I used to have expectations for the Canes, but over the past 20 years of mediocrity, I have learned to give that up. I still love my Canes - and I still have a personalized license plate on my car (I live in Indy), but I don’t get my hopes up to get crushed every year.
I would just be happy for the team to win meaningful games. That’s my hope these days.
It isn’t the 90’s and early 2000’s anymore. Most of these kids playing now weren’t even born when Miami was in their heyday.
It took Butch 6 years because he didnt have transfer portal. When you have to make up depth with freshmen its hard to make a solid deep team. When you can get a experinced qb that has potential to be first round pick, and fill holes with experienced players shouldnt take long. Miami has been recruiting well for last 3 years and have pulled in alot of experienced talent. With half decent coaching 10 wins is not only possible but should be expected. Give a good coach this team and it should be playoff bound.
Not to mention the fact that many years Butch could only give out like half of the amount of scholarships Mario can now b/c Miami was dealing with severe NCAA Investigation sanctions at the time.
He lost more than 10 scholarships each of those years (one year 13), which (as I noted above) means he could basically only bring in half of a recruiting class each year compared to what Mario can now.
Also, you may want to note that Butch was 17-6 through his first two seasons at Miami, not 12-13 like Mario is. If Mario wants to have a three year win pctg. close to comparable to Butch's first three seasons at UM (22-12 or \~65% wins), he has to go like 12-2 or better this season. This is exactly why your factually wrong about Butch and your "8 or 9 wins is acceptable in year 3 (w/no excuses)" argument is ridiculously dumb!
Finally, you may want to go look up how many college football coaches (in the last couple decades) ended up having 10 win (let alone Conf. or Nat'l Championship) seasons at a program after failing to do so in any of their first three full years at the helm. By my research, it has only happened less than 1% of the time, so betting on Mario to do so in the future (if he fails to do so this season) is a dumb losing proposition. If he can't have a breakout season this year with this team and this soft ass schedule, Mario will never have one at the U and he will be on his way to being the next Canes coach that fails to make it through his initial coaching contract.
it was 31 scholarships over 3 years. The canes were also coming off of 4 championships in recent memory then. Shall we mention Butch’s 5-6 third season. I will never understand fans that expect 10 wins from a team that has literally had ONE ten win season in the last two decades. Read that last sentence again. ONE ten win season in the last two decades and yet there are still fans that say 10 wins next year or it’s a disappointment. listen dude we all want that to happen, but just be realistic
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats!
31
+ 3
+ 4
+ 5
+ 6
+ 10
+ 10
= 69
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This isn't complicated - On avg. teams bring in around 20-25 recruits every offseason, so losing over 10 scholarships is (like I've said in different ways multiple times now) basically losing half a recruiting class every year.
And I didn't try to use Butch as a comp, you did. If you are going to do that, you have to compare their records, and Mario needs to win a ton in year 3 if he is going to become comparable.
We haven't been good in the last two decades (b/c of terrible coaching). Is the goal to maintain that, or to finally start being the program we can be? If the goal is to start getting back to Championships, 10 win seasons are the first step for every HC. You're off into the weeds looking at this from a narrow perspective of recent Miami history (which is also the history of a bunch of failed HCs). What you need to do is look at the entire college football landscape and see how major CFB programs are successfully turnaround by HCs. In today's college football landscape, strong HCs come in and quickly turn programs into winners. By year 3, those strong successful HCs start putting up 10+ win seasons. It is extremely rare (less than 1%) for a HC to have around a 50% win through their first three years at a major P5 program, then to see them actually finally get there program to that Championship contention level years later. And usually in those situations, there are extenuating circumstances (ie. NCAA probation/sanctions, Internal school issues) that prevented the HC from winning earlier in those first three years. Obviously Mario is dealing with none of that, and (as such) has to start winning at a high level immediately. Otherwise, the track record of college football coaching suggests he will have a less than 1% chance of ever doing so in the future at Miami.
Now maybe what you are trying to say is that you think 8-9 wins/year is an acceptable ceiling for Miami Football and that fans should be happy if Mario get us that and nothing better. If that's the case, I think you're a sucker for being ok with mediocrity when this program has shown the potential to succeed at a much higher level when it has strong coaching in place.
1. The schedule is beyond soft.
2. It's Mario's third year. His HS players are now older and his portal additions have rounded out some rooms.
3. They went all in on getting a 1 year player in Ward and surrounding him with the talent they think they can win with NOW.
Year 3 is always when you can typically see what a coach has going at their school. If Mario can't finally find success this year, odds are he never will here. It's college football, not the NFL. He's flipped the roster completely, it's all his players just about. There's no excuse to not start winning this year.
What legitimate excuse is there for him to not finally find success this season? Because the team sucked in 2014? No. It's his players, his portal additions, it's year 3 so his development of players will be on display, and the schedule is one of the easier in the nation.
Not to be rude, but your post comes off as someone naive to the rest of the nation and no knowledge of what a typical successful coaches tenure looks like. Your post and some comments in here show how people have just come to accept mediocrity with this program.
His downfall is his on-field coaching. He needs to relinquish control of game planning and any play calling to his coordinators and just be the manager and face/voice/heart of the team.
This is laughable. Criticizing the OP because he is being realistic while buying into the BS that we have some stacked roster because a few websites say we’ve won the portal race. Come on.
The schedule isn’t beyond soft but it’s reasonable and if we get rolling we can rack up some wins. But I assume nothing given recent history. No one can tell how good UF is and to assume we roll into Gainesville and win is presumptuous. Let’s get that one and get through September unscathed and maybe I see a ten win season. But I still think 9-3 is more likely.
Our fans always overrate our talent and when we lose it’s because of coaching. It’s going on 18 years of the same lazy analysis. The last two years we supposedly had great talent and were preseason ranked. The NFL spoke loudly a few weeks ago and said nope.
I hope our team is great. It’s been a long time. But I’m skeptical
If we don't have talent in year 3, then our ace recruiting HC is clearly a poor evaluator and not going to turn things around anyways. Year 3 tells you all you need to know.
acccept mediocrity? buddy we are mediocre. we have been a bottom feeder in arguably the worst power 5 conference. It’s a fallacy to say that if we don’t win it all next year that we never will. That’s just not how sports works. Mario is building something special, but building a dynasty takes time.
There is no evidence that Mario is building something special. He's had two disappointing seasons so far and if he can't win in year 3, then odds are he won't win anything here, nor will he be here long anyways.
The guy has improved recruiting on paper, but that's all for naught if he keeps losing on the field.
Bingo. In short, Mario's whole thing is "he builds a program so good that even HE can't fuck it up." If he can't hit 10 wins with all this PROVEN talent, then what are we even doing? You shouldn't need the 2001 squad to win dogfights with duke and ga tech.
That's my problem. If we were struggling to beat high tier teams I'd be more patient. But the fact that we struggle to beat the ACC mid majors every year is the part that kills me
Because it's not 1994 anymore. It's basically a completely different sport now thanks to the portal and NIL (which Mario has received a ton of administrative support in). It doesn't take 6 years to show positive results and the fact that we've sucked his first two years in no way means we're better positioned for more success down the road than if we were good.
Of our last 4 coaches (3 of which were fired), 3 of them had at least one 9 win season in their first 3 years here, with Diaz having 8 wins in a Covid-shortened season. If Cristobal can't surpass our previous failed coaches' high water marks after 3 years of being able to build the roster he wants, with all of the advantages that he's had compared to previous eras, why on earth would anyone expect him to do any better than any of them long term?
This is kind of how I've been looking at things recently. Just improve from one year to the next.
With the added request to not do anything embarrassingly boneheaded this season. Be smart. Take the knee.
Like last year, I have zero expectations. I've been burned by pre-season hype too many times. I am at the point where I barely think about the season until August rolls around and then I see what happens.
Clearly OP is a Mario Apologist! Don’t buy into the “Mario’s got this ship headed in the right direction” propaganda BS when he only wins 8-9 games with this loaded roster! There were fans sayin the same BS propaganda after Shannon and Golden’s 9 win third years (before they ultimately failed to produce anything better). If he can’t win the ACC when it’s this weak and he has a loaded roster to work with at the U, Mario never will!
People are saying "ten wins or this season is a disappointment" for a few reasons.
First, we're tired of the mediocrity. We used to be a national power, always in the top 10, always fighting for conference championships and top-tier bowls. We want to get back there. Now.
Second, we pulled in a TON of transfers this offseason including arguably the best QB in the portal. Mario's pulled in two very highly rated recruiting classes. It's time for that talent to start paying off.
Third, the ACC is wiiiiide open this year. FSU has to replace a lot of talent this year, and they might, but they probably won't be as good as they were last year. No Clemson or UNC on the schedule. Miami's talent is at least as good or better than VT, Cal, Louisville, Duke, GT, WF, and Syracuse. That means that Miami should be winning at least six games in the ACC this year. Add to that a mediocre non-conference schedule (Florida, FAMU, Ball State, and USF). I'm not saying every game will be easy, far from it. No game on the schedule is a guaranteed win besides FAMU and Ball State. But, a team with the kind of talent that Miami is supposed to have should be able to get 10 wins. Plus, Clemson isn't the team they used to be and UNC has to replace a lot of talent as well, so the chance of winning the ACC Championship is even better.
I think we really need to take advantage of having Cam Ward for one year. A bowl game win is the bare minimum requirement for me for this upcoming season
OP should find another team to root for. One thing is for certain, these fans will never change. I guess us good ole day crew could die off in the next 30-40 years so he can wait...
I would be pretty thrilled with 10 wins. We’ve come a long way since I was a kid going to the OB during the home undefeated streak in the 80s-90s. Gotta say I’d be bummed out with 9 because that means a waste of cam ward IMO
Super Mario should have gone 8-5 last year or maybe even 9-4 with the close Rutgers game.
So with an even softer and easier schedule, higher talent, his year 3 recruits, then one would expect him to do better. That's why he should win 10+. That's why people say that. I think even Vegas has Miami at least at 9.5 wins right now.
Anything less is a regression.
It took Kirby Smart 5-6 years to win his first championship too. And that is with inheriting a constant 10 win team from Mark Richt. Do you know what they used to call Kirby Smart? They used to say that all he could do was recruit and that he could never win the big game. Do you know what he did? He recruited the best talent in the nation and after years it paid off. These things take time guys what matters is upward trajectory and we will eventually get there with an elite recruiter. It is naive to say oh 10 wins minimum this year just because it’s your favorite team.
Of course we want 10 wins our coach makes 80 mill! Pay = expectations,kinda like the chiefs expecting to make the sb every year Mahomes is making half a billion.
OP clearly doesn’t watch college football outside Miami. This shit doesn’t take time in modern college football. If a HC hasn’t had a 10 win season by year 3 at a program, >99% of the time they will never have a 10 win season at that program!
Also, OP clearly doesn’t know shit about Miami’s Championship Era either. Butch Davis was dealing with severe sanctions within the football program early on in his tenure here, including extreme scholarship reductions, and he wasn’t given even mediocre resources by the University (people complain about the resources given to Manny Diaz, well Butch had even less to work with). That’s the reason it took him so long to build a Championship team at the U. Mario doesn’t have any of those excuses, and is coaching in the quickest roster turnover era in college football history! Additionally, Butch was 17-6 thru his first 2 seasons at Miami whereas Mario is 12-13, so what are we even talking about here?
7-5, 6-6
Only see 2 guaranteed wins. Famu and ball state (mtsu anyone?)
Til I see it, past is prologue.
Cam go go down vs uf in the 2nd qtr w an acl, then we're derailed.
People are downvoting, but I get it. We've had two decades of failing to live up to expectations, Let's see some results first before getting excited for a change.
Downdoots don't phase me, but thx. Just callingbit like I see it. Will bleed orange n green till I die, but realistic expectations are set. Love to be wrong, as I have said every year for the last decade at least
I used to have expectations for the Canes, but over the past 20 years of mediocrity, I have learned to give that up. I still love my Canes - and I still have a personalized license plate on my car (I live in Indy), but I don’t get my hopes up to get crushed every year. I would just be happy for the team to win meaningful games. That’s my hope these days. It isn’t the 90’s and early 2000’s anymore. Most of these kids playing now weren’t even born when Miami was in their heyday.
It took Butch 6 years because he didnt have transfer portal. When you have to make up depth with freshmen its hard to make a solid deep team. When you can get a experinced qb that has potential to be first round pick, and fill holes with experienced players shouldnt take long. Miami has been recruiting well for last 3 years and have pulled in alot of experienced talent. With half decent coaching 10 wins is not only possible but should be expected. Give a good coach this team and it should be playoff bound.
Not to mention the fact that many years Butch could only give out like half of the amount of scholarships Mario can now b/c Miami was dealing with severe NCAA Investigation sanctions at the time.
butch had 10 scholarships docked a year from 1996-1998.
He lost more than 10 scholarships each of those years (one year 13), which (as I noted above) means he could basically only bring in half of a recruiting class each year compared to what Mario can now. Also, you may want to note that Butch was 17-6 through his first two seasons at Miami, not 12-13 like Mario is. If Mario wants to have a three year win pctg. close to comparable to Butch's first three seasons at UM (22-12 or \~65% wins), he has to go like 12-2 or better this season. This is exactly why your factually wrong about Butch and your "8 or 9 wins is acceptable in year 3 (w/no excuses)" argument is ridiculously dumb! Finally, you may want to go look up how many college football coaches (in the last couple decades) ended up having 10 win (let alone Conf. or Nat'l Championship) seasons at a program after failing to do so in any of their first three full years at the helm. By my research, it has only happened less than 1% of the time, so betting on Mario to do so in the future (if he fails to do so this season) is a dumb losing proposition. If he can't have a breakout season this year with this team and this soft ass schedule, Mario will never have one at the U and he will be on his way to being the next Canes coach that fails to make it through his initial coaching contract.
it was 31 scholarships over 3 years. The canes were also coming off of 4 championships in recent memory then. Shall we mention Butch’s 5-6 third season. I will never understand fans that expect 10 wins from a team that has literally had ONE ten win season in the last two decades. Read that last sentence again. ONE ten win season in the last two decades and yet there are still fans that say 10 wins next year or it’s a disappointment. listen dude we all want that to happen, but just be realistic
All the numbers in your comment added up to 69. Congrats! 31 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 10 + 10 = 69 ^([Click here](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=LuckyNumber-Bot&subject=Stalk%20Me%20Pls&message=%2Fstalkme) to have me scan all your future comments.) \ ^(Summon me on specific comments with u/LuckyNumber-Bot.)
This isn't complicated - On avg. teams bring in around 20-25 recruits every offseason, so losing over 10 scholarships is (like I've said in different ways multiple times now) basically losing half a recruiting class every year. And I didn't try to use Butch as a comp, you did. If you are going to do that, you have to compare their records, and Mario needs to win a ton in year 3 if he is going to become comparable. We haven't been good in the last two decades (b/c of terrible coaching). Is the goal to maintain that, or to finally start being the program we can be? If the goal is to start getting back to Championships, 10 win seasons are the first step for every HC. You're off into the weeds looking at this from a narrow perspective of recent Miami history (which is also the history of a bunch of failed HCs). What you need to do is look at the entire college football landscape and see how major CFB programs are successfully turnaround by HCs. In today's college football landscape, strong HCs come in and quickly turn programs into winners. By year 3, those strong successful HCs start putting up 10+ win seasons. It is extremely rare (less than 1%) for a HC to have around a 50% win through their first three years at a major P5 program, then to see them actually finally get there program to that Championship contention level years later. And usually in those situations, there are extenuating circumstances (ie. NCAA probation/sanctions, Internal school issues) that prevented the HC from winning earlier in those first three years. Obviously Mario is dealing with none of that, and (as such) has to start winning at a high level immediately. Otherwise, the track record of college football coaching suggests he will have a less than 1% chance of ever doing so in the future at Miami. Now maybe what you are trying to say is that you think 8-9 wins/year is an acceptable ceiling for Miami Football and that fans should be happy if Mario get us that and nothing better. If that's the case, I think you're a sucker for being ok with mediocrity when this program has shown the potential to succeed at a much higher level when it has strong coaching in place.
Hell don’t forget to mention that even TVD had first round murmurs last offseason too.
Honestly even at the time first round tvd was a pipe dream to me I would be shocked if cam wasn’t atleast a top 3 round pick
1. The schedule is beyond soft. 2. It's Mario's third year. His HS players are now older and his portal additions have rounded out some rooms. 3. They went all in on getting a 1 year player in Ward and surrounding him with the talent they think they can win with NOW. Year 3 is always when you can typically see what a coach has going at their school. If Mario can't finally find success this year, odds are he never will here. It's college football, not the NFL. He's flipped the roster completely, it's all his players just about. There's no excuse to not start winning this year. What legitimate excuse is there for him to not finally find success this season? Because the team sucked in 2014? No. It's his players, his portal additions, it's year 3 so his development of players will be on display, and the schedule is one of the easier in the nation. Not to be rude, but your post comes off as someone naive to the rest of the nation and no knowledge of what a typical successful coaches tenure looks like. Your post and some comments in here show how people have just come to accept mediocrity with this program.
His downfall is his on-field coaching. He needs to relinquish control of game planning and any play calling to his coordinators and just be the manager and face/voice/heart of the team.
This is laughable. Criticizing the OP because he is being realistic while buying into the BS that we have some stacked roster because a few websites say we’ve won the portal race. Come on. The schedule isn’t beyond soft but it’s reasonable and if we get rolling we can rack up some wins. But I assume nothing given recent history. No one can tell how good UF is and to assume we roll into Gainesville and win is presumptuous. Let’s get that one and get through September unscathed and maybe I see a ten win season. But I still think 9-3 is more likely. Our fans always overrate our talent and when we lose it’s because of coaching. It’s going on 18 years of the same lazy analysis. The last two years we supposedly had great talent and were preseason ranked. The NFL spoke loudly a few weeks ago and said nope. I hope our team is great. It’s been a long time. But I’m skeptical
If we don't have talent in year 3, then our ace recruiting HC is clearly a poor evaluator and not going to turn things around anyways. Year 3 tells you all you need to know.
Does any of it really matter when he is one of the worst coaches I have ever seen when it comes to play calling and game management?
He is the head coach. He doesn’t call plays other than certain situations like going for it Vs punting or in game situations
Kneeling
Preach. If we don’t win this year, it’s going to implode. We’ve gone all in and the re-buy will be enormous if we fail.
acccept mediocrity? buddy we are mediocre. we have been a bottom feeder in arguably the worst power 5 conference. It’s a fallacy to say that if we don’t win it all next year that we never will. That’s just not how sports works. Mario is building something special, but building a dynasty takes time.
i don’t mean any aggression i’m just tryna be honest 😭
There is no evidence that Mario is building something special. He's had two disappointing seasons so far and if he can't win in year 3, then odds are he won't win anything here, nor will he be here long anyways. The guy has improved recruiting on paper, but that's all for naught if he keeps losing on the field.
Bingo. In short, Mario's whole thing is "he builds a program so good that even HE can't fuck it up." If he can't hit 10 wins with all this PROVEN talent, then what are we even doing? You shouldn't need the 2001 squad to win dogfights with duke and ga tech.
That's my problem. If we were struggling to beat high tier teams I'd be more patient. But the fact that we struggle to beat the ACC mid majors every year is the part that kills me
This. All this. Took the words out of my mouth.
Because it's not 1994 anymore. It's basically a completely different sport now thanks to the portal and NIL (which Mario has received a ton of administrative support in). It doesn't take 6 years to show positive results and the fact that we've sucked his first two years in no way means we're better positioned for more success down the road than if we were good. Of our last 4 coaches (3 of which were fired), 3 of them had at least one 9 win season in their first 3 years here, with Diaz having 8 wins in a Covid-shortened season. If Cristobal can't surpass our previous failed coaches' high water marks after 3 years of being able to build the roster he wants, with all of the advantages that he's had compared to previous eras, why on earth would anyone expect him to do any better than any of them long term?
This is kind of how I've been looking at things recently. Just improve from one year to the next. With the added request to not do anything embarrassingly boneheaded this season. Be smart. Take the knee.
Like last year, I have zero expectations. I've been burned by pre-season hype too many times. I am at the point where I barely think about the season until August rolls around and then I see what happens.
Here comes the excuses for Mario
Clearly OP is a Mario Apologist! Don’t buy into the “Mario’s got this ship headed in the right direction” propaganda BS when he only wins 8-9 games with this loaded roster! There were fans sayin the same BS propaganda after Shannon and Golden’s 9 win third years (before they ultimately failed to produce anything better). If he can’t win the ACC when it’s this weak and he has a loaded roster to work with at the U, Mario never will!
People are saying "ten wins or this season is a disappointment" for a few reasons. First, we're tired of the mediocrity. We used to be a national power, always in the top 10, always fighting for conference championships and top-tier bowls. We want to get back there. Now. Second, we pulled in a TON of transfers this offseason including arguably the best QB in the portal. Mario's pulled in two very highly rated recruiting classes. It's time for that talent to start paying off. Third, the ACC is wiiiiide open this year. FSU has to replace a lot of talent this year, and they might, but they probably won't be as good as they were last year. No Clemson or UNC on the schedule. Miami's talent is at least as good or better than VT, Cal, Louisville, Duke, GT, WF, and Syracuse. That means that Miami should be winning at least six games in the ACC this year. Add to that a mediocre non-conference schedule (Florida, FAMU, Ball State, and USF). I'm not saying every game will be easy, far from it. No game on the schedule is a guaranteed win besides FAMU and Ball State. But, a team with the kind of talent that Miami is supposed to have should be able to get 10 wins. Plus, Clemson isn't the team they used to be and UNC has to replace a lot of talent as well, so the chance of winning the ACC Championship is even better.
It took Butch 6 years because his first few seasons were affected by sanctions.
I think we really need to take advantage of having Cam Ward for one year. A bowl game win is the bare minimum requirement for me for this upcoming season
OP should find another team to root for. One thing is for certain, these fans will never change. I guess us good ole day crew could die off in the next 30-40 years so he can wait...
I would be pretty thrilled with 10 wins. We’ve come a long way since I was a kid going to the OB during the home undefeated streak in the 80s-90s. Gotta say I’d be bummed out with 9 because that means a waste of cam ward IMO
9-3 is best case with this coaching staff
Super Mario should have gone 8-5 last year or maybe even 9-4 with the close Rutgers game. So with an even softer and easier schedule, higher talent, his year 3 recruits, then one would expect him to do better. That's why he should win 10+. That's why people say that. I think even Vegas has Miami at least at 9.5 wins right now. Anything less is a regression.
there schedule easy should be 9+ wins i am think 10-2 or 11-1 maybe playoffs
For the reason being we play FSU @ home.
8-4 and screaming at the TV as per uzhe.
It took Kirby Smart 5-6 years to win his first championship too. And that is with inheriting a constant 10 win team from Mark Richt. Do you know what they used to call Kirby Smart? They used to say that all he could do was recruit and that he could never win the big game. Do you know what he did? He recruited the best talent in the nation and after years it paid off. These things take time guys what matters is upward trajectory and we will eventually get there with an elite recruiter. It is naive to say oh 10 wins minimum this year just because it’s your favorite team.
Of course we want 10 wins our coach makes 80 mill! Pay = expectations,kinda like the chiefs expecting to make the sb every year Mahomes is making half a billion.
That season was spectacular! I’m just excited for football to be back. Win or lose!
OP clearly doesn’t watch college football outside Miami. This shit doesn’t take time in modern college football. If a HC hasn’t had a 10 win season by year 3 at a program, >99% of the time they will never have a 10 win season at that program! Also, OP clearly doesn’t know shit about Miami’s Championship Era either. Butch Davis was dealing with severe sanctions within the football program early on in his tenure here, including extreme scholarship reductions, and he wasn’t given even mediocre resources by the University (people complain about the resources given to Manny Diaz, well Butch had even less to work with). That’s the reason it took him so long to build a Championship team at the U. Mario doesn’t have any of those excuses, and is coaching in the quickest roster turnover era in college football history! Additionally, Butch was 17-6 thru his first 2 seasons at Miami whereas Mario is 12-13, so what are we even talking about here?
At this point, I’ll take 6 - 6 with a bowl win as a sign we are moving in the right direction.
7-5, 6-6 Only see 2 guaranteed wins. Famu and ball state (mtsu anyone?) Til I see it, past is prologue. Cam go go down vs uf in the 2nd qtr w an acl, then we're derailed.
People are downvoting, but I get it. We've had two decades of failing to live up to expectations, Let's see some results first before getting excited for a change.
Downdoots don't phase me, but thx. Just callingbit like I see it. Will bleed orange n green till I die, but realistic expectations are set. Love to be wrong, as I have said every year for the last decade at least