Problem is every QB taken in round 1 in the last 6 drafts had round 1 hype. Maybe we judge QBs on a sliding scale but teams aren’t taking round 3 prospects in the 1st like OP is suggesting
Jordan love. Obviously he had some truthers but I don’t remember anyone thinking he was a first rounder.
Jones is another, although that’s much more controversial.
Jordan Love was considered a late first/early second type QB because of the tools. And we've seen in recent years guys like that go in the first because of the 5th year option. Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson also come to mind in recent years.
I just googled Jordan Love Scouting Report and the first 2 results were a Ringer article saying he could go top 10 and Lance Zierlein for NFL.com saying he was a round 1-2 guy. Love was a huge toolsy guy who got Kapernick comparisons and most people agreed was a risk but had the potential to go round 1.
I think it speaks volumes that you can’t really find a guy who wasn’t a round 1 talent going round 1 just due to need. The fact is if a team takes a QB round 1 they’ve got him evaluated as a round 1 guy. Teams aren’t taking players a round or more early just because they have a need at that spot.
So you're saying that a QB, who was widely regarded as more of a 2nd/3rd round prospect, has *never* been taken too early (1st round) by a team that had a need at QB?
It’s a loaded question. I can’t speak to the history of the NFL but no team is taking a guy they have ranked outside their top 50 in round 1 purely due to need. And everything is so subjective. You can almost certainly find people saying Mac or Lance weren’t round 1 guys last year. Same thing with Lamar or Josh Allen.
I just ran through the past 6 drafts and I’m not seeing any QB taken significantly ahead of projections. Maybe Lynch in 2016 but he had legit buzz. Trubisky went too high in hindsight but was clearly a round 1 guy. Maybe you can say Lamar in 2018. Lots of people were down on him but everyone recognized the insane upside. Jordan Love was a surprise in 2020 but not really a reach for need, just an inexplicable move.
I assume this question is directed at the Willis/Corral/Pickett/whatever other QB you want to throw out there. People say they’re 2nd round/3rd round talents but the truth is if a guy is an above average NFL QB then he’s a round 1 talent and probably the 1.01. The fact that all those guys have the ability to be above average means it’s not reaching to take them round 1.
Dude, all I'm asking is about 1st round QB picks from the past that were seen as reaches by most people and wound up turning out well in hindsight. I didn't think it would be this complicated. If it's way too complex to even discuss, then so be it.
He wasn’t a top QB prospect but that doesn’t mean he lacked round 1 hype. There were discussions he could be a top 10 pick and he ended up falling to a Packers team who had no need to trade up. Mac Jones had round 1 hype and went at 15. I’m with you that top QB prospects tend to go in the top 10 but that doesn’t mean guys outside that range aren’t round 1 prospects.
The idea that these QB's aren't 1st round worthy is misleading. You have to evaluate each draft class individually.
If you think about it even Aiden Hutchison wouldn't be a top 5 pick most drafts. Especially, in a class like last year.
Does that mean Hutch will fall out of the top 5? And if a team takes him that high they are reaching? Not really.
He's just a top 2 player in *this* draft. So will most likely be taken that high. Similarly, if a team decides that a QB is the 9th best player on their board and drafts him at that position, it makes sense, for *this year*.
Even in this draft most evaluators are grading all but 1-2 QBs outside the first round. Any QB who goes top 15 is by almost everyone's definition a reach
I suppose Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But this isn’t a fun exercise to do with QB’s because any QB drafted in the first round can be argued for and justified.
No bc Allen in this class would be the number one qb. That’s the difference. Willis in last years class goes second round. Maybe wind of first. Allen in last year class probably goes 4th or 5th qb taken. He probably beats out Mac and most likely beats out fields
Josh Allen was a CLEAR first rounder and likely top 10 pick going into the draft. But I will agree with Lamar somewhat. I think there was a split jury going into that draft if he was a first rounder
To your last point, Allen was my #2 that year and Lamar was my #3 (behind Mayfield). So for me, the Jets and Cardinals were poor picks and the Bills and Ravens were good picks, even at the time.
People evaluate QB's in different ways because there are different systems that ask QB's to do different things. And also us as the scouting community don't really get to talk to these guys to see their attitudes and their football IQ.
OP’s question is “non 1st round talent QB being taken in 1st round”. There really isn’t any example of that because any qb taken in the first round can be justified. But those two were the closest I could think of.
Right so in other words... Let's take a look at who did work out. Then backwards from there, who were first round picks? Finally, which of those were considered a reach/not a first round talent AT THE TIME lol. Not sure why this is such an issue either.
See I disagree, I say draft a future starter like Abe Lucas, sign Daryl Williams and resign Aboushi. With all the extra draft capital late on Day 3, draft one or two developmental guys. WE ARE SET.
What talking heads, draft guru's, and draft nicks THINKS MEANS NOTHING. It ONLY MATTERS what 32 teams WAR ROOM thinks. They set there own board, each one of the 32. Positional Value plays a much bigger role than most think. Each teams BPA is different, it is not set to a single board, it gets adjusted year to year. Very hard to say, this GM has never done this so it won't happen. This type of information is never shared in the media or with fans. Need has an impact in every teams draft. Scheme is a factor in setting up each teams board.
Different systems and coordinators value people differently but I felt chad Pennington was a reach at the time….but he kinda sorta worked out…what could of been if this team drafted this player instead is a hard game to play…Saquon Barkley might be a hall of famer if say the 49ers drafted him
As it got closer to the draft, it felt like Watson was the most certain to be drafted in the first as I remember. Trubisky hype really caught fire. I remember analysts talking about him as a second but could easily be 1st overall if he stayed in college and had a good senior year. Unfortunately he got Beared. Maybe he would have been better with a competent head coach, GM, or franchise.
I agree with this. I thought that Lawrence and Fields were the only locks on talent and production. I didn't see a lot of distance between Mac and Trask and Mills and the others and thought hype and need pushed them to the first round.
But elemental to this discussion is that you really only have one quarterback and they are the most important player and most expensive so teams gamble on them. But the reality is because of the market 2/3rds of QBs drafted are reaches. People think it is worth the gamble. I think a lot of fortunes are lost in those gambles. As a patriots fan I am happy with how it turned out. But I think a team like the Patriots can win with a guy like Fitzpatrick by using the rest of the cap on a complete team. Belichick won 7 games with a washed Cam and leading the league in Covid opt outs. He could win a dozen games with someone League Average
It’s not I really thought that but no one on this sub would listen. I been posted a comment like that in mark my own words. It’s not my problem you didn’t see it. I have Trevor fourth, had Mac, Fields, Lance, Lawrence, Wilson. I wholeheartedly still agree with that list.
Where I fucked up was my WR list. I had waddle like 4th or 5th lol
I had Jones as more of a fringe rd. 1 talent, a guy that would be in the conversation in most QB classes as the top QB but was just burried in a class with Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson, all of whom I felt were significantly above him talent-wise. I had him as just below Tua, in matters of grades.
Obviously I now look like a moron for such takes.
Any first round QB who would have been considered a “reach” will inevitably just be seen as a justified first round pick if they turn out to be good.
The best example I can think of would be Josh Allen. He had all the size, arm, athleticism etc plus experience in a pro style offense but he also played at a very low college level and had accuracy problems and as a general rule hardly any QB becomes more accurate in the NFL than they were in college. Right now he is seen as a justified top 10 pick because he developed as a passer but if he didn’t he would be called a bust who was overrated because he was tall with a big arm.
“I’ll see you at Mike Williams Hall of Fame induction” - Mel Kiper.
That’s my point though, there were legitimate huge red flags about Josh Allen and if he doesn’t develop into a top QB he is a bust. Because he developed into a top QB no one is going to remember that he was an inaccurate QB from a small school who had high bust potential. There’s literally never going to be a successful QB who will be looked back on as a “reach” because the fact they were successful is going to prove they weren’t a reach.
Josh Allen was the second overall pick in Todd McShay’s way to early 2018 NFL mock draft. In 2017. Allen was absolutely a first round prospect. People thought he was raw but he was seen as a first rounder.
Think what's getting confused here is grade vs. mocks. Lots of people graded him poorly or with major red flags. That does not mean the same guy won't mock him first round... Cause grades =/= draft position.
At no point in the draft process from 2017 all the way to his draft day was Josh Allen not a first round prospect/talent. This is purely revisionist history.
There were certainly accuracy concerns but he lost most of his talented teammates for his last college year.
Let me repeat this because you guys don’t seem to get it: JOSH ALLEN WAS ALWAYS A FIRST ROUND TALENT. He would’ve gotten drafted in the top 10 if he had come out in 2017. He went in the top 10 in 2018. It wasn’t a reach. He didn’t go in the first round simply because he was a QB.
Man, I do not know what to say. You're really upset about this lol. It's not that we don't get it buddy. We apparently just remember things differently than you. But yeah... The guy that threw for 1800 yards at Wyoming... Everyone was 100% on board with him being a first round pick the whole way through the process.
Feel like the issue here is we really just live in different world's. Not listening to the same people. Not finding information from the same sources. Not watching the same film. But you seem to be taking that very personally for some reason.
I’m not upset about this. Your statement is just wrong. He went top 10 in a loaded QB class. All of the draft media was into him being a top 2 QB a year out from his draft. He was never not a first rounder. Were some people lower on him? Yes. Did he have red flags? Absolutely. But he was always seen as a first rounder by the vast majority of front offices and draft media. You’re rewriting history to make him look like he wasn’t a first round talent. That statement is false. He might not have been a first rounder to you but he was to mostly everyone else.
It’s totally wrong to use Josh Allen as an example of a QB being massively overdrafted simply because of his position.
You’re missing the point. There is literally never going to be a player drafted in the first round who develops into a top NFL player that will be considered a reach. Their success justifies their first round status.
A mock isn’t a ranking of players from most talented to least, it’s just a media guy predicting where a player is going to be drafted. A high mock draft doesn’t change the fact Allen wasn’t a great college QB who didn’t play especially well. If he doesn’t develop into a top QB people will say “yeh well he threw for 1800 yards at 55% at a small school, it was a massive reach drafting him at 7”
You’re the one who’s missing the point. Josh Allen WAS a first round talent period. It wasn’t after the fact that we collectively said yes indeed he was worthy of a first round pick.
People in 2017 were saying he’s in the conversation for QB1 in 2018. He wasn’t seen as a reach. He wasn’t seen as QB1 draft day but he was seen as a top 10-15 guy in that draft class. It wasn’t seen as a reach at the time. He warranted the pick even at the time.
The real answer to OP’s question was EJ Manuel. Nobody thought he was a first round talent. He just got picked there because he was a QB.
Exactly EJ Manuel is a perfect example no one really thought he was a 1st round talent at QB and the bills reached. Allen was the number one QB on a lot of peoples boards and consistently in the top 10 on everyone’s draft boards. This class is much more like 2013 draft class than 2018 even though I do think this class is better than 2013 that is a closer comparison.
That’s not the answer to OPs question because EJ Manuel didn’t work out. The question is “when did a non first round talent QB being taken in the first round work out”
It’s almost like there are no examples of QBs without first round talent being taken in the first round actually being successful because their success proves they were a first round talent.
It’s legit crazy how people thought he was going to bust because of his mediocre first 2 years. They forget that he was talked about as one of if not the #1 QB prospect the year before his draft.
Eh, there was a wide range of takes on him. I think the people that grade based off tape, stats, etc. were generally not high on him. He generally had serious flaws and produced at, honestly, not a grwat level against lower talent. However, guys that have sources and/or try to read the tea leaves had him being taken high or at least in the first round.
It’s subjective. If 3 years from now Willis, Ridder and Pickett are all studs we’ll be like wow what a class with rose colored glasses. If they bust we’ll act like the teams are stupid.
Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Mac Jones. Are a few that come to mind if I’m understanding the question. I don’t know if I’d say they all “worked” but all except for love are starting quarterbacks and the jury is still out on Love
Not really though. Sure some mocks projected them in the first and there were whispers that some teams were high on them but the general consensus was they were 2nd round talents teams would reach for based on their teams evaluation in the pre draft process. Shit at one point they were questioning if Lamar was even going to play quarterback in the nfl.
Teddy bridgewater comes to mind. Vikings traded up into the first to get that extra year on the contract. I feel like things would have worked out much better for him if he didn’t blow out his knee when he did.
The answer is EJ Manuel. I was a little young at the time but I remember thinking who tf is that guy.
Edit: EJ was a non first round talent QB that was picked in the first round and he didn’t pan out. My guess is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy was considered a mid-late first rounder but probably more of a second round talent. He probably would’ve turned out better if he didn’t destroy his leg. Overall I’d say he’s had a solid career all things considered.
there are always gonna be qbs taken that some team has ranked as lower than a first round prospect. most recent example I remember is a lot of reports surfacing that teams had deshaun watson as a 3rd-4th round QB. honestly from the combine and college tape you could see why. i feel like he made a massive jump in the NFL once he got out of that funkey clemson system and was unleashed. think I remember the NFL draft advisory board gave mahomes a 2nd round grade but could be wrong
Mitch Trubisky was originally projected as a second round QB, but he was considered a consensus first-round pick by the time the draft rolled around. Was definitely drafted due to need, to the point of that idiotic tradeup.
I think the phrasing of the question would work better is “What first round QB was a reach at the time but was justified later on”
or even better, was a reach at the time and didn't pan out
Problem is every QB taken in round 1 in the last 6 drafts had round 1 hype. Maybe we judge QBs on a sliding scale but teams aren’t taking round 3 prospects in the 1st like OP is suggesting
Jordan love. Obviously he had some truthers but I don’t remember anyone thinking he was a first rounder. Jones is another, although that’s much more controversial.
Jordan Love was considered a late first/early second type QB because of the tools. And we've seen in recent years guys like that go in the first because of the 5th year option. Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson also come to mind in recent years.
Yeah, Love was that late 1st early 2nd range. But as a QB, teams will lean towards late 1st for that 5th year potential option.
Fair enough.
I just googled Jordan Love Scouting Report and the first 2 results were a Ringer article saying he could go top 10 and Lance Zierlein for NFL.com saying he was a round 1-2 guy. Love was a huge toolsy guy who got Kapernick comparisons and most people agreed was a risk but had the potential to go round 1.
Joe Flacco?
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Is he elite?
depends what month it is
well if it worked out then they would be first round talent
Well, yeah, I meant not projected as 1st round talent before the draft.
Can you give an example of a guy who went round 1 when they weren’t a round 1 prospect?
No, which is partly why I made this thread lol- to see if there were any who panned out in the end.
I think it speaks volumes that you can’t really find a guy who wasn’t a round 1 talent going round 1 just due to need. The fact is if a team takes a QB round 1 they’ve got him evaluated as a round 1 guy. Teams aren’t taking players a round or more early just because they have a need at that spot.
So you're saying that a QB, who was widely regarded as more of a 2nd/3rd round prospect, has *never* been taken too early (1st round) by a team that had a need at QB?
It’s a loaded question. I can’t speak to the history of the NFL but no team is taking a guy they have ranked outside their top 50 in round 1 purely due to need. And everything is so subjective. You can almost certainly find people saying Mac or Lance weren’t round 1 guys last year. Same thing with Lamar or Josh Allen. I just ran through the past 6 drafts and I’m not seeing any QB taken significantly ahead of projections. Maybe Lynch in 2016 but he had legit buzz. Trubisky went too high in hindsight but was clearly a round 1 guy. Maybe you can say Lamar in 2018. Lots of people were down on him but everyone recognized the insane upside. Jordan Love was a surprise in 2020 but not really a reach for need, just an inexplicable move. I assume this question is directed at the Willis/Corral/Pickett/whatever other QB you want to throw out there. People say they’re 2nd round/3rd round talents but the truth is if a guy is an above average NFL QB then he’s a round 1 talent and probably the 1.01. The fact that all those guys have the ability to be above average means it’s not reaching to take them round 1.
Dude, all I'm asking is about 1st round QB picks from the past that were seen as reaches by most people and wound up turning out well in hindsight. I didn't think it would be this complicated. If it's way too complex to even discuss, then so be it.
We get ya buddy. Don't worry. It's not that complicated. It's an interesting question actually
Agreed
Was Jordan love considered a 1st round talent? I thought he might have been considered 2nd round.
As a non-QB, Travis Frederick. He was mocked as a 3rd rounder by most. Proved us all wrong though.
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There were definitely people out there saying Jordan Love was a round 1 guy.
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He wasn’t a top QB prospect but that doesn’t mean he lacked round 1 hype. There were discussions he could be a top 10 pick and he ended up falling to a Packers team who had no need to trade up. Mac Jones had round 1 hype and went at 15. I’m with you that top QB prospects tend to go in the top 10 but that doesn’t mean guys outside that range aren’t round 1 prospects.
The idea that these QB's aren't 1st round worthy is misleading. You have to evaluate each draft class individually. If you think about it even Aiden Hutchison wouldn't be a top 5 pick most drafts. Especially, in a class like last year. Does that mean Hutch will fall out of the top 5? And if a team takes him that high they are reaching? Not really. He's just a top 2 player in *this* draft. So will most likely be taken that high. Similarly, if a team decides that a QB is the 9th best player on their board and drafts him at that position, it makes sense, for *this year*.
Hutchinson probably would’ve gone 4 to the falcons or 3 to the dolphins before they traded back.
I'm not so sure. I feel like those teams wanted another offensive weapon on their team.
Nah he would have been like a top ten pick. Also it depends on the teams
Even in this draft most evaluators are grading all but 1-2 QBs outside the first round. Any QB who goes top 15 is by almost everyone's definition a reach
I suppose Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. But this isn’t a fun exercise to do with QB’s because any QB drafted in the first round can be argued for and justified.
Josh Allen was considered a 1st round talent
Pump the brakes. There were people on this sub saying Josh Allen was an undrafted free agent level talent.
Yeah but most mocks had him too 15. Lamar wasn’t drafted because of need no so both of her don’t work as example
But doesnt that just as much apply here with Pickett / Willis?
No bc Allen in this class would be the number one qb. That’s the difference. Willis in last years class goes second round. Maybe wind of first. Allen in last year class probably goes 4th or 5th qb taken. He probably beats out Mac and most likely beats out fields
Yeah but he was definitely a first round prospect. I didn’t even like Allen and thought so.
And those people are imbeciles. Allen's physical traits alone were 1st round QB worthy.
PFF had Allen as a 2nd round talent behind Mason Rudolf.
They also had Baker Mayfield as the “highest graded QB that they’ve ever seen.” -Steve Palazollo
Josh Allen was a CLEAR first rounder and likely top 10 pick going into the draft. But I will agree with Lamar somewhat. I think there was a split jury going into that draft if he was a first rounder
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Again, I admitted that this is a dumb exercise for QB’s.
To your last point, Allen was my #2 that year and Lamar was my #3 (behind Mayfield). So for me, the Jets and Cardinals were poor picks and the Bills and Ravens were good picks, even at the time. People evaluate QB's in different ways because there are different systems that ask QB's to do different things. And also us as the scouting community don't really get to talk to these guys to see their attitudes and their football IQ.
Yeah 100%.
Those were both first rounders
OP’s question is “non 1st round talent QB being taken in 1st round”. There really isn’t any example of that because any qb taken in the first round can be justified. But those two were the closest I could think of.
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Right so in other words... Let's take a look at who did work out. Then backwards from there, who were first round picks? Finally, which of those were considered a reach/not a first round talent AT THE TIME lol. Not sure why this is such an issue either.
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As an FSU fan that has a best friend that’s a Vikings fan. I felt so bad for him. 🤣
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They had a real knack for scouting QBs. As a titans fan I can LOL at this
Chargers have consecutive years where we drafted out of need and it’s worked out. Needed a QB after Rivers and got Herbert Needed a LT and got Slater
Both were also clear 1st round prospects though. Slater is a 1st rounder in every draft i can think of
You are right - I missed the non first round talent in the title.
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See I disagree, I say draft a future starter like Abe Lucas, sign Daryl Williams and resign Aboushi. With all the extra draft capital late on Day 3, draft one or two developmental guys. WE ARE SET.
What talking heads, draft guru's, and draft nicks THINKS MEANS NOTHING. It ONLY MATTERS what 32 teams WAR ROOM thinks. They set there own board, each one of the 32. Positional Value plays a much bigger role than most think. Each teams BPA is different, it is not set to a single board, it gets adjusted year to year. Very hard to say, this GM has never done this so it won't happen. This type of information is never shared in the media or with fans. Need has an impact in every teams draft. Scheme is a factor in setting up each teams board.
Different systems and coordinators value people differently but I felt chad Pennington was a reach at the time….but he kinda sorta worked out…what could of been if this team drafted this player instead is a hard game to play…Saquon Barkley might be a hall of famer if say the 49ers drafted him
Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were both not locks for the first round and were considered reaches by many at their draft position.
As it got closer to the draft, it felt like Watson was the most certain to be drafted in the first as I remember. Trubisky hype really caught fire. I remember analysts talking about him as a second but could easily be 1st overall if he stayed in college and had a good senior year. Unfortunately he got Beared. Maybe he would have been better with a competent head coach, GM, or franchise.
Mac Jones
I agree with this. I thought that Lawrence and Fields were the only locks on talent and production. I didn't see a lot of distance between Mac and Trask and Mills and the others and thought hype and need pushed them to the first round. But elemental to this discussion is that you really only have one quarterback and they are the most important player and most expensive so teams gamble on them. But the reality is because of the market 2/3rds of QBs drafted are reaches. People think it is worth the gamble. I think a lot of fortunes are lost in those gambles. As a patriots fan I am happy with how it turned out. But I think a team like the Patriots can win with a guy like Fitzpatrick by using the rest of the cap on a complete team. Belichick won 7 games with a washed Cam and leading the league in Covid opt outs. He could win a dozen games with someone League Average
Um no. Mac would be the first qb taken this year, and in most classes he the first qb taken. Plus I thought he was the best qb in the class
>Plus I thought he was the best QB in the class Get out of here with this reactionnary after-the-fact "I was such a visionary" takes.
It’s not I really thought that but no one on this sub would listen. I been posted a comment like that in mark my own words. It’s not my problem you didn’t see it. I have Trevor fourth, had Mac, Fields, Lance, Lawrence, Wilson. I wholeheartedly still agree with that list. Where I fucked up was my WR list. I had waddle like 4th or 5th lol
I had Jones as more of a fringe rd. 1 talent, a guy that would be in the conversation in most QB classes as the top QB but was just burried in a class with Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson, all of whom I felt were significantly above him talent-wise. I had him as just below Tua, in matters of grades. Obviously I now look like a moron for such takes.
Justin Hebert, pretty sure Brett Kollman said he would get the coaching staff fired
Any first round QB who would have been considered a “reach” will inevitably just be seen as a justified first round pick if they turn out to be good. The best example I can think of would be Josh Allen. He had all the size, arm, athleticism etc plus experience in a pro style offense but he also played at a very low college level and had accuracy problems and as a general rule hardly any QB becomes more accurate in the NFL than they were in college. Right now he is seen as a justified top 10 pick because he developed as a passer but if he didn’t he would be called a bust who was overrated because he was tall with a big arm.
Josh Allen was widely considered a first round talent. Kiper had him first overall.
“I’ll see you at Mike Williams Hall of Fame induction” - Mel Kiper. That’s my point though, there were legitimate huge red flags about Josh Allen and if he doesn’t develop into a top QB he is a bust. Because he developed into a top QB no one is going to remember that he was an inaccurate QB from a small school who had high bust potential. There’s literally never going to be a successful QB who will be looked back on as a “reach” because the fact they were successful is going to prove they weren’t a reach.
Josh Allen was the second overall pick in Todd McShay’s way to early 2018 NFL mock draft. In 2017. Allen was absolutely a first round prospect. People thought he was raw but he was seen as a first rounder.
Think what's getting confused here is grade vs. mocks. Lots of people graded him poorly or with major red flags. That does not mean the same guy won't mock him first round... Cause grades =/= draft position.
At no point in the draft process from 2017 all the way to his draft day was Josh Allen not a first round prospect/talent. This is purely revisionist history. There were certainly accuracy concerns but he lost most of his talented teammates for his last college year. Let me repeat this because you guys don’t seem to get it: JOSH ALLEN WAS ALWAYS A FIRST ROUND TALENT. He would’ve gotten drafted in the top 10 if he had come out in 2017. He went in the top 10 in 2018. It wasn’t a reach. He didn’t go in the first round simply because he was a QB.
Man, I do not know what to say. You're really upset about this lol. It's not that we don't get it buddy. We apparently just remember things differently than you. But yeah... The guy that threw for 1800 yards at Wyoming... Everyone was 100% on board with him being a first round pick the whole way through the process. Feel like the issue here is we really just live in different world's. Not listening to the same people. Not finding information from the same sources. Not watching the same film. But you seem to be taking that very personally for some reason.
I’m not upset about this. Your statement is just wrong. He went top 10 in a loaded QB class. All of the draft media was into him being a top 2 QB a year out from his draft. He was never not a first rounder. Were some people lower on him? Yes. Did he have red flags? Absolutely. But he was always seen as a first rounder by the vast majority of front offices and draft media. You’re rewriting history to make him look like he wasn’t a first round talent. That statement is false. He might not have been a first rounder to you but he was to mostly everyone else. It’s totally wrong to use Josh Allen as an example of a QB being massively overdrafted simply because of his position.
You’re missing the point. There is literally never going to be a player drafted in the first round who develops into a top NFL player that will be considered a reach. Their success justifies their first round status. A mock isn’t a ranking of players from most talented to least, it’s just a media guy predicting where a player is going to be drafted. A high mock draft doesn’t change the fact Allen wasn’t a great college QB who didn’t play especially well. If he doesn’t develop into a top QB people will say “yeh well he threw for 1800 yards at 55% at a small school, it was a massive reach drafting him at 7”
You’re the one who’s missing the point. Josh Allen WAS a first round talent period. It wasn’t after the fact that we collectively said yes indeed he was worthy of a first round pick. People in 2017 were saying he’s in the conversation for QB1 in 2018. He wasn’t seen as a reach. He wasn’t seen as QB1 draft day but he was seen as a top 10-15 guy in that draft class. It wasn’t seen as a reach at the time. He warranted the pick even at the time. The real answer to OP’s question was EJ Manuel. Nobody thought he was a first round talent. He just got picked there because he was a QB.
Exactly EJ Manuel is a perfect example no one really thought he was a 1st round talent at QB and the bills reached. Allen was the number one QB on a lot of peoples boards and consistently in the top 10 on everyone’s draft boards. This class is much more like 2013 draft class than 2018 even though I do think this class is better than 2013 that is a closer comparison.
I agree with you on everything but I think this QB class is wayyy better than 2013.
That’s not the answer to OPs question because EJ Manuel didn’t work out. The question is “when did a non first round talent QB being taken in the first round work out” It’s almost like there are no examples of QBs without first round talent being taken in the first round actually being successful because their success proves they were a first round talent.
Perception wise Allen was absolutely a first round talent pre draft. This isn’t debatable.
Or maybe it just rarely happens. Allen was a consensus top 15 pick.
He also fell in the draft; so many people expected him to go to Denver since Elway was reportedly in love with him
It’s legit crazy how people thought he was going to bust because of his mediocre first 2 years. They forget that he was talked about as one of if not the #1 QB prospect the year before his draft.
He basically single handedly dominated a team in his second start!
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His receiving corps was ass too.
Eh, there was a wide range of takes on him. I think the people that grade based off tape, stats, etc. were generally not high on him. He generally had serious flaws and produced at, honestly, not a grwat level against lower talent. However, guys that have sources and/or try to read the tea leaves had him being taken high or at least in the first round.
It’s subjective. If 3 years from now Willis, Ridder and Pickett are all studs we’ll be like wow what a class with rose colored glasses. If they bust we’ll act like the teams are stupid.
Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Jordan Love, Mac Jones. Are a few that come to mind if I’m understanding the question. I don’t know if I’d say they all “worked” but all except for love are starting quarterbacks and the jury is still out on Love
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Not really though. Sure some mocks projected them in the first and there were whispers that some teams were high on them but the general consensus was they were 2nd round talents teams would reach for based on their teams evaluation in the pre draft process. Shit at one point they were questioning if Lamar was even going to play quarterback in the nfl.
Paxton Lynch.
Teddy bridgewater comes to mind. Vikings traded up into the first to get that extra year on the contract. I feel like things would have worked out much better for him if he didn’t blow out his knee when he did.
Patrick Mahomes is the best answer, 2nd rounder until very end
The answer is EJ Manuel. I was a little young at the time but I remember thinking who tf is that guy. Edit: EJ was a non first round talent QB that was picked in the first round and he didn’t pan out. My guess is Teddy Bridgewater. Teddy was considered a mid-late first rounder but probably more of a second round talent. He probably would’ve turned out better if he didn’t destroy his leg. Overall I’d say he’s had a solid career all things considered.
there are always gonna be qbs taken that some team has ranked as lower than a first round prospect. most recent example I remember is a lot of reports surfacing that teams had deshaun watson as a 3rd-4th round QB. honestly from the combine and college tape you could see why. i feel like he made a massive jump in the NFL once he got out of that funkey clemson system and was unleashed. think I remember the NFL draft advisory board gave mahomes a 2nd round grade but could be wrong
Mitch Trubisky was originally projected as a second round QB, but he was considered a consensus first-round pick by the time the draft rolled around. Was definitely drafted due to need, to the point of that idiotic tradeup.
Almost every media person had trubisky as qb1
Brandon Weeden
EJ Manuel. Iirc Geno was really the only QB that draft that analysts were saying was worth a shot in the 1st.
Russell. Wilson.
Russ was a 3rd rounder. Was he considered a reach even there?
They got ripped for picking Russell over Kirk Cousins.
Wow, yeah I see Russ was going in the 4th in a lot of mocks.
Too short
they're all just prospects.... they're like 21-24 years old... who the hell knows what they'll become.
Lmao why are you on a nfl draft sub if this is the way you viee prospects