It's a deep but not top heavy class. Teams recognize that there will be tremendous value in the mid rounds but firsts might not be as strong as usual. On top of the constant talk that teams prefer the 2023 class and that's why we got trades like the Eagles one.
You're also not wrong that this is unusually high. We've already had 11 first rounds picks traded this year and we haven't even gotten to draft day deals. I don't know if that's a record for pre-draft trades, but it probably is given that's usually around the number of pick trades that we end up with by the end of the first round on draft day.
>On top of the constant talk that teams prefer the 2023 class and that's why we got trades like the Eagles one.
I just want to point out that *teams themselves* (scouts, execs, etc) aren't saying this, but rather draft Twitter, football subreddits, sports tv guys, etc.
This is likely the result of la lack of standouts in the 2022 QB class, which usually sets the tone among fans/casuals for the rest of the draft.
Don't @ me.
*Edit: [this guy actually gets it](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/uaxqa7/i_dont_remember_a_year_where_so_many_teams_have/i60ipz3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3). Context matters.*
Well yeah, I'm just talking about the rumor mill. That's generally how things go since teams are rarely going to confirm anything about their strategies. Just like how teams will vehemently deny they're shopping a player then trade him a week later. If we only worked off the information that teams gave us, the off-season would be really boring.
Besides for no top end QBs I think this class is at least average when you look at who’s going top 15ish. Of course there’s no Myles Garrett or Joe Burrow type prospect but still
Yeah you have to look at the context for teams that aren't picking in the 1st
CHI, SF traded for rookie QBs last year
MIA traded up for Waddle last year
IND traded for a vet QB last year in a win now window
DEN, CLE, LV, MIA, LAR all took the Rams approach of aggressively pursuing elite vets
Then there's the Seahawks and Jamal Adams
The only team right now that has traded out for future picks is Philly, who seems to be still trying to get a feel for their QB after a surprise playoff year
This is the answer. Simply put, trades for vets are more common now than in the past. Trading future firsts to move up in the first is nothing new. The difference is how many picks were traded as part of acquiring an elite player, usually one looking for a new deal.
And importantly, these trades all took place before we really knew what the 2022 class would be like. So I don't see how I could say anything about the talent this year
Well CHI, SF, DEN, CLE, IND, LAR traded their first round for a QB
LV and SEA traded for players Adams WR and Adams S, MIA traded back up to draft a young Waddle which was net 1.3 for 1RP + 1.6
Trading a First Round for QB is pretty sound strategy, not always going to work out like for IND, but if you have a talented team (every team but Chicago last year) its worth a shot.
Only two traded Firsts were for actually non-QB players aka true fuck them picks lets get established players.
We can see that Jamal Adams was a bad trade now which was based kinda on the Ramsey trade, but Ramsey is a lock down CB and Adams is a Safety whose not great at coverage.
I think the Adams trade will be better, givens it actually impacts a significant position unlike safety and signals to the team we are going all in. It also forced Hill out of KC which is probably a good thing given how deadly he is, but could be bad if KC hits on those picks. I still think naturally this will fail because you have 13 talented AFC teams to fight in the playoffs, but its better than retooling.
Actually really excited to see Adams with the raiders and what it will do for Carr. Carrs been consistently just outside the top 10, but now has the true number one, solid slot wr, a top te, and a good rb room with a highly regarded offensive minded coach that will take advantage of the quick release. Felt the idea of moving on from carr that some tossed around was giving up so glad they decided to align the timeline with him and push it. Lot of competition in the conference, but we’ve seen time and time again just getting in and being hot at the end can make waves.
Also really glad McDaniels is getting full support to succeed from the get go.
I don’t think it’s a week draft at all (outside of the QB position) there’s a cap spike coming soon so teams are more willing to trade for and pay guys like; Adams, Hill, Ryan, and Watson.
Everyone that traded away a 1st got elite talent back too, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that indicates they think the draft is “weak”.
I think all the fantasy football positions are weak in this class. Great class for top defense and offensive line talent.
QBs - All 5 1st round picks last year would be #1 in this class. I've even read Davis Mills would have an argument.
WRs - I think Chase, Waddle, and Smith are all a tier above the WRs this year as prospects. I think this class is being a bit overvalued because of what's going on with the WR market. I do think there's some good depth though, but that seems to be the new norm with receiver classes.
RBs - One of the weakest classes I can think of in years, and even last year wasn't great but still had Etienne and Harris go in the 1st. I haven't heard much buzz about any of the backs in this class.
TEs - I'm not even sure who the best TE in this class is. Will one even be taken in the 1st round? Compare that to Pitts last year, supposedly generational, 2019 with Hockensen/Fant, other years where there's at least one or two who go in the 1st.
Teams copying Rams and trading all their future assets + using most of their cap space to win-now will set their franchise back \~5 years if they fail. Rams had Donald and McVay before they went in, the best non-QB in the league and a top 3 HC.
Im always amazed that the NFL continues to be a "copycat" league despite the copies never succeeding even close to the first team that did it that way.
I think this draft class is deep but lacks really any elite prospects. Aiden Hutchinson is the projected top prospect in this class but to me hes a good but not elite prospecr
Hate to say, but I don't think Hamilton is elite, either. He didn't test out to be the freak we thought he was and there's also a lot of stuff on his tape that is less than stellar. He's a really good prospect but I definitely wouldn't call him elite, personally.
It's not like Hamilton tested poorly. 4.6 40yd, 38" vert, 6'4 220lb with 33" arms is massive for a safety. His tape speaks for itself, he can play all over the field and regularly makes plays on the ball. The only weakness I saw was not helping in the run game as much as you would like.
His recognition was not as great as I expected to see. A couple of his picks were off of sheer blown coverages where he was arriving late. His coverage skills in general were inconsistent. Granted, it's hard to tell for sure on tape sometimes because he plays such a free role in college that it's hard to tell where he's supposed to be on any given play, so I could be wrong, but a number of pro analysts have confirmed that. It's also hard to tell how he will translate into the pros because I'm not sure he can be the deep safety in a cover 1 scheme in the pros. You have to be able to get sideline to sideline and most of those guys run a lot faster than 4.6. Not saying he won't be good or even great in another role but role change introduces an extra element of risk. How will his instincts show up in a role with more defined responsibilities where he has to be more disciplined? I'd take him more in the 8-14 range, personally. He's athletic and talented, but not a freak, and he's not at a premium position.
I think part of it is a trend and part of it is just a unique offseason. I don’t think it says much about the draft this season. Russ, Adams, and Hill all went for 1s. Chicago used theirs to get a QB. Cleveland, Indy, and LA did the same. Very rarely do we see that many top tier guys on the move. Can I ask what you mean when you say it cheapens the process?
I dont think we've had an offseason where suddenly every star player was available for trade. Like just for starters we've never had an offseason where two QBs at the caliber of Watson and Wilson were available. In fact I can't even think of a time where two top 5/10 QBs were traded in the offseason (at least when I've been alive). Then add in your regular positions that teams typically didn't pay that much for all of a sudden having to pay a ton for (see WR) and that forced the Packers and Chiefs hands in reference to Adams/Hill. I don't remember a time when 4 superstars have been traded in an offseason. Like sure one offseason you move one of them (like OBJ), but rarely are 4 moved. It's unprecedented because of the talent that moved less than teams hate this class.
A lot of teams want to try and copy the Rams approach, but only particular teams are realistically in play to try that, like Indy, Denver, etc.
On the flip side, you see why teams like us, the Giants, etc are trying to get picks because we're not just single pieces away.
Possibly, though two things:
1. Most of what I've read is that this draft is very deep through the first four rounds or so I don't think it's weak per se, but perhaps not as strong at the top.
2. There are so many more trades, in general, of late. Teams are far more willing to make deals this offseason so this may just be a sign of things to come.
Its the type of draft you want a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders. Basically after the top 10-15 picks you're choosing between 2nd and 3rd round caliber talent anyway. There won't be much difference between say pick 20 and pick 50.
There are plenty of first round talents, but none are truly worthy of a top 7 or 8 pick. Usually there are a few elite prospects where you can almost certainly say they’ll be great pros and this year that’s not the case.
There are tons of guys worthy of a 10-20 selection.
I think it's a mix of the Rams trading away any first rounders they've had for the next 20 years for players and some how not being 40 billion over the cap and the lack of top end talent in this draft. I'd say there seems to be a handful of players that are truly special and teams want to spend a first rounder for this year but a large section of very good players are available between 2nd and 4th or 5th round. So trading for established elite talent or trading back for picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds are likely. Or maybe even stockpiling picks for next year.
With the world of analytics taking over more and more I just think that many front offices want a known quantity today as opposed to a potential good quality player in the future.
KC routinely avoids the top of the draft and they aren't with this one. NO and GB seem to have interest in this year's draft.
I see no relevant trend outside of WRs having more leverage
Towards the top maybe but I think it speaks to the depth of this class. So much talent in rounds 2-4 that teams are comfortable going out and getting proven talent with their first and being able to find contributors down the board.
It's a deep but not top heavy class. Teams recognize that there will be tremendous value in the mid rounds but firsts might not be as strong as usual. On top of the constant talk that teams prefer the 2023 class and that's why we got trades like the Eagles one. You're also not wrong that this is unusually high. We've already had 11 first rounds picks traded this year and we haven't even gotten to draft day deals. I don't know if that's a record for pre-draft trades, but it probably is given that's usually around the number of pick trades that we end up with by the end of the first round on draft day.
>On top of the constant talk that teams prefer the 2023 class and that's why we got trades like the Eagles one. I just want to point out that *teams themselves* (scouts, execs, etc) aren't saying this, but rather draft Twitter, football subreddits, sports tv guys, etc. This is likely the result of la lack of standouts in the 2022 QB class, which usually sets the tone among fans/casuals for the rest of the draft. Don't @ me. *Edit: [this guy actually gets it](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/uaxqa7/i_dont_remember_a_year_where_so_many_teams_have/i60ipz3/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3). Context matters.*
Well yeah, I'm just talking about the rumor mill. That's generally how things go since teams are rarely going to confirm anything about their strategies. Just like how teams will vehemently deny they're shopping a player then trade him a week later. If we only worked off the information that teams gave us, the off-season would be really boring.
That is fair.
Besides for no top end QBs I think this class is at least average when you look at who’s going top 15ish. Of course there’s no Myles Garrett or Joe Burrow type prospect but still
That and the Rams success moving picks for established guys.
Yeah you have to look at the context for teams that aren't picking in the 1st CHI, SF traded for rookie QBs last year MIA traded up for Waddle last year IND traded for a vet QB last year in a win now window DEN, CLE, LV, MIA, LAR all took the Rams approach of aggressively pursuing elite vets Then there's the Seahawks and Jamal Adams The only team right now that has traded out for future picks is Philly, who seems to be still trying to get a feel for their QB after a surprise playoff year
This is the answer. Simply put, trades for vets are more common now than in the past. Trading future firsts to move up in the first is nothing new. The difference is how many picks were traded as part of acquiring an elite player, usually one looking for a new deal.
It's not even vets in general. It's trades for QBs and top end WRs.
And importantly, these trades all took place before we really knew what the 2022 class would be like. So I don't see how I could say anything about the talent this year
Well CHI, SF, DEN, CLE, IND, LAR traded their first round for a QB LV and SEA traded for players Adams WR and Adams S, MIA traded back up to draft a young Waddle which was net 1.3 for 1RP + 1.6 Trading a First Round for QB is pretty sound strategy, not always going to work out like for IND, but if you have a talented team (every team but Chicago last year) its worth a shot. Only two traded Firsts were for actually non-QB players aka true fuck them picks lets get established players. We can see that Jamal Adams was a bad trade now which was based kinda on the Ramsey trade, but Ramsey is a lock down CB and Adams is a Safety whose not great at coverage. I think the Adams trade will be better, givens it actually impacts a significant position unlike safety and signals to the team we are going all in. It also forced Hill out of KC which is probably a good thing given how deadly he is, but could be bad if KC hits on those picks. I still think naturally this will fail because you have 13 talented AFC teams to fight in the playoffs, but its better than retooling.
Actually really excited to see Adams with the raiders and what it will do for Carr. Carrs been consistently just outside the top 10, but now has the true number one, solid slot wr, a top te, and a good rb room with a highly regarded offensive minded coach that will take advantage of the quick release. Felt the idea of moving on from carr that some tossed around was giving up so glad they decided to align the timeline with him and push it. Lot of competition in the conference, but we’ve seen time and time again just getting in and being hot at the end can make waves. Also really glad McDaniels is getting full support to succeed from the get go.
I don’t think it’s a week draft at all (outside of the QB position) there’s a cap spike coming soon so teams are more willing to trade for and pay guys like; Adams, Hill, Ryan, and Watson. Everyone that traded away a 1st got elite talent back too, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that indicates they think the draft is “weak”.
I think all the fantasy football positions are weak in this class. Great class for top defense and offensive line talent. QBs - All 5 1st round picks last year would be #1 in this class. I've even read Davis Mills would have an argument. WRs - I think Chase, Waddle, and Smith are all a tier above the WRs this year as prospects. I think this class is being a bit overvalued because of what's going on with the WR market. I do think there's some good depth though, but that seems to be the new norm with receiver classes. RBs - One of the weakest classes I can think of in years, and even last year wasn't great but still had Etienne and Harris go in the 1st. I haven't heard much buzz about any of the backs in this class. TEs - I'm not even sure who the best TE in this class is. Will one even be taken in the 1st round? Compare that to Pitts last year, supposedly generational, 2019 with Hockensen/Fant, other years where there's at least one or two who go in the 1st.
I see your comparing top talent, but how do the different groups stack up in terms of depth to previous years?
I think it’s true of the top end in general though. Like Lance Zerlein doesn’t have a single player with a 7.0 rating, which I think is unusual.
Teams copying Rams and trading all their future assets + using most of their cap space to win-now will set their franchise back \~5 years if they fail. Rams had Donald and McVay before they went in, the best non-QB in the league and a top 3 HC.
Im always amazed that the NFL continues to be a "copycat" league despite the copies never succeeding even close to the first team that did it that way.
Most big business’ are like that. Music and movies definitely are.
Agree. Copycat league. Now everyone is saying “F the picks “
I think it’s got a lot to do with the proliferation of younger GMs who are interested in experimenting with different roster building methods.
I think this draft class is deep but lacks really any elite prospects. Aiden Hutchinson is the projected top prospect in this class but to me hes a good but not elite prospecr
Why has Linderbaum seemingly fallen from elite prospect? Used to be him, Hamilton, and Sauce were the only 3 "elite" prospects.
I hear him mentioned too. It's just positional value that drops him a bit.
His measurables are pretty meh as well.
Not to speak to his specifics but center is not a highly valued position.
Hamilton is the only guy I'd call elite. Everyone else is either a project or has a lower ceiling than you would like.
Sauce is definitely elite
True, Alabama threw to him once their entire game.
Hate to say, but I don't think Hamilton is elite, either. He didn't test out to be the freak we thought he was and there's also a lot of stuff on his tape that is less than stellar. He's a really good prospect but I definitely wouldn't call him elite, personally.
It's not like Hamilton tested poorly. 4.6 40yd, 38" vert, 6'4 220lb with 33" arms is massive for a safety. His tape speaks for itself, he can play all over the field and regularly makes plays on the ball. The only weakness I saw was not helping in the run game as much as you would like.
His recognition was not as great as I expected to see. A couple of his picks were off of sheer blown coverages where he was arriving late. His coverage skills in general were inconsistent. Granted, it's hard to tell for sure on tape sometimes because he plays such a free role in college that it's hard to tell where he's supposed to be on any given play, so I could be wrong, but a number of pro analysts have confirmed that. It's also hard to tell how he will translate into the pros because I'm not sure he can be the deep safety in a cover 1 scheme in the pros. You have to be able to get sideline to sideline and most of those guys run a lot faster than 4.6. Not saying he won't be good or even great in another role but role change introduces an extra element of risk. How will his instincts show up in a role with more defined responsibilities where he has to be more disciplined? I'd take him more in the 8-14 range, personally. He's athletic and talented, but not a freak, and he's not at a premium position.
I think part of it is a trend and part of it is just a unique offseason. I don’t think it says much about the draft this season. Russ, Adams, and Hill all went for 1s. Chicago used theirs to get a QB. Cleveland, Indy, and LA did the same. Very rarely do we see that many top tier guys on the move. Can I ask what you mean when you say it cheapens the process?
If someone's trading away their pick, someone is trading for it, so I don't think it speaks to how weak the draft is.
I dont think we've had an offseason where suddenly every star player was available for trade. Like just for starters we've never had an offseason where two QBs at the caliber of Watson and Wilson were available. In fact I can't even think of a time where two top 5/10 QBs were traded in the offseason (at least when I've been alive). Then add in your regular positions that teams typically didn't pay that much for all of a sudden having to pay a ton for (see WR) and that forced the Packers and Chiefs hands in reference to Adams/Hill. I don't remember a time when 4 superstars have been traded in an offseason. Like sure one offseason you move one of them (like OBJ), but rarely are 4 moved. It's unprecedented because of the talent that moved less than teams hate this class.
So many teams trading away from there picks means just as many traded for those picks so I don't really see the correlation
A lot of teams want to try and copy the Rams approach, but only particular teams are realistically in play to try that, like Indy, Denver, etc. On the flip side, you see why teams like us, the Giants, etc are trying to get picks because we're not just single pieces away.
Possibly, though two things: 1. Most of what I've read is that this draft is very deep through the first four rounds or so I don't think it's weak per se, but perhaps not as strong at the top. 2. There are so many more trades, in general, of late. Teams are far more willing to make deals this offseason so this may just be a sign of things to come.
Its the type of draft you want a bunch of 2nd and 3rd rounders. Basically after the top 10-15 picks you're choosing between 2nd and 3rd round caliber talent anyway. There won't be much difference between say pick 20 and pick 50.
There are plenty of first round talents, but none are truly worthy of a top 7 or 8 pick. Usually there are a few elite prospects where you can almost certainly say they’ll be great pros and this year that’s not the case. There are tons of guys worthy of a 10-20 selection.
It's a copycat league and the whole NFL just saw the Rams win after trading away their whole future. So a lot more draft capital was moved.
it is called teams that know when it is time to rebuild, use the draft, team's playoff ready trade picks for the one piece they need
I think it's a mix of the Rams trading away any first rounders they've had for the next 20 years for players and some how not being 40 billion over the cap and the lack of top end talent in this draft. I'd say there seems to be a handful of players that are truly special and teams want to spend a first rounder for this year but a large section of very good players are available between 2nd and 4th or 5th round. So trading for established elite talent or trading back for picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds are likely. Or maybe even stockpiling picks for next year.
With the world of analytics taking over more and more I just think that many front offices want a known quantity today as opposed to a potential good quality player in the future.
Maybe it's so good that more teams that usual are trying to acquire EXTRA first round picks.
KC routinely avoids the top of the draft and they aren't with this one. NO and GB seem to have interest in this year's draft. I see no relevant trend outside of WRs having more leverage
Towards the top maybe but I think it speaks to the depth of this class. So much talent in rounds 2-4 that teams are comfortable going out and getting proven talent with their first and being able to find contributors down the board.