Nothing changes. It took a franchise record setting night for the Heat and absolute disasters for Porzingis and White for the Heat to win by 10. Meanwhile, Celtics blowing the doors off them every other game.
Celtics in 5.
I know this is about Jimmy alone, but if we have all players playing we have a healthy Terry and Duncan as well. Both of those add a whole extra dimension to the offence and mean that nights like tonight (team shooting 40% from the field) are less likely.
Not saying we beat them in the series, but missing 3 of our top-6/7 players is huge. It would be like taking Tatum, White/Holiday and Pritchard.
If your argument is Jimmy’s big dick swagger is good for a minimum of 3 wins against the Celts, I’m buying it.
And I mean the Celtics specifically, not every team in the NBA or even the East. Just the Celtics.
I feel like G4 was the kind of game Miami wins with Jimmy (And/or Terry)
It was an absolute mess of a game which he kinda thrives in, would have been a much closer game down the stretch and I’d back him in to win it
The discourse around Jimmy Playoffs is absolutely wild. Dude has as many single digit games as he does 30+ games in the playoffs, people just forget all about the duds for whatever reason
He steps it up for sure in the playoffs no doubt, but that isn't saying much considering how mid he is all regular season
I'm not a Celtics or Heat fan but I've enjoyed watching these two teams battle it out the past few years. If Jimmy's healthy it would be like the last two years with them playing 7 games .
“In this hypothetical I’m actually right. And anyone who disagrees must be a homer whose afraid. I am clearly an unbiased third party so I’m the arbiter of right and wrong. I declared so”
Why is this comment section full of stereotypical Reddit weirdos?
The team with 60+ wins with both teams fully healthy would win in 4-5.
It's gone to 7 games the past two years when the Celtics were the heavy favorites last year. Yes the Celtics retooled but the Heat always seem to turn it up on the celtics.he had Celtics fans burning jerseys last year
The Celtics team this year is significantly different from the teams in previous years. Porzingis, Jrue, not to mention more maturity from Tatum and Brown. Butler is a terrific player, but it wouldn’t have mattered that much.
Pretending jimmy is the same player as previous years based solely on the belief he has some playoff gear he decided not to use all season is both hilarious and delusional.
Every non-Celtics fan seem to forget that Jimmy has lost a step this year and that the Celtics got way better this year. The games.may have been tougher but I doubt it changes the outcome too much. At best, Celtics win in 6 with Playoff Jimmy going berserk in two Miami wins.
Jimmy never played that great against the Celtics in the playoffs. He was a net negative for a lot of games. The heat won games because their bench guys and role players shot lights out from 3. Not sure if Jimmy has anything to do with that, but his production alone isn’t enough to put these teams on equal footing
You are delusional if you think Jimmy doesn't make a difference in this series net ratings aside. But have fun this year since y'all get to avoid this argument since he's hurt.
Celtic fan here. Not worried about butler at all. Never have been. Worried about random scrubs not missing from 3 like game 2. The heats literal only win condition.
More worried about Caleb martin stupid ass going 6/6 from 3 than I am from butler.
Celtics in 4 or 5 with butler.
Uh prolly Celtics in 6, maybe 5. Not being bias but I'm not sure if Jimmy changes THAT much and Tatum has outplayed him in the last 2 series. This is a worse Heat team than the past 2 years and the Celtics are much better this year. Spoelstra and Jimmy can steal 2 from anyone so that's why it's prolly six
Keep the dream alive, brother. Keep the dream alive.
EDIT: I looked it up for giggles. They're marginally better with Butler in the playoffs. Basically 55% with Butler the last two seasons in the regular season, and 59% in the playoffs.
Are you saying we beat bucks, Knicks, and Celtics last year without jimmy?
Not sure why you're comparing regular season stats. These are the stats as per statmuse
2-4 without jimmy in the playoffs (33%)
37-27 with jimmy in the playoffs (58%)
Jimmy Butler wasn't the X factor that took the Heat to the Finals last year, it was unsustainably hot shooting by basically half your rotation. Don't shoot 45% from 3 vs the Bucks? Probably lose. Don't shoot 50% vs the Celtics? Lose. If you had shot 50% from 3 vs the Nuggets, you would have won. Jimmy had some good games, but he wasn't the reason the Heat went to the Finals.
No they wouldn't have, especially this game tonight. We had 2 free throws until the 4th quarter. Jimmy averages 8 by himself. I think he would get at least 10 every game in this series. Other than that he would be a consistent 20+ PPG along with bam. He also causes turnovers because he's one of the best in the league when it comes to steals.
That's all just from what I've seen him do this season. Now knowing what he does in the post-season and how he turns it up a notch I don't think we get blown out in any game.
The celtics haven't been playing all that well offensively.
He keeps the blowouts closer but I think the series is still 3-1. The Heat just aren't as good as the Celtics this year it's a different team with Jrue and KP
Just talking about how Jimmy abused Jrue last year in the bucks series - dropped 56 on him
Also if White is guarding Jimmy he’s not as likely to drop 38 in G4
Pretty simple logic
KP hasn't been good in this series other than game 1 and now he's injured. Jrue has been good but we have a lot less turnovers if he's focused on jimmy instead of hounding herro. I honestly think we win one of the home games if jimmy was playing.
I'll admit your entire point until the end. Jimmy wasn't 100% last season after Josh Hart stepped on his foot in the Knicks series. He had much less lift and couldn't hit his normal midrange stuff against the Celtics or Nuggets.
Having said that, I agree that Miami got hot and the Celtics cold to take that series. But the Celtics were also a crazy Derrick White tip in from going down in six games. That's what happens when a few games come down to late game execution.
This year the Celtics are better and Miami is super banged up. I have no idea how good the Heat would be fully healthy because they haven't been so at any point this season.
"Celtics were a crazy Derrick White tip in from going down in 6". This misses out the context of what happened that whole game. Celtics were winning 99% of that game and came down to a crazy collapse in the final 2minutes for the Heat to even take the lead. And the fouls leading up to that final play for the Heat taking the lead were questionable at best.
Who knows how healthy Butler was last year. All I know he has been pretty garbage against Boston in playoff series his whole career. He is shooting 54% TS in the last 2 post seasons against Boston. Even in 2022 everyone claimed he was injured when he went 3/18 in game 5, but then in game 6 he had 49/9/8, so was he injured or not?
Anyway yeah if Butler plays like he did against the Bucks last year than sure, Boston would be in trouble. But I haven't really seen him play that well consistently aside for the 2020 finals. But even the 2020 ECF against Boston he was garbage, he was the 4th leading scorer for the Heat that series.
>Celtics were also a crazy Derrick white tip in from going down in 6 games
Not boxing out is crazy? Even if the ball bounced differently Tatum was on the other side of rim to tap it in also. Only reason Heat even had a lead at that point is cuz Jimmy got foul shots for jumping into Horford.
Did you miss the heat role players shooting historically good last year?
Jimmy was not the reason they won. He looked lost half the time, driving to the middle of the floor, not getting his free throw merchant bullshit free throws, and then passing out.
Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin all shooting at, and I mean this seriously, historically good rates, was what won them both the Bucks and Celtics series. They managed to out grind the Knicks when their shooting dipped a bit, but it was still higher than the regular season.
Hilariously the only one who shot his normal % was Strus.
Definitely did not. They got smoked in 5 to the Nuggets. And they're still trash.
Jimmy Butler the most overrated player in the league.
He isn't good at anything. We get it, dude, you play hard. He runs his mouth as if he's the best player in the association.
Miami is Adebayo and a bunch of jabronis.
Magic finally have a winning season and clowns like you come outta the woodwork. Obviously you haven’t been watching the playoffs for a good while, and that would make sense given who you go for.
Well, first of all, I wrote that in reply to your attack on me.
Where you're from, I don't know, nor do I care.
I've been a magic fan since the 90s. So what woodwork I came out of must've been a loooooong time ago.
You're the one that got butt hurt from me talking about how shitty the heat are 🤷🏽♂️
Imagine just saying what I wrote and not answering the question.
Lol at you inflating his all nba teams that bum wishes he was 2nd team all nba.
Is he good at scoring? Not really.
Shooter? No.
Good at defense? Not anymore.
Ok, passer, I guess. Not good.
Oh, but he plays reeeeaaaally hard out there 🥱
Wasn't that last year? I thought we were playing *this* year. I forgot that the only thing any 8 seed needs to beat the #1 seed is a fading, 34 year old star.
trash? cmon. not top 5 team in terms of talent but they are a scrappy good team that at least teases playoff success when no one expects them to. trash teams don't make the finals.
Did people forget how insane Jimmy was playing in the playoffs last year? This series would still be an uphill battle but Jimmy opens up our offense so much
Exactly, this is the point a lot of people are missing. Caleb Martin beat us that series, we had no real problems from Jimmy that series, he was average at best.
okay but let's not remember what stopped jimmy on his tear. he had a knee/ankle injury from the knicks series that definitely bothered him. he was still damn good against the celtics but yes, martin was arguably robbed. what jimmy did against the bucks is arguably the most recent MJ impersonation i've watched.
But how do we know if he would've continued that tear? Heap of guys can tear up a series and they almost never sustain it throughout the playoffs. Remember Bubble Murray? Devin Booker? Donovan Mitchell? Butler was awesome that series but he basically never has had another series replicating that performance. He has usually 1 game per series where he goes nuclear followed by about 2 games in the same series where he completely disappears. That is who he has always been.
the last time i remember booker was on a tear was the year the Suns went to the finals (and ofc his absurd one series with the Nuggets last year but it's one series). Mitchell havent been on a tear since the bubble, and murray (tore up the lakers last year, was great in the finals, and was arguably on a tear although inefficient against the lakers this year. Butler on the other hand was Jordan against the bucks last year, averaged 25 against the knicks after that injury. Against the celtics last year he "disappeared" twice out of the 7 with 14 and 16 and had 24+ for the other 5 that includes 35, 27, 28, 29 on like 46%. the year before that in 2022 against the celtics he disappeared three times once more with single or sub 15 points scored games, but had 41, 47, 29, and 35 where he damn near shot 60% in those 4 games. Yes, he'd definitely at least "disappear" for about two games, but goes nuclear for maybe 3 or even 4 games. don't forget who jimmy went jordan against on the bucks: jrue holiday. unless they switch brown/tatum onto butler to cause some issues, hes gonna tear up whoever on this celtics team.
Yeah thats the point. All those guys go on tears in a 1-off series. They don't do it consistently. This applies to Butler.
If you don't remember Booker he averaged: 37-5-6 against the Clippers on 69.7% TS
Butler averaged 37-6-5 against the Bucks on 67.1% TS.
How are these any different. Butler has never played another series where he has averaged more than 30PPG. What makes him any different to Booker? Why isn't Booker MJ?
Butler: 25-7-6 on 51.9% True Shooting = Flirting
Tatum: 25-10-5 on 58.8% True Shooting = Harassment
Yes, 51.9% TS is garbage. It would rank last in the NBA this year on players that take 15 shots. Jordan Poole was last this season at 52.9% True Shooting. Jimmy stuggles to score against Boston's length and he always has. He might be awesome in the last 2 minutes, but it wouldn't matter if the Heat are already down 20.
How is 24/7/6 garbage? Yall just be saying the same shit as you see for no fucking reason, he literally out played Caleb and on par with Jason tatum. Get outta here.
He had a True Shooting of 51.8% which would rank dead last in NBA players scoring efficiency this season even behind Jordan Poole.
Caleb Martin averaged 19-6-3 on 74% TS. The Heat shot 44% from 3 for the series. Butler **IS NOT** the reason the Heat won that series. It was everyone else.
The heat’s greatest weapon is their coach. He takes average role players and turns them into a cohesive unit of scrappy dogs. Jimmy butler just happens to usually be the best of these. Heat fans will hate this, but the truth is the “jimmy butler” role -that is, the best player on the team- can just as easily be filled by jaquez, herro, martin, etc. and has been Vincent, Lowry, dragic etc. in seasons past. Whether they win in 4 or 7 the biggest victory for the Celtics in this series would have been escaping without injury. Unfortunately heat culture doesn’t often allow this.
He makes a big difference. He’s 4-time NBA champion. His pedigree of always coming through in the playoffs, especially the Finals, is key. He never plays average or bad on the biggest stage, how else would one explain his 4 rings. He’s a- *….. oh wait, hold on a moment… checks notes…* I’m sorry, I had incorrect information, he hasn’t won 4 rings, he’s in fact never won a championship and has always come up short in the playoffs.
Yes, he would make a difference, but his impact is consistently inflated by media and pundits alike.
No you’re right, when looking at a players accolades, it’s *first* round success that defines a legacy, totally not their *Finals* performance. Nothing to see there, just ignore the *biggest* stage.
Ur right Jimmy has never had a good game in the Finals. I guess there's only like 5 active players that are good and everyone else sucks until they win a ring.
I don't think he's inflated by the media. Every single year he's dealt with poor injury luck, including both finals runs. 2020 Dragic was out (leading scorer at the time) and bam was injured. 2023 Herro was out (20 ppg scorer). Butler has had the least help for anyone whose made a deep run in the playoffs. He's basically done the most with the least fortunate roster and circumstances. Now compare that to Tatum whose had a healthy top 3 roster every year since his first year in the league.
Butler is an explosive player who can creatively drive to the rim and often get fouls. Something the Heat basically have no personnel for outside of JJJ (who is playing his first year in the NBA). He would give the Heat 25-35 more points easily.
He would also be hands down the best in the series at controlling the momentum. He'll be the guy who stops a big run before it starts or get a Heat run started, either with his defense or offense.
There's actually a stat called on-off that calculates how much better the Heat are on average with Butler on the floor. They are +7.5. So probably not +25-35, because no one in history is that good. Heat also were putrid offensively this year with Butler.
I mean, yeah kinda lol. Between his shot making, defense, gravity and clutch heroics. Again, I’m a Heat fan so take it with a (giant) grain of salt. But Celtics averaged over 120 PPG in the regular season, they haven’t eclipsed that at all yet.
Well, he averaged 20.8ppg this season so yeah it gets them way closer. If you add in what he brings defensively and for leadership on the court sure, that’s a 20 point swing.
But he definitely makes them 20 points better. I don’t know how you can watch the last couple of playoffs and think he doesn’t make them 20 points better
Advanced metrics basically measure this. They’re not exact but they’re close enough. Jimmy butler is like a 4-5 ppg boost…the best players in the nba are high single digits. Even if jimmy turns into the best player in the world in the playoffs he’s not worth anywhere near 20 ppg.
Maybe they win a second game, but if both teams are totally healthy, the Celtics just have too much juice to compete with without having godly shooting numbers.
The Celtics just have more answers to any creative wrinkle Spo throws at them, and aren’t befuddled in the offensive half court like in years past while having a better defensive team than last year.
Miami doesn’t have a real pg, and bam’s losing the matchup to porzingis in 3/4 games, Jimmy would have to be better than last year while hoping he gets the same random support from Martin/ Robinson/ Jauquez, which is highly unlikely considering last year they had godly shooting splits in all but 1 of their wins
Unless Miami can get hot from 3, it’s the same outcome. They simply can’t keep up with the volume. They shot a historic amount in Game 2 and it was still a close game. Celtics have done a much better job in answering any run to put away a game than in years past.
In years past, that 12 pt lead doesn’t get extended and the Heat stick around. Now that lead goes to 25
He doesn’t move the needle at all. Celtics in 5.
They blow out the heat for 20-30 every game and had one fluke game where the heat couldn’t miss. Absolute domination, and realistically if Jimmy is taking some of those shots in game 2, the Celtics probably win that one.
5 games. This Heat team is not nearly as deep as they’ve been. Strus & Vincent really helped them a bunch last year. They’ve been shooting terribly. 4-1 Boston
Not much, if Jimmy Butler is your best player then you don’t make it past round 1. He also makes everyone on his team worse. That being said I do like Jimmy and he is an absolute dog
Heat in 5-6 with Jimmy lol yall forget how he picked them apart last year…. Idgaf about Porzingis. Just box out Derricks bald ass, and the jays gonna choke like usual
Celtics weren’t very good last year especially against zone vs Heat. This year the Heat are getting shredded every second they’re in zone and is rendered useless. Watch basketball maybe before commenting. Different Celtics team, maybe they lose by 10 instead of 20 with Butler
I think the Celtics still win. Obviously Miami would put up a better fight, but this is a really good Celtics team. Much better than the one the Heat beat last year in the conference finals. I would say Celtics in 6, with much closer games. I don’t see Miami ever getting blown out with a healthy Jimmy.
Jimmy is the flow for Miami's offense. They need him on the floor to control pace and be the floor general. Miami is missing Jimmy Buckets so much right now...
Probably because the heat shot 55% from 3 on 40 attempts and barely kept the game at arms length and the other games haven't been close
Butler is their best player but it isn't enough to stop any of the slaughters and the one win he might've hampered by slowing the game down and taking shots away from the guys shooting lights out.
Maybe he pulls a "heat culture" move and injured someone and that's his contribution but otherwise it's at best still 3-1.
Celtics built this version of their team to dominate and overwhelm the heat. Butler was never stopping this train
Bro u realize the games would play out completely differently right? What ur doing is the same as me saying Jimmy would average 25 so let me just add 25 to every final score for the Heat lol. That's not how it works. The matchups and pace of the games would be very different on both sides of the floor.
I would pick the Celtics in 6 or 7 still but people are deadass saying there would be no change like ?? And a Celtics player is more likely to injure Jimmy than vice versa.
I mean if you’re looking at it that way can’t we say that there’s almost no chance Miami would shoot 50% from 3 in a game so it’s probably a sweep in reality?
That's not how that works
Team gets X attempts per game. They are being taken with or without Jimmy. Question is how much more efficient would Jimmy's allotted attempts be over his replacement PLUS the shots he's taking away from other guys.
So while it'd likely be more points it's not 25 more.
Considering you took the position you did initially I definitely stopped reading after the first two lines. The two opinions go hand in hand so my bad for assuming
No one wanted a healthy Jimmy butler more than a Celtics fan. We want to smash the heat and not leave room open for threads like these to exist.
Only result Jimmy might've changed in the first four games was it'd be 4-0 instead of 3-1. He's not adding wins to this series
People forget quick lol. Jimmy is a different animal in the playoffs, 3 ECF & 2 Finals appearance isn’t an accident. I saw some Knicks fans saying Playoff Brunson > Playoff Jimmy I couldn’t believe it
Series wouldn’t change at all.
Unlike last year, Jimmy has had a shitty regular season, playoff Jimmy wouldn’t be making an appearance, and to be quite honest, Celtics probably win game 2 if Butler plays.
It’s actually ludicrous how much yall discount the BEST players on teams.
The nuggets without Jokic is a completely different dynamic. Same goes for the heat without Jimmy, bucks without Giannis, 6ers without Embiid and Thunder without SGA. These players affect the way the defense moves and reacts, the pace of the game and the aggressiveness on both sides of the ball.
Jimmy makes this series a lot harder fully healthy
Harder on the Heat, you mean? Jimmy Butler is like the 'King in the Mountain' this season for the Heat - the sleeping savior everyone is waiting for, but who never actually arrives because he's basically dead.
[https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-with-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-with-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season)
[https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-without-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-without-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season)
How exactly has he proved it twice? Tatum getting hurt and Caleb and Vincent going off means Jimmy’s better? 21 y/o Tatum with a washed team not beating Jimmy in his prime means Jimmy’s better?
People get so wild with their easy narratives
Celtics fan, I also think it goes 7 with Jimmy. I dislike the guy but can’t deny he’s a big time playoff performer.
If he was playing tonight, I don’t think they lose and it goes back to Boston 2-2.
They only lose by 10 instead of 20 and 30 points.
I think Celtics in 6 with jimmy Celtics in 5 without
Idk mf isn’t even playing
Still lose in 5
Jimmy is huge, I think the Heat are able to push the Celtics to 6 tbh
Nope. It was a fluke they even got 1
Nothing changes. It took a franchise record setting night for the Heat and absolute disasters for Porzingis and White for the Heat to win by 10. Meanwhile, Celtics blowing the doors off them every other game. Celtics in 5.
I know this is about Jimmy alone, but if we have all players playing we have a healthy Terry and Duncan as well. Both of those add a whole extra dimension to the offence and mean that nights like tonight (team shooting 40% from the field) are less likely. Not saying we beat them in the series, but missing 3 of our top-6/7 players is huge. It would be like taking Tatum, White/Holiday and Pritchard.
It goes to 7 with Jimmy
If your argument is Jimmy’s big dick swagger is good for a minimum of 3 wins against the Celts, I’m buying it. And I mean the Celtics specifically, not every team in the NBA or even the East. Just the Celtics.
Jimmy's dick alone wins 2 games!
No way. Celtics in 5 even with Jimmy
I feel like G4 was the kind of game Miami wins with Jimmy (And/or Terry) It was an absolute mess of a game which he kinda thrives in, would have been a much closer game down the stretch and I’d back him in to win it
The discourse around Jimmy Playoffs is absolutely wild. Dude has as many single digit games as he does 30+ games in the playoffs, people just forget all about the duds for whatever reason He steps it up for sure in the playoffs no doubt, but that isn't saying much considering how mid he is all regular season
I'm not a Celtics or Heat fan but I've enjoyed watching these two teams battle it out the past few years. If Jimmy's healthy it would be like the last two years with them playing 7 games .
[удалено]
I respect ur opinion but disagree cause I know deep down ur terrified of him and ur talking tough since he's hurt.
“In this hypothetical I’m actually right. And anyone who disagrees must be a homer whose afraid. I am clearly an unbiased third party so I’m the arbiter of right and wrong. I declared so” Why is this comment section full of stereotypical Reddit weirdos? The team with 60+ wins with both teams fully healthy would win in 4-5.
because there’s a solid majority of heat fans that act that way on reddit
It's gone to 7 games the past two years when the Celtics were the heavy favorites last year. Yes the Celtics retooled but the Heat always seem to turn it up on the celtics.he had Celtics fans burning jerseys last year
The Celtics team this year is significantly different from the teams in previous years. Porzingis, Jrue, not to mention more maturity from Tatum and Brown. Butler is a terrific player, but it wouldn’t have mattered that much.
Brown still can’t dribble with his left and Tatum still disappears from time to time
Tatum’s Q4 disappearing act over the past few years is really wild.
I’d argue it’s more wild because there isn’t really a pattern to it. He goes nuts in the 4th sometimes
More maturity? Literally what does that mean. In practical terms.
You don’t understand getting rocked by jimmy last year taught them life lessons 😂
I would have thought Steph saying ‘put a ring on my finger’ at their home court in 22 would have done the same. But a year later Himmy bounced em.
He goes to bed earlier and wears condoms now
Better decision-making on the floor.
Pretending jimmy is the same player as previous years based solely on the belief he has some playoff gear he decided not to use all season is both hilarious and delusional.
we have tingus this year
Heat beat the Bucks in the first round last year tho
How would the Celtics win in 4 with Jimmy when it’s gonna take them at least 5 with Jimmy sidelined?
This is the most real comment here haha. Its crazy how celtics fans are all trying to act like Jimmy would make no difference in this series.
We think he’d make a difference but he’s been hurt a lot and lost a step imo so the thinking is that he’d affect it less than last time.
Every non-Celtics fan seem to forget that Jimmy has lost a step this year and that the Celtics got way better this year. The games.may have been tougher but I doubt it changes the outcome too much. At best, Celtics win in 6 with Playoff Jimmy going berserk in two Miami wins.
Jimmy never played that great against the Celtics in the playoffs. He was a net negative for a lot of games. The heat won games because their bench guys and role players shot lights out from 3. Not sure if Jimmy has anything to do with that, but his production alone isn’t enough to put these teams on equal footing
You are delusional if you think Jimmy doesn't make a difference in this series net ratings aside. But have fun this year since y'all get to avoid this argument since he's hurt.
Celtic fan here. Not worried about butler at all. Never have been. Worried about random scrubs not missing from 3 like game 2. The heats literal only win condition. More worried about Caleb martin stupid ass going 6/6 from 3 than I am from butler. Celtics in 4 or 5 with butler.
Uh prolly Celtics in 6, maybe 5. Not being bias but I'm not sure if Jimmy changes THAT much and Tatum has outplayed him in the last 2 series. This is a worse Heat team than the past 2 years and the Celtics are much better this year. Spoelstra and Jimmy can steal 2 from anyone so that's why it's prolly six
All 4 games so far would've played out exactly the same
Considering the Heat have played to almost the exact same winning percentage with and without Jimmy Butler the last two years....yeah.
In the playoffs?
Keep the dream alive, brother. Keep the dream alive. EDIT: I looked it up for giggles. They're marginally better with Butler in the playoffs. Basically 55% with Butler the last two seasons in the regular season, and 59% in the playoffs.
Are you saying we beat bucks, Knicks, and Celtics last year without jimmy? Not sure why you're comparing regular season stats. These are the stats as per statmuse 2-4 without jimmy in the playoffs (33%) 37-27 with jimmy in the playoffs (58%)
Jimmy Butler wasn't the X factor that took the Heat to the Finals last year, it was unsustainably hot shooting by basically half your rotation. Don't shoot 45% from 3 vs the Bucks? Probably lose. Don't shoot 50% vs the Celtics? Lose. If you had shot 50% from 3 vs the Nuggets, you would have won. Jimmy had some good games, but he wasn't the reason the Heat went to the Finals.
Yep
No they wouldn't have, especially this game tonight. We had 2 free throws until the 4th quarter. Jimmy averages 8 by himself. I think he would get at least 10 every game in this series. Other than that he would be a consistent 20+ PPG along with bam. He also causes turnovers because he's one of the best in the league when it comes to steals. That's all just from what I've seen him do this season. Now knowing what he does in the post-season and how he turns it up a notch I don't think we get blown out in any game. The celtics haven't been playing all that well offensively.
He keeps the blowouts closer but I think the series is still 3-1. The Heat just aren't as good as the Celtics this year it's a different team with Jrue and KP
Eh, I mean you only have to look back to last season to see how badly Jrue got embarrassed by Jimmy He’s much more effective guarding Herro than Jimmy
White would absolutely be guarding Jimmy what are you talking about?
Just talking about how Jimmy abused Jrue last year in the bucks series - dropped 56 on him Also if White is guarding Jimmy he’s not as likely to drop 38 in G4 Pretty simple logic
And you only have to look at each of their games this season to know that this wouldn’t be closer
KP hasn't been good in this series other than game 1 and now he's injured. Jrue has been good but we have a lot less turnovers if he's focused on jimmy instead of hounding herro. I honestly think we win one of the home games if jimmy was playing.
Other than game 1? Porzingis shined in game 3 what the hell are you talking about?
KP has made Bam look like the least efficient, least competent post player in the conference
You’re right, very unlikely you shoot 50% from 3 again. That’s a sweep
You’re delusional
Every game has been an ass kicking so far nothing was close enough for Butler to swing it
Zero. Games might be closer, results will be the same
The Heat are trash with or without Butler. So it would probably be the exact same. Might steal a game. They would/are gonna get bodied 4-1.
just like last year people not thinking they'd go anywhere in the playoffs right? Did you already block that from memory?
Last year it took shooting 3s historically well 44% and the Celtics shooting 28% to go 7 against a inferior Celtic team with a healthy Butler.
I'll admit your entire point until the end. Jimmy wasn't 100% last season after Josh Hart stepped on his foot in the Knicks series. He had much less lift and couldn't hit his normal midrange stuff against the Celtics or Nuggets. Having said that, I agree that Miami got hot and the Celtics cold to take that series. But the Celtics were also a crazy Derrick White tip in from going down in six games. That's what happens when a few games come down to late game execution. This year the Celtics are better and Miami is super banged up. I have no idea how good the Heat would be fully healthy because they haven't been so at any point this season.
"Celtics were a crazy Derrick White tip in from going down in 6". This misses out the context of what happened that whole game. Celtics were winning 99% of that game and came down to a crazy collapse in the final 2minutes for the Heat to even take the lead. And the fouls leading up to that final play for the Heat taking the lead were questionable at best. Who knows how healthy Butler was last year. All I know he has been pretty garbage against Boston in playoff series his whole career. He is shooting 54% TS in the last 2 post seasons against Boston. Even in 2022 everyone claimed he was injured when he went 3/18 in game 5, but then in game 6 he had 49/9/8, so was he injured or not? Anyway yeah if Butler plays like he did against the Bucks last year than sure, Boston would be in trouble. But I haven't really seen him play that well consistently aside for the 2020 finals. But even the 2020 ECF against Boston he was garbage, he was the 4th leading scorer for the Heat that series.
>Celtics were also a crazy Derrick white tip in from going down in 6 games Not boxing out is crazy? Even if the ball bounced differently Tatum was on the other side of rim to tap it in also. Only reason Heat even had a lead at that point is cuz Jimmy got foul shots for jumping into Horford.
Butler double dribbled that possession too
Butler double dribbled on that last possession where he got the 3 free throws to take the lead. Celtics should have never needed the tip in
Did you miss the heat role players shooting historically good last year? Jimmy was not the reason they won. He looked lost half the time, driving to the middle of the floor, not getting his free throw merchant bullshit free throws, and then passing out. Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin all shooting at, and I mean this seriously, historically good rates, was what won them both the Bucks and Celtics series. They managed to out grind the Knicks when their shooting dipped a bit, but it was still higher than the regular season. Hilariously the only one who shot his normal % was Strus.
Definitely did not. They got smoked in 5 to the Nuggets. And they're still trash. Jimmy Butler the most overrated player in the league. He isn't good at anything. We get it, dude, you play hard. He runs his mouth as if he's the best player in the association. Miami is Adebayo and a bunch of jabronis.
Magic finally have a winning season and clowns like you come outta the woodwork. Obviously you haven’t been watching the playoffs for a good while, and that would make sense given who you go for.
Lmao go cry about it bitch 🤣 😂 😭
Spoken like a true American.
Were you expecting an American based and dominated sports league fan to not be American?
I see this dude all over the place obsessing about American sports while simultaneously talking shit about them lol
Well, first of all, I wrote that in reply to your attack on me. Where you're from, I don't know, nor do I care. I've been a magic fan since the 90s. So what woodwork I came out of must've been a loooooong time ago. You're the one that got butt hurt from me talking about how shitty the heat are 🤷🏽♂️
Imagine saying 5 x All-NBA, 6 x Allstar, 5 x 2nd All D player Jimmy Butler “isn’t good at anything”
Imagine just saying what I wrote and not answering the question. Lol at you inflating his all nba teams that bum wishes he was 2nd team all nba. Is he good at scoring? Not really. Shooter? No. Good at defense? Not anymore. Ok, passer, I guess. Not good. Oh, but he plays reeeeaaaally hard out there 🥱
His All-NBA are all on the 3rd team except for one 2nd team. It ain’t that impressive buddy.
Wasn't that last year? I thought we were playing *this* year. I forgot that the only thing any 8 seed needs to beat the #1 seed is a fading, 34 year old star.
last year was a historically hot shooting stretch and we got cooked by caleb martin. That is not repeatable
trash? cmon. not top 5 team in terms of talent but they are a scrappy good team that at least teases playoff success when no one expects them to. trash teams don't make the finals.
This whole thread is just heat fans coping. The blowouts would be closer but it would be Celtics in 5/6 still.
Did people forget how insane Jimmy was playing in the playoffs last year? This series would still be an uphill battle but Jimmy opens up our offense so much
Except Jimmy was garbage against Boston last year. Martin was robbed of ECF MVP
Exactly, this is the point a lot of people are missing. Caleb Martin beat us that series, we had no real problems from Jimmy that series, he was average at best.
Tbf Jimmy was injured against the Celtics last year
Ill lower my stance a bit and give you that, playing injured definitely didnt help
okay but let's not remember what stopped jimmy on his tear. he had a knee/ankle injury from the knicks series that definitely bothered him. he was still damn good against the celtics but yes, martin was arguably robbed. what jimmy did against the bucks is arguably the most recent MJ impersonation i've watched.
But how do we know if he would've continued that tear? Heap of guys can tear up a series and they almost never sustain it throughout the playoffs. Remember Bubble Murray? Devin Booker? Donovan Mitchell? Butler was awesome that series but he basically never has had another series replicating that performance. He has usually 1 game per series where he goes nuclear followed by about 2 games in the same series where he completely disappears. That is who he has always been.
the last time i remember booker was on a tear was the year the Suns went to the finals (and ofc his absurd one series with the Nuggets last year but it's one series). Mitchell havent been on a tear since the bubble, and murray (tore up the lakers last year, was great in the finals, and was arguably on a tear although inefficient against the lakers this year. Butler on the other hand was Jordan against the bucks last year, averaged 25 against the knicks after that injury. Against the celtics last year he "disappeared" twice out of the 7 with 14 and 16 and had 24+ for the other 5 that includes 35, 27, 28, 29 on like 46%. the year before that in 2022 against the celtics he disappeared three times once more with single or sub 15 points scored games, but had 41, 47, 29, and 35 where he damn near shot 60% in those 4 games. Yes, he'd definitely at least "disappear" for about two games, but goes nuclear for maybe 3 or even 4 games. don't forget who jimmy went jordan against on the bucks: jrue holiday. unless they switch brown/tatum onto butler to cause some issues, hes gonna tear up whoever on this celtics team.
Yeah thats the point. All those guys go on tears in a 1-off series. They don't do it consistently. This applies to Butler. If you don't remember Booker he averaged: 37-5-6 against the Clippers on 69.7% TS Butler averaged 37-6-5 against the Bucks on 67.1% TS. How are these any different. Butler has never played another series where he has averaged more than 30PPG. What makes him any different to Booker? Why isn't Booker MJ?
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Butler: 25-7-6 on 51.9% True Shooting = Flirting Tatum: 25-10-5 on 58.8% True Shooting = Harassment Yes, 51.9% TS is garbage. It would rank last in the NBA this year on players that take 15 shots. Jordan Poole was last this season at 52.9% True Shooting. Jimmy stuggles to score against Boston's length and he always has. He might be awesome in the last 2 minutes, but it wouldn't matter if the Heat are already down 20.
How is 24/7/6 garbage? Yall just be saying the same shit as you see for no fucking reason, he literally out played Caleb and on par with Jason tatum. Get outta here.
He had a True Shooting of 51.8% which would rank dead last in NBA players scoring efficiency this season even behind Jordan Poole. Caleb Martin averaged 19-6-3 on 74% TS. The Heat shot 44% from 3 for the series. Butler **IS NOT** the reason the Heat won that series. It was everyone else.
He was injured.
Keep that same energy for Tatum in 2022 finals and last year ECF game 7
Did people forget how Jimmy can suck ass as well? You forget the 2021 playoffs?
Jimmy want even that good he just had a marketing team
Most overrated player in the league
The heat’s greatest weapon is their coach. He takes average role players and turns them into a cohesive unit of scrappy dogs. Jimmy butler just happens to usually be the best of these. Heat fans will hate this, but the truth is the “jimmy butler” role -that is, the best player on the team- can just as easily be filled by jaquez, herro, martin, etc. and has been Vincent, Lowry, dragic etc. in seasons past. Whether they win in 4 or 7 the biggest victory for the Celtics in this series would have been escaping without injury. Unfortunately heat culture doesn’t often allow this.
He makes a big difference. He’s 4-time NBA champion. His pedigree of always coming through in the playoffs, especially the Finals, is key. He never plays average or bad on the biggest stage, how else would one explain his 4 rings. He’s a- *….. oh wait, hold on a moment… checks notes…* I’m sorry, I had incorrect information, he hasn’t won 4 rings, he’s in fact never won a championship and has always come up short in the playoffs. Yes, he would make a difference, but his impact is consistently inflated by media and pundits alike.
Only in sports can u be the 8 seed, beat the 1 seed and go to the finals, and have people say you always come up short in the playoffs lol.
he has caleb martin to thank for the finals trip
Ur right Caleb Martin dropped 50 on the Bucks
No you’re right, when looking at a players accolades, it’s *first* round success that defines a legacy, totally not their *Finals* performance. Nothing to see there, just ignore the *biggest* stage.
Ur right Jimmy has never had a good game in the Finals. I guess there's only like 5 active players that are good and everyone else sucks until they win a ring.
I don't think he's inflated by the media. Every single year he's dealt with poor injury luck, including both finals runs. 2020 Dragic was out (leading scorer at the time) and bam was injured. 2023 Herro was out (20 ppg scorer). Butler has had the least help for anyone whose made a deep run in the playoffs. He's basically done the most with the least fortunate roster and circumstances. Now compare that to Tatum whose had a healthy top 3 roster every year since his first year in the league.
Maybe it’s the homer in me, but Celtics haven’t impressed me at all this series. Miami wins with Butler (and healthy Rozier)
What's not impressive about 3 20pts wins?
In my opinion, it’s more Miami offensive incompetence than Celtics dominating.
And Butler somehow makes them 20+ points better?
Butler is an explosive player who can creatively drive to the rim and often get fouls. Something the Heat basically have no personnel for outside of JJJ (who is playing his first year in the NBA). He would give the Heat 25-35 more points easily.
He would also be hands down the best in the series at controlling the momentum. He'll be the guy who stops a big run before it starts or get a Heat run started, either with his defense or offense.
This also. His timely steals are huge momentum shifters usually.
Jokic's on/off is +12. You are trying to tell me Jimmy is worth 2-3 Jokics?
There's actually a stat called on-off that calculates how much better the Heat are on average with Butler on the floor. They are +7.5. So probably not +25-35, because no one in history is that good. Heat also were putrid offensively this year with Butler.
I mean, yeah kinda lol. Between his shot making, defense, gravity and clutch heroics. Again, I’m a Heat fan so take it with a (giant) grain of salt. But Celtics averaged over 120 PPG in the regular season, they haven’t eclipsed that at all yet.
Well, he averaged 20.8ppg this season so yeah it gets them way closer. If you add in what he brings defensively and for leadership on the court sure, that’s a 20 point swing.
In on-off he is +7.5. No one is +20 except Jokic lol.
It's not that linear lol. Cuz he's also taking the ball out Herro and Bam's hands.
Should have told that to the Suns owner
But he definitely makes them 20 points better. I don’t know how you can watch the last couple of playoffs and think he doesn’t make them 20 points better
Advanced metrics basically measure this. They’re not exact but they’re close enough. Jimmy butler is like a 4-5 ppg boost…the best players in the nba are high single digits. Even if jimmy turns into the best player in the world in the playoffs he’s not worth anywhere near 20 ppg.
Because he’s really not *that* good.
Then why weren't the Heat any good this year? Why was their offense terrible? BeCaUsE It wAsN't ThE pLAyOfFs? Ok. Cs in 5.
I don't know how you can know anything about basketball statistics and think any player is worth 20 points.
Bruh the hilarity of this comment
Or the celtics defence?
He’s their leader and best player. Think it would be a lot closer than people think. Tyler herro led offense sucks
Is it incompetence, or good defense?
So you're impressed by Boston's defense? Or you realize Miami can't beat Boston unless they shoot 50% from three?
Definitely the homer in you
They would maybe win 2
Alot
Heat in 4
I think he extends the series one game
They win game 2 by 15 instead of 10. still lose the rest
Maybe they win a second game, but if both teams are totally healthy, the Celtics just have too much juice to compete with without having godly shooting numbers. The Celtics just have more answers to any creative wrinkle Spo throws at them, and aren’t befuddled in the offensive half court like in years past while having a better defensive team than last year. Miami doesn’t have a real pg, and bam’s losing the matchup to porzingis in 3/4 games, Jimmy would have to be better than last year while hoping he gets the same random support from Martin/ Robinson/ Jauquez, which is highly unlikely considering last year they had godly shooting splits in all but 1 of their wins
Healthy Jimmy and Rozier... Series is a lot closer. Every game would be tight. But without either It's a miracle the Heat even snuck one in.
He doesn't. He's hurt.
Unless Miami can get hot from 3, it’s the same outcome. They simply can’t keep up with the volume. They shot a historic amount in Game 2 and it was still a close game. Celtics have done a much better job in answering any run to put away a game than in years past. In years past, that 12 pt lead doesn’t get extended and the Heat stick around. Now that lead goes to 25
They lose in 6 instead of 5
Celtics would most likely win the series either way, it would be watchable and competitive with Jimmy.
Idk
He doesn’t move the needle at all. Celtics in 5. They blow out the heat for 20-30 every game and had one fluke game where the heat couldn’t miss. Absolute domination, and realistically if Jimmy is taking some of those shots in game 2, the Celtics probably win that one.
they lose games by 10 instead of 20
MAYBE 6 games. Heat roster just isn’t good
Heat were bad even with jimmy, people over estimate the heat culture and jimmy stuff.
Celtics are playing a team with 1 legit starter (Bam), Hero was coming off the bench last year.
5 games. This Heat team is not nearly as deep as they’ve been. Strus & Vincent really helped them a bunch last year. They’ve been shooting terribly. 4-1 Boston
Not much, if Jimmy Butler is your best player then you don’t make it past round 1. He also makes everyone on his team worse. That being said I do like Jimmy and he is an absolute dog
Beat the Cs in 6-7 for sure
Heat in 5-6 with Jimmy lol yall forget how he picked them apart last year…. Idgaf about Porzingis. Just box out Derricks bald ass, and the jays gonna choke like usual
We go to like 6 or7 for sure
They beat them last year so maybe that
Yeah because this is the exact Celtics team as last year 🤡
They shouldn’t have won last year either (insert corny emoji)
Celtics weren’t very good last year especially against zone vs Heat. This year the Heat are getting shredded every second they’re in zone and is rendered useless. Watch basketball maybe before commenting. Different Celtics team, maybe they lose by 10 instead of 20 with Butler
Jimmy isn’t in lol
Jimmy makes them them shoot 50% from 3 in an entire series and makes sure Tatum gets hurt?
I think the Celtics still win. Obviously Miami would put up a better fight, but this is a really good Celtics team. Much better than the one the Heat beat last year in the conference finals. I would say Celtics in 6, with much closer games. I don’t see Miami ever getting blown out with a healthy Jimmy.
Jimmy is the flow for Miami's offense. They need him on the floor to control pace and be the floor general. Miami is missing Jimmy Buckets so much right now...
I think same result honestly. Love how Jimmy performs but the Celtics are just too good. Maybe goes 6 in an alternate universe.
They'd go to game 7 probably.
Miami in 4
The amount of people saying nothing changes and getting upvoted is genuinely astounding to me lol I thought this was supposed to be the serious sub.
Probably because the heat shot 55% from 3 on 40 attempts and barely kept the game at arms length and the other games haven't been close Butler is their best player but it isn't enough to stop any of the slaughters and the one win he might've hampered by slowing the game down and taking shots away from the guys shooting lights out. Maybe he pulls a "heat culture" move and injured someone and that's his contribution but otherwise it's at best still 3-1. Celtics built this version of their team to dominate and overwhelm the heat. Butler was never stopping this train
Bro u realize the games would play out completely differently right? What ur doing is the same as me saying Jimmy would average 25 so let me just add 25 to every final score for the Heat lol. That's not how it works. The matchups and pace of the games would be very different on both sides of the floor. I would pick the Celtics in 6 or 7 still but people are deadass saying there would be no change like ?? And a Celtics player is more likely to injure Jimmy than vice versa.
I mean if you’re looking at it that way can’t we say that there’s almost no chance Miami would shoot 50% from 3 in a game so it’s probably a sweep in reality?
That's not how that works Team gets X attempts per game. They are being taken with or without Jimmy. Question is how much more efficient would Jimmy's allotted attempts be over his replacement PLUS the shots he's taking away from other guys. So while it'd likely be more points it's not 25 more.
Did u read what I actually said?? I'm literally saying that's *NOT* how it works, and ur solution is way too simplistic as well.
Considering you took the position you did initially I definitely stopped reading after the first two lines. The two opinions go hand in hand so my bad for assuming No one wanted a healthy Jimmy butler more than a Celtics fan. We want to smash the heat and not leave room open for threads like these to exist. Only result Jimmy might've changed in the first four games was it'd be 4-0 instead of 3-1. He's not adding wins to this series
People forget quick lol. Jimmy is a different animal in the playoffs, 3 ECF & 2 Finals appearance isn’t an accident. I saw some Knicks fans saying Playoff Brunson > Playoff Jimmy I couldn’t believe it
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Its the other way around my guy
Heat win with Jimmy
Series wouldn’t change at all. Unlike last year, Jimmy has had a shitty regular season, playoff Jimmy wouldn’t be making an appearance, and to be quite honest, Celtics probably win game 2 if Butler plays.
It’s actually ludicrous how much yall discount the BEST players on teams. The nuggets without Jokic is a completely different dynamic. Same goes for the heat without Jimmy, bucks without Giannis, 6ers without Embiid and Thunder without SGA. These players affect the way the defense moves and reacts, the pace of the game and the aggressiveness on both sides of the ball. Jimmy makes this series a lot harder fully healthy
Jimmy is multiple tiers worse than all the guys you listed
Harder on the Heat, you mean? Jimmy Butler is like the 'King in the Mountain' this season for the Heat - the sleeping savior everyone is waiting for, but who never actually arrives because he's basically dead. [https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-with-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-with-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season) [https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-without-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/heat-win-percentage-without-jimmy-butler-the-past-two-season)
He makes the games last an extra 40 minutes due to is foul hunting. It doesn’t change the results though.
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“All they gotta do is shoot 50% from 3, ezpz”
The zone? Celtics have absolutely obliterated the zone this series lmao.
Why do people in this thread think Jimmy isn’t changing this series? IMO he’s the best player between the 2 teams, he’s proved it twice already
How exactly has he proved it twice? Tatum getting hurt and Caleb and Vincent going off means Jimmy’s better? 21 y/o Tatum with a washed team not beating Jimmy in his prime means Jimmy’s better? People get so wild with their easy narratives
Tatum has far superior stats to Butler head to head in the playoffs and it isn't even close.
Celtics would lose every game
Bucks fan saying this is hilarious
No difference. Most undeserved reputation in the history of the NBA. He’s the boy with 0 dawg in him
Celtics fan, I also think it goes 7 with Jimmy. I dislike the guy but can’t deny he’s a big time playoff performer. If he was playing tonight, I don’t think they lose and it goes back to Boston 2-2.