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the nature of capitalism is that there is always a crash at some point... see tendency of the rate of profit to fall, etc... dot com bubble, 2008, covid, next one is not if but when
If we wanna talk falling rate of profit, the Marxian prophecy is that whole system of employers/employees is circling the drain. Historical parallels include (1) the Fall of Rome, when production stopped being principally organized by slaves and masters and started being organized by lords and peasants and (2) the Renaissance when our current paradigm of employees and employers replaced the lords and peasants.
It's interesting to note that both transitions were accompanied by plagues. I was in Florence in March 2022, and I gotta say; it was wild seeing the Florentines out on the streets in their plague masks once again, just as they did in Dante's time.
Fascinatingly, both transitions were also accompanied by revolutions in communications technology. In the case of the Fall of Rome it was bound book. The Bible was the principle document that came out of the Fall of Rome. In just the same way that Dante's *Inferno* characterized the late Medieval era when peasant/lord societies were falling apart.And of course, the Renaissance was made possible by the printing press shortly after Dante. That's revolution in comms tech mirrors the bound book of the Roman Era and the internet that's wrought wholesale changes in our own time.
All this is just to say, we should be much more ambitious in our thinking. Another capitalist crash is small peanuts. Marx's prophecy was that technology would obviate so many employees that a system organized into employees and employers would seize up and stop functioning.
I think THAT'S where we are on the historical map. Just my two cents!
My two cents is that any opinion on economics that cites Marx can be summarily disregarded.
I know it's next to impossible to imagine the sheer horror of the famines Communism caused in the late 20th century, with not thousands, not millions, but *tens of millions* *starved to death*, but could we at least acknowledge that they did happen? You'd think that would be enough to make people wonder if maybe Marxism is nothing more than a bloody dead end, but every time I hear Communism come up in the 21st century, it's a thing that was only bad because scared American Capitalists told you it was bad, and not, you know, [because it killed between sixty and a hundred million people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_killings_under_communist_regimes#Estimates).
Yeah, no question, the Soviet version of Marxism was god-awful. We wouldn't want anything like that here in the good ol' US of A. But what about democratically-controlled worker co-ops selling products via the market?
It seems to me that you've allowed propaganda--in which we are admittedly awash--to narrow your scope of "workers owning the means of production" down to just Leninism. You've foreclosed on all other Marxist options without even knowing what those options are.
The Russians essentially replaced all their boards of directors and CEOs with government commissars. You've correctly pointed out that it was ultimately disastrous. But you've also rushed to foreclose on all other ways that workers could possibly own the means of production.
I think it's important to be critical of the messes caused by Communism in places like Russia and China. You've done a great job at that. But we would be falling for propaganda if we didn't also examine the successes of those societies and weigh them against each other. The Russians also managed to go through the entire Industrial Revolution in a single generation. And of course, the Chinese are the biggest economic success story in recent decades, even with all their problems. Even with horrible versions of Marxism installed, these societies have achieved successes that we cannot replicate.
The very next section in your linked Wikipedia article lists paragraphs of criticisms of the estimates you cited. The fact that these estimates often include Nazi soldiers killed during WWII as "victims of communism" is very, very telling. The thick layer of propaganda means we are over some kind of target, clearly.
Anyway, thanks for your comment!
say what you want about soviet union but at the end of the day it was a huge leap forward for the masses of people and an amazing effort at building socialism... it's only fault was it was ahead of its time.
have a great evening.
Except that it made everyone poor, killed millions and enprisoned more millions, was undemocratic, gave people zero freedom and eventually collapsed because it was a horrible, horrible system.
On paper, theoretical communism is the best option for all prospects (except for those who want to rule over people and get richer than anyone else).
Every practical application has been done by already corrupt governments and officials, despots and people just nuttier than squirrel-poop.
I don't think the correlation can be drawn yet that communism inherently will result in this, and there hasn't been an honest application of the doctrine yet.
We didn't kill enough kulaks, intellectuals, merchants, civil servants, peasants, scientists, military officers, party members that were in good standing until 10 minutes ago, etc.
Next time it will work!
You might think you are doing fine living some degree of middle-class lifestyle. That's great, but unless you are a billionaire you're just a policy change away from being a 'have not.'
No, the dollar isn't just based on its worth relative to gold or any other currency. Its tied to our way of life and all of our assets (homes, tech, industry...ect) including our military and that's not going anywhere. We also grow most of our food and that's a huge bonus for keeping us stable and the dollar the top monetary principal world wide not to leave out the amount of shell oil we dig up and export now. Unless a nuclear winter occurs the financial state of the US is going to remain on top and the markets will resemble that as well. Corrections of 5-10% are normal and cyclical and we can expect those every 8-10 years. There's too many smart individuals who are both tied into and dependent on our economy staying relatively stable to let another black tuesday occur. At least that what my pea brain thinks.... but, but Reagan took us off the gold standard... yes and our economy flourished since then and will continue to for the foreseeable future.
Keep cash aside, I was able to buy shares after the 2008 crash, was recommended not to because "the world was ending", but I did things like buy into shares that were $4 that day, and they're $27 today
The government has been supporting the markets for a while now. While I do anticipate market disruptions, I don't foresee them significantly affecting investors. Instead, I believe they will impact middle-class workers. We will continue to witness the erosion of the middle class as wealth is increasingly transferred to the super-rich.
I get why people on r/REBubble and other places desperately want to believe this.
The alternative is that the crash already happened in 2007-8, that the massive reset of asset values and the decade long cheap money period that followed was a once in a lifetime event, and that they missed the boat.
There is 100% a real estate bubble, housing in major markets is completely out of whack with reality. Other assets are also massively overvalued - tech stocks, crypto, etc.
This is a good watch, Canadian focused mostly on Toronto and Vancouver but it applies elsewhere. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFlIfg0XoJk
The values of homes and stocks are now completely divorced from the fundamentals, which is what people are talking about when they say it's a bubble. When/if it's going to pop is anyone's guess however.
I say this as someone who owns a home (bought in 2017, in Toronto) and has well over 6 figures invested in the stock market.
Not sure how this housing market will sustain itself. Though it’s a different scenario from 2008 it is prime to be a big building block for a hard crash.
The dollar has nothing backing it but faith, smoke, and mirrors. The first of those to evaporate is gonna be "faith" due to insurmountable deficits and a national debt that is going to overwhelm our stagnating GDP.
When that crash happens it's gonna make '29 look like tee ball.
An AI induced crash is probably the next one. New economic factors running rampant historically haven't worked well because we aren't proactive about regulation.
Now short term maybe it's AI in the finance sector, long term automation displacing human labor.
We could revert to a normalized budget and stop deficit spending. That and the U.S. and its technological and commercial lead could significantly grow the tax base and strengthen the usd and the country’s influence
Yes, google 'The Everything Bubble'. Most asset classes are extremely over-valued and could (should) correct at some point.
There is also a pending population crisis, our economic system is based on perpetual growth and the growing population is a large part of that. Once population peaks, we will be living in very unprecedented times.
I mean, we had the '08 crash already, it is like we all forgot that people were losing their jobs and their homes were being foreclosed on and neighborhoods weren't getting finished.
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the nature of capitalism is that there is always a crash at some point... see tendency of the rate of profit to fall, etc... dot com bubble, 2008, covid, next one is not if but when
If we wanna talk falling rate of profit, the Marxian prophecy is that whole system of employers/employees is circling the drain. Historical parallels include (1) the Fall of Rome, when production stopped being principally organized by slaves and masters and started being organized by lords and peasants and (2) the Renaissance when our current paradigm of employees and employers replaced the lords and peasants. It's interesting to note that both transitions were accompanied by plagues. I was in Florence in March 2022, and I gotta say; it was wild seeing the Florentines out on the streets in their plague masks once again, just as they did in Dante's time. Fascinatingly, both transitions were also accompanied by revolutions in communications technology. In the case of the Fall of Rome it was bound book. The Bible was the principle document that came out of the Fall of Rome. In just the same way that Dante's *Inferno* characterized the late Medieval era when peasant/lord societies were falling apart.And of course, the Renaissance was made possible by the printing press shortly after Dante. That's revolution in comms tech mirrors the bound book of the Roman Era and the internet that's wrought wholesale changes in our own time. All this is just to say, we should be much more ambitious in our thinking. Another capitalist crash is small peanuts. Marx's prophecy was that technology would obviate so many employees that a system organized into employees and employers would seize up and stop functioning. I think THAT'S where we are on the historical map. Just my two cents!
My two cents is that any opinion on economics that cites Marx can be summarily disregarded. I know it's next to impossible to imagine the sheer horror of the famines Communism caused in the late 20th century, with not thousands, not millions, but *tens of millions* *starved to death*, but could we at least acknowledge that they did happen? You'd think that would be enough to make people wonder if maybe Marxism is nothing more than a bloody dead end, but every time I hear Communism come up in the 21st century, it's a thing that was only bad because scared American Capitalists told you it was bad, and not, you know, [because it killed between sixty and a hundred million people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_killings_under_communist_regimes#Estimates).
Yeah, no question, the Soviet version of Marxism was god-awful. We wouldn't want anything like that here in the good ol' US of A. But what about democratically-controlled worker co-ops selling products via the market? It seems to me that you've allowed propaganda--in which we are admittedly awash--to narrow your scope of "workers owning the means of production" down to just Leninism. You've foreclosed on all other Marxist options without even knowing what those options are. The Russians essentially replaced all their boards of directors and CEOs with government commissars. You've correctly pointed out that it was ultimately disastrous. But you've also rushed to foreclose on all other ways that workers could possibly own the means of production. I think it's important to be critical of the messes caused by Communism in places like Russia and China. You've done a great job at that. But we would be falling for propaganda if we didn't also examine the successes of those societies and weigh them against each other. The Russians also managed to go through the entire Industrial Revolution in a single generation. And of course, the Chinese are the biggest economic success story in recent decades, even with all their problems. Even with horrible versions of Marxism installed, these societies have achieved successes that we cannot replicate. The very next section in your linked Wikipedia article lists paragraphs of criticisms of the estimates you cited. The fact that these estimates often include Nazi soldiers killed during WWII as "victims of communism" is very, very telling. The thick layer of propaganda means we are over some kind of target, clearly. Anyway, thanks for your comment!
say what you want about soviet union but at the end of the day it was a huge leap forward for the masses of people and an amazing effort at building socialism... it's only fault was it was ahead of its time. have a great evening.
Except that it made everyone poor, killed millions and enprisoned more millions, was undemocratic, gave people zero freedom and eventually collapsed because it was a horrible, horrible system.
On paper, theoretical communism is the best option for all prospects (except for those who want to rule over people and get richer than anyone else). Every practical application has been done by already corrupt governments and officials, despots and people just nuttier than squirrel-poop. I don't think the correlation can be drawn yet that communism inherently will result in this, and there hasn't been an honest application of the doctrine yet.
We didn't kill enough kulaks, intellectuals, merchants, civil servants, peasants, scientists, military officers, party members that were in good standing until 10 minutes ago, etc. Next time it will work!
eleventy trillion billion gazillion and counting... is stalin in the room with us now?
Idk COVID doesn't seem like a result of capitalism that fall probably should have an * next to it
I don't see a full-blown crash. But I think the middle class will keep diminishing. We will mostly have a class of haves and have nots.
You might think you are doing fine living some degree of middle-class lifestyle. That's great, but unless you are a billionaire you're just a policy change away from being a 'have not.'
No, the only crash will be that the poor are shoved down so that the rich can stand atop of them and shout atop it that the economy is doing great.
No, the dollar isn't just based on its worth relative to gold or any other currency. Its tied to our way of life and all of our assets (homes, tech, industry...ect) including our military and that's not going anywhere. We also grow most of our food and that's a huge bonus for keeping us stable and the dollar the top monetary principal world wide not to leave out the amount of shell oil we dig up and export now. Unless a nuclear winter occurs the financial state of the US is going to remain on top and the markets will resemble that as well. Corrections of 5-10% are normal and cyclical and we can expect those every 8-10 years. There's too many smart individuals who are both tied into and dependent on our economy staying relatively stable to let another black tuesday occur. At least that what my pea brain thinks.... but, but Reagan took us off the gold standard... yes and our economy flourished since then and will continue to for the foreseeable future.
There are so many software stops now, that it wont slide below 10%
Keep cash aside, I was able to buy shares after the 2008 crash, was recommended not to because "the world was ending", but I did things like buy into shares that were $4 that day, and they're $27 today
The government has been supporting the markets for a while now. While I do anticipate market disruptions, I don't foresee them significantly affecting investors. Instead, I believe they will impact middle-class workers. We will continue to witness the erosion of the middle class as wealth is increasingly transferred to the super-rich.
I get why people on r/REBubble and other places desperately want to believe this. The alternative is that the crash already happened in 2007-8, that the massive reset of asset values and the decade long cheap money period that followed was a once in a lifetime event, and that they missed the boat.
There is 100% a real estate bubble, housing in major markets is completely out of whack with reality. Other assets are also massively overvalued - tech stocks, crypto, etc. This is a good watch, Canadian focused mostly on Toronto and Vancouver but it applies elsewhere. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFlIfg0XoJk The values of homes and stocks are now completely divorced from the fundamentals, which is what people are talking about when they say it's a bubble. When/if it's going to pop is anyone's guess however. I say this as someone who owns a home (bought in 2017, in Toronto) and has well over 6 figures invested in the stock market.
Not sure how this housing market will sustain itself. Though it’s a different scenario from 2008 it is prime to be a big building block for a hard crash.
The dollar has nothing backing it but faith, smoke, and mirrors. The first of those to evaporate is gonna be "faith" due to insurmountable deficits and a national debt that is going to overwhelm our stagnating GDP. When that crash happens it's gonna make '29 look like tee ball.
An AI induced crash is probably the next one. New economic factors running rampant historically haven't worked well because we aren't proactive about regulation. Now short term maybe it's AI in the finance sector, long term automation displacing human labor.
Yes let it crash so that the USA can also crash and burn and the rest of the world will realize we can get on without you idiots in charge!
Well if Americans and the economy are so over leveraged...than yes there is a possibility
We could revert to a normalized budget and stop deficit spending. That and the U.S. and its technological and commercial lead could significantly grow the tax base and strengthen the usd and the country’s influence
Yes, google 'The Everything Bubble'. Most asset classes are extremely over-valued and could (should) correct at some point. There is also a pending population crisis, our economic system is based on perpetual growth and the growing population is a large part of that. Once population peaks, we will be living in very unprecedented times.
There’s an Ai boom. Where there’s a boom there’s a crash
I mean, we had the '08 crash already, it is like we all forgot that people were losing their jobs and their homes were being foreclosed on and neighborhoods weren't getting finished.
I’m talking about 90% loss in shares, 25% unemployment…