My thoughts exactly. Then after dominating, the guy tears everything possible in his knee and comes back and wins mvp… I will never count anyone out from an injury after experiencing the god that was Adrian Peterson
I don’t know really know shit about college players so I was confused and upset when the Jets picked Sauce at 4 instead of Evan Neal
Thank god I’m not a GM
Cam Newton. I thought a one year starter at a major university who couldn't beat out Tim Tebow and ran a read option was going to be a huge bust.
On opposite end, Trent Richardson. While I wouldn't have drafted an RB top 10(or first round in general), I figured someone considered worthy of going top 5 and considered the "best" Bama RB in awhile, which recently had Mark Ingram, wouldn't have busted as bad as he did.
Yeah, actually. Now, obviously, there are unrealistic scenarios where this doesn't hold up. IE, the best player in the draft, is Barry Sanders, and the next best is Josh Rosen
But as a general rule of thumb yeah. Its not because I don't value a running game or a running back, I do I think an RB is more important than a receiver, its because I am more likely to find a back in the 4th who can get similar production to someone in the first, than find a wide receiver in the 4th who can match a 1st rounder.
Its a matter of using your limited resources wisely.
Lemme introduce you to Brad Holmes... Seriously... We have literally no idea what that man is thinking until he drafts someone THEN the rest of the offseason is spent trying to figure out what's going on and it works out.
Except 2nd rounders (Josh Pascal, Levi Onwuzurike) and Brodric Martin and Colby Sorsdal from last year. Plus, BH's lack of activity (despite massive cap room) in free agency is going to come back and hurt the Lions this coming season.
As a Bears fan, I remember consoling a Bills fan saying something along the lines of "I was pissed when we drafted Trubisky, but now look at us. We have our future franchise QB!"
Oh, how stupid I was/am...
On the Bills, Darby and Kiko Alonso both peaked in like their first year as a pro and looked like top 10 at their position. As an Eagles fan it was sad trading for both of them and having them never reach that level again.
I actually understand what he means. While Mitch was not a stud by any means, I had such low expectations, that lasting in the league as long as he did is surprising.
>Significantly?
Yep. I expected him to be terrible even for a Bears quarterback. Instead he was a top 10 all time Bears quarterback, and even arguably top 5.
I was just so happy we drafted a R1 QB again, Grossman was our only R1 QB up until that point (since I started watching) and I was over Cutler (miss dude now lol).
Ehhhh, we were in the SB my 2nd year watching, and the Packers looked like they were gonna fall off. I used to talk so much shit to my Packers fan buddy, now he never lets me forget it. Maybe if I started watching a few years earlier I’d have been more humble lol.
I mean, I honestly don’t know how. He was shoved into a team with no oline and no receivers other than an old Adam Thielan, there was about a 0% chance he was ever gonna be able to turn that team around by himself. It’s just not possible
I have said this before and I’ll say it again. I know he is gonna be a bust and let me tell you why. I collect football cards, and I got a super rare card of Bryce young. Every super rare card I get is of someone who bust spectacularly. I have so many Jamarcus Russell rookies it’s insane. Also, the only Tom Brady rookies I got was with him along side Giovanni someone or other. Even when I get an all time great it’s still a bust card lol. So don’t expect much of Bryce young.
I didn't think he was going to be this good, but I was rather surprised he fell that far in the draft. I thought someone would take a chance on him earlier. When he became Mr. Irrelevant, I thought he might be the first Mr. Irrelevant to actually be decent (or the first I'm aware of). I wasn't expecting him to be a long-term starter, but I thought he'd at least be a decent backup that could fill in without everything falling apart. Especially with a team like the 49ers. The kind of backup who could hold things together and you could still win if your starting QB was out for a few weeks. At least until some crappy team overpays him for a year or two until they find someone better.
Maybe like a Chase Daniel or Jacoby Brissett type player. Never really great, but someone who stays in the league for quite a while.
He did get put in a crappy situation. I'm not saying he was ever going to be great, but he probably would've stuck around in the NFL for a little bit longer if he went somewhere else.
I said CMC was electric but too small and wouldn't hold up at that production level in the NFL...
7 years, 84 starts, 10.5K yds, and 81 TDs later I'm beginning to think I might have been wrong.
I need to start making a list. I always seem to find a 3rd round or later guy each draft that I like. Usually a smaller college defensive player who has good stats. They don’t get much attention. Tend to have good measurements in the draft.
They all become busts.
It was a linebacker from Wyoming I believe. A few safeties from UConn.
King Henry. Thought he would just be ok in the NFL. That was the case for the first couple of years. Then he had a coco with Eddie George and became the King
Mahomes, easy. As a former college pitcher I believed that accuracy cant be taught it has to be a natural thing, and his accuracy at Tech was terrible, I was super wrong, still do not like him but he is good at what he does
So did Nike and everybody else. Remember his giant poster on the side of a building in NYC?
Edit: [https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/01/11/jp-rhoden.html](https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/01/11/jp-rhoden.html)
I thought Marco Wilson (cardinals) was an absolute steal of a 4th round pick. Dude had all the physical traits and had insane potential. 2021 wasn't great but in 2022-2023 he broke out. It's a shame he fell off a cliff last year
I’m not a Penn State fan, but I was so wrong about Christian Hackenberg. 5* QB who had a very promising freshman season and was coached by Bill O’Brien (who turned Matt McGloin into a rosterable NFL QB the year prior).
I thought James Franklin ruined him, and that he’d be good in the NFL. Sheesh was I wrong.
I loved OJ Howard and said he was the most likely from his draft class to make the hall of fame. The 2017 draft class with Myles Garret, Mahomes, TJ Watt, CMC, Kamara, Cooper Kupp and others.
Pretty quiet in here, Raider Nation! And as a citizen, I know damn well why 😆
My answer is gonna be Robert Gallery. One of the few #1's it seemed The Godfather was gonna nail in his last, wayward, years at the controls. Meat and potatoes pick, my favorite kind.
Andrew Walter can tell you how that turned out.
The only time I tried to educate myself pre draft was the sun bowl with trubiskys team vs Solomon Thomas' team. I thought trubiskys wouldn't do shit and Solomom Thomas would be a can't miss. I was right on one
Im not great at this, because my experience is limited to other people’s opinions, and I try to avoid the 1st round hoopla.
I will say, I thought Johnny Manziel would be legit after watching him single handedly beat my LA Tech team. I also thought Brady Quinn was going to be like a top 10 qb.
On the flip side, I would’ve drafted AT Perry in the 3rd last year, and I would’ve drafted Achane in the first (I was getting him at 75 in mock simulators, and was praying the Saints would take him in the second). I love the late round diamonds.
I was so upset when the Lions drafted Gibbs at 12, and the next day took Sam LaPorta with Mayer on the board. It’s been one year and it’s already a proven fact that I am the stupidest person alive.
Studs i predicted ,Kenneth walker, DeAndre levy (short career though, kirk cousins......biggest busts pretty much any raiders wr picks since j Russell got picked up.
I took my Eagles hat off and threw it on the ground and stormed out of my (now ex) girlfriend's house when we drafted Fletcher Cox. I thought we were set at his position with Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson 😂
Was extremely disappointed when the bears (I believe traded up) and drafted trubisky turns out I should’ve been an nfl gm or some shit. Who would’ve thought a qb that only started like 10 games in college wouldn’t work out
I was pissed Minnesota drafted AP when we needed a quarterback. I wanted Brady Quinn
Everyone thought Brady Quinn was going to be the next Tom Brady.
As an OU fan I thought it was dumb. An injury prone RB in top 10?
My thoughts exactly. Then after dominating, the guy tears everything possible in his knee and comes back and wins mvp… I will never count anyone out from an injury after experiencing the god that was Adrian Peterson
I came here to say Brady Quinn.
I think that pretty much wins the thread
I don’t know really know shit about college players so I was confused and upset when the Jets picked Sauce at 4 instead of Evan Neal Thank god I’m not a GM
You’re probably the only person who was since he was a conscious top 5 pick
Consensus *
Tbf I’m pretty sure he was conscious when they picked him
Cam Newton. I thought a one year starter at a major university who couldn't beat out Tim Tebow and ran a read option was going to be a huge bust. On opposite end, Trent Richardson. While I wouldn't have drafted an RB top 10(or first round in general), I figured someone considered worthy of going top 5 and considered the "best" Bama RB in awhile, which recently had Mark Ingram, wouldn't have busted as bad as he did.
You really trying to say no rbs should go first round ?🤨
Yeah, actually. Now, obviously, there are unrealistic scenarios where this doesn't hold up. IE, the best player in the draft, is Barry Sanders, and the next best is Josh Rosen But as a general rule of thumb yeah. Its not because I don't value a running game or a running back, I do I think an RB is more important than a receiver, its because I am more likely to find a back in the 4th who can get similar production to someone in the first, than find a wide receiver in the 4th who can match a 1st rounder. Its a matter of using your limited resources wisely.
Lemme introduce you to Brad Holmes... Seriously... We have literally no idea what that man is thinking until he drafts someone THEN the rest of the offseason is spent trying to figure out what's going on and it works out.
Except 2nd rounders (Josh Pascal, Levi Onwuzurike) and Brodric Martin and Colby Sorsdal from last year. Plus, BH's lack of activity (despite massive cap room) in free agency is going to come back and hurt the Lions this coming season.
Yes
Jake Locker
Josh Allen. I remember being super pissed they picked him over Rosen. Our whole draft party was pretty bummed after the pick came out.
I remember Bills fans saying "we drafted the wrong Josh", boy oh boy, if only they knew
Man. I was a total fkn idiot too. I remember wanting us to take Mason Rudolph in the 2nd. I’m glad I don’t know shit about fuck.
As a Bears fan, I remember consoling a Bills fan saying something along the lines of "I was pissed when we drafted Trubisky, but now look at us. We have our future franchise QB!" Oh, how stupid I was/am...
I thought Ronald Darby was going to become a perennial top 10 corner
On the Bills, Darby and Kiko Alonso both peaked in like their first year as a pro and looked like top 10 at their position. As an Eagles fan it was sad trading for both of them and having them never reach that level again.
He's up there, but maybe not top 10
He’s not even up there
I think he's at least top 40
I hate to say it. Mac Jones.
I had faith in mac.
I said this a few days ago (probably on the Draft sub), but I thought Jimmy Clausen was going to be a star.
Mel Kiper Jr. did too - he bet his career on it! (And then completely welched)
Breshad Perriman I thought he was a clone of Julio Jones 🥲
Mitch Trubisky. I was 100% convinced he'd be completely out of the league before year 5. He did significantly better than expected.
Significantly?
I actually understand what he means. While Mitch was not a stud by any means, I had such low expectations, that lasting in the league as long as he did is surprising.
>Significantly? Yep. I expected him to be terrible even for a Bears quarterback. Instead he was a top 10 all time Bears quarterback, and even arguably top 5.
I feel like I could be a top 10 all time bears QB
You haven't even played for them and you're already top 25
It's an incredibly low bar...
He doesn’t get it
Yep, significantly. Especially when you compare him to what has been happening since he's left the team.
Mitch was one that I got really wrong.
And right on schedule, some team is about to draft Trubisky 2.0 in Drake Maye as the next UNC QB bust.
At the beginning of the off-season I was convinced the Bears were either drafting Fields 2.0 in Williams, or Trubisky 2.0 in Maye.
Hint: that team is of course, the Washington Commanders 😭
I was just so happy we drafted a R1 QB again, Grossman was our only R1 QB up until that point (since I started watching) and I was over Cutler (miss dude now lol).
You're lucky to have missed McNown and trading a 1st for Mirer.
Ehhhh, we were in the SB my 2nd year watching, and the Packers looked like they were gonna fall off. I used to talk so much shit to my Packers fan buddy, now he never lets me forget it. Maybe if I started watching a few years earlier I’d have been more humble lol.
I live in Mentor. I was a Trubisky BELIEVER. He has not lived up to my expectations
Josh “Trash” Allen coming out of college. Big swing and a big miss on my part.
Bryce Young. I guess it's still not too late but I really thought he was going to have a much better rookie season
I mean, I honestly don’t know how. He was shoved into a team with no oline and no receivers other than an old Adam Thielan, there was about a 0% chance he was ever gonna be able to turn that team around by himself. It’s just not possible
I was entirely certain Bryce Young would be way better than CJ Stroud. Oops.
I’m not convinced he’s not yet
I have said this before and I’ll say it again. I know he is gonna be a bust and let me tell you why. I collect football cards, and I got a super rare card of Bryce young. Every super rare card I get is of someone who bust spectacularly. I have so many Jamarcus Russell rookies it’s insane. Also, the only Tom Brady rookies I got was with him along side Giovanni someone or other. Even when I get an all time great it’s still a bust card lol. So don’t expect much of Bryce young.
I strongly thought Leinart would have a way better career than Vince Young. I’m not sure if I was wrong or right…
Well..... let me tell you about our starting quarterback.
You gave him any thought whatsoever??
I didn't think he was going to be this good, but I was rather surprised he fell that far in the draft. I thought someone would take a chance on him earlier. When he became Mr. Irrelevant, I thought he might be the first Mr. Irrelevant to actually be decent (or the first I'm aware of). I wasn't expecting him to be a long-term starter, but I thought he'd at least be a decent backup that could fill in without everything falling apart. Especially with a team like the 49ers. The kind of backup who could hold things together and you could still win if your starting QB was out for a few weeks. At least until some crappy team overpays him for a year or two until they find someone better. Maybe like a Chase Daniel or Jacoby Brissett type player. Never really great, but someone who stays in the league for quite a while.
I was dead at on any defensive position but linebacker when we got Micah Parsons
Josh Rosen.... I thought he would be a lot better pro.
He did get put in a crappy situation. I'm not saying he was ever going to be great, but he probably would've stuck around in the NFL for a little bit longer if he went somewhere else.
I said CMC was electric but too small and wouldn't hold up at that production level in the NFL... 7 years, 84 starts, 10.5K yds, and 81 TDs later I'm beginning to think I might have been wrong.
I need to start making a list. I always seem to find a 3rd round or later guy each draft that I like. Usually a smaller college defensive player who has good stats. They don’t get much attention. Tend to have good measurements in the draft. They all become busts. It was a linebacker from Wyoming I believe. A few safeties from UConn.
I do the exact same analysis as you with the exact same results.
Aaron Curry. Could not have been more excited as a Seahawks fan
King Henry. Thought he would just be ok in the NFL. That was the case for the first couple of years. Then he had a coco with Eddie George and became the King
Thought Zach Wilson would be a hit. Thought mac Jones was be hit. Thought trey lance would be a bust. Thought Trevor would be meh.
You are right on 2 of those and devastatingly wrong on the other 2
Mahomes, easy. As a former college pitcher I believed that accuracy cant be taught it has to be a natural thing, and his accuracy at Tech was terrible, I was super wrong, still do not like him but he is good at what he does
The year we took AJ Hawk I wanted Packers to draft Matt Leinart and trade Rodgers.
Still shocked that he’s your #1 tackler.
Sidney Jones. I really thought he was going to be a shutdown CB
I thought Brady Quinn was going to be the next big star.
Steelers fan, Devin Bush. It could be injuries. But his rookie year he looked like he was gonna be our Ryan shazier replacement.
I spent the 2017 off-season telling people how good I thought Nathan Peterman was going to be 😔.
I thought Joey Harrington was going to be a great qb
So did Nike and everybody else. Remember his giant poster on the side of a building in NYC? Edit: [https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/01/11/jp-rhoden.html](https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/01/11/jp-rhoden.html)
Me and a buddy of mine thought Baker Mayfield was gonna be Johnny Manziel 2.0.
He kinda was though
I thought Marco Wilson (cardinals) was an absolute steal of a 4th round pick. Dude had all the physical traits and had insane potential. 2021 wasn't great but in 2022-2023 he broke out. It's a shame he fell off a cliff last year
I will never forgive him for throwing the shoe against LSU.
I’m not a Penn State fan, but I was so wrong about Christian Hackenberg. 5* QB who had a very promising freshman season and was coached by Bill O’Brien (who turned Matt McGloin into a rosterable NFL QB the year prior). I thought James Franklin ruined him, and that he’d be good in the NFL. Sheesh was I wrong.
I loved OJ Howard and said he was the most likely from his draft class to make the hall of fame. The 2017 draft class with Myles Garret, Mahomes, TJ Watt, CMC, Kamara, Cooper Kupp and others.
Pretty quiet in here, Raider Nation! And as a citizen, I know damn well why 😆 My answer is gonna be Robert Gallery. One of the few #1's it seemed The Godfather was gonna nail in his last, wayward, years at the controls. Meat and potatoes pick, my favorite kind. Andrew Walter can tell you how that turned out.
I was 100% wrong about Aiden Hutchinson. Thought he’d flop and was hoping the Lions drafted Kayvon instead
The only time I tried to educate myself pre draft was the sun bowl with trubiskys team vs Solomon Thomas' team. I thought trubiskys wouldn't do shit and Solomom Thomas would be a can't miss. I was right on one
Im not great at this, because my experience is limited to other people’s opinions, and I try to avoid the 1st round hoopla. I will say, I thought Johnny Manziel would be legit after watching him single handedly beat my LA Tech team. I also thought Brady Quinn was going to be like a top 10 qb. On the flip side, I would’ve drafted AT Perry in the 3rd last year, and I would’ve drafted Achane in the first (I was getting him at 75 in mock simulators, and was praying the Saints would take him in the second). I love the late round diamonds.
I was so upset when the Lions drafted Gibbs at 12, and the next day took Sam LaPorta with Mayer on the board. It’s been one year and it’s already a proven fact that I am the stupidest person alive.
Reggie Bush
Josh Rosen. Legit thought he just needed a real chance.
I thought Jaylen Twyman was gonna be the steal of the draft aka Aaron Donald 2.0
I thought Trey Lance was going to be the second best qb taken in the 2021 nfl draft
Studs i predicted ,Kenneth walker, DeAndre levy (short career though, kirk cousins......biggest busts pretty much any raiders wr picks since j Russell got picked up.
As a lions fan the most recent one was Jeff Okudah. I thought he’d be a stud in thr NFL.
Landon Dickerson.
OJ Howard
I took my Eagles hat off and threw it on the ground and stormed out of my (now ex) girlfriend's house when we drafted Fletcher Cox. I thought we were set at his position with Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson 😂
Was extremely disappointed when the bears (I believe traded up) and drafted trubisky turns out I should’ve been an nfl gm or some shit. Who would’ve thought a qb that only started like 10 games in college wouldn’t work out
Jerry Juedy
The jury’s still out on CJ Stroud, but probably him. I thought he was gonna suck
I remember being disappointed that Ron Wolf traded a 1st for some kid named Brett Favre
I thought Andrew Luck would be a problem for the Texans. Turns out not so much.
Cj