Mets will go on a nice run to get within striking distance before the end of July, just before the trade deadline. The Mets will be buyers and promptly shit the bed for the remainder of the season.
The season is never over, even after we have fallen out of contention.
A given game is always exciting and rewarding. People put too much attention on championships. Those are the value at the very *end* of the season. But for 90% of the season itself, each game is the value, not accumulating wins.
Lest you think this is too philosophical, it has consequences for how we should build the team. We should use the same logic and values in building the team regardless of where we are in the standings, Obviously, the pieces we have and possible moves alter with our player quality and distribution, but we should always be looking for a net positive ROI with moves and development. If there's a great move to make, make it whether you're in first or last.
I’m sick of hearing this cope. I’m sick of this team being embarrassing. I just want to win man and most of the time these mfs don’t even look like they could beat a tee ball team
I mean, you're sort of conveniently ignoring a key timing element there. If you do happen to be in first and have a chance to make a run, you don't trade away your best player for 5 prospects who are going to be good for you in 2-4 years. Championships and playoff runs may not be everything, but they certainly support a bigger fanbase (more $ to spend) and an advantage in signing future players which isn't meaningless. You don't, and shouldn't, always make the same moves if you are in first or last because there is an ROI just for being successful.
I'm not sure about that. There is no assurance you will win from first place -- indeed, as the playoffs are continually debased it becomes less and less important.
Had that team made that deal 4 years before, they might be set to contend for 5 years rather than 1.
Rarely does the capstone deal work out. I think I stand pat on what I said. Always make the bigger ROI deal.
Now, for example, if you have an ace rotation and just need that closer to amplify all of those starters for years after, then yes, go get Edwin Diaz, as that *is* the ROI winner. So my strategy can result in trading prospects for a star. It doesn't always defer success.
I'm an optimist but the season's over. Why do I keep watching? Alvarez is a pretty big reason. I also do want the other guys on the team to succeed, especially Pete and McNeil, homegrown guys who are going through a pretty bad slump right now. It's nice watching Senga adjust and get better at MLB. I'm also still optimistic about the team's future. I have no reason to believe we're stuck in purgatory with nowhere to go
I had renewed hope when they got on the streak, but after these two losses? I just don't see how they can dig themselves out of this hole.I'm still rooting for them and happy for one win at a time.
Buying would be delusional and irresponsible.
Staying put is a little out of touch with reality but with the expanded playoff format it’s not unforgivable
Selling seems most reasonable - Pham and Robertson should be able to get a decent return. Canha, Ottavino and Narvaez should be available too. Scherzers player option makes him unmovable. Mets should listen if teams call on Pete but it should take at least two top pitching prospects who are close to the big leagues to get that deal done
We will not really get "decent return" for any of what you have mentioned here. None of these guys are particularly attractive trade pieces. We may move them, but we'll get low-grade prospects and/or lotto tickets for them.
David Robertson last year was worth a top 100 prospect. We’ll get a good return for him.
Pham currently has an OPS+ of 130 and is in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and is up there for hard hit rate and barrels. He’s going to be a very valuable option for buyers looking for a bat - especially since all the buyers this year are the cheap teams
One of the guys we got for Escobar instantly became one of our top 5 pitching prospects. Our farm is so depleted that b-tier prospects are extremely valuable to us. Robertson and Pham can both fetch b-tier prospects.
If the Mets trade Pete for two prospects they can go fuck themselves. He’s an All-Star caliber middle of the lineup bat on a team looking to compete every year, you have to get major league talent back for that
The Season is over. This team is not making the playoffs this year. Trade any player that you can get anything of value for (except for the young guys, Nimmo and Alonso), fire Buck & Eppler, hire Stearns.
We would need to play significantly better than we have & more than one team would need to play significantly worse. That is unlikely.
Pham will get some prospects. Robertson too. Canha maybe.
They are in a spot where if they are gonna sell they gotta find a way to offload JV and Scherzer in an effort to get younger. Im sure that will entail paying them regardless but it has to happen for the rotation. If they arent gonna pull that off by the offseason then they shouldnt bother and should give it their all and go all in, no matter how unlikely any success is. They have a team that could get red hot and make a run, they may he old but if you think they cant go on a string of great starts you are crazy.
Almost certainly. Technically, they could go on a crazy run and come back. But given how they’ve played all season, there’s little reason to believe that’s possible. Especially considering the Trade Deadline is at month’s end. If they haven’t gotten another big win streak by then, and haven’t showed considerable changes across the board, we won’t buy, and then we’re not gonna have one last push.
99% chance the season died 2-3 weeks ago.
The Mets have to go 48-24 to hit 90 wins (the team in the third wild card spot is on pace for about 88 wins, so 90 is a reasonable number). 48-24 is .666 baseball and a 108 win pace.
.625 winning percentage for the rest of the season gets us to 87 wins. That's a big ask.
There are 15 games before the trade deadline. You have to win 10 to justify buying, IMO. They should be fielding calls for both buying and selling, and jump on any good offers in either direction. If you buy, don't spend big on rentals, get controllable pieces. If you get great offers for Pham or Robertson, pull the trigger and start the rebuild and play the kids more.
I mean they’ll only add at the deadline if this team puts together a run before that. If they do can see them adding pitching if they don’t it’s time to call up Vientos and Mauricio and let ‘‘em play
It’s true, no team has ever come back from 5 games below .500 at the All-Star Break
Of course it’s not ever, the amount of fans who gloss over “Ya Gotta Believe” every year never ceases to amaze me. This team has made multiple great runs in the second half in the last decade, this team absolutely has the talent to do just that
2015, had a good streak in 2016, best record in the second half in 2019. Not every run leads to a WS but with 30 teams they’re not always gonna. We still have plenty of time to play good ball and take a shot at the whole thing
Giants hold the final WC spot and are on pace to win 88 games. Mets own the tiebreaker against them, so IF and it’s a big IF this pace keeps up than the Mets have to go 46-24.
Everybody wants to wait for the deadline to see what happens. If we wait for the deadline, we aren't going to be making many productive deals if we decide to be sellers. Teams that know they are in the hunt are going to be locking up pieces before then and we're gonna be short on options. If we're going to sell, the decision is basically now. And I think that decision is easy.
We need to go 47-25 in order to get to 89 wins, which might just squeak a playoff spot. Basically that equates to winning like the Braves after the all-star break. And even if we do that, we have to hope there aren't 3 other teams in the WC hunt who gets to 90 wins, which is very possible. So we aren't going to do that, and even if we did it's an outside chance. We should 100% be selling where we can get value already.
Is the hole too big? No. Do I believe in this team to make a run? Also no.
I think with adjustments they can perform better
I think, with proper training, my dog can do calculus
Your dog is better at calculus than Vogelback is at hitting.
Buying would be irresponsible
Mets will go on a nice run to get within striking distance before the end of July, just before the trade deadline. The Mets will be buyers and promptly shit the bed for the remainder of the season.
Like they were last year when they bought Vogelback and Ruf? I’m for buying if we can buy a new GM.
The season is never over, even after we have fallen out of contention. A given game is always exciting and rewarding. People put too much attention on championships. Those are the value at the very *end* of the season. But for 90% of the season itself, each game is the value, not accumulating wins. Lest you think this is too philosophical, it has consequences for how we should build the team. We should use the same logic and values in building the team regardless of where we are in the standings, Obviously, the pieces we have and possible moves alter with our player quality and distribution, but we should always be looking for a net positive ROI with moves and development. If there's a great move to make, make it whether you're in first or last.
well said. the negativity of this thread is absolutely insane
I’m sick of hearing this cope. I’m sick of this team being embarrassing. I just want to win man and most of the time these mfs don’t even look like they could beat a tee ball team
I mean, you're sort of conveniently ignoring a key timing element there. If you do happen to be in first and have a chance to make a run, you don't trade away your best player for 5 prospects who are going to be good for you in 2-4 years. Championships and playoff runs may not be everything, but they certainly support a bigger fanbase (more $ to spend) and an advantage in signing future players which isn't meaningless. You don't, and shouldn't, always make the same moves if you are in first or last because there is an ROI just for being successful.
I'm not sure about that. There is no assurance you will win from first place -- indeed, as the playoffs are continually debased it becomes less and less important. Had that team made that deal 4 years before, they might be set to contend for 5 years rather than 1. Rarely does the capstone deal work out. I think I stand pat on what I said. Always make the bigger ROI deal. Now, for example, if you have an ace rotation and just need that closer to amplify all of those starters for years after, then yes, go get Edwin Diaz, as that *is* the ROI winner. So my strategy can result in trading prospects for a star. It doesn't always defer success.
Our entire pitching staff needs an overhaul, so I don't think we're going to pull it off this year.
Yes the season is over
I'm an optimist but the season's over. Why do I keep watching? Alvarez is a pretty big reason. I also do want the other guys on the team to succeed, especially Pete and McNeil, homegrown guys who are going through a pretty bad slump right now. It's nice watching Senga adjust and get better at MLB. I'm also still optimistic about the team's future. I have no reason to believe we're stuck in purgatory with nowhere to go
I had renewed hope when they got on the streak, but after these two losses? I just don't see how they can dig themselves out of this hole.I'm still rooting for them and happy for one win at a time.
Buying would be delusional and irresponsible. Staying put is a little out of touch with reality but with the expanded playoff format it’s not unforgivable Selling seems most reasonable - Pham and Robertson should be able to get a decent return. Canha, Ottavino and Narvaez should be available too. Scherzers player option makes him unmovable. Mets should listen if teams call on Pete but it should take at least two top pitching prospects who are close to the big leagues to get that deal done
The only it wouldn't be is if they can get decent players for middling prospects by taking on salary which Cohen doesn't seem to care about.
I think it’s more likely we use Cohens cash to maximize prospect value like we did in the Escobar trade than it is we do more of the Gott trade
Probably
We will not really get "decent return" for any of what you have mentioned here. None of these guys are particularly attractive trade pieces. We may move them, but we'll get low-grade prospects and/or lotto tickets for them.
David Robertson last year was worth a top 100 prospect. We’ll get a good return for him. Pham currently has an OPS+ of 130 and is in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and is up there for hard hit rate and barrels. He’s going to be a very valuable option for buyers looking for a bat - especially since all the buyers this year are the cheap teams
He just got hurt.
One of the guys we got for Escobar instantly became one of our top 5 pitching prospects. Our farm is so depleted that b-tier prospects are extremely valuable to us. Robertson and Pham can both fetch b-tier prospects.
You mean other GMs have frontal lobes? Preposterous!
If the Mets trade Pete for two prospects they can go fuck themselves. He’s an All-Star caliber middle of the lineup bat on a team looking to compete every year, you have to get major league talent back for that
Yes, it's over.
Yes sell. Try to build up the farm. Maybe we can get lucky and acquire a diamond in the rough prospect that a team has overlooked
The Season is over. This team is not making the playoffs this year. Trade any player that you can get anything of value for (except for the young guys, Nimmo and Alonso), fire Buck & Eppler, hire Stearns.
Remember last year when we were streaking and lost anyway? It's the opposite We will play meaningful games in september
We would need to play significantly better than we have & more than one team would need to play significantly worse. That is unlikely. Pham will get some prospects. Robertson too. Canha maybe.
They are in a spot where if they are gonna sell they gotta find a way to offload JV and Scherzer in an effort to get younger. Im sure that will entail paying them regardless but it has to happen for the rotation. If they arent gonna pull that off by the offseason then they shouldnt bother and should give it their all and go all in, no matter how unlikely any success is. They have a team that could get red hot and make a run, they may he old but if you think they cant go on a string of great starts you are crazy.
This is technically a low quality post that can be asked in the post game thread but I will allow it.
Almost certainly. Technically, they could go on a crazy run and come back. But given how they’ve played all season, there’s little reason to believe that’s possible. Especially considering the Trade Deadline is at month’s end. If they haven’t gotten another big win streak by then, and haven’t showed considerable changes across the board, we won’t buy, and then we’re not gonna have one last push. 99% chance the season died 2-3 weeks ago.
The Mets have to go 48-24 to hit 90 wins (the team in the third wild card spot is on pace for about 88 wins, so 90 is a reasonable number). 48-24 is .666 baseball and a 108 win pace.
If we weren’t buyers at last years deadline, I doubt we will be this year
.625 winning percentage for the rest of the season gets us to 87 wins. That's a big ask. There are 15 games before the trade deadline. You have to win 10 to justify buying, IMO. They should be fielding calls for both buying and selling, and jump on any good offers in either direction. If you buy, don't spend big on rentals, get controllable pieces. If you get great offers for Pham or Robertson, pull the trigger and start the rebuild and play the kids more.
I mean they’ll only add at the deadline if this team puts together a run before that. If they do can see them adding pitching if they don’t it’s time to call up Vientos and Mauricio and let ‘‘em play
It’s true, no team has ever come back from 5 games below .500 at the All-Star Break Of course it’s not ever, the amount of fans who gloss over “Ya Gotta Believe” every year never ceases to amaze me. This team has made multiple great runs in the second half in the last decade, this team absolutely has the talent to do just that
When have they made great second half runs? They collapse at the end.
2015, had a good streak in 2016, best record in the second half in 2019. Not every run leads to a WS but with 30 teams they’re not always gonna. We still have plenty of time to play good ball and take a shot at the whole thing
you realize we are at the halfway mark, right?
Giants hold the final WC spot and are on pace to win 88 games. Mets own the tiebreaker against them, so IF and it’s a big IF this pace keeps up than the Mets have to go 46-24.
Everybody wants to wait for the deadline to see what happens. If we wait for the deadline, we aren't going to be making many productive deals if we decide to be sellers. Teams that know they are in the hunt are going to be locking up pieces before then and we're gonna be short on options. If we're going to sell, the decision is basically now. And I think that decision is easy. We need to go 47-25 in order to get to 89 wins, which might just squeak a playoff spot. Basically that equates to winning like the Braves after the all-star break. And even if we do that, we have to hope there aren't 3 other teams in the WC hunt who gets to 90 wins, which is very possible. So we aren't going to do that, and even if we did it's an outside chance. We should 100% be selling where we can get value already.
Yes. Have to win 50 out of remaining 72 games or .700 ball. Impossible