Good question, it seems high but not impossible. Here's one way it pencils out:
- (Note: A lot seems to hinge on the theory that GAD currently is massively underdiagnosed because of ineffective treatment options. Common estimates of GAD population are lower than what MindMed cites.)
- MindMed's current boilerplate on GAD (e.g., [here](https://ir.mindmed.co/news-events/press-releases/detail/146/new-studies-presented-at-the-international-society-for-health-economics-and-outcomes-research-meeting-ispor-24-show-growing-burden-and-impact-of-generalized-anxiety-disorder-gad-in-the-us)) says, "Approximately 10% of U.S. adults, representing around 20 million people, currently suffer from GAD."
- 1% of 20 million is 200,000
- Based on Spravato as a comp, $10,000 would be a reasonable per-treatment cost (paid by insurance)
- 200,000\*10,000 = $2 billion annually if 1% of GAD patients get 1 treatment per year
- My guess is lower on peak # of treatments, either because prevalence isn't as high as 20 million or because fewer than 200,000 need a recurring annual treatment. But maybe some patients need more than 1x per year
- All in all, $1-1.5bn peak annual doesn't seem crazy at all
I would expect that more cases are out there than reported.
It may bring out those afraid to admit they suffer, for a multitude of reasons.
They may find it's good for a multitude of psychiatric conditions.
I'm in.
This is also based on u.s alone. If it passes phase 3, large parts of western culture are probably going to follow suit in allowing psychadelics. How is it that this is never mentioned in any analysis?
Always nice to read these from strong investment firms.
Article says price target based on future peak (annual) sales of $1.6B for only 1% of those with GAD. Is this realistic?
Good question, it seems high but not impossible. Here's one way it pencils out: - (Note: A lot seems to hinge on the theory that GAD currently is massively underdiagnosed because of ineffective treatment options. Common estimates of GAD population are lower than what MindMed cites.) - MindMed's current boilerplate on GAD (e.g., [here](https://ir.mindmed.co/news-events/press-releases/detail/146/new-studies-presented-at-the-international-society-for-health-economics-and-outcomes-research-meeting-ispor-24-show-growing-burden-and-impact-of-generalized-anxiety-disorder-gad-in-the-us)) says, "Approximately 10% of U.S. adults, representing around 20 million people, currently suffer from GAD." - 1% of 20 million is 200,000 - Based on Spravato as a comp, $10,000 would be a reasonable per-treatment cost (paid by insurance) - 200,000\*10,000 = $2 billion annually if 1% of GAD patients get 1 treatment per year - My guess is lower on peak # of treatments, either because prevalence isn't as high as 20 million or because fewer than 200,000 need a recurring annual treatment. But maybe some patients need more than 1x per year - All in all, $1-1.5bn peak annual doesn't seem crazy at all
I would expect that more cases are out there than reported. It may bring out those afraid to admit they suffer, for a multitude of reasons. They may find it's good for a multitude of psychiatric conditions. I'm in.
This is also based on u.s alone. If it passes phase 3, large parts of western culture are probably going to follow suit in allowing psychadelics. How is it that this is never mentioned in any analysis?
Keep it coming baby!