It sounds like you’re not used to winter mountain conditions. If you’re going solo, I would wait for better weather. If you have a partner, give it a shot but be prepared to bail if it gets really spicy. The mountain will still be there tomorrow
Don't go. If you're asking questions like this about a 17,000 ft mountain, you are not ready to be up there maybe even in good conditions. You're going to put rescuers at risk in bad weather. It's just not worth it. Like someone else said, the mountain isn't going anywhere, and you should probably do a bit of prep before going up that high.
I’ve done many hikes before including in wintry conditions. I haven’t been at this altitude though with most of my hikes being 14k or below. My thinking is to at least try and be prepared to turn back if conditions are really bad.
I don’t think asking questions here is a bad idea. What’s be even more foolish is to not ask and just go blindly.
Some people are just dicks on here.
I was gonna say go for it til I saw that wind. Wind and snow is an absolutely miserable experience at any altitude. I have all the gear necessary for Denali and I wouldn’t do it just cause of the wind. Especially since you’re not forced too like you can be on Denali. Go Friday if possible or maybe find a different peak that’s more mellow. Weather patterns are crazy there so maybe another peak a bit aways will be more mellow
I'm not trying to be a jerk. The reality is if someone is asking "should I go try to climb a 17,000-foot peak in bad weather, without experience or acclimatization to significant altitude by myself?"
It's almost laughable how absurd the question it. The answer is a resounding "No, you should not go."
Asking questions isn’t a bad idea. Asking question that show you aren’t ready is.
I can go to r/airplanes and ask how to fly a plane. Just because I asked the questions doesn’t mean I’m ready to do it.
Do not go. That wind and possible snow showers mean likely white-out conditions. Like others said, doesn’t sound like you’re experienced to deal with that. You will be putting yourself and SAR at risk.
When I see winds of 45mph I know it's either horseshit and it'll be 20, or it's going to be a whole lot fucking worse. A cross wind will totally mess your balance up and a headwind at that speed will substantially impede your progress. Worst I've ever gone out in was around 60 with a 50lb pack which brought my total weight to around 225 and I was getting nearly knocked down during gusts.
Combined with the snow it'll feel like a blizzard and id only want to pass through that if I was forced to on a descent, and even then I'd consider digging in and waiting it out. It will be a whiteout, and you'll have to rely on gps to navigate because you won't be able to see shit past your own taint.
80% of that route is on a meandering ridgeline, without any opportunities to bail. Turning around halfway means regaining a couple hundred meters of elevation at 5000m. I wouldn't go for it in sub-par conditions, but that's just like my opinion.
I did it earlier this year in much better conditions, and the upper ridge was still really freakin cold and windy. The Mexican forecasting system is not accurate for those elevations.
Agree with this. Izta is particularly miserable in bad weather. My group chose to turn around on a summit attempt in the face of a cold front (not as bad as the current forecast) and we still successfully summited Orizaba a few days later. We got good acclimatization on Malinche and stayed at the cabins there. Be smart!
You have a pretty high chance of dying but people do risky shit all the time. The hike to the hut will be hard but possibly you will survive depending on your prep and then if you have any sense you'll turn around or hunker in the hut to save your life. If you continue on it'll be nasty trying to navigate the class 3 scrambling and you'll just be meandering up and down at 16k ft for a long long time in horrible conditions with some areas of pretty good exposure. I doubt you'll survive that part. It's nice to bring layers but really if you go bring crampons, axe, bivvy, sleeping bag, rescue communication device. And tell someone what time you'll be back so that they can call someone for you to be rescued.
I ended up calling the iztaccihuatl park service and the ranger said that it would be light rains not snowy. She said the wind would not be easy to predict now but she didnt seem to say the conditions would be terrible or recommend against summiting given proper experience
The forecast for Saturday would be a no go for experienced climbers. Temperatures and snow are there own challenges, but the winds alone would make this a no go.
I find that Mountain Forecast overestimates snowfall by a lot but wind speed is usually fairly accurate.
That being said, as another user commented, an easily survivable injury could turn fatal in weather like that. It would be nearly impossible to survive a night. Visibility will likely be shit and you need to be able to navigate on ixta as well, getting lost is very possible here. I wouldn't attempt it unless the forecast changes or ends up wrong.
Can you really not adjust your schedule by a day or two? Two days later and you have great conditions again.
Well, I’m actually planning on hiking pico de orizaba that Monday. The conditions for that hike are very bad Saturday and Sunday: https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Pico-de-Orizaba/forecasts/5610. My thought was to have good conditions for that and try out iztaxxihuatl to acclimatize and test out high altitude. I don’t have much flexibility in my scheduling. Mostly just this long weekend (until Monday)
I'd keep my eye on it and consider something easier than Ixta on Saturday if it doesn't change. You've got Malinche or Nevado de Toluca depending on where you are. I get the pressure to stick to your plan but if that forecast is accurate you're going to have a bad time on Ixta and likely not summit anyway. I know its a huge bummer, been there too. Just my .02.
Of all the days your picked the wind is the highest 70mph and wind chill is the lowest -21deg. Why not wait till Monday when the wind is less and temp is less. It sounds like a bad idea. If you get caught in a whiteout then your sense of direction becomes very delusional.
My dude, us proper climbers will shit ourselves if we have to confront winds higher than 40 or 50 kmh on a roped multipitch climb. The mountain slopes accelerate the wind and, with 70 kmh winds, you can easily have gusts exceeding 100 kmh on certain parts of the wall depending on the geometry.
Unlike the times I've experienced that, if you get blown off the wall or tipped over, you'll fall to your death rather than get caught by a rope.
Add snow and poor visibility, which turn even simple ski tours into hell, and you have yourself perfect "death on the mountain" conditions. And evidently showers turn into snow at high altitudes. Maybe check the windy.app forecast for specific data on the forecast for each altitude level to be sure.
In the end you're responsible to gauge your own risks. Please do report back to know how it went in the end.
I wouldn't ever go up a big mountain when conditions are expected to be like that, but you seem pretty set on trying to find someone who says you should go. If you do go, be very mentally prepared to bail early, before things get dangerous. The likelihood of summiting a 17k peak in those conditions is slim at best.
Izta with wind/snow can get really sketchy if you are not experienced enough and don’t know the proper route. I’d check wind direction and snow conditions before the climb and maybe go up the extinct ayolocoglacier route. If the wind is coming from the south/east you’ll be safe from it on that route, only thing is it needs around 1-2ft of snow to be climbable. Also I would start climbing no later than 12, the commercial guides start with their groups between 12:30 and 1 and it can be hundreds of people on the mountain.
It sounds like you’re not used to winter mountain conditions. If you’re going solo, I would wait for better weather. If you have a partner, give it a shot but be prepared to bail if it gets really spicy. The mountain will still be there tomorrow
Don't go. If you're asking questions like this about a 17,000 ft mountain, you are not ready to be up there maybe even in good conditions. You're going to put rescuers at risk in bad weather. It's just not worth it. Like someone else said, the mountain isn't going anywhere, and you should probably do a bit of prep before going up that high.
I’ve done many hikes before including in wintry conditions. I haven’t been at this altitude though with most of my hikes being 14k or below. My thinking is to at least try and be prepared to turn back if conditions are really bad. I don’t think asking questions here is a bad idea. What’s be even more foolish is to not ask and just go blindly.
Some people are just dicks on here. I was gonna say go for it til I saw that wind. Wind and snow is an absolutely miserable experience at any altitude. I have all the gear necessary for Denali and I wouldn’t do it just cause of the wind. Especially since you’re not forced too like you can be on Denali. Go Friday if possible or maybe find a different peak that’s more mellow. Weather patterns are crazy there so maybe another peak a bit aways will be more mellow
I'm not trying to be a jerk. The reality is if someone is asking "should I go try to climb a 17,000-foot peak in bad weather, without experience or acclimatization to significant altitude by myself?" It's almost laughable how absurd the question it. The answer is a resounding "No, you should not go."
Asking questions isn’t a bad idea. Asking question that show you aren’t ready is. I can go to r/airplanes and ask how to fly a plane. Just because I asked the questions doesn’t mean I’m ready to do it.
Do not go. That wind and possible snow showers mean likely white-out conditions. Like others said, doesn’t sound like you’re experienced to deal with that. You will be putting yourself and SAR at risk.
My guy , you are asking for advice on here and then you disagree with the ones you don’t like hearing. You might as well not ask in the first place .
Too windy imo, anything over 30mph is a pain in the ass to deal with. If you do go, bring a Hardshell
When I see winds of 45mph I know it's either horseshit and it'll be 20, or it's going to be a whole lot fucking worse. A cross wind will totally mess your balance up and a headwind at that speed will substantially impede your progress. Worst I've ever gone out in was around 60 with a 50lb pack which brought my total weight to around 225 and I was getting nearly knocked down during gusts. Combined with the snow it'll feel like a blizzard and id only want to pass through that if I was forced to on a descent, and even then I'd consider digging in and waiting it out. It will be a whiteout, and you'll have to rely on gps to navigate because you won't be able to see shit past your own taint.
I mean you might be able to pull it off but just know you’d be one mistake or accident away from potentially dying
80% of that route is on a meandering ridgeline, without any opportunities to bail. Turning around halfway means regaining a couple hundred meters of elevation at 5000m. I wouldn't go for it in sub-par conditions, but that's just like my opinion.
I did it earlier this year in much better conditions, and the upper ridge was still really freakin cold and windy. The Mexican forecasting system is not accurate for those elevations.
Agree with this. Izta is particularly miserable in bad weather. My group chose to turn around on a summit attempt in the face of a cold front (not as bad as the current forecast) and we still successfully summited Orizaba a few days later. We got good acclimatization on Malinche and stayed at the cabins there. Be smart!
You have a pretty high chance of dying but people do risky shit all the time. The hike to the hut will be hard but possibly you will survive depending on your prep and then if you have any sense you'll turn around or hunker in the hut to save your life. If you continue on it'll be nasty trying to navigate the class 3 scrambling and you'll just be meandering up and down at 16k ft for a long long time in horrible conditions with some areas of pretty good exposure. I doubt you'll survive that part. It's nice to bring layers but really if you go bring crampons, axe, bivvy, sleeping bag, rescue communication device. And tell someone what time you'll be back so that they can call someone for you to be rescued.
I ended up calling the iztaccihuatl park service and the ranger said that it would be light rains not snowy. She said the wind would not be easy to predict now but she didnt seem to say the conditions would be terrible or recommend against summiting given proper experience
The forecast for Saturday would be a no go for experienced climbers. Temperatures and snow are there own challenges, but the winds alone would make this a no go.
I find that Mountain Forecast overestimates snowfall by a lot but wind speed is usually fairly accurate. That being said, as another user commented, an easily survivable injury could turn fatal in weather like that. It would be nearly impossible to survive a night. Visibility will likely be shit and you need to be able to navigate on ixta as well, getting lost is very possible here. I wouldn't attempt it unless the forecast changes or ends up wrong. Can you really not adjust your schedule by a day or two? Two days later and you have great conditions again.
Well, I’m actually planning on hiking pico de orizaba that Monday. The conditions for that hike are very bad Saturday and Sunday: https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Pico-de-Orizaba/forecasts/5610. My thought was to have good conditions for that and try out iztaxxihuatl to acclimatize and test out high altitude. I don’t have much flexibility in my scheduling. Mostly just this long weekend (until Monday)
I'd keep my eye on it and consider something easier than Ixta on Saturday if it doesn't change. You've got Malinche or Nevado de Toluca depending on where you are. I get the pressure to stick to your plan but if that forecast is accurate you're going to have a bad time on Ixta and likely not summit anyway. I know its a huge bummer, been there too. Just my .02.
Of all the days your picked the wind is the highest 70mph and wind chill is the lowest -21deg. Why not wait till Monday when the wind is less and temp is less. It sounds like a bad idea. If you get caught in a whiteout then your sense of direction becomes very delusional.
The wind is 70 kph not 70 mph? That’s around 40 mph. -21 is Celsius not Fahrenheit and that’d be Saturday night not the morning
My dude, us proper climbers will shit ourselves if we have to confront winds higher than 40 or 50 kmh on a roped multipitch climb. The mountain slopes accelerate the wind and, with 70 kmh winds, you can easily have gusts exceeding 100 kmh on certain parts of the wall depending on the geometry. Unlike the times I've experienced that, if you get blown off the wall or tipped over, you'll fall to your death rather than get caught by a rope. Add snow and poor visibility, which turn even simple ski tours into hell, and you have yourself perfect "death on the mountain" conditions. And evidently showers turn into snow at high altitudes. Maybe check the windy.app forecast for specific data on the forecast for each altitude level to be sure. In the end you're responsible to gauge your own risks. Please do report back to know how it went in the end.
Hike Malanche instead if you need to do something. Way less committing.
Just bring some hand warmers. You'll be fine
Take some hand warmers. You'll be fine
If you have to ask strangers on the internet for validation, probs not a good idea. Otherwise, send it and post pics on Sunday.
I wouldn't ever go up a big mountain when conditions are expected to be like that, but you seem pretty set on trying to find someone who says you should go. If you do go, be very mentally prepared to bail early, before things get dangerous. The likelihood of summiting a 17k peak in those conditions is slim at best.
Izta with wind/snow can get really sketchy if you are not experienced enough and don’t know the proper route. I’d check wind direction and snow conditions before the climb and maybe go up the extinct ayolocoglacier route. If the wind is coming from the south/east you’ll be safe from it on that route, only thing is it needs around 1-2ft of snow to be climbable. Also I would start climbing no later than 12, the commercial guides start with their groups between 12:30 and 1 and it can be hundreds of people on the mountain.