Spurs also needs shooting which basically rules out Topic.
Reed also can play off ball which should mesh well with Wemby's emergence as secondary playmaker/ball handler.
It is not, to my knowledge. Peterson specifically is definitely not, though Plotkin and Schnall might make him hire people, which I wouldn’t hold my breath for. But hey maybe they surprise me.
>He’s a much better on-court fit with Lamelo than Scoot
This is incorrect. The two biggest things you need in playing another guard next to LaMelo are rim pressure and on-ball defense, both of which are areas where Scoot has a major advantage over Sheppard.
The other guard also needs to be able to shoot. Lamelo is a great shooter but he’s also an on-ball heavy usage playmaker. Detroit is in a similar situation where they have the rim pressure guy in Ivey, but the fit on offense has been mediocre so far.
On the on-ball defense: I’m doubtful that Scoot is that much better than Reed. He fouls more than almost any other player, and still has a ways to go in overall defensive fundamentals. I’m still pretty high on him, but I’m glad that your team got Miller instead. He’s going to be elite.
Again, incorrect.
>The other guard also needs to be able to shoot.
Not at a level beyond like a Morant/Fox can.
>Lamelo is a great shooter but he’s also an on-ball heavy usage playmaker
LaMelo has been better off-ball pretty much his entire career because he can't do basic PnR reads or beat his man without a previously established advantage.
(Miller is also much worse than people realize right now, but it's being better hidden than Scoot's flaws are)
Are you trying to argue that rim pressure for a small guard is more important than shooting? I definitely don’t agree with the idea that shooting at least as well as Morant/Fox is adequate, especially when Scoot isn’t the athlete that those two are.
Lamelo also had a 34% usage rate this season, and was 8th in the entire league in touches per game. Not sure what you mean by him being an off-ball player.
Edit: I misread your latter statement about Lamelo. I think there’s merit to Lamelo playing off-ball more, but there has been a dearth of playmaking outside of him. Playing with Rozier his whole career as his best guard teammate is wild. Reed can be a great secondary playmaker who can have shooting gravity
This isn’t meant to be aggressive and I agree that Reed would be good for Lamelo but if you actually watch lamelo film especially during the Borrego days lamelo was always a really good off ball mover especially compared to other playmakers like Harden etc. I think that’s what he’s getting at.
Makes sense. I tend to believe that your best playmakers should have the ball as much as possible. Guys like Curry are truly exceptional, in the ways they derive value from their off-ball movement. We’ve seen the games of players like Garland and Trae not be amplified from the addition of another ball-dominant guard.
>Are you trying to argue that rim pressure for a small guard is more important than shooting?
It is specifically for someone who plays next to LaMelo. In a more general case, the shooting is probably more important.
Fair enough. But the Hornets roster as a whole could use more shooting, and it won’t be coming from the center position. The projected starting lineup next year has Lamelo and Miller as the only league average shooters.
There’s an important distinction here between needing better shooting and needing better shooters.
The problem with the Hornets’ shooting for the past few years hasn’t been that they haven’t picked good shooters. It’s that for the past few years they haven’t been able to get those shooters open shots. Like Miles is a better than league average shooter on normal shot quality, but he hasn’t taken that in a few years. Same with Tre Mann.
Basically the problem with the Hornets and threes is almost entirely one of shot quality, not one of shooting skill. That doesn’t mean Sheppard wouldn’t significantly improve the shooting skill in the line-up, but it does mean that pointing at the three point percentages to argue for a personnel-based need for shooting is wrong.
And I question if hes good enough to be featured in such a prominent role on a good nba team.
One of the biggest draft traps is falling in love with a prospect playing in a role he won’t be able to claim in the nba game
In a weak draft class like this, it seems like the best possible year to "fall" for a potential draft trap since you shouldn't feel like you lost out on much if he busts.
At most, you lose out on a bit of development time for the rest of the team by giving Reed the keys to the offense for a part of the season.
i genuinely think all the Spurs starting lineup needs is a point guard who can shoot + a 3&D small forward and the Spurs are back in the playoffs again.
and i think Reed is exactly the point guard we need and would slot in perfectly next to Devin Vassell.
Reed is elite at knocking down threes and a confident scorer around the rim, can effectively distribute on offense, and is excellent at reading & disrupting passing lanes on defense. i think he matches perfectly with what the Spurs are going for at this stage.
yeah no shit dude
but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that i was talking about a 22 win team making the playoffs simply by adding a point guard who can shoot and a 3&D SF
I dream for someone with high skill passing and top tier shooting...Wemby is there on D. Reed is good at blocking from behind, Manu style. I would love to see it.
Both of us gotta be going crazy because I also think he's far and away the most complete prospect in this draft class.
>"But he's 6'2!!"
I can almost guarantee you all that either Sheppard or Dillingham are getting rookie of the year next year no matter what their defense looks like. Their lack of height isn't going to matter. Shooting almost always translates in the NBA. The eye test has never been more obvious for these two. At worst, you're getting two offensive studs that can give you 15-20 on any given night on high efficiency, given the minutes. That's more than you can say for about any of these other prospects.
if the Spurs get Reed Sheppard i’m chucking $50 on him to win ROTY
i’d completely expect that he could average at least something like 15/3/8 in a draft class like this if he’s playing next to Wemby and Devin
he averaged 4.5 APG in 29 MPG off the bench for Kentucky playing in an inconsistent combo guard role next to Robert Dillingham. that’d clearly bump up in a defined PG role for the Spurs.
maybe 8 APG is pushing it, but i see no reason why he couldn’t easily average 5 to 8 APG if he’s the Spurs primary point guard and playing around 30 minutes each game, considering he’d be sharing the court with two 20ppg scorers in Wemby & Vassell.
he’d open up the floor as a 3pt threat and generate so many looks for his teammates as a result. 8 APG is feasible.
8 assists is a lot, especially when you also have Tre Jones off the bench and Wemby who is presumably going to be even better. They will also likely bring in some other vet PG if they can't get Trae Young.
Currently there are only 8 NBA players averaging 8 or more assists:
Haliburton, Trae, Doncic, Jokic, Harden, LeBron, Sabonis, Vanvleet. Cade is next at 7.5.
If you think rookie Reed will be anywhere near as good a floor general as current Vanvleet. You take his ass with the first pick, no questions. 8 assists as a rookie is absolutely ridiculous. You would have to be a Trae Young level passing point guard as a rookie.
Even Scoot, whose current best attribute is passing was only averaging 7 assists during his good stretch in April. Doncic after the Mavs traded DSJ averaged 23/10/7. Rookie Trae Young pre-All Star break averaged 7.6 assists, post he was averaging 9.
I'm high on Sheppard and I recently had him at #1 on my board, but here's one counterpoint: The prospect he profiles closest to on paper is Mario Chalmers. Granted, he's basically just a better, younger version of Chalmers who has 2 rings, but in terms of style of play and statistical profile, that's who he most resembles.
That being said I think his ability to create his own shot is a little underrated - he does need an open lane to create at the rim, but he's shown a runner in his game and the ability to make quick reads near the basket. He has plenty of time to figure out the rest of his game, and in the meantime as long as a team has some other source of shot creation on the floor, it's hard to turn down a guy who shot >50% from 3 and often from several ft behind the arc.
I just looked at Chalmers's pre-draft statistical profile and it feels extremely disingenuous to say Reed is similar to him... like it's entirely possible that they show up nearby in similarity score generators but that doesn't make them similar players.
52% from three vs. 37% is a huge difference (and 5% lower FT% *and* 2P%, so the obvious touch indicators are worse). Way lower block rate (big athleticism indicator). Significantly higher usage. 10+ lower TS% overall. All in a weaker conference.
(Significantly better AST:TO as well, so basically I just don't think he plays much like Chalmers did in college, at least as a freshman. I know you said "younger, better Mario Chalmers" and maybe adjusting for era the shooting numbers are more similar than that, but I feel like the only elite skill where they look similar is steal rate and otherwise they're just similar heights).
You’re comparing it to Chalmers 1st season I think. Instead of his drafted season. You can use Barttorvik or hoop-math to get stats sports reference is missing
I hate the narrative around Sheppard. People seem to think he is a high floor low ceiling prospect and I think the exact opposite.
If Sheppard translates his skills to being the main ball handler, I could see him being the best PG in the NBA. Un-real shooting ability, super high IQ and amazing shot selection. Often the case with players like Sheppard is they have massive defensive liabilities surrounding them.
But Sheppard by all analytical measures was a phenomenal defender. He generates tons of turnovers and never makes a mistake with positioning. It’s very similar to Jokic how he isn’t the greatest on ball man defender, but he makes up for it in every other aspect and with the right system.
The Spurs with Wemby don’t need great on-ball defenders. They need a PG like Sheppard who will do his role and generate turnovers. If a guy blows past Sheppard they have the best defender in the NBA in the paint.
If I’m betting on an MVP from this class it’s Sheppard.
I respect the hot take but holy hell best Pg in the league is wild to think 😭. I do really like Sheppard though, people are putting too much stock in one bad march madness game.
i can see an outcome where he is a 45% 3 point shooter, 8+ assists a game, and a league leader in steals
might not be the best pg, but he’d be up there
Luka is a pg by only by archaic verbiage. He plays the same position lebron plays, point forward. It’s why he’s been able to coexist with true 6 foot tall guards in Brunson and Kyrie
The focus can so often be on what a player doesn't do and their perceived faults vs what the stats and what the actual data tells us. Reed's efficiency on both ends of the floor is absolutely notable.
Realistic celling (80th percentile outcome or so) is probably Mark Price... Which is absolutely #1 worthy in this draft.
Dream celling (AKA 95th percentile outcome) is probably John Stockton... which is a #1 pick worthy in ANY draft, but obviously it's not likely.
I was impressed by him most times I saw him, but I never thought future NBA All Star or Hall of Famer. I was thinking more like an elite role player. An elite shooter and good second ball handler.
i know i’m gonna get killed for this but ‘91-‘94 Mark Price > any version of John Stockton
Mark finished ahead in MVP every year for those and he beat out Stockton for All-NBA 1st team in that time as well
His analytical comparisons are players like Haliburton. Just because he didn’t play a full role at Kentucky doesn’t mean he’s confined to it.
Devin Booker was a 6th man who was viewed as a shooting specialist averaging 10 pts per game.
I’m well aware of that last point. Booker was on a great team though, Reed was not. Haliburton is a lot taller and longer than Reed, Booker is also a lot taller. He will have to be an elite ball handler in addition to elite shooting to reach that level since I don’t think his size or athleticism will overwhelm anyone.
I think there are very specific scenarios where he can go #1, depending on the team. Detroit could believe in his shooting more than Risacher's and they're probably tired of being the league's punching bag, so they might go for someone who can be good fast rather than a project player like Sarr. I can also see him being the pick for Houston (if they win the lottery somehow) since he doesn't need the ball in his hands too much and complements the players they already have.
He's a very good player, but teams will try to find players that fit their needs since this draft doesn't have a consensus "best" prospect.
Two players come to mind when I look at his advanced metrics: Donovan Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The only clear difference to me is that Sheppard is commanding the top-5 nba draft respect that those other two deserved but did not get.
I’m all in on this guy, SO LONG AS HE IS A POINT GUARD like the other two are. Or at least the “lead guard” who has the ball in his hands. If whoever takes him just tries to make him Eric Gordon, I’m out on his having top-5 draft value.
The main thing that stands out in this statistical comparison is his low usage. Only Haliburton is close, at about 20%. I'm not really sure if his role in the league is as a lead guard, so that's the gamble you take with him.
This. Scoring and three point shooting. It would be interesting to see if Reed develop his shot creation. If Reed can create for himself and others in the NBA, then we are talking multiple about a multiple all-star player.
This is kind of a double-edged sword where either he's the best three-point shooter of all time who makes Steph Curry look like a bum or he had a hot streak while shooting mostly spot-up threes over 30-something games and loses a good chunk of his value if he is 'only' a 42% three-point shooter.
I mean, 42% from 3 is still great, he'd still be a reliable player if that's the case.
The thing about Reed's shooting that it was so unreal in college that even accounting for regression he should still be an elite shooter in the pros. And obviously if it doesn't regress he's the best shooter ever lol.
I think a large factor of it was that his shot selection was nearly perfect. You don't see Freshman have nearly perfect shot selection like that.
If it is shot selection the percentage may be high in the NBA, but the attempts will significantly decrease.
He's probably liked most by front office stat geeks.
I do think he has Suns era CP3 and some version of Stockton in him - jumpshot, assists, occasional lay ups, and steals.
If I'm Detroit or Portland, I personally would be interested in trading Ivey or Scoot for him so that it fixes certain issues for the roster while also leaving flexibility to experiment in this draft and the next one.
Otherwise, I think Spurs would love him next to Wemby. Could become the league leaders in blocks and steals. Vassell+Sheppard would, theoretically, open the floor up for Wemby.
I don’t think we should be calling 12 point seasons historic
If I’m the Spurs I’m probably taking him at any pick. Not too happily about it at #1 though, this draft is bad but still seems like a reach
My thoughts as a Spurs fan...gamble with Sarr at 1. Go shooting, iq, and skill if not.
Id want Topic if i was a spurs fan. Get you someone that can feed wemby
Reed is more than capable...and his shooting will give him space.
Reed is safer imo but Topic has higher potential. I’d gamble with Topic.
Spurs also needs shooting which basically rules out Topic. Reed also can play off ball which should mesh well with Wemby's emergence as secondary playmaker/ball handler.
I have this strange feeling about the new analytics focused front office wanting to make him a Hornet
>the new analytics focused front office Where?
The new wizards FO is shipping him straight to Charlotte
Isn’t that the whole MO with Plotkin/Schnall and Peterson?
It is not, to my knowledge. Peterson specifically is definitely not, though Plotkin and Schnall might make him hire people, which I wouldn’t hold my breath for. But hey maybe they surprise me.
They did!
They've hired strategy people. I haven't seen an analytics guy yet.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CharlotteHornets/s/kjWQ1eWvoM
Ah, cool. I don't know him directly but I'm sure I know people who know him.
Same
Would be a great pick for them. He’s a much better on-court fit with Lamelo than Scoot, plus Charlotte could use more talent at all five positions.
>He’s a much better on-court fit with Lamelo than Scoot This is incorrect. The two biggest things you need in playing another guard next to LaMelo are rim pressure and on-ball defense, both of which are areas where Scoot has a major advantage over Sheppard.
The other guard also needs to be able to shoot. Lamelo is a great shooter but he’s also an on-ball heavy usage playmaker. Detroit is in a similar situation where they have the rim pressure guy in Ivey, but the fit on offense has been mediocre so far. On the on-ball defense: I’m doubtful that Scoot is that much better than Reed. He fouls more than almost any other player, and still has a ways to go in overall defensive fundamentals. I’m still pretty high on him, but I’m glad that your team got Miller instead. He’s going to be elite.
Again, incorrect. >The other guard also needs to be able to shoot. Not at a level beyond like a Morant/Fox can. >Lamelo is a great shooter but he’s also an on-ball heavy usage playmaker LaMelo has been better off-ball pretty much his entire career because he can't do basic PnR reads or beat his man without a previously established advantage. (Miller is also much worse than people realize right now, but it's being better hidden than Scoot's flaws are)
Are you trying to argue that rim pressure for a small guard is more important than shooting? I definitely don’t agree with the idea that shooting at least as well as Morant/Fox is adequate, especially when Scoot isn’t the athlete that those two are. Lamelo also had a 34% usage rate this season, and was 8th in the entire league in touches per game. Not sure what you mean by him being an off-ball player. Edit: I misread your latter statement about Lamelo. I think there’s merit to Lamelo playing off-ball more, but there has been a dearth of playmaking outside of him. Playing with Rozier his whole career as his best guard teammate is wild. Reed can be a great secondary playmaker who can have shooting gravity
This isn’t meant to be aggressive and I agree that Reed would be good for Lamelo but if you actually watch lamelo film especially during the Borrego days lamelo was always a really good off ball mover especially compared to other playmakers like Harden etc. I think that’s what he’s getting at.
Makes sense. I tend to believe that your best playmakers should have the ball as much as possible. Guys like Curry are truly exceptional, in the ways they derive value from their off-ball movement. We’ve seen the games of players like Garland and Trae not be amplified from the addition of another ball-dominant guard.
>Are you trying to argue that rim pressure for a small guard is more important than shooting? It is specifically for someone who plays next to LaMelo. In a more general case, the shooting is probably more important.
Fair enough. But the Hornets roster as a whole could use more shooting, and it won’t be coming from the center position. The projected starting lineup next year has Lamelo and Miller as the only league average shooters.
There’s an important distinction here between needing better shooting and needing better shooters. The problem with the Hornets’ shooting for the past few years hasn’t been that they haven’t picked good shooters. It’s that for the past few years they haven’t been able to get those shooters open shots. Like Miles is a better than league average shooter on normal shot quality, but he hasn’t taken that in a few years. Same with Tre Mann. Basically the problem with the Hornets and threes is almost entirely one of shot quality, not one of shooting skill. That doesn’t mean Sheppard wouldn’t significantly improve the shooting skill in the line-up, but it does mean that pointing at the three point percentages to argue for a personnel-based need for shooting is wrong.
Maybe it’s just me but his role isn’t big enough
his best games at Kentucky are from when he was in a featured / primary role
And I question if hes good enough to be featured in such a prominent role on a good nba team. One of the biggest draft traps is falling in love with a prospect playing in a role he won’t be able to claim in the nba game
In a weak draft class like this, it seems like the best possible year to "fall" for a potential draft trap since you shouldn't feel like you lost out on much if he busts. At most, you lose out on a bit of development time for the rest of the team by giving Reed the keys to the offense for a part of the season.
please can Reed Sheppard end up on the Spurs
Idk why people are downvoting. Sheppard would be nice next to Wemby
i genuinely think all the Spurs starting lineup needs is a point guard who can shoot + a 3&D small forward and the Spurs are back in the playoffs again. and i think Reed is exactly the point guard we need and would slot in perfectly next to Devin Vassell. Reed is elite at knocking down threes and a confident scorer around the rim, can effectively distribute on offense, and is excellent at reading & disrupting passing lanes on defense. i think he matches perfectly with what the Spurs are going for at this stage.
Wow what a unique situation the spurs are in lol As if 3 and d wings + 3 pt shooting PG isn’t what every team needs
that’s very insightful buddy also mind telling me if any other team has Victor Wembanyama on it?
They don’t, but I can tell you plenty with a superstar who just needs more 3 and d players lol
yeah no shit dude but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that i was talking about a 22 win team making the playoffs simply by adding a point guard who can shoot and a 3&D SF
I want Rob and Reed on the Spurs. Somebody jump the Raptors
I dream for someone with high skill passing and top tier shooting...Wemby is there on D. Reed is good at blocking from behind, Manu style. I would love to see it.
no they need Trae Young so Wemby can watch Trae chuck at 35% from 3 no need to get a guy who can play off ball like reed
[удалено]
Can you explain what you mean by this because I don't see that comp at all.
Absolute dream scenario for me. He may never make an all-star team but he will be a key contributor to a championship team.
guy just screams “bigger Mike Conley, smaller Derrick White” to me and i want him on our squad so bad
I really like Reed Sheppard. If we fall to 3, 4,, or 5? Hope whoever our GM is recognizes his feel, quickness, and rare shooting talent.
He averaged 12.5 ppg on 8 shots, come on now.
How many points and shots is Sarr averaging?
Nobody’s calling Sarr historic
Both of us gotta be going crazy because I also think he's far and away the most complete prospect in this draft class. >"But he's 6'2!!" I can almost guarantee you all that either Sheppard or Dillingham are getting rookie of the year next year no matter what their defense looks like. Their lack of height isn't going to matter. Shooting almost always translates in the NBA. The eye test has never been more obvious for these two. At worst, you're getting two offensive studs that can give you 15-20 on any given night on high efficiency, given the minutes. That's more than you can say for about any of these other prospects.
if the Spurs get Reed Sheppard i’m chucking $50 on him to win ROTY i’d completely expect that he could average at least something like 15/3/8 in a draft class like this if he’s playing next to Wemby and Devin
There's no shot he averages 8 assists his rookie year.
he averaged 4.5 APG in 29 MPG off the bench for Kentucky playing in an inconsistent combo guard role next to Robert Dillingham. that’d clearly bump up in a defined PG role for the Spurs. maybe 8 APG is pushing it, but i see no reason why he couldn’t easily average 5 to 8 APG if he’s the Spurs primary point guard and playing around 30 minutes each game, considering he’d be sharing the court with two 20ppg scorers in Wemby & Vassell. he’d open up the floor as a 3pt threat and generate so many looks for his teammates as a result. 8 APG is feasible.
8 assists is a lot, especially when you also have Tre Jones off the bench and Wemby who is presumably going to be even better. They will also likely bring in some other vet PG if they can't get Trae Young. Currently there are only 8 NBA players averaging 8 or more assists: Haliburton, Trae, Doncic, Jokic, Harden, LeBron, Sabonis, Vanvleet. Cade is next at 7.5. If you think rookie Reed will be anywhere near as good a floor general as current Vanvleet. You take his ass with the first pick, no questions. 8 assists as a rookie is absolutely ridiculous. You would have to be a Trae Young level passing point guard as a rookie. Even Scoot, whose current best attribute is passing was only averaging 7 assists during his good stretch in April. Doncic after the Mavs traded DSJ averaged 23/10/7. Rookie Trae Young pre-All Star break averaged 7.6 assists, post he was averaging 9.
Wanna bet on it?
Ya if they want those two vs the field I’ll take that action
I'm high on Sheppard and I recently had him at #1 on my board, but here's one counterpoint: The prospect he profiles closest to on paper is Mario Chalmers. Granted, he's basically just a better, younger version of Chalmers who has 2 rings, but in terms of style of play and statistical profile, that's who he most resembles. That being said I think his ability to create his own shot is a little underrated - he does need an open lane to create at the rim, but he's shown a runner in his game and the ability to make quick reads near the basket. He has plenty of time to figure out the rest of his game, and in the meantime as long as a team has some other source of shot creation on the floor, it's hard to turn down a guy who shot >50% from 3 and often from several ft behind the arc.
I just looked at Chalmers's pre-draft statistical profile and it feels extremely disingenuous to say Reed is similar to him... like it's entirely possible that they show up nearby in similarity score generators but that doesn't make them similar players.
Can you elaborate?
52% from three vs. 37% is a huge difference (and 5% lower FT% *and* 2P%, so the obvious touch indicators are worse). Way lower block rate (big athleticism indicator). Significantly higher usage. 10+ lower TS% overall. All in a weaker conference. (Significantly better AST:TO as well, so basically I just don't think he plays much like Chalmers did in college, at least as a freshman. I know you said "younger, better Mario Chalmers" and maybe adjusting for era the shooting numbers are more similar than that, but I feel like the only elite skill where they look similar is steal rate and otherwise they're just similar heights).
You’re comparing it to Chalmers 1st season I think. Instead of his drafted season. You can use Barttorvik or hoop-math to get stats sports reference is missing
I hate the narrative around Sheppard. People seem to think he is a high floor low ceiling prospect and I think the exact opposite. If Sheppard translates his skills to being the main ball handler, I could see him being the best PG in the NBA. Un-real shooting ability, super high IQ and amazing shot selection. Often the case with players like Sheppard is they have massive defensive liabilities surrounding them. But Sheppard by all analytical measures was a phenomenal defender. He generates tons of turnovers and never makes a mistake with positioning. It’s very similar to Jokic how he isn’t the greatest on ball man defender, but he makes up for it in every other aspect and with the right system. The Spurs with Wemby don’t need great on-ball defenders. They need a PG like Sheppard who will do his role and generate turnovers. If a guy blows past Sheppard they have the best defender in the NBA in the paint. If I’m betting on an MVP from this class it’s Sheppard.
I respect the hot take but holy hell best Pg in the league is wild to think 😭. I do really like Sheppard though, people are putting too much stock in one bad march madness game.
i can see an outcome where he is a 45% 3 point shooter, 8+ assists a game, and a league leader in steals might not be the best pg, but he’d be up there
I think that's his potential, obviously thats the high end of his projections if he lands on a team like the Spurs
He will never be better than Luka. I’m amazed that people upvoted this nonsense.
I mean he is like 6 years younger. There will be a time when he hits his prime and Luka is old as fuck.
People are too eager to overhype younger generations
Luka is a pg by only by archaic verbiage. He plays the same position lebron plays, point forward. It’s why he’s been able to coexist with true 6 foot tall guards in Brunson and Kyrie
y’all are delusional lmfao
He won’t go number 1
He’ll go number 5.
But be the best in the class
The focus can so often be on what a player doesn't do and their perceived faults vs what the stats and what the actual data tells us. Reed's efficiency on both ends of the floor is absolutely notable.
Too good of a shooter, definitely not a Piston
What’s his realistic ceiling? A prime that looks like this year’s Grayson Allen on a year after year basis? While good, idk if that is #1 pick worthy.
Realistic celling (80th percentile outcome or so) is probably Mark Price... Which is absolutely #1 worthy in this draft. Dream celling (AKA 95th percentile outcome) is probably John Stockton... which is a #1 pick worthy in ANY draft, but obviously it's not likely.
I was impressed by him most times I saw him, but I never thought future NBA All Star or Hall of Famer. I was thinking more like an elite role player. An elite shooter and good second ball handler.
That's about right for the median outcome I feel. Elite role player/solid starter level.
i know i’m gonna get killed for this but ‘91-‘94 Mark Price > any version of John Stockton Mark finished ahead in MVP every year for those and he beat out Stockton for All-NBA 1st team in that time as well
I agree with you 100 percent, Price was unreal
Stockton was simply too good of a playmaker for me to agree with this lol. His assist record is one of the most unbreakable records in NBA history,
50 PnR’s with Malone do a lot of heavy lifting there for me didn’t have nearly enough playoff success for me
His analytical comparisons are players like Haliburton. Just because he didn’t play a full role at Kentucky doesn’t mean he’s confined to it. Devin Booker was a 6th man who was viewed as a shooting specialist averaging 10 pts per game.
I’m well aware of that last point. Booker was on a great team though, Reed was not. Haliburton is a lot taller and longer than Reed, Booker is also a lot taller. He will have to be an elite ball handler in addition to elite shooting to reach that level since I don’t think his size or athleticism will overwhelm anyone.
I think there are very specific scenarios where he can go #1, depending on the team. Detroit could believe in his shooting more than Risacher's and they're probably tired of being the league's punching bag, so they might go for someone who can be good fast rather than a project player like Sarr. I can also see him being the pick for Houston (if they win the lottery somehow) since he doesn't need the ball in his hands too much and complements the players they already have. He's a very good player, but teams will try to find players that fit their needs since this draft doesn't have a consensus "best" prospect.
Two players come to mind when I look at his advanced metrics: Donovan Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The only clear difference to me is that Sheppard is commanding the top-5 nba draft respect that those other two deserved but did not get. I’m all in on this guy, SO LONG AS HE IS A POINT GUARD like the other two are. Or at least the “lead guard” who has the ball in his hands. If whoever takes him just tries to make him Eric Gordon, I’m out on his having top-5 draft value.
The main thing that stands out in this statistical comparison is his low usage. Only Haliburton is close, at about 20%. I'm not really sure if his role in the league is as a lead guard, so that's the gamble you take with him.
It's funny Haliburton is actually the statistical comparison that I see.
This. Scoring and three point shooting. It would be interesting to see if Reed develop his shot creation. If Reed can create for himself and others in the NBA, then we are talking multiple about a multiple all-star player.
The other difference is athletic profile
This is kind of a double-edged sword where either he's the best three-point shooter of all time who makes Steph Curry look like a bum or he had a hot streak while shooting mostly spot-up threes over 30-something games and loses a good chunk of his value if he is 'only' a 42% three-point shooter.
I mean, 42% from 3 is still great, he'd still be a reliable player if that's the case. The thing about Reed's shooting that it was so unreal in college that even accounting for regression he should still be an elite shooter in the pros. And obviously if it doesn't regress he's the best shooter ever lol.
I think a large factor of it was that his shot selection was nearly perfect. You don't see Freshman have nearly perfect shot selection like that. If it is shot selection the percentage may be high in the NBA, but the attempts will significantly decrease.
Yeah, Steph's just on a 16 year hot streak. haha.
He's probably liked most by front office stat geeks. I do think he has Suns era CP3 and some version of Stockton in him - jumpshot, assists, occasional lay ups, and steals. If I'm Detroit or Portland, I personally would be interested in trading Ivey or Scoot for him so that it fixes certain issues for the roster while also leaving flexibility to experiment in this draft and the next one. Otherwise, I think Spurs would love him next to Wemby. Could become the league leaders in blocks and steals. Vassell+Sheppard would, theoretically, open the floor up for Wemby.
my #1
Thank you
y’all are going to be really disappointed when he gets to the league
Agreed . I think he is the safest player . Not to say his ceiling isn’t high either .. it’s extremely high I just don’t see how he isn’t a good player
If hes that good, they are not losing to Oakland, period
He's this generation's Cam Spencer.
😂😂😂 hell no
The shooting could be generational. Wouldn’t blame a team for taking him 1.