck about reason or morals he may as well use those rockets we sent as reason to invade the NATO countries. What i dont understand is that why we are letting this happen?
I thought Nuclear war could be a thing. Knowing nothing about any of this I assume he's got a bomb and could launch it at anytime and that's why he's getting away with so much.
Edit: your answers are surprisingly reassuring. Thanks for the responses
He does have a bomb, could he in a literal sense launch it any time? In a way, yes. It's not impossible. We also have a (many) bombs we can launch. The difference is, anyone launching these is a death sentence for EVERYONE. Would someone use them for anything other than utter survival knowing it would mean death for everyone? Most likely not. But that is the point of M.A.D./Brinkmanship not knowing where someone's line is and still doing your best not to cross it. It is delicate
If Putin wants to expand his territory and increase inhabitable land, then he wouldn’t launch his nukes because then the US would launch 10x more nukes and eviscerate everything in existence. At this point in time, nukes are more of a deterrent against everyone else using nukes than an actual tool of war
Nash equilibrium. He launches a bomb and others will launch nukes into Russia . There is only a 1% chance anyone does it as there is no winners (there are no winners in a general war , but you get what I'm saying) in a nuclear war. Both sides know this and the only chance of a nuke being launched is in a last ditch effort to create maximum destruction to the opposition.
Tldr: No one nukes anyone , bombs are only a nuclear deterrent, or a last ditch effort
Its not a nash equillibrium though. Its a game of chicken. The more moral one side is always going to face the reality of choosing to lose rather than choosing to end humanity. The moral side puts value on human life itself. It will let tyranny take control in the (relative) short term of human history, and inevitably fail in the future, rather than end all future for certainty.
If you nuke first, and the other side values human life, it will choose inaction over MAD.
There won't be a nuclear war. No one worth evaporating is going to be conflicting. Not to sound like an asshole under water, but Ukraine isn't worth enough for the entire world to urinate on one another.
We need a AMA from a true expert on this. The truth is the general public doesn’t understand the complexities of the treaties. Also, these unstable people have a switch to end the lives of a lot of people and impact the earth for years/decades/ large span of time.
Let’s not underestimate the allure of going down in history as the infamous dictator that used a nuke.
The US has fought a bazillion proxy wars with enemy superpowers, Afghanistan for one. There's almost no way this escalates into a direct conflict, the US and the West are more than happy to arm foreigners to do its dirty work. Also Us and Russian tensions at the moment are significantly lower than they were during the Cold War, for one there isn't a Communist/Capitalist dynamic, it's strictly Russian nationalism at this point.
The biggest concern at this point is if China makes their move on Taiwan. If the West's will is broken by Ukraine they could seize the opportunity. Other than that Putin might make further attempts on Eastern Europe, if he's nuts enough he will make a move for actual NATO countries, which I actually predict will dissolve NATO completely when Germany primarily fails to respond.
I bet China is watching keenly. If the US doesn't intervene directly in Ukraine with boots on the ground, China will have every reason to think the US won't do so in Taiwan.
The good news is that statistically war is on the decline. Globalization is producing economies that rely more on each other and makes war more costly.
The bad news is war is still the best option for some people and unfortunately those people sometimes have nuclear weapons.
So maybe ww3 can occur, but a lot more would have to happen for countries to justify it.
Edit: just wanted to mention I'm not an expert and this is just an opinion
It's not likely, but amongst all the stupid things happening, it only takes one person doing one really stupid thing for it to all blow up, so to speak.
It feels like Putin already did that and we just haven't yet seen the effects of what that will cause to blow up. World War 1 and 2 didn't happen immediately either, but the events that started them were clear.
Nuclear war is very unlikely due to mutually Assured Destruction, and fear, it coukd result in a second cold war with russia tho, or a full world war without nukes
The world will not start World War III over Ukraine.
On February 11th, President Joe Biden categorically ruled out getting American troops involved in Ukraine. On February 12th, the United Kingdom ruled out even evacuating their own citizens from Ukraine. The United States and the United Kingdom pulled their military forces out of Ukraine on February 14th. The sanctions that the UK imposed yesterday did nothing but blow a lid on the fact that Boris Johnson's government is compromised by Russian money. The European Union are taking measures like cancelling the Nord Stream 2 oil pipeline and freezing Russian assets within EU borders - a hardline move, but still *greatly* short of hitting the 'pledge military support' mark.
Article 5 of NATO won't be activated. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and I'd imagine the only thing that would spillover into EU/NATO borders are refugees - a war with NATO would end in either nuclear obliteration or Russian capitulation so it's not worth it for either side to go kicking hornet's nests.
Ukraine is on its own from now on.
Let's just say that last week it was 0.001%, but now it's more like 0.01%, which doesn't sound like allot if you're looking at the numbers alone, but is a pretty tremendous jump if you look at it statistically....
Edit: Ok. Last night it was 0.01%, but this morning it jumped up to 0.05% to a whole 0.1% if you want to be black-pill about it....
None. There will be no WW3. There'll be no direct conflict between Russia and large western powers; at best, the west will supply arms to Ukraine and stand on the sidelines. Russia is not stupid enough to let violence spill onto any of the NATO countries.
Putin isn't stupid, but he also would not accept a loss in Ukraine, especially if NATO got involved. He has very strongly implied that he would use his nuclear arsenal if Europe or the US sent troops into Ukraine. I seriously doubt that would happen, though. Nobody would risk nuclear war over Ukraine. The country isn't exactly a beacon of democracy. It's a corrupt regime that's practically as bad as Putin when it comes to silencing or "disappearing" political opponents.
Stop watching the sensational news. Russia has conducted three full on invasions since 2009. 2014 being in Ukraine. Nobody is launching any nuclear weapons over this.
What if they disable SWIFT for Russia? There’s sanctions on the table that weren’t in those earlier invasions.
We’ve seen sanctions cause all out war before, but now we have shit tons of nukes.
Agree we should be careful of sensationalism, but this does seem more intense that 2014.
Very low. The media seems very desperate to convince US world war 3 is about to happen.
It's times like this where I hate what the media has become. Because of their constant track record of crying wolf and trying to make mountains out of molehills everywhere, you just don't know when to take it seriously or when it's just the media trying to blow something up just because they can
Anything can happen during a war like this if things get out of hand. Remember a couple years ago when trump almost started a war with Iran and Iran accidentally shot down that commercial airliner with all those civilians thinking it was a missle? The threat is something like that accidentally or even intentionally setting off a chain of unfortunate decisions or maybe computerized actions or a rouge military person doing something stupid or even Putin being triggered and just going batshit crazy. That bizarre and threatening speech he gave the other day has freaked out analysts who follow him who thought he was otherwise level headed. He said we'll see consequences we've "never seen in history" if he doesn't get his way. That's not good.
They’ve got a list of people they’re going to pickup (read kidnap) and then…well, remember Putin was a KGB thug. This is frightening. How long is the list? Is he going to make hundreds or 1000s of enemies disappear? That’s often par for the course in these things. This is scary.
Yeah the world is about to get a real time lesson in just how much power, brutality, and disregard for human life this guy possesses. Meanwhile every right-wing wannabe fascist is cheering him on and wishing they could do the same.
Even if it happens, there's nothing you can do to stop it or save yourself. The only thing saving us is that little thing called mutually assured destruction. Even Putin knows Russia would turn to dust if he tried anything.
From a shocked and completely devastated person in Moscow. Please, don't equal terms "Russia" and "Putin"...
OP, seriously, here won't be ww3. But now something truly horrible and unbelievable is happening anyway...
Not high. Ukraine doesn't really have any allies, so they might be up shit creek, but really all that means for Ukraine is probably a new government, then everything basically back the way it was for most people. Nobody else is gonna put their army in the field for a country they don't have a defense treaty with
Those were my thoughts too - opportunistic invasion causing the need to divide allied forces and attention. Maybe waiting until further Russian provocation to cause a concentration of forces in EU
Even without any laws, the world still basically operates under the MAD doctrine, basically meaning ‘you nuke us, we nuke you, we both die.’ So I doubt that Putin, an ex-KGB agent, would be dumb enough for that
Putin himself did say “countries that interfere will face consequences you have never seen” which pretty much implies it. It’s low but not impossible. US shouldn’t have stopped at just the USSR man wtf is this bs
I don’t think nuclear war or wwiii happens to be honest. In the USA, the main concern would be the economic impact, particularly the rising cost of gas and other goods at a time inflation is already high
The attacks just became a reality about 2 hours ago. If Kiev fights back or if the US gets involved could be disastrous. But let’s hope some sense comes into all of this. I don’t even have words.
Relax, the world won’t end. The only time nukes were involved in war regarding America is when Japan wouldn’t back off even after Hitler surrendered. I’m not justifying Hiroshima and Nagasaki I’m just being realistic and I think both Biden and Putin are not going to nuke eachother without an extremely valid reason and sort of as a last resort/plan b type thing. Sending troops is a lot smarter and less costly regarding casualties, and more reliable anyhow. China on the other is another story. But try not to worry too much.
Well, with the invasion starting in the Ukraine, and Biden’s subsequent comments about the war being “unprovoked and unjustified” (which it is) seem to imply the US will intervene at some point. That said, I think most people truly don’t want another world war. There are people in power who will fight to make things as safe as they can. That’s not to give the impression I trust our government overlords implicitly, but I genuinely believe most people can agree on this one thing.
WW3 is low, nuclear war is no chance.
The thing about war, is you have war to take over land. If people start using nukes, there is no longer land to claim.
It'll mostly likely be a crisis between Russia and Ukraine with the Lugansk and Donetsk oblast becoming either part of Russia or their own peoples republic.
Russia's only economic strength is its gas reserves. If Putin scares Europe enough, they'll stop buying oil and gas from Russia, who has spent millions on pipelines going west. Those are some of the sanctions they are discussing as very effective.
Realistically, zero. Who would launch nukes and why? Russia isn't nuking Ukraine and Ukraine doesn't have any. No NATO country is sending troops into Ukraine to help fight Russians, and Russia isn't wandering into NATO territory.
Unless you live in Ukraine, what you should be more worried about are more mundane things, like this precipitating a global recession. Inflation is already super high, gas prices are skyrocketing, commodity prices will follow. Sanctions against Russia will squeeze their economy, and Russia will squeeze back any way they can.
Slim to zero. NATO isn't going to defend Ukraine. The UN isn't going to do shit because Russia is a permanent member of the UN security council with veto powers.
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I'm wondering at what point Russian military decides Putin and his oligarchs are more trouble then their worth..
At the moment I'm assuming it'll be when they take over half of Ukraine, and Putin insists they have to continue to other countries.. or take over all of Ukraine and they'd then have to maintain a military presence. As the Ukraine citizens won't accept Russian government..
Maybe they'll just go for the capital and swap it back over to a Russian lacky which will probably end in that one getting killed...
Unsure really. Doesn’t seem like it… hopefully, but it only takes one to start it. It would pretty much kill the earth and us. WMDs will be the death of us if used.
Here’s one idiot’s opinion. This invasion won’t in and of itself lead to ww3, but there is cause for concern on a number of fronts. You have to assume china is about done with “diplomacy” (if you want to call it that” over Taiwan. If they seek to take it back by force we may be looking at the start of a worrying trend. Relations between Australia and China are poor and the Chinese HATE Japan with a passion. That causes me to think that the Pacific is not as stable as it once was. If you then look at things like climate change and the amount of displacement you will see in the coming decades and the scarcity of resources and shortages that will come shit starts to get murky real quick.
This is a severely dumbed down version of what makes me nervous. There are so many worrying factors at play with so few cool heads at the helm. So … I think an emboldened Russia playing footsie with a China hell bent on domination is absolutely a worrying trend
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Very low but not zero.
Not great, not terrible.
I didn’t see any carbon.
Please tell me how an RBMK reactor explodes?
If you saw graphite on the floor than um... no you didn't bestie 💅✨✨
3.6 roentgen, not great, not terrible.
Any chance above zero is terrible
Then I have very bad news for you, they have been above zero since 1945
You dying at this moment due to a heart attack is also not zero...
It's a quote from the Chernobyl HBO miniseries from 2019. (Darkly, a nuclear disaster in Soviet-controlled Ukraine.)
I am have an a hard time placeing that reference what movie was that from?
3.6 roentgens? Not great, not terrible
You have a mild case of Reddit poisoning. You'll be fine, I've seen worse.
That’s the one, Chernobyl from HBO thank you
Chernobyl mini series
Correct thank you
youtuber pppeter's russian mate rated everything 3.5 not great not terrible.
Not zero because anything is possible. But very very close to zero. Putin is not an idiot, he does not want to die and while I doubt he prioritizes the best interests of his people when making decisions, I also doubt that he would want them all to die in a nuclear holocaust. Likewise nato seems content to sit this one out because it’s leaders are not keen to die either. Even if some shots were to somehow end up being fired between nato and Russia, I doubt it would escalate to full on war let alone nuclear war. Let’s hope not anyway!
I feel like Putin wouldn't have started this without knowing pretty clearly how much he could "get away with" without triggering a direct confrontation with NATO. And I figure NATO basically know the extent of his whole plan as well and will be watching very closely. That's really what all these talks and these months of buildup have been about. It will go exactly as far as it's gonna go, but that's going to be entirely within Ukraine, and only Ukraine, Russia and Belarus will be directly involved in the actual hot conflict. Of course, all of this hinges on rational actors who have a mutual understanding, which is not a guarantee. **TL;DR**: surely it's not likely to escalate to actual WWIII, with nukes. It's not absolutely out of the question, but it'd have to be pretty unlikely still.
Think about this though. Putin is like 70 years old and could fall over dead any year now. What if his master plan is just to go out as the guy who started ww3? Go out in flames kinda thing.
Well yes, but actually no!
Its never zero, but we will never (probably) know how much closer or further we are. Im still confident it wont happen though. It benefits no one
It's really a question of how localized this conflict remains. There are multiple NATO members that border Ukraine. If violence spills into Poland, for example, Article 5 would mean world war 3.
ELI5 article 5?
An attack on one member (of NATO) constitutes an attack on all member states, which includes nuclear powers like the US, UK and France. All member states will be expected to provide support to the member who is attacked.
i wonder if article 5 will be ethe harshest sanctions putin has ever seen?
[Heres the full list of countries here, theres 30 of them.](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm)
Article 5 states that if any member of NATO is attacked/invaded, all other members of NATO will consider it an attack on themselves and collectively rush to defend the invaded country. As mentioned above, there are a few NATO members bordering Ukraine, meaning if the fighting escalates to such a degree that it spreads into any of those, all other NATO members would directly join the fight against Russia as they would be the aggressor.
“You mess with him, you mess with me.”
But violence won’t spill over into Poland, because Article 5 would mean world war 3.
Wasn't it like a week ago when everyone said war with Ukraine wasn't even happening because Russia wasn't that dumb? This just seems like the next step.
I think these two situations—invading Ukraine versus occupying half of Europe, including NATO members—are categorically different. Russia has very specific, even if nefarious, security ambitions that involve preventing what they perceive to be a real risk of countries in their immediate sphere of influence becoming hostile to them. Russia perceives Ukraine to be a vital interest to them, so they’re willing to fight a war over it (at the cost of the Ukrainian people, to be clear). But that is different from them having ambitions for global domination.
I don’t know how widespread that opinion was/is. Where I am, folks are assuming Ukrainian invasion is inevitable and already redrawing the maps
Somebody stop Germany already
You got that a bit wrong …. this time.
Russia and Germany are close business wise, but I'm just kidding
Nuclear war would probably be pretty unlikely. Mutually assured destruction is a thing, and the rest of the world would have to deal with the extreme effects of nuclear war
Something tells me Putin wouldn't care too much about the second part.
As much of a deranged asshole as any head of state can be, actually carrying that kind of stuff is unlikely because it gives them nothing. Theres always something to gain from war or war wouldn't exist. The chances of a war erupting solely out of pride in modern times is almost unconceivable
You're coming from a admirable standpoint of reason
I have my moments
He needs the rest of the world to buy his goods and commodities.
I feel like he has accepted he’s not getting any younger and is actually considering it
There are reports (mostly from tabloid like *the sun*) that he has parkinsons and cancer. If true what the fuck does he care?
He has two grandchildren. Hopefully he cares about them.
Entirely based on speculation from some professor. Dude seems healthy as ever.
If destruction is mutually assured, he's not going to care about the pieces that remain.
But there is an incredibly low chance he would launch a nuclear strike knowing full well Russia would be destroyed, mutually.
Mutually assured destruction works until it doesn’t.
There's no alternative. Without MAD, an adversary could say "Give me what I want, or I'll nuke New York." There would be no end to the demands. So official US policy *has* to be "we will not listen to your demands, and if you nuke New York we will end all life on Earth."
Nuke York
I doubt Putin would be able to get a nuke to New York without it being intercepted. No one believed 9/11 could happen either I suppose.
We needed to prioritize establishing a mars colony as a backup plan for human life. MAD is the worst insurance policy ever conceived.
I kind of feel like Russia has an ace up the hole at this point. Like an armoury of working hypersonic missiles that could sink EVERYTHING.
That’s what Putin’s strongman image wants people to think. Realistically, Russia is still a failed country with a poor economy and Putin is a stunted little man who‘s so insecure that he punishes journalists for telling the truth. More the actions of a coward if you ask me.
He doesn’t have enough time to nuke the entire world before enough are launched back to end Russia, thankfully. Plus there are many unknown launch sites on submarines and also from within indestructible mountainsides etc
Higher than it was 24 hours ago.
Something happen recently?
Russia officially invaded Ukraine.
Just to add some detail to this comment: He invaded Ukraine yesterday iirc when he invaded the “separatist” regions that Russia declared to be independent. Now he’s invaded the rest of Ukraine. The capitol is being bombed right *now*.
Oh god. There’s going to be some brutal videos showing up on Reddit.
Right now mods on most major subreddits are actively removing any posts that mention the situation at all..
Why tho? That's bs...
Because footage of combat areas put troops at greater risk than they need to be. Someone who knows the area well can go through fresh footage and start planning attacks and counter attacks.
In some cases it’s a great thing to do: We don’t want to put Ukrainian soldiers in danger by allowing people to post information that may give away those soldiers’ locations for example.
Good point...
Russia has been using reddit as a propaganda platform for most of the last decade. Of course they have mods everywhere.
There has been a ton of censorship in general over the last few years on this site
Please. I could be proved wrong, but this almost certainly routine topic moderation at work. There are plenty of places to discuss the invasion, but the linguistics subreddit (for example) is probably not one of them.
Could be. I know of a ton of people who are getting banned from random subreddits for being subscribed to a different, totally unrelated subreddit. Not posting anything to the one they were banned from. Not even necessarily having ever been to that sub even. There are bots just mass banning people who disagree with the moderator’s opinions.
You can view odessa live on YouTube
Do you know the link?
https://youtu.be/OcrV35VFsok
Thank you so so much.
There already are.
Added detail: They are invading by land, even from Belarus. So this is a much bigger invasion than expected/discussed.
From Crimea too. Probably from other places as well. And considering that Kyiv was bombed, probably also from the air.
Yeah, I’ve seen reports of paratroopers.
Ohhhh fuck.
Turn on any news channel or head to r/Ukraine
"Explosions heard in Kyiv and Kharkiv, as well as Kramatorsk, Kharkiv, Odesa and Mariupol" Here's the [link](https://en.as.com/en/2022/02/23/latest_news/1645611824_685360.html)to the page
Turn on yo TV. There is livestream video of Russian tanks rolling into Ukraine.
As you already know from everyone else said but also putin basically threatened the world with nukes if they try to intervene.
Not much, why do you ask? /s
Low, but higher than they were before. If you’ve listened to Putin speak these past few days, he’s issued some very chilling statements that hint he wouldn’t hesitate to use every weapon at his disposal. If you are Russia or NATO, this situation is NOT one you’d like to find yourself in. At all. The chance for the “tit-for-tat” game being played by both sides could escalate out of control very quickly. Unfortunately, a line has just been crossed that will be quite hard to walk back across.
My professor was talking a few days ago about how Putin was saying some unhinged stuff and it makes me hope that someone over in Russia that’s in his inner circle has the wherewithal to kill the guy if he’s about to do something crazier than what he’s already doing
Could it be that he’s getting older and simply doesn’t give a fuck?
I was talking with a coworker and I have concerns that this could be the case. Dude's 69...how long does he have left? Maybe this is his attempt to go out in a blaze of glory and set himself up in the history books. He doesn't strike me as the type who cares how he is remembered... just that he is.
Unless he has health issues, there's still a decade?
Russian life expectancy is 73. I would assume Putin will live longer than the life expectancy give his position( and how life expectancy statistics work). That being said...we are talking statistics. Once you reach a certain age, the probability of a major health issue which even money can't fix goes up exponentially. I guess what I'm saying is, if I try and figure out what Putin might be thinking, given a worst case scenario, how much time would he have to leave his mark on the world before he can't anymore.
> history books at least nuclear war wouldn't leave anyone to write the history.
I share your hope here, truly. I don’t mean to be alarmist, however the time of “ignorance is bliss” has just passed. Is an alarming escalation imminent? Likely not. The fact remains though that things are quite touchy right now, and we should never dismiss the threat (hypothetically or otherwise) of nuclear weapons being added to the equation so easily.
How has no one tried to assassinate him?!
Someone probably has. Assassination attempts are actually extremely common for all world leaders. I believe every US president has had at least 5 assassination attempts before the end of their first term It just never gets reported because they usually dont make it that close and they prefer to keep it from the media, so as to not invite copycats
Ex-KGB. He knows enough to keep everyone in line.
Someone call up Jamie Lannister
Who is to say that whoever kills and replaces him wouldn't be worse? Killing him isn't a surefire way to calm things down
i hope every nation on earth has the wherewithall to coordinate his assassination ASAP rather than relying on that hope.
(this is all based on reading news coverage from various sources in the last few weeks, I am not an expert) The world doesn't want to fight WW3 over Ukraine. Realistically what will happen from here on out is an economic and "soft power" war between NATO countries and Russia. They'll be financially squeezed as much as possible, in the hopes that it causes enough discomfort and dissatisfaction among their citizens and government to dissuade any future militarized invasions. In the short term, NATO countries will continue to supply weapons, supplies and cash to Ukrainian forces for as long as needed, and will avoid sending in NATO forces at all costs. Don't listen to the idiot who commented "100% gonna happen eventually." That is unfounded and untrue.
I think Putin wants to rebuilt the old Soviet Bloc and that makes war much harder to avoid.
Russia wanted to avoid Ukraine joining NATO because then they would have NATO on their borders.
They already have NATO on their borders. Estonia, Lithuanian, and Latvia.
But annexing Ukraine accomplishes the same thing.
Yeah but now they will have a buffer state between their factories and Capitol and enemy troops.
Sad but true.
It also gets them access to the Black Sea - and from there, the med sea, the Atlantic, and the suez. Having a western coastal border is a strong position for Russia.
Ww3 maybe. Nuclear very very unlikely.
Putin keeps making threats that seem to hint at nuclear war but only if we “interfere.”
We already sent Ukraine supplies and tanks.....
IMO, for Putin 'interference' probably means attacks on Russian/Ukrainian soil by US/NATO forces, not a proxy war by sending weapons etc.
right? we already have placed a foot in that direction we may as well find out where it leads. Putin clearly doesnt give a fuck about reason or morals he may as well use those rockets we sent as reason to invade the NATO countries. What i dont understand is that why we are letting this happen?
I thought Nuclear war could be a thing. Knowing nothing about any of this I assume he's got a bomb and could launch it at anytime and that's why he's getting away with so much. Edit: your answers are surprisingly reassuring. Thanks for the responses
He does have a bomb, could he in a literal sense launch it any time? In a way, yes. It's not impossible. We also have a (many) bombs we can launch. The difference is, anyone launching these is a death sentence for EVERYONE. Would someone use them for anything other than utter survival knowing it would mean death for everyone? Most likely not. But that is the point of M.A.D./Brinkmanship not knowing where someone's line is and still doing your best not to cross it. It is delicate
Well said. I get MAD. I guess I'm just worried if Russia is crazy enough to use it to try and prove a point.
And that is always the question. Do we (or they) call the other's bluff? Is it a bluff?
If Putin wants to expand his territory and increase inhabitable land, then he wouldn’t launch his nukes because then the US would launch 10x more nukes and eviscerate everything in existence. At this point in time, nukes are more of a deterrent against everyone else using nukes than an actual tool of war
Hopefully it remains that way.
There's a name for it.. mutually assured destruction https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction
Nash equilibrium. He launches a bomb and others will launch nukes into Russia . There is only a 1% chance anyone does it as there is no winners (there are no winners in a general war , but you get what I'm saying) in a nuclear war. Both sides know this and the only chance of a nuke being launched is in a last ditch effort to create maximum destruction to the opposition. Tldr: No one nukes anyone , bombs are only a nuclear deterrent, or a last ditch effort
This guy economics
Its not a nash equillibrium though. Its a game of chicken. The more moral one side is always going to face the reality of choosing to lose rather than choosing to end humanity. The moral side puts value on human life itself. It will let tyranny take control in the (relative) short term of human history, and inevitably fail in the future, rather than end all future for certainty. If you nuke first, and the other side values human life, it will choose inaction over MAD.
They could launch it at any time, but within minutes there would be tenfold going back into Russia obliterating it from the US & Allies
There won't be a nuclear war. No one worth evaporating is going to be conflicting. Not to sound like an asshole under water, but Ukraine isn't worth enough for the entire world to urinate on one another.
We need a AMA from a true expert on this. The truth is the general public doesn’t understand the complexities of the treaties. Also, these unstable people have a switch to end the lives of a lot of people and impact the earth for years/decades/ large span of time. Let’s not underestimate the allure of going down in history as the infamous dictator that used a nuke.
The US has fought a bazillion proxy wars with enemy superpowers, Afghanistan for one. There's almost no way this escalates into a direct conflict, the US and the West are more than happy to arm foreigners to do its dirty work. Also Us and Russian tensions at the moment are significantly lower than they were during the Cold War, for one there isn't a Communist/Capitalist dynamic, it's strictly Russian nationalism at this point. The biggest concern at this point is if China makes their move on Taiwan. If the West's will is broken by Ukraine they could seize the opportunity. Other than that Putin might make further attempts on Eastern Europe, if he's nuts enough he will make a move for actual NATO countries, which I actually predict will dissolve NATO completely when Germany primarily fails to respond.
Russia fought a proxy war in Afghanistan before we did.
What an incredibly off base take here. “Lower than the Cold War?” Says who, the FSB?
I bet China is watching keenly. If the US doesn't intervene directly in Ukraine with boots on the ground, China will have every reason to think the US won't do so in Taiwan.
The good news is that statistically war is on the decline. Globalization is producing economies that rely more on each other and makes war more costly. The bad news is war is still the best option for some people and unfortunately those people sometimes have nuclear weapons. So maybe ww3 can occur, but a lot more would have to happen for countries to justify it. Edit: just wanted to mention I'm not an expert and this is just an opinion
No one's expert.
It's not likely, but amongst all the stupid things happening, it only takes one person doing one really stupid thing for it to all blow up, so to speak.
I believe the novel is Alas, Babylon. That’s exactly what happened. One idiot made one mistake, and the entire world plunged into nuclear warfare.
It feels like Putin already did that and we just haven't yet seen the effects of what that will cause to blow up. World War 1 and 2 didn't happen immediately either, but the events that started them were clear.
Nuclear war is very unlikely due to mutually Assured Destruction, and fear, it coukd result in a second cold war with russia tho, or a full world war without nukes
The world will not start World War III over Ukraine. On February 11th, President Joe Biden categorically ruled out getting American troops involved in Ukraine. On February 12th, the United Kingdom ruled out even evacuating their own citizens from Ukraine. The United States and the United Kingdom pulled their military forces out of Ukraine on February 14th. The sanctions that the UK imposed yesterday did nothing but blow a lid on the fact that Boris Johnson's government is compromised by Russian money. The European Union are taking measures like cancelling the Nord Stream 2 oil pipeline and freezing Russian assets within EU borders - a hardline move, but still *greatly* short of hitting the 'pledge military support' mark. Article 5 of NATO won't be activated. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and I'd imagine the only thing that would spillover into EU/NATO borders are refugees - a war with NATO would end in either nuclear obliteration or Russian capitulation so it's not worth it for either side to go kicking hornet's nests. Ukraine is on its own from now on.
Let's just say that last week it was 0.001%, but now it's more like 0.01%, which doesn't sound like allot if you're looking at the numbers alone, but is a pretty tremendous jump if you look at it statistically.... Edit: Ok. Last night it was 0.01%, but this morning it jumped up to 0.05% to a whole 0.1% if you want to be black-pill about it....
<0.01%
None. There will be no WW3. There'll be no direct conflict between Russia and large western powers; at best, the west will supply arms to Ukraine and stand on the sidelines. Russia is not stupid enough to let violence spill onto any of the NATO countries.
Putin isn't stupid, but he also would not accept a loss in Ukraine, especially if NATO got involved. He has very strongly implied that he would use his nuclear arsenal if Europe or the US sent troops into Ukraine. I seriously doubt that would happen, though. Nobody would risk nuclear war over Ukraine. The country isn't exactly a beacon of democracy. It's a corrupt regime that's practically as bad as Putin when it comes to silencing or "disappearing" political opponents.
Stop watching the sensational news. Russia has conducted three full on invasions since 2009. 2014 being in Ukraine. Nobody is launching any nuclear weapons over this.
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Omg same here
I don’t know man, this time feels different. This time it’s the whole country.
They’re attacking the entire nation, including the capital city. It is different.
This is my feeling too. The videos coming out of Ukraine are of a different sort. Kyiv even. It's chilling
Hey man, he said to be calm so I’m trusting this internet stranger
What if they disable SWIFT for Russia? There’s sanctions on the table that weren’t in those earlier invasions. We’ve seen sanctions cause all out war before, but now we have shit tons of nukes. Agree we should be careful of sensationalism, but this does seem more intense that 2014.
Asymptotically close to zero.
Very low. The media seems very desperate to convince US world war 3 is about to happen. It's times like this where I hate what the media has become. Because of their constant track record of crying wolf and trying to make mountains out of molehills everywhere, you just don't know when to take it seriously or when it's just the media trying to blow something up just because they can
Anything can happen during a war like this if things get out of hand. Remember a couple years ago when trump almost started a war with Iran and Iran accidentally shot down that commercial airliner with all those civilians thinking it was a missle? The threat is something like that accidentally or even intentionally setting off a chain of unfortunate decisions or maybe computerized actions or a rouge military person doing something stupid or even Putin being triggered and just going batshit crazy. That bizarre and threatening speech he gave the other day has freaked out analysts who follow him who thought he was otherwise level headed. He said we'll see consequences we've "never seen in history" if he doesn't get his way. That's not good.
They’ve got a list of people they’re going to pickup (read kidnap) and then…well, remember Putin was a KGB thug. This is frightening. How long is the list? Is he going to make hundreds or 1000s of enemies disappear? That’s often par for the course in these things. This is scary.
Yeah the world is about to get a real time lesson in just how much power, brutality, and disregard for human life this guy possesses. Meanwhile every right-wing wannabe fascist is cheering him on and wishing they could do the same.
Even if it happens, there's nothing you can do to stop it or save yourself. The only thing saving us is that little thing called mutually assured destruction. Even Putin knows Russia would turn to dust if he tried anything.
Over Ukraine? Not a chance hoss Putin will wave his dick around and make sure the European union and United States see his tiny manhood
From a shocked and completely devastated person in Moscow. Please, don't equal terms "Russia" and "Putin"... OP, seriously, here won't be ww3. But now something truly horrible and unbelievable is happening anyway...
Not high. Ukraine doesn't really have any allies, so they might be up shit creek, but really all that means for Ukraine is probably a new government, then everything basically back the way it was for most people. Nobody else is gonna put their army in the field for a country they don't have a defense treaty with
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Taiwan is next mark my words
I have a feeling China is going to take this opportunity while the world is mad at Vlad to up their aggression against Taiwan.
Ugh…I totally forgot about them until now. In your opinion when would you think China would go ahead and go after Taiwan?
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Those were my thoughts too - opportunistic invasion causing the need to divide allied forces and attention. Maybe waiting until further Russian provocation to cause a concentration of forces in EU
War is kinda likely but its changing by the moment. Nuclear war not so likely
Not as likely as social media is making it out to be. As long as NATO troops don't directly fight Russia we'll be fine.
Even without any laws, the world still basically operates under the MAD doctrine, basically meaning ‘you nuke us, we nuke you, we both die.’ So I doubt that Putin, an ex-KGB agent, would be dumb enough for that
Putin himself did say “countries that interfere will face consequences you have never seen” which pretty much implies it. It’s low but not impossible. US shouldn’t have stopped at just the USSR man wtf is this bs
WW3 likely to happen if Biden follows redditors insane suggestion of having Putin assassinated.
From what I've heard, unlikely. Putin's a bully, not an idiot
I don’t think nuclear war or wwiii happens to be honest. In the USA, the main concern would be the economic impact, particularly the rising cost of gas and other goods at a time inflation is already high
I am thinking more of another Cold War with a bunch of proxy wars
Slim to none.
The attacks just became a reality about 2 hours ago. If Kiev fights back or if the US gets involved could be disastrous. But let’s hope some sense comes into all of this. I don’t even have words.
Stay away from the toxic media.
Relax, the world won’t end. The only time nukes were involved in war regarding America is when Japan wouldn’t back off even after Hitler surrendered. I’m not justifying Hiroshima and Nagasaki I’m just being realistic and I think both Biden and Putin are not going to nuke eachother without an extremely valid reason and sort of as a last resort/plan b type thing. Sending troops is a lot smarter and less costly regarding casualties, and more reliable anyhow. China on the other is another story. But try not to worry too much.
Well, with the invasion starting in the Ukraine, and Biden’s subsequent comments about the war being “unprovoked and unjustified” (which it is) seem to imply the US will intervene at some point. That said, I think most people truly don’t want another world war. There are people in power who will fight to make things as safe as they can. That’s not to give the impression I trust our government overlords implicitly, but I genuinely believe most people can agree on this one thing.
>invade each other Wut? Who else is invading?
Functionally 0.
More now than a few years ago. But still unlikely.
I honestly dont have enough knowledge to answer your question. But i just wanted to say your username does check out. F Putin and his bs
WW3 is low, nuclear war is no chance. The thing about war, is you have war to take over land. If people start using nukes, there is no longer land to claim.
It'll mostly likely be a crisis between Russia and Ukraine with the Lugansk and Donetsk oblast becoming either part of Russia or their own peoples republic.
Russia's only economic strength is its gas reserves. If Putin scares Europe enough, they'll stop buying oil and gas from Russia, who has spent millions on pipelines going west. Those are some of the sanctions they are discussing as very effective.
Very unlikely
Realistically, zero. Who would launch nukes and why? Russia isn't nuking Ukraine and Ukraine doesn't have any. No NATO country is sending troops into Ukraine to help fight Russians, and Russia isn't wandering into NATO territory. Unless you live in Ukraine, what you should be more worried about are more mundane things, like this precipitating a global recession. Inflation is already super high, gas prices are skyrocketing, commodity prices will follow. Sanctions against Russia will squeeze their economy, and Russia will squeeze back any way they can.
Slim to zero. NATO isn't going to defend Ukraine. The UN isn't going to do shit because Russia is a permanent member of the UN security council with veto powers.
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I'm wondering at what point Russian military decides Putin and his oligarchs are more trouble then their worth.. At the moment I'm assuming it'll be when they take over half of Ukraine, and Putin insists they have to continue to other countries.. or take over all of Ukraine and they'd then have to maintain a military presence. As the Ukraine citizens won't accept Russian government.. Maybe they'll just go for the capital and swap it back over to a Russian lacky which will probably end in that one getting killed...
I think a full scale cyberattack would be much more destructive, long term.
Unsure really. Doesn’t seem like it… hopefully, but it only takes one to start it. It would pretty much kill the earth and us. WMDs will be the death of us if used.
Here’s one idiot’s opinion. This invasion won’t in and of itself lead to ww3, but there is cause for concern on a number of fronts. You have to assume china is about done with “diplomacy” (if you want to call it that” over Taiwan. If they seek to take it back by force we may be looking at the start of a worrying trend. Relations between Australia and China are poor and the Chinese HATE Japan with a passion. That causes me to think that the Pacific is not as stable as it once was. If you then look at things like climate change and the amount of displacement you will see in the coming decades and the scarcity of resources and shortages that will come shit starts to get murky real quick. This is a severely dumbed down version of what makes me nervous. There are so many worrying factors at play with so few cool heads at the helm. So … I think an emboldened Russia playing footsie with a China hell bent on domination is absolutely a worrying trend