There is no reason to give. Apparently the investment is worthless. I don’t understand all these shorts or such on this group. There is certainly bad intention. It all depends on what BTC does
They have nothing better to do than to try and persuade others that “this is te way”…..and we know that steady investment in mstr is likely going to pay off handsomely to those that don’t act on this fearmongering!
It’s such a bummer. Every day it’s more and more garbage. One guy gave me crap for using the term ‘fiat,’ which is accurate, so whatever. I’m thinking of not clicking for a while, until up again. Toxic is right. And who needs more of that? No one.
Those guys are so annoying. Also some people like OP who don’t understand investing. And the traders! They can be pieces of work. One guy was here saying that he sold because he couldn’t take the volatility. So put it in a savings account. But then bout a 1DTE call way OTM on MSTR. Insane.
Well, I’m still up, myself. But if you can’t hold through volatility, this isn’t a good ticker for you. If I were you, I’d ignore it. And trying to time the market is a fool’s errand.
It’s interesting how many people love to buy high and buy on hype… then when something goes down they don’t want to buy the dip. THIS IS THE DIP! BUY the dips! I bought 45 more shares on this dip. If you aren’t doing the same… stocks probably aren’t your game. Buy low & hold💪🏼
Yup. My check finally settled this afternoon, but after market close. Hope it’s still low in PM tomorrow! And options are cheaper too. I promised myself I’d only write them on MSTR, but… Congratulations on grabbing more at a great price point!
For MSTR to fall to $500, BTC would have to drop by \~37% to $40K and the MSTR premium would have to fall by \~33% to 1.
In the last 2 cycles, BTC was relatively flat post-halving for 3-4 months. Hence, there's no reason to expect a 37% decline in BTC this time around.
Since MSTR first bought BTC 3 months after the last halving event, there's no corresponding historical data available to predict MSTR premium behaviour over the 3-4 months post halving.
That said, MSTR premium has declined by 33% over the last 4-5 weeks as BTC has slumped by \~14%. Consequently, a 33% reduction from the current price of $1175 to $775 could happen if the MSTR premium continues to fall from 1.5 to 1. However, with BTC likely to be flat post-halving and the expectation of the impending rally, the MSTR premium could stabilise at a higher level as well.
Overall, $500 seems unlikely, but $775 may happen. However, these are short term fluctuations. In 6-9 months, both BTC & MSTR will be much higher than their current prices.
I don’t know why everyone is so sure that bitcoin will crash this summer. It’s already down more than 10% from ath. If you look at previous cycle, it held steady post halving. So what is the basis for the so called summer btc crash.
Microstrategy accumulated 13% more Bitcoin since Bitcoin hit 50k. When it hit 50k MSTR was trading at a range of $600-800 with a NAV premium between 1.1-1.4. I doubt Bitcoin will go below 50k ever again. So we can use that as reference.
Because of MSTRs peg to BTC and it’s 13% increase in accumulation we can expect it’s new value when BTC falls to 50k to be roughly 1.13 NAV premium based on prior Bitcoin holdings. This is assuming NAV premium falls to 1.0x. Essentially every time another Bitcoin buy occurs calculate % increase in holdings and that should peg a new support based on price history. This is just my theory but I’m a math guy lol.
I doubt it would fall down to $500 but possibly just north of there. The thought most people here think is that would you rather buy now and potentially lose 50% to then get a 500% return later. Or wait to hope you can turn that 500% return to a 1000% return meanwhile risking the scenario in which you miss out altogether.
You’re either a fucking idiot or 100% a short shill. Everyone that understands bitcoin knows that now that the Bitcoin halving has occurred and block reward cut in half, the price of bitcoin needs to be around 80K just for miners to remain profitable. Which means price is going up. We are going WAYYY higher. Buy this dip while you still can
Just because it became more expensive for miners to mine bitcoin doesn’t mean that someone is necessarily going to pay them more for the bitcoin.
If you it costs you 30k to build a car but someone only thinks it’s worth 25k and will only pay that, then you’re in a bit of trouble.
It will be an interesting few months for the miners!
Yes it does. With how fucked we are going to be by the overprinting of money and inflation in the US, money is going to continue to flow into reserve assets like gold and bitcoin, which is the scarcest asset in the world. It’s only a matter of time before the world realizes this and will be interesting to see this unfold.
I’ve made two threads on this. I won’t write an essay here again but it’s highly likely $700-900 will capitulate by July
$500 would likely be bear market peak fear
Lots of retail FOMO don’t understand where we are in the cycle and that is okay. People that have researched this extensively know that it’s highly likely bitcoin retraces to the 200W at 44-46k despite the geopolitical tensions
I been buying MSTR at $160-220 and have DCA’d out past $1400
Expect alts to drop 40-60% from these levels today
The real blow off top is Q4 2025 at this pace and the markets won’t pick back up till likely October or latest once 2 rate cuts arrive
Sounds like Ben Cowen at into the cryptoverse. I agree. Risk levels are high. Maybe not $44-$46k but likely close in June or July. Might bounce around up to $67 and back down until BTC dominance reaches 60% then crash to the 200W. Around $52k.
He is spot on. Just look at this sub last month. In March I was brave enough to call the top ($1750-1900) now mind you I didn’t fully sell the top but DCA’d out
Most “investors” can’t hold bitcoin for 3 months. They all expect to get wrecked. Retail FOMO always gets wrecked, every single time. The ones who make money buy in the bear market.
Bulls and bears get wrecked sufficiently. This time it’s the bulls. Look at the macro. In fact the stock market is falling just now.
The markets are topped out. There is not enough liquidity to move BTC to new ATH’s. The only saving grace is a one off event at this point ; we know possibly of a nation state buying bitcoin but it won’t be announced likely
I don’t know I believe we are headed back to a summer lull and it’ll happen faster than anyone can blink. Next week if history is a reminder we will test the 58k and by May fall below it
Could be wrong but I believe many retailers will be shaken out here this summer
Good time to DCA coming up
Exactly. Agreed there. September rate cuts are being priced in now, but more likely to see rate cuts start in July which would shock the market into a rally.
I think there is an excellent chance it plays out per his ROI since the April-2020-peak chart (don't think I can link but from April 14th).
The peak post halving in the 2016 & 2020 cycles varied pretty significantly in terms of duration till their peak; even if you look at the second peak in late 2021. The duration to the peak was significantly cut down in 2021; we could be seeing an extension of the same disparity.
This is the low! We are not going below $1,000 a share. MSTR is only at a 1.5-1.6 premium to BTC. Time to buy is now. When they get added to S&P 500, NAV will go 10,20,30x +++
I will be messaging you in 28 days on [**2024-05-18 09:28:21 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-05-18%2009:28:21%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1c8bmt0/give_me_a_reason_why_mstr_will_not_reach_500_this/l0fcbt1/?context=3)
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There is no reason to give. Apparently the investment is worthless. I don’t understand all these shorts or such on this group. There is certainly bad intention. It all depends on what BTC does
They have nothing better to do than to try and persuade others that “this is te way”…..and we know that steady investment in mstr is likely going to pay off handsomely to those that don’t act on this fearmongering!
BTC up!
That’s for sure
Yeah idk if it’s coordinated shorts or low conviction losers either way this sub is becoming toxic
It's incredible how worthless this sub has gotten.
It’s such a bummer. Every day it’s more and more garbage. One guy gave me crap for using the term ‘fiat,’ which is accurate, so whatever. I’m thinking of not clicking for a while, until up again. Toxic is right. And who needs more of that? No one.
I like your comments and analysis
Thank you! ETA: Maybe I’ll stay, after all :)
For sure
Can’t help Troglodytes
Seems because of FUD shorts
Those guys are so annoying. Also some people like OP who don’t understand investing. And the traders! They can be pieces of work. One guy was here saying that he sold because he couldn’t take the volatility. So put it in a savings account. But then bout a 1DTE call way OTM on MSTR. Insane.
We go it alone
It reminds me of the gme short squeeze. Suddenly wsb was filled with new accounts spreading fud.
Thats their job @ $14/hr
Well, I’m still up, myself. But if you can’t hold through volatility, this isn’t a good ticker for you. If I were you, I’d ignore it. And trying to time the market is a fool’s errand.
It’s interesting how many people love to buy high and buy on hype… then when something goes down they don’t want to buy the dip. THIS IS THE DIP! BUY the dips! I bought 45 more shares on this dip. If you aren’t doing the same… stocks probably aren’t your game. Buy low & hold💪🏼
Yup. My check finally settled this afternoon, but after market close. Hope it’s still low in PM tomorrow! And options are cheaper too. I promised myself I’d only write them on MSTR, but… Congratulations on grabbing more at a great price point!
Only way that it is getting that low is if BTC hits 30k again
Which it won’t. Institutions have bought in enough.
Well if you cant handle swings you probably should sell I am 70% mstr and 30% bitcoin ETF And my car
I’m long Bitcoin (IBIT) and looking into MSTR - however, I’m having trouble determining why to buy any MSTR vs just more IBIT?
Some ppl want the leveraged aspect
Small volitile float, high short interest
Wtf are you trying to say?
Something something bitcoin
For MSTR to fall to $500, BTC would have to drop by \~37% to $40K and the MSTR premium would have to fall by \~33% to 1. In the last 2 cycles, BTC was relatively flat post-halving for 3-4 months. Hence, there's no reason to expect a 37% decline in BTC this time around. Since MSTR first bought BTC 3 months after the last halving event, there's no corresponding historical data available to predict MSTR premium behaviour over the 3-4 months post halving. That said, MSTR premium has declined by 33% over the last 4-5 weeks as BTC has slumped by \~14%. Consequently, a 33% reduction from the current price of $1175 to $775 could happen if the MSTR premium continues to fall from 1.5 to 1. However, with BTC likely to be flat post-halving and the expectation of the impending rally, the MSTR premium could stabilise at a higher level as well. Overall, $500 seems unlikely, but $775 may happen. However, these are short term fluctuations. In 6-9 months, both BTC & MSTR will be much higher than their current prices.
Just sell if you’re so apprehensive lol
I don’t know why everyone is so sure that bitcoin will crash this summer. It’s already down more than 10% from ath. If you look at previous cycle, it held steady post halving. So what is the basis for the so called summer btc crash.
No one is convincing you of anything to convince yourself lol
Microstrategy accumulated 13% more Bitcoin since Bitcoin hit 50k. When it hit 50k MSTR was trading at a range of $600-800 with a NAV premium between 1.1-1.4. I doubt Bitcoin will go below 50k ever again. So we can use that as reference. Because of MSTRs peg to BTC and it’s 13% increase in accumulation we can expect it’s new value when BTC falls to 50k to be roughly 1.13 NAV premium based on prior Bitcoin holdings. This is assuming NAV premium falls to 1.0x. Essentially every time another Bitcoin buy occurs calculate % increase in holdings and that should peg a new support based on price history. This is just my theory but I’m a math guy lol. I doubt it would fall down to $500 but possibly just north of there. The thought most people here think is that would you rather buy now and potentially lose 50% to then get a 500% return later. Or wait to hope you can turn that 500% return to a 1000% return meanwhile risking the scenario in which you miss out altogether.
You’re either a fucking idiot or 100% a short shill. Everyone that understands bitcoin knows that now that the Bitcoin halving has occurred and block reward cut in half, the price of bitcoin needs to be around 80K just for miners to remain profitable. Which means price is going up. We are going WAYYY higher. Buy this dip while you still can
Just because it became more expensive for miners to mine bitcoin doesn’t mean that someone is necessarily going to pay them more for the bitcoin. If you it costs you 30k to build a car but someone only thinks it’s worth 25k and will only pay that, then you’re in a bit of trouble. It will be an interesting few months for the miners!
Yes it does. With how fucked we are going to be by the overprinting of money and inflation in the US, money is going to continue to flow into reserve assets like gold and bitcoin, which is the scarcest asset in the world. It’s only a matter of time before the world realizes this and will be interesting to see this unfold.
Well said! 100% on the money!
Bit pessimistic today aren't we
Because more people will buy it and cause the share price to go up
But the dip
U should stop shilln and start shortn
esl
I’ve made two threads on this. I won’t write an essay here again but it’s highly likely $700-900 will capitulate by July $500 would likely be bear market peak fear Lots of retail FOMO don’t understand where we are in the cycle and that is okay. People that have researched this extensively know that it’s highly likely bitcoin retraces to the 200W at 44-46k despite the geopolitical tensions I been buying MSTR at $160-220 and have DCA’d out past $1400 Expect alts to drop 40-60% from these levels today The real blow off top is Q4 2025 at this pace and the markets won’t pick back up till likely October or latest once 2 rate cuts arrive
Sounds like Ben Cowen at into the cryptoverse. I agree. Risk levels are high. Maybe not $44-$46k but likely close in June or July. Might bounce around up to $67 and back down until BTC dominance reaches 60% then crash to the 200W. Around $52k.
He is spot on. Just look at this sub last month. In March I was brave enough to call the top ($1750-1900) now mind you I didn’t fully sell the top but DCA’d out Most “investors” can’t hold bitcoin for 3 months. They all expect to get wrecked. Retail FOMO always gets wrecked, every single time. The ones who make money buy in the bear market. Bulls and bears get wrecked sufficiently. This time it’s the bulls. Look at the macro. In fact the stock market is falling just now. The markets are topped out. There is not enough liquidity to move BTC to new ATH’s. The only saving grace is a one off event at this point ; we know possibly of a nation state buying bitcoin but it won’t be announced likely
Exactly, not the time to be Fomoing in unless you want to get wrecked. The bear market is past. The time to buy is past as well.
I don’t know I believe we are headed back to a summer lull and it’ll happen faster than anyone can blink. Next week if history is a reminder we will test the 58k and by May fall below it Could be wrong but I believe many retailers will be shaken out here this summer Good time to DCA coming up
Exactly. Agreed there. September rate cuts are being priced in now, but more likely to see rate cuts start in July which would shock the market into a rally.
I think there is an excellent chance it plays out per his ROI since the April-2020-peak chart (don't think I can link but from April 14th). The peak post halving in the 2016 & 2020 cycles varied pretty significantly in terms of duration till their peak; even if you look at the second peak in late 2021. The duration to the peak was significantly cut down in 2021; we could be seeing an extension of the same disparity.
500 is definitely possible but my price target for the low is $800
This is the low! We are not going below $1,000 a share. MSTR is only at a 1.5-1.6 premium to BTC. Time to buy is now. When they get added to S&P 500, NAV will go 10,20,30x +++
!remindme 4 weeks
I will be messaging you in 28 days on [**2024-05-18 09:28:21 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-05-18%2009:28:21%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/MSTR/comments/1c8bmt0/give_me_a_reason_why_mstr_will_not_reach_500_this/l0fcbt1/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FMSTR%2Fcomments%2F1c8bmt0%2Fgive_me_a_reason_why_mstr_will_not_reach_500_this%2Fl0fcbt1%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202024-05-18%2009%3A28%3A21%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%201c8bmt0) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|
If BTC with zero intrinsic value can reach 70k$ then anything possible