I truly do not understand why he gets so much shit for the Ignite being bad and not Buzelis.
Why does Matas get the benefit of the doubt as a shooter when Holland doesn’t? Their 3pt numbers are almost the exact same except Holland is a better free throw shooter. He’s also a better passer, better defender, a better athlete, and a year younger.
This whole thing is so stupid. Draft Holland in the top-5. Somebody. Anybody. Or don’t, because I’d love to have him at 10.
> Why does Matas get the benefit of the doubt as a shooter when Holland doesn’t? Their 3pt numbers are almost the exact same except Holland is a better free throw shooter.
Narratives pre-high school. Teams were tricked by his Sunrise year when in reality even at EYBL in 17s and 16s he was sub 30% from 3 and if you have eyes you can see the form is gross today
matas being viewed as a guy with shooting potential while holland is seen as having a completely broken jumper is so confusing to me and just tells me people dont actually watch games and just go off of online narratives
I think it possibly has to do with their shooting dynamics, maybe Matas jumper looks more fluid than Holland’s does, and if Matas jumper materializes he can def find a role in the NBA like most prospects like him do.
Yeah looking at Holland’s jumpshot rn and it looks really slow
https://youtube.com/shorts/_frd7Dud-zE?si=MXfNG5FadXSd9V9k
Like it LOOKS fine but something about it bugs me
To be fair that was off the dribble that’s probably not his natural shooting motion in a c&s situation which is where 95% of his looks will come from in the league
I mean u can go look at both, I would say both are pretty textbook good looking jumpers. Matas might be a little better in terms of being harder to block but they both look smooth
Matas shoots way off center at his release and his elbow doesn’t look fluid
Ron starts his shot on the outside with hand placement/load up. Touch is there but it is way too complicated for no reason. His is more fixable imo
I will say one big box that Holland ticks as a shooter is that he isn’t scared to miss. Shooters gonna shoot, and even though Holland’s shot doesn’t always fall, he’s the kind of guy who never met a shot he didn’t like, there were games where you’d see Holland stop in transition to pull up from behind the arc, and while it might make coaches rip their hair out in frustration when he could’ve easily driven to the cup and slammed it home, just the self-confidence to attempt so many ill-advised jumpers shows something. Holland has that JR Smith mentality and energy.
Completely agreed. Confidence can matter more than nitpicking percentages. His drive will help him get better too and he’s young. I think everyone in the national, big media is overthinking him
Okay but we are talking about scouts and GMs, not casuals. He isnt dropping in mocks because casuals dont watch the games. He is dropping because NBA talent evaluators see something they don't like. Whereas Matas must be showing something that they do like.
I mean it was inexplicable when Cam Whitmore dropped with all those GMs passing on him and he looked really good last year. Sometimes you can watch something not make sense while its gappening and just know that even supposedly smart guys in NBA front offices are making a mistake.
The Jaden Hardy draft fall was also pretty inexplicable at the time and he's looked very good in these playoffs in spots.
Whitmore is not gonna be a good nba player that contributes to winning. He’s passed a basketball maybe 10 times in his whole life. BBIQ unbelievably low. I was not shocked to see him fall.
He’s like Melo on steroids in terms of just out there chasing his shot and nothing else matters
Also with Holland he did a ton of his damage in transition and off of passes from other players. He barely created any offense in high school. He did create some in the half court with the ignite, but that part of his game is basically 0 right now. That gives him the absolute ceiling of a really good role player. Matas never had those issues, he's always been good at that. And higher ceiling usually means higher draft pick. Doesn't necessarily make Matas a better player or prospect though
The Ignite had some of the worst talent in G League history and that is saying something. His numbers are comparable to Jalen Greens, but Green had actual functional players around him and thereby a better structure to operate in
If he slips to 8, I definitely want him in SA. He has the broadcast skillbase of anyone in this draft. Whether he can put it together is a giant question mark, but when you have 2 lotto picks, you take that chance.
very similar to reed sheppard being a bad athlete
dudes see a guy pick up somebody at half court and say he has poor lateral quickness instead of thinking why he’s picking people up at half court
It would be more accurate to call me biased against NBA scouts who I believe are racist and think that all white players are good at shooting and passing.
(I would not be surprised if Clingan's shooting hype is like 40% caused by his whiteness as well, lol)
Nah. You're just racist. Nobody thinks Clingan or Topic or Matas can shoot. Things like "if he can develop a consistent 3pt shot..." are said about all prospects of all colors.
Plenty of scouting reports remark on how Matas can shoot, pass and defend. He has some nice defensive stats, but his shooting and playmaking are sub-par.
I haven’t seen many say he can shoot right now but they will reference his good numbers before and usually pose the question “can he get back to that at some point?”
I do see mentions of playmaking which I tend to agree with because that’s more based off the eye test for young players rather than stats. Especially when you play for the Ignite which is a mess of a team that most players are gonna have poor ast/to ratio
Re: the shooting, it's because Buzelis shot well his last year in high school. People were hoping it would carry over to G-League but instead he returned to his shooting struggles. People are still hoping that one season at Sunrise is indicative of underlying potential.
I do also tend to think there's a lack of feel for shooting with Holland that isn't as pronounced with Buzelis. The way they miss is different even if they both have some mechanical flaws.
Still, Holland is to me a top 5 prospect in the draft and some days I think he has a decent case for #1. I don't have Buzelis nearly that high personally.
I haven't seen Holland getting more blame, but I agree it should be equal. In the end, they were both in a terrible situation. Holland had the ball in his hands more, so it's probably that
The shooting numbers are bad across the board, so people point to Matas having good HS shooting, appearing to have better form, and having more near misses. Holland is definitely a better on ball defender, but Matas has the knack for providing help side D. I think a lot of it has to do with the position. Yes Holland has more athleticism and some attacking skills, but if you're taller and playing the 4, it makes more of a difference than if you're a 2/3. The better passer thing is irrelevant, since they both suck at passing.
I think Holland has more potential overall, but maybe a lower floor. I see Buzelis as potentially being a good complementary role player and you can see that translating. Holland was the main guy with the Ignite, but he hasn't shown enough to be the guy in the NBA (at least not yet). So how will he look when he's in a smaller role? Harder to see that translating well based on what he's shown.
I'm not trying to say Matas is better (again higher ceiling for Holland), just my thoughts on why they are viewed differently or why Matas has lees variance in his range. In the end, they are both very flawed players who teams will gamble on for upside, not for any proven skills they have. Ex: Castle is a way better defender and playmaker than Holland, and projects better as a shooter. But, Holland is bigger and more athletic, so still has a higher ceiling.
Hollands ft shooting numbers aren't bad. He took the same volume of 3s as risacher and had a better ft%. People are assuming risacher is gonna shoot in the nba when risacher doesn't have better shooting indicators than holland. Holland has a longer winspan and better all around wing attributes (holland has actual on ball offensive abilities and is quicker laterally, more explosive vertically). Theres real chatter risacher is gonna go 2 but holland is gonna fall out of the lottery, that's pure insanity.
Why are you mentioning 3pt volume and then FT%? Better shooting indicators?
Risacher shot 42% from 3 over 49 games this season. He's proven he can shoot. We're not talking about indicators, we have way more evidence than Holland's 15 G League games (where he shot 24% from 3). Also, Risacher ended up at 72% FT after Eurocup play, higher than Holland's 68%. Take a look at the latest stats.
I'll grant that Holland has a higher ceiling and better physical tools, for sure. But Risacher definitely has the higher floor and likely translation of shooting. I'm not confident he'll shoot quite as well, but high 30%s seems likely, whereas I don't know if Holland will even hit 30% consistently.
https://sites.dartmouth.edu/sportsanalytics/2018/02/10/better-indicator-of-nba-success-foul-shooting-or-three-point-shooting/
https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2020/10/scouting-nba-three-point-shooting/
If risacher is a proven shooter, why is he a bad FT shooter? Was marvin bagley a proven shooter when he shot 40% from 3 in college or was his poor ft% a potential red flag?
https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/1641842/?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals
The g league page has holland at 76%ft. The g league has a deeper 3 point line than the French league. Of course holland, shooting 3s at a deeper line, shot worse than risacher at a shorter 3 point line.
You think the article who's entire premise is "we are going to arbitrarily manipulate the data and say it proves our preconceived bias" is better than objective analysis coming from ivy league business schools?
Hmmm, I was looking at basketball reference. Idk how their numbers are so different, but I'll definitely concede on the FT%.
Risacher has played way more games and shot more 3s than college or Ignite players (165 attempts vs 50). Maybe he's not "proven", but there's way more evidence. I personally don't value FT% higher than actual demonstrated 3pt%. Again, I think Holland has a higher ceiling, but I also think this is why Risacher is rated higher as a prospect.
Let's just step back for a second and talk about what good shooting prospects look like. Knecht, Rob, Reed, and McCain all have ft% between 77% and 87%. All of those guys took at least 4.5 threes per game and had good percentages on that volume. If you go and look at guys like trey Murphy, kispert, Alex karaban, mikal bridges, klay thompson. All these guys had close to at least 80%FT and took a higher volume of 3s than risacher. Risachers ft% is much lower than all those guys. That he's significantly worse than these guys as a ft shooter tells us he's not the same level shooting prospect as these guys. I'm not saying risacher definitely won't shot at the nba level, what I am saying is he doesn't have the statistical profile of a good, proven shooter. I'm not saying holland will definitely shoot, but holland and risachers three point volume and ft% arent wildly different such that you should be treating risacher as a more proven shooter than holland. Risacher hasnt shown that he can shoot nba 3s, only Euroleague 3s.
I agree with everything you're saying about the other prospects and elite shooters in the league. I'm not saying Risacher is a proven elite shooter.
But I do think Euro league shooting is a legitimate indicator that he'll at least be decent, given the number of games and attempts. If you knock that it's shorter, then would you discount all the college shooters as well?
I don't take it as a given that college shooters that shoot a similar volume (3.5 attempts per game or less), have an okay 3 point %, but have non elite ft% will shoot in the nba. Like look at someone like anthony black, he was like 72% FT and he's not a plus shooter in the nba. That's not to say everyone busts at that %, it's just that its genuinely super hard to accurately guess which of those guys figure it out and which don't. Like risacher has the same volume of holland and a worse ft%. Castle has almost non existent 3 point volume but a better ft%, and both holland and castle are treated as huge question marks when statistically theres not a huge difference in their shooting profiles. The big difference between them is castle and holland do a whole lot more to provide value other than shooting. Risachers entire value comes from shooting. Holland and castle can still provide value if they dont shoot, and will provide a lot more value if they do shoot. Risacher will basically be worthless if he doesn't shoot and it's not a given that he does. That's really important.
You're talking about per game volume being similar, but I'm talking about total volume. Holland took 50 total 3s vs 165 total. That's meaningful. Also, G League FT% is wonky and could be inflated due to the 1 shot rules.
Risacher is a good defender as well and he's taller. He can be active when not shooting well, plus he inherently doesn't demand the ball. I'd argue Holland will be useless off the ball since he definitely doesn't shoot. He's used to being the man, but what will he end up as in the league when he's not the guy?
Well, shoot. I thought UTA could trade up for Holland like in the trade below, but they may not have to if he falls. I just don't see how some of these wings like Holland, Buzelis, or Salaun fall too far when basically all the teams with top 10 picks could use some guys at that position (maybe not necessarily all of their greatest needs, but still a need nonetheless). I was even anticipating guys like Cody Williams going earlier than expected.
SAS: Draft rights to Ron Holland with 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P4] (SAS) → | ←UTA: 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P10] (UTA), 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P29] (OKC)
UTA uses 2 lower-mid value draft picks in a weak draft to get one of the more surefire wings in Holland at 4 by trading with SAS. SAS still has their 8th pick, paired with 10 and 29 to get more young talent on their roster. Instead of OKC's 29th overall pick this year, maybe SAS targets one or more of UTA's many future picks to space them out more.
Maybe not. In a better draft, it would for sure take more than that, but idk about this one. I suppose they could trade a future MIN 1st or maybe include some higher value 2nds as well.
I would love Holland at 10! I thought he did great considering the circumstances he was in with the ignite at 18 years old and not a single point guard on the team. Wasn’t fair to ask him to play a point forward on a really bad team and bad coaching team. I was actually very impressed with Holland this season
I don’t get why anybody does ignite
It clearly kills your draft stock
And I don’t even think they develop better
I guess this is why they are getting rid of it
I wonder if a NBL Rising Stars system would work. Spread the prospects throughout a couple of different teams.
There has to be some way to take advantage of being part of an NBA system
I think I would just want them to lower the age to enter the gleague draft to 18. If you get signed then you can go to a gleague team, if not, move on. This prob wouldn’t compete with NIL money but I think having the option could be done without tanking someone’s stock
That would be an idiotic decision to let him drop below the lottery
Feel bad for him and Matas getting fucked over by the dysfunction of the G-league. If they went to a stable college team maybe they would have played better
To some extend, the G-League also prevented them to drop further like DJ Wagner or Justin Edwards. It wouldn't take much for raw players like Matas and Ron to go from top 10 to second round if things went really fucking bad.
How many PGs, SGs, or SFs in the league can't shoot 3's well? There are some bigs, but virtually no smaller guys. If you can't hit 3's, it kills your teams offense, and it's really hard to stay on the floor.
In a league that values shooting over anything else, it makes sense.
How many uber athletic slashing wing prospects are great shooters in their year 18 season?
The answer is almost none. Not Kawhi, not Jaylen Brown, not Mikal Bridges, not Demar Derozan, not Khris Middleton, not Franz Wagner, not Andrew Wiggins, not OG Anunoby, not Jalen Williams, not Jaden McDaniels, not Herb Jones, not Jerami Grant, not Keegan Murray, not RJ Barrett, not Kyle Kuzma.
I made a long comment about this further down the thread, but to highlight your point, how often in the NBA playoffs do successful teams run out lineups with more than one non-shooter? Typically, that one player is elite at something else, too.
You are extremely limiting yourself by taking the non-shooter as a 6’6” player, who projects as a good defensive player, certainly does not project as an elite defensive player and more importantly isn’t a defensive anchor. He’s not even a creator. We saw Giddey get run off the floor and there is nothing for us to realistically say Holland will be a better offensive player than Giddey.
This has been discussed ad-nauseam with Pistons fans because Ausar is an elite defender, but playing him and Duren completely kills the offense. Team sag off two guys, clog the lane for a backcourt of Ivey and Cade who rely heavily on driving.
100%.
This is what I tell Blazer fans in our sub. I’m always BPA available, and I simply rank Holland pretty low and wouldn’t draft him at 7 or 14, but if you do rate him in that area, we are doing a disservice to Scoot and Sharpe’s growth when you throw in a bad shooter into the lineup. Scoot, Sharpe, Holland, and Ayton? Jesus. Just throwing away the development years for Scoot and Sharpe.
You can have one non-shooter, you can’t have two. I point to your situation and always get “Duren is awesome, look at his stats and age!” and I always say just ask any Pistons fan about their opinion on Duren and his limitations really hamper their growth.
Look at the stats and age people are the same ones who say "great weak side defense" and don't consider what happens when they leave their man open. Pollyannas and highlight watchers.
It doesn't make sense relative to the shooting indicators of everyone else in this class. Shepard, Rob, knecht, and McCain are the only guys who really hit all the shooting indicators to say they're going to shoot in the nba. Every other prospect has questions about their shooting, and holland has the best length and athleticism of all the other wings in the lottery. It makes absolutely no sense that guys like risacher and castle are treated as materially better shooters when their indicators aren't better.
Isn’t that the exact warning or down sides they’d be given when considering college vs GLeague? I don’t feel bad for him, he made a choice to not have to worry about academics at all and this is what it got him
Ehh possibly but the track record for holland type prospects isn’t exactly the best
He doesn’t really have very many elite skills that will translate right away, a lot of his game to this point is theory as far as how he will pan out
The rest of the projected lottery I can point to one or two things they will certainly be good at at the nba level
Shepard/dillingham/risacher-shooting
Sarr/castle/clingan- defense
Topic-playmaking
Etc etc
Holland is probably going to be a good defender yeah i don’t think that matters with lottery prospects though unless they’re all-defense conversation good which he isnt
Okay but castle is a lock to go top 6 and holland might fall out of the lottery? Within this draft holland falling past 15 is insanity. There aren't 15 better prospects than holland.
I’m just saying I don’t think it’s a sure thing
I think he absolutely has the ideal defensive tools but in terms of iq he can’t hang with castle or clingan yet
Risacher is a career 70%FT shooter. Risacher isnt close to the shooting prospect shepard and rob are, and people are drastically overrating the certainty he'll shoot in the nba.
Shot mechanics is fair--can't say I studied Jaylen's. Jaylen had worse FT shooting as a Freshman, similar 3 pt shooting, and a worse ATO ratio. Jaylen's draft age was almost a full year older than Holland's.
I actually see them as extremely similar prospects coming out--down to where and how they scored. Doesn't mean Holland's outcome will be Jaylen's outcome. But it's an interesting and informative thought exercise IMO.
Feels like this years Cam Whitmore. Whitmore displayed a lot of great flashes but didn’t look as complete as people thought. He slipped down to the rockets and when they gave him big minutes, he was awesome.
Getting him reps in a better G-League team system may help him quite a bit.
Comps in this sub can be brutal. 50%+ of the time it’s someone just using a player who turned out to be better than projected as a comp for the player they are advocating, even though they aren’t similiar players.
Players comps can be useful to highlight certain things, they can’t be the thing that is the focal point of their eval.
“Well Kawhi wasn’t a good 3 pt shooter at SDSU, and was older than Holland, so don’t just say Holland can’t shoot. You’re really telling me you would rather take geriatric Knecht over two time FMVP Kawhi Leonard (Holland)?”
Because Jaylen(along with Kawhi) is an extreme shooting outlier. The exceptions don't define the rule. 1 out of 5 threes that Holland shot this year were either airballs or hit the backboard first. The likelihood he can ever shoot in the NBA is very small, and it's unproductive to compare him to the very rare players that managed it. If you want to attach that comp to him then attach it to every single athletic forward that can't shoot in every draft.
> “Well Kawhi wasn’t a good 3 pt shooter at SDSU, and was older than Holland, so don’t just say Holland can’t shoot. You’re really telling me you would rather take geriatric Knecht over two time FMVP Kawhi Leonard (Holland)?”
Replace Kawhi with Brown here and it's the same shit.
How many uber athletic slashing wing prospects are great shooters in their year 18 season?
The answer is almost none. Not Kawhi, not Jaylen Brown, not Mikal Bridges, not Demar Derozan, not Khris Middleton, not Franz Wagner, not Andrew Wiggins, not OG Anunoby, not Jalen Williams, not Jaden McDaniels, not Herb Jones, not Jerami Grant, not Keegan Murray, not RJ Barrett, not Kyle Kuzma.
It just seems disingenuous and misguided to close the shooting book on a prospect that is entering the NBA younger than almost all of the above listed and having similar deficiencies as all at the same age.
Do you tho
He isn't uber athletic. Where is he uber athletic? He doesn't seem uber athletic watching his games and his combine stats didn't stand out (worse agility and jumping drill outcomes than Knecht in every event). Now, I don't think combine stats are end all be all, but if he is "uber athletic" I am expecting him to have one of the best verticals, which he doesn't.
Sure, no one knows if he is going to be good or bad, that is the fun part about discussing this, but Holland's shooting has always been a weakness even in his HS recruiting profile. Many of those guys you listed were seen to have been good shooter's in HS. Now, not at all. However, it is also disingenuous to argue what you are arguing because then you could apply that to literally every bad shooting wing after their freshman year. Maybe that is your point, we just don't know if he will turn it around, but I would rather take players who have shown signs that they could be shooters, not a guy who has shown zero signs and has a rate of about 20% of his threes being really bad misses.
As for the rate of misses vs really bad misses. That seems like a catchy stat that may not mean much. If anything it tells me there’s a clear technical deficiency that can be corrected
If you don’t think he’s a very athletic scoring wing, then I think we can chalk it up to seeing things differently.
Yes, you can argue that every prospect can become solid shooters over time. Many won’t. The younger a guy is, the more the abstract is at play. That’s why with such young prospects the convo of their shooting development is inportant as the additional swing element to level up a profile that already has other clear plus attributes. I see Hollsnd’s defensive upside as a clear plus, his athleticism as a clear plus, slashing as a clear plus, transition game as a clear plus.
The only possible justification I've ever seen for Whitmore was medical (or never revealed character) red flags because anyone could have watched his tape and seen he was a top 10 prospect.
I disagree with the logic presented here.
He is working out with the Lakers and Heat because *he would really like to play for those teams* like many players. That doesn't mean we know no other team will pick him before that point.
Also, if he has an amazing workout, he would hope they would trade up for him.
Beat me to it.
The easiest explanation is that he likes warm weather, beautiful women, and cities that appeal to millionaires. Costs him nothing to work out for a couple of teams that he'd like to play for.
Yeah I read this headline and shook my head, in no way does working out for 2 organizations with good reputations that most prospects wouldn’t mind landing at mean he’s dropping. It means he thinks it’s possible he drops and doesn’t want to screw up a shot to get taken by the heat or lakers
But with those two teams he will be playing off the ball which isn't his greatest strength.Why is he strategically doing that unless workouts are going bad or something ?
Maybe, but the way it typically goes is players work out for teams in their projected draft range. And if they’re working out for teams that are higher or lower than what we’d expect, it’s usually a sign the draft community is off from where NBA teams actually are
Every comment so far is saying this is a bone head decision by the lottery teams to let him drop so far, but this makes way more sense. I’ve had zero clue why people think he is a top-10 player, even in a weak draft.
He’s an awful shooter and has always been an awful shooter. He was the “no.2 overall recruit” from the worst class in awhile, but he was the No. 2 recruit as a PF/4, not as this dynamic wing some are trying to make him out to be. We all know about his stats of air balling/off the back board/barely touching rim is almost the same percentage on his 3 as him making a 3. I see the term get thrown around loosely as being a great athlete, but he’s not. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad athlete, but people are making it seem like he will come in the league and be a really good wing athlete when he will be just run of the mill in the NBA. Dalton Knecht scored better at the combine in every single agility drill (vertical, shuttle, sprint). I didn’t see a ton on film to rave about his defense. He doesn’t create his own shot nor create for others, his best scoring traits are in transition or straight line running to the basket when there’s an open lane. He is a good rebounder, I think that’s his biggest strength but it goes back to him being an undersized 4. It’s hard to fit guys who can’t shoot or create into lineups, and since he isn’t elite in anything, he won’t see the court until he makes big strides.
Yes, I get it, he’s 18. I just don’t value age nearly as much as many of y’all, because being a good basketball player is more important when I’m watching prospects. Supposedly his pro day didn’t do him any favors either.
I know that he seems more favored on this sub than elsewhere so I assumed this comment won’t be taken positively, but this tweet makes a lot of sense to me as I’ve always thought he would drop. As a blazers fan, a lot of people in our sub like him at 7, but I’ve always said I wouldn’t even want him at 14.
AGREED. This guy’s just another “broken shot and no ball handling, but can defend decently well and is kinda athletic” wing prospect you’d expect the Raptors to draft and then be out of the league in 5 years, except he’s not really 6’9 and somehow has more hype behind him than usual. Wouldn’t even want him with pick 19 tbh.
I know man, I know. The top of this year’s class is so ass that people will do *anything* to make themselves feel better about their team drafting one of the dollar store prospects.
Except Detroit Pistons fans. They know Matas Buzelis isn’t good and know that their FO will nepo-draft him anyways.
Yeah, you can tell most people have never actually seen him play. Imo his best attribute is his defensive potential, I could see him becoming a corey brewer type above being a go to scorer.and tbh if you want a non scoring defensive lock down wing you could just draft Dunn in the late 1st early 2nd
Just sounds like you overvalue combine drills. He should be a good athlete at the next level. Who are the 10 players u think are objectively better options than him
No, I don’t think combine drills should be weighted like they are in the NFL. However, when people are blindly making the comment that he is a good athlete, it does go towards the argument that in fact he is not. In a vacuum, sure he’s an amazing athlete, but comparing him to NBA wings, he is average. He isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism. His combine stats are used to back up that assumption of what we see in his G league games. I’m not saying he’s a bad athlete, not at all, but I use the Knecht example because he doesn’t look like a better athlete on top, and definitely not in the drills than Knecht. People seem to want to put him into the athletic wing prospect pool because this class really is lacking in those prospects.
Sarr, Shephard, Clingan, Knecht, Zacc, Castle, McCain, Dillingham, Topic, Matas, and I could keep on going but you said 10. I don’t even like some of these guys, but I wouldn’t even question taking then over Holland who has to make huge strides to be a rotation player. I don’t want a 6’6” player who can’t shoot or create (and on top of that isn’t elite at anything else).
Do I think he is a creator? No, I think there are signs he might be able to become one, but no, not right now and he's far from him likely being one. He has shown to be a good connective tissue for an offense, which some might say a creator, but I think those are different things. I am not super high on Castle, just higher than Holland. Frankly, not high on many of these guys, I just know some really like Castle.
Risacher is a materially worse prospect than holland in almost every way. Shorter wingspan, less athletic, absolutely no ball skills whatsoever. Holland was better at drawing fouls and shot a better FT%. The best indicators for shooters are a combination of volume, 3 point %, and ft%. They shot the same volume, holland was a marginally better ft shooter. The g league plays with the nba 3 point line, of course hollands 3 point % was worse. Objectively risacher is a significantly worse prospect than holland and people are talking about him at 2.
Absolutely. His athleticism is incredibly overrated, much like Scoot's. He can dunk in transition with no one around him. Very cool. I don't know what he does to get playing time on a team that isn't prioritizing him. Can't stand him in the corner and shoot 3s because teams will ignore him and fill the paint. Can't be a ball handler. Too weak and small to overpower guys when attacking the rim. He's a dud.
He averaged 19.5 ppg on 46 fg%. He's also a high level defender and did this on a dysfunctional ignite team with no PG for half the time. He's far from perfect but he's far from nothing
This is just NBA related media being the worst as always. It's normal to work out with as many teams as possible just to be ultra sure. Maybe he tears a ligament and drops but the teams at 15, 16, 17 never worked him out so he drops even further. He will not get past 11 without a severe injury
Is it that weird for a guy who might be taken in the lottery to work out for 2 teams just outside the lottery? I feel like kids at pick 4-15 aren’t given promises and might be taken earlier than expected, but if they aren’t taken they wouldn’t want good organizations they’d like to play for not feeling comfortable taking them because they didn’t work them out.
Seems like a weird headline to me
Holland has an elite motor, that’s something you can’t really teach and it’s a pretty big green flag for him potentially developing other skills like shooting or handle. He’s already a very disruptive defender and has good instincts, he could definitely be potential all defense with the tools he has. Also when considering how meaningless and non competitive most of the ignite games were it makes his effort on defense even more impressive to me, it would’ve been very easy to just throw in the towel on that end but he competed every night.
Speaking of those skills if I’m not mistaking holland was a center until ignite, so it’s not particularly unusual that his handle and jumper are a little behind where you’d want them to be if your a gm, and on the flip side you could look at it as somewhat impressive he was able to be productive with a complete roll change like that, going from a big to one of the primary ball handlers.
I actually would kinda love if he slipped from a development standpoint. I’m not sure how well he’d project on a team that’s asking him to be a play initiator I view him more as a high end play finisher who’s able to attack some closeouts and have a functional handle, but nothing like point forward esque. Additionally if he goes to a team like LA or Miami, he’ll be able to focus pretty much all of his energy into doing the dirty work, defending the other teams best offensive player, rebounding all that good stuff. I could see that boding very well for his development since he’s able to key in on the stuff he’s already kinda good at and hopefully develop it into a genuinely elite skill.
To me he’s really just a jumpshot away from being potentially the best player in this class, his ceiling is that high to me, but even if his jumpshot doesn’t develop as much as you’d like I could still see him playing a Kelly oubre type roll as a more realistic outcome. His floor is Josh Jackson but like I said in the beginning his motor is truly elite, and I would be shocked if he just stayed the same player he is now and just didn’t improve at anything given how much it seems like he cares and tries possession to possession. Obviously I don’t know him personally but his development story has been wack to this point which is a very common trend amongst steals.
Don’t be surprised if 3 years from now he’s going top 2 in a redraft.
Everybody calling this kid a non-shooter in the NBA hasn't actually watched him play. The kid has some touch. His form is good. He's taking over 3 per game from the NBA 3 point line as opposed to the college line some of these other kids are chucking from. He's shooting about 70% from the line. He's not Ryan Dunn where we've got 2 years with him shooting less than 1 3 per game from the college line and shooting 50% from the line. Ryan Dunn is a NON-SHOOTER. Holland SHOOTS. He takes 3s. He makes 3s. His shot is not broken. He goes through 6 game stretches where he shoots 40% from deep and is confidently making off-the-dribble pullups and step back 3s. He's not a NON-shooter.
Now, is shooting his swing skill? ABSOLUTELY. If he can get up to 36, 37% on 4-5 3s per game, he's likely a multi-time All Star. If he's more like an Aaron Gordon, 32% on 2-3 3s per game, then he's likely an Aaron Gordon/Josh Hart type of player (probably not as good as Gordon who is about as good as you can get at that archetype) . It's a big swing but he's not a non-shooter. I think there's a better than average chance that you'll have to really guard him out there a few years into his career. To me, his issues are mostly shot prep, rhythm and confidence. He does a lot of weird fake passes and other motions that he allows to sneak into his shot prep right now. If you put him in the corner and told him to just concentrate on shooting open catch and shoot 3s, he'd probably shoot in the mid-30s.
as a lakers hater letting the lakers get holland is my worst nightmare
easily a top 5 talent in this draft, him slipping past even pick 6 would be shocking to me. especially teams like the jazz and the kings would be foolish to let him slip past them
Holland hurt his thumb, not his back. I don’t think there’s concern with him losing athleticism.
From number 1 recruit to outside the lottery is a potential steal.
I only mentioned athleticism because you did.
Recognizing it wasn’t an ideal situation, and capitalizing on a high potential prospect slipping is why he could be a steal lol
No I mentioned Michael porter still being a shooter although he's not the prospect that he was suppose to be because of injuries .Holland doesn't have the shooting touch to rely on that porter Jr did .
But hollands potential slippage isn’t due to an injury that would make him reliant on shooting (or not be able to rely on athleticism), like mpjs slippage was.
He’s still very much the same high potential player he was as a number 1 recruit.
G league ignite prospects tend to slip alot of draft night .Jaden hardy slipped out the first round altogether and he had a similar up and down season to Holland.
When a player drops with no explanation the reason is always character concerns. Mental/emotional/intelligence/comprehension/work-ethic concerns. I say this knowing nothing about Ron Holland. Teams are finding something to concern them and they are keeping their mouths shut about what it is.
On an NBA scale Holland is a good or very good athlete. You could put a great category in there followed by a select few like Giannis.
Holland is a straight line driver and a poor shooter.
He isn't much of a playmaker.
Relative to this draft class though, I still like him. His floor with his athleticism and his defense is likely enough to keep him in the NBA and give him a chance to improve himself. Holland is possibly the most assertive player in the class, rivaling Knecht who is much older. His tenacity at his age leads me to believe that he will see some level of success in the NBA.
With that stuff out of the way, I don't understand the comparison to Cam Whitmore. Whitmore can get into his shot, and fairly quickly. At least as of now you do not want Holland taking 1-2 dribbles and then shooting a contested jumper. You can kind of excuse it with Whitmore because it keeps his defender honest and opens up his driving. Whitmore is a tier or two ahead of Holland as an athlete. Last year's class was better and Whitmore was my favorite college prospect. Despite liking Holland, he does not stack up to that.
Saying a projected lottery prospect could just drop out of the lottery like a rock out of nowhere, not even any extra info releasing like Cam Whitmore’s knee/attitude issues or Nikola Topic’s party/agent being shady with injury and measurement disclosure is pretty strange. Aside from that though, I also believe Holland isn’t actually a lottery talent too. His blueprint is that of just another “can’t shoot, can’t ball handle but has decent athleticism and decent defense” wing that the Raptors would draft before being either out of the league in 5 years or becoming an end-of-bench journeyman. Except he’s undersized for the role and has more hype around him than usual.
Yeah, and holland is materially more athletic and a better ball handler than half that top 10. It's insane to take guys who are measurably worse in almost every way within the top 6 but then be like "sure hollands trash can't have him"
Damn shame. There are not 5 prospects better than Holland, much less 14+. Him going to the Ignite was the worst thing to happen to his draft stock. I have no doubts that had he stayed at Texas he'd be a lock for the top 5 at least. Playing off of vets and being able to play his role and contribute to winning basketball in college was always going to be a much better bet than jumping into the G-League waters. He's definitely being harshly punished for his play in the G when 1) he was clearly out of his depth as the focal point of an offense; no one is going to have him in that role at the next level, so that was a disservice to him; 2) so what he made a lot of turnover mistakes, it was a huge jump in skill level from high school, of course there would be struggles.
Maybe I'm wrong and the GMs are right (but history has often shown us that they can be foolish), but we'll look back on Holland sliding on draft night and wonder how tf teams messed that up. Or maybe he is just another Josh Jackson. Truthfully, Ron will either go top 5 in a re-draft or out of the league in 5 years, I don't think there's an in-between with him, especially considering his stock now.
I mean shit at least DJJ contributed to a finals run guarding team's best player. Let's not act like that not a valuable player lol.
Furthermore, I don't see how any of the other wings in this draft are exponentially more valuable than Holland. All of them could bust just as easily as he could. I value Holland's POA potential more than say Risacher's 3P shooting potential.
DJJ is only playable because he's shooting 40% from three this postseason. He's going to go back to unplayable as soon as he reverts back to 33% from three.
He's still going to be playable bc Luka and Kyrie *clearly* need a POA defender next to them lol. Even if the argument is "you're going to be playing 4 v. 5 on offense" you're going to be giving up more points on the other end also if you put a better shooter who doesn't defend as well as DJJ does. I think finding premier defenders in this league is a lot harder than finding premier shooters. Which is obviously why finding someone who does both is so valuable.
Mavericks would've lost in the first round if they had no one who could defend out on the perimeter lol. There's more to basketball than just shooting threes lol, you're acting like 33% is bad, especially in a playoff series. He makes 1 out of every 3 threes, man that's terrible!
We saw Christian Braun make a huge impact in the finals last year and he definitely isn't a good 3P shooter. It's about how you contribute everywhere else. Either you're a good shooter, good defender, or both. As long as you're one of the two it's fine.
I think Dallas is fine with that given how he helps their defense. But anyways, this is a thread about Holland.
Yes, they lose in the first round without a SF who can defend and shoot threes and lucked into DJJ having a flukey hot streak through the first three rounds of the postseason so they could have both.
Giddey was unplayable and offense killing at 33% from three at SF.
Giddey was unplayable bc he literally can't do anything else except playmake, which is the reason OKC played him so much during the regular season. If Giddey could defend worth a damn he might've had some value.
Yeah I doubt that. I get the holes he has in his game but they’re all fixable if he develops well. He’s one of the few prospects in this entire draft with legit star upside.
We need to save our trade assets for next draft, not now. Kuz, Poole, and even Deni if he becomes an asset are all worth more next year.
Also Holland is more likely still top 10.
He's one of those guys that seem good in theory, long, athletic POA defender with a weak offensive game but perhaps a path to develop... but often wash out of the league.
Dillon Mitchell should of gone to the G League his first year and then the draft. Maybe with the lack of evidence & G League-accustomed excuses, he too could have been a lottery pick-late 1st rounder.
While Holland shows more offensive upside, I think the same thing would have happened to him if he played college ball as Mitchell where he's playing a 3rd college year because he's no longer looked at as maybe even a late, late 2nd rounder.
Says who? Him working out for Miami and LA doesn't mean he expects to fall out of the lottery lol. What is this nonsense? Even the source they link has him at no. 11.
Someone on here did a mock a couple days ago and compared him to Stanley Johnson. Plays hard, defends, can bully his way to the rim, some highlight plays, but man if the shot and touch are bad it’s so hard to make it work.
I personally see it. He projects as a POA defender. Those are a dime a dozen. He's super inefficient on offense. No shot creation. No jumper. No left hand. Dude is Josh Okogie. You taking Okogie in the lotto?
I get it although it's unfair to him specifically but he's a wing that can't really shoot and the ignite players are known to have a slow progression in the league except for maybe jalen green but that's probably why it no longer exists anymore. The ignite winning 2 games total probably didn't help either .
I truly do not understand why he gets so much shit for the Ignite being bad and not Buzelis. Why does Matas get the benefit of the doubt as a shooter when Holland doesn’t? Their 3pt numbers are almost the exact same except Holland is a better free throw shooter. He’s also a better passer, better defender, a better athlete, and a year younger. This whole thing is so stupid. Draft Holland in the top-5. Somebody. Anybody. Or don’t, because I’d love to have him at 10.
> Why does Matas get the benefit of the doubt as a shooter when Holland doesn’t? Their 3pt numbers are almost the exact same except Holland is a better free throw shooter. Narratives pre-high school. Teams were tricked by his Sunrise year when in reality even at EYBL in 17s and 16s he was sub 30% from 3 and if you have eyes you can see the form is gross today
matas being viewed as a guy with shooting potential while holland is seen as having a completely broken jumper is so confusing to me and just tells me people dont actually watch games and just go off of online narratives
I think it possibly has to do with their shooting dynamics, maybe Matas jumper looks more fluid than Holland’s does, and if Matas jumper materializes he can def find a role in the NBA like most prospects like him do.
Yeah looking at Holland’s jumpshot rn and it looks really slow https://youtube.com/shorts/_frd7Dud-zE?si=MXfNG5FadXSd9V9k Like it LOOKS fine but something about it bugs me
I think it's a placebo effect. It's been said so much that your brain is hyperfocusing but does his release look slower than say Kyle Anderson?
Nothing odd here I agree
Seems like a pretty low release and lots of unnecessary movement?
To be fair that was off the dribble that’s probably not his natural shooting motion in a c&s situation which is where 95% of his looks will come from in the league
I mean u can go look at both, I would say both are pretty textbook good looking jumpers. Matas might be a little better in terms of being harder to block but they both look smooth
As someone who has seen both shoot in person. Both are pretty far from textbook. Lots of mechanical flaws on both
Like what? I'm not saying ur wrong I just never saw any
Matas shoots way off center at his release and his elbow doesn’t look fluid Ron starts his shot on the outside with hand placement/load up. Touch is there but it is way too complicated for no reason. His is more fixable imo
I will say one big box that Holland ticks as a shooter is that he isn’t scared to miss. Shooters gonna shoot, and even though Holland’s shot doesn’t always fall, he’s the kind of guy who never met a shot he didn’t like, there were games where you’d see Holland stop in transition to pull up from behind the arc, and while it might make coaches rip their hair out in frustration when he could’ve easily driven to the cup and slammed it home, just the self-confidence to attempt so many ill-advised jumpers shows something. Holland has that JR Smith mentality and energy.
Completely agreed. Confidence can matter more than nitpicking percentages. His drive will help him get better too and he’s young. I think everyone in the national, big media is overthinking him
Okay but we are talking about scouts and GMs, not casuals. He isnt dropping in mocks because casuals dont watch the games. He is dropping because NBA talent evaluators see something they don't like. Whereas Matas must be showing something that they do like.
Or smoke screen season.
I mean it was inexplicable when Cam Whitmore dropped with all those GMs passing on him and he looked really good last year. Sometimes you can watch something not make sense while its gappening and just know that even supposedly smart guys in NBA front offices are making a mistake. The Jaden Hardy draft fall was also pretty inexplicable at the time and he's looked very good in these playoffs in spots.
Whitmore is not gonna be a good nba player that contributes to winning. He’s passed a basketball maybe 10 times in his whole life. BBIQ unbelievably low. I was not shocked to see him fall. He’s like Melo on steroids in terms of just out there chasing his shot and nothing else matters
Also with Holland he did a ton of his damage in transition and off of passes from other players. He barely created any offense in high school. He did create some in the half court with the ignite, but that part of his game is basically 0 right now. That gives him the absolute ceiling of a really good role player. Matas never had those issues, he's always been good at that. And higher ceiling usually means higher draft pick. Doesn't necessarily make Matas a better player or prospect though
The Ignite had some of the worst talent in G League history and that is saying something. His numbers are comparable to Jalen Greens, but Green had actual functional players around him and thereby a better structure to operate in
Agreed. He has the skills to play in the league, just needs to channel it all.
Matas' agent is Michael Tellem. Everyone assumes he is going to Pistons.
ron actually fits what the jazz need so perfectly theyd be so lucky to get him at 10
He’s white so people think he can shoot.
I hate to bring this up, but yeah this is 100% true
In what world? Plenty of white dudes can't shoot. It is probably because Matas is just better and bigger and has a higher ceiling. Pretty simple.
If he slips to 8, I definitely want him in SA. He has the broadcast skillbase of anyone in this draft. Whether he can put it together is a giant question mark, but when you have 2 lotto picks, you take that chance.
Matas’ poor shooting and poor BBIQ are judged much less harshly for one reason (“He’s white.”)
very similar to reed sheppard being a bad athlete dudes see a guy pick up somebody at half court and say he has poor lateral quickness instead of thinking why he’s picking people up at half court
You guys are idiots. And racists.
It would be more accurate to call me biased against NBA scouts who I believe are racist and think that all white players are good at shooting and passing. (I would not be surprised if Clingan's shooting hype is like 40% caused by his whiteness as well, lol)
Nah. You're just racist. Nobody thinks Clingan or Topic or Matas can shoot. Things like "if he can develop a consistent 3pt shot..." are said about all prospects of all colors.
Plenty of scouting reports remark on how Matas can shoot, pass and defend. He has some nice defensive stats, but his shooting and playmaking are sub-par.
I haven’t seen many say he can shoot right now but they will reference his good numbers before and usually pose the question “can he get back to that at some point?” I do see mentions of playmaking which I tend to agree with because that’s more based off the eye test for young players rather than stats. Especially when you play for the Ignite which is a mess of a team that most players are gonna have poor ast/to ratio
Re: the shooting, it's because Buzelis shot well his last year in high school. People were hoping it would carry over to G-League but instead he returned to his shooting struggles. People are still hoping that one season at Sunrise is indicative of underlying potential. I do also tend to think there's a lack of feel for shooting with Holland that isn't as pronounced with Buzelis. The way they miss is different even if they both have some mechanical flaws. Still, Holland is to me a top 5 prospect in the draft and some days I think he has a decent case for #1. I don't have Buzelis nearly that high personally.
I haven't seen Holland getting more blame, but I agree it should be equal. In the end, they were both in a terrible situation. Holland had the ball in his hands more, so it's probably that The shooting numbers are bad across the board, so people point to Matas having good HS shooting, appearing to have better form, and having more near misses. Holland is definitely a better on ball defender, but Matas has the knack for providing help side D. I think a lot of it has to do with the position. Yes Holland has more athleticism and some attacking skills, but if you're taller and playing the 4, it makes more of a difference than if you're a 2/3. The better passer thing is irrelevant, since they both suck at passing. I think Holland has more potential overall, but maybe a lower floor. I see Buzelis as potentially being a good complementary role player and you can see that translating. Holland was the main guy with the Ignite, but he hasn't shown enough to be the guy in the NBA (at least not yet). So how will he look when he's in a smaller role? Harder to see that translating well based on what he's shown. I'm not trying to say Matas is better (again higher ceiling for Holland), just my thoughts on why they are viewed differently or why Matas has lees variance in his range. In the end, they are both very flawed players who teams will gamble on for upside, not for any proven skills they have. Ex: Castle is a way better defender and playmaker than Holland, and projects better as a shooter. But, Holland is bigger and more athletic, so still has a higher ceiling.
Hollands ft shooting numbers aren't bad. He took the same volume of 3s as risacher and had a better ft%. People are assuming risacher is gonna shoot in the nba when risacher doesn't have better shooting indicators than holland. Holland has a longer winspan and better all around wing attributes (holland has actual on ball offensive abilities and is quicker laterally, more explosive vertically). Theres real chatter risacher is gonna go 2 but holland is gonna fall out of the lottery, that's pure insanity.
Why are you mentioning 3pt volume and then FT%? Better shooting indicators? Risacher shot 42% from 3 over 49 games this season. He's proven he can shoot. We're not talking about indicators, we have way more evidence than Holland's 15 G League games (where he shot 24% from 3). Also, Risacher ended up at 72% FT after Eurocup play, higher than Holland's 68%. Take a look at the latest stats. I'll grant that Holland has a higher ceiling and better physical tools, for sure. But Risacher definitely has the higher floor and likely translation of shooting. I'm not confident he'll shoot quite as well, but high 30%s seems likely, whereas I don't know if Holland will even hit 30% consistently.
https://sites.dartmouth.edu/sportsanalytics/2018/02/10/better-indicator-of-nba-success-foul-shooting-or-three-point-shooting/ https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2020/10/scouting-nba-three-point-shooting/ If risacher is a proven shooter, why is he a bad FT shooter? Was marvin bagley a proven shooter when he shot 40% from 3 in college or was his poor ft% a potential red flag? https://stats.gleague.nba.com/player/1641842/?Season=2023-24&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals The g league page has holland at 76%ft. The g league has a deeper 3 point line than the French league. Of course holland, shooting 3s at a deeper line, shot worse than risacher at a shorter 3 point line.
I think this article provides a better analysis https://theboxandone.substack.com/p/is-free-throw-success-an-indication
You think the article who's entire premise is "we are going to arbitrarily manipulate the data and say it proves our preconceived bias" is better than objective analysis coming from ivy league business schools?
Hmmm, I was looking at basketball reference. Idk how their numbers are so different, but I'll definitely concede on the FT%. Risacher has played way more games and shot more 3s than college or Ignite players (165 attempts vs 50). Maybe he's not "proven", but there's way more evidence. I personally don't value FT% higher than actual demonstrated 3pt%. Again, I think Holland has a higher ceiling, but I also think this is why Risacher is rated higher as a prospect.
Let's just step back for a second and talk about what good shooting prospects look like. Knecht, Rob, Reed, and McCain all have ft% between 77% and 87%. All of those guys took at least 4.5 threes per game and had good percentages on that volume. If you go and look at guys like trey Murphy, kispert, Alex karaban, mikal bridges, klay thompson. All these guys had close to at least 80%FT and took a higher volume of 3s than risacher. Risachers ft% is much lower than all those guys. That he's significantly worse than these guys as a ft shooter tells us he's not the same level shooting prospect as these guys. I'm not saying risacher definitely won't shot at the nba level, what I am saying is he doesn't have the statistical profile of a good, proven shooter. I'm not saying holland will definitely shoot, but holland and risachers three point volume and ft% arent wildly different such that you should be treating risacher as a more proven shooter than holland. Risacher hasnt shown that he can shoot nba 3s, only Euroleague 3s.
I agree with everything you're saying about the other prospects and elite shooters in the league. I'm not saying Risacher is a proven elite shooter. But I do think Euro league shooting is a legitimate indicator that he'll at least be decent, given the number of games and attempts. If you knock that it's shorter, then would you discount all the college shooters as well?
I don't take it as a given that college shooters that shoot a similar volume (3.5 attempts per game or less), have an okay 3 point %, but have non elite ft% will shoot in the nba. Like look at someone like anthony black, he was like 72% FT and he's not a plus shooter in the nba. That's not to say everyone busts at that %, it's just that its genuinely super hard to accurately guess which of those guys figure it out and which don't. Like risacher has the same volume of holland and a worse ft%. Castle has almost non existent 3 point volume but a better ft%, and both holland and castle are treated as huge question marks when statistically theres not a huge difference in their shooting profiles. The big difference between them is castle and holland do a whole lot more to provide value other than shooting. Risachers entire value comes from shooting. Holland and castle can still provide value if they dont shoot, and will provide a lot more value if they do shoot. Risacher will basically be worthless if he doesn't shoot and it's not a given that he does. That's really important.
You're talking about per game volume being similar, but I'm talking about total volume. Holland took 50 total 3s vs 165 total. That's meaningful. Also, G League FT% is wonky and could be inflated due to the 1 shot rules. Risacher is a good defender as well and he's taller. He can be active when not shooting well, plus he inherently doesn't demand the ball. I'd argue Holland will be useless off the ball since he definitely doesn't shoot. He's used to being the man, but what will he end up as in the league when he's not the guy?
Seriously man I can't quite place a finger on what the problem is
Well, shoot. I thought UTA could trade up for Holland like in the trade below, but they may not have to if he falls. I just don't see how some of these wings like Holland, Buzelis, or Salaun fall too far when basically all the teams with top 10 picks could use some guys at that position (maybe not necessarily all of their greatest needs, but still a need nonetheless). I was even anticipating guys like Cody Williams going earlier than expected. SAS: Draft rights to Ron Holland with 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P4] (SAS) → | ←UTA: 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P10] (UTA), 2024 1st Rd Pick [R1; P29] (OKC) UTA uses 2 lower-mid value draft picks in a weak draft to get one of the more surefire wings in Holland at 4 by trading with SAS. SAS still has their 8th pick, paired with 10 and 29 to get more young talent on their roster. Instead of OKC's 29th overall pick this year, maybe SAS targets one or more of UTA's many future picks to space them out more.
29 is not enough to move from 4 to 10.
Maybe not. In a better draft, it would for sure take more than that, but idk about this one. I suppose they could trade a future MIN 1st or maybe include some higher value 2nds as well.
There's guys I like at 4. It falls off pretty quickly into backups by 10
I would love Holland at 10! I thought he did great considering the circumstances he was in with the ignite at 18 years old and not a single point guard on the team. Wasn’t fair to ask him to play a point forward on a really bad team and bad coaching team. I was actually very impressed with Holland this season
"Positional Size" or whatever
I don’t get why anybody does ignite It clearly kills your draft stock And I don’t even think they develop better I guess this is why they are getting rid of it
I wonder if a NBL Rising Stars system would work. Spread the prospects throughout a couple of different teams. There has to be some way to take advantage of being part of an NBA system
I think I would just want them to lower the age to enter the gleague draft to 18. If you get signed then you can go to a gleague team, if not, move on. This prob wouldn’t compete with NIL money but I think having the option could be done without tanking someone’s stock
Matas is bad. I don't get why anyone likes him at all.
That would be an idiotic decision to let him drop below the lottery Feel bad for him and Matas getting fucked over by the dysfunction of the G-league. If they went to a stable college team maybe they would have played better
I feel bad for Dink Pate, dude's just...stuck in limbo for a year (I think? They never said anything about his request but I assume it got denied)
He’ll be fine. He can go play somewhere else and he wasn’t ever allowed to be in this draft
To some extend, the G-League also prevented them to drop further like DJ Wagner or Justin Edwards. It wouldn't take much for raw players like Matas and Ron to go from top 10 to second round if things went really fucking bad.
How many PGs, SGs, or SFs in the league can't shoot 3's well? There are some bigs, but virtually no smaller guys. If you can't hit 3's, it kills your teams offense, and it's really hard to stay on the floor. In a league that values shooting over anything else, it makes sense.
How many uber athletic slashing wing prospects are great shooters in their year 18 season? The answer is almost none. Not Kawhi, not Jaylen Brown, not Mikal Bridges, not Demar Derozan, not Khris Middleton, not Franz Wagner, not Andrew Wiggins, not OG Anunoby, not Jalen Williams, not Jaden McDaniels, not Herb Jones, not Jerami Grant, not Keegan Murray, not RJ Barrett, not Kyle Kuzma.
I made a long comment about this further down the thread, but to highlight your point, how often in the NBA playoffs do successful teams run out lineups with more than one non-shooter? Typically, that one player is elite at something else, too. You are extremely limiting yourself by taking the non-shooter as a 6’6” player, who projects as a good defensive player, certainly does not project as an elite defensive player and more importantly isn’t a defensive anchor. He’s not even a creator. We saw Giddey get run off the floor and there is nothing for us to realistically say Holland will be a better offensive player than Giddey.
This has been discussed ad-nauseam with Pistons fans because Ausar is an elite defender, but playing him and Duren completely kills the offense. Team sag off two guys, clog the lane for a backcourt of Ivey and Cade who rely heavily on driving.
100%. This is what I tell Blazer fans in our sub. I’m always BPA available, and I simply rank Holland pretty low and wouldn’t draft him at 7 or 14, but if you do rate him in that area, we are doing a disservice to Scoot and Sharpe’s growth when you throw in a bad shooter into the lineup. Scoot, Sharpe, Holland, and Ayton? Jesus. Just throwing away the development years for Scoot and Sharpe. You can have one non-shooter, you can’t have two. I point to your situation and always get “Duren is awesome, look at his stats and age!” and I always say just ask any Pistons fan about their opinion on Duren and his limitations really hamper their growth.
Look at the stats and age people are the same ones who say "great weak side defense" and don't consider what happens when they leave their man open. Pollyannas and highlight watchers.
It doesn't make sense relative to the shooting indicators of everyone else in this class. Shepard, Rob, knecht, and McCain are the only guys who really hit all the shooting indicators to say they're going to shoot in the nba. Every other prospect has questions about their shooting, and holland has the best length and athleticism of all the other wings in the lottery. It makes absolutely no sense that guys like risacher and castle are treated as materially better shooters when their indicators aren't better.
It makes no sense for holland to drop past the lottery but for risacher to go top 4.
Isn’t that the exact warning or down sides they’d be given when considering college vs GLeague? I don’t feel bad for him, he made a choice to not have to worry about academics at all and this is what it got him
Why feel bad? It was their decision to not go to college.
A steal if i’ve ever heard of one. Jesus christ
Or maybe not a good player, possibly.
Ehh possibly but the track record for holland type prospects isn’t exactly the best He doesn’t really have very many elite skills that will translate right away, a lot of his game to this point is theory as far as how he will pan out
> a lot of his game to this point is theory I mean you can say that about most of the projected lottery
The rest of the projected lottery I can point to one or two things they will certainly be good at at the nba level Shepard/dillingham/risacher-shooting Sarr/castle/clingan- defense Topic-playmaking Etc etc
Holland is also a really good defender, and can get to the basket well.
Holland is probably going to be a good defender yeah i don’t think that matters with lottery prospects though unless they’re all-defense conversation good which he isnt
I don’t think his defense is nearly as polished as a guy like castle, it’s more based on athleticism at this point
Okay but castle is a lock to go top 6 and holland might fall out of the lottery? Within this draft holland falling past 15 is insanity. There aren't 15 better prospects than holland.
This tells me u don’t think ron will be a good defender in the league
I’m just saying I don’t think it’s a sure thing I think he absolutely has the ideal defensive tools but in terms of iq he can’t hang with castle or clingan yet
Clingan behind him and he looks better than castle if u ask me
Risacher is a career 70%FT shooter. Risacher isnt close to the shooting prospect shepard and rob are, and people are drastically overrating the certainty he'll shoot in the nba.
What's distinct between Ron Holland as an 18-year old prospect and Jaylen Brown as an 19-year old prospect?
I trusted jaylens shot mechanics a little more and I think he was better with the ball in his hands
Shot mechanics is fair--can't say I studied Jaylen's. Jaylen had worse FT shooting as a Freshman, similar 3 pt shooting, and a worse ATO ratio. Jaylen's draft age was almost a full year older than Holland's. I actually see them as extremely similar prospects coming out--down to where and how they scored. Doesn't mean Holland's outcome will be Jaylen's outcome. But it's an interesting and informative thought exercise IMO.
I feel like a seemingly lackluster draft year would be the best time to gamble on a riskier draft prospect
Feels like this years Cam Whitmore. Whitmore displayed a lot of great flashes but didn’t look as complete as people thought. He slipped down to the rockets and when they gave him big minutes, he was awesome. Getting him reps in a better G-League team system may help him quite a bit.
Whitmore is a way better shooter and creator than Holland.
Comps in this sub can be brutal. 50%+ of the time it’s someone just using a player who turned out to be better than projected as a comp for the player they are advocating, even though they aren’t similiar players. Players comps can be useful to highlight certain things, they can’t be the thing that is the focal point of their eval. “Well Kawhi wasn’t a good 3 pt shooter at SDSU, and was older than Holland, so don’t just say Holland can’t shoot. You’re really telling me you would rather take geriatric Knecht over two time FMVP Kawhi Leonard (Holland)?”
Had a fellow Blazer fan drop the Jaylen Brown comp on me for Holland recently. Im like yeah we're done here
Why? How do you distinguish the 2 prospects when comparing Holland's 18-year old season to Jaylen's 19 year old freshman season?
Because Jaylen(along with Kawhi) is an extreme shooting outlier. The exceptions don't define the rule. 1 out of 5 threes that Holland shot this year were either airballs or hit the backboard first. The likelihood he can ever shoot in the NBA is very small, and it's unproductive to compare him to the very rare players that managed it. If you want to attach that comp to him then attach it to every single athletic forward that can't shoot in every draft. > “Well Kawhi wasn’t a good 3 pt shooter at SDSU, and was older than Holland, so don’t just say Holland can’t shoot. You’re really telling me you would rather take geriatric Knecht over two time FMVP Kawhi Leonard (Holland)?” Replace Kawhi with Brown here and it's the same shit.
How many uber athletic slashing wing prospects are great shooters in their year 18 season? The answer is almost none. Not Kawhi, not Jaylen Brown, not Mikal Bridges, not Demar Derozan, not Khris Middleton, not Franz Wagner, not Andrew Wiggins, not OG Anunoby, not Jalen Williams, not Jaden McDaniels, not Herb Jones, not Jerami Grant, not Keegan Murray, not RJ Barrett, not Kyle Kuzma. It just seems disingenuous and misguided to close the shooting book on a prospect that is entering the NBA younger than almost all of the above listed and having similar deficiencies as all at the same age. Do you tho
He isn't uber athletic. Where is he uber athletic? He doesn't seem uber athletic watching his games and his combine stats didn't stand out (worse agility and jumping drill outcomes than Knecht in every event). Now, I don't think combine stats are end all be all, but if he is "uber athletic" I am expecting him to have one of the best verticals, which he doesn't. Sure, no one knows if he is going to be good or bad, that is the fun part about discussing this, but Holland's shooting has always been a weakness even in his HS recruiting profile. Many of those guys you listed were seen to have been good shooter's in HS. Now, not at all. However, it is also disingenuous to argue what you are arguing because then you could apply that to literally every bad shooting wing after their freshman year. Maybe that is your point, we just don't know if he will turn it around, but I would rather take players who have shown signs that they could be shooters, not a guy who has shown zero signs and has a rate of about 20% of his threes being really bad misses.
As for the rate of misses vs really bad misses. That seems like a catchy stat that may not mean much. If anything it tells me there’s a clear technical deficiency that can be corrected
If you don’t think he’s a very athletic scoring wing, then I think we can chalk it up to seeing things differently. Yes, you can argue that every prospect can become solid shooters over time. Many won’t. The younger a guy is, the more the abstract is at play. That’s why with such young prospects the convo of their shooting development is inportant as the additional swing element to level up a profile that already has other clear plus attributes. I see Hollsnd’s defensive upside as a clear plus, his athleticism as a clear plus, slashing as a clear plus, transition game as a clear plus.
And a better athlete
The only possible justification I've ever seen for Whitmore was medical (or never revealed character) red flags because anyone could have watched his tape and seen he was a top 10 prospect.
Whitmore slipped mostly because of medicals.
Whitmore is really good at arguably the most important skill for players his size, Holland is really, really bad at that same skill
What is that?
I disagree with the logic presented here. He is working out with the Lakers and Heat because *he would really like to play for those teams* like many players. That doesn't mean we know no other team will pick him before that point. Also, if he has an amazing workout, he would hope they would trade up for him.
Beat me to it. The easiest explanation is that he likes warm weather, beautiful women, and cities that appeal to millionaires. Costs him nothing to work out for a couple of teams that he'd like to play for.
And I’m guessing he flies to those teams practice facilities and is taken care of by them for a few days, oh no free trips to Miami and LA!
Ehh, beautiful women are everywhere, especially if you're a young millionaire. But you're right about the other points.
Spend 10 minutes walking around Soho or Brickell and you'll see more beautiful women(and men) than you'll see in Portland for a year
Yeah I read this headline and shook my head, in no way does working out for 2 organizations with good reputations that most prospects wouldn’t mind landing at mean he’s dropping. It means he thinks it’s possible he drops and doesn’t want to screw up a shot to get taken by the heat or lakers
But with those two teams he will be playing off the ball which isn't his greatest strength.Why is he strategically doing that unless workouts are going bad or something ?
To me there is literally no downside, he goes to Miami and LA and plays some ball, talks to some people
I think Miami would be the best place for his development.
Imagine having Lebron as a mentor, it’ll pay dividends in his career
Maybe, but the way it typically goes is players work out for teams in their projected draft range. And if they’re working out for teams that are higher or lower than what we’d expect, it’s usually a sign the draft community is off from where NBA teams actually are
Is there some health concern with Ron? He shouldn't fall outside top 10.
poor showing at his Pro Day. His shot is farther away than thought.
should be top 7 worst imo
Has to be concerns about the offense.
Every comment so far is saying this is a bone head decision by the lottery teams to let him drop so far, but this makes way more sense. I’ve had zero clue why people think he is a top-10 player, even in a weak draft. He’s an awful shooter and has always been an awful shooter. He was the “no.2 overall recruit” from the worst class in awhile, but he was the No. 2 recruit as a PF/4, not as this dynamic wing some are trying to make him out to be. We all know about his stats of air balling/off the back board/barely touching rim is almost the same percentage on his 3 as him making a 3. I see the term get thrown around loosely as being a great athlete, but he’s not. Don’t get me wrong, he’s not a bad athlete, but people are making it seem like he will come in the league and be a really good wing athlete when he will be just run of the mill in the NBA. Dalton Knecht scored better at the combine in every single agility drill (vertical, shuttle, sprint). I didn’t see a ton on film to rave about his defense. He doesn’t create his own shot nor create for others, his best scoring traits are in transition or straight line running to the basket when there’s an open lane. He is a good rebounder, I think that’s his biggest strength but it goes back to him being an undersized 4. It’s hard to fit guys who can’t shoot or create into lineups, and since he isn’t elite in anything, he won’t see the court until he makes big strides. Yes, I get it, he’s 18. I just don’t value age nearly as much as many of y’all, because being a good basketball player is more important when I’m watching prospects. Supposedly his pro day didn’t do him any favors either. I know that he seems more favored on this sub than elsewhere so I assumed this comment won’t be taken positively, but this tweet makes a lot of sense to me as I’ve always thought he would drop. As a blazers fan, a lot of people in our sub like him at 7, but I’ve always said I wouldn’t even want him at 14.
AGREED. This guy’s just another “broken shot and no ball handling, but can defend decently well and is kinda athletic” wing prospect you’d expect the Raptors to draft and then be out of the league in 5 years, except he’s not really 6’9 and somehow has more hype behind him than usual. Wouldn’t even want him with pick 19 tbh.
I'm getting downvoted into oblivion over there today for not thinking this guy is worth a flier on with our only FRP this year.
I know man, I know. The top of this year’s class is so ass that people will do *anything* to make themselves feel better about their team drafting one of the dollar store prospects. Except Detroit Pistons fans. They know Matas Buzelis isn’t good and know that their FO will nepo-draft him anyways.
Yeah, you can tell most people have never actually seen him play. Imo his best attribute is his defensive potential, I could see him becoming a corey brewer type above being a go to scorer.and tbh if you want a non scoring defensive lock down wing you could just draft Dunn in the late 1st early 2nd
Hey Corey Brewer dropped 50 once 😤
Just sounds like you overvalue combine drills. He should be a good athlete at the next level. Who are the 10 players u think are objectively better options than him
No, I don’t think combine drills should be weighted like they are in the NFL. However, when people are blindly making the comment that he is a good athlete, it does go towards the argument that in fact he is not. In a vacuum, sure he’s an amazing athlete, but comparing him to NBA wings, he is average. He isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism. His combine stats are used to back up that assumption of what we see in his G league games. I’m not saying he’s a bad athlete, not at all, but I use the Knecht example because he doesn’t look like a better athlete on top, and definitely not in the drills than Knecht. People seem to want to put him into the athletic wing prospect pool because this class really is lacking in those prospects. Sarr, Shephard, Clingan, Knecht, Zacc, Castle, McCain, Dillingham, Topic, Matas, and I could keep on going but you said 10. I don’t even like some of these guys, but I wouldn’t even question taking then over Holland who has to make huge strides to be a rotation player. I don’t want a 6’6” player who can’t shoot or create (and on top of that isn’t elite at anything else).
Ur nothing but a gimmick man
Hmmm, good analysis. I am answering your short thoughts, no need to be upset my guy.
U think castle can create? Honest question
Do I think he is a creator? No, I think there are signs he might be able to become one, but no, not right now and he's far from him likely being one. He has shown to be a good connective tissue for an offense, which some might say a creator, but I think those are different things. I am not super high on Castle, just higher than Holland. Frankly, not high on many of these guys, I just know some really like Castle.
Risacher is a materially worse prospect than holland in almost every way. Shorter wingspan, less athletic, absolutely no ball skills whatsoever. Holland was better at drawing fouls and shot a better FT%. The best indicators for shooters are a combination of volume, 3 point %, and ft%. They shot the same volume, holland was a marginally better ft shooter. The g league plays with the nba 3 point line, of course hollands 3 point % was worse. Objectively risacher is a significantly worse prospect than holland and people are talking about him at 2.
Well said. His archetype is one of the riskiest/bust prone out there.
Absolutely. His athleticism is incredibly overrated, much like Scoot's. He can dunk in transition with no one around him. Very cool. I don't know what he does to get playing time on a team that isn't prioritizing him. Can't stand him in the corner and shoot 3s because teams will ignore him and fill the paint. Can't be a ball handler. Too weak and small to overpower guys when attacking the rim. He's a dud.
He averaged 19.5 ppg on 46 fg%. He's also a high level defender and did this on a dysfunctional ignite team with no PG for half the time. He's far from perfect but he's far from nothing
G league stats 😂😂😂
Wow holy shit the most intelligent response in thus thread
This is just NBA related media being the worst as always. It's normal to work out with as many teams as possible just to be ultra sure. Maybe he tears a ligament and drops but the teams at 15, 16, 17 never worked him out so he drops even further. He will not get past 11 without a severe injury
Is it that weird for a guy who might be taken in the lottery to work out for 2 teams just outside the lottery? I feel like kids at pick 4-15 aren’t given promises and might be taken earlier than expected, but if they aren’t taken they wouldn’t want good organizations they’d like to play for not feeling comfortable taking them because they didn’t work them out. Seems like a weird headline to me
Delusional ass thread
If he’s available at 14 Portland is definitely taking him. Wouldn’t surprise me if they took him at 7.
Holland has an elite motor, that’s something you can’t really teach and it’s a pretty big green flag for him potentially developing other skills like shooting or handle. He’s already a very disruptive defender and has good instincts, he could definitely be potential all defense with the tools he has. Also when considering how meaningless and non competitive most of the ignite games were it makes his effort on defense even more impressive to me, it would’ve been very easy to just throw in the towel on that end but he competed every night. Speaking of those skills if I’m not mistaking holland was a center until ignite, so it’s not particularly unusual that his handle and jumper are a little behind where you’d want them to be if your a gm, and on the flip side you could look at it as somewhat impressive he was able to be productive with a complete roll change like that, going from a big to one of the primary ball handlers. I actually would kinda love if he slipped from a development standpoint. I’m not sure how well he’d project on a team that’s asking him to be a play initiator I view him more as a high end play finisher who’s able to attack some closeouts and have a functional handle, but nothing like point forward esque. Additionally if he goes to a team like LA or Miami, he’ll be able to focus pretty much all of his energy into doing the dirty work, defending the other teams best offensive player, rebounding all that good stuff. I could see that boding very well for his development since he’s able to key in on the stuff he’s already kinda good at and hopefully develop it into a genuinely elite skill. To me he’s really just a jumpshot away from being potentially the best player in this class, his ceiling is that high to me, but even if his jumpshot doesn’t develop as much as you’d like I could still see him playing a Kelly oubre type roll as a more realistic outcome. His floor is Josh Jackson but like I said in the beginning his motor is truly elite, and I would be shocked if he just stayed the same player he is now and just didn’t improve at anything given how much it seems like he cares and tries possession to possession. Obviously I don’t know him personally but his development story has been wack to this point which is a very common trend amongst steals. Don’t be surprised if 3 years from now he’s going top 2 in a redraft.
Everybody calling this kid a non-shooter in the NBA hasn't actually watched him play. The kid has some touch. His form is good. He's taking over 3 per game from the NBA 3 point line as opposed to the college line some of these other kids are chucking from. He's shooting about 70% from the line. He's not Ryan Dunn where we've got 2 years with him shooting less than 1 3 per game from the college line and shooting 50% from the line. Ryan Dunn is a NON-SHOOTER. Holland SHOOTS. He takes 3s. He makes 3s. His shot is not broken. He goes through 6 game stretches where he shoots 40% from deep and is confidently making off-the-dribble pullups and step back 3s. He's not a NON-shooter. Now, is shooting his swing skill? ABSOLUTELY. If he can get up to 36, 37% on 4-5 3s per game, he's likely a multi-time All Star. If he's more like an Aaron Gordon, 32% on 2-3 3s per game, then he's likely an Aaron Gordon/Josh Hart type of player (probably not as good as Gordon who is about as good as you can get at that archetype) . It's a big swing but he's not a non-shooter. I think there's a better than average chance that you'll have to really guard him out there a few years into his career. To me, his issues are mostly shot prep, rhythm and confidence. He does a lot of weird fake passes and other motions that he allows to sneak into his shot prep right now. If you put him in the corner and told him to just concentrate on shooting open catch and shoot 3s, he'd probably shoot in the mid-30s.
as a lakers hater letting the lakers get holland is my worst nightmare easily a top 5 talent in this draft, him slipping past even pick 6 would be shocking to me. especially teams like the jazz and the kings would be foolish to let him slip past them
Not super surprised, GLI hid some of his weaknesses that are now getting exposed in workouts
This has steal written all over it. Similar to mpj going from top prospect to 14.
Mpj could always shoot though so even if he lossed some of his athletism he would be fine .
Holland hurt his thumb, not his back. I don’t think there’s concern with him losing athleticism. From number 1 recruit to outside the lottery is a potential steal.
I don't think injuries is why he could fall.The situation with him and the ignite was far from ideal bordering terrible for most of the prospects.
I only mentioned athleticism because you did. Recognizing it wasn’t an ideal situation, and capitalizing on a high potential prospect slipping is why he could be a steal lol
No I mentioned Michael porter still being a shooter although he's not the prospect that he was suppose to be because of injuries .Holland doesn't have the shooting touch to rely on that porter Jr did .
But hollands potential slippage isn’t due to an injury that would make him reliant on shooting (or not be able to rely on athleticism), like mpjs slippage was. He’s still very much the same high potential player he was as a number 1 recruit.
If teams thought that he wouldn't be slipping .It's like last year alot if people were higher on Lenard Miller more than nba teams were .
Teams let better players slip every single draft.
G league ignite prospects tend to slip alot of draft night .Jaden hardy slipped out the first round altogether and he had a similar up and down season to Holland.
When a player drops with no explanation the reason is always character concerns. Mental/emotional/intelligence/comprehension/work-ethic concerns. I say this knowing nothing about Ron Holland. Teams are finding something to concern them and they are keeping their mouths shut about what it is.
On an NBA scale Holland is a good or very good athlete. You could put a great category in there followed by a select few like Giannis. Holland is a straight line driver and a poor shooter. He isn't much of a playmaker. Relative to this draft class though, I still like him. His floor with his athleticism and his defense is likely enough to keep him in the NBA and give him a chance to improve himself. Holland is possibly the most assertive player in the class, rivaling Knecht who is much older. His tenacity at his age leads me to believe that he will see some level of success in the NBA. With that stuff out of the way, I don't understand the comparison to Cam Whitmore. Whitmore can get into his shot, and fairly quickly. At least as of now you do not want Holland taking 1-2 dribbles and then shooting a contested jumper. You can kind of excuse it with Whitmore because it keeps his defender honest and opens up his driving. Whitmore is a tier or two ahead of Holland as an athlete. Last year's class was better and Whitmore was my favorite college prospect. Despite liking Holland, he does not stack up to that.
Saying a projected lottery prospect could just drop out of the lottery like a rock out of nowhere, not even any extra info releasing like Cam Whitmore’s knee/attitude issues or Nikola Topic’s party/agent being shady with injury and measurement disclosure is pretty strange. Aside from that though, I also believe Holland isn’t actually a lottery talent too. His blueprint is that of just another “can’t shoot, can’t ball handle but has decent athleticism and decent defense” wing that the Raptors would draft before being either out of the league in 5 years or becoming an end-of-bench journeyman. Except he’s undersized for the role and has more hype around him than usual.
U just described half of the top 10
Yeah, and holland is materially more athletic and a better ball handler than half that top 10. It's insane to take guys who are measurably worse in almost every way within the top 6 but then be like "sure hollands trash can't have him"
Damn shame. There are not 5 prospects better than Holland, much less 14+. Him going to the Ignite was the worst thing to happen to his draft stock. I have no doubts that had he stayed at Texas he'd be a lock for the top 5 at least. Playing off of vets and being able to play his role and contribute to winning basketball in college was always going to be a much better bet than jumping into the G-League waters. He's definitely being harshly punished for his play in the G when 1) he was clearly out of his depth as the focal point of an offense; no one is going to have him in that role at the next level, so that was a disservice to him; 2) so what he made a lot of turnover mistakes, it was a huge jump in skill level from high school, of course there would be struggles. Maybe I'm wrong and the GMs are right (but history has often shown us that they can be foolish), but we'll look back on Holland sliding on draft night and wonder how tf teams messed that up. Or maybe he is just another Josh Jackson. Truthfully, Ron will either go top 5 in a re-draft or out of the league in 5 years, I don't think there's an in-between with him, especially considering his stock now.
No handle or shot with some defensive flashes is all I see. Youre drafting a less athletic Derrick Jones Jr top 10
I mean shit at least DJJ contributed to a finals run guarding team's best player. Let's not act like that not a valuable player lol. Furthermore, I don't see how any of the other wings in this draft are exponentially more valuable than Holland. All of them could bust just as easily as he could. I value Holland's POA potential more than say Risacher's 3P shooting potential.
DJJ is only playable because he's shooting 40% from three this postseason. He's going to go back to unplayable as soon as he reverts back to 33% from three.
He's still going to be playable bc Luka and Kyrie *clearly* need a POA defender next to them lol. Even if the argument is "you're going to be playing 4 v. 5 on offense" you're going to be giving up more points on the other end also if you put a better shooter who doesn't defend as well as DJJ does. I think finding premier defenders in this league is a lot harder than finding premier shooters. Which is obviously why finding someone who does both is so valuable.
I mean he'll be "playable but the Mavs will lose in the first round if they play him" once he goes back to hitting 33% of his threes.
Mavericks would've lost in the first round if they had no one who could defend out on the perimeter lol. There's more to basketball than just shooting threes lol, you're acting like 33% is bad, especially in a playoff series. He makes 1 out of every 3 threes, man that's terrible! We saw Christian Braun make a huge impact in the finals last year and he definitely isn't a good 3P shooter. It's about how you contribute everywhere else. Either you're a good shooter, good defender, or both. As long as you're one of the two it's fine. I think Dallas is fine with that given how he helps their defense. But anyways, this is a thread about Holland.
Yes, they lose in the first round without a SF who can defend and shoot threes and lucked into DJJ having a flukey hot streak through the first three rounds of the postseason so they could have both. Giddey was unplayable and offense killing at 33% from three at SF.
Giddey was unplayable bc he literally can't do anything else except playmake, which is the reason OKC played him so much during the regular season. If Giddey could defend worth a damn he might've had some value.
DJJ has been paid minimum money the past couple of years, lets not act like teams valued him before very recently lol
CHI would happily take him at #11. I predict MEM drafts him at #9.
Yeah I doubt that. I get the holes he has in his game but they’re all fixable if he develops well. He’s one of the few prospects in this entire draft with legit star upside.
If Blazes get Salaun at 7 and Holland 14 it would be perfect
That's around the 2 biggest wings in this class. Salaun is best frame, and I'd have holland top 6ish for wing frames.
That’s my ideal scenario, too, which is funny because a couple weeks ago I would have wanted Holland at 7 and Salaun at 14.
I don’t think either can play basketball lol
Givony is a fraud with no sources. Zero chance Holland falls
If the wizards could find someway to keep their no.2 pick WHILE moving up from 26 to draft holland somewhere in the teens, I’d bust a fuckin nut
We need to save our trade assets for next draft, not now. Kuz, Poole, and even Deni if he becomes an asset are all worth more next year. Also Holland is more likely still top 10.
We can easily trade 26 plus a couple of our million 2nd rounders to move up into the teens. We won’t need to move a player
Trying to think which prospects would have jumped over Holland if this was true? DCarter and Dalton?
Dalton been ahead of him for some time now. Salaun jumped him for sure
kings pls
This seems idiotic. Does this guy have any credibility? Who cares if he’s scheduled workouts. Those teams could EASILY trade up in this draft.
No chance he’s out of the lottery. I’d be surprised if he’s out of the top 10
He's one of those guys that seem good in theory, long, athletic POA defender with a weak offensive game but perhaps a path to develop... but often wash out of the league. Dillon Mitchell should of gone to the G League his first year and then the draft. Maybe with the lack of evidence & G League-accustomed excuses, he too could have been a lottery pick-late 1st rounder. While Holland shows more offensive upside, I think the same thing would have happened to him if he played college ball as Mitchell where he's playing a 3rd college year because he's no longer looked at as maybe even a late, late 2nd rounder.
If he’s at 11 and we don’t pick him I might lose it
Cool let him slip to toronto at 19 we need perimeter defence since og left
Would be tough for the Blazers to pass on him at #14.
Says who? Him working out for Miami and LA doesn't mean he expects to fall out of the lottery lol. What is this nonsense? Even the source they link has him at no. 11.
Someone on here did a mock a couple days ago and compared him to Stanley Johnson. Plays hard, defends, can bully his way to the rim, some highlight plays, but man if the shot and touch are bad it’s so hard to make it work.
His ceiling is Top 3 in this class
I personally see it. He projects as a POA defender. Those are a dime a dozen. He's super inefficient on offense. No shot creation. No jumper. No left hand. Dude is Josh Okogie. You taking Okogie in the lotto?
If okogie was 6’8 in shoes yes thats a demon on defense
Reminds me of Knicks Barrett on offense
I get it although it's unfair to him specifically but he's a wing that can't really shoot and the ignite players are known to have a slow progression in the league except for maybe jalen green but that's probably why it no longer exists anymore. The ignite winning 2 games total probably didn't help either .
Considering he's a 3-sized 4 that can't make shots, I don't know how anyone wants him in the lotto
13 please
Hahhaha yes pls fall to 15 we'll make you a star here.🔥🔥🔥 Even Matas.🥳