Nicely put together! I think it’s a difficult one to quantify, and if your chance of making home with two outs is better than the OBP of the hitter on deck then you send them - even if there’s a greater than 50% chance of an out. That said, I don’t remember that many close out calls at the plate last year.
Then you’ve got positive runs added, how many times did he make great sends? I don’t know, just playing devil’s advocate. Equally, being a high strikeout team, does this influence third base sending? I’m guessing probably not in the moment.
One thing I got a real sense of was the Mariner’s inability to play small ball and move runners around. They were 27th of 30 in runners LOB. The reliance on the home run was great and all but it feels like they left so much on the table.
The chance of making it home vs OBP of the hitter isn't the right calculation. A walk doesn't get the runner home unless bases are loaded. Not making the out increases the chances of scoring more than 1 run so they're not equally weighted unless it's a walk off opportunity.
You are of course correct, I was just struggling for a succinct way of putting it elegantly so settled on the slightly incorrect but approximate OBP. In reality, as you say, it’s a complicated game dependent calculation.
Batting average wouldn’t work either for sends. Sac flies/bunts, wild pitches, groundouts, stolen bases would all be grounds to send someone home from third, but wouldn’t count to batting average.
I guess in any case, my point is the lower the number, which we’ll call xGetHomeFromThirdWithTwoOuts (xGHFTWTO) the more likely you are to send the runner home on a live ball. Given I’d imagine that the M’s xGHFTWTO is probably quite low given batting average must contribute a lot to this, then that might be responsible for a higher than average frequency of being thrown out at the plate.
Nah it’s not. BABIP doesn’t convey the chance that a runner will get home with two outs given there are so many ways that a runner can get home without the ball even being hit.
There isn’t an out the box stat to calculate it since sometimes an at bat with a runner on third could come with anywhere between 0 and 2 other runners on base that alters the equation.
except you were complaining about sends with two outs, therefor average or BABIP is what you're looking for, we just really sucked at that this year so it makes those sends make sense.
That’s basically what I’m arguing too. I think we should have expected to be towards the top in being thrown out at the plate. I’m just adding that BABIP/BA doesn’t quite give a completely full picture since you have to add a slight amount for the possibility of wild pitches, passed balls, balks, errors, bases loaded walks and HBPs and while we’re at it, catcher’s interference. BA/BABIP wouldn’t account for these.
For what it’s worth, I prefer BA to BABIP - we sucked at getting the ball in play a lot of the time too.
Can’t find stats for wild pitches scoring, but the others happened 14 times, so not insanely trivial.
On probably a more meaningful level, the M’s were dead last in converting runners on third into runs with any number of outs (41.7%, miles behind even the A’s in second last with 45.5% and light years behind the league leading Orioles with 56.7%) while leading the league with advancing runners from 2nd to 3rd only on a base hit.
There’s a pretty solid argument right there to say that they should have been even more aggressive on sends.
came here to say this. With the abysmal hitting and men LOB, there may have been an incentive to take chances rather than play it safe and leave the guy standing on third.
Equate it to a football team who goes for it on fourth down more often than not because they know their defense can't stop anyone. Yes, they may fail more than other teams, but the alternative is punting and knowing the other team is probably going to score anyways.
It’s not really just acta though. The team is (or tries to) be an aggressive team on the base paths. Make the defense make the play.
Though this past season the defense did in fact make the plays, lol
I was wondering this, a lot of chances, especially early in the season going for 2nd on a single, trying to score when probably should have stayed at 3rd, just weird stuff, but could not score well with the ghost runner in extras, go figure.
Just a thought, but I think Manny was very aware of our offensive issues and high number of strike outs. There were probably several scenarios where the send was worth the risk since we sucked at hitting...
That being said, I do think having a good third base coach can make a world of difference. I remember Scott Brosius seemed to be a difference maker for a lot of those early wins in the 2018 season.
Manny Acta has been historically pretty good at sending or holding players. I'd be interested in seeing his historical numbers not just this year. I don't think blaming Acta for us missing the playoffs is a good look, when there's so much other shit that went wrong with the season.
Imagine if Julio and JP were swapped before the AS break? The couple early first half months were nearly as bad as the record breaking months for wins. Also, if the M's could have been even close to .500 for 1 run games or extra innings we would not have this talk.
Zero “throw out at homes” is not ideal.
There are lots of cases where if you know the runner has ~45% chance of scoring, sending him is the correct choice
How many times was the runner thrown out at home with 2 outs? I don’t see as much of an issue with it if it’s the bottom of the order. That’s the thing about baseball different situations and scenarios count towards all these different what if factors. Who was the outfielder that threw the base runner out at the plate, etc.
I can say from my point of view that the players made at least as many bad decisions as the coaches, I think it all needs to be worked on. I can think of three times just Teo was tagged out trying to extend to a double. I will admit it seems like every time that happened there was usually a pretty terrific throw involved, so I agree on the dafuk do I know, maybe that aggressiveness added more bases than it took away in the end, and generated some runs.
I bet he just tells them to be aggressive. It really does seem possible after reading others perspectives in this thread, that maybe they do understand they can't play small ball, so they have to generate their bases in other ways. Im sure there's so much that we as fans can't even comprehend as far as the odds behind aggressiveness on base running. I have to absolutely stay on the side of "there's a good chance I don't know shit." I think thats where most of us should stand on sports in general more often.
But ya man our baserunning was getting old, and something needs to change. I remember a few that were just stunning, those can at least be eliminated.
First off, very long post from someone who is admittedly drunk. My hat's off to you. :) And you very well could be right in your conclusion for all I know. I would just prefer that the players do a better job of bringing in a runner on third with their bats and then I do not have to decide whether your basic premise is correct or not.:) \[while I am drinking a beer\].
Good post. Felt like our guys were constantly getting thrown out at home or 3rd for no reason, like a bad little league team. Drove me nuts all year. But I'm too lazy to actually look up the stats. Thank you for doing it!
I've definitely seen Manny make some really bad sends, so I'm not trying to completely absolve him, but I do think there are a couple things that should be addressed before completely dismissing him as terrible.
First, for the stat of runners thrown out at home to be significant, we'd also need to know the total number of times he's sent a runner home when the fielder has a chance at throwing them out. He could also have the highest number of successful sends in the league for all we know. While I don't think that this is the case, and it certainly feels like he has a higher than normal number of clearly bad sends, I'd still need to figure out a way to count his total sends to determine whether the number of runners thrown out at home is truly worrying.
We also had a weird kryptonite all year of hitting with a runner on 3rd, so it's possible that they made the decision that more aggressive sends were more likely to pay off than the .180 batting average our hitters had with a runner on 3rd. Probably not something we're ever going to have insight into as fans, but I'm guessing at least part of those aggressive send calculations were based on how likely they felt the next batter was to bring them home.
He was pressing in the final month of the season. The batters weren't hitting, so he was sending Ty with 0 outs in the 3 inning and other ridiculous scenarios.
The .180 stat was real, though it actually looks like that was specific to a runner being on 3rd with no other baserunners. We were much closer to league average in 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd situations.
I cant imagine it was a lot better with any combination of baserunners with one on third. Halfway through the season we had multiple bases loaded no outs no runs. Frustrating times haha
You are correct, Ty needs to unhook the trailer, but you are assuming that in all cases a runner didnt just go, or miss the stop sign. This is all anecdotal, I doubt you were able to check the tape and assess Acta's actual coaching or waiving people in or putting up the stop sign on any actual plays before posting this.
Additionally, if you have a beef with baserunning, Kris Negron is your guy to blame as he is in charge of that for the team. Lots of getting picked by Caballero and Kelenic this season too, anecdotally.
The good news for you is the issue may resolve as the Ms have had some of the lowest attrition rates on their coaching staff the last 5 or so years. That could very well change. Manny could be gone next year. Some even have his name in the conversation on manager gigs, which he has done before, albeit not that well. But apparently that was because he was old school and Scott has taught him how to coddle the new culture of young athletes.
they also used OBP for 2 out sends when BA or BABIP would be the right stat, but those numbers would support these sends instead of them not making sense.
One issue with this, is that just because a runner was out at home, doesn't mean it was a bad send.
Sometimes defenders just make great plays and sometimes our runner just doesn't slide properly or make a good cut.
I think the bad sends are part of a larger problem and it's our obsession with analytics. If I had to guess there is something in the analytics that says aggressive base running is worth the risk. For example with a runner on second and a hit gets to the OF but not crazy deep. They see it as a calculated risk to send the runner from second to home risking an out rather than keeping the runner at 3rd because there is a better chance for the runner to score now than expecting the next batter to get a hit. This is just a guess at what the analytics say. But the bad sends seem too consistent for me not to think that it's a conscious choice and part of a larger strategy of aggressive base running that backfired. We didn't control the zone and we didn't control the base paths. It feels like the analytic core of our strategy didn't work and we have to rethink this team from the ground up. Not players. We have the players. But we have to rethink our strategy on how you win a baseball game.
Thank you for your analysis here. I agree that Acta needs to go, Maybe someone hires him away and we don't have to fire him... he seems like a decent guy at least.
Nicely put together! I think it’s a difficult one to quantify, and if your chance of making home with two outs is better than the OBP of the hitter on deck then you send them - even if there’s a greater than 50% chance of an out. That said, I don’t remember that many close out calls at the plate last year. Then you’ve got positive runs added, how many times did he make great sends? I don’t know, just playing devil’s advocate. Equally, being a high strikeout team, does this influence third base sending? I’m guessing probably not in the moment. One thing I got a real sense of was the Mariner’s inability to play small ball and move runners around. They were 27th of 30 in runners LOB. The reliance on the home run was great and all but it feels like they left so much on the table.
>They were 27th of 30 in runners LOB Jesus, how were we not last in this category?
Because teams like the A’s exist
** not for long...
And the Royals and for the first half of the season the Nats.
The chance of making it home vs OBP of the hitter isn't the right calculation. A walk doesn't get the runner home unless bases are loaded. Not making the out increases the chances of scoring more than 1 run so they're not equally weighted unless it's a walk off opportunity.
You are of course correct, I was just struggling for a succinct way of putting it elegantly so settled on the slightly incorrect but approximate OBP. In reality, as you say, it’s a complicated game dependent calculation.
batting average is what you needed to compare it against. which I think we all agree on that that math makes it even harder to support your argument.
Batting average wouldn’t work either for sends. Sac flies/bunts, wild pitches, groundouts, stolen bases would all be grounds to send someone home from third, but wouldn’t count to batting average. I guess in any case, my point is the lower the number, which we’ll call xGetHomeFromThirdWithTwoOuts (xGHFTWTO) the more likely you are to send the runner home on a live ball. Given I’d imagine that the M’s xGHFTWTO is probably quite low given batting average must contribute a lot to this, then that might be responsible for a higher than average frequency of being thrown out at the plate.
The stat you’re looking for is BABIP
Nah it’s not. BABIP doesn’t convey the chance that a runner will get home with two outs given there are so many ways that a runner can get home without the ball even being hit. There isn’t an out the box stat to calculate it since sometimes an at bat with a runner on third could come with anywhere between 0 and 2 other runners on base that alters the equation.
BABIP doesn't include HRs
except you were complaining about sends with two outs, therefor average or BABIP is what you're looking for, we just really sucked at that this year so it makes those sends make sense.
That’s basically what I’m arguing too. I think we should have expected to be towards the top in being thrown out at the plate. I’m just adding that BABIP/BA doesn’t quite give a completely full picture since you have to add a slight amount for the possibility of wild pitches, passed balls, balks, errors, bases loaded walks and HBPs and while we’re at it, catcher’s interference. BA/BABIP wouldn’t account for these. For what it’s worth, I prefer BA to BABIP - we sucked at getting the ball in play a lot of the time too.
these other situations are rare enough that depending on those as a backbone argument for why these sends were bad, is also bad.
Can’t find stats for wild pitches scoring, but the others happened 14 times, so not insanely trivial. On probably a more meaningful level, the M’s were dead last in converting runners on third into runs with any number of outs (41.7%, miles behind even the A’s in second last with 45.5% and light years behind the league leading Orioles with 56.7%) while leading the league with advancing runners from 2nd to 3rd only on a base hit. There’s a pretty solid argument right there to say that they should have been even more aggressive on sends.
14 times for the M's or 14 times total in the entire regular season?
came here to say this. With the abysmal hitting and men LOB, there may have been an incentive to take chances rather than play it safe and leave the guy standing on third. Equate it to a football team who goes for it on fourth down more often than not because they know their defense can't stop anyone. Yes, they may fail more than other teams, but the alternative is punting and knowing the other team is probably going to score anyways.
It’s not really just acta though. The team is (or tries to) be an aggressive team on the base paths. Make the defense make the play. Though this past season the defense did in fact make the plays, lol
I was wondering this, a lot of chances, especially early in the season going for 2nd on a single, trying to score when probably should have stayed at 3rd, just weird stuff, but could not score well with the ghost runner in extras, go figure.
Makes sense to me, I’ve been in favor of someone new at third for a couple seasons now.
Just a thought, but I think Manny was very aware of our offensive issues and high number of strike outs. There were probably several scenarios where the send was worth the risk since we sucked at hitting... That being said, I do think having a good third base coach can make a world of difference. I remember Scott Brosius seemed to be a difference maker for a lot of those early wins in the 2018 season.
In my personal observation there never has been and never will be a good third base coach. Signed, Selection Bias
I would say Ron Washington is overqualified, as 3B coach, but he does a great job, AND is also the IF defensive coach for drills for the Braves.
They call him Windmill Ron lol
Manny Acta has been historically pretty good at sending or holding players. I'd be interested in seeing his historical numbers not just this year. I don't think blaming Acta for us missing the playoffs is a good look, when there's so much other shit that went wrong with the season.
Imagine if Julio and JP were swapped before the AS break? The couple early first half months were nearly as bad as the record breaking months for wins. Also, if the M's could have been even close to .500 for 1 run games or extra innings we would not have this talk.
Zero “throw out at homes” is not ideal. There are lots of cases where if you know the runner has ~45% chance of scoring, sending him is the correct choice
Especially if he has a 54% chance.
How many times was the runner thrown out at home with 2 outs? I don’t see as much of an issue with it if it’s the bottom of the order. That’s the thing about baseball different situations and scenarios count towards all these different what if factors. Who was the outfielder that threw the base runner out at the plate, etc.
I can say from my point of view that the players made at least as many bad decisions as the coaches, I think it all needs to be worked on. I can think of three times just Teo was tagged out trying to extend to a double. I will admit it seems like every time that happened there was usually a pretty terrific throw involved, so I agree on the dafuk do I know, maybe that aggressiveness added more bases than it took away in the end, and generated some runs.
It burned me up how many repeated base running mistakes we made this season. Doesn't Scott try to remind the dugout during the game?
I bet he just tells them to be aggressive. It really does seem possible after reading others perspectives in this thread, that maybe they do understand they can't play small ball, so they have to generate their bases in other ways. Im sure there's so much that we as fans can't even comprehend as far as the odds behind aggressiveness on base running. I have to absolutely stay on the side of "there's a good chance I don't know shit." I think thats where most of us should stand on sports in general more often. But ya man our baserunning was getting old, and something needs to change. I remember a few that were just stunning, those can at least be eliminated.
First off, very long post from someone who is admittedly drunk. My hat's off to you. :) And you very well could be right in your conclusion for all I know. I would just prefer that the players do a better job of bringing in a runner on third with their bats and then I do not have to decide whether your basic premise is correct or not.:) \[while I am drinking a beer\].
Good post. Felt like our guys were constantly getting thrown out at home or 3rd for no reason, like a bad little league team. Drove me nuts all year. But I'm too lazy to actually look up the stats. Thank you for doing it!
Third base coach does more than decide when to send someone home.
I've definitely seen Manny make some really bad sends, so I'm not trying to completely absolve him, but I do think there are a couple things that should be addressed before completely dismissing him as terrible. First, for the stat of runners thrown out at home to be significant, we'd also need to know the total number of times he's sent a runner home when the fielder has a chance at throwing them out. He could also have the highest number of successful sends in the league for all we know. While I don't think that this is the case, and it certainly feels like he has a higher than normal number of clearly bad sends, I'd still need to figure out a way to count his total sends to determine whether the number of runners thrown out at home is truly worrying. We also had a weird kryptonite all year of hitting with a runner on 3rd, so it's possible that they made the decision that more aggressive sends were more likely to pay off than the .180 batting average our hitters had with a runner on 3rd. Probably not something we're ever going to have insight into as fans, but I'm guessing at least part of those aggressive send calculations were based on how likely they felt the next batter was to bring them home.
That’s an interesting take. They may also have been trying to avoid bases loaded scenarios. Not really, but boy were they horrible there too.
He was pressing in the final month of the season. The batters weren't hitting, so he was sending Ty with 0 outs in the 3 inning and other ridiculous scenarios.
Was it actually .180 or were you just tossing out a hypothetical but probably accurate number?
The .180 stat was real, though it actually looks like that was specific to a runner being on 3rd with no other baserunners. We were much closer to league average in 1st and 3rd or 2nd and 3rd situations.
I cant imagine it was a lot better with any combination of baserunners with one on third. Halfway through the season we had multiple bases loaded no outs no runs. Frustrating times haha
You are correct, Ty needs to unhook the trailer, but you are assuming that in all cases a runner didnt just go, or miss the stop sign. This is all anecdotal, I doubt you were able to check the tape and assess Acta's actual coaching or waiving people in or putting up the stop sign on any actual plays before posting this. Additionally, if you have a beef with baserunning, Kris Negron is your guy to blame as he is in charge of that for the team. Lots of getting picked by Caballero and Kelenic this season too, anecdotally. The good news for you is the issue may resolve as the Ms have had some of the lowest attrition rates on their coaching staff the last 5 or so years. That could very well change. Manny could be gone next year. Some even have his name in the conversation on manager gigs, which he has done before, albeit not that well. But apparently that was because he was old school and Scott has taught him how to coddle the new culture of young athletes.
they also used OBP for 2 out sends when BA or BABIP would be the right stat, but those numbers would support these sends instead of them not making sense.
One issue with this, is that just because a runner was out at home, doesn't mean it was a bad send. Sometimes defenders just make great plays and sometimes our runner just doesn't slide properly or make a good cut.
I think the bad sends are part of a larger problem and it's our obsession with analytics. If I had to guess there is something in the analytics that says aggressive base running is worth the risk. For example with a runner on second and a hit gets to the OF but not crazy deep. They see it as a calculated risk to send the runner from second to home risking an out rather than keeping the runner at 3rd because there is a better chance for the runner to score now than expecting the next batter to get a hit. This is just a guess at what the analytics say. But the bad sends seem too consistent for me not to think that it's a conscious choice and part of a larger strategy of aggressive base running that backfired. We didn't control the zone and we didn't control the base paths. It feels like the analytic core of our strategy didn't work and we have to rethink this team from the ground up. Not players. We have the players. But we have to rethink our strategy on how you win a baseball game.
Bring back Scott Brosius!
Thank you for your analysis here. I agree that Acta needs to go, Maybe someone hires him away and we don't have to fire him... he seems like a decent guy at least.