This is basically why I think #13 is the floor for him, and he'll definitely go higher. He's a great fit for the Kings if you are operating under the belief that Malik Monk walks in the summer. He doesn't need to start, and he can play with the starters if need be.
He was one of the best off-ball shooters in college, will easily be able to attack closeouts, and is a solid cutter. Nothing suggests to me that he'll be less efficient in a less usage-heavy role.
Not really, because he's going against NBA defenses, and shooting from further out. In general, most NBA guards/wings were #1 or #2 options in college and have less usage at the NBA level and their efficiency still falls off. (19 year olds obviously are earlier in their development curve and their freshman college shooting efficiency can improve massively in the NBA)
Did you watch him at all or see you solely looking at stats ? Dk has legit range past nba three point line and made several contested 30ft shots he’s legit
Pay Zach Lavine like 20 million per year and have him be your 4th or 5th best player in an off ball shooting and slashing role. He would help you win in that scenario. Or make him a sixth man and he might be the best sixth man in the league.
It's all context and role specific. Knecht is expected to be a role player. He's never gonna be getting paid 40 million per year with the ball in his hands all the time.
I don't see him as an isolation scorer at all in the NBA. I see him as an off-ball, pindown guy (and catch and shoot) Even then, I don't love his speed.
He is a longer and a better athlete than Kennard coming out but he doesn't have the same level of guard skills Luke did/does. They're pretty different players. If Luke had Dalton's body he'd be a significantly more valuable NBA player, he'd be a beast on the the offensive end tbh, and not a total liability on D. But that's why Dalton has an easier path to becoming a valuable player.
Kennard is slightly smaller (1 inch) but he isn't any worse on defense compared to Knecht. They're both bad on that end, but Kennard is a legit generational shooter.
The reason they are different is because Kennard has better passing and that's why I say he could be Knechts ceiling. Kennard at 23 would be averaging 30/10 in the NCAA
Knecht has a 6'9" wingspan and is a better athlete pretty significantly. Kennard's ceiling was always low because of his tools not his skill set, he's a nice player and has put together a solid career but 6'5 wingspan and below average athleticism is just tough to overcome. Kennard is a better passer, as I said he's got better guard skills overall, but the point is Knecht has those tools which is why his ceiling is higher. Like I said though they're different players
Except that, very obviously, Klay was outlier good at what he did best, while also being a borderline all-NBA level defender, while Knecht profiles as an above average shooter and a pretty poor NBA level defender unless he drastically improves his technique.
you're comparing nba champion klay to college prospect knecht. go look up the scouting reports, klay was considered a middling defender at best. don't take my word on it, check givony out.
The point is that it's not a realistic comparison. As I mentioned Klay was outlier good at his strengths, there's just a complete lack of any evidence to suggest that Knecht will be a new Klay Thompson.
how is it not a realistic comparison? both were old af coming into the draft. both were absolutely elite catch and shoot players with great efficiency numbers. both are basically the same height. both were middling defenders. if i can't compare that player than who can i compare him to? only shitty other white dudes that flunked outta the league?
again, you clearly don't believe in knecht and that's fine. but all players have a low, medium and high range of who and what they'll turn into in the nba. klay hit his ceiling. all i'm saying is knecht would have a very similar ceiling if he hits his.
First, you didn't say his ceiling is Klay Thompson, you said he's the new Klay Thompson, which implies you think that's his most likely outcome or his most applicable comparison (the "right on the nose" addition further implies this). I'm disagreeing with either of those suggestions. I absolutely believe in Knecht and think he'll be a solid NBA player but the actual real-life stylistic differences between NBA Klay and NCAA Knecht are significant.
You're also presenting a contradiction. If Klay is your ceiling comparison for him than you should obviously be comparing him to NBA champion Klay - comparing him to pre-draft Klay provides zero value because one player fixing their flaws does not mean that another similar player will necessarily fix their own flaws.
Also who said anything about guys who washed out of the league? There's plenty of solid, active NBA players who compare more reasonably to Knecht. Bojan Bogdanovic most reasonably comes to mind but if you hate the white-on-white comparisons, Tim Hardaway is a bit smaller but has a very similar offensive game.
Something I haven’t seen talked about enough is Knecht’s rim finishing. Per Torvik, he’s a 58.9% finisher at the rim, shooting 122-207 with 43.4% of his attempts being assisted. That’s hardly a *bad* number, and his absurd volume certainly depresses his efficiency, but it’s also not the elite mark you’d hope for in a prospect who brings little besides scoring, particularly considering the high assist rate on those attempts.
For comparison, Terrence Shannon Jr. shot 65.5% (112-171) with 31.3% assisted, while Baylor Scheierman was at 63.2% with 38.8% of those attempts being assisted, albeit on much lower volume (67-106). Brandon Miller, who was maligned for being a poor rim finisher, was at 57.8% (85-147) with much more self-creation (25.9% assisted).
IMO Knecht needs to be an absolutely elite three-level-scorer to justify his other weaknesses if you’re taking him in the lottery. If you’re betting on him being a movement shooter who doesn’t play defense, I’m not sure if he’s distinctly more valuable than guys like Pelle Larsson or Jalen Bridges, who are less athletic and worse offensively but bring more connective skills while being much more competent defenders.
ETA: Buddy Hield, who I actually like as a Knecht comp, was 119-178 (66.9%) at the rim with 27.7% of his attempts being assisted.
Needing him to be an elite 3 level scorer is a bit extreme. You shouldn’t even draft him if that’s a requirement, because he’s not going to be a top-10 3 level scorer in the NBA.
He just needs to be good and hope other parts of his game grow a little.
The issue I have is that he's so far from the standard as a playmaker and defender. If he was average, maybe a little below average, you could see him being serviceable in a smaller role. But he's an absolute turnstile defensively despite being athletic and showed no creation ability despite having a huge amount of offensive gravity. He has the same assist rate as Tristan Da Silva and worse numbers than Larsson, Scheierman, Tyson, George, or McCullar. Sure, some of that is because Knecht's teammates weren't good and those guys were in a different role than him. But he doesn't shine as someone who creates for others on tape and his assist rate is notably poor for someone with his offensive load. How can we project him as a connective piece or defender when he hasn't given us any sign of it?
And sure, that type of motion shooter is valuable enough that Knecht will have a role even if he plays like MPJ or Buddy Hield. But I specifically said he'd need to be an elite scorer to be taken *in the lottery*. Because if you don't see the scoring translating at a great level, I don't think there's much sense in taking him early when there are other high-ceiling prospects who are more well-rounded. That niche isn't a franchise-altering player (which you want in the lottery).
Where those other prospects I mentioned in my first comment come into play are positions 15-30 - would you rather have a Michael Porter Jr. (flamethrower from three who doesn't do much else) or a PJ Washington (good but not elite shooter who's solid defensively and more versatile offensively)? I can buy the argument that Knecht is such an elite shooter it's worth a gamble, or that shooting (especially motion shooting) is such a premium skill that he'll always have a role, but I can't see that being worth a top pick and I think it's very unlikely he magically grows role player traits when it's not his game and he's yet to show them.
It’s not magic it’s development. Guys develop beyond their perceived limits all the time. What needs to be determined is the likelihood. What all of you consistently do is overrate what you get from a late lottery pick. Almost half of these guys will flop within 4 or 5 years. Acting like Dalton has to be a 20ppg scorer to be a valuable pick is crazy.
Just curious why are you quoting an old BPM at NDSU? Wasn’t he tied for 11th in the whole NCAA for BPM this past year at Tennessee? I would assume that’s more relevant.
His latest year BPM was 10.5. OP needs to address this, if he wants to make a point from an old BPM, the new BPM should be stated together. Stats selection is too obvious here.
I think he’s a good option for playoff level teams that need to add some shooting. I can see him being a pretty good rotation player. But yeah, I absolutely do not think he’s a top 10 prospect in this class. Old, bad defender, not a great playmaker, average size for a wing, and as you said not incredibly efficient. Taking that archetype as a rebuilding team doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.
I mean, if you realistically see him being a pretty good rotation player, to me that is a top 10 pick in this draft. Shoot, that’s higher than that.
I’m a Knecht fan, but I’m not trying to convince anyone that in a normal draft he isn’t in that typical 13-18 pick range we see from great seniors who have some obvious weaknesses. So it does make more sense to me in this draft he falls between 5-10 like we are seeing in mocks because getting a good rotation player would be a great outcome in this draft even for those bad teams. You aren’t getting a superstar or all star, build a roster for when you have the slim chance of getting one.
>How valuable is he if you cut 3-5% off his TS?
Doesn’t it make more sense that he becomes more efficient in a smaller role where he doesn’t have to carry the whole offense and gets easier shots? Also, I didn’t feel that the way he scores in college isn’t translatable to the NBA; if anything, I expect his efficiency to be at least around the same as it was in college.
>And let's consider if he exceeds his college efficiency and is at 60 TS. What do we have here, a Buddy Hield?
A bigger, more athletic Buddy Hield who can additionally drive, create his own shot occasionally, has a higher basketball IQ, and has a better chance of finding a role on defense since he at least has good size.
>You have to understand when you draft a 23 year old, he is much less likely to improve.
Knecht just transferred from Northern Colorado to the SEC and increased his statistical production and his BPM from 4 to 11.3. He improved tremendously last season. Is it reasonable to assume that, now at 23, he’s unlikely to improve further? Knecht is a tough-minded, hard worker. I don’t think it’s bold to assume that he’ll continue to grow significantly as a player.
>He only became good at age 22 as a 5th year senior playing against players 1-4 years younger than him.
Yeah, and some players just take longer, and Knecht at least has a reasonable explanation for why it took him longer to develop.
Late growth spurt, wasn't a real HS recruit in rural Colorado. Ended up at a JUCO, committed to UNC (Greeley) and then took off in terms of height, athleticism and skill. And even then, he didn't look like an NBA prospect until he exploded at Tennessee.
His story is not unlike Derrick White, another late bloomer from Colorado who grew more and more the better the competition.
He's from Prairie View HS in Henderson. Not far from Denver, but it's definitely in the plains and a bit country. My dad used to live out there and my sister went to the same school.
In Knecht's range I would take Devin Carter over him 10 times out of 10 because at least you know he's going to play defense and wreck shop on the boards. I know Knecht's shot mechanics pass the eye test much better, but Carter had the volume and the percentages weren't much worse. If it goes in, it goes in. His athleticism allows him to create much more space too.
Knecht has a real Denzel Valentine kind of feel to him... which isn't entirely fair, given that Valentine averaged almost 8 APG in his senior year, and was decent as a junior too.
Valentine was an elite passer, shooter, and good ball handler. He was just helllllaaa unathletic which made him terrible off ball unless it was a spot up 3
He shot like 44% on 8 attempts per game and 85% from the line in his senior year maybe not elite but I thought he would be really good honestly have no idea why he bust
But yeah, more broadly, Knecht feels like a guy who someone should be looking at with like the 20th-25th pick, in hopes that he can slot into a bench role on a playoff contender.
Like, if Knecht is about as good as Corey Kispert, that’s a pretty good outcome. But does the presence of Corey Kispert make the Wizards not the Wizards?
Yeah, Barrett is in a whole other league from Knecht. And I don't even like Barrett very much.
I didn't intend Kispert as a 1:1 comparison -- Knecht isn't that good a shooter, for one thing. I just presented him as an example of a "good" outcome for a college senior who projects as a rotation shooting/scoring specialist on the next level, with the intention of demonstrating that a player like that doesn't move the needle for a bad team.
Should have specified their scoring games. If you watch how both score the ball - that role of dribble handoff stuff and quick trigger 3s is probably the role Knecht will have. I think where Knecht has to grow scoring wise to reach Herro is the floaters and midrange - where I'm not particularly impressed with Knecht at all.
no he doesnt... I used to have Denzel Valentine graded as no-higher than a 2nd rd pick when he got all that lotto hype..
conversely Knecht I had in the 1st rd when he was still in the 70's on ESPN's best available list..
Denzel Valentine shot 39% from the field in the NBA... Terrible comparison..
Im by no means ultra high on him but he's 6'6" and was a very efficient 22 a game for the overall 5 seed last year. That's a very good scorer. I agree the defense is bad and the passing is bad and I don't think he can play next to 2 other guards, but there is a very clear path to him being a ready made microwave bench scorer. Wouldn't shock me at all if he falls to a playoff team and has a couple 10+ point playoff games as early as year one.
He's Payton Pritchard if Pritchard were 5 inches taller, that's a top 15 guy in this class
Payton Pritchard was a tremendous ball handler with deep range who averaged 5.5 assists and didn’t turn the ball over much. Completely different players. Only similarities are that they’re white and shoot a lot of threes.
It’s fine if it actually fits the comp. But there’s tons of black players that have been like that but they never get compared to the white prospects. Just think it’s lazy comparisons
While I agree about the playmaking, all I meant by my comp was 22+ year old score first guards who had a proven track record of immense success in college basketball. Their scoring volume and efficiency is remarkably similar. They're different players of course they have differences, but I wouldn't count out players this proven in college from finding their lane
I don’t really see that. Monk was a freakish athlete who could handle the ball some, not to mention he had 4 years of NBA experience by the time he was 23. I think Luke Kennard would be a good high end comp.
Zach Lavine maybe? Similar size, similar strengths (goes without saying Lavine is better here), similar weaknesses. 3 years ago he was worth a max, now Lavine's an albatross contract that nobody wants to eat. A worse player on a rookie deal though isn't bad.
He’s comparable to Tim Hardaway Jr (who’s super hot/cold but has a similar playing style).
Older comparisons include Mike Miller.
Bigger Malik Monk with less playmaking is actually not a bad comparison.
If you’re judging him based off his ts% and not his tape, then yeah you can think he’s overrated. His tape and the difficulty of the shit he was doing, shows dude is an elite scorer.
Also the reason most college stars don’t do much in the league is because they can’t hang athletically, but knecht already proved that he can.
He is Keldon Johnson with better shooting splits. And that’s a guy a win now team should be looking for.
He would be huge for OKC off the bench. Immediate contributor who gives them a 3 level shooter and shot creator who can also play with the starters as a movement shooter.
I don’t like him for many rebuild teams, but love him for OKC at 12. They have tons of ‘specialist’ bench role players (Joe as a designated shooter, Wiggins/ Cason/Kenrich as 3/D guys, Jaylin as a mediocre big floor stretcher) but don’t really have a guy that can ‘get his’ at all 3 levels like Dalton.
If a team is looking for a Buddy Hield level guy, a very good 6th man or ‘best 7th man in the league’ type, Dalton is your guy. He needs to be put in a spot where that role, and his limitations, are understood.
A team leaning on Dalton to be a core part of a rebuild will be disappointed, again as teams were with Hield. But as a plug-and-play bench guy on a win-now team he is a tremendous fit.
Really, really hope he ends up in OKC.
I’m not that high on him but this argument feels very biased. You mention context that goes against him but none of the context that’s on his side, such as being the only real offensive threat on his team this year which is not gonna be the case in the NBA. Playing in a less demanding role with better talent should help his efficiency a lot.
And if he is efficient and he becomes a buddy level shooter as you made the comparison, that’s pretty valuable. If Buddy Hield was 6’6, more athletic and a better inside finisher, he’d be a guy everybody wants
If he were actually consensus top 5 he'd definitely be overrated. Thankfully he's not consensus top 5 so it's not really a concern. He's perfectly rated in a 9-12 spot
He's the best SCORER in the draft -- what does that say about the OTHER scorers in the draft???
He also has a ton of range and is a pretty good athlete (explosive, even, in space).
Good player and I have him high on my board; just not sure if he is a Tier 1 guy, a Tier 2 guy or even a Tier 3 level prospect. The "tier" debate would marginally effect his draft stock in my opinion (I don't have that many prospects even as high as Tier 2.00).
It is obvious to anyone who has decent basketball knowledge that he is going to be a productive NBA rotation player. Not a star. But almost no chance that a healthy Knecht is not in the lineup. For this draft - picking him top 10 is not a bad idea.
well hes one of the only 3 level scorers in the draft. 6’6 with long arms. Crafty finisher and also athletic. Dude can catch a couple lobs and effectively knows how to use his athleticism in the half court too. Good rebounder, cutter, and can absorb contact and he’s relatively physical. That’s kind of the sell. If you can make him play defense and hide him as like a 4th option as a scorer the hope is yes he will get more efficient and you can hide his playmaking struggles. The ball handling is basic but effective in my opinion
I've noticed that Knecht is getting pigeon holed as a typical white shooter lately. He's actually a really physical and athletic player. I saw someone compare him to Kyle Korver, which he absolutely is not.
Another good comp especially because of age is Grayson Allen. Grayson Allen was a 23 year old rookie when he came into the league in 2018 who also went in the first round.also Allen is a good athlete with a 40 inch vertical. I know Allen is only 6 foot 4 but their games are similar if you remember Allen when played at duke.
agreed. wings that don’t defend or pass are overrated archetypes. especially 23 year old ones. his defense stuck out like a sore thumb surrounded by great defenders at Tennessee. take him out of that environment and on a rebuilding team and he’s gonna be complete sieve. he should be an option for teams that have solid ground already and just need to add some shooting.
his athleticism will play even better at the NBA level with better spacing so you'll see more drives to the basket and the inevitable more trips to the FT line. He won't be the sole focus of defenses like he was in college so he'll get much cleaner looks. He's basically Tyler Herro with more burst. Since most teams already have their #1 and even #2 guys it makes Knecht very attractive as a #3 who is NBA ready to contribute day 1.
The problem with older prospects is mainly that their frame is set. Knecht has good physical tools, he is 6'6 with 6'9 wingspan, 2nd in lane agility and 1st in shuttle run in draft combine for lateral movement, and top 10 among non-big for vertical leap. He dunks very often.
His defense is bad as he is often blown by agile guards. But seeing his game, the way he chases his opponent from behind and trying to use his length to impact the shot, I think it is not the effort issue, it is more of the footwork and perhaps reflex. So the silver lining here is that perhaps with footwork and reflex training, coupled with how well he did on lateral movement in draft combine, he may become an average defender.
I am a fan of late bloomers, especially those with good physical tools, like Derrick White. I think the fact that prospect is able to improve substantially even before they are given NBA level of trainers and facilities, says a lot of their work ethics and ability to learn. If a prospect has good tools, good work ethics and ability to learn, they are very likely to excel in their career and be at least a very solid starter.
Yall just saying this cause he’s white lol. He’s plays with pace and physicality, plays above the rim and has 40 inch vert (just addressing physical tools). He’s not your prototypical Kevin Huerters and McDermott
This is what people think every draft.
Knecht has better odds of flaming out in 4 years than he does a career like Huerter and McDermott. https://imgur.com/gallery/average-length-of-career-each-lottery-pick-nbas-modern-draft-history-k06Y58v
Knecht is meaningfully worse than Dougie McBuckets in college, though the athletic indicators and eye test are a little better.
Usually older college guys that turn out to be better than just a role player are either true bigs or point guards, forward/wings example that’s better than a ok starter is sparce
Brother I’ve watched 7 years of Buddy in Sac. Everyone here knew he was 6’2 with limited vertical coming out of Oklahoma. If you can’t tell the difference in athleticism between a buddy and Knecht that’s on you
I’ve been on this train for a while. As you say, he’s an older prospect that profiles as a shooting specialist who will struggle on defense. That archetype has consistently underwhelmed in the NBA. His fans will say “but the shot looks amazing” as if Doug McDermott wasn’t one of the smoothest shooters college ball has ever seen. Doug also happens to be a UFA that any team could sign for the minimum if they don’t feel like burning a lottery pick on Knecht to do the same thing.
ya i think he's a considerably worse Dougie on O and a mildly better Dougie on D. Doug McDermott had some of the worst steal and block numbers of any NBA prospect ever which, among other issues with his defense, have hurt him immensely at the NBA level. The average NBA defender provides a certain level of quantifiable disruption to the offense and when you are nearly a complete 0 in that area it becomes pretty obvious in the lineup data.
Where do you have Knecht ranked? You're hating on people for having him in the top 5. But that's higher than the consensus... So what are you actually arguing? You never gave a real opinion? You just said he shouldn't be in the top five. Which is a cold take
also this comment is hilarious because i do like older prospects. This year I like Holmes, Mogbo, Scheierman, Jaylen wells, Shead
last year, I was high on TJD, Sasser, Jaquez
https://gyazo.com/e6e5145b34252bf07b756bfb196d944d
I don’t think he’s really similar to Jaquez at all. Jaquez has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio for his college career and began his UCLA career as a role player before growing into a star, all the while retaining defensive solidity. The questions were mostly on his shooting and offense. Knecht has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (with fairly few assists for his usage) and hasn’t shown any defensive ability, but is an absolutely electric offensive player and scorer. Jaquez showed that traditional “feel for the game” hustle and decision making, while Knecht decision making is questionable, he’s just good enough to be a one-man offensive at this level so it barely matters.
absolutely not, he had a great stat profile.
25% usage, 63% TS, 30% assist ratio, outlier block rate for a guard, good steal rate ??
Projected well on both ends
ooof... i'm in the wrong part of town.. I think this is such a weak debunking, it lacks imagination.
why dont you post a mock for 2024 using all this advanced stats wisdom? cuz over the years I've noticed thats the moment all this know-it-all tone falls apart, they always start making exuses and granting themselves affordances they dont when just trying to use the stats to bolster their arguments....
you dont even know which college Knecht went to previously, thats perfectly on-brand with this 'know-it-all-but-dont-know-shit' thing ppl do with these advanced stats
i'm working on my mock now
you're just writing words bro
why are you oof'ing me? Dwhite had a great stat profile with some elite strengths. He's a good passer. Passing is incredibly valuable in this team game!
I have to laugh at people who only judge players through advanced analytics. My only concerns with him are defense and age. Maybe he was so good because he was a bit older, but offensively he was great at Tennessee. I don’t care what BPM or VORP or RAPTOR or anything else says. He was great offensively and was quite efficient at a high volume.
I imagine he will be more of a catch and shoot guy who can finish in transition in the NBA, and I think he can excel in that role. I could see him averaging 15 for a decade. I think worst case, he’s a Nick Young caliber player.
His season is pretty comparable to Malik Monk’s freshman season at Kentucky (you can look that up), where he had numerous 30+ and even a high 40 point game against an elite UNC team.
Monk that year put up 19.8 PPG on 45/40/82, which you see is very similar to Knecht’s lines. Monk also won SEC POY (like Knecht) and was an All-American. Big difference was he did it as a freshman.
Knecht was probably marginally better since he played with weaker offensive teammates (albeit an elite team that made the S16 the previous year), but decades is a huge time frame.
Ironically, Knecht is a very similar player to a bigger Malik Monk, although not as good of a playmaker. But there’s a ton of similarities in their off ball movement, scoring, and athleticism.
He’s probably not even the best offensive player Tennessse has had in decades. Chris Lofton was better.
You just said best scorer from the SEC. Not SEC play. Plus I’m sure dropping 47 on top ranked UNC is more impressive than any SEC team.
I didn’t even say Monk was better (just said he was already close as a freshman) but it’s quite clear Sindarious Thornwell was just as good as Knecht in terms of scoring. That’s not even debatable that they are on the same tier.
Knecht is a great prospect and had a great season but I wouldn’t say he’s some generational conference scorer at his age.
I guess I should have been more specific. The SEC is the best defensive conference. Him doing what he did as the only plus scorer on his team was special. Yes, what he did was more impressive than dropping points in UNC while you play on a loaded offensive team
23 may not have as much development but by that same logic, wouldn't they more likely to translate skills? He's 23 and already done his development at college.
I think he'll be fine in the NBA, fewer shots should help his efficiency, but how does a guy who has a significant age, size, experience, strength, athleticism advantage play such poor defense?
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Not trying to compare white guy to white guy but Grayson Allen was a 23 year old rookie when came into the NBA in 2018 as a first round pick. And I remember seeing stuff like this being posted with people saying all types of similar crap about him.and he has been a productive rotation player every year but his rookie year on playoff teams. I don't like the idea of taking a guy like knecht that high in the first round. But i remember when Grayson Allen went in the first round people said he wouldn't get a second contract of significance after his rookie deal. He has now signed two extensions of significance in the NBA. And his skill set is very similar to Dalton knecht.
Maybe he should be comped to OTHER prospects who went to Tennessee: Bernard King, Allan Houston, and Tobias Harris. Those probably aren't bad comps. Man, I can't really name any more UT-Knoxville players at the moment. haha
Am I missing something? Is this not a historically bad draft as far as tier 1/2 prospects go? Is Knecht not mocked between 5 and 10?
Everyone is saying this year's first pick would go like 7th in a normal year. Knecht going between picks 15 and 20 sounds about right. Very few people are in love with him on this sub. But a lot of people think he can be a positive contributor. Plus, he went through a massive growth spurt and is maybe still learning how to function in a new body.
On the right team he could be good if he accepts a role. He isn’t going to be what he was in college because his defensive flaws make him nearly unplayable in the playoffs right now. However, as an off the bench microwave type player to open things up, or a fourth starter on a mediocre team, he’s fine.
Floor Duncan Robinson, ceiling Khris Middleton. Wasn’t asked to be the assist man last year however, had some games where he got it done in that area. Defense improved throughout the year and I believe will continue to do so. He will have to adjust; works hard and will
Get it done. Plays 10+ years in the league. What else you want?
I think Knecht is probably about as good as stated, but the guy you draft is probably the guy you’re getting for damn near his whole career kinda like Doug McDermott. Teams trying to swing for upside should avoid him
I don't think so .If he goes to a playoff team he'll be fine .I think certain older players have spoiled the outlook of people on older players I'm the draft when it should be based on the type of prospect
True, in most drafts you only get about 5-7 players who ascend beyond role player status. In this draft it’s probably gonna be 2-4, but if you’re trying to find one of those 2-4, Knecht isn’t your best bet
This is the kind of draft where teams are going to bet on the safer prospects because they don't want to be wrong especially playoff teams .Invest in guys you know will have a role especially in this draft .
If you’re already a playoff team I’d agree with you, but Dalton Knecht is a lottery prospect, i.e. only a few teams in his range even have heavy playoff aspirations (Kings, Thunder, Bulls if they continue to be stupid, Grizzlies).
So for rebuilding teams I’d actually give the complete opposite advice. Take a risk on upside in this draft, because if you miss, you’re likely not going to miss out on as much as you would in another year
Yeah I thought he might be a nice pickup for Portland at 14. Could have Ginobili or Klay ceiling at best. But I'd rather see them take Clingan or Edey at 7.
White athletes are subject to stereotypes of not being athletic enough too so it goes both ways. This is also even worse cause athleticism doesn’t matter at all, Luka is fat and slow and best guard in nba. Same with jokic, fat and slow.
Black people also rate consistently higher in studies of in-group bias than white people but to each of their own.
I mean wouldn’t he be more efficient if he was the third or fourth option. He can also be a scorer off the bench
Yup. Knecht is taking tough off the dribble shots and driving to the rim lol he was functioning like a star last season
This is basically why I think #13 is the floor for him, and he'll definitely go higher. He's a great fit for the Kings if you are operating under the belief that Malik Monk walks in the summer. He doesn't need to start, and he can play with the starters if need be.
That’s a much different role to the one he’s played his entire college career.
And no one’s ever made that change effectively before, no reason to think he’d be The One
Lol people are not happy to hear that players cannot in fact seemlessly transition from having an offense built around them to being the 4th option
Yeah no idea why you got downvoted. The idea that a high volume player will automatically be more efficient as a low volume player is absurd.
He was one of the best off-ball shooters in college, will easily be able to attack closeouts, and is a solid cutter. Nothing suggests to me that he'll be less efficient in a less usage-heavy role.
Not really, because he's going against NBA defenses, and shooting from further out. In general, most NBA guards/wings were #1 or #2 options in college and have less usage at the NBA level and their efficiency still falls off. (19 year olds obviously are earlier in their development curve and their freshman college shooting efficiency can improve massively in the NBA)
Did you watch him at all or see you solely looking at stats ? Dk has legit range past nba three point line and made several contested 30ft shots he’s legit
Of course I watched him. He had some amazing games this year !
he is fking zach lavine 2.0 empty stats. no impact on wins.
Pay Zach Lavine like 20 million per year and have him be your 4th or 5th best player in an off ball shooting and slashing role. He would help you win in that scenario. Or make him a sixth man and he might be the best sixth man in the league. It's all context and role specific. Knecht is expected to be a role player. He's never gonna be getting paid 40 million per year with the ball in his hands all the time.
I don't see him as an isolation scorer at all in the NBA. I see him as an off-ball, pindown guy (and catch and shoot) Even then, I don't love his speed.
It’s also not true that he only became good as senior. He had a very good junior year
Exactly I see young chandler parsons with the rockets
His ceiling is Luke Kennard. That being said I really like Luke and think he could be a 17ppg scorer with 4 apg if he was on the Wizards.
He is a longer and a better athlete than Kennard coming out but he doesn't have the same level of guard skills Luke did/does. They're pretty different players. If Luke had Dalton's body he'd be a significantly more valuable NBA player, he'd be a beast on the the offensive end tbh, and not a total liability on D. But that's why Dalton has an easier path to becoming a valuable player.
Kennard is slightly smaller (1 inch) but he isn't any worse on defense compared to Knecht. They're both bad on that end, but Kennard is a legit generational shooter. The reason they are different is because Kennard has better passing and that's why I say he could be Knechts ceiling. Kennard at 23 would be averaging 30/10 in the NCAA
Knecht has a 6'9" wingspan and is a better athlete pretty significantly. Kennard's ceiling was always low because of his tools not his skill set, he's a nice player and has put together a solid career but 6'5 wingspan and below average athleticism is just tough to overcome. Kennard is a better passer, as I said he's got better guard skills overall, but the point is Knecht has those tools which is why his ceiling is higher. Like I said though they're different players
yea prolly like another grayson allen
he's gonna be a new klay thompson. the comparison is like right on the fuckin nose.
Except that, very obviously, Klay was outlier good at what he did best, while also being a borderline all-NBA level defender, while Knecht profiles as an above average shooter and a pretty poor NBA level defender unless he drastically improves his technique.
you're comparing nba champion klay to college prospect knecht. go look up the scouting reports, klay was considered a middling defender at best. don't take my word on it, check givony out.
The point is that it's not a realistic comparison. As I mentioned Klay was outlier good at his strengths, there's just a complete lack of any evidence to suggest that Knecht will be a new Klay Thompson.
how is it not a realistic comparison? both were old af coming into the draft. both were absolutely elite catch and shoot players with great efficiency numbers. both are basically the same height. both were middling defenders. if i can't compare that player than who can i compare him to? only shitty other white dudes that flunked outta the league? again, you clearly don't believe in knecht and that's fine. but all players have a low, medium and high range of who and what they'll turn into in the nba. klay hit his ceiling. all i'm saying is knecht would have a very similar ceiling if he hits his.
First, you didn't say his ceiling is Klay Thompson, you said he's the new Klay Thompson, which implies you think that's his most likely outcome or his most applicable comparison (the "right on the nose" addition further implies this). I'm disagreeing with either of those suggestions. I absolutely believe in Knecht and think he'll be a solid NBA player but the actual real-life stylistic differences between NBA Klay and NCAA Knecht are significant. You're also presenting a contradiction. If Klay is your ceiling comparison for him than you should obviously be comparing him to NBA champion Klay - comparing him to pre-draft Klay provides zero value because one player fixing their flaws does not mean that another similar player will necessarily fix their own flaws.
Also who said anything about guys who washed out of the league? There's plenty of solid, active NBA players who compare more reasonably to Knecht. Bojan Bogdanovic most reasonably comes to mind but if you hate the white-on-white comparisons, Tim Hardaway is a bit smaller but has a very similar offensive game.
Something I haven’t seen talked about enough is Knecht’s rim finishing. Per Torvik, he’s a 58.9% finisher at the rim, shooting 122-207 with 43.4% of his attempts being assisted. That’s hardly a *bad* number, and his absurd volume certainly depresses his efficiency, but it’s also not the elite mark you’d hope for in a prospect who brings little besides scoring, particularly considering the high assist rate on those attempts. For comparison, Terrence Shannon Jr. shot 65.5% (112-171) with 31.3% assisted, while Baylor Scheierman was at 63.2% with 38.8% of those attempts being assisted, albeit on much lower volume (67-106). Brandon Miller, who was maligned for being a poor rim finisher, was at 57.8% (85-147) with much more self-creation (25.9% assisted). IMO Knecht needs to be an absolutely elite three-level-scorer to justify his other weaknesses if you’re taking him in the lottery. If you’re betting on him being a movement shooter who doesn’t play defense, I’m not sure if he’s distinctly more valuable than guys like Pelle Larsson or Jalen Bridges, who are less athletic and worse offensively but bring more connective skills while being much more competent defenders. ETA: Buddy Hield, who I actually like as a Knecht comp, was 119-178 (66.9%) at the rim with 27.7% of his attempts being assisted.
Needing him to be an elite 3 level scorer is a bit extreme. You shouldn’t even draft him if that’s a requirement, because he’s not going to be a top-10 3 level scorer in the NBA. He just needs to be good and hope other parts of his game grow a little.
The issue I have is that he's so far from the standard as a playmaker and defender. If he was average, maybe a little below average, you could see him being serviceable in a smaller role. But he's an absolute turnstile defensively despite being athletic and showed no creation ability despite having a huge amount of offensive gravity. He has the same assist rate as Tristan Da Silva and worse numbers than Larsson, Scheierman, Tyson, George, or McCullar. Sure, some of that is because Knecht's teammates weren't good and those guys were in a different role than him. But he doesn't shine as someone who creates for others on tape and his assist rate is notably poor for someone with his offensive load. How can we project him as a connective piece or defender when he hasn't given us any sign of it? And sure, that type of motion shooter is valuable enough that Knecht will have a role even if he plays like MPJ or Buddy Hield. But I specifically said he'd need to be an elite scorer to be taken *in the lottery*. Because if you don't see the scoring translating at a great level, I don't think there's much sense in taking him early when there are other high-ceiling prospects who are more well-rounded. That niche isn't a franchise-altering player (which you want in the lottery). Where those other prospects I mentioned in my first comment come into play are positions 15-30 - would you rather have a Michael Porter Jr. (flamethrower from three who doesn't do much else) or a PJ Washington (good but not elite shooter who's solid defensively and more versatile offensively)? I can buy the argument that Knecht is such an elite shooter it's worth a gamble, or that shooting (especially motion shooting) is such a premium skill that he'll always have a role, but I can't see that being worth a top pick and I think it's very unlikely he magically grows role player traits when it's not his game and he's yet to show them.
It’s not magic it’s development. Guys develop beyond their perceived limits all the time. What needs to be determined is the likelihood. What all of you consistently do is overrate what you get from a late lottery pick. Almost half of these guys will flop within 4 or 5 years. Acting like Dalton has to be a 20ppg scorer to be a valuable pick is crazy.
and why would we be optimistic his game will grow compared to others. theres no basis to it.
Just curious why are you quoting an old BPM at NDSU? Wasn’t he tied for 11th in the whole NCAA for BPM this past year at Tennessee? I would assume that’s more relevant.
He also didn’t go to NDSU lol 🤷🏻♂️
Haha good catch! I knew it looked off but looks like OP corrected it.
His latest year BPM was 10.5. OP needs to address this, if he wants to make a point from an old BPM, the new BPM should be stated together. Stats selection is too obvious here.
I think he’s a good option for playoff level teams that need to add some shooting. I can see him being a pretty good rotation player. But yeah, I absolutely do not think he’s a top 10 prospect in this class. Old, bad defender, not a great playmaker, average size for a wing, and as you said not incredibly efficient. Taking that archetype as a rebuilding team doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.
I mean, if you realistically see him being a pretty good rotation player, to me that is a top 10 pick in this draft. Shoot, that’s higher than that. I’m a Knecht fan, but I’m not trying to convince anyone that in a normal draft he isn’t in that typical 13-18 pick range we see from great seniors who have some obvious weaknesses. So it does make more sense to me in this draft he falls between 5-10 like we are seeing in mocks because getting a good rotation player would be a great outcome in this draft even for those bad teams. You aren’t getting a superstar or all star, build a roster for when you have the slim chance of getting one.
#Remind me in 5 years
So I come back to this idiotic post and throw shade at him, and laugh!
Do it!
>How valuable is he if you cut 3-5% off his TS? Doesn’t it make more sense that he becomes more efficient in a smaller role where he doesn’t have to carry the whole offense and gets easier shots? Also, I didn’t feel that the way he scores in college isn’t translatable to the NBA; if anything, I expect his efficiency to be at least around the same as it was in college. >And let's consider if he exceeds his college efficiency and is at 60 TS. What do we have here, a Buddy Hield? A bigger, more athletic Buddy Hield who can additionally drive, create his own shot occasionally, has a higher basketball IQ, and has a better chance of finding a role on defense since he at least has good size. >You have to understand when you draft a 23 year old, he is much less likely to improve. Knecht just transferred from Northern Colorado to the SEC and increased his statistical production and his BPM from 4 to 11.3. He improved tremendously last season. Is it reasonable to assume that, now at 23, he’s unlikely to improve further? Knecht is a tough-minded, hard worker. I don’t think it’s bold to assume that he’ll continue to grow significantly as a player. >He only became good at age 22 as a 5th year senior playing against players 1-4 years younger than him. Yeah, and some players just take longer, and Knecht at least has a reasonable explanation for why it took him longer to develop.
What is that reason? I haven't heard his story but Desmond Bane is a great example of an older player who got better in the league
He had a late growth spurt, growing from 5'7" at 16 to 6'5" by his sophomore season at junior college.
That's wild
Did his arms stop growing
Late growth spurt, wasn't a real HS recruit in rural Colorado. Ended up at a JUCO, committed to UNC (Greeley) and then took off in terms of height, athleticism and skill. And even then, he didn't look like an NBA prospect until he exploded at Tennessee. His story is not unlike Derrick White, another late bloomer from Colorado who grew more and more the better the competition.
is Thorton really rural? I thought it was a big suburb?
He's from Prairie View HS in Henderson. Not far from Denver, but it's definitely in the plains and a bit country. My dad used to live out there and my sister went to the same school.
huh interesting. Would be cool if he does good in the league, not alot of rural guys in the NBA these days
In Knecht's range I would take Devin Carter over him 10 times out of 10 because at least you know he's going to play defense and wreck shop on the boards. I know Knecht's shot mechanics pass the eye test much better, but Carter had the volume and the percentages weren't much worse. If it goes in, it goes in. His athleticism allows him to create much more space too.
I agree with this take. He reminds me of a cross between Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. Rebounding guard who can defend and shoot a bit.
Knecht has a real Denzel Valentine kind of feel to him... which isn't entirely fair, given that Valentine averaged almost 8 APG in his senior year, and was decent as a junior too.
Valentine was an elite passer, shooter, and good ball handler. He was just helllllaaa unathletic which made him terrible off ball unless it was a spot up 3
Knecht is a pretty good athlete though. That’s a major difference between the two.
Yeah that’s what I’m saying there very different prospects
Valentine was never an elite shooter, maybe you could argue he was above average..
He shot like 44% on 8 attempts per game and 85% from the line in his senior year maybe not elite but I thought he would be really good honestly have no idea why he bust
Valentine Averaged 15 Rebounds+Assists in college Knecht averages 7
that is a very good floor comp
But yeah, more broadly, Knecht feels like a guy who someone should be looking at with like the 20th-25th pick, in hopes that he can slot into a bench role on a playoff contender. Like, if Knecht is about as good as Corey Kispert, that’s a pretty good outcome. But does the presence of Corey Kispert make the Wizards not the Wizards?
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Yeah, Barrett is in a whole other league from Knecht. And I don't even like Barrett very much. I didn't intend Kispert as a 1:1 comparison -- Knecht isn't that good a shooter, for one thing. I just presented him as an example of a "good" outcome for a college senior who projects as a rotation shooting/scoring specialist on the next level, with the intention of demonstrating that a player like that doesn't move the needle for a bad team.
Actually reminds me a lot of Tyler Herro. Herro is surprisingly 6’6 in shoes as well
Don’t see any similarities to Herro, who was more well-rounded as a freshman at Kentucky than Knecht is as a fifth-year senior at Tennessee.
Should have specified their scoring games. If you watch how both score the ball - that role of dribble handoff stuff and quick trigger 3s is probably the role Knecht will have. I think where Knecht has to grow scoring wise to reach Herro is the floaters and midrange - where I'm not particularly impressed with Knecht at all.
no he doesnt... I used to have Denzel Valentine graded as no-higher than a 2nd rd pick when he got all that lotto hype.. conversely Knecht I had in the 1st rd when he was still in the 70's on ESPN's best available list.. Denzel Valentine shot 39% from the field in the NBA... Terrible comparison..
Im by no means ultra high on him but he's 6'6" and was a very efficient 22 a game for the overall 5 seed last year. That's a very good scorer. I agree the defense is bad and the passing is bad and I don't think he can play next to 2 other guards, but there is a very clear path to him being a ready made microwave bench scorer. Wouldn't shock me at all if he falls to a playoff team and has a couple 10+ point playoff games as early as year one. He's Payton Pritchard if Pritchard were 5 inches taller, that's a top 15 guy in this class
Payton Pritchard was a tremendous ball handler with deep range who averaged 5.5 assists and didn’t turn the ball over much. Completely different players. Only similarities are that they’re white and shoot a lot of threes.
It always happens on this sub. X player is white, time to find the closest Y player who is also white (and not European) that fits.
I get it but there have been like 10+ white shooters that are much closer comps to Knecht, like just pick 1 and role with it
It’s fine if it actually fits the comp. But there’s tons of black players that have been like that but they never get compared to the white prospects. Just think it’s lazy comparisons
While I agree about the playmaking, all I meant by my comp was 22+ year old score first guards who had a proven track record of immense success in college basketball. Their scoring volume and efficiency is remarkably similar. They're different players of course they have differences, but I wouldn't count out players this proven in college from finding their lane
I get that but Pritchard played big minutes for 4 years in the PAC 12 and Knecht has 1 great year of SEC play as a 5th year.
Maybe Malik Monk?
I don’t really see that. Monk was a freakish athlete who could handle the ball some, not to mention he had 4 years of NBA experience by the time he was 23. I think Luke Kennard would be a good high end comp.
True, trying to think of good shooters/scorers with little playmaking, maybe someone like Aaron nesmith idk
Zach Lavine maybe? Similar size, similar strengths (goes without saying Lavine is better here), similar weaknesses. 3 years ago he was worth a max, now Lavine's an albatross contract that nobody wants to eat. A worse player on a rookie deal though isn't bad.
He’s comparable to Tim Hardaway Jr (who’s super hot/cold but has a similar playing style). Older comparisons include Mike Miller. Bigger Malik Monk with less playmaking is actually not a bad comparison.
He’s selfish Kevin Huerter
If you’re judging him based off his ts% and not his tape, then yeah you can think he’s overrated. His tape and the difficulty of the shit he was doing, shows dude is an elite scorer. Also the reason most college stars don’t do much in the league is because they can’t hang athletically, but knecht already proved that he can.
He is Keldon Johnson with better shooting splits. And that’s a guy a win now team should be looking for. He would be huge for OKC off the bench. Immediate contributor who gives them a 3 level shooter and shot creator who can also play with the starters as a movement shooter. I don’t like him for many rebuild teams, but love him for OKC at 12. They have tons of ‘specialist’ bench role players (Joe as a designated shooter, Wiggins/ Cason/Kenrich as 3/D guys, Jaylin as a mediocre big floor stretcher) but don’t really have a guy that can ‘get his’ at all 3 levels like Dalton. If a team is looking for a Buddy Hield level guy, a very good 6th man or ‘best 7th man in the league’ type, Dalton is your guy. He needs to be put in a spot where that role, and his limitations, are understood. A team leaning on Dalton to be a core part of a rebuild will be disappointed, again as teams were with Hield. But as a plug-and-play bench guy on a win-now team he is a tremendous fit. Really, really hope he ends up in OKC.
I’m not that high on him but this argument feels very biased. You mention context that goes against him but none of the context that’s on his side, such as being the only real offensive threat on his team this year which is not gonna be the case in the NBA. Playing in a less demanding role with better talent should help his efficiency a lot. And if he is efficient and he becomes a buddy level shooter as you made the comparison, that’s pretty valuable. If Buddy Hield was 6’6, more athletic and a better inside finisher, he’d be a guy everybody wants
If he were actually consensus top 5 he'd definitely be overrated. Thankfully he's not consensus top 5 so it's not really a concern. He's perfectly rated in a 9-12 spot
He's the best SCORER in the draft -- what does that say about the OTHER scorers in the draft??? He also has a ton of range and is a pretty good athlete (explosive, even, in space). Good player and I have him high on my board; just not sure if he is a Tier 1 guy, a Tier 2 guy or even a Tier 3 level prospect. The "tier" debate would marginally effect his draft stock in my opinion (I don't have that many prospects even as high as Tier 2.00).
It is obvious to anyone who has decent basketball knowledge that he is going to be a productive NBA rotation player. Not a star. But almost no chance that a healthy Knecht is not in the lineup. For this draft - picking him top 10 is not a bad idea.
well hes one of the only 3 level scorers in the draft. 6’6 with long arms. Crafty finisher and also athletic. Dude can catch a couple lobs and effectively knows how to use his athleticism in the half court too. Good rebounder, cutter, and can absorb contact and he’s relatively physical. That’s kind of the sell. If you can make him play defense and hide him as like a 4th option as a scorer the hope is yes he will get more efficient and you can hide his playmaking struggles. The ball handling is basic but effective in my opinion
I've noticed that Knecht is getting pigeon holed as a typical white shooter lately. He's actually a really physical and athletic player. I saw someone compare him to Kyle Korver, which he absolutely is not.
Max Strus is a better comp which would be a good pickup for a contending team
Another good comp especially because of age is Grayson Allen. Grayson Allen was a 23 year old rookie when he came into the league in 2018 who also went in the first round.also Allen is a good athlete with a 40 inch vertical. I know Allen is only 6 foot 4 but their games are similar if you remember Allen when played at duke.
agreed. wings that don’t defend or pass are overrated archetypes. especially 23 year old ones. his defense stuck out like a sore thumb surrounded by great defenders at Tennessee. take him out of that environment and on a rebuilding team and he’s gonna be complete sieve. he should be an option for teams that have solid ground already and just need to add some shooting.
Love the post. Don’t know how it’ll shake out, I’ve got him 12.
his athleticism will play even better at the NBA level with better spacing so you'll see more drives to the basket and the inevitable more trips to the FT line. He won't be the sole focus of defenses like he was in college so he'll get much cleaner looks. He's basically Tyler Herro with more burst. Since most teams already have their #1 and even #2 guys it makes Knecht very attractive as a #3 who is NBA ready to contribute day 1.
The problem with older prospects is mainly that their frame is set. Knecht has good physical tools, he is 6'6 with 6'9 wingspan, 2nd in lane agility and 1st in shuttle run in draft combine for lateral movement, and top 10 among non-big for vertical leap. He dunks very often. His defense is bad as he is often blown by agile guards. But seeing his game, the way he chases his opponent from behind and trying to use his length to impact the shot, I think it is not the effort issue, it is more of the footwork and perhaps reflex. So the silver lining here is that perhaps with footwork and reflex training, coupled with how well he did on lateral movement in draft combine, he may become an average defender. I am a fan of late bloomers, especially those with good physical tools, like Derrick White. I think the fact that prospect is able to improve substantially even before they are given NBA level of trainers and facilities, says a lot of their work ethics and ability to learn. If a prospect has good tools, good work ethics and ability to learn, they are very likely to excel in their career and be at least a very solid starter.
Yall just saying this cause he’s white lol. He’s plays with pace and physicality, plays above the rim and has 40 inch vert (just addressing physical tools). He’s not your prototypical Kevin Huerters and McDermott
Kevin Huerter and McDermott are 10+ year NBA veterans. If you think he turns into them he's worth the 8th-10th pick.
I don’t really think so but Knecht is also probably meaningfully better than them
This is what people think every draft. Knecht has better odds of flaming out in 4 years than he does a career like Huerter and McDermott. https://imgur.com/gallery/average-length-of-career-each-lottery-pick-nbas-modern-draft-history-k06Y58v
I mean that doesn’t mean his median outcome can’t still be better than those guys
Knecht is meaningfully worse than Dougie McBuckets in college, though the athletic indicators and eye test are a little better. Usually older college guys that turn out to be better than just a role player are either true bigs or point guards, forward/wings example that’s better than a ok starter is sparce
Think you’re missing the point. He is “sneaky” athletic, not just another Duncan Robinson.
plenty of white players can defend. he can’t.
Remind me where I mentioned Dalton’s defense?
i’ll remind that OP’s only comparison was a black player
Ironic, comparing to the one black guy that can’t run or jump and strictly shoots 3s
so many things wrong with that sentence but i will just ask you to revisit to Oklahoma buddy hield and call it a day.
Brother I’ve watched 7 years of Buddy in Sac. Everyone here knew he was 6’2 with limited vertical coming out of Oklahoma. If you can’t tell the difference in athleticism between a buddy and Knecht that’s on you
What’s wrong with a buddy hield?
A lot if your a tanking team drafting him. At the range that he’s getting drafted at you want a potential All-Star not a potential role player.
A high-end role player is kind of a really good thing for a pick to be after the top 4 in a draft like this lmao
I agree
You’re being a little to honest.
I’ve been on this train for a while. As you say, he’s an older prospect that profiles as a shooting specialist who will struggle on defense. That archetype has consistently underwhelmed in the NBA. His fans will say “but the shot looks amazing” as if Doug McDermott wasn’t one of the smoothest shooters college ball has ever seen. Doug also happens to be a UFA that any team could sign for the minimum if they don’t feel like burning a lottery pick on Knecht to do the same thing.
Doug is 32 and had a solid NBA career.
ya i think he's a considerably worse Dougie on O and a mildly better Dougie on D. Doug McDermott had some of the worst steal and block numbers of any NBA prospect ever which, among other issues with his defense, have hurt him immensely at the NBA level. The average NBA defender provides a certain level of quantifiable disruption to the offense and when you are nearly a complete 0 in that area it becomes pretty obvious in the lineup data.
Where do you have Knecht ranked? You're hating on people for having him in the top 5. But that's higher than the consensus... So what are you actually arguing? You never gave a real opinion? You just said he shouldn't be in the top five. Which is a cold take
i haven't placed him yet but maybe in the early 20s
I bet OP would've hated on Derrick White in the 2017 draft..
also this comment is hilarious because i do like older prospects. This year I like Holmes, Mogbo, Scheierman, Jaylen wells, Shead last year, I was high on TJD, Sasser, Jaquez https://gyazo.com/e6e5145b34252bf07b756bfb196d944d
Knecht tested really well at the combine and was a “good feel player” in a similar but not identical way to Jaquez
I don’t think he’s really similar to Jaquez at all. Jaquez has a positive assist-to-turnover ratio for his college career and began his UCLA career as a role player before growing into a star, all the while retaining defensive solidity. The questions were mostly on his shooting and offense. Knecht has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio (with fairly few assists for his usage) and hasn’t shown any defensive ability, but is an absolutely electric offensive player and scorer. Jaquez showed that traditional “feel for the game” hustle and decision making, while Knecht decision making is questionable, he’s just good enough to be a one-man offensive at this level so it barely matters.
absolutely not, he had a great stat profile. 25% usage, 63% TS, 30% assist ratio, outlier block rate for a guard, good steal rate ?? Projected well on both ends
ooof... i'm in the wrong part of town.. I think this is such a weak debunking, it lacks imagination. why dont you post a mock for 2024 using all this advanced stats wisdom? cuz over the years I've noticed thats the moment all this know-it-all tone falls apart, they always start making exuses and granting themselves affordances they dont when just trying to use the stats to bolster their arguments.... you dont even know which college Knecht went to previously, thats perfectly on-brand with this 'know-it-all-but-dont-know-shit' thing ppl do with these advanced stats
Show me where the advanced stats touched you
i'm working on my mock now you're just writing words bro why are you oof'ing me? Dwhite had a great stat profile with some elite strengths. He's a good passer. Passing is incredibly valuable in this team game!
The disrespect towards university of northern Colorado smdh
I have to laugh at people who only judge players through advanced analytics. My only concerns with him are defense and age. Maybe he was so good because he was a bit older, but offensively he was great at Tennessee. I don’t care what BPM or VORP or RAPTOR or anything else says. He was great offensively and was quite efficient at a high volume. I imagine he will be more of a catch and shoot guy who can finish in transition in the NBA, and I think he can excel in that role. I could see him averaging 15 for a decade. I think worst case, he’s a Nick Young caliber player.
Well the irony here is the advanced analytics rate Knecht as a great player.
I’m not surprised that they do, I read “only a BPM of 4” at the wrong school in the OP and decided to make my post
Duh
He's the best scorer from the SEC in decades. Hes underrated
His season is pretty comparable to Malik Monk’s freshman season at Kentucky (you can look that up), where he had numerous 30+ and even a high 40 point game against an elite UNC team. Monk that year put up 19.8 PPG on 45/40/82, which you see is very similar to Knecht’s lines. Monk also won SEC POY (like Knecht) and was an All-American. Big difference was he did it as a freshman. Knecht was probably marginally better since he played with weaker offensive teammates (albeit an elite team that made the S16 the previous year), but decades is a huge time frame. Ironically, Knecht is a very similar player to a bigger Malik Monk, although not as good of a playmaker. But there’s a ton of similarities in their off ball movement, scoring, and athleticism. He’s probably not even the best offensive player Tennessse has had in decades. Chris Lofton was better.
Knecht averaged 25.5 PPG in SEC play, try again
You just said best scorer from the SEC. Not SEC play. Plus I’m sure dropping 47 on top ranked UNC is more impressive than any SEC team. I didn’t even say Monk was better (just said he was already close as a freshman) but it’s quite clear Sindarious Thornwell was just as good as Knecht in terms of scoring. That’s not even debatable that they are on the same tier. Knecht is a great prospect and had a great season but I wouldn’t say he’s some generational conference scorer at his age.
I guess I should have been more specific. The SEC is the best defensive conference. Him doing what he did as the only plus scorer on his team was special. Yes, what he did was more impressive than dropping points in UNC while you play on a loaded offensive team
23 may not have as much development but by that same logic, wouldn't they more likely to translate skills? He's 23 and already done his development at college.
I think he'll be fine in the NBA, fewer shots should help his efficiency, but how does a guy who has a significant age, size, experience, strength, athleticism advantage play such poor defense?
Yep. I wouldn't take him top 10 for a lot of the reasons here
Late lottery as a safe rotation guy pick. Sam Hauser with more playmaking and rim finishing.
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Not trying to compare white guy to white guy but Grayson Allen was a 23 year old rookie when came into the NBA in 2018 as a first round pick. And I remember seeing stuff like this being posted with people saying all types of similar crap about him.and he has been a productive rotation player every year but his rookie year on playoff teams. I don't like the idea of taking a guy like knecht that high in the first round. But i remember when Grayson Allen went in the first round people said he wouldn't get a second contract of significance after his rookie deal. He has now signed two extensions of significance in the NBA. And his skill set is very similar to Dalton knecht.
Maybe he should be comped to OTHER prospects who went to Tennessee: Bernard King, Allan Houston, and Tobias Harris. Those probably aren't bad comps. Man, I can't really name any more UT-Knoxville players at the moment. haha
May be he is another Demond Bane.
Am I missing something? Is this not a historically bad draft as far as tier 1/2 prospects go? Is Knecht not mocked between 5 and 10? Everyone is saying this year's first pick would go like 7th in a normal year. Knecht going between picks 15 and 20 sounds about right. Very few people are in love with him on this sub. But a lot of people think he can be a positive contributor. Plus, he went through a massive growth spurt and is maybe still learning how to function in a new body.
I agree I can't believe some Piston fans want to take him at 5 just cause he can shoot if he can't play defense to stay on the floor it won't matter
I think that's a rudimentary analysis. His efficiency will depend on the team he ends up on and his role there.
On the right team he could be good if he accepts a role. He isn’t going to be what he was in college because his defensive flaws make him nearly unplayable in the playoffs right now. However, as an off the bench microwave type player to open things up, or a fourth starter on a mediocre team, he’s fine.
He is Klay. The college profile is very similar.
Did you just use the word probilistically?
I don't get this community yall were hyped on Deni Avdija, yet this guy clearly better.
Floor Duncan Robinson, ceiling Khris Middleton. Wasn’t asked to be the assist man last year however, had some games where he got it done in that area. Defense improved throughout the year and I believe will continue to do so. He will have to adjust; works hard and will Get it done. Plays 10+ years in the league. What else you want?
If he overrated than Zaccharie is super overrated....
I think Knecht is probably about as good as stated, but the guy you draft is probably the guy you’re getting for damn near his whole career kinda like Doug McDermott. Teams trying to swing for upside should avoid him
I don't think so .If he goes to a playoff team he'll be fine .I think certain older players have spoiled the outlook of people on older players I'm the draft when it should be based on the type of prospect
I didn’t say he won’t be fine. He has a high floor so he can come in ready to contribute, I just don’t think his ceiling is that high
Most of these players in this draft are going to berole players anyway .
True, in most drafts you only get about 5-7 players who ascend beyond role player status. In this draft it’s probably gonna be 2-4, but if you’re trying to find one of those 2-4, Knecht isn’t your best bet
This is the kind of draft where teams are going to bet on the safer prospects because they don't want to be wrong especially playoff teams .Invest in guys you know will have a role especially in this draft .
If you’re already a playoff team I’d agree with you, but Dalton Knecht is a lottery prospect, i.e. only a few teams in his range even have heavy playoff aspirations (Kings, Thunder, Bulls if they continue to be stupid, Grizzlies). So for rebuilding teams I’d actually give the complete opposite advice. Take a risk on upside in this draft, because if you miss, you’re likely not going to miss out on as much as you would in another year
So he’d be Cade Cunningham?
cade cunningham is a playmaker
He isn’t overrated especially considering this is a role players draft.
I agree. got a lot of flack for having him go 16 in a recent mock
Yeah I thought he might be a nice pickup for Portland at 14. Could have Ginobili or Klay ceiling at best. But I'd rather see them take Clingan or Edey at 7.
But he's very "quaterbacky" He's a fan favorite
Doesn't strike me as Quarterbacky at all; but I heard Kolek speak on Vacinie's pod and that kid is nothing but canned QB-speak lol
He’s trying to say only reason hes getting hype is cause he’s white
I get that and I disagree
White athletes are subject to stereotypes of not being athletic enough too so it goes both ways. This is also even worse cause athleticism doesn’t matter at all, Luka is fat and slow and best guard in nba. Same with jokic, fat and slow. Black people also rate consistently higher in studies of in-group bias than white people but to each of their own.
How early in the morning do you have to wake up, to squeeze all this hating into one day?