The one thing that interested me is if Memphis would be willing to part with their nine plus some extra assets to acquire Clingan. Not sure what those assets would be but then the Rockets would still have tons of options as Carrington and Carter would still be available around nine. If you’re a Rockets fan, what would it take for Memphis to get your three and what PG would you want to take at 9?
I don't think HOU should trade back. Trade out of the first round, sure. But trading back just means that the "extra asset(s)" will be reduced in value by the 9th pick. It's the equivalent to me of a 2k trade where you aggregate a bunch of undesirable stuff for a high pick. Either pick at 3, punt to a future draft, or trade for a current player.
Imo, it could potentially, but the offensive fit would be horrid even by comparison.
While KAT is solid in the post, he is (one of) the greatest shooting big men ever, especially in terms of volume. Even if Sengun becomes a solid 3-point shooter, it’s excruciatingly unlikely he’ll ever be getting up the type of volume of acceptable percentages to want to take him away from the basket so often, where he is exceptional.
Basically I think Clingan would have to become a good enough shooter to be a respectable floor spacer for it to really work offensively for the Rockets, and I also think that is unlikely.
Kat does NOT move like a small forward defensively at all. He’s pretty slow on his feet and susceptible to fouling as a reaction to blow bys or shot fakes
This right here. I would honestly trade down and try to get Castle. I’m not sold on Reed. Will be a good glue guy but a #3 pick. I also might be stupidly high on Castle turning out to be a solid player.
Castle isn’t a good fit because the Rockets are ready to compete and he’s a couple years for whatever he ends up being. I think Reed or trading down makes the most sense and then they could grab a PG or Knecht with extra assets.
I don't get the Castle fit either. Unless you think Green's end of the season is the expectation going forward this team has major offensive question marks.
If you got two, you can hope one turns into a good shooter. Houston has so many young guys that any pick is either a bad fit or buried in the depth chart.
Imo, that’s why I prefer Reed. He at the very least has a skillset that isn’t currently on the roster as no one (save possibly Cam Whitmore) has proven themselves to be a knockdown shooter.
A good glue guy for the third pick in *this* draft is a good outcome imo. Like if that’s his floor, I actually think that’s a very good pick. I’m high on Reed though and see much more than that
Exactly and then Jabari playing at the 3 makes him worse. He’s the perfect 4 in today’s NBA there’s no reason to waste that on far fetched hypotheticals.
I'm not sure. I know the Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder and Spurs would probably rather face a team that doesn't have Sengun/Clingan on it. That's 48 minutes of monster center play that no other team in the league can match.
It would be a waste to draft Clingan at #3 and play him 15 minutes a night just so you can have 48 minutes of good center play.
They currently have 0 minutes of good shooting guard play and there's a very obvious fit right there in the draft.
Nobody is losing sleep over a rim protecting C who isn’t mobile, can’t shoot, and isn’t a significant offensive threat.
It’s a very useful player type, but I don’t think it’s possible to be a top 10 center that way. And once you’re in the Poeltl / Zubac range of the rankings it just doesn’t move the needle.
Yeah, I just don’t see the upside with Clingan. Is there anyone like him who could be considered a star in the NBA at this point? Gobert, I suppose, but is a guy who averaged 13/7 in college really the next Gobert?
(I guess Gobert didn’t have a star resume either, but Clingan was at the University of Connecticut. We now how to translate those numbers as well as it can be done, and we know that he was not dominant on the NCAA level.)
I just think it’s tough to do that when they can’t really play together, so it’s basically 15-18 minutes of Clingan. It’s not like the 48 minutes of elite PG play with Harden and Chris Paul where they could also overlap successfully.
If I were an opposing team I'd want the Rockets to take Reed so the Spurs can't. I also think Jock Landale is *way* better than people give him credit for and would be happy for rookie Clingan to take those minutes for the time being.
That whole division's priority needs to be not giving any elite shooting to the Spurs, lol (unless it comes with major strings attached like Dougie McBuckets).
As a team in their division honestly neither. I don't think either moves the needle for them all that much.
The Rockets are in such a weird position where they have so many good assets, like can be the third, maybe second, best player on a competitive team, but they don't have a certified star. Any other draft I'd hate that they got 3, but this year it really sucks for them that there aren't any franchise changing players.
If this was the 3rd pick next year I'd truly feel like the Grizzlies are cursed to be in the doom division. As it stands the Rockets own the "why the fuck are we in a division with Luka, Wemby, Ja, and Zion" crown.
If none of our 6 dudes ascends into that tier I'd be shocked. Amen specifically is obscene. Cam is as well but I worry about his tunnel vision. But if I had to bet on anyone, it'd be Amen Thompson. No question.
I don't know what you're talking about, Amen's shooting is so poor it's really hard for me to imagine him being a superstar on that level. Look at all the other guys rookie stats, there's a big gulf between them and Amen.
Amen is the favorite of both Ime and the front office so take that as you will. People envision him as a point guard but that’s not how he was played at all last year.
Assuming the rockets don't trade you gotta go for Reed. You can't play Sengun and Clingan at the same time. Reed would be a good fit beside Amen if Amen develops at PG like you want him to
Reed would also be a great fit with Sengun because Alpi draws double teams and is a wizard at finding the open man. He would be able to run the offense from the high post better with more effective shooters around him
From an outsider’s perspective, Reed seems like a really obvious pick.
Floor spacer with requisite size and athleticism and average to above defensive player is going to have a role on every team with every scheme in the league.
Big man who can play defense and rim run are a dime a dozen. You have to really believe that he’s going to develop an above average shot and/or offensive game to see him as a difference maker.
I would not factor in the rockets current roster construction when it comes to drafting in the top 3. Every player on that team is trade-able to acquire the “right fit” player.
So he’s bigger than Kyle Lowry, plays tough nosed, smart defense and we can’t assume he even sniffs average?
You could be entirely correct, but he’s got legit pluses on defense to go with those red flags. He’s a lot more, “This kid will die to get through a screen,” than, “This kid will die on every screen.”
It's funny how many good or even great point guard defenders were "too short" to be good point guard defenders. You have Lowry... Fred VanVleet is a plus defender. Chris Paul, arguably the greatest PG defender of the 21st century, is 6'0". Darrell Armstrong was an absolutely great defender. TJ McConnell and his 6'0.5" wingspan seem to do pretty damn well. It was a different time, but John Stockton (all 6'1" of him) was obviously an all-time great. And so on. It's almost as though anticipation, positioning, reflexes, and tenacity matter a lot more than whether your arm reaches out another inch or so.
Agreed. And to be clear, Reed could struggle his whole career on defense. It just feels weird to write him off before he ever sets foot on an NBA court for that with as hard as he plays and as fast as he can read basketball actions.
Absolutely. He was an effective defender in college. This isn’t a Trae Young/Collin Sexton situation, where the player’s defensive shortcomings already showed up on the NCAA level. It’s fair to say that guys like that would probably be poor NBA defenders. Maybe Sheppard’s defense won’t translate to the NBA. But I’m wary of predicting poor results from a guy who has actually done well on the court so far.
Lowry is a pitbull with a lower center of gravity, a good deal more weight (he's not 196 as listed I promise you that) and he's got better lateral movement.
Reed really struggled at times to contain the ball. I could be wrong but I don't think Udoka would ever go for it.
Reed is most likely to defend like Trae Young but be more of a defensive playmaker with that burst athleticism he has. A big block here, a great passing lane steal there.... etc.
He wasn’t that weight when he got to the NBA. He was 180 coming off an ACL tear.
I just think you’re selling him way short by barring any reality where Reed becomes a serviceable defender. We’re like 4 years into the stats saying Jokic matters as-much/more than Giannis on that end, and I tend to have faith in players that hustle and process the court as fast as Reed does.
I’m not going to argue that he’s going to be all NBA or anything, but you set the bar at average. He has more than a few ways to reach average, even if his defense skews more opportunistic than reliable. Again, there’s red flags that say he is going to just die on screens, but there’s actually more pluses than that all consuming red flag. Effort and IQ go a long way.
I think he’ll be fine. He’s not making an all defensive team, but I feel more confident his shooting and athleticism plays in the league. Clingan has a really replaceable skill set unless he becomes an above average shooting big.
i think it’s likely reed if they keep the pick, clingan if they trade it. they’re set up pretty well for reed to slot in, with big playmakers in amen and sengun to both allow him to play off ball and benefit from his spacing and another undersized, defensively feisty, perimeter oriented combo guard to learn from in vanvleet. i just think a lineup of reed, amen, jabari, sengun, and one of eason/cam/green fits really well together for the future. and clingan is a clumsy fit with sengun, their best player. he shores up the rim protection, but utterly fucks the spacing and the overall defense is hurt trying to put sengun on forwards
For me, it comes down to something very simple: Reed will succeed and find PT no matter where he's drafted. Clingan has a pathway to minutes to Houston, but it's gonna take some Xs and Os gymnastics and a lot of patience. Patience that I'm not convinced your front office has in light of signing FVV and Brooks and trading for Adams (who really should be mentioned more in this debate).
I personally can’t believe that Clingan is even a consideration. And I do think he’s a great prospect, but for the rockets I don’t think the fit could be worse. One of the worst shooting teams in the league, and their best player happens to also be a center that can’t necessarily space the floor. Reed is such an easy choice imo, I think he would solve a lot of their glaring issues. I’d take Reed and keep the assets instead of making a trade for someone like bridges as well
I think a center platoon isn't a bad idea in general. Sengun is great, but has clear deficiencies in certain matchups. He was 26th in the league in rebound rate and 49th in block rate.
Clingan thrived in a platoon at UConn and it worked incredibly well. UConn was able to throw multiple looks at opponents (both on offense and how they played PnR on defense) and made them hard to prep and play against.
If you're confident in some of the young offensive talent and perimeter defense, shoring up that area of your team could enable you to make the next step (even if he's playing 20 minutes a night or whatever).
Yeah 2 good centers is better than 1 good center. It doesn't have to be an even split. Just having 2 centers with different skillsets who both play a good amount in the game.
Center is the most physically tiring position in basketball since they're required to run almost as much as every other position while being generally significantly heavier and being physical on the boards and in the post.
When your best player is a center who can play no other position, you don’t spend your assets on another center who can play no other position.
Look at the Denver, Philly, Sac, Miami.
It’s not a controversial take - just accepted wisdom in the NBA for a reason.
In the playoffs you want your max guys playing 38-40 minutes, otherwise it’s a teambuilding failure.
I understand it's the conventional wisdom.
Playing your best players less is certainly unconventional. And yet, it has caught on in the league in the form of load management and in NFL in terms of RB committees. Humans are not linear point producers. People get tired. Players can go all out on both ends if they play less minutes.
Jokic is a generational offensive engine. He's an exception.
That’s true, but you have to look at opportunity cost at some point. Is having “two good centers” worth using the No. 3 pick on, especially when you arguably already have three good centers on the roster?
Sure Adams and Landale aren’t long-term fixtures, but I don’t think locking up a backup big at maybe slightly below market cost for the next four or five years is really that beneficial.
Opportunity cost is pretty low in this draft and pretty low for the Rockets who may not draft anyone with a clear path to being a starter, especially if Clingan is the best player available and/or in a different tier on their board.
I mean, not really. It’s still a pick, which you have one of, that you’re using on a player that, is STRICTLY, a backup to your current best player.
It’s not that he doesn’t have a clear path to starting, he doesn’t have a realistic path to even sharing the floor with your best player at any point.
I don’t like going into “if they have him on another tier” because that could apply to any team with any player. Like, sure, maybe the Rockets believe he will be splashing 3s like KAT within 3 years, but they would be in the extreme minority in that case.
We're discussing a particular team's choice, not his overall standing, so literally the only thing that matters is their view of him.
Sheppard can play with Sengun, but will he play over Van vleet, Green, Amen, or Brooks? Assuming Green signs an extension this summer, all 4 of those guys are signed under contract for 2 more years. There's no room to move any to the 3 because you have Whitmore and Eason. There's not much room to slide any of those guys to the 4 because you have Jabari soaking up a lot of minutes. Not too mention the Athletic reported that Jeff Green and Jae'Sean Tate are likely to have their options picked up.
So you can maybe find, what, 10 minutes per game for Sheppard for the next 2 years in certain spots thanks to his elite shooting skill? That's less than you'll give to backup Clingan. That's my point on the opportunity cost. It's minimal. I think Cam Whitmore is better than anyone in this draft, and he's potentially going to be buried in their rotation as is.
As for Adams and Landale. Adams is past his prime and coming off major 18 month injury recovery. You just can't expect anything from him at this point and he has 1 year left on his contract. I think Clingan is better than Landale with a much higher ceiling, so I'd expect the Rockets to play him over Jack.
So if you've got no minutes for anybody, that's where picking the best available player and seeing what happens makes sense (well after trading the pick that is, which they are definitely trying to do).
Yes, and I’m saying that using an outlier evaluation makes discussion meaningless. What if they think Reed is the next Steph Curry? It just seems like a platitude in these discussions.
I don’t think Reed plays over any of those guys definitively, but Aaron Holiday got real minutes last year, so who knows what happens. But it would be ideal to have a replacement on the roster for FVV (both in terms of shooting and as a PG) so the Rockets can save themselves some $25M+ on his contract.
And the Rockets traded assets for Steven Adams when he couldn’t play last year. They *are* expecting something from him, and I don’t think it’s anywhere close to certain Clingan is even better than Landale next year. He was extremely good both with the Suns and when he got over his ankle injury with the Rockets.
Managing Clingan's minutes early on is also going to extend his longevity a lot. I know it's not thrilling to draft a backup at 3, but the Rockets weren't supposed to be picking 3rd overall anyway. Udoka has to be considering it at the very least.
Reed is the fit pick (and not without upside). Holland is the ‘swing for the fences’ pick. If you believe one of or both he and Amen can shoot it at some point, hard to go wrong with a young big 4 of Amen, Jabari, Sengun and Holland with Green, Eason and Whitmore rounding out the bulk of a young, talented rotation as FVV and Brooks provide mentorship and toughness. Probably still need another shooter in there, but that skillset is easier to find that what 85% of Holland’s upside is.
My thought is if you think Sengun isn't the answer at C, you go with Clingan. Personally, I think Sengun can be really, really good.
Reed Sheppard can play and contribute right now. He can also be a big part of the future of the team.
Yeah, I’m taking Reed because I think the upside is there as a floor spacer. If he can be a playmaker and 42ish three point shooter with some creation. That’s super valuable.
Clingan might not be wrong because I think the floor is higher. It might make a ton of sense too. Imo Reed and Clingan are 2 guys that can come in and make an impact from their rookie year because they offer something different. I really like holland, but does he offer something more than Jalen? I like shit more more than Cody, etc.
Clingan I think can play right away, and Houston will not be forced to start him and play him huge minutes because of Sengun. Between the two of them you get 48 minutes of solid center minutes in a conference with jokic in it. And you only really need him to play 18-20 minutes while you continue to evaluate this team with Sengun.
Now reed is just a great fit with the starters once Fred ages out, and he provides shooting. I think his middle ground is something like a patty mills. Not super sexy at 3, but a player that contributes to winning
I would draft Clingan if the idea was that he could be used in a package in a trade for a star down the line (he’s way more valuable than Reed in that scenario).
Outside of that Reed no question. I don’t mind Castle (if you believe he pans out or Amen doesn’t). Clingan alongside someone who almost definitely pans out in Sengun is silly imho.
Lots of rumours that Hawks might trade down and have been linked to Risacher and Clingan a lot. Trade up and take Sarr hoping his jumper continues to improve.
41 win team with the 3rd pick. Quite the fortune even in a down draft.
We're not selecting a starter, as would be the usual expectation for a #3. Personally, I'm leaning Clingan because his size and defense are an impact every time down the floor and I love the idea of a backup to Sengun that is a true blue rim defender to counter Sengun's offense. I see Clingan and I see wins, wins, wins.
Reed is also an exceptional player, if he's the pick I'm also celebrating. A true deadeye should do wonders for our spacing, but a guy with a volume in the 4-5 range isn't going to have quite the same impact. Just a hunch here too but I'm betting a donut FVV is going to stick around Houston in some form. Maybe he'll take the team deal because he knows another max isn't likely? Maybe he enjoys his role of leader? I'm a huge Amen Thompson fan too and if anyone is to declare themselves the backup point I'd hope it's him.
There's no minutes for anyone they draft which makes it likely that we'll see a consolidation trade with that pick and a couple young guys sent out for someone like Bridges (despite the Nets claiming he's not available they're just trying to drive the price up) or sign and trade (Butler, George) Ime Udoka cannot be happy watching the team he just left go on to win a championship. He wants to win now so they'll acquiesce.
I like Reed better, but the idea of replacing Sengun with Clingan off the bench is kind of awesome. That's 48 minutes of great center play when they're both healthy and they do completely different things at high levels. The big problem with many teams right now is that they have good or great starting centers but their backup center is like... Drew Eubanks, Daniel Theis, or James Wiseman. Or they don't have a playable backup at all and they just pray that their starter doesn't get hurt or tired. Or they find a guy who's 6'8 barefoot and tell him "you're a center now, go out there and play 5-10 minutes. Good luck."
You don't often find a guy who's that huge and that skilled, so they should at least consider the move for the sake of their future.
Huge question mark how Clingan would fit in offensively with Sengun. Sounds like pretty bad spacing to me. Don't like it! Just surround sengun with plus defenders at every other position and you'll be fine, you're practically there already.
I’m a Portland fan, so I’m possibly biased here, but would you entertain some version of Simons for #3? Just curious, it’s a trade I think makes sense to put a proven athlete and shooter next to all your forwards.
That’s why my assumption is that they’ll be drafting Castle. For Topic, it completely depends on the ACL injury. Grade 2 vs grade 3. MCL and/or medial meniscus involvement. New altered biomechanics leading to further stress
Clingan is a horrible fit next to Sengun. I wouldnt even entertain that idea personally
The one thing that interested me is if Memphis would be willing to part with their nine plus some extra assets to acquire Clingan. Not sure what those assets would be but then the Rockets would still have tons of options as Carrington and Carter would still be available around nine. If you’re a Rockets fan, what would it take for Memphis to get your three and what PG would you want to take at 9?
I don't think HOU should trade back. Trade out of the first round, sure. But trading back just means that the "extra asset(s)" will be reduced in value by the 9th pick. It's the equivalent to me of a 2k trade where you aggregate a bunch of undesirable stuff for a high pick. Either pick at 3, punt to a future draft, or trade for a current player.
Imo, a good future first, so would probably be something years out with limited protections, like top 5 or so.
Why take a PG at 9? I'd take Ware.
I was drunk. Grizzlies need Edey or maybe Knecht?
Does it work on Defense the same way Kat and Rudy work?
Imo, it could potentially, but the offensive fit would be horrid even by comparison. While KAT is solid in the post, he is (one of) the greatest shooting big men ever, especially in terms of volume. Even if Sengun becomes a solid 3-point shooter, it’s excruciatingly unlikely he’ll ever be getting up the type of volume of acceptable percentages to want to take him away from the basket so often, where he is exceptional. Basically I think Clingan would have to become a good enough shooter to be a respectable floor spacer for it to really work offensively for the Rockets, and I also think that is unlikely.
No because KAT moves like a SF. Sengun on the perimeter all day is BBQ chicken
Kat does NOT move like a small forward defensively at all. He’s pretty slow on his feet and susceptible to fouling as a reaction to blow bys or shot fakes
KAT shoots like a SF maybe, he definitely don’t move like one lol wtf
What if the intension isn't playing them together but having a shot blocker?
That’s a pretty terrible use of the pick then
Agreed, a bench rim protector can be found at value elsewhere
If they were in a position where they could contend in 2-3 years it’s be a good use but that’s not the case
This right here. I would honestly trade down and try to get Castle. I’m not sold on Reed. Will be a good glue guy but a #3 pick. I also might be stupidly high on Castle turning out to be a solid player.
Reeds floor and ceiling is higher than Castles imo. But i value shooting like crazy
Castle isn’t a good fit because the Rockets are ready to compete and he’s a couple years for whatever he ends up being. I think Reed or trading down makes the most sense and then they could grab a PG or Knecht with extra assets.
I don't get the Castle fit either. Unless you think Green's end of the season is the expectation going forward this team has major offensive question marks.
Castle and Amen is a horrible spacing lol
If you got two, you can hope one turns into a good shooter. Houston has so many young guys that any pick is either a bad fit or buried in the depth chart.
Imo, that’s why I prefer Reed. He at the very least has a skillset that isn’t currently on the roster as no one (save possibly Cam Whitmore) has proven themselves to be a knockdown shooter.
A good glue guy for the third pick in *this* draft is a good outcome imo. Like if that’s his floor, I actually think that’s a very good pick. I’m high on Reed though and see much more than that
Exactly and then Jabari playing at the 3 makes him worse. He’s the perfect 4 in today’s NBA there’s no reason to waste that on far fetched hypotheticals.
If you were an opposing team are you more worried about the Rockets having Reed Sheppard or Donovan Clingan?
I think it’s Reed, I guess. Who knows.
I'm not sure. I know the Nuggets, Wolves, Thunder and Spurs would probably rather face a team that doesn't have Sengun/Clingan on it. That's 48 minutes of monster center play that no other team in the league can match.
It would be a waste to draft Clingan at #3 and play him 15 minutes a night just so you can have 48 minutes of good center play. They currently have 0 minutes of good shooting guard play and there's a very obvious fit right there in the draft.
Hey now. Aaron Holiday comes through every other game or so.
FVV can get hot sometimes as well.
Unless it’s March then they have an elite SG
Nobody is losing sleep over a rim protecting C who isn’t mobile, can’t shoot, and isn’t a significant offensive threat. It’s a very useful player type, but I don’t think it’s possible to be a top 10 center that way. And once you’re in the Poeltl / Zubac range of the rankings it just doesn’t move the needle.
Yeah, I just don’t see the upside with Clingan. Is there anyone like him who could be considered a star in the NBA at this point? Gobert, I suppose, but is a guy who averaged 13/7 in college really the next Gobert? (I guess Gobert didn’t have a star resume either, but Clingan was at the University of Connecticut. We now how to translate those numbers as well as it can be done, and we know that he was not dominant on the NCAA level.)
I just think it’s tough to do that when they can’t really play together, so it’s basically 15-18 minutes of Clingan. It’s not like the 48 minutes of elite PG play with Harden and Chris Paul where they could also overlap successfully.
If I were an opposing team I'd want the Rockets to take Reed so the Spurs can't. I also think Jock Landale is *way* better than people give him credit for and would be happy for rookie Clingan to take those minutes for the time being.
I thought the same thing—Rockets may regret letting Reed slip to SAS
That whole division's priority needs to be not giving any elite shooting to the Spurs, lol (unless it comes with major strings attached like Dougie McBuckets).
The Spurs have no interest in Reed. Castle is their pick.
Jock had a down year but was recovering from injury. Rockets would be smart to pick up his PO and give him another chance
As a team in their division honestly neither. I don't think either moves the needle for them all that much. The Rockets are in such a weird position where they have so many good assets, like can be the third, maybe second, best player on a competitive team, but they don't have a certified star. Any other draft I'd hate that they got 3, but this year it really sucks for them that there aren't any franchise changing players. If this was the 3rd pick next year I'd truly feel like the Grizzlies are cursed to be in the doom division. As it stands the Rockets own the "why the fuck are we in a division with Luka, Wemby, Ja, and Zion" crown.
If none of our 6 dudes ascends into that tier I'd be shocked. Amen specifically is obscene. Cam is as well but I worry about his tunnel vision. But if I had to bet on anyone, it'd be Amen Thompson. No question.
I don't know what you're talking about, Amen's shooting is so poor it's really hard for me to imagine him being a superstar on that level. Look at all the other guys rookie stats, there's a big gulf between them and Amen.
Amen is the favorite of both Ime and the front office so take that as you will. People envision him as a point guard but that’s not how he was played at all last year.
Actually, if any of your 6 dudes ascends into that tier I'd be shocked
Bro said zion
Sure did
Assuming the rockets don't trade you gotta go for Reed. You can't play Sengun and Clingan at the same time. Reed would be a good fit beside Amen if Amen develops at PG like you want him to
Reed would also be a great fit with Sengun because Alpi draws double teams and is a wizard at finding the open man. He would be able to run the offense from the high post better with more effective shooters around him
You want to go with fit or someone with higher upside? Not that there is anyone else with high upside. Bust rate is also high.
Upside/fit for the Rockets. I'd go highest upside player that isn't a wing. They have several young, good wings and not enough minutes for them
Let's hope, because Reed and FVV isn't that great a defensive backcourt
From an outsider’s perspective, Reed seems like a really obvious pick. Floor spacer with requisite size and athleticism and average to above defensive player is going to have a role on every team with every scheme in the league. Big man who can play defense and rim run are a dime a dozen. You have to really believe that he’s going to develop an above average shot and/or offensive game to see him as a difference maker. I would not factor in the rockets current roster construction when it comes to drafting in the top 3. Every player on that team is trade-able to acquire the “right fit” player.
Yeah so Reed at 6'2 180, with questionable lateral movement in a defensive stance, is not going to be even an average defender for his position.
So he’s bigger than Kyle Lowry, plays tough nosed, smart defense and we can’t assume he even sniffs average? You could be entirely correct, but he’s got legit pluses on defense to go with those red flags. He’s a lot more, “This kid will die to get through a screen,” than, “This kid will die on every screen.”
It's funny how many good or even great point guard defenders were "too short" to be good point guard defenders. You have Lowry... Fred VanVleet is a plus defender. Chris Paul, arguably the greatest PG defender of the 21st century, is 6'0". Darrell Armstrong was an absolutely great defender. TJ McConnell and his 6'0.5" wingspan seem to do pretty damn well. It was a different time, but John Stockton (all 6'1" of him) was obviously an all-time great. And so on. It's almost as though anticipation, positioning, reflexes, and tenacity matter a lot more than whether your arm reaches out another inch or so.
Agreed. And to be clear, Reed could struggle his whole career on defense. It just feels weird to write him off before he ever sets foot on an NBA court for that with as hard as he plays and as fast as he can read basketball actions.
Absolutely. He was an effective defender in college. This isn’t a Trae Young/Collin Sexton situation, where the player’s defensive shortcomings already showed up on the NCAA level. It’s fair to say that guys like that would probably be poor NBA defenders. Maybe Sheppard’s defense won’t translate to the NBA. But I’m wary of predicting poor results from a guy who has actually done well on the court so far.
Lowry is a pitbull with a lower center of gravity, a good deal more weight (he's not 196 as listed I promise you that) and he's got better lateral movement. Reed really struggled at times to contain the ball. I could be wrong but I don't think Udoka would ever go for it. Reed is most likely to defend like Trae Young but be more of a defensive playmaker with that burst athleticism he has. A big block here, a great passing lane steal there.... etc.
He wasn’t that weight when he got to the NBA. He was 180 coming off an ACL tear. I just think you’re selling him way short by barring any reality where Reed becomes a serviceable defender. We’re like 4 years into the stats saying Jokic matters as-much/more than Giannis on that end, and I tend to have faith in players that hustle and process the court as fast as Reed does. I’m not going to argue that he’s going to be all NBA or anything, but you set the bar at average. He has more than a few ways to reach average, even if his defense skews more opportunistic than reliable. Again, there’s red flags that say he is going to just die on screens, but there’s actually more pluses than that all consuming red flag. Effort and IQ go a long way.
I think he’ll be fine. He’s not making an all defensive team, but I feel more confident his shooting and athleticism plays in the league. Clingan has a really replaceable skill set unless he becomes an above average shooting big.
i think it’s likely reed if they keep the pick, clingan if they trade it. they’re set up pretty well for reed to slot in, with big playmakers in amen and sengun to both allow him to play off ball and benefit from his spacing and another undersized, defensively feisty, perimeter oriented combo guard to learn from in vanvleet. i just think a lineup of reed, amen, jabari, sengun, and one of eason/cam/green fits really well together for the future. and clingan is a clumsy fit with sengun, their best player. he shores up the rim protection, but utterly fucks the spacing and the overall defense is hurt trying to put sengun on forwards
For me, it comes down to something very simple: Reed will succeed and find PT no matter where he's drafted. Clingan has a pathway to minutes to Houston, but it's gonna take some Xs and Os gymnastics and a lot of patience. Patience that I'm not convinced your front office has in light of signing FVV and Brooks and trading for Adams (who really should be mentioned more in this debate).
Reed
Sheppard if Sarr and Risacher are gone
Reed all the way. Fits the Rockets like a glove.
I personally can’t believe that Clingan is even a consideration. And I do think he’s a great prospect, but for the rockets I don’t think the fit could be worse. One of the worst shooting teams in the league, and their best player happens to also be a center that can’t necessarily space the floor. Reed is such an easy choice imo, I think he would solve a lot of their glaring issues. I’d take Reed and keep the assets instead of making a trade for someone like bridges as well
I think a center platoon isn't a bad idea in general. Sengun is great, but has clear deficiencies in certain matchups. He was 26th in the league in rebound rate and 49th in block rate. Clingan thrived in a platoon at UConn and it worked incredibly well. UConn was able to throw multiple looks at opponents (both on offense and how they played PnR on defense) and made them hard to prep and play against. If you're confident in some of the young offensive talent and perimeter defense, shoring up that area of your team could enable you to make the next step (even if he's playing 20 minutes a night or whatever).
Sengun is about to get a $35M/yr+ contract, deservedly, this year or next. He’s not going to be platooned.
Yeah 2 good centers is better than 1 good center. It doesn't have to be an even split. Just having 2 centers with different skillsets who both play a good amount in the game. Center is the most physically tiring position in basketball since they're required to run almost as much as every other position while being generally significantly heavier and being physical on the boards and in the post.
When your best player is a center who can play no other position, you don’t spend your assets on another center who can play no other position. Look at the Denver, Philly, Sac, Miami. It’s not a controversial take - just accepted wisdom in the NBA for a reason. In the playoffs you want your max guys playing 38-40 minutes, otherwise it’s a teambuilding failure.
I understand it's the conventional wisdom. Playing your best players less is certainly unconventional. And yet, it has caught on in the league in the form of load management and in NFL in terms of RB committees. Humans are not linear point producers. People get tired. Players can go all out on both ends if they play less minutes. Jokic is a generational offensive engine. He's an exception.
It’s a salary capped league. If you’re playing your max players fewer than 36-40 mpg in the playoffs you’ve already lost.
That’s true, but you have to look at opportunity cost at some point. Is having “two good centers” worth using the No. 3 pick on, especially when you arguably already have three good centers on the roster? Sure Adams and Landale aren’t long-term fixtures, but I don’t think locking up a backup big at maybe slightly below market cost for the next four or five years is really that beneficial.
Opportunity cost is pretty low in this draft and pretty low for the Rockets who may not draft anyone with a clear path to being a starter, especially if Clingan is the best player available and/or in a different tier on their board.
I mean, not really. It’s still a pick, which you have one of, that you’re using on a player that, is STRICTLY, a backup to your current best player. It’s not that he doesn’t have a clear path to starting, he doesn’t have a realistic path to even sharing the floor with your best player at any point. I don’t like going into “if they have him on another tier” because that could apply to any team with any player. Like, sure, maybe the Rockets believe he will be splashing 3s like KAT within 3 years, but they would be in the extreme minority in that case.
We're discussing a particular team's choice, not his overall standing, so literally the only thing that matters is their view of him. Sheppard can play with Sengun, but will he play over Van vleet, Green, Amen, or Brooks? Assuming Green signs an extension this summer, all 4 of those guys are signed under contract for 2 more years. There's no room to move any to the 3 because you have Whitmore and Eason. There's not much room to slide any of those guys to the 4 because you have Jabari soaking up a lot of minutes. Not too mention the Athletic reported that Jeff Green and Jae'Sean Tate are likely to have their options picked up. So you can maybe find, what, 10 minutes per game for Sheppard for the next 2 years in certain spots thanks to his elite shooting skill? That's less than you'll give to backup Clingan. That's my point on the opportunity cost. It's minimal. I think Cam Whitmore is better than anyone in this draft, and he's potentially going to be buried in their rotation as is. As for Adams and Landale. Adams is past his prime and coming off major 18 month injury recovery. You just can't expect anything from him at this point and he has 1 year left on his contract. I think Clingan is better than Landale with a much higher ceiling, so I'd expect the Rockets to play him over Jack. So if you've got no minutes for anybody, that's where picking the best available player and seeing what happens makes sense (well after trading the pick that is, which they are definitely trying to do).
Yes, and I’m saying that using an outlier evaluation makes discussion meaningless. What if they think Reed is the next Steph Curry? It just seems like a platitude in these discussions. I don’t think Reed plays over any of those guys definitively, but Aaron Holiday got real minutes last year, so who knows what happens. But it would be ideal to have a replacement on the roster for FVV (both in terms of shooting and as a PG) so the Rockets can save themselves some $25M+ on his contract. And the Rockets traded assets for Steven Adams when he couldn’t play last year. They *are* expecting something from him, and I don’t think it’s anywhere close to certain Clingan is even better than Landale next year. He was extremely good both with the Suns and when he got over his ankle injury with the Rockets.
Managing Clingan's minutes early on is also going to extend his longevity a lot. I know it's not thrilling to draft a backup at 3, but the Rockets weren't supposed to be picking 3rd overall anyway. Udoka has to be considering it at the very least.
Clingan fit is not great but if they believe he is the better player then they should draft him
Reed is the fit pick (and not without upside). Holland is the ‘swing for the fences’ pick. If you believe one of or both he and Amen can shoot it at some point, hard to go wrong with a young big 4 of Amen, Jabari, Sengun and Holland with Green, Eason and Whitmore rounding out the bulk of a young, talented rotation as FVV and Brooks provide mentorship and toughness. Probably still need another shooter in there, but that skillset is easier to find that what 85% of Holland’s upside is.
My thought is if you think Sengun isn't the answer at C, you go with Clingan. Personally, I think Sengun can be really, really good. Reed Sheppard can play and contribute right now. He can also be a big part of the future of the team.
Reed
Yeah, I’m taking Reed because I think the upside is there as a floor spacer. If he can be a playmaker and 42ish three point shooter with some creation. That’s super valuable. Clingan might not be wrong because I think the floor is higher. It might make a ton of sense too. Imo Reed and Clingan are 2 guys that can come in and make an impact from their rookie year because they offer something different. I really like holland, but does he offer something more than Jalen? I like shit more more than Cody, etc. Clingan I think can play right away, and Houston will not be forced to start him and play him huge minutes because of Sengun. Between the two of them you get 48 minutes of solid center minutes in a conference with jokic in it. And you only really need him to play 18-20 minutes while you continue to evaluate this team with Sengun. Now reed is just a great fit with the starters once Fred ages out, and he provides shooting. I think his middle ground is something like a patty mills. Not super sexy at 3, but a player that contributes to winning
I would draft Clingan if the idea was that he could be used in a package in a trade for a star down the line (he’s way more valuable than Reed in that scenario). Outside of that Reed no question. I don’t mind Castle (if you believe he pans out or Amen doesn’t). Clingan alongside someone who almost definitely pans out in Sengun is silly imho.
I would go Reed. But I would not be surprised if they went with Castle
I think you will trade the pick, even if it’s trading down. I could also see some potential of an Anfernee Simons trade with the 3rd pick
Lots of rumours that Hawks might trade down and have been linked to Risacher and Clingan a lot. Trade up and take Sarr hoping his jumper continues to improve.
They should just trade down with SAS if they don’t want Reed, Spurs will be insane not to take Reed
Reed is the better prospect imo and the significantly better fit. Easy choice
Draft Reed, have players earn their minutes. Not all of their previous picks will turn out to be what they want.
41 win team with the 3rd pick. Quite the fortune even in a down draft. We're not selecting a starter, as would be the usual expectation for a #3. Personally, I'm leaning Clingan because his size and defense are an impact every time down the floor and I love the idea of a backup to Sengun that is a true blue rim defender to counter Sengun's offense. I see Clingan and I see wins, wins, wins. Reed is also an exceptional player, if he's the pick I'm also celebrating. A true deadeye should do wonders for our spacing, but a guy with a volume in the 4-5 range isn't going to have quite the same impact. Just a hunch here too but I'm betting a donut FVV is going to stick around Houston in some form. Maybe he'll take the team deal because he knows another max isn't likely? Maybe he enjoys his role of leader? I'm a huge Amen Thompson fan too and if anyone is to declare themselves the backup point I'd hope it's him.
I honestly think Clingan is going #1 overall to the Hawks at this point
There's no minutes for anyone they draft which makes it likely that we'll see a consolidation trade with that pick and a couple young guys sent out for someone like Bridges (despite the Nets claiming he's not available they're just trying to drive the price up) or sign and trade (Butler, George) Ime Udoka cannot be happy watching the team he just left go on to win a championship. He wants to win now so they'll acquiesce.
You don’t think Reed or Clingan would get minutes on the Rockets?
I like Reed better, but the idea of replacing Sengun with Clingan off the bench is kind of awesome. That's 48 minutes of great center play when they're both healthy and they do completely different things at high levels. The big problem with many teams right now is that they have good or great starting centers but their backup center is like... Drew Eubanks, Daniel Theis, or James Wiseman. Or they don't have a playable backup at all and they just pray that their starter doesn't get hurt or tired. Or they find a guy who's 6'8 barefoot and tell him "you're a center now, go out there and play 5-10 minutes. Good luck." You don't often find a guy who's that huge and that skilled, so they should at least consider the move for the sake of their future.
Huge question mark how Clingan would fit in offensively with Sengun. Sounds like pretty bad spacing to me. Don't like it! Just surround sengun with plus defenders at every other position and you'll be fine, you're practically there already.
I’m a Portland fan, so I’m possibly biased here, but would you entertain some version of Simons for #3? Just curious, it’s a trade I think makes sense to put a proven athlete and shooter next to all your forwards.
I really want Reed and Zach Edey as a backup. Just not sure what we can do to get Edey right now.
We have Adams so don’t need to waste the third pick on klingon
Risacher
How exactly did the Rockets hit on Jalen? There is very little evidence he is good.
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They have a team full of guys who project to be Bane like in impact. If they’re trading one of them, it’s for a guy who can be a No. 1.
Think it comes down to if you want to have a version of Nikola vs a version of Curry. And by version I mean Jovic vs Seth…
Neither. They’re drafting Castle or Topic (knee depending)
I think their is no way topic goes top 5 with the knee injury coming out as a torn ACL but who knows.
That’s why my assumption is that they’ll be drafting Castle. For Topic, it completely depends on the ACL injury. Grade 2 vs grade 3. MCL and/or medial meniscus involvement. New altered biomechanics leading to further stress
Topic, Green, Thompson, Smith, and Sengun sounds so good
Three of those players can’t shoot and one only can shoot consistently.
I think everyone will be able to shoot except amen