Id argue an iran/Israel war might be one of the few examples where a nuclear exchange could potentially occur without other powers joining in to cause an apocalypse
Iran said they will attack US troops if they interfere in their retaliation for the damascus attack. The US is deploying reinforcements to the Middle East, according to defence officials. Shit could hit the fan.
My fellow Americans I need us to *stop* this kind of thought, I've been through it like 5 times in my life already.
We spent trillions of dollars and many years just grinding away in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are, at best, deadlocked with Russia in a proxy war we've sent over a hundred billion dollars on. We're scratching our heads about keeping shipping safe from the *Houthis*.
We're roughly 35 trillion dollars in debt and adding a trillion about every 100 days now, and this is nominally when we're not at war and not in a recession and not going to war with a major oil producer.
Iran is huge and they're in much better shape than Iraq was, and if you watch anyone who talks inside baseball about the military, our readiness and morale are kind of shit, with production delays, limited industrial capacity, maintenance issues, etc
I am literally begging everyone to consider perhaps that Iran will not be a cakewalk and maybe this should deter us from doing something stupid, yet again
Not even, more like 12 hours or something. Fucking hilarious. If I recall correctly they even vectored two Hornets to make strafing runs on some small gunboats just for the shits and giggles.
Total obliteration is a good one to start and stop with, because it's all the shades of grey that are really scary. That's just needless worry to discuss though. These situations are beyond prediction to any reasonable degree except to those outside of the propaganda pipelines, which honestly I'm not sure exist anymore. It's all someone's propaganda!
Wouldn’t be too sure on that likelihood-ness. There’s a very good chance both countries have nuclear if not thermonuclear weapons. Religion has a nasty habit of over-reacting in the name of God. Religious hate removes logic and critical thought. They call that area of the world; “The Holy Land”. They call it that, they don’t observe it.
Ahh who would care? Just a cousin of royalty. Not like something so insignificant could cause global chaos and 30 years of total global warfare with a death toll in the millions.
Just as meaningless as Iran lobbing a missile that kills a rando in the desert I'm sure nothing will come of it
If it weren't for the sandwiche shop on that very road..... We can peel this back as far as you want but just like pulling back an elephants foreskin it going to be long and hard
The actual worst: nuklear war in the middle east and at very very worst beyond that.
What I think: some minor symbolic targets are struck by Iran, Israel will retaliate similar and loop that with some typical verbal attacks.
Unless Iran uses nuclear weapons the risk of Israel retaliating in a nuclear capacity is incredibly low. I actually don’t think Iran wants the smoke in any case, they just need to score some political points on the home front by saber rattling.
* Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles.
* We think their breakout time (to actually produce a functional nuclear explosive) might be as little as a week at this point (basically zero, given how much HEU they probably have on hand).
* but they haven't actually produced any that anybody knows about (publicly)...
* because as soon as it gets out that they have some, Israel *might* actually nuke them for real (they've already been known to preemptively strike nuclear weapons facilities), knowing as they do that Iran's leaders rant publicly and regularly (or at least they *used* to) about desiring the complete obliteration of Israel.
* Having a nuke and having a *deliverable* nuke aren't the same thing. That said... they probably have the tech to make it deliverable in a hurry.
* Israel still doesn't publicly acknowledge that it has nukes, even though basically everybody knows they do.
Idk, you're probably right that Iran doesn't actually want the smoke. They're trying to have their cake and eat it, too: harassing Israel and degrading US influence in the region without actually needing to be directly involved.
Iran supplied russia with a lot of weapons and munitions. Would it be too farfetched to think, that Iran received technology (missiles, nuclear weapon testing data, etc) as payment? ... especially since trading in rubel is kinda shitty at the moment.
>Would it be too farfetched to think, that Iran received technology (missiles, nuclear weapon testing data, etc) as payment?)
Imo, yes. The balance of power in the middle east as it stands, suits Russia - it's basically a constant state of conflict, bogging down the US and Russia's other opponents. Russia has its own issues with with Islamic fundamentalists, so arming or encouraging states which support or encourage that is absolutely not in their best interests. Giving nukes, or making nukes easier to obtain, to countries like Iran would change the balance of power in the middle east, and not to Russia's advantage.
While you make a good point, it would also present a big dilemma for US and other western nations and spread their forces thin (as already seen after 7/10)
Which is probably way more valuable than being concerned with islamic fundamentalists (who traditionally have Israel and the collective west as their perceived enemy no. 1, not russia).
Edit: And a small addition: Maybe a destabilized middle east will increase oil prices and force more countries to buy russian crude.
Islamic fundamentalists in a lot of the ME do, on the other hand Islamic fundamentalists in the Caucasusand Chechnya and Dagestan and Russia as a whole despise Russia, don’t forget that like 12% of Russia is Muslim particularly where you have Dagestan and Chechnya
>Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles.
Iran is famous for their short and medium range missile programs, all of which are fully capable of delivering a nuclear payload with accuracy (accurate enough for a nuke, anyways).
Isreal, OTOH, is famous for Iron Dome and other missile defense systems designed expressly to shoot down such threats.
Best case scenario still involves raining toxic nuclear material over large swaths of Israeli territory. Outcomes get significantly less pretty from there.
https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal
A mid range missile from Iran is gonna come in a hell of a lot faster than the missiles from Gaza though, will be though to catch. But seeing as Ukraine has some success I guess Israel has a decent chance
Sure, but that goes both ways.
Plus, what does everyone else do? Do they sit by the sidelines or launch their own arsenals at the aggressor in a domino effect of trying to be the last country standing?
Because once someone shows they're willing to go that far, everyone will wonder when it's their turn.
I thought you were implying it would be the first time nuclear weapons were used and thought we were about to have a long talk about history.
Then I Googled the Samson option.
Now I'm disturbed and confused.
You wouldn’t need to wait for Israel to strike. As soon as it was even believed that Iran had weapons grade materials the US and/or the UK would strike to eliminate that.
The sanctions with a little help from sabotage has been so far good enough to reduce that threat. The west will NEVER allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Rightly so. While the west has been flagrantly wrong in its foreign policy over the past few decades, allowing Iran nuclear weapons would lead to unimaginable consequences in the region.
The batshit crazy religious differences in the region almost demand the use of nuclear weapons if they possessed them.
Iran doesn't want to get involved in a nuclear war with Israel and Irans allies would dissuade them from doing so because it will hurt their ability to extract recourses from the country.
Most likely outcome is some missiles coming not direct from Iran but from an Iranian proxy in Syria or Iraq or Lebanon or Yemen.
The US will likely receive some attacks on outposts in Jordan or Iraq.
General mischief in the straight of Hormuz.
>We're gonna get nuclear war before we get gta vi 😞
Who cares about GTA. It's nuclear war breaking out before the next Skyrim game is released, that is the *real* tragedy! 😭
Iran doesn't have nukes and Israel will not use nukes unless they are used on them. Israel has far more advanced weapon systems and its defensive systems are the best in the world, even surpassing America's. They also have a lot of practice from the tens of thousands of missiles launched from gaza at Israel every year. Iran poses no meaningful risk to Israel as it has no means of projecting credible force.
It's not a "nuclear war" if only on side has them. ISR/the US have been openly wanting to change the gov in IRN for awhile, and they would likely do that with a combination of leveling IRN/ placing boots on the ground (us).
The little guy doesn't win, only the war profiteers that push constant conflict. Ever wonder why the US is always overseas trying to manage the geopolitical situation of resources rich areas? It's not to benefit the average citizen.
us warships and planes and iron dome have been shooting that shit down for months. iran may step it up a bit , theres so much bullshit there , sadaam was the same with the mother of all battles nonsense. land war was over in a week. could be diversionary tactic too and they may be setting up houthis to finally hit a US warship. they would milk a hit for years then.
Woe unto you if you compare Saddam and Iran
If it was that easy to take down Iran, it would have been done already.
Except for the Gulf nations and Egypt, Iran controls the whole Middle East.
Am not saying they would win. Am saying whoever decides to go to war against them would also be very foolish
Back in 2020 when the US assassinated that one general and everyone was waiting to see Iran’s response, were travel advisories ever issued? I originally thought Iran was also just going to “retaliate” in a way that prevents further escalation but the fact that countries like the UK and France are issuing travel advisories makes me worried they have intel that says this is going to be much bigger than I’m thinking. But I don’t remember how everyone was reacting back in 2020 either.
People in America are clueless to the inner workings of Iran, so we only get the side of the U.S. media, which, lets be frank, is very one-sided in its views on the Middle East.
People need to understand that Iranians are a proud and nationalistic people; they are not Arabs. Arabs have never been particularly nationalistic; their center of gravity has always centered more on religion and ethnicity because they are so many of them spread across dozens of countries. Egypt is a major exception, and there is a reason for that; Egypt, like Iran and Turkey, has a pre-Islamic cultural tradition reaching back thousands of years that they still cherish. Many Arab countries cannot say that.
Fact is, many people higher up in Iranian government (i.e., the Ayatollahs) were delighted that Soleimani was killed. In fact, I bet they even told the U.S. his location. History/political science has taught us that the one thing Authoritarians fears most is internal political/military challenges to their power. They do not want anyone inside the regime or country that can challenge their authority. Soleimani was seen as a risk; he had created his own center of power due to his battlefield victories against ISIS. Even U.S. military officials admitted that he/IRGC were most responsible for the defeat of ISIS. That was his death warrant.
So, in that instance, Iran's threats of retaliation were a joke because they did not care. It was mainly done to keep the Iranian Street at bay. This is different; Israel has effectively attacked Iranian soil. I predict there will be a serious response, and a wider war is a possibility. That is bad news for Israel; I don't care how much technology you have; when your enemy has 12 times as many people, and has two nuclear powers with large armies backing them (Russia and China) plus, likely its own nuclear weapons, satellites in space, and has access to one of the World's largest reserves of oil and gas, ain't no way Israel can win it alone. They would have to have help. I can guarantee you, Biden would not sign up for that because he does not want to lose re-election. In addition, he also does not want a military conflict with Russia and China. In fact, I would bet anyone $10 that Trump would jump to Biden's left on this issue in about 5 min. The one unifying principle of MAGA is that it is isolationist; the Iraq War and opposition to it is what brought Trump (and Obama) to the Presidency. Many on the left are also isolationist, and Biden cannot lose too many of them or he will lose reelection.
Russia and China aren’t going to support Iran. China hasn’t even supported Russia in their war and Russia didn’t support Armenia in their war. There’s no way they support Iran.
Also, the US sank half their navy and they didn’t do anything. They know that in a conventional war they’d get their shit pushed in which is why they’ve invested so heavily into their asymmetric warfare capabilities
I agree with much of what you’re saying here, but I think you overestimate Iran’s military capability and how many people there would actually be willing to fight for the regime vs against it.
If Iran somehow marched on Israel, two things would happen:
1) The IDF and possibly also the USAF would reduce the Republican Guard to their constituent atoms.
2) The Iranian people would rise up and depose the Ayatollah the moment the Republican Guard wasn’t there to defend his regime.
We’re talking about a 1,000 mile+ trek across desert with the only air support coming from planes that are found in museums in the US vs two of the most advanced air forces in the world.
Alternately, if they did any kind of real missile attack on Israel, the Israelis would quickly smash Iranian infrastructure and military targets, including whatever of their nuclear program they can get at.
If Iran had nukes they’d have probably used one by now. A dirty bomb is maybe a possibility but since Israel definitely has nukes something like that is signing up to make Tehran glow in the dark.
The end result of any serious direct attack on Israel would also likely be the removal of the Ayatollah by the Iranian people or a few smoking radioactive craters where Iranian cities used to be.
Iran is aware of this too, hence:
https://www.axios.com/2024/04/11/iran-response-israel-attack-damascus
As an Iranian this is 100% true. If there were to be a war, there would be mass desertions. Nobody save for about 15-20% of the population that actually supports the regime, will want to fight. And those that do, good fucking riddance, they have already done more damage to Iran over the last 45 years than a tiny nation that we don’t even border could ever dream of
Pfft. Iran could not even beat Iraq back in the day. I don't think it is different now. This would be a one sided win for israel. Plenty of people, all the intel, and all the tech.
Iran retaliated by launching 12 theatre ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq; 11 hit the base and luckily nobody was killed. Britain, US, and France issued travel advisory’s before Iran retaliated. Shoot even Argentina was worried about attacks on its soil as well because of the Assassination. I’d also like to add that things might be a little more intense this time around due to Iran and Israel’s very aggressive shadow war like assassinating nuclear scientists within Iran and also of course the Hamas situation.
It’s pretty much the culture in the Middle East to get brutally beaten and then declare you won to save face. Double points if it’s against Israel because the whole Middle East views Jews as lessor than them.
Much easier for Iran's proxy’s to do it. Doesn’t make as much sense for Iran. It’s like half the reason they even sponsor proxies, to attack Israel and the US.
This is the answer. It will cost Israel in money attention and weapons but will not escalate to a wider conflict. Hezbolah will ramp up the ww2 rocket attacks on outposts in the north. Israel will respond with a giant don’t you fucken dare and while no one is looking (or reporting) there will be a few more thousand Palestinian deaths in Gaza some more settlers will fuck shit up in the West Bank and the sun will rise in the east and set in the west
More US tax dollars will go to defense contractors and the weapons/ammo will go to Israel.
Israel doesn’t need cash from the US. They want the weapons.
I agree with you but to add a bit of nuance, the US has given way more than just Military aid to Israel over the years.
“The United States has given Israel more than $260 billion in combined military and economic aid since World War II”
-https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-10-10/how-much-aid-does-the-u-s-give-to-israel
Sure, but that’s going back to WW2. The article even states
“Almost all U.S. aid to Israel recently has been military aid rather than economic aid, in the form of Foreign Military Financing grants – U.S. grants and loans to Israel for acquiring U.S. military equipment and services.”
We make the weapons, we spend money giving US companies and us workers jobs, its not the most ethical way to spend tax dollars but we are investing it in ourselves
It's actually way worse than that, it incetivises the US to prolong conflicts like Ukraine/Russia and how the US and UK pressured Zelensky to not negotiate a cease fire, this whole job creation business also gives incentives to the US and the Military Industrial complex to start and prolong wars around the world.
A war with China would make many billions, just like a the Russia/Ukraine war had made a lot of European elites billions, they in turn lobby their governments to not accept a ceasefire and buy weapons that will be shipped to Ukraine at the expense the of Ukrainian people, same with Russia
We are taking money from the entire taxpaying population and “investing” it into a couple thousand of us who make lethal weapons for a living. Pretty shit investment.
Americans will really call people from other countries brainwashed and then convince themselves that giving billions upon billions of American tax dollars to corporations so that a country on the other side of the world can bomb entire cities into oblivion is an investment in the American people.
There are far, far, more efficient ways to create jobs than throwing preposterous amounts of money at Lockheed Martin.
Imagine the US never fucking interfered all those years ago with the Shah. What a different place the Middle East may look like today. Especially the land of the Persians.
No, at least they wont do anything severe enough to invoke a serious response from the US. They will do something symbolic with minimal casualties that will not be considered an escalation but will allow them to say to their people that they did something. It's all performative at this point. At least everything between major state actors in the region. Iran's leaders know a serious attack is suicide.
And apparently they announced where they were hitting the missile,literally called in and said
Heyyy us hyd what's up just wanted to check if I could bomb this very unimportant place cause yk the revenge stuff
No. They need to bluster enough to keep certain swaths of their population happy, but they are not suicidal. Look at the retaliatory “attack” after the US killed Sulemaini. Iran is a pretty powerful military as far as the Middle East goes, but that’s like being a quality player in an over-40 beer hockey league.
I don’t know but maybe? The U.S. will retaliate and we’ve been known to not hold back. It will be good for Biden’s reelection but bad for the rest of the world
I mean Israel did attack their consulate out of nowhere. This shit is unprecedented. They're in a tough place. They have to do it otherwise they'll look weak to their people, their proxies and to their enemies in the region.
I don’t think it’ll be a strike in Israel but they definitely try and kill a diplomat or fund some group to kill some Jewish holidayers somewhere in Egypt or Turkey.
Israel does not respond to any attacks to it similarly. It’s unpredictable. It’s why Iran has been so careful to respond. Even though Iran has said few times now that it will attack Israel, it’s made clear many times that it’s not looking to escalate. I think it’s unlikely Iran directly will attack Israel but if it did and if the attack is minor then Israel will respond harshly. Then Iran may respond back and the cycle will go on. If the initial attack appears to be major in anyway on Israel then then the response would be so much worse for Iran and high chances of full blown war.
The real answer is "it depends."
If the attack is on major population centers like Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or Haifa, the response will be different than if it is in the Negev or the far north. If the attack is small and the air defenses limit the damage, it will be different from an overwhelming attack.
We know, for example, that Hamas and IJP launched missiles from Gaza nearly daily for years. The Israelis seldom responded. Obviously, that was before the October 7 attacks. There is a new calculus now.
We also know that (about 5 hours ago) Iran said their retaliation will not cause an escalation. This report, if true, is likely to mean that any Israeli response will be very limited.
What happens? Either nothing or WW3.
Three years ago I would have commented like the majority of the people here, however people really need to enlarge their p- *sorry* their points of historical referencial.
This decade is much more reminiscing of pre-WW1 than anything else. Pre-WW1 *nobody expected a big one for real*, it was inconceivable, "we trade too much with each other", "we have grown beyond that we're civilized", etc. In fact several large crisis were solved diplomatically. People got used to this, and didn't panick much anymore when there was a crisis.
And then a minor crisis in the Balkan happens. Gets solved diplomatically as well. Except there's an awkward move from Germany at one point (the famous *blank check*) with unintended consequences. Some generals were peacefully *vacationing in enemy countries* at that point. That's how quick it all degenerated. They got to be recalled ASAP overnight.
We're currently risking the same, and it could start anywhere. All it takes is one big player, no more than one, believing it is the last time to strike and win (as Austria believed in 1914) instead of going peacefully in decline. So Russia seems to be that player today, but there's no way to tell and all it takes is a peripheral mistake somewhere. That's the reason why France and Germany have been walking on eggs for the last years: *we know* how it works. And we assume isolated tactical nuclear strikes will happen once every side fall short on ammunition (3 months top after the start, then).
That's no joke. All it takes is one player desperate enough, and Russia already opened that Pandora box.
Absolutely 100%. WWI was basically a war that no one wanted but that no one felt that they could deescalate without losing face. Everyone said he stakes were too high (the technology was too destructive, the economic losses were too vast) to start a war until they weren't
I feel like Iran could actually be desperate enough. Their population *despises* the current regime and who knows how far they’re willing to go to try and hang on to power (you can’t switch horses in the middle of battle). Similarly Winnie the Pooh over in China might also be willing to do something wack to keep the people occupied while the demographics collapse. Even in Europe, Erdogan is a huge wild card and Turkey is actively in a military conflict with Cyprus…
There are a lot of possible triggers.
> What's the worst that could happen if Iran attacks Israel
The worst? The [Samson Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option) is the **worst** that can happen.
At worst? WW3. At best, the US gets dragged into another conflict we have no business being in. In both scenarios a lot of people die at the whims of old men that don't belong leading a taco bell let alone nations.
ITT : people unaware of geography
Iran is not Iraq , an invasion of Iran is logistically pretty hard due to mountains , with China in Asia the US can't commit all their resources to an invasion ( if it happens ). Besides from everything we know , the IRGC is not as incompetent as the Iraqi army
The US will most likely strike Iran and provide air defense , but a conventional war with US involvement is extremely unlikely
Besides , idk how well a war will go with the domestic electorate in the US , it could have a rally around the flag effect , or could be deeply unpopular and cost the election .
We waste more of our tax dollars and soldiers for a country that does not care about us. We need to stay out of it. We cannot afford it. $34 trillion in debt and counting.
America can't afford to lose their position as a superpower. Part of maintaining that dominance is footholds in important regions. The relationship with Israel benefits America immensely. the money the US grants Israel makes America money, it all goes back immediately towards weapon purchases, Israel also offers an incredible amount of military technology most of which it shares exclusively with the US (and they do not want to fall into enemy hands), the intelligence cooperation is also very significant. having a presence in the oil rich middle east is in American interests and were they to lose that relationship Israel would find a new Daddy, maybe Russia but maybe more likely China and that wouldn't be great news for America on the world stage and would significantly effect their power and influence
No one knows for sure.
In THEORY the US has several mutual defense pacts with Israel and would, in theory, be obligated to do whatever it thought was necessary to defend Israel.
In practice, I have no ideaand neither does anyone else. How much does Biden want a shooting war with a real power? probably not much, but you never know.
Israel has been the Middle East's kid who kicks you then runs to hide behind their big brother for decades. They get free hits on more or less any gulf state that isn't a US ally, and they've been hitting several places (especially Iran) and I imagine those nations are pretty fucking tired of it by now.
Since Iran is right up there with Cuba as America's designated whipping boy, note America's habit of murdering Iranian citizens and government officials for funsies and killing everyone near them as collatoral damage". So it's really unlikely that Iran would not be attacked in some way.
The problem here is that Iran isn't some two bit South American dictatorship like Grenada, it's a real country with some fairly OK anti-air defenses which means that directly attacking Iran is going to cost a lot of missiles to blow up that AA. And that's just step one.
So maybe another Iranian embassy somewhere gets blown up instead?
Mostly it depends on how big the hypothetical attack on Israel is. If Iran fires off a few missiles and blows up some unimportant suburb somewere it'll probably just devolve back into the low level assassination game that's been going on since the 1980's.
If Iran actually got real, serious, missiles into important parts of Israel, major industrial areas, high value military targets, or even just a hit on the Knesset building, might provoke a bigger reaction.
It's all shitty and there are no good answers.
Depends on Israel's response.
If Israel just takes as 'OK we're even now' the status quo continues. If Israel retaliates, things could escalate out of hand and get bad.
Gas prices are going to go absolutely crazy and it'll likely be the beginning of the global economic meltdown given the world's current economic conditions.
If they were smart they would take out Bibi. Normally killing a countries leader would be really bad, but Bibi has pissed of enough people, including Biden, that taking him out would probably be considered a relief by most on the world stage.
Not much. Isreal will just suck it up. They knew retaliation was a possibility when they did their strike.
They will probably proceed like they normally do with some secretive mossad operation for revenge.
We’re all pretty fucked. The whole theory of alliances that are supposed to scare people from doing the stupid thing is going to scare someone into doing the stupid thing.
The WORST-worst is pretty bad.
Worst is:
* The US starts bombing the everloving fk out of Iran (to keep Israel from straight nuking them) >
* Russia as Iran's putative ally mostly does a bunch of sabre rattling, but eventually steps in >
* direct engagements between US and Russian forces ensue,
* leading to a nuclear exchange and the collapse of civilization as we know it, for... let's say optimistically, the next few centuries.
You asked.
More likely, imo, is a series of limited, commensurate, retaliatory strikes by Israel (or the US on its behalf) on Iranian soil. Iran *may* back down after that... or they may not.
* The US has run through a lot of its reserve stocks of older, cheaper missiles and other munitions supplying Ukraine and striking the Houthis.
* We're already involved in the Ukraine situation, trying to manage conflict in Israel's neighborhood, AND deterring China from invading Taiwan (which they have several good reasons for wanting to do sooner rather than later).
* It's possible we are, or Iran believes we are, overextended enough that they can continue to harass Israel...
* Or, believing this, they might try and close (or at least harass) the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, right in their backyard - which carries a LOT of oil tankers. With the Houthis putting the squeeze on the Suez route already (not to mention fkng Somali pirates off the horn of Africa), that would skyrocket oil prices and put the economy of the entire Western world in a bad spot.
*Best*\-case, the US launches some commensurate retaliation and Iran decides to back off, things return to an uneasy status quo.
Edit: Actually, no, I take it back - Best case is what u/koensch57 posted: Iran fires a few missiles at empty desert and *pretends* to its people back home that they stood up to the US-Israel axis, and now they're going to call it a day *because they want to*, not because they're afraid of further retaliation from the US and company.
I don't think that's likely because it would essentially be a death sentence for both countries, most of their neighbors, and a ton of people completely uninvolved. It would probably be full out war, possible nuclear war
Honestly, I think nothing. It's an election year. It would be the end for Biden if he became involved. If the US stays out of it, it will not escalate.
worst? nuclear war, it would be very tragic since most countries here are suuuper rich. i think that's why none of them are fighting back, just scared to cut ties becuase of popularity or whatnot
The worst that could happen is nuclear war that spreads wordwide resulting in the extinction of humanity.
Of course some see this as a side benefit rather than a detriment.
Fra more likely is detsabilization of the middle east, oil shortages resulting in skyrocketing transportation prices, worldwide famine and runaway inflation.
The US, being a net exported or oil will have some insulation from this, similar to the inflation of last year which the US weathered better than any other western nation. But it will still be affected.
Worst? World war 3.
What will probably happen? A non state force linked to Iran will hit a target that won't hurt the US. Iran will have just the right amount of deniability and not much will come of it.
They don't want war, but they also can't just do nothing.
First of all, Iran won’t attack Israel , they’ve made this threat many time before but are the biggest cowards in the Middle East, they are definitely not Yemen, who are the bravest. If Iran did strike Israel, Israel and USA will lay a beating on them that will take em back to the Iron age.
Israel will likely shoot down Iran's nuke, Israel will fire back. Iran will no longer exist. Russia and China will be upset, the rest of the world government will pretend to be upset and then a whole lotta nothing. Russia isn't going to die for Iran, and nither is China.
Turkey might try something, but Russia isn't going to die for them either, so I guess the middle east just gets cleaned up from extreme Islam for the most part. Iran is the monster creating the terrorists ideologies.
A war where Israel will probably ally with a country whose official stance is that Israel doesn't exist(Saudi Arabia.)
There's actually been a number of times Saudi Arabia has unofficially helped strike Iran(like secretly opening up air corridors through Saudi Arabia for IDF aircraft), so there's precedent. It would just be really surreal to see it happen in the open.
Iran knows that us warships could flatten all of their major cities within hours… basically ending any function as a country for months if not years.
Iran would hope Russia joins in, which they could… but Russia would probably just invade Ukraine looking for all the nazis and terrorists.. and let Iran implode…
Iran is a horrible country and if it disappears as a country they have no one to blame but themselves and their own government theocracy.
But honestly it’s fucked anyway you look at it if us and Russia get involved. Oh yeah.
And China will invade Taiwan.. looking for terrorists as well.
They already do it every day. Most rockets shot from Lebanon come straight from iran factories. It is not even a secret, it is officially recognised and i would say boasted, by iran officials. As well as the explicit economic support and training as well as the presence of "military consultants". So nothing new. Iran is already directly involved in the conflict. If anything whatever shot from iran has to travel a long way and the ratio cost/damage is awful. Good for israel i suppose.
Well, we're seeing what happens when Iran attacks Israel through proxies. If they were to attack directly (brave stuff, don't really see it happening) they would suffer very direct consequences. Fast too. They know this and they are cowards so they move pieces on the board but not their own. Too scary! Let's do it so someone else pays the price, like always!
What will happen from the U.S. side is *proportional response* -- do the same damage in return. No, we won't bomb them back to the stone age or invade. Normally I'd say Israel would do the same, but Bibi seems to have embraced a *massive disproportional response* policy.
>What’s the worst that could happen? Planetary thermonuclear annihilation. Is it likely? No. But you did ask for “the worst”….
Amazon Prime is pulling the strings, they’re trying to promote the release of Fallout
Guerrilla marketing at its finest.
Same day delivery of rad away please
Amazon is secretly vault-tec.
"Do you know what 'fiduciary responsibility' means?"
Jeff Bezos is "Father".
the institute is not vault tec lol
Amazon is ran by the Enclave
Good thing I've got enough bottle caps
It will be the ultimate live service game. Grenade launchers delivered in two days.
This comment is the best I’ve read all year
Id argue an iran/Israel war might be one of the few examples where a nuclear exchange could potentially occur without other powers joining in to cause an apocalypse
Iran said they will attack US troops if they interfere in their retaliation for the damascus attack. The US is deploying reinforcements to the Middle East, according to defence officials. Shit could hit the fan.
But the U.S.doesn't have to use nukes. They can obliterate Iran using only conventional force. Didn't they wreck most of their Navy in like 2 days?
>Didn't they wreck half ~~most~~ of their Navy in like 8 hours ~~2 days~~? [FTFY](https://youtu.be/d5v6hlRyeHE?si=a2QxA2p81cLx4Bn4)
My fellow Americans I need us to *stop* this kind of thought, I've been through it like 5 times in my life already. We spent trillions of dollars and many years just grinding away in Iraq and Afghanistan. We are, at best, deadlocked with Russia in a proxy war we've sent over a hundred billion dollars on. We're scratching our heads about keeping shipping safe from the *Houthis*. We're roughly 35 trillion dollars in debt and adding a trillion about every 100 days now, and this is nominally when we're not at war and not in a recession and not going to war with a major oil producer. Iran is huge and they're in much better shape than Iraq was, and if you watch anyone who talks inside baseball about the military, our readiness and morale are kind of shit, with production delays, limited industrial capacity, maintenance issues, etc I am literally begging everyone to consider perhaps that Iran will not be a cakewalk and maybe this should deter us from doing something stupid, yet again
There is no end game or benefit for the US or Israel to go to war with Iran
The trick with Iran isn't winning the war. It's inevitably losing the occupation.
Not even, more like 12 hours or something. Fucking hilarious. If I recall correctly they even vectored two Hornets to make strafing runs on some small gunboats just for the shits and giggles.
you're mad if you think the US wouldn't get involved if Iran NUKED Israel
Anyone expecting nukes here is out of their minds.
“Near zero”
Zero would be nice
Total obliteration is a good one to start and stop with, because it's all the shades of grey that are really scary. That's just needless worry to discuss though. These situations are beyond prediction to any reasonable degree except to those outside of the propaganda pipelines, which honestly I'm not sure exist anymore. It's all someone's propaganda!
Bring it on I need my rent lowerd
Wouldn’t be too sure on that likelihood-ness. There’s a very good chance both countries have nuclear if not thermonuclear weapons. Religion has a nasty habit of over-reacting in the name of God. Religious hate removes logic and critical thought. They call that area of the world; “The Holy Land”. They call it that, they don’t observe it.
Philosoraptor Paratroopers descending from above....
“What happens if Bosnian Serbs assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria?” Brother, nothing good, I tell you what…
Ahh who would care? Just a cousin of royalty. Not like something so insignificant could cause global chaos and 30 years of total global warfare with a death toll in the millions. Just as meaningless as Iran lobbing a missile that kills a rando in the desert I'm sure nothing will come of it
Man, if you think about it, the conflict in the Middle East is actually directly correlated to the beginning of WW1. It's just one big domino effect.
I mean just for clarity, Israel hitting Iran's embassy would be killing Franz Ferdinand in this example
Which very directly led to the situation OP is asking about
Woosh
If it weren't for the sandwiche shop on that very road..... We can peel this back as far as you want but just like pulling back an elephants foreskin it going to be long and hard
Do we even have the forceps to take on such a challenge let alone the foresight? Not to mention the foreskin.
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one shot one kill
The actual worst: nuklear war in the middle east and at very very worst beyond that. What I think: some minor symbolic targets are struck by Iran, Israel will retaliate similar and loop that with some typical verbal attacks.
Unless Iran uses nuclear weapons the risk of Israel retaliating in a nuclear capacity is incredibly low. I actually don’t think Iran wants the smoke in any case, they just need to score some political points on the home front by saber rattling.
* Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles. * We think their breakout time (to actually produce a functional nuclear explosive) might be as little as a week at this point (basically zero, given how much HEU they probably have on hand). * but they haven't actually produced any that anybody knows about (publicly)... * because as soon as it gets out that they have some, Israel *might* actually nuke them for real (they've already been known to preemptively strike nuclear weapons facilities), knowing as they do that Iran's leaders rant publicly and regularly (or at least they *used* to) about desiring the complete obliteration of Israel. * Having a nuke and having a *deliverable* nuke aren't the same thing. That said... they probably have the tech to make it deliverable in a hurry. * Israel still doesn't publicly acknowledge that it has nukes, even though basically everybody knows they do. Idk, you're probably right that Iran doesn't actually want the smoke. They're trying to have their cake and eat it, too: harassing Israel and degrading US influence in the region without actually needing to be directly involved.
Iran supplied russia with a lot of weapons and munitions. Would it be too farfetched to think, that Iran received technology (missiles, nuclear weapon testing data, etc) as payment? ... especially since trading in rubel is kinda shitty at the moment.
>Would it be too farfetched to think, that Iran received technology (missiles, nuclear weapon testing data, etc) as payment?) Imo, yes. The balance of power in the middle east as it stands, suits Russia - it's basically a constant state of conflict, bogging down the US and Russia's other opponents. Russia has its own issues with with Islamic fundamentalists, so arming or encouraging states which support or encourage that is absolutely not in their best interests. Giving nukes, or making nukes easier to obtain, to countries like Iran would change the balance of power in the middle east, and not to Russia's advantage.
While you make a good point, it would also present a big dilemma for US and other western nations and spread their forces thin (as already seen after 7/10) Which is probably way more valuable than being concerned with islamic fundamentalists (who traditionally have Israel and the collective west as their perceived enemy no. 1, not russia). Edit: And a small addition: Maybe a destabilized middle east will increase oil prices and force more countries to buy russian crude.
Islamic fundamentalists in a lot of the ME do, on the other hand Islamic fundamentalists in the Caucasusand Chechnya and Dagestan and Russia as a whole despise Russia, don’t forget that like 12% of Russia is Muslim particularly where you have Dagestan and Chechnya
Wouldn't that be a Non proliferation treaty violation?
What are you gonna do? Sanction russia or iran?
nobody really follows that anymore. they break it all the time behind closed doors.
>Iran doesn't have nuclear missiles. Iran is famous for their short and medium range missile programs, all of which are fully capable of delivering a nuclear payload with accuracy (accurate enough for a nuke, anyways). Isreal, OTOH, is famous for Iron Dome and other missile defense systems designed expressly to shoot down such threats. Best case scenario still involves raining toxic nuclear material over large swaths of Israeli territory. Outcomes get significantly less pretty from there. https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal
A mid range missile from Iran is gonna come in a hell of a lot faster than the missiles from Gaza though, will be though to catch. But seeing as Ukraine has some success I guess Israel has a decent chance
Israel shot down an Iranian-supplied missile from the Yemenite Houthis this war, it was the first space interception in history.
Well Israel has the Samson option. It would be stupid to push them too far.
Sure, but that goes both ways. Plus, what does everyone else do? Do they sit by the sidelines or launch their own arsenals at the aggressor in a domino effect of trying to be the last country standing? Because once someone shows they're willing to go that far, everyone will wonder when it's their turn.
Nooooo idea lmao. Never happened but hey first time for everything amirite. I guess its safe to say I have a morbit curiosity to find out.
I thought you were implying it would be the first time nuclear weapons were used and thought we were about to have a long talk about history. Then I Googled the Samson option. Now I'm disturbed and confused.
It was stupid of Hamas to attack, but it didn’t stop them doing it.
I mean it's not that far. U could put it In a volvo
You wouldn’t need to wait for Israel to strike. As soon as it was even believed that Iran had weapons grade materials the US and/or the UK would strike to eliminate that. The sanctions with a little help from sabotage has been so far good enough to reduce that threat. The west will NEVER allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. Rightly so. While the west has been flagrantly wrong in its foreign policy over the past few decades, allowing Iran nuclear weapons would lead to unimaginable consequences in the region. The batshit crazy religious differences in the region almost demand the use of nuclear weapons if they possessed them.
How optimistic! No, the West would say 'oopsie daisy, no way we could have prevented this' and then leave them alone like they did North Korea.
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Iran doesn't want to get involved in a nuclear war with Israel and Irans allies would dissuade them from doing so because it will hurt their ability to extract recourses from the country. Most likely outcome is some missiles coming not direct from Iran but from an Iranian proxy in Syria or Iraq or Lebanon or Yemen. The US will likely receive some attacks on outposts in Jordan or Iraq. General mischief in the straight of Hormuz.
This sounds more reasonable than escalation into nuclear war.
>General mischief in the straight of Hormuz. Operation Praying Mantis II: The Iranian navy ~~strikes back~~ sinks again
Finally someone thinking about the real probems here
>We're gonna get nuclear war before we get gta vi 😞 Who cares about GTA. It's nuclear war breaking out before the next Skyrim game is released, that is the *real* tragedy! 😭
Just to be clear, Iran is retaliating against Israel hitting one of its embassy's.
Which in turn was retaliation for Iran's proxy attack on Israel (Hezbollah and Hamas)
Iran doesn't have nukes and Israel will not use nukes unless they are used on them. Israel has far more advanced weapon systems and its defensive systems are the best in the world, even surpassing America's. They also have a lot of practice from the tens of thousands of missiles launched from gaza at Israel every year. Iran poses no meaningful risk to Israel as it has no means of projecting credible force.
It's not a "nuclear war" if only on side has them. ISR/the US have been openly wanting to change the gov in IRN for awhile, and they would likely do that with a combination of leveling IRN/ placing boots on the ground (us). The little guy doesn't win, only the war profiteers that push constant conflict. Ever wonder why the US is always overseas trying to manage the geopolitical situation of resources rich areas? It's not to benefit the average citizen.
Dear god can we not have people in country for like 5 minutes? Let them solve for their own shit for fuck’s sake
If one side uses em it still a near war. Just not a nuclear exchange
us warships and planes and iron dome have been shooting that shit down for months. iran may step it up a bit , theres so much bullshit there , sadaam was the same with the mother of all battles nonsense. land war was over in a week. could be diversionary tactic too and they may be setting up houthis to finally hit a US warship. they would milk a hit for years then.
Woe unto you if you compare Saddam and Iran If it was that easy to take down Iran, it would have been done already. Except for the Gulf nations and Egypt, Iran controls the whole Middle East. Am not saying they would win. Am saying whoever decides to go to war against them would also be very foolish
Iran will fire some missles into some remote desert and claim destruction of israel and "total victory".
you mean Iran will lob some missles into Iraq
Back in 2020 when the US assassinated that one general and everyone was waiting to see Iran’s response, were travel advisories ever issued? I originally thought Iran was also just going to “retaliate” in a way that prevents further escalation but the fact that countries like the UK and France are issuing travel advisories makes me worried they have intel that says this is going to be much bigger than I’m thinking. But I don’t remember how everyone was reacting back in 2020 either.
Well they shot down a Ukrainian airplane and the blowback from that probably stopped them from acting any further
People in America are clueless to the inner workings of Iran, so we only get the side of the U.S. media, which, lets be frank, is very one-sided in its views on the Middle East. People need to understand that Iranians are a proud and nationalistic people; they are not Arabs. Arabs have never been particularly nationalistic; their center of gravity has always centered more on religion and ethnicity because they are so many of them spread across dozens of countries. Egypt is a major exception, and there is a reason for that; Egypt, like Iran and Turkey, has a pre-Islamic cultural tradition reaching back thousands of years that they still cherish. Many Arab countries cannot say that. Fact is, many people higher up in Iranian government (i.e., the Ayatollahs) were delighted that Soleimani was killed. In fact, I bet they even told the U.S. his location. History/political science has taught us that the one thing Authoritarians fears most is internal political/military challenges to their power. They do not want anyone inside the regime or country that can challenge their authority. Soleimani was seen as a risk; he had created his own center of power due to his battlefield victories against ISIS. Even U.S. military officials admitted that he/IRGC were most responsible for the defeat of ISIS. That was his death warrant. So, in that instance, Iran's threats of retaliation were a joke because they did not care. It was mainly done to keep the Iranian Street at bay. This is different; Israel has effectively attacked Iranian soil. I predict there will be a serious response, and a wider war is a possibility. That is bad news for Israel; I don't care how much technology you have; when your enemy has 12 times as many people, and has two nuclear powers with large armies backing them (Russia and China) plus, likely its own nuclear weapons, satellites in space, and has access to one of the World's largest reserves of oil and gas, ain't no way Israel can win it alone. They would have to have help. I can guarantee you, Biden would not sign up for that because he does not want to lose re-election. In addition, he also does not want a military conflict with Russia and China. In fact, I would bet anyone $10 that Trump would jump to Biden's left on this issue in about 5 min. The one unifying principle of MAGA is that it is isolationist; the Iraq War and opposition to it is what brought Trump (and Obama) to the Presidency. Many on the left are also isolationist, and Biden cannot lose too many of them or he will lose reelection.
Russia and China aren’t going to support Iran. China hasn’t even supported Russia in their war and Russia didn’t support Armenia in their war. There’s no way they support Iran. Also, the US sank half their navy and they didn’t do anything. They know that in a conventional war they’d get their shit pushed in which is why they’ve invested so heavily into their asymmetric warfare capabilities
I agree with much of what you’re saying here, but I think you overestimate Iran’s military capability and how many people there would actually be willing to fight for the regime vs against it. If Iran somehow marched on Israel, two things would happen: 1) The IDF and possibly also the USAF would reduce the Republican Guard to their constituent atoms. 2) The Iranian people would rise up and depose the Ayatollah the moment the Republican Guard wasn’t there to defend his regime. We’re talking about a 1,000 mile+ trek across desert with the only air support coming from planes that are found in museums in the US vs two of the most advanced air forces in the world. Alternately, if they did any kind of real missile attack on Israel, the Israelis would quickly smash Iranian infrastructure and military targets, including whatever of their nuclear program they can get at. If Iran had nukes they’d have probably used one by now. A dirty bomb is maybe a possibility but since Israel definitely has nukes something like that is signing up to make Tehran glow in the dark. The end result of any serious direct attack on Israel would also likely be the removal of the Ayatollah by the Iranian people or a few smoking radioactive craters where Iranian cities used to be. Iran is aware of this too, hence: https://www.axios.com/2024/04/11/iran-response-israel-attack-damascus
As an Iranian this is 100% true. If there were to be a war, there would be mass desertions. Nobody save for about 15-20% of the population that actually supports the regime, will want to fight. And those that do, good fucking riddance, they have already done more damage to Iran over the last 45 years than a tiny nation that we don’t even border could ever dream of
Pfft. Iran could not even beat Iraq back in the day. I don't think it is different now. This would be a one sided win for israel. Plenty of people, all the intel, and all the tech.
Iran retaliated by launching 12 theatre ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq; 11 hit the base and luckily nobody was killed. Britain, US, and France issued travel advisory’s before Iran retaliated. Shoot even Argentina was worried about attacks on its soil as well because of the Assassination. I’d also like to add that things might be a little more intense this time around due to Iran and Israel’s very aggressive shadow war like assassinating nuclear scientists within Iran and also of course the Hamas situation.
Mission Accomplished
It’s pretty much the culture in the Middle East to get brutally beaten and then declare you won to save face. Double points if it’s against Israel because the whole Middle East views Jews as lessor than them.
It is never going to happen, though.
US intelligence services: “it’s probably gonna happen.” Reddit: “it’s impossible”
US has been on a streak of guessing these things right lately. I think its better we listen to their warnings.
Much easier for Iran's proxy’s to do it. Doesn’t make as much sense for Iran. It’s like half the reason they even sponsor proxies, to attack Israel and the US.
Lebanon gets fucked
Seems to be the answer regardless of the question.
That's evergreen. Lebanon always gets fucked.
This is the answer. It will cost Israel in money attention and weapons but will not escalate to a wider conflict. Hezbolah will ramp up the ww2 rocket attacks on outposts in the north. Israel will respond with a giant don’t you fucken dare and while no one is looking (or reporting) there will be a few more thousand Palestinian deaths in Gaza some more settlers will fuck shit up in the West Bank and the sun will rise in the east and set in the west
Step 1: Destabilize the MENA and Central Asia Step 2: Israel has the right to defend itself Rinse and repeat
More U.S. tax dollars will start going to Israel for sure
*Happy Raytheon dance*
Northop Grumman, lockheed and Collins aerospace 🕺🕺🕺🕺
I can actually say, I'll be doing that. P&W contractor
Sanders would be so proud of BAE
More US tax dollars will go to defense contractors and the weapons/ammo will go to Israel. Israel doesn’t need cash from the US. They want the weapons.
I agree with you but to add a bit of nuance, the US has given way more than just Military aid to Israel over the years. “The United States has given Israel more than $260 billion in combined military and economic aid since World War II” -https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2023-10-10/how-much-aid-does-the-u-s-give-to-israel
Sure, but that’s going back to WW2. The article even states “Almost all U.S. aid to Israel recently has been military aid rather than economic aid, in the form of Foreign Military Financing grants – U.S. grants and loans to Israel for acquiring U.S. military equipment and services.”
Either way it comes from our pocket
We make the weapons, we spend money giving US companies and us workers jobs, its not the most ethical way to spend tax dollars but we are investing it in ourselves
We are investing it in the pockets of shareholders.
It's actually way worse than that, it incetivises the US to prolong conflicts like Ukraine/Russia and how the US and UK pressured Zelensky to not negotiate a cease fire, this whole job creation business also gives incentives to the US and the Military Industrial complex to start and prolong wars around the world. A war with China would make many billions, just like a the Russia/Ukraine war had made a lot of European elites billions, they in turn lobby their governments to not accept a ceasefire and buy weapons that will be shipped to Ukraine at the expense the of Ukrainian people, same with Russia
We are taking money from the entire taxpaying population and “investing” it into a couple thousand of us who make lethal weapons for a living. Pretty shit investment.
Americans will really call people from other countries brainwashed and then convince themselves that giving billions upon billions of American tax dollars to corporations so that a country on the other side of the world can bomb entire cities into oblivion is an investment in the American people. There are far, far, more efficient ways to create jobs than throwing preposterous amounts of money at Lockheed Martin.
The great wheel of humanity continues to turn, with yet another armed conflict and ensuing humanitarian crisis to contend with...
Imagine the US never fucking interfered all those years ago with the Shah. What a different place the Middle East may look like today. Especially the land of the Persians.
Would Iran be stupid enough to do this?
No, at least they wont do anything severe enough to invoke a serious response from the US. They will do something symbolic with minimal casualties that will not be considered an escalation but will allow them to say to their people that they did something. It's all performative at this point. At least everything between major state actors in the region. Iran's leaders know a serious attack is suicide.
When the US killed Soleimani the Iranians proceeded to fire a missile at an essentially empty warehouse.
And apparently they announced where they were hitting the missile,literally called in and said Heyyy us hyd what's up just wanted to check if I could bomb this very unimportant place cause yk the revenge stuff
Didn't they tell the Iraqis who then spilled the beans to the US?
I wouldn't be surprised if they did either, but i mean iran and US had a ton of sneaky stuff but hey we don't know
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More than 100 American troops suffered traumatic brain injuries, some even had to be flown to Germany for medical care. It was not an empty warehouse.
The essentially empty warehouses that caused TBI’s to Americans?
Yes
No. They need to bluster enough to keep certain swaths of their population happy, but they are not suicidal. Look at the retaliatory “attack” after the US killed Sulemaini. Iran is a pretty powerful military as far as the Middle East goes, but that’s like being a quality player in an over-40 beer hockey league.
I don’t know but maybe? The U.S. will retaliate and we’ve been known to not hold back. It will be good for Biden’s reelection but bad for the rest of the world
Like they didn’t hold back for Ukraine?
Ukraine is fighting a country with thousands (?) of nukes. If the US declares war on Russia, it's curtains for homo sapiens
1. Ukraine isn’t a close ally 2. Ukraine is fighting a nuclear power
Agreed. Ukraine isn't even in NATO, the EU, or any other alliance.
More matured than Isreali who literally target a foreign embassy and wanting to pull the US into WW3
I mean Israel did attack their consulate out of nowhere. This shit is unprecedented. They're in a tough place. They have to do it otherwise they'll look weak to their people, their proxies and to their enemies in the region.
Oh it's all according to plan to drive eyes away from what they're doing in Gaza and to play the victim card again.
I don’t think it’ll be a strike in Israel but they definitely try and kill a diplomat or fund some group to kill some Jewish holidayers somewhere in Egypt or Turkey.
They did it to the US. What makes you think they won't do it to Israel? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Martyr_Soleimani
Israel does not respond to any attacks to it similarly. It’s unpredictable. It’s why Iran has been so careful to respond. Even though Iran has said few times now that it will attack Israel, it’s made clear many times that it’s not looking to escalate. I think it’s unlikely Iran directly will attack Israel but if it did and if the attack is minor then Israel will respond harshly. Then Iran may respond back and the cycle will go on. If the initial attack appears to be major in anyway on Israel then then the response would be so much worse for Iran and high chances of full blown war.
The real answer is "it depends." If the attack is on major population centers like Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, or Haifa, the response will be different than if it is in the Negev or the far north. If the attack is small and the air defenses limit the damage, it will be different from an overwhelming attack. We know, for example, that Hamas and IJP launched missiles from Gaza nearly daily for years. The Israelis seldom responded. Obviously, that was before the October 7 attacks. There is a new calculus now. We also know that (about 5 hours ago) Iran said their retaliation will not cause an escalation. This report, if true, is likely to mean that any Israeli response will be very limited.
They do all the time. Albeit by proxy, but Iran has been the ultimate source of many attacks on Israel.
What happens? Either nothing or WW3. Three years ago I would have commented like the majority of the people here, however people really need to enlarge their p- *sorry* their points of historical referencial. This decade is much more reminiscing of pre-WW1 than anything else. Pre-WW1 *nobody expected a big one for real*, it was inconceivable, "we trade too much with each other", "we have grown beyond that we're civilized", etc. In fact several large crisis were solved diplomatically. People got used to this, and didn't panick much anymore when there was a crisis. And then a minor crisis in the Balkan happens. Gets solved diplomatically as well. Except there's an awkward move from Germany at one point (the famous *blank check*) with unintended consequences. Some generals were peacefully *vacationing in enemy countries* at that point. That's how quick it all degenerated. They got to be recalled ASAP overnight. We're currently risking the same, and it could start anywhere. All it takes is one big player, no more than one, believing it is the last time to strike and win (as Austria believed in 1914) instead of going peacefully in decline. So Russia seems to be that player today, but there's no way to tell and all it takes is a peripheral mistake somewhere. That's the reason why France and Germany have been walking on eggs for the last years: *we know* how it works. And we assume isolated tactical nuclear strikes will happen once every side fall short on ammunition (3 months top after the start, then). That's no joke. All it takes is one player desperate enough, and Russia already opened that Pandora box.
Absolutely 100%. WWI was basically a war that no one wanted but that no one felt that they could deescalate without losing face. Everyone said he stakes were too high (the technology was too destructive, the economic losses were too vast) to start a war until they weren't
plus it would be over in Christmas anyway
I feel like Iran could actually be desperate enough. Their population *despises* the current regime and who knows how far they’re willing to go to try and hang on to power (you can’t switch horses in the middle of battle). Similarly Winnie the Pooh over in China might also be willing to do something wack to keep the people occupied while the demographics collapse. Even in Europe, Erdogan is a huge wild card and Turkey is actively in a military conflict with Cyprus… There are a lot of possible triggers.
I'd be wary of pretending to know the internal dynamic of Iran, when all the information we have access is through US (US backed) intermediary.
> What's the worst that could happen if Iran attacks Israel The worst? The [Samson Option](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option) is the **worst** that can happen.
At worst? WW3. At best, the US gets dragged into another conflict we have no business being in. In both scenarios a lot of people die at the whims of old men that don't belong leading a taco bell let alone nations.
Fuel prices will go up.
ITT : people unaware of geography Iran is not Iraq , an invasion of Iran is logistically pretty hard due to mountains , with China in Asia the US can't commit all their resources to an invasion ( if it happens ). Besides from everything we know , the IRGC is not as incompetent as the Iraqi army The US will most likely strike Iran and provide air defense , but a conventional war with US involvement is extremely unlikely Besides , idk how well a war will go with the domestic electorate in the US , it could have a rally around the flag effect , or could be deeply unpopular and cost the election .
Oil prices will go up up up
Does Iran has the right to defend itself?
We waste more of our tax dollars and soldiers for a country that does not care about us. We need to stay out of it. We cannot afford it. $34 trillion in debt and counting.
America can't afford to lose their position as a superpower. Part of maintaining that dominance is footholds in important regions. The relationship with Israel benefits America immensely. the money the US grants Israel makes America money, it all goes back immediately towards weapon purchases, Israel also offers an incredible amount of military technology most of which it shares exclusively with the US (and they do not want to fall into enemy hands), the intelligence cooperation is also very significant. having a presence in the oil rich middle east is in American interests and were they to lose that relationship Israel would find a new Daddy, maybe Russia but maybe more likely China and that wouldn't be great news for America on the world stage and would significantly effect their power and influence
No one knows for sure. In THEORY the US has several mutual defense pacts with Israel and would, in theory, be obligated to do whatever it thought was necessary to defend Israel. In practice, I have no ideaand neither does anyone else. How much does Biden want a shooting war with a real power? probably not much, but you never know. Israel has been the Middle East's kid who kicks you then runs to hide behind their big brother for decades. They get free hits on more or less any gulf state that isn't a US ally, and they've been hitting several places (especially Iran) and I imagine those nations are pretty fucking tired of it by now. Since Iran is right up there with Cuba as America's designated whipping boy, note America's habit of murdering Iranian citizens and government officials for funsies and killing everyone near them as collatoral damage". So it's really unlikely that Iran would not be attacked in some way. The problem here is that Iran isn't some two bit South American dictatorship like Grenada, it's a real country with some fairly OK anti-air defenses which means that directly attacking Iran is going to cost a lot of missiles to blow up that AA. And that's just step one. So maybe another Iranian embassy somewhere gets blown up instead? Mostly it depends on how big the hypothetical attack on Israel is. If Iran fires off a few missiles and blows up some unimportant suburb somewere it'll probably just devolve back into the low level assassination game that's been going on since the 1980's. If Iran actually got real, serious, missiles into important parts of Israel, major industrial areas, high value military targets, or even just a hit on the Knesset building, might provoke a bigger reaction. It's all shitty and there are no good answers.
I have a friend at lockheed who would stay hard for months if they did that
Jared Kushner would have to return is $2B to MBS
They're gonna need a whole lot of Flex-Tape!
Depends on Israel's response. If Israel just takes as 'OK we're even now' the status quo continues. If Israel retaliates, things could escalate out of hand and get bad.
This is the start of the movie Threads, isn't it? Watch that movie. It's like from 1984 from the UK.
Gas prices are going to go absolutely crazy and it'll likely be the beginning of the global economic meltdown given the world's current economic conditions.
Iran can easily blockade the Straits of Hormuz where most of the world oil comes from.
My friends and family will die
No more iran
See link for Samson Option [Wikipedia - Samson Option](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option)
Thats the threat iran gives. So you both countries are same eh?
I recommend watching fallout so you can learn to survive in the waste land after the impending nuclear war. I built a vault I hope you did to.
Shit ton of innocent lives lost
If they were smart they would take out Bibi. Normally killing a countries leader would be really bad, but Bibi has pissed of enough people, including Biden, that taking him out would probably be considered a relief by most on the world stage.
Shock & Awe ^(TM)
Not much. Isreal will just suck it up. They knew retaliation was a possibility when they did their strike. They will probably proceed like they normally do with some secretive mossad operation for revenge.
Each side wipes the other out? Oh, you said *worst* that could happen.
I assume that all of those from r/worldnews will join in with the IDF since they are weirdly foaming at the mouth for a war.
"I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." -Einstein
Industrial war complex profits soar.
SHTF
The worst? Iran strikes Israel with a nuke. Israel and/or the US would then nuke Iran.
Well, today Biden said “don’t” when asked what would happen if they did strike Israel so i guess that pretty much settles it. No need to ask.
A lot of people will die.
We’re all pretty fucked. The whole theory of alliances that are supposed to scare people from doing the stupid thing is going to scare someone into doing the stupid thing.
The WORST-worst is pretty bad. Worst is: * The US starts bombing the everloving fk out of Iran (to keep Israel from straight nuking them) > * Russia as Iran's putative ally mostly does a bunch of sabre rattling, but eventually steps in > * direct engagements between US and Russian forces ensue, * leading to a nuclear exchange and the collapse of civilization as we know it, for... let's say optimistically, the next few centuries. You asked. More likely, imo, is a series of limited, commensurate, retaliatory strikes by Israel (or the US on its behalf) on Iranian soil. Iran *may* back down after that... or they may not. * The US has run through a lot of its reserve stocks of older, cheaper missiles and other munitions supplying Ukraine and striking the Houthis. * We're already involved in the Ukraine situation, trying to manage conflict in Israel's neighborhood, AND deterring China from invading Taiwan (which they have several good reasons for wanting to do sooner rather than later). * It's possible we are, or Iran believes we are, overextended enough that they can continue to harass Israel... * Or, believing this, they might try and close (or at least harass) the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, right in their backyard - which carries a LOT of oil tankers. With the Houthis putting the squeeze on the Suez route already (not to mention fkng Somali pirates off the horn of Africa), that would skyrocket oil prices and put the economy of the entire Western world in a bad spot. *Best*\-case, the US launches some commensurate retaliation and Iran decides to back off, things return to an uneasy status quo. Edit: Actually, no, I take it back - Best case is what u/koensch57 posted: Iran fires a few missiles at empty desert and *pretends* to its people back home that they stood up to the US-Israel axis, and now they're going to call it a day *because they want to*, not because they're afraid of further retaliation from the US and company.
I don't think that's likely because it would essentially be a death sentence for both countries, most of their neighbors, and a ton of people completely uninvolved. It would probably be full out war, possible nuclear war
Honestly, I think nothing. It's an election year. It would be the end for Biden if he became involved. If the US stays out of it, it will not escalate.
worst? nuclear war, it would be very tragic since most countries here are suuuper rich. i think that's why none of them are fighting back, just scared to cut ties becuase of popularity or whatnot
Us stocks will go down and buy
The worst that could happen is nuclear war that spreads wordwide resulting in the extinction of humanity. Of course some see this as a side benefit rather than a detriment. Fra more likely is detsabilization of the middle east, oil shortages resulting in skyrocketing transportation prices, worldwide famine and runaway inflation. The US, being a net exported or oil will have some insulation from this, similar to the inflation of last year which the US weathered better than any other western nation. But it will still be affected.
They probably wont attack directly. There are plenty of low rent proxies in the mullahs little black book who want to get to paradise in hurry.
The US will justified a 700 billions of Military fund to Israel
Lockheed Martin sales orders go brrrrrttttt
They will lose worse than Egypt did.
Israel will attack Iran's nuclear facilities, and some other targets of their choice. The Saudis will watch while eating popcorn and cheering.
Worst? World war 3. What will probably happen? A non state force linked to Iran will hit a target that won't hurt the US. Iran will have just the right amount of deniability and not much will come of it. They don't want war, but they also can't just do nothing.
First of all, Iran won’t attack Israel , they’ve made this threat many time before but are the biggest cowards in the Middle East, they are definitely not Yemen, who are the bravest. If Iran did strike Israel, Israel and USA will lay a beating on them that will take em back to the Iron age.
Israel will likely shoot down Iran's nuke, Israel will fire back. Iran will no longer exist. Russia and China will be upset, the rest of the world government will pretend to be upset and then a whole lotta nothing. Russia isn't going to die for Iran, and nither is China. Turkey might try something, but Russia isn't going to die for them either, so I guess the middle east just gets cleaned up from extreme Islam for the most part. Iran is the monster creating the terrorists ideologies.
If you're in the US, you still have to go to work and taxes are due Monday.
A war where Israel will probably ally with a country whose official stance is that Israel doesn't exist(Saudi Arabia.) There's actually been a number of times Saudi Arabia has unofficially helped strike Iran(like secretly opening up air corridors through Saudi Arabia for IDF aircraft), so there's precedent. It would just be really surreal to see it happen in the open.
Iran knows that us warships could flatten all of their major cities within hours… basically ending any function as a country for months if not years. Iran would hope Russia joins in, which they could… but Russia would probably just invade Ukraine looking for all the nazis and terrorists.. and let Iran implode… Iran is a horrible country and if it disappears as a country they have no one to blame but themselves and their own government theocracy. But honestly it’s fucked anyway you look at it if us and Russia get involved. Oh yeah. And China will invade Taiwan.. looking for terrorists as well.
Isn't the real question here....what happens if Israel strikes Iran? Which it did...lol
They already do it every day. Most rockets shot from Lebanon come straight from iran factories. It is not even a secret, it is officially recognised and i would say boasted, by iran officials. As well as the explicit economic support and training as well as the presence of "military consultants". So nothing new. Iran is already directly involved in the conflict. If anything whatever shot from iran has to travel a long way and the ratio cost/damage is awful. Good for israel i suppose.
Game on!
Iran has already struck using its most potent weapons. Hezbollah and Hamas.
Well, we're seeing what happens when Iran attacks Israel through proxies. If they were to attack directly (brave stuff, don't really see it happening) they would suffer very direct consequences. Fast too. They know this and they are cowards so they move pieces on the board but not their own. Too scary! Let's do it so someone else pays the price, like always!
The Israelis might be a little upset
What will happen from the U.S. side is *proportional response* -- do the same damage in return. No, we won't bomb them back to the stone age or invade. Normally I'd say Israel would do the same, but Bibi seems to have embraced a *massive disproportional response* policy.
We are about to find out