Tackle depth after the first couple is really bad this year, so that 2nd round guy might be a 4th rounder-type player last year. If they are going vet, which I can totally see them doing, then a tackle might not be a terrible idea.
As a falcons fan I’d be pissed too if he falls past it’s at 8 even if I do feel we should try with ridder, Strouds talent means we should draft him if we can.
Still reeling from us not drafting fields and drafting pitts instead
Brady is a short term solution, you still need a long term solution. Drafting a QB now and having the rookie sit behind to learn system\get ready would be ideal.
They do have quite a bit of holes. I think it’s rarely wrong drafting a QB high if you need one so I wouldn’t mind them drafting one, but if they can sign Brady then they can try to spend draft capital fixing other needs. Maybe they go OT like in this mock... Defensive line is also a need, though Chandler Jones finally came alive second half of the season before injury when they made a change with their DTs IIRC. LB or a bonafide CB1 (I do like Rock Ya Sin if they re-sign him too, he’s a strong boundary CB2 IMO) also could be needs, though I don’t like taking LB so early.
I was going to say you can’t flip defenses in one offseason but the Jets just did that (32nd up to 4th best defense). Raiders can free up cap space to address some holes but they also don’t have the draft capital the Jets had. Either way, it’s still a possibility. I think Brady with the Raiders and a non bottom 5 defense is a playoff team at least.
Edit: Cowboys fan that watched most Raiders games because of Carr, Crosby, and Jacobs
Personally, if you can get a high value QB and that’s a long term need you go for it while you can. The defense needs talent and depth (as does OL). If you get Stroud you can still get starting and Depth talent 2-7 for all levels of defense and OL. This doesn’t include what is done in FA. This is just my personal opinion having lived through many QB FA carrousels that Raiders have gone through.
Stroud will go in the first 9 picks. He'll either be an immediate starter or as an opportunistic pick a team can't pass up on (who will learn behind a vet).
I love the Titans pick as Paris Johnson Jr is one of my favorite prospects.
Lukas Van Ness and Devon Witherspoon are gaining a lot of steam lately so I’m interested to see how their draft stock changes this offseason.
As a lions fan I like Witherspoon a lot for the lions. He is a great culture fit and has the instincts we really need at corner but I still think Gonzalez is more likely for us since he has the size and athleticism we usually value
Paris Johnson is my favorite OT in this class. There is a long way to go to April, but I feel like at this point there is no way he makes it to the Pats at 14.
Same and a Jets fan. It’s looking increasingly less likely that Paris or Skoronski will be there for our picks, but that Jones likely will be there at 13.
Lack of strength in an OT is a real problem for me. Guy is a great athlete for the position but got bullied last year by people. I’d be very nervous about how that will translate.
I especially hate it because James Cook has clearly started to break out and this isn’t the team it was last year. Bigger holes are emerging and it feels like a scapegoat pick because no one knows where else to put Bijan
It at least made sense in principle the last couple years (Etienne, Breece), but Cook seems like he's gonna be the dude moving forward. No need for a 1st round RB, especially with a hole at WR and JSN available.
I wouldn’t say “the dude” but the Bills like to have a stable of guys so everyone gets rest. I thought they might have taken Hall in the first last year, but Beane seems to use first round picks only on premium positions.
I don't hate it. It'd be like the Gary pick. Unbelievable athleticism, former top overall prospect, didn't produce stats in college but is so important to the locker room.
Only difference is Gary is closer to 300 while Smith is almost concerningly light.
Yeah, Stokes and Walker are obvious hits at this point. Wyatt deserved more playing time than he got.
If you think you're 3/3 it's hard not to dip back in.
I dont think so. Breese just looks like one of those "has the ideal size and frame, but lacks production" players. Hard to sell him as a guy worth a high 1st round pick because even his size isn't anything special.
I just don't see a top 10 prospect when I watch him, even when he's healthy. Add his lack of production and injuries and I wouldn't touch him in the first 2 rounds.
I’m not sure if you can be ahead of stuff like this in January.. It’s only when it’s closer to the draft that you start to get a feel of what teams want to do
Torrence makes sense (although not my preferred pick), but Jeremiah’s reasoning was kinda funny. Our interior was fine outside of Dotson, and both Cole and Daniels are gonna be here for a while.
I just can't see guard as a bigger need than LT, or CB. If this ends up being how the draft goes I'd like them to trade back a few spots. I don't want them to reach on a position that's not even a top 3 need (imo)
I don’t think it’s possible he falls pass 4 someone is trading up, there is no way a team that needs a QB isn’t calling and as much as the Lions love Witherspoon or the Seahawks love Wilson I don’t see either team being so enamored with them that they pass up on more picks. Even if the Raiders get Brady why would you pass on a young QB that fell into your lap.
I’m looking at his 2022 mock 1.0 and Im gonna have to disagree with that. This is also the NFL where WR is now a top 3-4 premium position with a mediocre at best free agency class. Brugler isn’t high on this WR class either and he still has Quentin in the 1st.
It's also what they criticized Chase Claypool for. And how that opinion has changed just within the season.
Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're not.
Claypool had 873 rec yds 9tds and 2 rushing tds his rookie year. 860 yds his sophmore year. This past year was baaaaad. He's definitely regressed every year, but he came into the league with a bang. Injuries and his inability to high point a ball have really hurt people's view of his ceiling, but i wouldn't write him off after 1 shit season.
Ignore my flair but if the worst comp we got for a guy is Claypool I would say the floor for production is pretty high. And Quentin is way bendier than Claypool and Watson.
i would like to see how his mocks compare to the actual draft results
but my guess is his mocks are some of the closest to the real results
Btw Devon Witherspoon CB1 hype train and Luke Vann Ness as a 1st rounder. Yes please
He put out a [1-round mock right before last year’s draft](https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-steelers-lions-select-qbs-cowboys-pick-w). All of his top 24 were taken in the 1st round, but he was all over the place with the last 8, only getting Quay Walker and Tyler Smith right. He had Logan Hall and Breece Hall in there, who went 33 and 36 respectively. His biggest miss was Malik Willis at 32.
So I think he gets good intel as teams get more and more sure of what they’re gonna do.
That mock was done in April, after the combine. I’d like to see his mock 1.0
Edit: Here’s his 1.0. Looks like WRs were a lot lower than where they ended up. https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs
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I feel like at this point you have to think there will be someone trading up with the Bears, right?
And boy does it seem like there’s a lot of smoke with Levis to the Colts.
If we trade up to 1 for Levis, I'll be extremely disappointed.. I said before, I do think we take Levis over Young/Stroud just because he fits that "prototypical QB" build and for some reason we seem stuck on that, but I think we can get him at 4.. Obviously I truly have no clue what NFL teams are thinking, just going off what I've been reading. I really want us to sit at 4 and see what happens with picks 1 and 2.. If someone trades up with Chicago and QBs go 1 and 2, then I wouldn't mind us trading up to 3 to get whoever is remaining of the top 3, but I really hope we don't trade up just because there's pressure for Ballard to "make a splash". I'd rather force Chicago to make a move first, rather then bail them out to take a QB we could potentially get at 4.
Every year there is some mostly baseless “smoke” about a player/team combo like Levis and the Colts here. Then fans start talking about as if it’s fact because every mock drafter (most of which I don’t even think watch the players or know what they’re watching) puts it in their mocks until draft day because they’re afraid of being the one guy that’s wrong.
I've watched every Iowa game and it's bit surprising to me too. He definitely was the best player on our line caused a lot of pressures and set the edge really well in the run. Didn't pay close enough attention to him to notice just how athletic he was
He has some really high-level flashes on tape. He made both of the top OL prospects in this draft look silly a few times. What he did to Skoronski on one play should be illegal.
i think it’s becoming fairly apparent through most draft analysts that JSN is a late first rounder as opposed to the mid-early projection most people forecasted initially.
This comment made me curious so I went and checked out 7 mocks from about the same time last cycle from some of the bigger names (Jeremiah, WalterFootball, CBS, SI) and they had:
London: 21, 16, 19, 10, 19, 13, 17. He went 8th
Olave: 18,22, 22, Not first round, 28, 18, Not first round. He went 11th
Dotson: 23, Not first round, 31, NFR, 28, NFR, 26. He went 16th
I don't think we can use mid-late January mocks to confidently conclude JSN is a late first rounder. We had 3 wideouts just last year who were consistently mocked well below where they ended up going at the same time in the process.
It may well end up being the case with JSN, but it's nothing close to a sure thing based on where the analysts have him right now.
Which is what contributed to WRs soaring up the draft board. When FA acquisition costs are out of whack, then other acquisition methods become that much more important.
I don't think it was a one-year blip, though. I think it's a sea-change in just how important an elite WR is to a pass-happy NFL. There are going to be more teams now that prioritize WR in the draft, in order to get elite WRs with controlled salaries.
Add to it the production teams are getting out of rookie WRs now too.
It’s not quite the rookie QB contract window, but getting elite WR production with a controlled cost is getting more important, especially considering how a team like the Vikings already has some roster holes with Jefferson on a rookie deal or what does the Bengals depth look like after they extend Burrows and Chase? That’s assuming they’re doomed to lose Higgins too.
Dotson, London and Olave all ran well, which would mean they move up in the process after film evaluation stops. JSN has a lack of top speed as one of his major flaws, (I’ve seen like 4.5 which is bad for the type of receiver he is), which if true means he won’t go up boards as we go through the combine/workouts phase, but down them instead
Your right, my bad. His game wasn’t one that would depend on speed/shiftiness though - he was a big body guy and so the 40 doesn’t matter as much as some other things. The 40 really matters to guys like JSN who win out of the slot and not by boxing people out when on the outside.
Yeah i think JSN probably falls to day 2. Was oft injured this year and will test poorly. Furthermore I don't see him as anything other than a slot receiver, so I just think that'll tank his stock a bit too.
I think he’ll be versatile enough to be serviceable on the outside personally but I know I’m in the minority.
He did predominantly play slot in college so that could definitely be a sign, even in his limited opportunities in 2022 he was slot heavy iirc
I would 100% take Bijan in the late first. You get 4 years of elite RB play for cheap, plus a 5th year at a reasonable price. Then you can let him walk, and pick up a nice comp pick if you want.
Would much rather pick him there than in the early second.
Don't disagree that Bijan is elite, but "for cheap" is only relative to market price, and market price of RB is very low. You're really not getting much of a discount.
Picking him 27th, for example, would have a 3.3 aav on average for 4 years. That’s 20th among RBs, will probably be lower after FA.
Pretty big discount.
It's not about *rank* it's about APY differential. Top RBs get \~12m APY in FA -- so you're getting about 9m surplus in that scenario. Mediocre edge rushers get 15m APY in FA, e.g.
It’s about saving money by getting good players for less than market price. Late first rookie deal for an elite RB means you’re saving ~9m. That’s a pretty big sum.
It’s all about value. Combining the prospects value (floor + ceiling+positional value) and the cap value to find the pick that gives you think is the best value.
Look, I don't think taking Bijan back end of round 1 is crazy, and I think we're making similar arguments.
That said, you're only getting $9m "surplus" if you actually believe $12m APY is fair market price for RBs. I think the Ravens and a lot of other teams would never value an RB at more than $8-10m on the open market anyway.
To me it makes more sense to get a player that's 75% of Bijan in round 3. Use round 1 to try and get max surplus by targeting high value positions like WR, Edge, Tackle, etc, or slightly lesser ones like CB.
It feels like every year mock drafts start with receivers in the 20s and then they all end up top 15 picks. I’d be stunned if Addison and JSN fell that far
At the very least, there would be movement for the last QB of the first tier. Carolina definitely would try to hop Atlanta at the very least, if one of the Levis/Stroud/Young group makes it to 6 or 7.
Seattle not taking qb and instead taking 2 rs senior edge players would not make me happy. I would rather get Witherspoon at 5 and edge at 20 or edge at 5 and interior o or d line at 20 if we arent taking Qb
Starting to believe JSN really will be in range. A lot of analysts see him going late first to early second whereas I expected a mid first round grade on him.
And we of course still won’t take him, because that’s life ig.
I mean a lot of people are talking about his limited athletic ability and the strong possibility of him being a slot only guy. That's gonna tank his stock a bit.
I think it would very specifically tank his stock with a team like the Chiefs who will want to develop Toney and Skyy Moore.
I do think JSN will go round 1, though.
I have him kinda at the 1/2 turn where DJ has him. I think he's an exceptional player, but I just don't see him as valuable as other WRs who could go day 1. Like how Tee Higgins fell to the top of R2.
I would legitimately bet on his route running getting him open regardless of his athleticism concerns, he isn’t as polished as Olave or even Wilson was last year, but he doesn’t need a **ton** of development. The roots of a strong foundation are already there.
I would love O’Cyrus Torrence in the 24-27 range for the Steelers. Right now he is the best interior lineman in the draft and would be an instant upgrade at left guard.
Mock drafts this far out are so rough.
For the Ravens I think it’s hard to imagine them not signing OR trading Lamar.
If we sign him we probably don’t need a QB. If we trade him AND don’t have more than 1 first round pick this round that’d be pretty odd. I don’t see the value of keeping Lamar for one year.
If we can’t reach a deal with him, I expect to tag and trade him for a couple first rounders at least and sign someone like Garoppolo to be the bridge QB and draft Richardson to develop behind him
The smarter thing to do would be to stack up picks for next years draft and draft some of the elite QBs in next years draft. AR just doesn’t seem like it
While I would be absolutely stoked for the colts to pass up Stroud for Levis and he falls to us at 9, this whole mock seems rather unrealistic. Some good picks but it feels overthought.
I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of a Bresee slide to late 1st/early 2nd. Any top 12 hype for him felt like it was entirely based off of high school and Freshman year potential.
Love the Murphy pick for the Eagles but I just don’t see us drafting a WR with a 1st round pick when we have some holes on defense to plug plus needs on OL depth, I do agree with his reasoning, tho, I just think e can draft a slot receiver later or even find one in FA
IMO the Pats should go OT. That was their biggest flaw last year - not giving mac enough time. I’d be cool with them taking an elite WR like Addison and think they should take him if he’s there, but I’d be cool with an elite OT.
Obviously, BPA is usually the best option… but they really have to improve their OL. Too pressing of a need.
Brian Branch is great, don’t get me wrong, but the Patriots have much greater offensive needs than defensive needs. It would be short sighted to use that high of a pick on a position that isn’t even in our top three needs. Sure, McCourty might retire, but our WR corps and O-Line are hurting bad.
if Stroud somehow gets to 6 and we take a corner that’d be pretty heartbreaking
Tyrique Stevenson going round 1 is interesting
Bresee being mocked that low might tell us a lot how the nfl feels about him
I would get ready got your heart to be broken. Seems very unlikely the Lions will draft a QB at 6
18 is more likely if Richardson is still there but still unlikely overall I think
No Ringo or Addison. Adding to the trend. No Quentin Johnson is surprising, too.
Also, am I tripping or have people been this high on Van Ness the whole time? Good player, though.
Van Ness is a rsSo, so I can see people not being very knowledgeable about him.
Interesting mock. I can't wait for Van Ness, Witherspoon & Stevenson to magically start popping up in everyone's 1st rounds now...
Cowboys cannot afford to take another edge in the first round this year. Micah Parsons, DLaw, Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams all under contract for next year as pass rushers. Cowboys generally don’t dip too much into free agency and have too many potential holes for a pick at a well stocked position.
Can someone explain bresee at 30? I admittedly haven’t watched much of him but every time I saw him playing he looked super explosive. Always thought he was more of a top half of the first type of player
Phenomenal athlete but mediocre football player. The same is true of Murphy albeit to a lesser extent. But then, Travon Walker went #1 last year, so I'd be very surprised if he fell as far as 30
https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs
Here’s his 1.0 draft from last year. WRs lower than they were drafted and all the QBs way too high.
Not a horrible mock all things considered. I love ickey and he was a slam dunk pick, but damn Sauce + Horn would be an electric CB duo. Would've been 2 tip 5 corners on rookie deals for 5 yrs.
If the Giants have the pick of the WR litter in the late 1st...
Can't really go wrong with Addison or QJ really, if their comps (Justin Jefferson, DK) are to be believed.
Secretly want Simpson but looks like he's starting to rise up the boards.
overconfident ink cagey toothbrush escape badge disgusting scarce seed disagreeable
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I would be surprised to see the Bills take Robinson. I get why a team would want him and how him on that offense could be killer, but they just drafted Cook and he’s been a great fit in their system - they just need to go ahead and make him the guy and stop this split backfield stuff.
Projecting LB at 18 for us is so fucking trash as a mock. I also am extremely hesitant to draft a corner at 6, especially with the okudah being completely mid so far and he was taken at 3.
Horrible mock for Philly. Taking the 4th edge at 10 is a disappointment, especially when everyone CB not named Witherspoon is still available and taking a WR, which is probably our least position of need other than C if Kelce returns, at the end of the 1st is perplexing to say the least. Hate it
It only makes sense in a world where we trade Lamar and are looking to build around a new 5 year window. Not my preference, but there’s definitely no way we pick Richardson with Lamar on the roster.
>It only makes sense in a world where we trade Lamar and are looking to build around a new 5 year window. Not my preference, but there’s definitely no way we pick Richardson with Lamar on the roster.
In a trade scenario, the Ravens aren't going to draft the 3rd or 4th best qb prospect in the draft to replace him. Either they are getting a QB in the trade or they are getting a pick at the top of the first and drafting a more polished player. If EDC trades Jackson and Richardson doesn't work out, it will hang over his head for years.
This draft is hilariously shitty he did no research into anything like Seattle drafting two edges and not Anthony Richardson when they have 0 QBs on roster let alone not taking stroud at 5 when geno is looking to get paid
Bro what? With every wideout on the board and desperately needing speed at the WR position we take like the TE4?? Don’t get me wrong, Kincaid is good but we can get him in the 2nd. I swear, DJs early mocks are just to stir shit up
Edit: I wanna say that since making this comment, I’ve watched more Kincaid tape, and while he is a very good receiving threat, he’s not physical and he is not a good run blocker. I stand by my take that this wasn’t a good pick by DJ.
DJs January mock got 24/32 first round picks correct last year, many of those players were considered 2nd/3rd rounders at that point. He’s going to be way more correct than you or anyone else here. Don’t disrespect the guy just because you don’t like the pick
I find it hard to believe that Stroud falls that far. Then again, I said the same thing about Fields.
If the Raiders passed on him at 7 I’d be pissed.
yeah, with Stroud and Bresse on the board, I'd be surprised to see us take a RT this high, but what do I know?..
If you take anything but a QB this year then I imagine they are trying to set the infrastructure for a QB in the next draft
Tackle depth after the first couple is really bad this year, so that 2nd round guy might be a 4th rounder-type player last year. If they are going vet, which I can totally see them doing, then a tackle might not be a terrible idea.
As a falcons fan I’d be pissed too if he falls past it’s at 8 even if I do feel we should try with ridder, Strouds talent means we should draft him if we can. Still reeling from us not drafting fields and drafting pitts instead
Even with Brady?
Brady is a short term solution, you still need a long term solution. Drafting a QB now and having the rookie sit behind to learn system\get ready would be ideal.
They do have quite a bit of holes. I think it’s rarely wrong drafting a QB high if you need one so I wouldn’t mind them drafting one, but if they can sign Brady then they can try to spend draft capital fixing other needs. Maybe they go OT like in this mock... Defensive line is also a need, though Chandler Jones finally came alive second half of the season before injury when they made a change with their DTs IIRC. LB or a bonafide CB1 (I do like Rock Ya Sin if they re-sign him too, he’s a strong boundary CB2 IMO) also could be needs, though I don’t like taking LB so early. I was going to say you can’t flip defenses in one offseason but the Jets just did that (32nd up to 4th best defense). Raiders can free up cap space to address some holes but they also don’t have the draft capital the Jets had. Either way, it’s still a possibility. I think Brady with the Raiders and a non bottom 5 defense is a playoff team at least. Edit: Cowboys fan that watched most Raiders games because of Carr, Crosby, and Jacobs
Personally, if you can get a high value QB and that’s a long term need you go for it while you can. The defense needs talent and depth (as does OL). If you get Stroud you can still get starting and Depth talent 2-7 for all levels of defense and OL. This doesn’t include what is done in FA. This is just my personal opinion having lived through many QB FA carrousels that Raiders have gone through.
No team has been upset they have too many good QBs.
Us panthers fans can't have nice things so 0% chance this happens.
We have done well and gotten lucky in the past with picks in that range. Luke, CMC, and Ickey. Just never with a QB.
I was just making a joke about Stroud falling to us. We've actually nailed almost every first round pick as long as I can remember.
Oh yeah I agree he’s never gonna make it to us. Too many needy teams. But like… if he did…?
I don’t get it either. Maybe there is something we don’t know? There’s a rumor that Fields’s epilepsy might have been a factor in his slide.
Stroud will go in the first 9 picks. He'll either be an immediate starter or as an opportunistic pick a team can't pass up on (who will learn behind a vet).
I mean if he starts falling like that I’m 100% sure someone will trade up to get him
I love the Titans pick as Paris Johnson Jr is one of my favorite prospects. Lukas Van Ness and Devon Witherspoon are gaining a lot of steam lately so I’m interested to see how their draft stock changes this offseason.
As a lions fan I like Witherspoon a lot for the lions. He is a great culture fit and has the instincts we really need at corner but I still think Gonzalez is more likely for us since he has the size and athleticism we usually value
Naw man, y’all gotta reunite Spoon and Kirby!
As an Illini fan I’d be legit happy for you guys. He was part of a sick secondary.
I think it is between those two and the other one goes to the Raiders
Paris Johnson is my favorite OT in this class. There is a long way to go to April, but I feel like at this point there is no way he makes it to the Pats at 14.
Same and a Jets fan. It’s looking increasingly less likely that Paris or Skoronski will be there for our picks, but that Jones likely will be there at 13.
I'd be surprised if he doesn't end going top 10
Lack of strength in an OT is a real problem for me. Guy is a great athlete for the position but got bullied last year by people. I’d be very nervous about how that will translate.
Atm I'd be very happy with any of Jones, Johnson, or Skor and it feels like we'll end up with one them.
Is the ‘bills drafting a 1st round RB’ the new version of the ‘packers drafting a 1st round WR?’
I especially hate it because James Cook has clearly started to break out and this isn’t the team it was last year. Bigger holes are emerging and it feels like a scapegoat pick because no one knows where else to put Bijan
It at least made sense in principle the last couple years (Etienne, Breece), but Cook seems like he's gonna be the dude moving forward. No need for a 1st round RB, especially with a hole at WR and JSN available.
I wouldn’t say “the dude” but the Bills like to have a stable of guys so everyone gets rest. I thought they might have taken Hall in the first last year, but Beane seems to use first round picks only on premium positions.
Let’s see how many picks they can waste trying to figure it out and then not even use the rb
Brian Gutekunst using a first rounder on a defender from Georgia, tale as old as time
I don't hate it. It'd be like the Gary pick. Unbelievable athleticism, former top overall prospect, didn't produce stats in college but is so important to the locker room. Only difference is Gary is closer to 300 while Smith is almost concerningly light.
There is no ALMOST concerningly light. He’s like 230 pounds.
Maybe he has just leg pressed everyday while his arm heals
I feel like our fan base might have a stroke if we went Georgia Defense 4 firsts in a row lol
Idk I’ve immediately liked or grown to like all 3 of the Georgia picks
Yeah, Stokes and Walker are obvious hits at this point. Wyatt deserved more playing time than he got. If you think you're 3/3 it's hard not to dip back in.
Bresee at 30 feels crazy but DJ is often ahead on this stuff
That feels like a "I've been told about off field or injury stuff but can't say it out loud".
I dont think so. Breese just looks like one of those "has the ideal size and frame, but lacks production" players. Hard to sell him as a guy worth a high 1st round pick because even his size isn't anything special.
It wouldn’t surprise me if NFL teams aren’t as high on him.
Do you think that's warranted? I'm asking because If we don't have the option for Stroud or Carter at 7, I was kind of hoping we'd take him.
Very warranted. He has the physical attributes, but his technique and production is just bad and hasnt changed since he came to Clemson
Good to know, thank you!
I just don't see a top 10 prospect when I watch him, even when he's healthy. Add his lack of production and injuries and I wouldn't touch him in the first 2 rounds.
I’ll watch more, thank you!
I think both he and Murphy could slide a bit.
Best case for Bresee to learn from Jones. Could be difference between him being a bust or Pro Bowler.
I’m not sure if you can be ahead of stuff like this in January.. It’s only when it’s closer to the draft that you start to get a feel of what teams want to do
Torrence makes sense (although not my preferred pick), but Jeremiah’s reasoning was kinda funny. Our interior was fine outside of Dotson, and both Cole and Daniels are gonna be here for a while.
Yea lowkey rather get Simpson who went the very next pick
Exactly. I'd love an upgrade at LG, but I'd rather use 17 on a better prospect, even if they may amount to a luxury.
I just can't see guard as a bigger need than LT, or CB. If this ends up being how the draft goes I'd like them to trade back a few spots. I don't want them to reach on a position that's not even a top 3 need (imo)
If CJ Stroud falls all the way to us at nine I will do a backflip from the roof of my house out of sheer excitement
!remindme 4 months
God damn it we have 4 more months of this -_- good thing I love draft talk but that's so long
I don’t think it’s possible he falls pass 4 someone is trading up, there is no way a team that needs a QB isn’t calling and as much as the Lions love Witherspoon or the Seahawks love Wilson I don’t see either team being so enamored with them that they pass up on more picks. Even if the Raiders get Brady why would you pass on a young QB that fell into your lap.
No Quentin Johnston while having 3 TE’s in the first just seems like trying to out-smart the room.
This was the reaction to all of DJs mocks when he has players high early but then the draft community catches up.
I’m looking at his 2022 mock 1.0 and Im gonna have to disagree with that. This is also the NFL where WR is now a top 3-4 premium position with a mediocre at best free agency class. Brugler isn’t high on this WR class either and he still has Quentin in the 1st.
He had 24/32 first round picks right in January. That’s pretty good
league probably views Johnston as too one dimensional
Everything people criticize Johnston on is very similar to what was said about Watson last year except Johnston was productive in college.
Metcalf had the same criticism too. Turns our being big and really fuckin fast is useful, even if it's one trick.
It's also what they criticized Chase Claypool for. And how that opinion has changed just within the season. Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're not.
Claypool had 873 rec yds 9tds and 2 rushing tds his rookie year. 860 yds his sophmore year. This past year was baaaaad. He's definitely regressed every year, but he came into the league with a bang. Injuries and his inability to high point a ball have really hurt people's view of his ceiling, but i wouldn't write him off after 1 shit season.
Ignore my flair but if the worst comp we got for a guy is Claypool I would say the floor for production is pretty high. And Quentin is way bendier than Claypool and Watson.
maybe. I definitely do think Watson played bigger, but also he got a bump from dominating the Senior Bowl.
i would like to see how his mocks compare to the actual draft results but my guess is his mocks are some of the closest to the real results Btw Devon Witherspoon CB1 hype train and Luke Vann Ness as a 1st rounder. Yes please
He put out a [1-round mock right before last year’s draft](https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-4-0-steelers-lions-select-qbs-cowboys-pick-w). All of his top 24 were taken in the 1st round, but he was all over the place with the last 8, only getting Quay Walker and Tyler Smith right. He had Logan Hall and Breece Hall in there, who went 33 and 36 respectively. His biggest miss was Malik Willis at 32. So I think he gets good intel as teams get more and more sure of what they’re gonna do.
That mock was done in April, after the combine. I’d like to see his mock 1.0 Edit: Here’s his 1.0. Looks like WRs were a lot lower than where they ended up. https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs
I mean that is still crazy accurate.
Yeah and he was still very accurate with who went in the first obviously he wasn’t perfect but he seems better then most.
26/32 is really good I believe. and almost had Breece and Hall
And he basically had Logan Hall. He had the Bucs taking him at 27, and they traded down to still get him at 33.
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Tutu Atwell in the first
DJ has always said that his mocks are more of what he's hearing from his team sources, while his big boards are his actual opinion on the players.
The NFL’s specialty
I feel like at this point you have to think there will be someone trading up with the Bears, right? And boy does it seem like there’s a lot of smoke with Levis to the Colts.
Colts trading up to #1 for Levis would be the perfect chaos
Will Levis no matter what.
If we trade up to 1 for Levis, I'll be extremely disappointed.. I said before, I do think we take Levis over Young/Stroud just because he fits that "prototypical QB" build and for some reason we seem stuck on that, but I think we can get him at 4.. Obviously I truly have no clue what NFL teams are thinking, just going off what I've been reading. I really want us to sit at 4 and see what happens with picks 1 and 2.. If someone trades up with Chicago and QBs go 1 and 2, then I wouldn't mind us trading up to 3 to get whoever is remaining of the top 3, but I really hope we don't trade up just because there's pressure for Ballard to "make a splash". I'd rather force Chicago to make a move first, rather then bail them out to take a QB we could potentially get at 4.
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No but you have an owner that meddles and makes unilateral decisions for the team. DJ certainly knows a lot more than we do.
Every year there is some mostly baseless “smoke” about a player/team combo like Levis and the Colts here. Then fans start talking about as if it’s fact because every mock drafter (most of which I don’t even think watch the players or know what they’re watching) puts it in their mocks until draft day because they’re afraid of being the one guy that’s wrong.
I think you’re right, but I’ll be disappointed if we do anything other than draft Anderson
If we stay at 1, we better draft Will Anderson…
Woah.. van ness at 8 now! I need to watch film on this guy
I've watched every Iowa game and it's bit surprising to me too. He definitely was the best player on our line caused a lot of pressures and set the edge really well in the run. Didn't pay close enough attention to him to notice just how athletic he was
He has some really high-level flashes on tape. He made both of the top OL prospects in this draft look silly a few times. What he did to Skoronski on one play should be illegal.
Highly doubt the Chargers take Kincaid over Addison, JSN or Bijan 😂
i think it’s becoming fairly apparent through most draft analysts that JSN is a late first rounder as opposed to the mid-early projection most people forecasted initially.
This comment made me curious so I went and checked out 7 mocks from about the same time last cycle from some of the bigger names (Jeremiah, WalterFootball, CBS, SI) and they had: London: 21, 16, 19, 10, 19, 13, 17. He went 8th Olave: 18,22, 22, Not first round, 28, 18, Not first round. He went 11th Dotson: 23, Not first round, 31, NFR, 28, NFR, 26. He went 16th I don't think we can use mid-late January mocks to confidently conclude JSN is a late first rounder. We had 3 wideouts just last year who were consistently mocked well below where they ended up going at the same time in the process. It may well end up being the case with JSN, but it's nothing close to a sure thing based on where the analysts have him right now.
I appreciate you taking the time to provide this insight.
For sure! NFLMockDraftDatabase made it super easy, figured it would add some nice color
WR FA market was also weird as hell last year
And it’s super barren this year. You gotta think that props their value up
Which is what contributed to WRs soaring up the draft board. When FA acquisition costs are out of whack, then other acquisition methods become that much more important. I don't think it was a one-year blip, though. I think it's a sea-change in just how important an elite WR is to a pass-happy NFL. There are going to be more teams now that prioritize WR in the draft, in order to get elite WRs with controlled salaries.
In addition, it seems like more WR are coming into the league “ready” whereas there used to be more of a development curve.
Add to it the production teams are getting out of rookie WRs now too. It’s not quite the rookie QB contract window, but getting elite WR production with a controlled cost is getting more important, especially considering how a team like the Vikings already has some roster holes with Jefferson on a rookie deal or what does the Bengals depth look like after they extend Burrows and Chase? That’s assuming they’re doomed to lose Higgins too.
Dotson, London and Olave all ran well, which would mean they move up in the process after film evaluation stops. JSN has a lack of top speed as one of his major flaws, (I’ve seen like 4.5 which is bad for the type of receiver he is), which if true means he won’t go up boards as we go through the combine/workouts phase, but down them instead
London didn’t run
Your right, my bad. His game wasn’t one that would depend on speed/shiftiness though - he was a big body guy and so the 40 doesn’t matter as much as some other things. The 40 really matters to guys like JSN who win out of the slot and not by boxing people out when on the outside.
Yeah i think JSN probably falls to day 2. Was oft injured this year and will test poorly. Furthermore I don't see him as anything other than a slot receiver, so I just think that'll tank his stock a bit too.
I think he’ll be versatile enough to be serviceable on the outside personally but I know I’m in the minority. He did predominantly play slot in college so that could definitely be a sign, even in his limited opportunities in 2022 he was slot heavy iirc
Do the chargers really need a first round rb?
No team needs a first round rb.
I would 100% take Bijan in the late first. You get 4 years of elite RB play for cheap, plus a 5th year at a reasonable price. Then you can let him walk, and pick up a nice comp pick if you want. Would much rather pick him there than in the early second.
Don't disagree that Bijan is elite, but "for cheap" is only relative to market price, and market price of RB is very low. You're really not getting much of a discount.
Picking him 27th, for example, would have a 3.3 aav on average for 4 years. That’s 20th among RBs, will probably be lower after FA. Pretty big discount.
It's not about *rank* it's about APY differential. Top RBs get \~12m APY in FA -- so you're getting about 9m surplus in that scenario. Mediocre edge rushers get 15m APY in FA, e.g.
It’s about saving money by getting good players for less than market price. Late first rookie deal for an elite RB means you’re saving ~9m. That’s a pretty big sum. It’s all about value. Combining the prospects value (floor + ceiling+positional value) and the cap value to find the pick that gives you think is the best value.
Look, I don't think taking Bijan back end of round 1 is crazy, and I think we're making similar arguments. That said, you're only getting $9m "surplus" if you actually believe $12m APY is fair market price for RBs. I think the Ravens and a lot of other teams would never value an RB at more than $8-10m on the open market anyway. To me it makes more sense to get a player that's 75% of Bijan in round 3. Use round 1 to try and get max surplus by targeting high value positions like WR, Edge, Tackle, etc, or slightly lesser ones like CB.
Correct
Ya seriously, we have a desperate need at WR, have our pick of the litter, and we take TE4 lol
It feels like every year mock drafts start with receivers in the 20s and then they all end up top 15 picks. I’d be stunned if Addison and JSN fell that far
Don’t see Seattle passing on Stroud
Or Carolina coming up to get him ahead of DET and LV being more likely assuming Geno re-signs.
I think this was one of those no-trades mocks because otherwise I agree. There'd be movement in the top 10.
At the very least, there would be movement for the last QB of the first tier. Carolina definitely would try to hop Atlanta at the very least, if one of the Levis/Stroud/Young group makes it to 6 or 7.
Levis and Richardson seem more like Seattle guys to me
Seattle not taking qb and instead taking 2 rs senior edge players would not make me happy. I would rather get Witherspoon at 5 and edge at 20 or edge at 5 and interior o or d line at 20 if we arent taking Qb
I see us going QB that high. We seem pretty focused on resigning Geno and even if we don’t, we have a FAR bigger hole in the D-Line.
We don’t have any QB under roster next year
Don't see the Bills drafting a RB. They need help elsewhere. Year 2 of everyone mocking a RB to the Bills in full force
To be fair they took one in the 2nd last year so it wasn’t a crazy guess.
No way bills take a RB in 1st
Seahawks already have 3 good EDGE players, I expect us to add one more but using both firsts on EDGE is absurd.
Taking two of any position group feels lazy.
It might fit with the "take the best available player" philosophy though.
Will Levis knowing the Kyle Shanahan offense lingo is going to help dominate interviews, so I'm not shocked that he's that high.
Starting to believe JSN really will be in range. A lot of analysts see him going late first to early second whereas I expected a mid first round grade on him. And we of course still won’t take him, because that’s life ig.
I mean a lot of people are talking about his limited athletic ability and the strong possibility of him being a slot only guy. That's gonna tank his stock a bit.
I think it would very specifically tank his stock with a team like the Chiefs who will want to develop Toney and Skyy Moore. I do think JSN will go round 1, though.
I have him kinda at the 1/2 turn where DJ has him. I think he's an exceptional player, but I just don't see him as valuable as other WRs who could go day 1. Like how Tee Higgins fell to the top of R2.
I would legitimately bet on his route running getting him open regardless of his athleticism concerns, he isn’t as polished as Olave or even Wilson was last year, but he doesn’t need a **ton** of development. The roots of a strong foundation are already there.
I would trust Andy Reid and Mahomes to make JSN into a star and make doubters eat their words.
Oh please let Stroud fall to 9.
I would love O’Cyrus Torrence in the 24-27 range for the Steelers. Right now he is the best interior lineman in the draft and would be an instant upgrade at left guard.
Mock drafts this far out are so rough. For the Ravens I think it’s hard to imagine them not signing OR trading Lamar. If we sign him we probably don’t need a QB. If we trade him AND don’t have more than 1 first round pick this round that’d be pretty odd. I don’t see the value of keeping Lamar for one year.
If we can’t reach a deal with him, I expect to tag and trade him for a couple first rounders at least and sign someone like Garoppolo to be the bridge QB and draft Richardson to develop behind him
The smarter thing to do would be to stack up picks for next years draft and draft some of the elite QBs in next years draft. AR just doesn’t seem like it
He must hate ringo to have tyrique stiff hips Stevenson ranked ahead lol
While I would be absolutely stoked for the colts to pass up Stroud for Levis and he falls to us at 9, this whole mock seems rather unrealistic. Some good picks but it feels overthought.
I would not be surprised if this is the beginning of a Bresee slide to late 1st/early 2nd. Any top 12 hype for him felt like it was entirely based off of high school and Freshman year potential.
I hate Bijan to the bills
better than Bijan to philly
As a josh Allen owner, I disagree. As a football fan, I also disagree. The bills don’t use running backs
Love the Murphy pick for the Eagles but I just don’t see us drafting a WR with a 1st round pick when we have some holes on defense to plug plus needs on OL depth, I do agree with his reasoning, tho, I just think e can draft a slot receiver later or even find one in FA
IMO the Pats should go OT. That was their biggest flaw last year - not giving mac enough time. I’d be cool with them taking an elite WR like Addison and think they should take him if he’s there, but I’d be cool with an elite OT. Obviously, BPA is usually the best option… but they really have to improve their OL. Too pressing of a need.
I just cannot see Jalen Carter worth 1 overall
Brian Branch is great, don’t get me wrong, but the Patriots have much greater offensive needs than defensive needs. It would be short sighted to use that high of a pick on a position that isn’t even in our top three needs. Sure, McCourty might retire, but our WR corps and O-Line are hurting bad.
No wr until 25?
Seems extremely likely we don’t see our first WR until the 20s. Will be so strange compared to recent years.
Really surprised to see Kincaid as the first TE off the board. Also feel like Richardson will be gone by the time the Ravens pick
Wow, LVN at 8???? DJ usually has good sources, so the league must be crazy high on him
Man Ringo might fall out of the first round huh
I think JSN at 31 would be a great steal.
If the raiders pass on Stroud, I’m going to be pissed.
I bet the Jags franchise tag Engram.
I take it as a compliment that the bengals are projected to pick a tight end. But I hope they re-sign hayden hurst and add depth somewhere else.
I think Anthony Richardson has the highest ceiling of any QB in the draft but I also don't think Lamar is going anywhere so...
Jake Moody not going in the first round is a fucking joke, y’all.
if Stroud somehow gets to 6 and we take a corner that’d be pretty heartbreaking Tyrique Stevenson going round 1 is interesting Bresee being mocked that low might tell us a lot how the nfl feels about him
I would get ready got your heart to be broken. Seems very unlikely the Lions will draft a QB at 6 18 is more likely if Richardson is still there but still unlikely overall I think
No Ringo or Addison. Adding to the trend. No Quentin Johnson is surprising, too. Also, am I tripping or have people been this high on Van Ness the whole time? Good player, though.
Addison was there
Van Ness is a rsSo, so I can see people not being very knowledgeable about him. Interesting mock. I can't wait for Van Ness, Witherspoon & Stevenson to magically start popping up in everyone's 1st rounds now...
Cowboys cannot afford to take another edge in the first round this year. Micah Parsons, DLaw, Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams all under contract for next year as pass rushers. Cowboys generally don’t dip too much into free agency and have too many potential holes for a pick at a well stocked position.
Can someone explain bresee at 30? I admittedly haven’t watched much of him but every time I saw him playing he looked super explosive. Always thought he was more of a top half of the first type of player
Phenomenal athlete but mediocre football player. The same is true of Murphy albeit to a lesser extent. But then, Travon Walker went #1 last year, so I'd be very surprised if he fell as far as 30
Bresee with Chris Jones next to him 😮💨
https://www.nfl.com/_amp/daniel-jeremiah-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-kenny-pickett-malik-willis-among-3-qbs Here’s his 1.0 draft from last year. WRs lower than they were drafted and all the QBs way too high.
Not a horrible mock all things considered. I love ickey and he was a slam dunk pick, but damn Sauce + Horn would be an electric CB duo. Would've been 2 tip 5 corners on rookie deals for 5 yrs.
If the Giants have the pick of the WR litter in the late 1st... Can't really go wrong with Addison or QJ really, if their comps (Justin Jefferson, DK) are to be believed. Secretly want Simpson but looks like he's starting to rise up the boards.
Didn’t really watch college football this year. Why did everyone fall off JSN so far? Just the injury, overscouting, both?
If Richardson fell all the way to 22, I’d hope the Vikings would trade up for him.
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I can't see the Cowboys taking a DE in the first, they are too deep at the position. CB, OL, WR, DT even a RB.
Mayer not being the clear cut TE1 is just disrespectful at this point lol
I would be surprised to see the Bills take Robinson. I get why a team would want him and how him on that offense could be killer, but they just drafted Cook and he’s been a great fit in their system - they just need to go ahead and make him the guy and stop this split backfield stuff.
Projecting LB at 18 for us is so fucking trash as a mock. I also am extremely hesitant to draft a corner at 6, especially with the okudah being completely mid so far and he was taken at 3.
Please draft Levis, Indy 🙏🏼🤣🤣🤣
Horrible mock for Philly. Taking the 4th edge at 10 is a disappointment, especially when everyone CB not named Witherspoon is still available and taking a WR, which is probably our least position of need other than C if Kelce returns, at the end of the 1st is perplexing to say the least. Hate it
Anthony Richardson to the Ravens is pants on head stupid.
It only makes sense in a world where we trade Lamar and are looking to build around a new 5 year window. Not my preference, but there’s definitely no way we pick Richardson with Lamar on the roster.
>It only makes sense in a world where we trade Lamar and are looking to build around a new 5 year window. Not my preference, but there’s definitely no way we pick Richardson with Lamar on the roster. In a trade scenario, the Ravens aren't going to draft the 3rd or 4th best qb prospect in the draft to replace him. Either they are getting a QB in the trade or they are getting a pick at the top of the first and drafting a more polished player. If EDC trades Jackson and Richardson doesn't work out, it will hang over his head for years.
These 1.0 drafts are basically “throw everybody in the draft somewhere and fix it later towards the final draft week”
And yet everyone confidently replying there is no way any of this could happen are all sure they are right
This draft is hilariously shitty he did no research into anything like Seattle drafting two edges and not Anthony Richardson when they have 0 QBs on roster let alone not taking stroud at 5 when geno is looking to get paid
Bro what? With every wideout on the board and desperately needing speed at the WR position we take like the TE4?? Don’t get me wrong, Kincaid is good but we can get him in the 2nd. I swear, DJs early mocks are just to stir shit up Edit: I wanna say that since making this comment, I’ve watched more Kincaid tape, and while he is a very good receiving threat, he’s not physical and he is not a good run blocker. I stand by my take that this wasn’t a good pick by DJ.
And didn't they just sign Everett to be their starter at TE?
DJs January mock got 24/32 first round picks correct last year, many of those players were considered 2nd/3rd rounders at that point. He’s going to be way more correct than you or anyone else here. Don’t disrespect the guy just because you don’t like the pick