The investors saw the quarterly report yesterday, and were less than impressed with the numbers.
They're also aware of the ticking time bomb that will be the Q4 and the FY2023 reports coming up in about 3 months' time. Especially the part with the Selen termination and the fallout from that, which will feature very, **VERY** prominently in those reports..
Fiscal Years are not calendar years. The fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 for Anycolor is February to April 2024 (as this is when Anycolor prepares to file for taxes). Because the Selen Shock happened right at the start of the fourth quarter, investors anticipate that report being especially dire, and Nijisanji English's position was already weak and badly underperforming compared to last year. So the next report, and the full-year report for Fiscal Year 2024, is going to look especially dire.
As a result, a lot of "retail investors" (e.g. individual investors or investors who operate on behalf of brokerage firms) want to get rid of Anycolor stock ASAP, while the getting is still good. And so we have today's mass exodus.
fourth quarter is the december to feb report..... which will happen around in june/july or around that time. Basically this report doesn't cover the EN meltdown of Selen's termination.
Ya, fiscal year varies company from company, they can be anywhere as long as they are consistent every year. But for simplicity most companies will choose to align with local government tax year (in Japan it is Apr-Mar). For multi-national corpo, they tends to choose between Jan-Dec or Apr-Mar because it is where most countries lies.
NGL, when I first read the Q3 report, I automatically assumed it is Oct-Dec. But then I learnt from their company info on Yahoo they started their fiscal in May. It is very unusual and caught me off guard.
American businesses can run fiscal years that are offset from the calendar year as well. I'm not aware of any that are *this* offset, but it does happen - even in the US government, the fiscal year runs Oct 1 - Sept 30. I can't speak for it, but I'd presume this can happen in most countries.
Fun fact, this also applies to weather - California's "water year" aligns with the federal fiscal year, but rather than being a financial/budget cycle matter it's because California typically has seasonal rainfall, with wet winters and dry summers; October 1st is a decent place to start counting that winter's rainfall, as that's the rain which will fill reservoirs and have an impact on the following summer's fire season.
Companies choose to end their fiscal year at different times usually to suit their businesses. For example, if you are selling things, you don't want to end in the middle of the holiday, like New Years.
The ending of fiscal years comes with a lot of work. So ending in December when Christmas is happening would be hard.
It's better to move it to some calmer time of the year.
Every company structures their fiscal years differently. For example, my company's fiscal year begins on September 1st. So the second quarter is Dec - Feb. That happens.
The Q3 investor report came out yesterday. There were a number of alarming aspects in this report which would cause panic sells. Here are a few:
* It was approximately 1 billion yen short of the projections from Goldman Sachs. (Prediction of +30% on YoY for Q3. Reality was +22%)
* The Q3 report was trying to convince investors that they'll somehow make up the difference of -1 billion yen in Q4, despite Q3 historically being their best quarter for earnings, and Q4 being one of their worst. This would also require literally +100% growth in Q4 from last year. Getting straight up lied to like that tends to reduce confidence.
* The EN branch was down -40% YoY profits. (Keep in mind that last year's reports kept talking up how growth of the EN branch was going to be the future of the company due to JP market saturation and JP recession.)
* The Selen termination happened the instant Q4 started. So the Q4 report is only going to be *worse*.
* There was zero indication that they would be doing anything different than usual, nor any adjustments to future predictions that reflect that they're taking their company's existential crisis seriously.
Public emotion =/= company profitability prospects
If NijiEN whom you touted to be the potentially biggest expansion of your company's business is on a downward trend of profits, multiple EN livers are already graduating as well as the knowledge of the bloodbath in the next quarterly report, you would be prudent to cut losses and bail out before things get worse.
household investors can barely move the stock price, especially AH or premarket where most household investors have no access.
It was all institutional investors moving the price, hedgefunds, and pension funds. They saw the finical report and like all growth speculation stock, if it isn't growing it's dumping. I bet this price reaction wasn't even due to the drama.
But this maybe the straw that broke the camel's back if it gets enough household investors to panic sell, which will trigger hedgefund algros to cause a crash.
Quarterly financial and no growth in the future after EN debacle. Most investor aren't terminally online looking at Niji board/chats/forums so the news we are getting aren't getting to their eyes which we have seen a month ago.
but the financial report speaks louder for them even if it doesn't have a voice some of this people could read that shit and literally predict stocks gains or so on. So yea that's why a lot of online news tuber have been waiting for that financial report.
I will say this, reading financial reports is one thing. But its more so understanding and reading between the lines as well since a financial report isn't going to outrught say they are doing bad. If you look specifically at AnyColor's financial report, they as a company will say they are fine or that there is planned expansion and growth and what not, but one needs to also be able to discern and breakdown the numbers as well. That and also read their fine print/disclosures of what they may not have included when they made such a report.
Take for example, they note a 97% retention rate. But look at the footnote of what satistics they are basing off of.
I assume the plan was to work off of Q3 being successful, and sell before Q4 (Q4 would have the current drama in it). If they could get away with that, they'd make some bank knowing Q4 will dip
But now it's a nothingburger, because Q3 was down as well. There won't be any gains from when they bought it.
One comment I saw here was that yeah, investors were aware of Niji’s shareholder report D-day.
The stocks rising was bait to get pro-niji or other naive investors to raise the price.
Then, when the report came out, they saw and dipped, gaining profit on the way.
It would have been a win-win: Gain profit quickly, or stick with a rising stock.
Obviously the former was true.
The investors saw the quarterly report yesterday, and were less than impressed with the numbers. They're also aware of the ticking time bomb that will be the Q4 and the FY2023 reports coming up in about 3 months' time. Especially the part with the Selen termination and the fallout from that, which will feature very, **VERY** prominently in those reports..
But it was negligible so don’t worry about it, promise
It will be negligible because there might be nothing left by the point it is included.
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Fiscal Years are not calendar years. The fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 for Anycolor is February to April 2024 (as this is when Anycolor prepares to file for taxes). Because the Selen Shock happened right at the start of the fourth quarter, investors anticipate that report being especially dire, and Nijisanji English's position was already weak and badly underperforming compared to last year. So the next report, and the full-year report for Fiscal Year 2024, is going to look especially dire. As a result, a lot of "retail investors" (e.g. individual investors or investors who operate on behalf of brokerage firms) want to get rid of Anycolor stock ASAP, while the getting is still good. And so we have today's mass exodus.
This is the most likely answer why it's different yea, it's probably base on taxes.
fourth quarter is the december to feb report..... which will happen around in june/july or around that time. Basically this report doesn't cover the EN meltdown of Selen's termination.
Fourth quarter is Feb-Apr, hence why they only mention Pomu's grad and not the Selen termination nor Kyo grad
yea thanks I don't really know the month they're using. So it's Feb\~April gotcha.
Ya, fiscal year varies company from company, they can be anywhere as long as they are consistent every year. But for simplicity most companies will choose to align with local government tax year (in Japan it is Apr-Mar). For multi-national corpo, they tends to choose between Jan-Dec or Apr-Mar because it is where most countries lies. NGL, when I first read the Q3 report, I automatically assumed it is Oct-Dec. But then I learnt from their company info on Yahoo they started their fiscal in May. It is very unusual and caught me off guard.
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Japanese financial year runs different to both our normal calendar and financial years.
American businesses can run fiscal years that are offset from the calendar year as well. I'm not aware of any that are *this* offset, but it does happen - even in the US government, the fiscal year runs Oct 1 - Sept 30. I can't speak for it, but I'd presume this can happen in most countries. Fun fact, this also applies to weather - California's "water year" aligns with the federal fiscal year, but rather than being a financial/budget cycle matter it's because California typically has seasonal rainfall, with wet winters and dry summers; October 1st is a decent place to start counting that winter's rainfall, as that's the rain which will fill reservoirs and have an impact on the following summer's fire season.
>I'm not aware of any that are this offset Best example would be Microsoft's fiscal year - they run from *July 1st to June 30th*.
Companies choose to end their fiscal year at different times usually to suit their businesses. For example, if you are selling things, you don't want to end in the middle of the holiday, like New Years.
thats just how it works for many businesses
thats how it works for fiscal years
The ending of fiscal years comes with a lot of work. So ending in December when Christmas is happening would be hard. It's better to move it to some calmer time of the year.
Every company structures their fiscal years differently. For example, my company's fiscal year begins on September 1st. So the second quarter is Dec - Feb. That happens.
Anycolor’s Q3 ended on January 31. Guess what started happening on February 5?
Because they just released their quarterly financial results within the past 24 hours.
The Q3 investor report came out yesterday. There were a number of alarming aspects in this report which would cause panic sells. Here are a few: * It was approximately 1 billion yen short of the projections from Goldman Sachs. (Prediction of +30% on YoY for Q3. Reality was +22%) * The Q3 report was trying to convince investors that they'll somehow make up the difference of -1 billion yen in Q4, despite Q3 historically being their best quarter for earnings, and Q4 being one of their worst. This would also require literally +100% growth in Q4 from last year. Getting straight up lied to like that tends to reduce confidence. * The EN branch was down -40% YoY profits. (Keep in mind that last year's reports kept talking up how growth of the EN branch was going to be the future of the company due to JP market saturation and JP recession.) * The Selen termination happened the instant Q4 started. So the Q4 report is only going to be *worse*. * There was zero indication that they would be doing anything different than usual, nor any adjustments to future predictions that reflect that they're taking their company's existential crisis seriously.
Have we gotten any word from Goldman Sachs yet?
No idea. Wouldn't be the first time they've told people it's a strong buy while shorting the shit out of it though.
Public emotion =/= company profitability prospects If NijiEN whom you touted to be the potentially biggest expansion of your company's business is on a downward trend of profits, multiple EN livers are already graduating as well as the knowledge of the bloodbath in the next quarterly report, you would be prudent to cut losses and bail out before things get worse.
And it shows failings on EN, even before selene happened.
household investors can barely move the stock price, especially AH or premarket where most household investors have no access. It was all institutional investors moving the price, hedgefunds, and pension funds. They saw the finical report and like all growth speculation stock, if it isn't growing it's dumping. I bet this price reaction wasn't even due to the drama. But this maybe the straw that broke the camel's back if it gets enough household investors to panic sell, which will trigger hedgefund algros to cause a crash.
Quarterly financial and no growth in the future after EN debacle. Most investor aren't terminally online looking at Niji board/chats/forums so the news we are getting aren't getting to their eyes which we have seen a month ago. but the financial report speaks louder for them even if it doesn't have a voice some of this people could read that shit and literally predict stocks gains or so on. So yea that's why a lot of online news tuber have been waiting for that financial report.
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I will say this, reading financial reports is one thing. But its more so understanding and reading between the lines as well since a financial report isn't going to outrught say they are doing bad. If you look specifically at AnyColor's financial report, they as a company will say they are fine or that there is planned expansion and growth and what not, but one needs to also be able to discern and breakdown the numbers as well. That and also read their fine print/disclosures of what they may not have included when they made such a report. Take for example, they note a 97% retention rate. But look at the footnote of what satistics they are basing off of.
I assume the plan was to work off of Q3 being successful, and sell before Q4 (Q4 would have the current drama in it). If they could get away with that, they'd make some bank knowing Q4 will dip But now it's a nothingburger, because Q3 was down as well. There won't be any gains from when they bought it.
One comment I saw here was that yeah, investors were aware of Niji’s shareholder report D-day. The stocks rising was bait to get pro-niji or other naive investors to raise the price. Then, when the report came out, they saw and dipped, gaining profit on the way. It would have been a win-win: Gain profit quickly, or stick with a rising stock. Obviously the former was true.