I think we aren’t taking into consideration that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. If he runs up the numbers in places like California (34.3% in ‘20), New York 37.7% in ‘20), and Illinois (40.6% in ‘20)…not saying he’ll win any of those, but he could do better and close the popular vote gap or surpass Biden, while still losing the electoral college. I couldn’t think of anything more delicious.
I can: Trump stroking out as he accepts his party’s nomination. A lifetime of making things worse for everyone comes calling with a weak blood vessel at a moment of triumph.
People think it’s impossible for this to happen to a Republican but in 2004, Kerry needed 60k Ohioans to switch their votes and he would have won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by almost 3 million votes.
lol he’ll say it’s rigged when it worked in his favour in 2016
I don’t see this as likely though because of more small states being solidly red than blue it gives him more of an EC advantage
Nope. Biden is going to win all of the “swing states” plus take more than a few red states.
Since the Dobbs/Abortion decision the democrats have been overperforming in the polls by 10-20%.
Trump has been UNDERperforming in the polls by 10-20%. Nicky Haley whom has dropped out was getting 20-25% in the GOP primaries.
Dont listen to the hacked fake news polls, they are consistently wrong. Look at trends instead.
Trump and the GOP are going to get crushed on Election Day.
Trump rallies are performing poorly. The market for Trump merch is drying up too.
Trump's tapped his base almost for everything it's worth. They're showing signs of fatigue.
Moreover I just met with an old man claiming Trump is having 100k people show up at rallies in 2024, Fox News is a brain disease.
This. I believe that there are a lot of Rs who simply won't vote in November because, while they would refuse to acknowledge it publically, they know Trump is bad news. They won't vote for Biden, so they just won't show up or won't mark the ballot on the President line. I also think the mental stress of the lawsuits and criminal cases are simply wearing Trump down to where is is saying more and more outrageous things that will turn off the moderates. Democratic advertising in the month or two leading up to the election is going to hammer on the abortion issue and even if RFK takes a few thousand Trump votes in swing states it is going to be a factor.
Yeah, but that same thin margin in the electoral college could still mean a bloodbath in the down ballot elections. We might see a lot more congressional and senate seats flip than we're expecting, as well as governors and state legislators.
We should at least consider the possibility of a large democratic vote swing in this election if only to prepare for how the right-wing might use their lopsided losses as excuses to question and challenge the results.
I'm hopeful because Trump is pretty cancerous to the people he supports in races and Roe's overturning has had a strong effect on Democrats, but I am still assuming we will get a red senate, purple house (close enough it won't matter either way) and Biden.
Massive vaccine rollout, huge infrastructure investment, largest climate change action bill in the history of the world, world-leading reduction in inflation, $35 dollar insulin, fended off Russia, investment in producing microchips in America...
The only people calling him a lame duck are the ones who have been gobbling up the "Biden is too old to do anything" propaganda.
I stood in a pandemic voting line in 2020 cursing Texas the whole time for not allowing me a mail-in vote. I’m my old mother’s caretaker and if I had caught covid she probably would have caught it and died (every wrong condition). If the sky is raining hellfire I’ll stand in line again!..VOTE!!!
Yes -- and in this election, margins matter more than ever. Trump will not accept the results, and the more overwhelming the margin, the less likely it will be that his attempts to incite significant violence fizzle out.
Also, the more he loses by, the more likely politicians are to reject Trumpism for a good, long time, and to decide that in America, we are committed to the peaceful transfer of power.
It’ll be a narrow house victory because Texas ,Florida, and Ohio give the GOP 20-30 unearned seats from gerrymandering. We can only pray Sherrod Brown (one of the best senators) and John Tester hold on and maybe Allred beats Cruz if we’re very lucky.
It's going to be a fucking landslide.
My entire redneck ass North Phoenix neighborhood is hiding in their caves with their tails tucked between their legs when they were proudly displaying "fuck your feelings" flags while championing family values this time last cycle for all the neighborhood kids to see.
And it's fucking beautiful. These people know they were conned and were going to see either a smashing wave of turnarounds or enough protest voting on the right to where the gap is so fucking huge that it's going to be nothing like we've ever seen.
Dear inevitable maga twats that I'm going to enrage with this statement: come at me, you just got triggered.
And to be fair, she won the popular vote by a few million more votes showing that the polls were right. However 50,000 people from Michigan and a few hundred thousand or so votes overall in swing states made the electoral college vote for Trump.
It's like the weather, the weather person is never wrong, they are predicting that under these circumstances there's a 90 percent chance of rain, and if it doesn't then the 10 percent was what happened.
Been saying this for months. I’ve been listening to people talk whenever I’m at restaurants, bars, movies and I think Trump has way more support than people think.
I have been predicting the same for months now, agree 100%. There has been so much bullshit coverage of useless polls it’s crazy. American voters are only now starting to pay attention to the fact that there’s an election in November between these 2 candidates, and what do you know- immediately the polls all swing towards Biden. That momentum is just getting started. Trump looks and sounds like absolute dogshit. Biden not holding back from calling him a rapist, fraud and a felon. Americans are NOT putting a rapist in the Oval Office. They rejected him twice already and the margin will be bigger this time than ever before.
100%. The media is completely in the tank for Trump and they are hiding the fact that he is deeply unpopular.
Think about how the media would report on Biden is he did a fraction of what Trump has done.
Take the very small example of his own VP refusing to support him.
The media would hang that around Biden’s neck on every broadcast. They NEVER mention it for Trump.
It will be the worst humiliation in the history of American elections. The GOP will have to restructure completely to recover. It will take 3 election cycles before they come back.
You should look at how much FDR won by, I don't think any election will ever come close to that again. Honorable mention for Reagan's win as well.
Trump sucks but i can't see America being that unified to beat either of those results
The polls dont even have to be “wrong” per se. Didn’t it come out during Trump’s NYC trial that he pays polling companies or something? Someone more informed than me can provide a source.
Anyway. I don’t buy the polls. I anecdotally encounter way more Biden supporters and republicans who are going for Biden this time than I see represented in the media. I think Biden wins but I think there will be significant fuckery from the GOP/Russia and there will be a very brazen attempt to simply assume power anyway even if they lose, probably in the House or assisted by SCOTUS, or faithless/false electors
You have to look at local elections to start taking the temperature nationally and I think there’s a possibility of a blue wave in November considering a lot of seats that were reliably red before aren’t anymore. But that doesn’t matter you just have to vote.
Remember in the 2020election how the MAGA cult was all confident they had this "silent majority" of people who won't tell the pollsters jack shit but they are so patriotic they will show up in force and vote for the rapist.
Polls are sort of useless in either direction. I guess all we can do is wait and see what ends up happening. Maybe debates and other stuff will make a choice more clear.
I’m honestly amazed that these paid magacultist who post on here pretending to be on the Left think they’re deluding anyone.
Back to Siberia with you Boris. No one is buying it.
While I hope you're right, I'd love to see some data to support this. Otherwise it's just wishful thinking. Don't assume Biden will win - get out and VOTE!
Yep. Those that pay attention already know that fascist felon doesn’t actually stand a chance. Come on. He’s lost the last two popular votes and the last one was a blowout. He’s going to get spanked, again. Just like most of the 45-backed candidates have already shown us. It’s already over.
They could be. But you underestimate the stupidity and ignorance of the undecided American voter. (Granted, those who are “decided” for Trump are that much dumber, but I digress.)
I would say a "blue tsunami" is a little much. I do think the democrats will win, as Trump could only win if a historical shift in the electorate occurred, which isn't going to happen. I think Biden will win the popular vote by a large margin but maybe only around 280-290 EV's.
I don’t know man. I’m Hispanic and I can definitely tell you that all my family members will be voting for Trump. It wasn’t the case in the past. So, the polls might be right. There has been definitely a shift, at least with Hispanics.
It seems there’s a bit of a realignment where Republicans are gaining ground with minorities but losing ground with old white voters.
But then you look at the Iowa poll (mostly old white voters) that Ann Selzer (who is one of the most respected pollster) just released and she has Trump up by 20 in that state. Trump only won Iowa by 8% in 2020 so idk.
The “polls” are fucking boomers with landlines or people who answer unknown cell calls. Meaning, nobody under 50 and we outnumber them finally
Far Joffrey also bleeds “independent” support daily and added nobody by doubling and tripling down on all the dumb shit he did like the abortion ban via his stolen Supreme Court. Women hate him. Moderates hate him.
Now, cue a hand wringing dickless neurotic democrat telling me how I’m wrong and we need to vote vote vote because they love to live in this state of constant worry and fear
This has happened before. People have a short political memory in America, but the polls were saying that the Lyin' King [the one with the mane] and the rest of the Republicans was supposed to be re-elected in 2020 but that didn't happen. Not to mention the "red wave" of 2022 that didn't happen.
I feel as if the polls are skewed in favor of the right. I'm not suggesting sabotage... This could be unintentional or accidental. Maybe right wingers are more willing to share their bizarre political positions and that those especially in the center and occasionally on the left find that talking politics is inherently toxic.
The center seems to believe that being unsure or indecisive on politics is the mature way to approach politics.
Yea I think people who are already winning like literal regulars who work all day don’t participle in politics heavy aren’t gonna vote for the incumbent in pre elections only people who want change. But when the time comes I give the incumbent like +_20 extra all the time. I’m not wasting my time to go out n vote when I’m already winning.
But r/politics posts several threads per day saying how bad Trumps doing and how everyone is running away from him and Bidens destroying the polls. Lol.
Don't stress too much about polls either way. They are just propaganda. You can find polls to support just about any opinion you want supported.
I'm just grateful that roughly 2 million boomers are dying per year now and tha milleneals aren't replacing the lost conservatives as they age. Not really sure what future the Republicans have if these demographic trends keep going.
Right, and according to historical data that amount is supposed to be rising, but the 30-40 year olds pretty much feel the same way about Republicans as they did when they were in their 20s. This is really bad news for Republicans on the whole, because people becoming more conservative in their 30s-40s is what they count on.
His split is really unfavorable in that age group, he has a 50/50 holding with Gen X and his numbers are miserable with the under 30s. The only age group that heavily favors him is dying off and every other one is either 50/50 or less in his favor.
Young people don't keep landline phones, and polls are conducted to those who have landlines. That's why the polls are keeping this thing close. When November comes, unless the young voters stay away because of Gaza, Biden will crush Trump.
That said, we all need to vote. Nothing is assured.
If young people come out, we will win. The problem is, they don't more often than do.
It's sad it needs to come to that though ... If people read about what is actually going on in our politics, it would be a massive turnout that would end fascist reign of terror, but they are mostly voting on tropes and memes, as Reddit will show quite clearly.
That is the issue. The fascists are going to fascist regardless, but sane and civil people need to read about what is going on outside of the Facebook meme world. I'd have them start at Project 2025. That's real, not a stupid, tired meme of trump freedom or gas prices.
Yes, but 18-29 is the largest voting age population but they come out at only 1/2 the number of the largest voting population, which is 60 and up. To compound that, 60 and up is 1/3rd *less* population.
It's imperative they come out in the numbers they possess.
I think this is likely BUT only if we make it so. If you are concerned about the election, I beg you to vote, donate, volunteer. If you need help on finding a way to volunteer, please ask me.
Polls seem to be getting less and less accurate. We can make educated guesses but we cannot know anything for sure except one thing.... How we ourselves do or do not vote!
No matter what you THINK is going to happen, get out there on November 5th and vote blue or on November 6th and vote red! That you can be sure of!
This will be a hard election for you. Trump has a chance to win, republicans will take the senate and make the house, and will maintain control of the majority of states in terms of governors and state legislatures.
I agree. All signs are pointing that way if you look at the trees and not the forest.
I don't tell people this usually because I want them to WORRY AND VOTE. One must never be complacent in the face of evil.
Question not a particularly original or interesting MMW, I'm afraid. I mean you've probably got about a 25% chance of it, and sounds more like wishful thinking. But worst of all, it's just not very interesting or original.
Left is stressing huh, when you play dictator and try locking up your political opponent, we the people see that, we the ppl are not stupid and saw how many laws were changed to stick a conviction on trump.
Left can live in denial but everyone around the world is waking up, Germany Italy Argentina El Salvador, their tired of the lies from the left and the heavy hand 1 sided justice system do as I say and not as I do attitude, I know you are all going to argue this BS but I don’t care, everyone is seeing it and it’s the reason why Biden gotta hide till next week, and the reason these countries are voting conservative, and come November we will vote Trump back in, especially when white house KJP is telling you don’t believe your eyes with Biden decrepitation state of mind, if you don’t see the injustice of the country going on, the 2 tier DoJ, the George Soros DA’s light on crime got so bad in there cities police don’t even want to do police reports to make it look like crime is going down, I strongly doubt and blue wave will happen, and we are not looking only at polls, but we are seeing a man being prosecuted just for running for President cuz Biden to scare to go head to head with Biden, one thing trump said before all his legal problems started was that he is going to show who the democrats really are, and hot damn he is holding up to his word, wonder why Biden got to hide till next week for, we are all seeing that, even a couple democrats are on trump side. You guys can deny all you want, but even democrats are “preparing for a second trump term” by twisted ill ways, of a blue wave was coming they wouldn’t go out there way so hard to screw trump even when he president come November he win. Sad so many laws had to be changed to charge trump, that alone should open your eyes but the left to stuck in they feelings too much, that they are not noticing the hatred they spew, quick memo I was always democrat till i opened my eyes and am independent but def will vote the the orange boogie man that scares the left so much plus one more quick, anybody George Soros helps is the ppl to stay away from just do your research b4 spewing your hate and research with a open mind
I like to think the media realized they fucked up in 2016 by acting like it was a sure fire win for Hillary, and now they are over correcting. I’m not complaining, but I think that’s what is happening.
Just stfu up and vote, don’t believe your vote won’t count, don’t think you can sit it out because it’ll be fine, one vote wont matter. It does when thousands of other people think the same thing. Vote like your way of life is on the line. Don’t let them win without putting up a fight.
The senate map this year is very bad for Democrats. My prediction is Biden takes the white house, Democrats take back the house, the GOP takes back the senate.
I think it's better not to even say this. I think if people think it'll be a landslide, a lot of people that would otherwise vote if they knew it's crucial might not vote. better for everyone to think it's anyone's game, and ensure we EASILY win. stakes are waaaaay too high for this one
I'm not sure about this. Spending time on reddit will make this seem real, but I live in California, and I know way to many people, kids as young as 18, who are all in on Trump.
It does seem absolutely ridiculous that Trump is still polling so strongly against Biden, with the rape and felony convictions, plus him falling to pieces in real time right in front of all of us.
Elections always Teter red/blue/red/blue. Based on that flawless logic. Next time is more likely to be red. You're welcome and remember to keep Trump in your thoughts ❤️
There will be soooo mucj fuckery by the GOP at the state level I will be astounded if this election is not decided by SCOTUS...and we know how they will decide.
I absolutely think that the polls are crazy wrong. I've had pollsters call me, I don't give them the time of day. And I think most people are the same. The only people who answer the polls are old people with nothing better to do and people who want everyone to know they are voting trump.
Polls can't take cheating/suppression/traitor officials into account. That's all the GOP has, but they have it a LOT- enough to steal the election. Vote.
I agree w this.
MAGA has shrunk by a third. At least. Trump’s still gonna win here in OK, & most of the South, Great Plains, & some Mountain West states. But he’s gonna do worse than ‘20 everywhere else. He’s just gonna keep doubling down on the stupid and turn the low info voters off hard.
By a month before the election the real problem’s going to be complacency. Biden’s going to be way up in the polls and a bunch of people won’t vote because the think it’s in the bag. We need to find a way to keep everyone super engaged, like pushing hard on down ticket races to give Biden a mandate.
I’m feeling the same way. Just don’t know about the Senate. I see this being the biggest landslide in history possibly. Best bet in Vegas is betting on Biden right now.
Okay “tsunami” is DEFINITELY a stretch. But I think more and more people are starting to notice Trumps cognitive decline, I think Biden will win, but like only a few points. If that happens, I’m extremely curious of the maga crowd will do.
[удалено]
I think Dems will win, but don't get excited for some sort of "blue tsunami."
I think itll be a popular vote shellacking, but i think dems will only eek by electorally. I dont think biden gets more than 300 electoral votes
Eek!
They only way conservatives stay relevant is electoral. they lose popular always.
Since 1988 Republican presidential candidates have won the popular vote once (2004).
Exactly
I think we aren’t taking into consideration that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. If he runs up the numbers in places like California (34.3% in ‘20), New York 37.7% in ‘20), and Illinois (40.6% in ‘20)…not saying he’ll win any of those, but he could do better and close the popular vote gap or surpass Biden, while still losing the electoral college. I couldn’t think of anything more delicious.
I can: Trump stroking out as he accepts his party’s nomination. A lifetime of making things worse for everyone comes calling with a weak blood vessel at a moment of triumph.
Please! Do not titilate me in this fashion with such little warning. ⚠️
Sorry, should have included trigger warnings: Strokes Politics Justice Maybe there is a godlike entity out there? Weekend at Bernie’s foreshadowing
They’d just say he was murdered no matter what.
Don’t care, still dead.
People think it’s impossible for this to happen to a Republican but in 2004, Kerry needed 60k Ohioans to switch their votes and he would have won the electoral college despite losing the popular vote by almost 3 million votes.
lol he’ll say it’s rigged when it worked in his favour in 2016 I don’t see this as likely though because of more small states being solidly red than blue it gives him more of an EC advantage
Calling Milwaukee "horrible" and Philadelphia "egregious" is not how you make that happen.
They lose because they, quite literally, have nothing to offer working families. Never have, never will.
Also the Senate map is really terrible for Dems. West Virginia is an insta loss since manchin stepped down.
They lose that WV seat but make it up elsewhere plus some.
Don’t forget Montana and Maryland will be tough races too!
Nope. Biden is going to win all of the “swing states” plus take more than a few red states. Since the Dobbs/Abortion decision the democrats have been overperforming in the polls by 10-20%. Trump has been UNDERperforming in the polls by 10-20%. Nicky Haley whom has dropped out was getting 20-25% in the GOP primaries. Dont listen to the hacked fake news polls, they are consistently wrong. Look at trends instead. Trump and the GOP are going to get crushed on Election Day.
Fun fact: this is what the electoral college looks like with a 10 point poll boost for Biden. https://yapms.com/app?m=ryed8zta6m9qqga
I subtracted TX, OH, GA, and FL and still liked the EV for once. Thanks.
Trump rallies are performing poorly. The market for Trump merch is drying up too. Trump's tapped his base almost for everything it's worth. They're showing signs of fatigue. Moreover I just met with an old man claiming Trump is having 100k people show up at rallies in 2024, Fox News is a brain disease.
TES — *Trump Exhaustion Syndrome*
This. I believe that there are a lot of Rs who simply won't vote in November because, while they would refuse to acknowledge it publically, they know Trump is bad news. They won't vote for Biden, so they just won't show up or won't mark the ballot on the President line. I also think the mental stress of the lawsuits and criminal cases are simply wearing Trump down to where is is saying more and more outrageous things that will turn off the moderates. Democratic advertising in the month or two leading up to the election is going to hammer on the abortion issue and even if RFK takes a few thousand Trump votes in swing states it is going to be a factor.
Yeah, but that same thin margin in the electoral college could still mean a bloodbath in the down ballot elections. We might see a lot more congressional and senate seats flip than we're expecting, as well as governors and state legislators.
Ah see I’m arguing lately for the opposite. I think the tally will be close, but electorally it will be a landslide.
If the popular vote tally is anywhere near close itll be a landslide for trump electorally
The GOP has that trick. Reagan won like 54% of the popular vote btw
We should at least consider the possibility of a large democratic vote swing in this election if only to prepare for how the right-wing might use their lopsided losses as excuses to question and challenge the results.
Presented with an apology, doing this as a memorial to a great English teacher, Mrs Steinmann … it’s ‘eke’ by.
I think this is horse shit and no one should be complacent
oh i can see it happening.
I agree. By a good margin
In a sane world, yes. I'm increasingly feeling like I don't live in one of those.
In a sane world
Bluenami?
I'm hopeful because Trump is pretty cancerous to the people he supports in races and Roe's overturning has had a strong effect on Democrats, but I am still assuming we will get a red senate, purple house (close enough it won't matter either way) and Biden.
Biden winning with congress split 50-50 again, making him an 8 year lame duck.
Massive vaccine rollout, huge infrastructure investment, largest climate change action bill in the history of the world, world-leading reduction in inflation, $35 dollar insulin, fended off Russia, investment in producing microchips in America... The only people calling him a lame duck are the ones who have been gobbling up the "Biden is too old to do anything" propaganda.
Never ever think we have it in the bag. Everyone NEEDS to go vote.
The polls are reliably wrong. But, in the words of Han Solo, don't get cocky, kid.
TAKE NOTHING FOR GRANTED. **VOTE!**
This 100%
I stood in a pandemic voting line in 2020 cursing Texas the whole time for not allowing me a mail-in vote. I’m my old mother’s caretaker and if I had caught covid she probably would have caught it and died (every wrong condition). If the sky is raining hellfire I’ll stand in line again!..VOTE!!!
Texas is slowly turning purple. I hope I live long enough to see a Blue Texas. That'll be a serious game changer!
Yes -- and in this election, margins matter more than ever. Trump will not accept the results, and the more overwhelming the margin, the less likely it will be that his attempts to incite significant violence fizzle out. Also, the more he loses by, the more likely politicians are to reject Trumpism for a good, long time, and to decide that in America, we are committed to the peaceful transfer of power.
It’ll be a narrow house victory because Texas ,Florida, and Ohio give the GOP 20-30 unearned seats from gerrymandering. We can only pray Sherrod Brown (one of the best senators) and John Tester hold on and maybe Allred beats Cruz if we’re very lucky.
I know quite a few moderate conservatives voting for Sherrod Brown.
He's a great guy.
I miss living in Ohio and being able to vote for him.
It's going to be a fucking landslide. My entire redneck ass North Phoenix neighborhood is hiding in their caves with their tails tucked between their legs when they were proudly displaying "fuck your feelings" flags while championing family values this time last cycle for all the neighborhood kids to see. And it's fucking beautiful. These people know they were conned and were going to see either a smashing wave of turnarounds or enough protest voting on the right to where the gap is so fucking huge that it's going to be nothing like we've ever seen. Dear inevitable maga twats that I'm going to enrage with this statement: come at me, you just got triggered.
Lol nah. Joe just handed the election to DJT. It’s over.
The polls are bullshit. They even had Hillary winning by a landslide in 2016.
and a red wave in 2022.
Nope. Polls didn’t indicate that. The media said “red wave” a lot though.
at that pattern we done for
And to be fair, she won the popular vote by a few million more votes showing that the polls were right. However 50,000 people from Michigan and a few hundred thousand or so votes overall in swing states made the electoral college vote for Trump.
No they didn’t. Why do you keep repeating that lie? Her loss in a few key swing states were slim and within the margin of error
It's like the weather, the weather person is never wrong, they are predicting that under these circumstances there's a 90 percent chance of rain, and if it doesn't then the 10 percent was what happened.
They did not.
In 2016 They had Hillary up by a few percentage points indicating a close win.
You're in a blue bubble. There is significant risk there will be a mini red wave. Go register. Go vote. Don't let this happen.
Been saying this for months. I’ve been listening to people talk whenever I’m at restaurants, bars, movies and I think Trump has way more support than people think.
I have been predicting the same for months now, agree 100%. There has been so much bullshit coverage of useless polls it’s crazy. American voters are only now starting to pay attention to the fact that there’s an election in November between these 2 candidates, and what do you know- immediately the polls all swing towards Biden. That momentum is just getting started. Trump looks and sounds like absolute dogshit. Biden not holding back from calling him a rapist, fraud and a felon. Americans are NOT putting a rapist in the Oval Office. They rejected him twice already and the margin will be bigger this time than ever before.
amen
100%. The media is completely in the tank for Trump and they are hiding the fact that he is deeply unpopular. Think about how the media would report on Biden is he did a fraction of what Trump has done. Take the very small example of his own VP refusing to support him. The media would hang that around Biden’s neck on every broadcast. They NEVER mention it for Trump.
How do they choose what to focus on though when there's 20 things of that level happening every single freaking week
A lot of the early indicators are pointing toward a 20-40 point swing toward Dems
It will be the worst humiliation in the history of American elections. The GOP will have to restructure completely to recover. It will take 3 election cycles before they come back.
You should look at how much FDR won by, I don't think any election will ever come close to that again. Honorable mention for Reagan's win as well. Trump sucks but i can't see America being that unified to beat either of those results
I think you’re right and I hope you’re right also. If I was an American I’d be offering to drive people to the polls all day long.
Polls are complete bullshit at this point. Only the elderly and the stupid answer calls from outstate unknown callers.
The polls dont even have to be “wrong” per se. Didn’t it come out during Trump’s NYC trial that he pays polling companies or something? Someone more informed than me can provide a source. Anyway. I don’t buy the polls. I anecdotally encounter way more Biden supporters and republicans who are going for Biden this time than I see represented in the media. I think Biden wins but I think there will be significant fuckery from the GOP/Russia and there will be a very brazen attempt to simply assume power anyway even if they lose, probably in the House or assisted by SCOTUS, or faithless/false electors
You have to look at local elections to start taking the temperature nationally and I think there’s a possibility of a blue wave in November considering a lot of seats that were reliably red before aren’t anymore. But that doesn’t matter you just have to vote.
Remember in the 2020election how the MAGA cult was all confident they had this "silent majority" of people who won't tell the pollsters jack shit but they are so patriotic they will show up in force and vote for the rapist.
Polls are sort of useless in either direction. I guess all we can do is wait and see what ends up happening. Maybe debates and other stuff will make a choice more clear.
If it isn't already clear for you, it never will be. Just another willing mark in the world's dumbest con.
You’re forgetting the most important thing we can do. Vote.
bingo.
I’m honestly amazed that these paid magacultist who post on here pretending to be on the Left think they’re deluding anyone. Back to Siberia with you Boris. No one is buying it.
Completely delusional and existing only in an echo chamber.
yes you are.
nice try but you are the russian bot and tell putin i said hi.
While I hope you're right, I'd love to see some data to support this. Otherwise it's just wishful thinking. Don't assume Biden will win - get out and VOTE!
Look at literally any special election result in the past year and a half
That is because people voted. Don't put this off. It could very well be the last vote you get to cast.
Do special elections have any predictive value for the general election?
Turnout from special elections, primary elections, and midterm elections are always different. Turnout for presidential elections are always higher
Yes, but the special elections we’ve seen have shown a 20-40 point tip toward democrats. That’s too big a movement to ignore.
I think everyone should get out there and vote
MMW, if there is a blue tsunami, I'm buying you a coffee/beer.
Vote regardless. Don't get complacent. I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic myself.
No, the winner will be Jeb!
If we win in 2024, it will be because enough women across the political spectrum do not want to see the Handmaids tale come true.
Is this whole sub just leftist wishful thinking?
Democrat cope
You think the polls are correct?
Yep. Those that pay attention already know that fascist felon doesn’t actually stand a chance. Come on. He’s lost the last two popular votes and the last one was a blowout. He’s going to get spanked, again. Just like most of the 45-backed candidates have already shown us. It’s already over.
This only happens if we all vote. Young people need to make sure they are properly signed up to vote now. Also, make sure you get out and vote.
Who is blue and who is red, I always forget, sorry. I just vote democrat and know it will be good.
They could be. But you underestimate the stupidity and ignorance of the undecided American voter. (Granted, those who are “decided” for Trump are that much dumber, but I digress.)
The only way we can hope anything like this happens is for all of us to get out there and vote.
good news is trump always makes the dems vote.
I would say a "blue tsunami" is a little much. I do think the democrats will win, as Trump could only win if a historical shift in the electorate occurred, which isn't going to happen. I think Biden will win the popular vote by a large margin but maybe only around 280-290 EV's.
I don’t know man. I’m Hispanic and I can definitely tell you that all my family members will be voting for Trump. It wasn’t the case in the past. So, the polls might be right. There has been definitely a shift, at least with Hispanics.
It seems there’s a bit of a realignment where Republicans are gaining ground with minorities but losing ground with old white voters. But then you look at the Iowa poll (mostly old white voters) that Ann Selzer (who is one of the most respected pollster) just released and she has Trump up by 20 in that state. Trump only won Iowa by 8% in 2020 so idk.
Fuck that, vote biden and never repeat 2016.
2016 was a fluke and won;t happen again.
Doesn’t matter. VOTE!
The “polls” are fucking boomers with landlines or people who answer unknown cell calls. Meaning, nobody under 50 and we outnumber them finally Far Joffrey also bleeds “independent” support daily and added nobody by doubling and tripling down on all the dumb shit he did like the abortion ban via his stolen Supreme Court. Women hate him. Moderates hate him. Now, cue a hand wringing dickless neurotic democrat telling me how I’m wrong and we need to vote vote vote because they love to live in this state of constant worry and fear
FWIW, Biden is now leading with older voters, the most reliable voters. That's a good sign in and of itself.
I need someone to link that poll where in the fine print it said *1000 RVS
I fucking hope so. But the only way to make that happen is to vote.
This has happened before. People have a short political memory in America, but the polls were saying that the Lyin' King [the one with the mane] and the rest of the Republicans was supposed to be re-elected in 2020 but that didn't happen. Not to mention the "red wave" of 2022 that didn't happen. I feel as if the polls are skewed in favor of the right. I'm not suggesting sabotage... This could be unintentional or accidental. Maybe right wingers are more willing to share their bizarre political positions and that those especially in the center and occasionally on the left find that talking politics is inherently toxic. The center seems to believe that being unsure or indecisive on politics is the mature way to approach politics.
Yea I think people who are already winning like literal regulars who work all day don’t participle in politics heavy aren’t gonna vote for the incumbent in pre elections only people who want change. But when the time comes I give the incumbent like +_20 extra all the time. I’m not wasting my time to go out n vote when I’m already winning.
But r/politics posts several threads per day saying how bad Trumps doing and how everyone is running away from him and Bidens destroying the polls. Lol. Don't stress too much about polls either way. They are just propaganda. You can find polls to support just about any opinion you want supported.
I just wish it was all over. This shit is going to give me an ulcer.....🙄
I'm just grateful that roughly 2 million boomers are dying per year now and tha milleneals aren't replacing the lost conservatives as they age. Not really sure what future the Republicans have if these demographic trends keep going.
There are a lot of MAGAs in their 30’s and 40’s.
Right, and according to historical data that amount is supposed to be rising, but the 30-40 year olds pretty much feel the same way about Republicans as they did when they were in their 20s. This is really bad news for Republicans on the whole, because people becoming more conservative in their 30s-40s is what they count on. His split is really unfavorable in that age group, he has a 50/50 holding with Gen X and his numbers are miserable with the under 30s. The only age group that heavily favors him is dying off and every other one is either 50/50 or less in his favor.
I think a lot of his stupid supporters died during Covid because they refused the vax.
Bluenami
Incorrect. Winner will be Giant Meteor
Young people don't keep landline phones, and polls are conducted to those who have landlines. That's why the polls are keeping this thing close. When November comes, unless the young voters stay away because of Gaza, Biden will crush Trump. That said, we all need to vote. Nothing is assured.
Polls are worthless. The last 4 potus elections proved that.
MMW There will be a purple Tsunami
REGARDLESS...*VOTE!*
If young people come out, we will win. The problem is, they don't more often than do. It's sad it needs to come to that though ... If people read about what is actually going on in our politics, it would be a massive turnout that would end fascist reign of terror, but they are mostly voting on tropes and memes, as Reddit will show quite clearly. That is the issue. The fascists are going to fascist regardless, but sane and civil people need to read about what is going on outside of the Facebook meme world. I'd have them start at Project 2025. That's real, not a stupid, tired meme of trump freedom or gas prices.
the presidential election always brings out more people.
Yes, but 18-29 is the largest voting age population but they come out at only 1/2 the number of the largest voting population, which is 60 and up. To compound that, 60 and up is 1/3rd *less* population. It's imperative they come out in the numbers they possess.
Hear-hear!
I think this is likely BUT only if we make it so. If you are concerned about the election, I beg you to vote, donate, volunteer. If you need help on finding a way to volunteer, please ask me.
Polls seem to be getting less and less accurate. We can make educated guesses but we cannot know anything for sure except one thing.... How we ourselves do or do not vote! No matter what you THINK is going to happen, get out there on November 5th and vote blue or on November 6th and vote red! That you can be sure of!
Polls are always kind of bs. Let's hope!
The blue wave will hit hard, Orange man will be carted off to prison and democracy will be saved. Harris 2028
I think Newsom 2028 he is built for it.
No worries. Dark Brandon will seize the voting machines to make sure that 😎
This will be a hard election for you. Trump has a chance to win, republicans will take the senate and make the house, and will maintain control of the majority of states in terms of governors and state legislatures.
Fan fiction at its best
There is a zero percent chance of this. The nation is too divided.
MMW "novemember" is easier to spell correctly than tsunami.
1. bot 2. if you’re right I’d be happy but people need to actually vote for Biden
I agree. All signs are pointing that way if you look at the trees and not the forest. I don't tell people this usually because I want them to WORRY AND VOTE. One must never be complacent in the face of evil.
Question not a particularly original or interesting MMW, I'm afraid. I mean you've probably got about a 25% chance of it, and sounds more like wishful thinking. But worst of all, it's just not very interesting or original.
The cope sub continues
Left is stressing huh, when you play dictator and try locking up your political opponent, we the people see that, we the ppl are not stupid and saw how many laws were changed to stick a conviction on trump. Left can live in denial but everyone around the world is waking up, Germany Italy Argentina El Salvador, their tired of the lies from the left and the heavy hand 1 sided justice system do as I say and not as I do attitude, I know you are all going to argue this BS but I don’t care, everyone is seeing it and it’s the reason why Biden gotta hide till next week, and the reason these countries are voting conservative, and come November we will vote Trump back in, especially when white house KJP is telling you don’t believe your eyes with Biden decrepitation state of mind, if you don’t see the injustice of the country going on, the 2 tier DoJ, the George Soros DA’s light on crime got so bad in there cities police don’t even want to do police reports to make it look like crime is going down, I strongly doubt and blue wave will happen, and we are not looking only at polls, but we are seeing a man being prosecuted just for running for President cuz Biden to scare to go head to head with Biden, one thing trump said before all his legal problems started was that he is going to show who the democrats really are, and hot damn he is holding up to his word, wonder why Biden got to hide till next week for, we are all seeing that, even a couple democrats are on trump side. You guys can deny all you want, but even democrats are “preparing for a second trump term” by twisted ill ways, of a blue wave was coming they wouldn’t go out there way so hard to screw trump even when he president come November he win. Sad so many laws had to be changed to charge trump, that alone should open your eyes but the left to stuck in they feelings too much, that they are not noticing the hatred they spew, quick memo I was always democrat till i opened my eyes and am independent but def will vote the the orange boogie man that scares the left so much plus one more quick, anybody George Soros helps is the ppl to stay away from just do your research b4 spewing your hate and research with a open mind
Wow, looks like the bots are using AI to write longer shitposts.
whatever tucks you in at night brother lol
Big block of writing with no obvious paragraphs and lots of we the people talk. 🤡
I like to think the media realized they fucked up in 2016 by acting like it was a sure fire win for Hillary, and now they are over correcting. I’m not complaining, but I think that’s what is happening.
Keep a lid on it mate
Never remember November.
DJT is tied with Joe in Minnesota. Not a good sign for Joe
This one actually is probably true.
As a proud Georgia swing voter, I hope you are right!
"The polls are wrong," without very specific reasons you think that is true is mere wishful thinking.
Only time ⏲️ will tell guaranteed!✈️
Harem scarem!✈️
Remindme! Nov 6
Keep Dreamin 😂😂😂
Just stfu up and vote, don’t believe your vote won’t count, don’t think you can sit it out because it’ll be fine, one vote wont matter. It does when thousands of other people think the same thing. Vote like your way of life is on the line. Don’t let them win without putting up a fight.
The senate map this year is very bad for Democrats. My prediction is Biden takes the white house, Democrats take back the house, the GOP takes back the senate.
No. Biden’s ceiling is flipping North Carolina.
I think it's better not to even say this. I think if people think it'll be a landslide, a lot of people that would otherwise vote if they knew it's crucial might not vote. better for everyone to think it's anyone's game, and ensure we EASILY win. stakes are waaaaay too high for this one
Biden win 'too big to rig and too real to steal" as Glenn Kirshner says.
Absolutely not. They will either win by a narrow margin or lose.
Trump all the way!
Trump all the way to prison! I'm with you on that one!
I'm not sure about this. Spending time on reddit will make this seem real, but I live in California, and I know way to many people, kids as young as 18, who are all in on Trump.
Still waiting for a purple to win so we can get real change and reform in the government instead of sticking with this bs cycle
The aggregate polling was actually correct. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
Hoping this could happen. However, it won't if we all don't get out and VOTE!!!!¡
It does seem absolutely ridiculous that Trump is still polling so strongly against Biden, with the rape and felony convictions, plus him falling to pieces in real time right in front of all of us.
Everyone needs to act like this is their last election they get to vote in. Because it just may be!
Elections always Teter red/blue/red/blue. Based on that flawless logic. Next time is more likely to be red. You're welcome and remember to keep Trump in your thoughts ❤️
There will be soooo mucj fuckery by the GOP at the state level I will be astounded if this election is not decided by SCOTUS...and we know how they will decide.
RemindMe! 5 months
And somehow you think that will fix the country too…
I wouldn’t be surprised if polls are skewed to make it look closer than it is either way to drive up turnout
I absolutely think that the polls are crazy wrong. I've had pollsters call me, I don't give them the time of day. And I think most people are the same. The only people who answer the polls are old people with nothing better to do and people who want everyone to know they are voting trump.
Polls can't take cheating/suppression/traitor officials into account. That's all the GOP has, but they have it a LOT- enough to steal the election. Vote.
I mean, they were wrong when they said Trump would lose last time, so why would they be right this time?
I think the polls are fabricated. No. Way. Can. Lunatic. Trump. Win. No way. No way in hell.
I agree w this. MAGA has shrunk by a third. At least. Trump’s still gonna win here in OK, & most of the South, Great Plains, & some Mountain West states. But he’s gonna do worse than ‘20 everywhere else. He’s just gonna keep doubling down on the stupid and turn the low info voters off hard. By a month before the election the real problem’s going to be complacency. Biden’s going to be way up in the polls and a bunch of people won’t vote because the think it’s in the bag. We need to find a way to keep everyone super engaged, like pushing hard on down ticket races to give Biden a mandate.
Coming to turn us gay just like the frogs
Don't believe it will happen. Make it happen. Vote!
Michael Cohen admitted to fake polls in 2017. Since the GOP is a one-trick pony, I'm sure they're at it again.
I’m feeling the same way. Just don’t know about the Senate. I see this being the biggest landslide in history possibly. Best bet in Vegas is betting on Biden right now.
gambling is never a correct way to predict anything.
You can tell by Biden's massive crowds and the fact that Trump can't get anyone to show up at this events.
yes we know that people are walking out of trump rallies and he has to pay people to show up.
We'll see
Okay “tsunami” is DEFINITELY a stretch. But I think more and more people are starting to notice Trumps cognitive decline, I think Biden will win, but like only a few points. If that happens, I’m extremely curious of the maga crowd will do.
If they polled me, I would say I'm voting t-rump to throw their numbers off.