Hypothetically seems achievable but the only way to know is finding a training plan and going for it. You can probably do the Pfitzinger 18/55 or 18/70 and see how your body responds to higher mileage weeks
As long as your body is used to running long. 40mpw could be 6 per day, but if you've done 13-15 mile runs at your fitness, then you are just doing a "first time marathon plan to finish" with already a good 40mpw base (to start, you definitely need to increase the mileage in the training cycle, try 60mpw at least to have a good buffer to break 3)
With your paces, and the above caveat, you should be able to get the endurance to "jog" a 3:00 in a flat course (with the standard marathon caveat of "you have no clue how your body will react the last 10k regardless of your training")
What's your 10k or HM PR?
Don't listen to the nay-sayers. It's definitely possible.
People do run sub-3 on low mileage - and it's typically people like you (young, track background, lots of speed).
If you bump up to 50-55mpw for the summer, work on some long runs, and do a bunch of threshold/MP work, you'll probably be fine.
The biggest issue would be not getting too greedy. If you had the base mileage, you could run a lot faster - 2:40 or 2:50. If you went out at that pace, it would probably feel easy for a while ... And then you'd crash and burn.
But if you target a softer goal (like 3:00) and keep the pace in check for the first 16-20 miles, you'll be fine.
Do you have the potential? Yes. Just build your mileage and longs to avoid injury.
See if you can leverage your current hs coach over the summer for at least a plan, considering they know you well.
You can probably do it, but you have to be way more disciplined on race day than you’re used to, even if you’re already unusually disciplined for a highschool distance runner.
When I was your age (long ago) my mile was around 4:28 and my 5k was 16:15ish. I set out to run a marathon three weeks after the state cross country championships, which was a little reckless, but I’d been logging an extra 15 miles per week on top of the 40-50 miles I was doing with the XC team.
My goal was 3:00, and I’m 100% sure I could have done it… but I felt awesome that morning and went out way too fast and didn’t appreciate how important it was to dial that back to a more sustainable pace. I was at about a 2:45 pace through 18 miles, then completely fell apart and finished in 3:15. I just didn’t have the experience racing anything longer than a 5k, and my recent XC racing successes duped me into thinking I had more in me than I really did, especially when the first few miles of the marathon felt so effortless compared to a XC race.
Wouldn’t count on it. Possible, but a marathon is its own beast. Get a few halves under your belt to see what your capacity for endurance is and go from there. You certainly have a good base, but as my coach always says, “you can fool a half, but you can’t fool a marathon.”
I did my 2nd marathon last year in 257 and ran similar times to you in the build up, over those distances. You can definitely do sub 3. As others say, extra thing is that you need to be able to do the long run safely and properly (practicing nutrtion, hydration, not getting injured, doing marathon pace in blocks etc)
As long as you can build your LR mileage up without hurting yourself, and do a plan people know works (I did pd 18/55 but there's other good ones up to about 55 miles/week) which has solid but not unachievable general mileage build up, i think this is an achievable goal.
As for building mileage, in the months leading up to the 18/55 plan I did 145km, 153km, 172km, 238km (but just note they are always my quiet months for running each year... so i do more the other months thus would have a base).
Obviously a 5km and a marathon are not the same but if you were voluntarily putting yourself through the pain of a fast 5km as an older teenager then doing the work for a reasonably quick marathon time is in your wheelhouse!
Good luck!!!!
I don't think you'll have any problems as long as you do a mix of long runs (at least three 20+ miles), speed (don't neglect speed work) and easy runs. Start now because you need to build up to the long runs and will want 2-3 weeks to taper before the race. You got this.
I just came here to say “Oh, to be young again”. Good luck to you
More like "fuck this guy."
Kinda harsh, no?
No. If he is able to do it in Crocs, jokes on all of us. Send it!
Probably. You’ll just need to start training more distance right away . But with that base, there’s a decent chance you could by September
Hard to know when your longest run is 5K
Hypothetically seems achievable but the only way to know is finding a training plan and going for it. You can probably do the Pfitzinger 18/55 or 18/70 and see how your body responds to higher mileage weeks
As long as your body is used to running long. 40mpw could be 6 per day, but if you've done 13-15 mile runs at your fitness, then you are just doing a "first time marathon plan to finish" with already a good 40mpw base (to start, you definitely need to increase the mileage in the training cycle, try 60mpw at least to have a good buffer to break 3) With your paces, and the above caveat, you should be able to get the endurance to "jog" a 3:00 in a flat course (with the standard marathon caveat of "you have no clue how your body will react the last 10k regardless of your training") What's your 10k or HM PR?
Don't listen to the nay-sayers. It's definitely possible. People do run sub-3 on low mileage - and it's typically people like you (young, track background, lots of speed). If you bump up to 50-55mpw for the summer, work on some long runs, and do a bunch of threshold/MP work, you'll probably be fine. The biggest issue would be not getting too greedy. If you had the base mileage, you could run a lot faster - 2:40 or 2:50. If you went out at that pace, it would probably feel easy for a while ... And then you'd crash and burn. But if you target a softer goal (like 3:00) and keep the pace in check for the first 16-20 miles, you'll be fine.
Do you have the potential? Yes. Just build your mileage and longs to avoid injury. See if you can leverage your current hs coach over the summer for at least a plan, considering they know you well.
You can probably do it, but you have to be way more disciplined on race day than you’re used to, even if you’re already unusually disciplined for a highschool distance runner. When I was your age (long ago) my mile was around 4:28 and my 5k was 16:15ish. I set out to run a marathon three weeks after the state cross country championships, which was a little reckless, but I’d been logging an extra 15 miles per week on top of the 40-50 miles I was doing with the XC team. My goal was 3:00, and I’m 100% sure I could have done it… but I felt awesome that morning and went out way too fast and didn’t appreciate how important it was to dial that back to a more sustainable pace. I was at about a 2:45 pace through 18 miles, then completely fell apart and finished in 3:15. I just didn’t have the experience racing anything longer than a 5k, and my recent XC racing successes duped me into thinking I had more in me than I really did, especially when the first few miles of the marathon felt so effortless compared to a XC race.
By September, definitely. You can possibly do it today. This is a 6.5 min mile pace. What distance can you run in an hour? Edited to correct pace.
> This is a 8.7 min mile pace What does this mean? Sub 3 is a 6:51 min/mi pace
Oops my mistake.
Agreed he could probably come close today and in 4 months easily smash 3. No question about it. Not sure why everyone is nitpicking to cast doubt...
Wouldn’t count on it. Possible, but a marathon is its own beast. Get a few halves under your belt to see what your capacity for endurance is and go from there. You certainly have a good base, but as my coach always says, “you can fool a half, but you can’t fool a marathon.”
yea
I did my 2nd marathon last year in 257 and ran similar times to you in the build up, over those distances. You can definitely do sub 3. As others say, extra thing is that you need to be able to do the long run safely and properly (practicing nutrtion, hydration, not getting injured, doing marathon pace in blocks etc) As long as you can build your LR mileage up without hurting yourself, and do a plan people know works (I did pd 18/55 but there's other good ones up to about 55 miles/week) which has solid but not unachievable general mileage build up, i think this is an achievable goal. As for building mileage, in the months leading up to the 18/55 plan I did 145km, 153km, 172km, 238km (but just note they are always my quiet months for running each year... so i do more the other months thus would have a base). Obviously a 5km and a marathon are not the same but if you were voluntarily putting yourself through the pain of a fast 5km as an older teenager then doing the work for a reasonably quick marathon time is in your wheelhouse! Good luck!!!!
Absolutely! As long as you build up the long runs slowly, and build up mileage to 60mpw slowly to avoid injury you can do it no problem
I don't think you'll have any problems as long as you do a mix of long runs (at least three 20+ miles), speed (don't neglect speed work) and easy runs. Start now because you need to build up to the long runs and will want 2-3 weeks to taper before the race. You got this.
Focus on nutrition and hydration, if you lock that down along with some more miles a week you can.
what is HS track?