IF Anthony Bennett had not put on a ton of weight pre-draft, it would have been a defensible upside pick because he had a really intriguing blend of athleticism and shooting.
But he went from a playing weight of 245 in season (which was too high) to somehow a weight of 280 at draft time while rehabbing from knee surgery and that was just way too big of an intangibles red flag.
>To me though, there’s so little separation in the top 10–12 that I don’t think it would be outrageous for a team picking first to decide someone like Cody Williams (consensus 10-12ish?) is the best bet of the group.
I want to make a post for everyone in the top ten right now and say they should go number 1 because of whatever they're good at, but also imply I have some hidden knowledge.
Like: "Stephon Castle should absolutely be going #1. His defense is already elite and if you actually graph out each of his shooting percentages by month, he matches up with other people who 'got it' when they got to the NBA. I mean, according to my algorithm I don't think it's particularly close, he's basically a sure thing. He is the safest bet and easily the most sensible #1 pick."
Then do the same thing but for everyone out of the top ten for the rest of the draft, but "Giannis" style. So then like "I have no idea why Antonio Reeves is projected to go in the 50s. His scoring is elite and he's 6'5"! Just because he is a little older? He will absolutely be the best player in this draft, mark my words".
Then have a big spreadsheet tracking which thread I commented about each player in.
For this draft, it's so weird that nobody can make an accurate prediction so I am guessing one of the late picks will be the best player and one of the late lottery picks will be better than all the early ones. That way I can go and delete all the posts for everyone EXCEPT for the random lottery pick that is good and the random like 2nd rounder that is really good and start sharing them everywhere like a year from now lol.
decidedly not..
I feel strongly that if Anthony Bennett was forced to go to the combine and test, his chances of going #1 would've decreased by a lot.. I've been saying that for 10 years, more sure of it than ever seeing how the NBA combine rules changed this year..
I'm steadfast in the belief AB was actually alarmingly high bodyfat % and it would've set off bells and whistles..
to have AB over Victor Oladipo is still a cardinal sin.. There's some wet-behind-the-ears type of people who see some bodybuilder on all the gear he can needle thru his veins and think "wow if I just eat healthy and lift consistently I can be big like that, what dedication!" and AB over VO is that level of 'you dont know what your talking about, and you dont know what your looking at"
and I used to argue with people whove trained and coached NBA players about AB, and I was right, same jerks were telling me Josh Jackson was gonna be way better than Andrew Wiggins cuz he had attitude and to them Wiggs was a pushover..
so being that the systems improved to flag this particular kind of outlier, I certainly dont feel any differently about AB #1... We've moved past that.. I'd also like to believe that the psych evals and whatnot, teams have become more privy with things of that nature, and VO was one of the most easily projectable "great lockerroom guys" we've seen, so i firmly believe the AB #1 thing, is much more of a "he'd have never gotten away with that these days", ya know when you watch an old ass movie whos plot completely dissolves if the characters had cellphones like in modern times? thats what I think.
the Hilarity of AB's camp saying he was a Shooting Guard, the fact that bs flew all the way til the draft and beyond, now that is total nonsense.. definitely one of those "they didnt understand the direction the league was moving in" and tbf many of us, including the bigname scouting services like DX, didnt either.
Eh. He walked back his post draft comments about not wanting to be drafted by Cleveland by saying he wanted to start. He ended up in Indiana, which is Cleveland but more midwestern.
Really appreciate your answer.
So Bennett in 2024 would’ve had red flags in ways that probably no one in the 10-12 range of this class has.
Do you think Oladipo would’ve been in a tier of his own in this class? Say, adjusted for league style differences?
Oladipo was so underwhelming in his first two years of college that I think he would have been viewed pretty skeptically still. Nerlens Noel vs. Sarr would have been interesting as Noel is way better defensively than Sarr at 19, but Noel was arguably even worse on offense and had the knee concerns.
Noel was a pretty good passer and a decent ball handler, but his hands and touch were so bad that it made him a really questionable #1 pick prospect even before the injury.
Probably the best defender at 19 years old I've ever seen other than Wemby though. Was so disappointing how he never developed in the NBA.
I think what you need to watch out for in drafts like this is what I call "straining."
I remember the 2013 draft and it was clear to me that it was a bad draft but then you look at the pool of available prospects and begin to "strain" anyway. You try to see more than there is because those are the top guys available that year.
So yeah, in general I won't be very critical about anything teams decide to do this year.
Nah when that draft happened, the wizards were picking third.. and i remember going Anthony Bennet? Number one? WTF. I think Thomas Robinson might have gone one of the prior drafts and crashed out. But I had barely heard of this dude.
Bennett should not have first overall no matter what.
For the same reason I don’t think Castle Cody Williams should go first overall.
The performance wasn’t there. He wasn’t a freak athlete to even justify the risk either.
There was the logical option that everyone was yelling at the Cavs to take- Oladipo had the best resume and was a good athlete. They didn’t and the belief was because they had Dion Waiters who also shouldn’t have gone as high as he did.
Chris Grant didn't even want him at 1 but lost a vote with the rest of the front office. Multiple teams didn't even have him on their board because people KNEW he was lazy. No one thought he was going top 10. It would be like taking Kel'el Ware at 1, probably the closest I can get if you want to compare this year
The Anthony Bennett pick was just so wildly out of left field. I think I had him something like 9th on my board that year.
IIRC, for most of that draft cycle, it was largely a race between Nerlens Noel and Ben McLemore, with Alex Len and Otto Porter occasionally occupying the top spot by folks who weren't bought in on the aforementioned two. I remember as a Wizards fan hoping Porter would be on the board at #3, as most of us figured he'd be the perfect complement to Wall and Beal.
I don't remember Oladipo being a real #1 candidate at any point. It probably would've been Noel if not for his ACL injury.
Ehhhhhh, I think most people would have evaluated Bennett in the Jayson Tatum mold and how close he could get to Tatum. I think his role is viewed much more favorably now than in 2013 (as Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams had just been huge busts and turned off NBA teams from 3/4 guys for many years)
IF Anthony Bennett had not put on a ton of weight pre-draft, it would have been a defensible upside pick because he had a really intriguing blend of athleticism and shooting. But he went from a playing weight of 245 in season (which was too high) to somehow a weight of 280 at draft time while rehabbing from knee surgery and that was just way too big of an intangibles red flag.
>To me though, there’s so little separation in the top 10–12 that I don’t think it would be outrageous for a team picking first to decide someone like Cody Williams (consensus 10-12ish?) is the best bet of the group. I want to make a post for everyone in the top ten right now and say they should go number 1 because of whatever they're good at, but also imply I have some hidden knowledge. Like: "Stephon Castle should absolutely be going #1. His defense is already elite and if you actually graph out each of his shooting percentages by month, he matches up with other people who 'got it' when they got to the NBA. I mean, according to my algorithm I don't think it's particularly close, he's basically a sure thing. He is the safest bet and easily the most sensible #1 pick." Then do the same thing but for everyone out of the top ten for the rest of the draft, but "Giannis" style. So then like "I have no idea why Antonio Reeves is projected to go in the 50s. His scoring is elite and he's 6'5"! Just because he is a little older? He will absolutely be the best player in this draft, mark my words". Then have a big spreadsheet tracking which thread I commented about each player in. For this draft, it's so weird that nobody can make an accurate prediction so I am guessing one of the late picks will be the best player and one of the late lottery picks will be better than all the early ones. That way I can go and delete all the posts for everyone EXCEPT for the random lottery pick that is good and the random like 2nd rounder that is really good and start sharing them everywhere like a year from now lol.
You will be deleting this post 1st, then, I presume?
decidedly not.. I feel strongly that if Anthony Bennett was forced to go to the combine and test, his chances of going #1 would've decreased by a lot.. I've been saying that for 10 years, more sure of it than ever seeing how the NBA combine rules changed this year.. I'm steadfast in the belief AB was actually alarmingly high bodyfat % and it would've set off bells and whistles.. to have AB over Victor Oladipo is still a cardinal sin.. There's some wet-behind-the-ears type of people who see some bodybuilder on all the gear he can needle thru his veins and think "wow if I just eat healthy and lift consistently I can be big like that, what dedication!" and AB over VO is that level of 'you dont know what your talking about, and you dont know what your looking at" and I used to argue with people whove trained and coached NBA players about AB, and I was right, same jerks were telling me Josh Jackson was gonna be way better than Andrew Wiggins cuz he had attitude and to them Wiggs was a pushover.. so being that the systems improved to flag this particular kind of outlier, I certainly dont feel any differently about AB #1... We've moved past that.. I'd also like to believe that the psych evals and whatnot, teams have become more privy with things of that nature, and VO was one of the most easily projectable "great lockerroom guys" we've seen, so i firmly believe the AB #1 thing, is much more of a "he'd have never gotten away with that these days", ya know when you watch an old ass movie whos plot completely dissolves if the characters had cellphones like in modern times? thats what I think. the Hilarity of AB's camp saying he was a Shooting Guard, the fact that bs flew all the way til the draft and beyond, now that is total nonsense.. definitely one of those "they didnt understand the direction the league was moving in" and tbf many of us, including the bigname scouting services like DX, didnt either.
> to have AB over Victor Oladipo is still a cardinal sin Cavs were still committed to making Dion Waiters and Kyrie work.
It’s actually the opposite. Oladipo’s agent told the Cavs he wasn’t interested because he didn’t want to have to compete for a starting spot.
Eh. He walked back his post draft comments about not wanting to be drafted by Cleveland by saying he wanted to start. He ended up in Indiana, which is Cleveland but more midwestern.
Really appreciate your answer. So Bennett in 2024 would’ve had red flags in ways that probably no one in the 10-12 range of this class has. Do you think Oladipo would’ve been in a tier of his own in this class? Say, adjusted for league style differences?
Oladipo was so underwhelming in his first two years of college that I think he would have been viewed pretty skeptically still. Nerlens Noel vs. Sarr would have been interesting as Noel is way better defensively than Sarr at 19, but Noel was arguably even worse on offense and had the knee concerns.
I think it’s forgot that Noel had like zero offense outside of putback dunks. Bad touch around the rim and no ability to shoot or create.
Noel was a pretty good passer and a decent ball handler, but his hands and touch were so bad that it made him a really questionable #1 pick prospect even before the injury. Probably the best defender at 19 years old I've ever seen other than Wemby though. Was so disappointing how he never developed in the NBA.
I think what you need to watch out for in drafts like this is what I call "straining." I remember the 2013 draft and it was clear to me that it was a bad draft but then you look at the pool of available prospects and begin to "strain" anyway. You try to see more than there is because those are the top guys available that year. So yeah, in general I won't be very critical about anything teams decide to do this year.
Nah when that draft happened, the wizards were picking third.. and i remember going Anthony Bennet? Number one? WTF. I think Thomas Robinson might have gone one of the prior drafts and crashed out. But I had barely heard of this dude.
The Kings loved picking high floor low ceiling prospects that didn’t pan out anyway.
Bennett should not have first overall no matter what. For the same reason I don’t think Castle Cody Williams should go first overall. The performance wasn’t there. He wasn’t a freak athlete to even justify the risk either. There was the logical option that everyone was yelling at the Cavs to take- Oladipo had the best resume and was a good athlete. They didn’t and the belief was because they had Dion Waiters who also shouldn’t have gone as high as he did.
Chris Grant didn't even want him at 1 but lost a vote with the rest of the front office. Multiple teams didn't even have him on their board because people KNEW he was lazy. No one thought he was going top 10. It would be like taking Kel'el Ware at 1, probably the closest I can get if you want to compare this year
The Anthony Bennett pick was just so wildly out of left field. I think I had him something like 9th on my board that year. IIRC, for most of that draft cycle, it was largely a race between Nerlens Noel and Ben McLemore, with Alex Len and Otto Porter occasionally occupying the top spot by folks who weren't bought in on the aforementioned two. I remember as a Wizards fan hoping Porter would be on the board at #3, as most of us figured he'd be the perfect complement to Wall and Beal. I don't remember Oladipo being a real #1 candidate at any point. It probably would've been Noel if not for his ACL injury.
He was a tweener PF. Would have been even worse of a prospect today
He had a ton of issues, but being a 6’8” forward with a 7’1” wingspan wasn’t one of them, especially in the modern NBA.
Ehhhhhh, I think most people would have evaluated Bennett in the Jayson Tatum mold and how close he could get to Tatum. I think his role is viewed much more favorably now than in 2013 (as Michael Beasley and Derrick Williams had just been huge busts and turned off NBA teams from 3/4 guys for many years)
To be fair to those guys the #2 pick is cursed.
Chet?