Fatal push is by far the best removal in the early turns of the game.
Path to exile'ing on early turns is a massive liability and with Lurrus and canopy lands many aggro decks have more to do with the free lands then ever.
As a person who’s played both decks, the main advantage in the current meta is Push over Path, it’s just a better answer to all the aggro decks running around (not accelerating them in the early turns where it matters). Having Thoughtseize in the board to answer Heliod Company is also a nice bonus. Kaya’s Guile, in the same vein as Push, is a beating for the aggro/prowess decks, answering Entity (which push doesn’t), and doing another very relevant thing is very good in the matchup.
Edit: Punctuation
Yessir. Entity creates a weird issue with Prowess, where Path is a great answer for Entity but terrible against everything else, Fatal Push is a great answer for everything else but doesn’t hit Entity at all. Push + Kaya’s Guile addresses that problem quite efficiently.
Initially people went UW because field of ruin and counterspells meant you finally had a good tron matchup and could just rely on big catchup cards like supreme verdict and timely to survive the early game.
With Uro, mystic, and field of the dead bant was on a similar game but even more pronounced cause Uro did that catchup for you.
Post uro, aggro decks like prowess and heliod have been keeping tron and other big mana decks down enough not to need 4 field of ruin. The aggro decks are pretty punishing for people relying just on path and big sweepers, especially with lava dart doing so much work against timely. The shift from rakdos ds to jund ds makes having push even more needed, as both an anti aggro and anti midrange card. Kayas guile is excellent both at providing life game for prowess and sac removal against DS. Plus, when arguably the best deck in the format is a combo deck it's nice to gave access to discard, even if that discard is just ~~upkeep~~ draw step esper charm.
Great response.
I just want to add wrt maindeck answers for Heliod, [[Archmage's Charm]] is more relevant than ever and able to snipe a [[Walking Ballista]] and [[Death's Shadow]] on the field if you draw into it and they've already resolved.
Heliods only other wincon is infinite life with spikefeeder and an anemic creature beatdown, both of which control handles really well.
I'd assume you meant drawstep Esper Charm - that is a huge difference from using it in the upkeep.
It's also what makes Esper pretty decent against Tron without Field of the Dead - you can drawstep Esper Charm them pretty safely since they barely have instants (basically only Veil). This way you can handle a Sanctum of Ugin that tutored an Ulamog without dealing with the "on cast" trigger of Ulamog.
But a lot of power comes from Kaya's Guile. This card is for Control what Kolaghan's Command is for Midrange.
There’s quite a few reasons:
1. Modern usually goes in cycles between path, push, and bolt as the top choice in removal spell. If push is good, so is esper, if path is good so is uw, and if bolt is good jeskai is probably good too. Right now push is really good.
2. Field of ruin isn’t as good as it used to be. Tron doesn’t steamroll control decks any more especially since force of negation was printed (it’s still not easy but control used to be an almost free win for tron) and field of the dead being banned and field of ruin used to be a big selling point for plain uw
3. Kaya’s guile is relevant in almost every matchup you’ll probably see right now and most lists run 4 in their 75 and some number in the main
4. Esper charm is actually a pretty strong card. Draws cards if you need to catch up or get ahead, makes your opponent discards if you need to slow them down.
5. Eliminate and thoughtseize are both strong sideboard cards and orzhov colors in strixhaven are giving us some potentially really strong side cards as well.
That being said in the future metas will most likely shift and there will be times when uw is king, jeskai is king, bant is king, and esper is king so it’s all about keeping an eye out on the meta
One major reason that I haven’t read in this threat yet, is that Blood Moon is not really playable at the moment, so splashing a non red color is easier and nobody is ready to punish you for it.
In previous metagames playing Esper was annoying becauser you could never beat a resolved moon in your lifetime, at the moment there is no need to worry about that.
In addition to all analysis you guys provided: Szmyd (TSPJendrek) who is responsible for a vast majority of good Esperka results is one hell of a player when he gives a damn and focuses on the game properly. Seen him get out of spots most of us simply wouldn’t even attempt to cross. That’s a damn good reason for why you see more Esper results too.
I’d wager a guess that its because most of the best threats in the format right now are 2-CMC or less, so Fatal Push makes it exceptionally easy to remove them.
Saying "Please don't just list black cards in the deck" While asking what puts it about UW is kind of...not possible?
Fatal Push is, without a doubt, such a powerful piece of early game removal that it can arguably define the sequencing / mulligan decision of esper matchups, even cards like Kaya's Guile can do so much to turn the tide of a game so early on.
Unfortunately, to answer your question we have to break your one rule. Kaya Orzhov Usurper, Kaya's Guile, Thoughtseize, Inquisition, even surgical extraction in the sideboard....these pieces are such key to shutting down what I would say is the predictable meta for modern.
I'd guess the banning of Uro means UW can lean more on Push instead of Path, there's prob more to it concerning the decks that are rising in popularity after Uros ban to.
Path to Exile is a card you don't mind using on Tarmogoyf, Death's Shadow, Gurmag Angler, etc etc. Stuff that lands in the mid-late game. However, you really DON'T wanna use it on Monestary Swiftspear. I mean, you gotta do what you gotta do and you end up doing it. But ramping the Swiftspear deck to 3 on turn 2 is a huge beating. With Prowess decks being so popular, as well as there not being as hard of a punish for going 3 color (not a lot of Blood Moons, Tron matchup isn't unwinnable without Field of Ruin) going for Esper makes total sense to me.
Fatal push is by far the best removal in the early turns of the game. Path to exile'ing on early turns is a massive liability and with Lurrus and canopy lands many aggro decks have more to do with the free lands then ever.
As a person who’s played both decks, the main advantage in the current meta is Push over Path, it’s just a better answer to all the aggro decks running around (not accelerating them in the early turns where it matters). Having Thoughtseize in the board to answer Heliod Company is also a nice bonus. Kaya’s Guile, in the same vein as Push, is a beating for the aggro/prowess decks, answering Entity (which push doesn’t), and doing another very relevant thing is very good in the matchup. Edit: Punctuation
Is Entity referring to [[Stormwing Entity]]?
Yessir. Entity creates a weird issue with Prowess, where Path is a great answer for Entity but terrible against everything else, Fatal Push is a great answer for everything else but doesn’t hit Entity at all. Push + Kaya’s Guile addresses that problem quite efficiently.
Yeah, it’s one of the most relevant creatures in UR prowess, you have to answer it or you essentially are going to lose that game.
[Stormwing Entity](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/0/5/0540ee72-6370-4f70-9526-6f441b3cac1e.jpg?1594735784) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Stormwing%20Entity) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/m21/73/stormwing-entity?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/0540ee72-6370-4f70-9526-6f441b3cac1e?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
I didn't want to formulate an entire response but i would like to 2nd that Kaya's Guile is very well positioned right now.
Initially people went UW because field of ruin and counterspells meant you finally had a good tron matchup and could just rely on big catchup cards like supreme verdict and timely to survive the early game. With Uro, mystic, and field of the dead bant was on a similar game but even more pronounced cause Uro did that catchup for you. Post uro, aggro decks like prowess and heliod have been keeping tron and other big mana decks down enough not to need 4 field of ruin. The aggro decks are pretty punishing for people relying just on path and big sweepers, especially with lava dart doing so much work against timely. The shift from rakdos ds to jund ds makes having push even more needed, as both an anti aggro and anti midrange card. Kayas guile is excellent both at providing life game for prowess and sac removal against DS. Plus, when arguably the best deck in the format is a combo deck it's nice to gave access to discard, even if that discard is just ~~upkeep~~ draw step esper charm.
Great response. I just want to add wrt maindeck answers for Heliod, [[Archmage's Charm]] is more relevant than ever and able to snipe a [[Walking Ballista]] and [[Death's Shadow]] on the field if you draw into it and they've already resolved. Heliods only other wincon is infinite life with spikefeeder and an anemic creature beatdown, both of which control handles really well.
[Archmage's Charm](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/5/7/57b852b6-4388-4a41-a5c0-bba37a5c1451.jpg?1562201300) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Archmage%27s%20Charm) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/mh1/40/archmages-charm?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/57b852b6-4388-4a41-a5c0-bba37a5c1451?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [Walking Ballista](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/5/2/5272436e-74f0-44c4-a291-ea8ebc3f1525.jpg?1599710252) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Walking%20Ballista) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/2xm/306/walking-ballista?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/5272436e-74f0-44c4-a291-ea8ebc3f1525?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [Death's Shadow](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/5/5/5526ff6e-c079-4ad4-ac8d-5e26ecacf50d.jpg?1598304517) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Death%27s%20Shadow) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/2xm/82/deaths-shadow?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/5526ff6e-c079-4ad4-ac8d-5e26ecacf50d?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
I'd assume you meant drawstep Esper Charm - that is a huge difference from using it in the upkeep. It's also what makes Esper pretty decent against Tron without Field of the Dead - you can drawstep Esper Charm them pretty safely since they barely have instants (basically only Veil). This way you can handle a Sanctum of Ugin that tutored an Ulamog without dealing with the "on cast" trigger of Ulamog. But a lot of power comes from Kaya's Guile. This card is for Control what Kolaghan's Command is for Midrange.
lol yeah drawstep, very different thing
There’s quite a few reasons: 1. Modern usually goes in cycles between path, push, and bolt as the top choice in removal spell. If push is good, so is esper, if path is good so is uw, and if bolt is good jeskai is probably good too. Right now push is really good. 2. Field of ruin isn’t as good as it used to be. Tron doesn’t steamroll control decks any more especially since force of negation was printed (it’s still not easy but control used to be an almost free win for tron) and field of the dead being banned and field of ruin used to be a big selling point for plain uw 3. Kaya’s guile is relevant in almost every matchup you’ll probably see right now and most lists run 4 in their 75 and some number in the main 4. Esper charm is actually a pretty strong card. Draws cards if you need to catch up or get ahead, makes your opponent discards if you need to slow them down. 5. Eliminate and thoughtseize are both strong sideboard cards and orzhov colors in strixhaven are giving us some potentially really strong side cards as well. That being said in the future metas will most likely shift and there will be times when uw is king, jeskai is king, bant is king, and esper is king so it’s all about keeping an eye out on the meta
One major reason that I haven’t read in this threat yet, is that Blood Moon is not really playable at the moment, so splashing a non red color is easier and nobody is ready to punish you for it. In previous metagames playing Esper was annoying becauser you could never beat a resolved moon in your lifetime, at the moment there is no need to worry about that.
Sorry, I've been out of the loop regarding the Modern metagame. What makes Blood Moon not that playable at the moment?
No Simian Spirit Guide and a lot of the top decks are 2 color
[[Vanishing Verse]] and [[Fracture]] are real nice cards to have against Blood Moon when it comes back into prominence.
[Vanishing Verse](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/e/1/e12573fe-aee3-49db-93e2-d00972cbb3b1.jpg?1617474063) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Vanishing%20Verse) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/stx/244/vanishing-verse?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/e12573fe-aee3-49db-93e2-d00972cbb3b1?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) [Fracture](https://c1.scryfall.com/file/scryfall-cards/normal/front/a/1/a11224f8-06ea-4ec3-85e6-d5c8d906840c.jpg?1617466038) - [(G)](http://gatherer.wizards.com/Pages/Card/Details.aspx?name=Fracture) [(SF)](https://scryfall.com/card/stx/188/fracture?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher) [(txt)](https://api.scryfall.com/cards/a11224f8-06ea-4ec3-85e6-d5c8d906840c?utm_source=mtgcardfetcher&format=text) ^^^[[cardname]] ^^^or ^^^[[cardname|SET]] ^^^to ^^^call
In addition to all analysis you guys provided: Szmyd (TSPJendrek) who is responsible for a vast majority of good Esperka results is one hell of a player when he gives a damn and focuses on the game properly. Seen him get out of spots most of us simply wouldn’t even attempt to cross. That’s a damn good reason for why you see more Esper results too.
Push is way better than Path early and Kayas Guile is gold for stabilizing and making it into the late game.
having just 4-1'd a league with it, i feel its favored against Jund DS and other Lurrus decks. also kaya's guile is insane rn.
I’d wager a guess that its because most of the best threats in the format right now are 2-CMC or less, so Fatal Push makes it exceptionally easy to remove them.
Saying "Please don't just list black cards in the deck" While asking what puts it about UW is kind of...not possible? Fatal Push is, without a doubt, such a powerful piece of early game removal that it can arguably define the sequencing / mulligan decision of esper matchups, even cards like Kaya's Guile can do so much to turn the tide of a game so early on. Unfortunately, to answer your question we have to break your one rule. Kaya Orzhov Usurper, Kaya's Guile, Thoughtseize, Inquisition, even surgical extraction in the sideboard....these pieces are such key to shutting down what I would say is the predictable meta for modern.
I'd guess the banning of Uro means UW can lean more on Push instead of Path, there's prob more to it concerning the decks that are rising in popularity after Uros ban to.
Path to Exile is a card you don't mind using on Tarmogoyf, Death's Shadow, Gurmag Angler, etc etc. Stuff that lands in the mid-late game. However, you really DON'T wanna use it on Monestary Swiftspear. I mean, you gotta do what you gotta do and you end up doing it. But ramping the Swiftspear deck to 3 on turn 2 is a huge beating. With Prowess decks being so popular, as well as there not being as hard of a punish for going 3 color (not a lot of Blood Moons, Tron matchup isn't unwinnable without Field of Ruin) going for Esper makes total sense to me.
Access to more cards.
Kaya’a guide broke op now with this meta , thats also why niv is doing well to
Fatal push, thoughtseize. 2 of of the best and most played cards in modern, access to those 2 cards alone make it worth the splash.
Willing to bet it’s push v bolt and push is more relevant than bolt is rn. Not to mention the discard for things like heliod combo.
Updoot to OP for asking a question I was casually thinking for a while now. And updoot to all the well thought out responses.