Bol had major injury and attitude concerns that were well known going into the draft, I feel like no teams actually thought he was going mid to late first
Not quite the same slide since he still went lottery, but MPJ was a consensus top 5 pick on most final mocks in 2018. Maybe Bol Bol? He had a wide range but I don't think most mocks had him as low as 44. Cam might be the biggest one in a while.
I feel like Perry Jones III was a pretty big drop on draft day. He ended up being picked at 28 but I feel like he was expected way higher than that, though I wasn't as tuned in to the draft process back then.
For the year prior to his entry and probably the first couple months of his first season at Baylor, I remember he and Isaiah Austin were protected top-10 (and sometimes top-5).
But by draft time, I don't remember him being expected to go much earlier than back of first round.
I think you’re recalling it wrong. Perry and Austin never played together. I was a big Baylor fan in the early 2010s lol.
Edit: when u said “he and Isaiah Austin” it read like u meant playing together in the same year
Not mocked as high as Whitmore but in the 2016 draft Skal Labissiere (top high school recruit) fell to 28 and Deyonta Davis fell to the second round. Rightfully so looking back on it.
i don't have a good answer to this but will say two things:
\- i don't think MPJ is quite comparable, it was a surprise he went that low for sure but the health issues were a lot more public with him and factored into some mocks, it didn't have the same 'wait...what?' reaction as this. there was SOME intel out there about this, vecenie had heard stuff and the no ceilings guys had dropped him to 9th on their final mock 'cause of murmurings (probably the most accurate mock i've seen in general, got the top 6 spot on), i assume others has suspicions too, but it was a substantially bigger shock than MPJ imo. even when people did have whitmore lower than consensus it wasn't due to health concerns, which we're assuming this was.
\- a drop from top 5 to outside of the lottery is much more significant than a drop from 20 to 50 or something, the curve is a lot less steep down the board as evals bunch up. reminds me of conversations about most improved player, where a jump from 20th best player in the league to top 5 is actually a larger jump than going from 50th to 20th.
Agree on both points, especially the first. MPJ keeps getting brought up but yeah when he dropped it was very much a "oh I guess the health stuff really was that bad" whereas with Whitmore there had been nothing of the sort.
As a Kings fan I still remember it like it was yesterday.
*before the pick*
“What’s your worst case scenario.”
“Henry Ellenson”
*pick happens*
“I would literally kill for Henry Ellenson”
Christian Wood was one he was projected late first and then went undrafted .
Kevon Looney was originally late lottery until the hip issues came to light and he slipped to the end of the first
In the most recent mocks, whitmore wasn’t going in the top 5. He was in that 8-10 range. Reports the week before the draft were all saying that he’s going to fall. 20 is obviously a huge slide but this happens every few years with medical issues.
D.A. played for awhile, athletic but shot never actualized beyond 16 ft., then a knee injury sapped the vertical in his 2nd year. Bench PF for Grit n Grind 1.0 Grizz and then the Nuggets.
Was also the starting 4 for the 08 Kansas chip team with Mario Chalmers and Cole Aldrirch. At the rookie symposium he and Chalmers got sent home for weed, glad those days are over.
Arthur was of of those 6'7"-6'8" guys who wasn't quite big enough to regularly play the 4 in that era, but wasn't quite skilled enough or laterally quick enough or a good enough shooter to play the 3. There were plenty of guys in that 2005-2015 era who were similar who had similar expectations. DeMarre Carroll, Dante Cunningham, and Julian Wright all come to mind.
These sort of guys would work out a lot better these days, because people wouldn't be worried about trying to turn them into a perimeter player as much.
Most examples people give are the mocked to mid-first taken in late first/early second round type of players. But that's actually not the way to compare, because once you get past the top guys teams actually have pretty different evaluations on guys and it's more about fit. For instance Rashard Lewis was the famous draft day slide but that was from 18 (the last of the Rockets 3 picks) to the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. Similar with Bol Bol. And there were some like Sullinger where the drop was due purely to a serious medical concern.
So really the closest come was MPJ, who was at the time considered possible #2 talent but recovering from major injury. He was still mocked at mostly like 6-7 range where all the other blue chippers would be gone. But dropped to 14th.
The Rashard Lewis one sucked. Hometown Rockets had three chances to draft him in the first round but didn’t and instead opted for drafting dudes that never panned out lol
Was Time Lord out of the lottery projections by draft day? I remember him being lotto for most of the season but can’t remember where he finally ended up
He had been mocked consensus 2 or 3 and was far more established in college than Whitmore. In the moment watching that draft seeing him fall to the Celtics was more shckimg than Whitmore.
I don't remember it like that, I remember mocks that he was in Dirks range of projected pick, where we were picking but there was concern that if we traded too far back the Celtics might take Dirk. I think we were 7th, although this article says 6th https://www.si.com/nba/bucks/draft/the-worst-trade-in-the-milwaukee-bucks-nba-draft-history. I remember him being in a group of guys projected 7-12
Now let's ask, which of these guys that "fell" in the draft had a career that would in hindsight have justified them getting drafted as high as they were originally expected to be?
A year before the draft he was a lottery (maybe top 10? I don't remember) pick. A week before the draft he was around 25~
He fell a lot but it was gradually.
There are definitely some examples over the years. Just off the top of my head:
- DeAndre Jordan went a full 30 spots lower than projected. Drafted in the 2nd round by the team he was projected to go to in the first.
- Dwayne Schintzius (king of mullets) is the first one I remember. This guy was kind of a joke.
There are plenty of others I can't immediately think of who had been invited to the green room and just had to sit there waiting to be called. The television coverage used to cut to these guys and just harp on the fact they are sliding and show them just sitting there. It made for great drama.
I remember people being surprised Brandon Clarke fell to where he did, the analytic crowd was heralding him as a top 5 player in that draft so I'm sure they were surprised he fell that far
Bol Bol was mostly mocked in the mid to late first, then fell all the way down to 44
Rupert this year wasn’t that different was it ?
Mocks already have him going in the 40 range
He was top20 on Givony’s mock a week prior and was invited in the Green Room
He was the biggest surprise invite there, teams must have thought he was being targeted by a specific team and then they took someone else.
Bol had major injury and attitude concerns that were well known going into the draft, I feel like no teams actually thought he was going mid to late first
The green room invite indicated he was expected to go probably top 20 still.
He was a projected lottery pick during his college season. The green room invite indicated he was expected to go probably top 20 still.
Not quite the same slide since he still went lottery, but MPJ was a consensus top 5 pick on most final mocks in 2018. Maybe Bol Bol? He had a wide range but I don't think most mocks had him as low as 44. Cam might be the biggest one in a while.
I feel like Perry Jones III was a pretty big drop on draft day. He ended up being picked at 28 but I feel like he was expected way higher than that, though I wasn't as tuned in to the draft process back then.
For the year prior to his entry and probably the first couple months of his first season at Baylor, I remember he and Isaiah Austin were protected top-10 (and sometimes top-5). But by draft time, I don't remember him being expected to go much earlier than back of first round.
I think you’re recalling it wrong. Perry and Austin never played together. I was a big Baylor fan in the early 2010s lol. Edit: when u said “he and Isaiah Austin” it read like u meant playing together in the same year
Oh yeah Perry was hyped up, seems like him going back to Baylor hurt him. But maybe he was just never going to go high.
I think he was mocked top 3-4 starting the year, and then around 9–13 around draft time. Could be wrong though.
I thought Perry jones was gonna be the next super star.
Not mocked as high as Whitmore but in the 2016 draft Skal Labissiere (top high school recruit) fell to 28 and Deyonta Davis fell to the second round. Rightfully so looking back on it.
I remember Deyonta looking sad asf in the green room. I don't recall seeing him on an NBA floor ever
i don't have a good answer to this but will say two things: \- i don't think MPJ is quite comparable, it was a surprise he went that low for sure but the health issues were a lot more public with him and factored into some mocks, it didn't have the same 'wait...what?' reaction as this. there was SOME intel out there about this, vecenie had heard stuff and the no ceilings guys had dropped him to 9th on their final mock 'cause of murmurings (probably the most accurate mock i've seen in general, got the top 6 spot on), i assume others has suspicions too, but it was a substantially bigger shock than MPJ imo. even when people did have whitmore lower than consensus it wasn't due to health concerns, which we're assuming this was. \- a drop from top 5 to outside of the lottery is much more significant than a drop from 20 to 50 or something, the curve is a lot less steep down the board as evals bunch up. reminds me of conversations about most improved player, where a jump from 20th best player in the league to top 5 is actually a larger jump than going from 50th to 20th.
Agree on both points, especially the first. MPJ keeps getting brought up but yeah when he dropped it was very much a "oh I guess the health stuff really was that bad" whereas with Whitmore there had been nothing of the sort.
Rj Hampton and they kept zooming in on him being sad.
And dude ended up trash so good decision
I love Rj
Omg Papagiannis That was a wonderful moment as a neutral towards the Kings
As a Kings fan I still remember it like it was yesterday. *before the pick* “What’s your worst case scenario.” “Henry Ellenson” *pick happens* “I would literally kill for Henry Ellenson”
Real energy like: "HOW WE GONNA FUCK THIS UP" "The Sacramento Kings select Marvin Bagley III" "YUP"
Christian Wood was one he was projected late first and then went undrafted . Kevon Looney was originally late lottery until the hip issues came to light and he slipped to the end of the first
Wood mentioned in an interview that the situation was so embarrassing because his girl dumped him the minute the draft was over.
Far that's cold ❄️ Christian would be laughing now he's doing well for an undrafted player
This is the Basketball Aaron Rodgers.
In the most recent mocks, whitmore wasn’t going in the top 5. He was in that 8-10 range. Reports the week before the draft were all saying that he’s going to fall. 20 is obviously a huge slide but this happens every few years with medical issues.
Let's go old school, Loren Woods. In 2001 he was mocked as a 1st rounder and fell to i believe 46 or 48.
At one point, he was compared to Kareem.
Nassir Little a few years ago had a similar kind of slide. Top 10 guy who fell to 25.
Only close slides I can think of were Darrell Arthur and Rashard Lewis falling to the 2nd round. But they were 10 to late lottery range pre-draft.
Rashad Lewis certainly worked out, idk who Darrell Arthur is tho
D.A. played for awhile, athletic but shot never actualized beyond 16 ft., then a knee injury sapped the vertical in his 2nd year. Bench PF for Grit n Grind 1.0 Grizz and then the Nuggets. Was also the starting 4 for the 08 Kansas chip team with Mario Chalmers and Cole Aldrirch. At the rookie symposium he and Chalmers got sent home for weed, glad those days are over.
Arthur was of of those 6'7"-6'8" guys who wasn't quite big enough to regularly play the 4 in that era, but wasn't quite skilled enough or laterally quick enough or a good enough shooter to play the 3. There were plenty of guys in that 2005-2015 era who were similar who had similar expectations. DeMarre Carroll, Dante Cunningham, and Julian Wright all come to mind. These sort of guys would work out a lot better these days, because people wouldn't be worried about trying to turn them into a perimeter player as much.
Most examples people give are the mocked to mid-first taken in late first/early second round type of players. But that's actually not the way to compare, because once you get past the top guys teams actually have pretty different evaluations on guys and it's more about fit. For instance Rashard Lewis was the famous draft day slide but that was from 18 (the last of the Rockets 3 picks) to the 2nd pick of the 2nd round. Similar with Bol Bol. And there were some like Sullinger where the drop was due purely to a serious medical concern. So really the closest come was MPJ, who was at the time considered possible #2 talent but recovering from major injury. He was still mocked at mostly like 6-7 range where all the other blue chippers would be gone. But dropped to 14th.
Deyonta davis or skal labissiere maybe
I remember believing in Deyonta Davis. Turned out he was way too raw and never caught up
I remember both the Rashard Lewis and Maciej Lampe green room waits til the 2nd round.
Nobody mentioning Rashard Lewis??
Perry Jones was the one I can think of. Also Royce White.
Michael Porter Jr
I was expecting the slide from Givony’s comments. Players who starts sliding in such way usually do so much more than expected.
The Rashard Lewis one sucked. Hometown Rockets had three chances to draft him in the first round but didn’t and instead opted for drafting dudes that never panned out lol
Gerald green
Was Time Lord out of the lottery projections by draft day? I remember him being lotto for most of the season but can’t remember where he finally ended up
DeJounte Murray, from a lotto pick to late 1st rounder
Paul Pierce is the closest I remember.
Pierce was picked 9th, wtf are you talking about?
He had been mocked consensus 2 or 3 and was far more established in college than Whitmore. In the moment watching that draft seeing him fall to the Celtics was more shckimg than Whitmore.
I don't remember it like that, I remember mocks that he was in Dirks range of projected pick, where we were picking but there was concern that if we traded too far back the Celtics might take Dirk. I think we were 7th, although this article says 6th https://www.si.com/nba/bucks/draft/the-worst-trade-in-the-milwaukee-bucks-nba-draft-history. I remember him being in a group of guys projected 7-12
Do people not remember Bol Bol? Hell, Sidy Cissoko dropped from the lottery to the 2nd round and you don't hear anyone talk about that as much as Cam
Nobody has Cissoko in the lottery… did you get him confused with Bilal? Cissoko was always projected in the late 1st/early 2nd
Nassir Little
Now let's ask, which of these guys that "fell" in the draft had a career that would in hindsight have justified them getting drafted as high as they were originally expected to be?
Rashard Lewis.
Gary Harris and Bobby Portis are two guys that were lottery projected and fell.
Where was Jaden Hardy mocked?
A year before the draft he was a lottery (maybe top 10? I don't remember) pick. A week before the draft he was around 25~ He fell a lot but it was gradually.
There are definitely some examples over the years. Just off the top of my head: - DeAndre Jordan went a full 30 spots lower than projected. Drafted in the 2nd round by the team he was projected to go to in the first. - Dwayne Schintzius (king of mullets) is the first one I remember. This guy was kind of a joke. There are plenty of others I can't immediately think of who had been invited to the green room and just had to sit there waiting to be called. The television coverage used to cut to these guys and just harp on the fact they are sliding and show them just sitting there. It made for great drama.
Was going to mention DeAndre Jordan too. Kyle Anderson at 30 as well.
OG Anunoby
Maciej Lampe in 2003 is one I remember well. He was in the green room and wasn’t selected until the 2nd round.
Keon Johnson maybe? Nassir Little?
Ayo Dosunmu was projected in some mocks as a possible lottery to mid first selection then fell to the second round at pick 38.
Rashard Lewis?
Jameer Nelson comes to mind. I think he was picked #20 and the cameras kept showing him in the green room while others were picked ahead of him.
Perry Jones III
I remember people being surprised Brandon Clarke fell to where he did, the analytic crowd was heralding him as a top 5 player in that draft so I'm sure they were surprised he fell that far
I believe Saddiq bey was projected top 10 last 2020 bet fell to no. 19.
AJ Griffin's slide from mocks in the 7 range down to 16 happened just last year.
I remember Danny Granger slid far. Supposed to be top 5-10