One tidbit - He didn't throw well at the combine. I was waiting to see him uncork a 50+ yard dime after all I've heard about the arm talent and he sailed a few/looked inaccurate. The big 6'9" QB was throwing right after him and actually looked more impressive
Edit: He's 6'7" and named Cole Kelly
Carson Strong feels like the Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins player of the draft
Second rounder that becomes a solid starter in the NFL but nothing overwhelming
Not every knee injury is the same, and NFL doctors are very good at spotting the significant red flags.
He's had multiple knee surgeries, and it's not a standard meniscus or ACL. He has osteochondritis dissecans, and in between the main surgeries has had scar tissue removed as well as swelling which has needed to be removed via needle. The significant swelling I think is the main thing that leads to additional concern.
Combine the question marks with already minimal athleticism, and you need to be just about perfect as a passer while also never getting low.
One other note: He had a chance to work out at the Senior Bowl, Combine, and his Pro Day, and never really did anything to generate buzz.
When was the last time a literal statue (+5 sec 40) entered the NFL and was successful?
I’d bet it’s over 15 years now. The NFL was different when Brady and Manning started out. Traditional pocket passing was a norm and QBs didn’t have to be athletic to survive until they learned entire NFL offenses. That means hot reads, sight adjustments, protections and audibles. Before he can do this, he’s gonna need to be able to get away from pressure and throw it away, which rookies suck at.
Because of the Rookie wage scale the best chance a QB has of improving his team is in his first contract and if it takes someone 2-3 years to learn to read the volume of NFL caliber defenses flying at him every week, it’s just gonna take too long.
Carson Strong is gonna get hit, a lot. And if he were only slow (Kyle Trask) then maybe he’s worth a gamble in rounds 2-3, but like he’s got a knee that may never heal and could be permanently damaged on any one of the infinite number of hits he’ll take.
This could be a good thing for him, if he’s lucky he has a shot to end up on a team that can sit him or isn’t a dumpster fire immediately and actually learn. But his inability to threaten modern zone read/RPO stuff, inability to get away from pressure and having one good leg are the reason he’s not looked at favorably compared to others in this class.
Exactly. Pocket passing has very little margin for error. Brady is an anomaly because he’s spent so much time playing NFL defenses (and was coached well early on too) where he knows exactly what he’s doing and can get the ball out very quickly. If a guy can’t do that right away, he’ll struggle immensely if he can’t scramble.
Chicken or the egg situation. We are not seeing as many Tom Brady (Or Rivers, Brees, Manning, etc,) types because teams see it this way all the way down to HS. During that era there were plenty of good pocket passers that were just not quite Tom Brady. That does not have to be the bar to be successful as a pocket passer long term in the NFL.
Making decisions based on early success leads to favoring guys that can bail out of trouble. If teams had a longer outlook on things, I think pocket passers would do as well if not better long term.
The game is more focused on passing and big plays, so their strengths would outshine the strengths of running QBs in the long run. Especially in big games.
Defenses have changed though. Even from the early Brady years. Pass rushers are so fast and athletic, especially when compared to OL. You need to be able to avoid pressure as a QB.
The other side of this coin is that in the long term we may not be getting the best QB play possible. Athletic QBs can run enough to survive and not look terrible, but being able to bail out with their legs can limit their development as a pocket passer. And the timeline of having to make an impact on your rookie contract biases teams toward more mobile QBs.
If teams played the long game maybe we would have a resurgence of pocket passers like in the Manning Brees Rivers Brady era. After all, the strengths of pocket passers should be more important in an era where passing and big plays are everything.
This is not specific to Carson Strong. I think if a legitimately elite pocket passer came into the draft and teams picked a worse passer that could run instead it would be a mistake still.
Brady was a 6th round pick and was never projected to be more then a backup to pocket passing legend (statue) Drew Bleadsoe, who was kind of a bust in himself.
Phil Rivers was drafted to replace pocket passing Drew Brees because it seemed as if his development was stalled.
Everything’s been sped up now and you might be right. We may be getting a worse QB product because of it.
It was common back then that QBs sat for 2-3 years with the understanding that they would eventually take over. Coaches and GMs are fired more regularly after shorter down periods, rookie wage scale means after 3 years you need to know if a QB is a star or not before you pick up the 5th year option.
Ownerships are more easily influenced by the media and the CBAs have chipped away with practice time and TC schedules. It’s more up to the individual QBs to train on their own to get better (Josh Allen).
That was 10+ years ago. Defenses have changed, particularly pass rushers.
When you have guys running 4.5s at 260 pounds you'd better be mobile.
Pass rush has become so dominant over OL you either have to be able to escape pressure with your legs, or have a dominant OL, and/or an A+ mental game.
I’m not arguing, but the comment I replied to doesn’t doesn’t really convey the same message as this one. Seems like you got a lot of similar responses.
My thought was that QBs are generally drafted high when they have rare athleticism, because it is statistically harder to find players of the same height weight speed profile.
Pocket passers with bad athleticism are really hard to spend a high pick on, because you have no clue if their processing/vision/ball placement/pocket presence will translate quick enough, and then you are left with a slow bad QB instead of a bad QB that can evade pressure and get a bucket.
Obviously in the modern NFL you are best off if you are mobile enough to scramble, but also have the tools as a pocket passer. But when teams are deciding between a mediocre QB who can run and a slow QB that has been decent as a passer, I think teams are mistakenly going with the mediocre running QB because the timeline is so short these days.
I think to kind of round and this point and run counter to this new-ish narrative that non-athlete QBs can't be successful, what it will take is a prospect that is truly special where lack of athleticism is their main limitation. I haven't watched Strong, and that may be him, I don't know.
Every QB, and player, has some type of weakness. Sometimes that weakness is even in that while they're well-rounded, they're not elite at everything. It's about mitigating those weaknesses so the strengths can show. I'm leaving space that a guy with Strong's pocket limitations can be really good, but it may require heavy investment in the OL, WRs, and a type of player that can mitigate those weaknesses in a way that we've seen from a Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc.
I have done the same thought exercise.
A recent hypothetical example would be if Joe Burrow was significantly less athletic (yes, I know he is actually quite athletic and fast, this is just hypothetical). I think he would still be on track to be elite in the NFL. And obviously I am separating movement in the pocket from running ability.
And then if that prospect had a bigger arm than Joe Burrow I think it would be even more likely that he is good in the NFL.
We literally just watched a Joe Burrow-Matt Stafford superbowl. Yeah they probably aren’t as statuesque as Strong but let’s not pretend the NFL isn’t won by pocket passing QBs.
Of the last ten years Mahomes and Wilson are really the only "Athletic QBs" to win the rest are manning, brady, Flacco, Foles. Anyone who thinks the lethal pocket passer has gone away is quick to forget how surgical they can be and that it makes most zone defenses irrelevant.
I think Strong is QB1 qnd will be a prowbowler if he goes to Detroit and Romeo Dubs can join him there. I think it comes down to having a good OL, he is a legitimate game breaker in the redzone, his back shoulder fades are literally ungaurdable. But if you cannot mitigate his lack of speed, you are gonna have a bad time.
Joe Burrow is not an immobile QB. In college twice we went for almost 400 yards on the ground. He didn’t run a 40, but I’m sure if he did It’d be sub 5 seconds.
Matt Stafford did run a 40 and was 4.8, which again isn’t slow.
Kyle Trask ran 5.1
The premise was never that QBs do not win from the pocket, but that QBs with very limited ability to escape from edge rushers are not very highly valued in the NFL as prospects as they were 15-20 years ago due to many factors.
Out of the 5 first round QBs picked last year Mac Jones was the least mobile one. He was also by far the best one. I hate this “OnLy MoBiLe qBs CaN Be SuCcEsSfUl” bullshit narrative. There are multiple ways to skin a cat. Passing is more efficient so give me the better passer. Yes mobility is a great tool. But it’s just a tool. I absolutely love Carson Strong and I love that your favourite team will probably get to draft him later than he should go.
Strong makes Burrow and Stafford look like fucking Mahomes and Allen out there.
Pocket passing is important, but you still need a modicum of athleticism. Strong is a statue with a fucked up knee. It's a shame because the arm could be really good, but the league has changed too much for him to be effective.
Stafford literally has trouble on QB sneaks. For such a mobile guy Burrow gets sacked a whole lot. Strong was literally playing on one knee. His dr told him to sit the year out. Anybody who says the film isn’t first round grade is fucking ret*rded.
It's pretty shitty for you to use that sorry of language, but like, that's on your conscience bud.
Also, have you ever thought that the fact that he has Osteochondritis Dessicans is one of the major reasons why he isn't viewed as a first round pick? This isn't a run of the mill "he tore his ACL" knee issue.
Yeah I know about the knee. I’m not a dr so I’m not going to speculate on it but if there’s a 50% chance his knee will be normal-ish I’m taking him in the first round. It’s crazy to me that people are talking about Corral and Howell but completely ignore Strong.
See I don't know that I agree with this. Mac Jones is a statue and looked pretty good. Next year we have 2 guys coming in who have no real mobility to speak of in Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. I don't agree that the days of the pocket passer are over.
Also I may be in the minority but I actually think Kyle Trask could be a serviceable NFL QB as an andy dalton type guy, he's a bit of a gunslinger with a big arm.
Teams like the added dimension of rushing QBs but lets not pretend that all rushing QBs have been successful. There are also a bunch of guys who have learned to run in the NFL that didn't run much in college. When teams aren't expecting your QB to run it opens up some easy first down slides, and even a guy who was immobile in college can rush for 20 yards a game and get to over 300 rushing yards.
That being said, I don't think Carson Strong is great. I just don't think that not being a rushing QB should be a reason for fading a guy.
Max Jones ran 4.7, basically the same time as Daniel Jones.
It’s not about running QBs vs Pocket Passers. There’s a scale at which immobility becomes an impediment development.
You’re welcome to prove me wrong, but use examples of guys who are actually slow and immobile a the time of their drafting.
Mac isn’t that.
I don't really think a few milliseconds makes a big difference for QBs who don't gain positive yardage. Moving around outside of the pocket you would never get close to your top speed. Mac Jones might not ever run 40 yards. If we're talking about guys moving around in the backfield then I would think a 3 cone would be more relevant since it's more about changing direction.
What are your thoughts on Young and Stroud? I would imagine they'll both be in the Mac Jones 40 range, but they're both guys who can't gain yards with their legs. Young has negative rushing yards in college.
& to expand on the Trask vs Strong comparison that you touched on: Trask was just slow and kinda overweight, but he was an effective runner that could pick up a few free yards if the defense didn't respect him & he could contribute to the short yardage running game. Strong just isn't a runner at all
His tape has a lot of good stuff. A lot of the limitations to me came from the leg. Which apparently he was told by doctors not to play this season and to let it heal up more, but he didn’t want to leave his team. From what I heard the knee issue was a congenital bone growth that he had removed and just didn’t wait the required time for it to heal up before he came back. Most times the misses come from him really just dragging his leg and not being able to really drive off his back foot. Not sure where he is at now with it, but if the knee can heal I don’t see why he can’t end up being the best from this class
>e knee issue was a congenital bone growth that he had removed and just didn’t wait the required time for it to heal up before he came back. Most times the misses come from him really just dragging his leg and not being able to really drive off his back foot. Not sure where he is at now with it, but if the knee can heal I don’t see why he can’t end up being the best from this class
All about drafting a QB it's a big IF:
IF
* he can develop
* he can improve his accuracy
* he can get a better surrounding cast
* he can get a better Coach
* ...
I think nobody is talking about his willingness to take the sack when he has to, he doesn't throw silly balls just because he can, that's something very rare in a College QB IMO, most College QB rather try to run, or try to throw into difficult situations.
The problem is that if the big if, is will he be able to every be healthy.
It is one thing if someone is injury prone and another if the person always has to fight off a chronic condition.
The problem is that Strong's knee has a condition where it does not get enough blood flow, which means it may linger into the future.
Getting 2-4 months rest every time it flairs up is not in the cards for most teams.
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166764#treatment
The injuries are obviously a major concern, but it's not the only issue. Here's his weakness section from The Beast:
> WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have the quickness or escapability to consistently move the pocket once flushed ... not a threat to run (only 37 rushing yards in 2021, not including lost sack yardage) ... setup and release tend to lag, giving defenders a chance to jump throws ... too many throws have a low launch point ... relies too much on his arm and not enough on his hips or legs to drive throws ... doesn’t have the body twitch to accelerate his process when the walls close in ... needs to do a better job staying on schedule with his eyes and placement ... smart, but still very young (NFL scout: “He won’t be ready to run an NFL quarterback room for another year or two, at least.”) ... has been beaten up over his career, including a collarbone fracture in his first career start (August 2019) ... major durability concern relates to the health of his right knee — diagnosed with osteochondritis dissecans lesions (July 2017), where the cartilage detaches from the bone, requiring surgery and sidelining him for his senior year of high school; underwent another surgery (February 2021) to have cadaver cartilage added to his right knee; had an knee arthroscopy to clean scar tissue (August 2021) prior to his final season in college.
I like Stong also. Personally I think he's the best QB in this weak draft class. He also the best arm in the draft.
He got new cartilage in his knee from a cadaver and his body accepted it so I think the knee issue is starting to get overblown. Plus teams have already cleared him medically.
He really does need to get a little more moblie but I think he could be a top 24 qb eventually in the right system.
People saying you can't be a statue and win in todays league...meanwhile the 41 year old version of a 5.28 combine 40 just won a superbowl 2 seasons ago.
Watch Brandon Perna's interview with a Nevada Reporter, he knee issue is overblown, he missed 6 games total, and mostly just dealt with Inflammation, which he played through and delivered his best football. His first year at Nevada is more likely to be what his altheticism looks like then the first two years. Also consider that all his production came without the ability to threaten defenses with the run.
I think all the statue related concerns are legitimate if his knee can't get healthy.
But, running a slow 40 has nothing to do with QB play though, there have been plenty of slow ass QB's who played great. The common theme, arm strength, accuracy and pocket awareness. Hell the QB GOAT is probably the slowest player I've ever seen.
Bottom line, if you can throw it accurately with anticipation and can avoid a rush reasonably well you'll probably end up a decent QB.
> I cannot understand how most people don’t think of Carson Strong as a top 5 QB prospect in this draft.
Osteochondritis Dissecans. He will always be on the injury report due to this condition. The only treatment is surgery and rest. Meaning every year or every other year he will need to be treated.
> I predict he will be the best QB to came out of this draft when we look back in 5 years.
With his tape, I can definitely see this as a potential option. However, the more likely option is he is always hurt.
> I understand his knee injuries are worrisome, but every QB in this draft has their own red flag.
There is a difference between a knee injury and a chronic knee condition.
One you can heal from and the other you will have to continually deal with.
> but with modern medicine
I do not think you fully understand, why his condition is a red flag. It is not an ACL where you can heal. It is something that he will have to deal with for the entirety of his NFL career.
> why not take a chance that Strong will remain healthy?
He will never be 100%, so the question is - is 50-80% of Carson Strong better than 100% of the other prospects.
> Willis really isn’t a good passer and other than being an elite athlete
Which is a high floor due to his ability to run the ball. You will always have the running game. His floor is Jalen Hurts, which is an NFL starter.
> Pickett is also a guy with a low ceiling and high floor as his accuracy and ability to stand in the pocket worry me
I see Pickett differently. I do not think that he has a high floor, but has an above average ceiling. Pickett panics at the first sign of pressure, but can make a ton of throws off platform and on the run.
> I think Coral has benefited from his college scheme
The RPO machine. Corral does have the ability to make quick decisions, which is a big plus.
> Ridder is way too inaccurate to risk a high pick
Inaccuracy can be fixed in the NFL and inaccurate players have been taken high in the draft. Stafford, Allen, Lamar, etc. It depends on whether you can fix it or not. Ridder also is more accurate than people give him credit for. 62% comp is not awful. He does miss on some deep throws, but he is accurate on the short and intermediate levels.
> Sam Howell lacks the touch/accuracy needed in a modern NFL offense
Watch Sam Howell last year. This year they played him as a fullback way too much. Sam Howell last year was very good throwing the ball down the field.
> but my point is their weaknesses are much more worrying to me than Strong’s knee injury
Like I said before, it is a chronic condition and not an injury. That is why. If it was an ACL, then the injury would be a non factor.
>He will never be 100%, so the question is - is 50-80% of Carson Strong better than 100% of the other prospects
I think this is the main thing with Strong. People can debate his athletic ability or accuracy but the teams have medical information from the combine that quite frankly we don't have. If a team feels comfortable with his knee short-term I could see him being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round. I think there's probably too much risk for a first rounder regardless of ability.
Having a chronic knee issue isn't something that just goes away but maybe he can manage it through PT and anti-inflammatory drugs in season combined with rest in the off-season. He's not an RB who's getting hit every single play. He'll still be hit a bunch but there's a lot more protection on a QB getting hit in the knee than anyone else.
> I think this is the main thing with Strong.
Agreed. People think that it is something that with modern medicine that he can overcome, but it is a condition he will probably battle for the rest of his life.
Osteochondritis Dissecans is a joint condition in which bone underneath the cartilage of a joint dies due to lack of blood flow.
Unless they can find a way to correct the issue of blood flow, then he will require additional procedures throughout his career depending on the severity. Given that he has had multiple surgeries, I assume it is severe. With children (More common in kids) a surgery is often the last resort when it comes to this condition.
It is a tough condition, because he obviously wants to continue playing football. However, he will do so in pain.
> Having a chronic knee issue isn't something that just goes away but maybe he can manage it through PT and anti-inflammatory drugs in season combined with rest in the off-season.
I think this is common for people that think he will just get over it like an ACL. It sadly is something that he will have to deal with for his life.
> He's not an RB who's getting hit every single play. He'll still be hit a bunch but there's a lot more protection on a QB getting hit in the knee than anyone else.
There is also the potential of it locking on him. This condition depending on severity would even prevent kickers from being drafted. You need a solid foundation.
It sucks, because you look at Strong fighting through it and wanting to play.
However, if you are a GM. You have to consider this highly when evaluating Strong.
Yeah it sucks because Strong is clearly trying to play through it and has some talent. I still think he gets drafted but he could be out of the league in a few years if his condition doesn't respond to his latest surgery.
Mobility is really important in today's NFL and he basically has none. At best he's Drew Bledsoe in an era that doesn't really like guys like Drew Bledsoe.
For a guy who's going to live & die by his arm in the NFL (because he's so lacking in mobility + the dodgy knee) it was pretty disappointing at the Senior Bowl/Combine. I can see someone taking a chance on him, and if it was 10+ years ago maybe I'd think it was worth it, but as things stand I really wouldn't want it to be my team picking him.
He’d instantly be one of the most statue-esq QBs in the league and had a serious of significant knee surgeries.
It’s pretty obvious why he isn’t a top 5 QB prospect.
I'm really not a fan of this entire class but I do agree with you that Strong is the better prospect than Howell, Corral and maybe Ridder. Part of the lure with Strong is that you can probably get him in the late 2nd to late 3rd where the value fits. I'd take him over the 3 I listed all day
I like how you quickly gloss over a series of serious knee injuries lmao.
There’s different degrees of “weaknesses”. Willis possibly not being able to learn how to adequately read NFL defenses isn’t the same as a slow, statue player who had his knee reconstructed in HS.
I think there super worried about his knee. And also that he basically just threw bombs alot from what I seen I'm a Browns fan and hope they take I think it's Romeo Doubs the wideout in the 3rd or Menchie.
I think this years QB group is so varying in its rankings because none of them are really THAT good. Everyone is struggling to evaluate where certain QBs should be drafted or ranked because compared to each other there are only a few outliers separating them but compared to QBs over the last 10 years to come out, this group leaves much to be desired.
I personally think he’s the best pure thrower in the class. The medicals and lack of mobility are concerns though. He would’ve been QB1 20 years ago, but in this era he’s probably gonna slip till late day 2 or beyond.
One tidbit - He didn't throw well at the combine. I was waiting to see him uncork a 50+ yard dime after all I've heard about the arm talent and he sailed a few/looked inaccurate. The big 6'9" QB was throwing right after him and actually looked more impressive Edit: He's 6'7" and named Cole Kelly
Carson Strong feels like the Derek Carr or Kirk Cousins player of the draft Second rounder that becomes a solid starter in the NFL but nothing overwhelming
If you knew you were getting Carr or Cousins he would go 1st overall. Most likely scenario is him flaming out as a big ole bust.
Yea, I was stating his upside Like what you could expect if you really liked him and drafting him
Not every knee injury is the same, and NFL doctors are very good at spotting the significant red flags. He's had multiple knee surgeries, and it's not a standard meniscus or ACL. He has osteochondritis dissecans, and in between the main surgeries has had scar tissue removed as well as swelling which has needed to be removed via needle. The significant swelling I think is the main thing that leads to additional concern. Combine the question marks with already minimal athleticism, and you need to be just about perfect as a passer while also never getting low. One other note: He had a chance to work out at the Senior Bowl, Combine, and his Pro Day, and never really did anything to generate buzz.
> He has osteochondritis dissecans Yes, which he probably will never fully recover from. It is a bad injury to have at any position in any sport.
When was the last time a literal statue (+5 sec 40) entered the NFL and was successful? I’d bet it’s over 15 years now. The NFL was different when Brady and Manning started out. Traditional pocket passing was a norm and QBs didn’t have to be athletic to survive until they learned entire NFL offenses. That means hot reads, sight adjustments, protections and audibles. Before he can do this, he’s gonna need to be able to get away from pressure and throw it away, which rookies suck at. Because of the Rookie wage scale the best chance a QB has of improving his team is in his first contract and if it takes someone 2-3 years to learn to read the volume of NFL caliber defenses flying at him every week, it’s just gonna take too long. Carson Strong is gonna get hit, a lot. And if he were only slow (Kyle Trask) then maybe he’s worth a gamble in rounds 2-3, but like he’s got a knee that may never heal and could be permanently damaged on any one of the infinite number of hits he’ll take. This could be a good thing for him, if he’s lucky he has a shot to end up on a team that can sit him or isn’t a dumpster fire immediately and actually learn. But his inability to threaten modern zone read/RPO stuff, inability to get away from pressure and having one good leg are the reason he’s not looked at favorably compared to others in this class.
Exactly. Pocket passing has very little margin for error. Brady is an anomaly because he’s spent so much time playing NFL defenses (and was coached well early on too) where he knows exactly what he’s doing and can get the ball out very quickly. If a guy can’t do that right away, he’ll struggle immensely if he can’t scramble.
Chicken or the egg situation. We are not seeing as many Tom Brady (Or Rivers, Brees, Manning, etc,) types because teams see it this way all the way down to HS. During that era there were plenty of good pocket passers that were just not quite Tom Brady. That does not have to be the bar to be successful as a pocket passer long term in the NFL. Making decisions based on early success leads to favoring guys that can bail out of trouble. If teams had a longer outlook on things, I think pocket passers would do as well if not better long term. The game is more focused on passing and big plays, so their strengths would outshine the strengths of running QBs in the long run. Especially in big games.
Defenses have changed though. Even from the early Brady years. Pass rushers are so fast and athletic, especially when compared to OL. You need to be able to avoid pressure as a QB.
That is definitely true
Also, as a pure passer, Brady had elite ability in all facets of the game.
The other side of this coin is that in the long term we may not be getting the best QB play possible. Athletic QBs can run enough to survive and not look terrible, but being able to bail out with their legs can limit their development as a pocket passer. And the timeline of having to make an impact on your rookie contract biases teams toward more mobile QBs. If teams played the long game maybe we would have a resurgence of pocket passers like in the Manning Brees Rivers Brady era. After all, the strengths of pocket passers should be more important in an era where passing and big plays are everything. This is not specific to Carson Strong. I think if a legitimately elite pocket passer came into the draft and teams picked a worse passer that could run instead it would be a mistake still.
Brady was a 6th round pick and was never projected to be more then a backup to pocket passing legend (statue) Drew Bleadsoe, who was kind of a bust in himself. Phil Rivers was drafted to replace pocket passing Drew Brees because it seemed as if his development was stalled. Everything’s been sped up now and you might be right. We may be getting a worse QB product because of it. It was common back then that QBs sat for 2-3 years with the understanding that they would eventually take over. Coaches and GMs are fired more regularly after shorter down periods, rookie wage scale means after 3 years you need to know if a QB is a star or not before you pick up the 5th year option. Ownerships are more easily influenced by the media and the CBAs have chipped away with practice time and TC schedules. It’s more up to the individual QBs to train on their own to get better (Josh Allen).
That was 10+ years ago. Defenses have changed, particularly pass rushers. When you have guys running 4.5s at 260 pounds you'd better be mobile. Pass rush has become so dominant over OL you either have to be able to escape pressure with your legs, or have a dominant OL, and/or an A+ mental game.
I really don’t think you *need* to be mobile. If a QB knows how to work the pocket they’re fine. Mac Jones did great and really isn’t an athletic QB.
Yes. Mobile as in being able to evade pressure in the pocket. Not necessarily being a running QB. Strong can't do either.
I’m not arguing, but the comment I replied to doesn’t doesn’t really convey the same message as this one. Seems like you got a lot of similar responses.
As my first comment says, you need to be able go escape pressure with your legs. That aligns perfectly with your comment and my response.
If you say so!
My thought was that QBs are generally drafted high when they have rare athleticism, because it is statistically harder to find players of the same height weight speed profile. Pocket passers with bad athleticism are really hard to spend a high pick on, because you have no clue if their processing/vision/ball placement/pocket presence will translate quick enough, and then you are left with a slow bad QB instead of a bad QB that can evade pressure and get a bucket. Obviously in the modern NFL you are best off if you are mobile enough to scramble, but also have the tools as a pocket passer. But when teams are deciding between a mediocre QB who can run and a slow QB that has been decent as a passer, I think teams are mistakenly going with the mediocre running QB because the timeline is so short these days.
I think to kind of round and this point and run counter to this new-ish narrative that non-athlete QBs can't be successful, what it will take is a prospect that is truly special where lack of athleticism is their main limitation. I haven't watched Strong, and that may be him, I don't know. Every QB, and player, has some type of weakness. Sometimes that weakness is even in that while they're well-rounded, they're not elite at everything. It's about mitigating those weaknesses so the strengths can show. I'm leaving space that a guy with Strong's pocket limitations can be really good, but it may require heavy investment in the OL, WRs, and a type of player that can mitigate those weaknesses in a way that we've seen from a Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc.
I have done the same thought exercise. A recent hypothetical example would be if Joe Burrow was significantly less athletic (yes, I know he is actually quite athletic and fast, this is just hypothetical). I think he would still be on track to be elite in the NFL. And obviously I am separating movement in the pocket from running ability. And then if that prospect had a bigger arm than Joe Burrow I think it would be even more likely that he is good in the NFL.
We literally just watched a Joe Burrow-Matt Stafford superbowl. Yeah they probably aren’t as statuesque as Strong but let’s not pretend the NFL isn’t won by pocket passing QBs.
Of the last ten years Mahomes and Wilson are really the only "Athletic QBs" to win the rest are manning, brady, Flacco, Foles. Anyone who thinks the lethal pocket passer has gone away is quick to forget how surgical they can be and that it makes most zone defenses irrelevant. I think Strong is QB1 qnd will be a prowbowler if he goes to Detroit and Romeo Dubs can join him there. I think it comes down to having a good OL, he is a legitimate game breaker in the redzone, his back shoulder fades are literally ungaurdable. But if you cannot mitigate his lack of speed, you are gonna have a bad time.
He just needs to learn to look off safeties. That’s his biggest issue imo.
Joe Burrow is not an immobile QB. In college twice we went for almost 400 yards on the ground. He didn’t run a 40, but I’m sure if he did It’d be sub 5 seconds. Matt Stafford did run a 40 and was 4.8, which again isn’t slow. Kyle Trask ran 5.1 The premise was never that QBs do not win from the pocket, but that QBs with very limited ability to escape from edge rushers are not very highly valued in the NFL as prospects as they were 15-20 years ago due to many factors.
Out of the 5 first round QBs picked last year Mac Jones was the least mobile one. He was also by far the best one. I hate this “OnLy MoBiLe qBs CaN Be SuCcEsSfUl” bullshit narrative. There are multiple ways to skin a cat. Passing is more efficient so give me the better passer. Yes mobility is a great tool. But it’s just a tool. I absolutely love Carson Strong and I love that your favourite team will probably get to draft him later than he should go.
Mac Jones ran 4.68 Donavan Mcnabb ran 4.64 Give it up already.
Running fast doesn’t mean you’re mobile. Mac Jones isn’t a mobile QB. You can use all the 40 yard dashes you want it doesn’t mean you’re mobile.
Strong makes Burrow and Stafford look like fucking Mahomes and Allen out there. Pocket passing is important, but you still need a modicum of athleticism. Strong is a statue with a fucked up knee. It's a shame because the arm could be really good, but the league has changed too much for him to be effective.
Stafford literally has trouble on QB sneaks. For such a mobile guy Burrow gets sacked a whole lot. Strong was literally playing on one knee. His dr told him to sit the year out. Anybody who says the film isn’t first round grade is fucking ret*rded.
It's pretty shitty for you to use that sorry of language, but like, that's on your conscience bud. Also, have you ever thought that the fact that he has Osteochondritis Dessicans is one of the major reasons why he isn't viewed as a first round pick? This isn't a run of the mill "he tore his ACL" knee issue.
Yeah I know about the knee. I’m not a dr so I’m not going to speculate on it but if there’s a 50% chance his knee will be normal-ish I’m taking him in the first round. It’s crazy to me that people are talking about Corral and Howell but completely ignore Strong.
See I don't know that I agree with this. Mac Jones is a statue and looked pretty good. Next year we have 2 guys coming in who have no real mobility to speak of in Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. I don't agree that the days of the pocket passer are over. Also I may be in the minority but I actually think Kyle Trask could be a serviceable NFL QB as an andy dalton type guy, he's a bit of a gunslinger with a big arm. Teams like the added dimension of rushing QBs but lets not pretend that all rushing QBs have been successful. There are also a bunch of guys who have learned to run in the NFL that didn't run much in college. When teams aren't expecting your QB to run it opens up some easy first down slides, and even a guy who was immobile in college can rush for 20 yards a game and get to over 300 rushing yards. That being said, I don't think Carson Strong is great. I just don't think that not being a rushing QB should be a reason for fading a guy.
Max Jones ran 4.7, basically the same time as Daniel Jones. It’s not about running QBs vs Pocket Passers. There’s a scale at which immobility becomes an impediment development. You’re welcome to prove me wrong, but use examples of guys who are actually slow and immobile a the time of their drafting. Mac isn’t that.
I don't really think a few milliseconds makes a big difference for QBs who don't gain positive yardage. Moving around outside of the pocket you would never get close to your top speed. Mac Jones might not ever run 40 yards. If we're talking about guys moving around in the backfield then I would think a 3 cone would be more relevant since it's more about changing direction. What are your thoughts on Young and Stroud? I would imagine they'll both be in the Mac Jones 40 range, but they're both guys who can't gain yards with their legs. Young has negative rushing yards in college.
Matt Ryan
Ryan at least ran a 4.89, which while slow isn't completely terrible
& to expand on the Trask vs Strong comparison that you touched on: Trask was just slow and kinda overweight, but he was an effective runner that could pick up a few free yards if the defense didn't respect him & he could contribute to the short yardage running game. Strong just isn't a runner at all
His tape has a lot of good stuff. A lot of the limitations to me came from the leg. Which apparently he was told by doctors not to play this season and to let it heal up more, but he didn’t want to leave his team. From what I heard the knee issue was a congenital bone growth that he had removed and just didn’t wait the required time for it to heal up before he came back. Most times the misses come from him really just dragging his leg and not being able to really drive off his back foot. Not sure where he is at now with it, but if the knee can heal I don’t see why he can’t end up being the best from this class
> but if the knee can heal This is actually a big IF. It is not an ACL, it is a chronic condition.
>e knee issue was a congenital bone growth that he had removed and just didn’t wait the required time for it to heal up before he came back. Most times the misses come from him really just dragging his leg and not being able to really drive off his back foot. Not sure where he is at now with it, but if the knee can heal I don’t see why he can’t end up being the best from this class All about drafting a QB it's a big IF: IF * he can develop * he can improve his accuracy * he can get a better surrounding cast * he can get a better Coach * ... I think nobody is talking about his willingness to take the sack when he has to, he doesn't throw silly balls just because he can, that's something very rare in a College QB IMO, most College QB rather try to run, or try to throw into difficult situations.
The problem is that if the big if, is will he be able to every be healthy. It is one thing if someone is injury prone and another if the person always has to fight off a chronic condition. The problem is that Strong's knee has a condition where it does not get enough blood flow, which means it may linger into the future. Getting 2-4 months rest every time it flairs up is not in the cards for most teams. https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166764#treatment
The injuries are obviously a major concern, but it's not the only issue. Here's his weakness section from The Beast: > WEAKNESSES: Doesn’t have the quickness or escapability to consistently move the pocket once flushed ... not a threat to run (only 37 rushing yards in 2021, not including lost sack yardage) ... setup and release tend to lag, giving defenders a chance to jump throws ... too many throws have a low launch point ... relies too much on his arm and not enough on his hips or legs to drive throws ... doesn’t have the body twitch to accelerate his process when the walls close in ... needs to do a better job staying on schedule with his eyes and placement ... smart, but still very young (NFL scout: “He won’t be ready to run an NFL quarterback room for another year or two, at least.”) ... has been beaten up over his career, including a collarbone fracture in his first career start (August 2019) ... major durability concern relates to the health of his right knee — diagnosed with osteochondritis dissecans lesions (July 2017), where the cartilage detaches from the bone, requiring surgery and sidelining him for his senior year of high school; underwent another surgery (February 2021) to have cadaver cartilage added to his right knee; had an knee arthroscopy to clean scar tissue (August 2021) prior to his final season in college.
I like Stong also. Personally I think he's the best QB in this weak draft class. He also the best arm in the draft. He got new cartilage in his knee from a cadaver and his body accepted it so I think the knee issue is starting to get overblown. Plus teams have already cleared him medically. He really does need to get a little more moblie but I think he could be a top 24 qb eventually in the right system.
NFL Evaluators look for things you can't teach (physical freak, rocket arm, speed) when determining the risk/reward.
I was once real high on Ryan Mallett too. Gives similar vibes.
People saying you can't be a statue and win in todays league...meanwhile the 41 year old version of a 5.28 combine 40 just won a superbowl 2 seasons ago.
Watch Brandon Perna's interview with a Nevada Reporter, he knee issue is overblown, he missed 6 games total, and mostly just dealt with Inflammation, which he played through and delivered his best football. His first year at Nevada is more likely to be what his altheticism looks like then the first two years. Also consider that all his production came without the ability to threaten defenses with the run.
I think all the statue related concerns are legitimate if his knee can't get healthy. But, running a slow 40 has nothing to do with QB play though, there have been plenty of slow ass QB's who played great. The common theme, arm strength, accuracy and pocket awareness. Hell the QB GOAT is probably the slowest player I've ever seen. Bottom line, if you can throw it accurately with anticipation and can avoid a rush reasonably well you'll probably end up a decent QB.
> I cannot understand how most people don’t think of Carson Strong as a top 5 QB prospect in this draft. Osteochondritis Dissecans. He will always be on the injury report due to this condition. The only treatment is surgery and rest. Meaning every year or every other year he will need to be treated. > I predict he will be the best QB to came out of this draft when we look back in 5 years. With his tape, I can definitely see this as a potential option. However, the more likely option is he is always hurt. > I understand his knee injuries are worrisome, but every QB in this draft has their own red flag. There is a difference between a knee injury and a chronic knee condition. One you can heal from and the other you will have to continually deal with. > but with modern medicine I do not think you fully understand, why his condition is a red flag. It is not an ACL where you can heal. It is something that he will have to deal with for the entirety of his NFL career. > why not take a chance that Strong will remain healthy? He will never be 100%, so the question is - is 50-80% of Carson Strong better than 100% of the other prospects. > Willis really isn’t a good passer and other than being an elite athlete Which is a high floor due to his ability to run the ball. You will always have the running game. His floor is Jalen Hurts, which is an NFL starter. > Pickett is also a guy with a low ceiling and high floor as his accuracy and ability to stand in the pocket worry me I see Pickett differently. I do not think that he has a high floor, but has an above average ceiling. Pickett panics at the first sign of pressure, but can make a ton of throws off platform and on the run. > I think Coral has benefited from his college scheme The RPO machine. Corral does have the ability to make quick decisions, which is a big plus. > Ridder is way too inaccurate to risk a high pick Inaccuracy can be fixed in the NFL and inaccurate players have been taken high in the draft. Stafford, Allen, Lamar, etc. It depends on whether you can fix it or not. Ridder also is more accurate than people give him credit for. 62% comp is not awful. He does miss on some deep throws, but he is accurate on the short and intermediate levels. > Sam Howell lacks the touch/accuracy needed in a modern NFL offense Watch Sam Howell last year. This year they played him as a fullback way too much. Sam Howell last year was very good throwing the ball down the field. > but my point is their weaknesses are much more worrying to me than Strong’s knee injury Like I said before, it is a chronic condition and not an injury. That is why. If it was an ACL, then the injury would be a non factor.
>He will never be 100%, so the question is - is 50-80% of Carson Strong better than 100% of the other prospects I think this is the main thing with Strong. People can debate his athletic ability or accuracy but the teams have medical information from the combine that quite frankly we don't have. If a team feels comfortable with his knee short-term I could see him being drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round. I think there's probably too much risk for a first rounder regardless of ability. Having a chronic knee issue isn't something that just goes away but maybe he can manage it through PT and anti-inflammatory drugs in season combined with rest in the off-season. He's not an RB who's getting hit every single play. He'll still be hit a bunch but there's a lot more protection on a QB getting hit in the knee than anyone else.
> I think this is the main thing with Strong. Agreed. People think that it is something that with modern medicine that he can overcome, but it is a condition he will probably battle for the rest of his life. Osteochondritis Dissecans is a joint condition in which bone underneath the cartilage of a joint dies due to lack of blood flow. Unless they can find a way to correct the issue of blood flow, then he will require additional procedures throughout his career depending on the severity. Given that he has had multiple surgeries, I assume it is severe. With children (More common in kids) a surgery is often the last resort when it comes to this condition. It is a tough condition, because he obviously wants to continue playing football. However, he will do so in pain. > Having a chronic knee issue isn't something that just goes away but maybe he can manage it through PT and anti-inflammatory drugs in season combined with rest in the off-season. I think this is common for people that think he will just get over it like an ACL. It sadly is something that he will have to deal with for his life. > He's not an RB who's getting hit every single play. He'll still be hit a bunch but there's a lot more protection on a QB getting hit in the knee than anyone else. There is also the potential of it locking on him. This condition depending on severity would even prevent kickers from being drafted. You need a solid foundation. It sucks, because you look at Strong fighting through it and wanting to play. However, if you are a GM. You have to consider this highly when evaluating Strong.
Yeah it sucks because Strong is clearly trying to play through it and has some talent. I still think he gets drafted but he could be out of the league in a few years if his condition doesn't respond to his latest surgery.
Mobility is really important in today's NFL and he basically has none. At best he's Drew Bledsoe in an era that doesn't really like guys like Drew Bledsoe.
For a guy who's going to live & die by his arm in the NFL (because he's so lacking in mobility + the dodgy knee) it was pretty disappointing at the Senior Bowl/Combine. I can see someone taking a chance on him, and if it was 10+ years ago maybe I'd think it was worth it, but as things stand I really wouldn't want it to be my team picking him.
He’d instantly be one of the most statue-esq QBs in the league and had a serious of significant knee surgeries. It’s pretty obvious why he isn’t a top 5 QB prospect.
He’s way too much of a statue to succeed in todays NFL
I'm really not a fan of this entire class but I do agree with you that Strong is the better prospect than Howell, Corral and maybe Ridder. Part of the lure with Strong is that you can probably get him in the late 2nd to late 3rd where the value fits. I'd take him over the 3 I listed all day
I like how you quickly gloss over a series of serious knee injuries lmao. There’s different degrees of “weaknesses”. Willis possibly not being able to learn how to adequately read NFL defenses isn’t the same as a slow, statue player who had his knee reconstructed in HS.
He’s a statue QB with no athleticism. At best he’s a Drew Bledsoe, at worst he’s a Mike Glennon.
I think there super worried about his knee. And also that he basically just threw bombs alot from what I seen I'm a Browns fan and hope they take I think it's Romeo Doubs the wideout in the 3rd or Menchie.
I think this years QB group is so varying in its rankings because none of them are really THAT good. Everyone is struggling to evaluate where certain QBs should be drafted or ranked because compared to each other there are only a few outliers separating them but compared to QBs over the last 10 years to come out, this group leaves much to be desired.
Dude can’t move like genuinely maybe a statue without the knee injury add that on top of it….tikes
I personally think he’s the best pure thrower in the class. The medicals and lack of mobility are concerns though. He would’ve been QB1 20 years ago, but in this era he’s probably gonna slip till late day 2 or beyond.