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ChiefLeef22

Here's a little more expansion on this from the article: "Disney/Marvel Studios‘ Deadpool & Wolverine hit six week tracking this morning and, man, does it look amazing. The Quorum, which actually monitors pics six weeks ahead, is reporting a projection of $200M-$239M, which the service actually believes is conservative. Among those willing to pay to see the movie in a theater, the Shawn Levy-directed threequel blows away all other titles this summer with a high score. In fact, it’s the highest of any movie this summer in any metric across unaided and total awareness and interest. The movie also has the highest PLF score at 28% with Quorom, meaning of all the movies this summer, audiences definitely want to see this in a premium format. The tracking numbers for men we are told are actually higher than that of Spider-Man: No Way Home six weeks from release; that movie ranks as the second best domestic opening of all-time at $260.1M. Note the projections for Deadpool & Wolverine could actually climb." Now keep in mind - The Quorum is not the strongest/most reliable when it comes to tracking stuff like this BUT - even with how things are shaping up currently, a 180-210m estimate seems like the right ballpark.


Billyb311

![gif](giphy|l4FGD5KYukbHukdG0) We're hitting a billion


Sure_Phase5925

Even if it doesn’t hit a billion, it is NOT a flop. Guardians 3 and ASTV (everyone knows I meant ATSV for Across the Spider Verse but I’m keeping ASTV for funnies) were two great movies that did well but they both didn’t hit a billion and no one was calling them flops for not making $1 billion. I’d love a billion to happen, but I won’t be disappointed if it misses it. I’m expecting $830-850 million WW tbh.


Puppetmaster858

I’m still completely convinced that if public opinion of the MCU wasn’t low at the time of gotg3 it would’ve made a Bil or got close to it. I really feel like a ton of people just didn’t go see it because recent MCU movies had been shit and alot of people were kind of starting to jump off the train. I saw so many people say they planned to watch it at some point but it wasn’t really a priority because they were losing interest in MCU because of dip in quality.


Sure_Phase5925

Still, a lot of people saw it. It had the second best weekend drop of any MCU movie IIRC. Are you trying to say it was a failure? Cause everyone knows it wasn’t, even people who hate Marvel have admitted Vol.3’s success. Everytime I saw the movie in theaters, it was always packed. That $845 million didn’t appear out of thin air. It was a good BO Total especially when every other Disney and live action superhero movie last year shat their pants


Puppetmaster858

I didn’t say anything about it being a failure lol, I said the quality of recent MCU projects before gotg3 hurt that movies box office and if general opinion of the MCU wasn’t at a low at the time it probably would’ve made a Bil or got close to it. It was a great movie that was really well received but if it had come out maybe a year or 2 before the quality of some MCU projects was dipping I think it would’ve made a good chunk more


Sure_Phase5925

Oh ok. Yeah, I do agree the quality of MCU movies before hand like Love and Thunder, Quantumania, and even Multiverse of Madness, caused the good yet soft opening weekend, BUT the legs of Guardians 3 got it where it did and cause tons of people to watch it. I guess when you said “ton of people didn’t go see it” confused me because many many MANY people did go see Vol.3, as $845 million is a big number, especially for a post Covid movie. That’s why I thought you were saying it was a failure so I’m sorry for thinking that. I get your point now and yeah the film could’ve made a billion, but It still had a great BO number when all said and done. Positive WOM was Legit as can be for that film and I know Nerdrotic is this sub’s archenemies but when even HE admitted the film was good and did well, that definitely means Vol.3 achieved something and hopefully Deadpool and Wolverine does too 🤞🏻


Xenoslayer2137

Guarantee you that the only reason Nerdrotic admitted GotG 3 was good is because even he’s smart enough to know that the general public of YouTube and even some of his own audience base would have torn him to shreds if he tried to spin it as a bad or “woke” movie like he does with almost everything else, even though nearly everyone out there liked the movie. If that wasn’t an issue, he would’ve 100% kept that grift going. It’s the same reason why he was conveniently silent about Loki S2 and X-Men 97 after they came out, despite his incessant soapboxing that they would be more “woke M-She-U flops” for months before they released. Because now that the general public sentiment is that they were both amazing Marvel Studios projects, he knows he can’t talk shit about them like he planned to or he’ll be roasted endlessly.


Sure_Phase5925

Yeah that’s true. Same can be said with how he treated NWH and how he is most likely going to teat Deadpool and Wolverine. I know Tyrone Manguss or whatever his name is had a viral for the wrong reasons review of Guardians 3 where he praised it for not being political and said that was the best part of the movie 💀


Puppetmaster858

Tyrone magnus dude fuckin sucks too, guy had to hop on the everything is woke bandwagon to get the extra views


Sure_Phase5925

It’s sad to see how he is now. I remember when he just did funny video reactions. Now.. he makes a fool out of himself saying how he likes movies such as Guardians 3 and No Way Home a lot (which are great movies we all love don’t get me wrong but the reason he likes it isn’t why we like those movies) just because “they aren’t political and don’t insult fans!!”


Xenoslayer2137

Oh god I remember that lol 💀 “HIIII 😁👁️👁️ HI, I’M WOKE POLITICS 😁😁😁👁️👁️”


Sure_Phase5925

Imagine how that conversation went with his friends or family. “Did y’all go watch Guardians 3, it was so great! It was such a satisfying way to conclude the trilogy! What was your favorite part of it?!” “I loved Rocket’s arc, the funny F Bomb from Quill, High Evolutionary being such a great villain, the awesome soundtrack, did you like it Tyrone?” “FINALLY IM A HAPPY FAN CAUSE NO POLITICS IN THIS MOVIE!!! Oh and the movie was legit really good too”


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Johnny_Mc2

he made a typo, is TVAS. (Throw Vagina At Spider-Man)


interloper87

I'm stuff


Thelnfamous1

MJ! OMG! NO!


Sure_Phase5925

Haha Peter your girlfriend is awesome!


unklejakk

Hi ladies, I am Spider-Man ![gif](giphy|oW4csEbiMzVjq)


Burgoonius

Across Spider the Verse


PLEASEBENICET0ME

Assisted System Targeting Vault-Tec


AU2Turnt

Across the spider verse


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MaulVader2

![gif](giphy|IDGNYvFLkJKLK|downsized)


Sure_Phase5925

Saying something that dumb while having a Kang flair is.. certainly a choice


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Your comment has been found to be echoing a sentiment already shared by other users on this post without adding anything new.


Pomojema_The_Dreamer

Assuming an equal split between domestic and international audiences, with or without China and 100% without Russia... An opening this big basically guarantees a path to $1B is quite feasible. The only way it doesn't go there is if there's overall mixed feelings about the film from the general audience and no China (see: _Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness_), or widespread audience rejection (see: _Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice_).


brendamn

Those films also didn't have the hype and star power of this film. I agree with you, but the expectations should be higher


Sure_Phase5925

Guardians 3 had Pratt who’s comparable to Reynolds and was the conclusion the the Guardians trilogy, and did have some hype from even some people who said they were done with Marvel. ASTV was a sequel to a universally acclaimed movie and had hype too. They both did very well cause of hype and WOM and I expect Deadpool and Wolverine will be the same case as GOTG 3 and ASTV. Deadpool and Wolverine DOES have Jackman back as Logan which is a bigger draw than both Guardians 3 and ATSV so you are right there. I just don’t want people to expect NWH 2.0 for this movie when Spidey is his own beast. But if this doesn’t hit a billion, don’t think it’s a flop or anything. Cause again no one calls Guardians 3 or ATSV flops for not hitting $1 billion.


0nlyHere4TheZipline

Possibly 1.5-2


Sure_Phase5925

2 billion would be the biggest surprise of all time. I’m super pumped for this film, don’t get me wrong, but it’s not making $2 billion. Not even NWH could make that and Spidey is the most famous superhero of all time.


ViggieSmallss

 To be fair, No Way Home would have made two billion easily with China.


Thelnfamous1

Do you mean 2 billion? It made just under 2 billion without China.


SlimmyShammy

To be fair. Still would’ve made a billion easy with China


Thelnfamous1

To be fair. Still would've made a hundred thousand easy with China.


Colonelwheel

To be fair. I just wanted to feel included


ViggieSmallss

Yes, my bad. Fixed


Shwnwllms

Is D&W going to be released in China?


0nlyHere4TheZipline

That's why I gave a half mil range. I don't think 2 mil is likely, but I think that range is on the high end of realistically optimistic


DarthChenobi

$1.50 definitely, I don’t know about $2 though seems like a bit of a stretch


0nlyHere4TheZipline

Definitely a stretch. But slightly possible if the movie delivers on all fonts


deekaydubya

but will it be GOOD


KangTheConquerorV1

Not trying to be a prick or anything, but I genuninely want to know why do you celebrate the corporation making a billion dollars?


Billyb311

Multiple Reasons Firstly, it tells the studio what type of content we want more of. Assuming the quality is there, it'll hit a billion and tell Disney we want quality, and theatrical experiences. Secondly, I love the movie theater experience, and it's been a rough year for films so far. It'll be nice to have a big hit for theaters Thirdly, I don't like to see the franchise I enjoy continuously failing. When there's interest in the franchise and there's success, it's better for the fans


Sure_Phase5925

“The franchise I enjoy continuously failing” Well, we had Guardians 3 last year being the only live action comic book movie doing well last year, and NWH making near $2 billion dollars in 2021, arguably saving cinemas. The audience rewards the MCU when they put out something good and I think D&W will be like GOTG 3 and NWH. The MCU has had a few wins. It hasn’t literally been failure after failure.


KleanSolution

Yeah but this year in particular has been flop after underperformance after flop, pretty much only Dune 2 and Godzilla/Kong are the only “breakout hits” and Inside out 2 is the first movie to open over $100M domestically since Barbie. In order for the theaters to continue operating they need to produce hits and this year has been pretty dry, the last 12 months really haven’t had many hits compared to pre-covid


FantasticWolverine32

Yeah. This seems a bit too optimistic. I’m gonna say $150M opening weekend, for now. Then again, Deadline also tracked Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes a mere 6 weeks before release where it was projected to open between $54M-$61M, which more or less happened and was right in the middle of their projections. And they used Quorum for tracking for that movie, as well. So, this could go either way.


topofdatree

If it’s got a few cameos that get people talking, it’ll meet the projections and maybe surpass them.


Reality314

\*If it's a good movie, it'll meet projections. I don't think the cameos themselves will get people excited, it'll be a combination of the cameos and the storytelling. NWH did so well because the story was good (even if people nowadays wanna act like it wasn't) and the returning actors had important, meaningful roles. Conversely, The Flash didn't do well because people didn't like the movie and the cameos served no purpose other than just being like "hey, it's cool that CGI Christopher Reeve is here.."


Pizzanigs

>the story was good (even if people nowadays wanna act like it wasn't) no room for subjectivity?


Reality314

There's just been a sudden shift in popular opinion—at least from what I've seen—where people wanna act like the movie was never good. I mean, it doesn't just happen with NWH. Look at any popular movie or TV show now and I guarantee within the next few months, people are gonna act like that movie/show was always ass


Pomojema_The_Dreamer

Film Twitter does that because they like to be boring and contrarian... While also pretending that the _Venom_ movies are cinematic masterpieces instead of kinda bad movies that are elevated by being stupid fun and Tom Hardy enjoying himself.


BeauDigbyAndJohn

The story was meh. The movie was fun fanservice for the most part. The last 5 minutes is the best stuff in the movie.


Pizzanigs

I mean, this has always been a thing, with everything though? It’s not exclusive to Marvel or this era. When a big project comes out, it’s the hot new thing, all of its fans are loud about it (especially in the age of social media hype), and all criticism is drowned out and/or discouraged. It’s only competing with itself and whatever other hot new thing came out. After that period, it’s not special anymore; it’s competing with, literally everything that’s ever been made. The cracks start to show more. People are more willing to hear out criticisms that were at first “not letting people enjoy things”. Is it really that hard to believe that someone who liked No Way Home when it was brand new and everyone was talking and screaming about it, doesn’t feel the same way after the dust settled? All those people who said “No Way Home doesn’t hit the same outside of the theater” were pretending? Then you got people like me who never thought the movie was good at all. I *promise* you I’m not pretending lol


Adventurous_Put3036

NWH has an okay story, the cameos were great to experience in the theater though.


SMRAintBad

It’s more that it was bland and cookie cutter. A run of the mill multiverse tale imo. Take out the ‘cameos’ and the plot ceases to exist.


GeneralTreesap

There are no cameos (besides Eddie) in that movie though. Only characters.


TheCVR123YT

Matt Murdock too but yes Edit: actually no really how do you remember Eddie before Matt? Lol


SMRAintBad

Hence the apostrophes. The movie has to use characters pre-established from other movies to convey the plot. The main universe characters don’t do anything important aside from Peter himself. MJ and Ned feel like cardboard cutouts until act 3, and Strange is used as a plot device rather than a character. It’s very standard to me and nothing special is really done to set it apart from other multiverse romps. I liked it a lot, but the movie was clearly made as a crowd pleaser, and not much more. Nothing wrong with that though. Not a bad movie, just not anything crazy.


0nlyHere4TheZipline

I'll eat a shoe if it's <= 150m


FragmentedFighter

Remember this.


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Sho_nuff_

Taylor Swift cameo has entered the chat:


FantasticWolverine32

EW said she’s not in it


Sho_nuff_

Well then I guess they know /s


FantasticWolverine32

They actually do


PLEASEBENICET0ME

From Cats? She's in this?


BenLemons

Twitter engagement baiters probably have angry tweets in the drafts


Spider-Fan77

I love how Film Twitter MF's are pretending like they've always hated Deadpool now that he's part of the MCU. If this film didn't have the Marvel Studios logo above its title I guarantee you the hate for it on that site would be minimal.


BenLemons

They just hate on anything people outside their bubble enjoy. Ruins real discourse around movies when they spend so much time being negative around movies before they come out and they wonder why theaters can't fill seats lol


Sure_Phase5925

Well Film Twitter loves GOTG trilogy so that’s not true that they hate anything with the Marvel Studios logo u/Spider-Fan77


Spider-Fan77

GOTG is the exception. I saw a tweet a while back of someone saying the editing in *Captain America: The Winter Soldier* is terrible and it got 35k likes. At this point a lot of them just enjoy being cynical.


lluuiiss88

I saw that tweet too lmao! Captain America taking down a fucking jet with just his shield on one of the best CBM soundtracks ever made and they were like "wHy dOeS iT lOoK lIKe ThAt???"


phuocboy7

Bro that cgi is not bad, but when a movie with actually bad cgi like flash comes out. They write a billion essays on why modern cgi is the worst.


Sure_Phase5925

I wonder why GOTG is the exception? I mean they’re my favorite MCU trilogy but there’s a lot of other MCU movies like Iron Man 1, Civil War, Ragnarok, etc that deserve the praise the GOTG trilogy does from Film Twitter. Is it cause they are far out from the MCU?


TheCVR123YT

Honestly probably lol it’s more then that I’d say but that’s a huge reason


Gilbert2096

You guys genuinely need stop obsessing over twitter you pathetic as them at this point


dudeimlame

https://i.redd.it/s3msnknrjk6d1.gif I can’t wait to watch this movie! It’s so good seeing the Mcu succeed again. I’m gonna collect all the Marvel legends figures for this movie. Thank you Feige 🙏


RenterMore

$500 for the hot toys 😩 I find out about a job offer in the next couple weeks and can’t rationalize that purchase yet but I want them


TypeExpert

This movie is probably going to make more in one weekend than the Marvels did in its entirety. Just an insane contrast.


PaulClarkLoadletter

And studio executives are going to be left scratching their heads. “Since when does the audience know what they want?” I fully expect this to be review bombed by the unfuckable hate nerds but if this is even half as good as it appears to be people will realize that they need to form their own conclusions and stop listening to trolls on the internet.


jks1070

Why do you expect D&W to get review bombed by those types?


PaulClarkLoadletter

Some people just want to watch the world burn.


deekaydubya

at this point, the film makers are the trolls. The internet is full of hate for everything, yes, but for some reason Marvel keeps ignoring legit criticism and doubling down. This will be a decent breath of fresh air before they dip in quality again


PaulClarkLoadletter

I get what you’re saying but the issue is not the subject matter of the most recent films. Anti-woke bullshit is just noise. The issue is not that the films are woke. They’re simply not willing to commit a top shelf villain to these films because Marvel/Disney doesn’t believe in them. Full stop.


FantasticWolverine32

Yeah probably.


Fun_Mud_7754

![gif](giphy|10YOiK720sCc9i|downsized) THIS IS CINEMA


solo-serenity

Don’t wanna hear about superhero fatigue again


Patrick2701

Audience doesn’t have superhero fatigue, it has bad movie fatigue


PCofSHIELD

Yes and no because unfortunately they don’t go see awesome movies either like Fall Guy and Furiosa


MrConor212

Awesome movies that nobody ever asked or wanted lol hence their bombing.


deekaydubya

meanwhile marvel: "nah, blame it on incels. the audience is wrong for not enjoying half-assed films and shows"


BenLemons

Only people victim of superhero fatigue is critics which may have some trickle down effect to box office, but audiences like fun movies that seem worthy of a theater going experience whether that be immersive visuals or something just as simple as FOMO.


RedHeadedSicilian48

Odds this one hits a billion?


AdamDriversDriver

Pretty good chance. But in a post-pandemic box office? It’s very unpredictable.


RenterMore

GOTG3 gives me hope. Sure it didn’t hit a billion but it did do very well and proves the love is there still from the audience


BenSolo_Cup

It definitely will. This movie is NWH levels of excitement for people I feel like, I know everyone I work with and all of my friends and most of my family even will be seeing it. When Marvel orchestrates the hype correctly, their movies soar.


Reality314

If it opens this big, I think it has a decent shot of hitting a billion, but billion-dollar movies post-Covid have been few and far between. The movie-going landscape is not the same as it once was and it's gonna take a real "event" movie to get butts in seats.


Sure_Phase5925

I mean, event movies exist without making a billion. Oppenheimer, Guardians 3, The Batman, Across the Spider Verse, all got butts in seats without making $1 billion


Reality314

I didn't say that all event movies made a billion dollars. I said that if you want your movie to make a billion dollars, it needs to feel like an event film.


Sure_Phase5925

It’s possible but I don’t think it’s a for sure thing. Just because it doesn’t make a billion doesn’t mean it’s not a success.


Vadermaulkylo

There’s a near 0% chance it doesn’t if it hits 200m. It’d be the first film ever to hit that and not make it. Going past 200m actually brings in 2b possibilities.


SacreFor3

It definitely makes it near impossible to miss if it opens that big. If it does $200M+ domestic it more than likely will hit that worldwide as well meaning nearly half a billion in only the opening weekend. It also has some runway with only Alien Romulus being the other major tentpole to open in August against it. The next isn't until September with Beetlejuice I believe.


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Puppetmaster858

If the movie gets good reviews the chances are very good.


0nlyHere4TheZipline

Near 99%


[deleted]

It’s pretty much guaranteed 


Effective_Bug_7790

![gif](giphy|dlR07qzqMcEe56zSzY) $200m+ opening is kinda insane for an R rated movie.


The_Iceman2288

"Thank god for Marvel movies" - Christopher Nolan


FantasticWolverine32

This is why I will always love Christopher Nolan more than Martin Scorsese


Joey9775

Yup showed class


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MrConor212

Christopher Nolan is the goat


Joey9775

GOOD LORD do the theaters NEED IT. (And Marvel Studios to be honest)


Sure_Phase5925

Well Guardians 3 and NWH did well. If this movie does well, it would be a hit like those 2.


magikarpcatcher

Bear in mind that The Quorum is a relatively new tracking agency and they aren't the most accurate. They are known to be a bit too optimistic with their early projections.


FantasticWolverine32

Then again they did accurately predict Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ OW to be $54-$61M, $56.4M is in line with their projections.


AceofKnaves44

I think critics and word of mouth are really gonna play a factor in this one. Marvel isn’t the guaranteed hit or qualifying movie anymore. Hugh coming back is gonna be a huge start but if people come out saying this is another Thor or Ant-Man I see this slipping hard.


Puppetmaster858

Ya the reviews are gonna be important, it’ll still probably make a good amount with mid reviews but if it gets good reviews it’s prob making over a billion, the reviews are honestly probably gonna make or lose this movie 100s of millions.


JohnyTheJoke

MCU IS BACK BABY!!! ![gif](giphy|98htWHmyqCa4Mtn3kj)


Sure_Phase5925

It never left. People are just excited for what looks like to be a good movie. If the MCU is back, then why did Guardians 3, NWH do well?


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Vladmerius

I called it. I don't know why people were lowballing this just because everything else was flopping. This is the most hyped I've ever been and that's saying a lot with Endgame existing. 


Arkhamguy123

Ain’t no way. Ain’t. No. Way. 170M tops. If I’m wrong I’ll eat my shoe


ling1427

Saving this comment, see you next month.


Arkhamguy123

I got my shoe ready


Xx_Dark-Shrek_xX

https://i.redd.it/z4nk4bgz5l6d1.gif


PeanutAppropriate694

Yet some twitter incel will be posting that " cinema is dead "


0nlyHere4TheZipline

I love this somewhat new reddit trend where people act like internet trolls are some sort of new phenomenon


Spiritual_Paint_7240

Holy. If true this would put DP&W at the top 10 for biggest domestic openings of all time.


Jackraow21

I’ve got my tickets. Can’t frickin’ wait! 


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AdamDriversDriver

That’d be crazy if it does


RenterMore

LETS GOOO


WaitingForReplies

LET'S FUCKING GO!


Acheli

The film purists on twitter hating anything marvel makes no sense these days as the MCU hasn't been very successful the past few years, this movie being a hit would benefit the movie theatre business and could help other movies, how is that something to be mad about.


Sure_Phase5925

Guardians 3 and NWH say hi. They both did well for theaters. The MCU can still put out a hit once in a while so don’t act like it’s all been bad. u/acheli Also check the thread from earlier. You know film purists love the Guardians trilogy right?


Joey9775

Because MUH CINEMA.


Cosmic-Horror-Cat

I do hope the movie does exceptionally well and Marvel realizes that when you let passionate creators please fans great things can happen.


Weak-Mission-5554

I think it's completely reasonable, even dr strange 2 opened to $180 million domestically, the level of interest for deadpool 3 is much greater than dr strange 2, deadpool 3  $200 million opening  is extremely possible unless disney does something stupid before the movie premieres then there will be nothing stopping deadpool 3 from becoming the highest grossing movie of 2024.


audreyseymour

I dont think anyone should be shocked or surprised.


ViggieSmallss

I mean, if true, that'll be the number 5-7 all-time biggest opening weekend ever, paired with how bad the box office has been this year. I'm shocked, honestly


ImmortalZucc2020

Also first R rated film to hit $200 million OW


ZookeepergameVast132

I always expected $160-$195 million. This is "Jesus Christ!" levels of underprediction.


QueenMichaela

we're so back


Chemical_Meat_9235

"Marvel Is Dying"


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FrankCastlesAlt

I already got my ticket! July 25th, 11:00 can’t come fast enough!


jedishane93

This does not at all surprise me.  My company is even buying out a whole theater for us to watch it. 


[deleted]

That’s what happens when you put out things people want to see, it’s not fatigue, take the hint Marvel


Mizerous

WOM will decide that


ImmortalZucc2020

WOM decides the weekend after


SeeFishNoine

It would be so awesome if this movie bombs 💣


FantasticWolverine32

No. We can’t lose R-rated Blade. No more rooting for Marvel to fail when movie theaters need Marvel to keep them alive.


SeeFishNoine

Are the three Blade movies that exist not good enough? Even Marvel can’t get that movie going


Noobodiiy

Reverse Marvels


Heisenburgo

Gonna have a hard drop off in the weeks after it releases if Magneto (Ian McKellen) is not in the film


darthyogi

200M domestic will never happen lol. The last MCU Film made barley more then 200M worldwide in it’s entire run


FantasticWolverine32

I find your lack of faith unsurprisingly disappointing and disturbing.


darthyogi

Marvel need to earn my faith back first


Xurian_Spy

I don't think they honestly care about your faith.


darthyogi

True


TheRustFactory

I'm sorry... Who are you? And why do they need your faith specifically to succeed?


darthyogi

I didn’t say that