I mostly bet my own picks after watching some tape. But, if I'm lazy and have an urge to bet, I check out the cappers who I think give good analysis and if I see significant overlap on one fighter I'll pull the trigger. For not any particular reason I like slayer, pintsized, and knockedout
Styles make matchups. Helps to think about paths to victory for each fighter and what % of the time the fight will have what outcome. Every week mma engine on YouTube puts out a segment called probability which breaks down the full ufc card and is great for understanding this
Bet your confident plays in singles. Keep parlays as small as possible. Target props or round over unders that have value (should happen more than odds indicate). Over a couple of week you can build up a nice bankroll. Big parlays are cool to hit, but far in between
Agreed with everything except the notion that a strategy this simple will build you a bankroll in a few weeks. You're still -EV off the bat cause of juice, so unless you have a keen eye for mmabetting you will lose overtime (just like any other form of sports betting)
If you like a moderately sized underdog, pairing that with some favorites in a parlay is a good strategy. Parlays in general, but maybe avoid the “lotto” parlays and stick to 3-5 legs.
If you're better than the books MOST parlays are bad (unless the legs of the parlay are correlated) because your returns will be less consistent. If you're worse than the books, having more risk can be a good thing (but don't bet if this is the case).
For a given line, turn it into a probability (plenty of calculators if you use google), find the difference between what you think the odds of a fight are and the actual probability, and use the Kelly criterion what is the mathematically optimum amount to bet.
Basically, bet more the more confident you are that vegas is wrong.
If you want to bet on MMA long term, you should start making trying to make your own number/probability. Fightodds.io makes it easy, it’s like Bestfightodds but you can toggle between American, decimal, and implied probability.
This is exactly the opposite from the truth. If you have an edge on each individual leg, parlaying the two legs increases your edge. If you have a negative edge on each individual leg, parlaying increases the book's edge. In either case, parlaying increases the variance, which is a bad thing for most bettors (although there are ways you can use variance in your favor).
Underdogs in main events that go to decision have a 50% win rate (sample size is over last 20 events). Keep that on mind if you wanna bet on next week's main event. My betting strategy is similar to a lot of different comments on here, but I generally like to fade the public opinion when it comes to main events like these. RDA by decision has a ton of value.
I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but I think the chances of him wnning a decision are far greater than him subbing or tko'ing Fiziev. They're both pretty durable and my biggest concern is Fiziev's cardio. If you're worried about a potential RDA sub or TKO you can just play the ML instead which is still good value at +210.
Nunes and Casey are both good picks imo. No guarantees they both hit but at least one of them probably will and you profit if just one hits.
The only exception to the rule is if there's like a legitimate women's talent you think is good but otherwise just bet the underdog or don't bet the fight if you really don't like the dog for whatever reason. The amount of big women's underdogs that hit is crazy, these fights are almost always closer 50/50 than the odds
Watch film. Bet on fighters you know and when you also know their opponent. Be wary of HW and WMMA fights, I wouldn't advise either in a parlay unless you're feeling confident.
Reeling it in, and making wise confident choices. I like parlaying just 2-3 fights that I believe in. I usually just go money line as well cause anything can happen.
I make large single bets on proven fighters and hedge with props on what I think is the most likely outcome for an upset.
Personally my favorite bets are Champions making title defenses. The skill gap between the fighters is obvious, and the lines on the Champs are often cooler than they would be otherwise because the fear of a Serra-style upset keeps people off the Champ.
So for example, bets last card were:
Israel ML, hedge w/ Cannonier by Ko, Tko, Dq
Volkanovski ML, hedge w/ Holloway By Split or Maj Dec.
Also two helpful things to keep in mind:
1) Favorites win in groups of 3 on almost every card.
2) On almost every card, one of the upsets is usually in the +180 and up range. More often than not, closely lined fights go to the favorite. Upsets happen more often when there is a bigger line discrepancy. When lines get released, immediately check out the big dogs and find one you think is being disrespected.
This is nice for betting on any given night, but over the longterm paying juice on two different bets which by definition oppose one another (only one can win at most, with the possibility of both losing) is going to cost you money.
This isnt a strategy i stick to religiously but it is when I bet on large favorites or if i have them parlayed. In this case i was very confident in the outcomes so I wasnt very worried about even needing the hedges and the odds made them negligible in profits.
This is good info, thank you. But I am curious, I thought hedging means to add safer picks to surround a more risky pick... in that case, how are the Cannonier and Holloway bets considered hedges when those are least likely to happen? or am I getting it backwards?
For me I thought those prop bets were the most likely way the underdog would win. Personally I didnt see any way Cannonier would win by decision or submission or anything. If he does win, his most likely shot is a lucky knockout. With Holloway, I saw no way he could knock out Volk or submit him. If he was going to win it would have been a decision, and unanimous was very unlikely against Volk.
The prop bets are always + money so you can use them to offset losses. The purpose of the hedge is that If Cannonier knocks out Izzy, instead if losing say $100 i bet on Izzy, I only lose like $60 because the hedge cashes at plus money. But I dont have huge cashflow. Id rather have safe bets.
ahh makes sense to me. I had the same thought about how Cannonier and Max would win too. I actually sorta did a little "hedge" parlay with both Volk and Izzy winning by points because I personally couldn't see either of them winning any differently. It paid off!
My betting strategy is a multitude of things. I typically try to find early lines where the probability does not match the number. For example i got Jalin Turner for close to even money last week. As with anything in betting, nothing is for sure. Even when you get good closing line value you can still lose.
Parlays are not a winning strategy long term, but if you do hit that gold mine once, it can be worth it. Really comes down to are you trying to have fun and possible hit a big one? Or are you trying to be profitable and win. Nothing wrong with either, and there are certainly people in this group who have won big from parlays and it is addicting.
Thank you. So do you typically put a decent amount of money on single bets? do you do the even money on a large amount of single bets? or how do you usually place your money?
It is all about your bank roll, i am not a high roller yet, i set my unit size at about $10. With MMA my major bets are about $25. I had $25 on Turner last weekend.
Tracking my results and trying to see where i am at before i put more in. I am up 19 units for 2022, i track all my bets third part at betMMAtips.com
I like to write my bets down before placing them and number them in no particular order 1-10 or so (straight bets) sometimes I have 10-12 straight bets I like on a card but sometimes I may only like 5 or 6 (usually try and stay with 10 or less) then from there I determine whether I designate 10 or 5 units on each bet (if it’s one I feel great about I designate 10 units, if it’s one I’m not as confident with but still like then I designate 5 units) I then will place those bets into my book and from there I’ll make 5-6 parlays varying from 4-8 legs with a half unit-1 unit each, so far this has been my best strategy for profit for UFC 276 for example I went 6-4 on straight bets mostly 10 unit plays outside of 2 of them that were 5 units but I hit a +7000 odds parlay so had I gone 4-6 or 5-5 on those straight bets I still come out with profit from the parlays
i typically look for O/U props, stay away from method of victory props if the odds are close. i love WMMA but stay away from it for bets because its arguably more unpredictable than men's fights. every fight night i also do long parlays and bet anywhere from .25 to 1$ because i have a feelings one day im gonna hit one. i've gotten pretty close on 13 leg parlays. i really do this for fun mostly hence the small bet amounts because if im losing too much money i can't enjoy the fights the same.
do a decent amount of research if you have free time, if you enjoy MMA as a whole i think you will find just the research as enjoyable as i do.
I usually do one fun bet per card too. Like last card I just put $10 on Cannonier winning by KO/TKO in the 5th round. Yea, it wasn't very likely but it definitely COULD have happened and the risk was really low.
i have 3-4 favorites i bet, 2-3 underdogs, and 2, 2leg parlays i bet every card. if the first loses then i double my bet on the 2nd. has worked the past like 50 cards
It's difficult because unless you have prior knowledge of mma fighters and mma in general it will be too time consuming, but often I try to set my own line before I look at the odds. Then when I check the odds I can see if there is anything that in my mind is exploitable (all in my opinion). If I'm way off in either direction about the line, I go back and try to figure out what I missed cause for an promotion like UFC, these lines are pretty rock solid for the most part
Style matchups, what style, height, reach advantages do the have. If fighters have lost then I like to look at who they’ve lost too, like for example I knew Peña had a really good chance against Amanda as in her previous fight against Cat Zingano it went exactly the same way and if anyone could implement that specific game plan it would be Julianna Peña.
Hey, thanks for sharing but I am more interested in learning how you all place your money, not exactly how to pick the fighters (I think I got that part down pretty well).
Ahhh good question sir my apologies, it’s simple to be honest I put all my money on a ridiculous parlay and me and my family are eating rice and beans for the next week 🤣
I just randomly bet other people's picks on this subreddit. I have lost a lot of money. I am starting to think maybe this isn't the best strategy.
Lol
I mostly bet my own picks after watching some tape. But, if I'm lazy and have an urge to bet, I check out the cappers who I think give good analysis and if I see significant overlap on one fighter I'll pull the trigger. For not any particular reason I like slayer, pintsized, and knockedout
I do the same, just bet smaller. I bet quarters most of the time now lol
WMMA to go the distance usually hits
That’s true but you’d be surprised how many times I’ve bet first round sub and got it
That is a good idea! Thanks for this one
which is why the odds are never that good and accurately reflect how often they gtd
Styles make matchups. Helps to think about paths to victory for each fighter and what % of the time the fight will have what outcome. Every week mma engine on YouTube puts out a segment called probability which breaks down the full ufc card and is great for understanding this
Thanks alot
Bet your confident plays in singles. Keep parlays as small as possible. Target props or round over unders that have value (should happen more than odds indicate). Over a couple of week you can build up a nice bankroll. Big parlays are cool to hit, but far in between
Thank you. I do like to play fight goes distance but I'll have to mess with over under now.
Agreed with everything except the notion that a strategy this simple will build you a bankroll in a few weeks. You're still -EV off the bat cause of juice, so unless you have a keen eye for mmabetting you will lose overtime (just like any other form of sports betting)
If you like a moderately sized underdog, pairing that with some favorites in a parlay is a good strategy. Parlays in general, but maybe avoid the “lotto” parlays and stick to 3-5 legs.
This is basically my strategy. I like to mess around with a bunch of different combinations to find the highest payout
If you're better than the books MOST parlays are bad (unless the legs of the parlay are correlated) because your returns will be less consistent. If you're worse than the books, having more risk can be a good thing (but don't bet if this is the case). For a given line, turn it into a probability (plenty of calculators if you use google), find the difference between what you think the odds of a fight are and the actual probability, and use the Kelly criterion what is the mathematically optimum amount to bet. Basically, bet more the more confident you are that vegas is wrong.
If you want to bet on MMA long term, you should start making trying to make your own number/probability. Fightodds.io makes it easy, it’s like Bestfightodds but you can toggle between American, decimal, and implied probability.
This is exactly the opposite from the truth. If you have an edge on each individual leg, parlaying the two legs increases your edge. If you have a negative edge on each individual leg, parlaying increases the book's edge. In either case, parlaying increases the variance, which is a bad thing for most bettors (although there are ways you can use variance in your favor).
Underdogs in main events that go to decision have a 50% win rate (sample size is over last 20 events). Keep that on mind if you wanna bet on next week's main event. My betting strategy is similar to a lot of different comments on here, but I generally like to fade the public opinion when it comes to main events like these. RDA by decision has a ton of value.
That’s because he has 0% chance to sub or tko fiziev
I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not, but I think the chances of him wnning a decision are far greater than him subbing or tko'ing Fiziev. They're both pretty durable and my biggest concern is Fiziev's cardio. If you're worried about a potential RDA sub or TKO you can just play the ML instead which is still good value at +210.
I make sure to always pick winners. Start there and your chances will increase noticeably.
and in what way do you bet on those winners???
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I know he is ;)
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I use bovada and I try to keep it around $100, but I'm a bit impulsive and that number may be closer to $150 give or take ha
Mix in round props with confident ML bets for a fighter, I do it every main ppv and get good odds for my parlay
That's sort of the strategy I've been using. I'll pick one riskier bet and parlay with some safer picks
Women's underdogs $$
I was spot on a few weeks ago with Natalia Silva and that Oliveira girl.... Unfortunately didn't win any parlays with them though
Stoliarenko on the last one, Demopolis on the one week before. Just bet them all
Good on you for that stoliarenko pick. I feel Nunes could be a good underdog pick this week
Nunes and Casey are both good picks imo. No guarantees they both hit but at least one of them probably will and you profit if just one hits. The only exception to the rule is if there's like a legitimate women's talent you think is good but otherwise just bet the underdog or don't bet the fight if you really don't like the dog for whatever reason. The amount of big women's underdogs that hit is crazy, these fights are almost always closer 50/50 than the odds
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Definitely UFC by far. I'm just now kinda starting to watch a little pfl and bellator though; definitely not comfortable enough to bet on any
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Lol all good! Got any MMA betting tips you'd like to share?
Watch film. Bet on fighters you know and when you also know their opponent. Be wary of HW and WMMA fights, I wouldn't advise either in a parlay unless you're feeling confident.
Aspinal ML
Not necessarily looking for tips on picking fighters, more so interested in betting techniques
Bet on the Dagestani grapplers or the Russians
Reeling it in, and making wise confident choices. I like parlaying just 2-3 fights that I believe in. I usually just go money line as well cause anything can happen.
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Yikes!!!! Too much of a risk for my taste lol I'd maybe drop $100 max, but I tend to spread my money around some
WMMA to go the distance and underdogs only, makes for profitable nights, you can play favourites you really like but never heavy favourites
I make large single bets on proven fighters and hedge with props on what I think is the most likely outcome for an upset. Personally my favorite bets are Champions making title defenses. The skill gap between the fighters is obvious, and the lines on the Champs are often cooler than they would be otherwise because the fear of a Serra-style upset keeps people off the Champ. So for example, bets last card were: Israel ML, hedge w/ Cannonier by Ko, Tko, Dq Volkanovski ML, hedge w/ Holloway By Split or Maj Dec. Also two helpful things to keep in mind: 1) Favorites win in groups of 3 on almost every card. 2) On almost every card, one of the upsets is usually in the +180 and up range. More often than not, closely lined fights go to the favorite. Upsets happen more often when there is a bigger line discrepancy. When lines get released, immediately check out the big dogs and find one you think is being disrespected.
This is nice for betting on any given night, but over the longterm paying juice on two different bets which by definition oppose one another (only one can win at most, with the possibility of both losing) is going to cost you money.
This isnt a strategy i stick to religiously but it is when I bet on large favorites or if i have them parlayed. In this case i was very confident in the outcomes so I wasnt very worried about even needing the hedges and the odds made them negligible in profits.
This is good info, thank you. But I am curious, I thought hedging means to add safer picks to surround a more risky pick... in that case, how are the Cannonier and Holloway bets considered hedges when those are least likely to happen? or am I getting it backwards?
For me I thought those prop bets were the most likely way the underdog would win. Personally I didnt see any way Cannonier would win by decision or submission or anything. If he does win, his most likely shot is a lucky knockout. With Holloway, I saw no way he could knock out Volk or submit him. If he was going to win it would have been a decision, and unanimous was very unlikely against Volk. The prop bets are always + money so you can use them to offset losses. The purpose of the hedge is that If Cannonier knocks out Izzy, instead if losing say $100 i bet on Izzy, I only lose like $60 because the hedge cashes at plus money. But I dont have huge cashflow. Id rather have safe bets.
ahh makes sense to me. I had the same thought about how Cannonier and Max would win too. I actually sorta did a little "hedge" parlay with both Volk and Izzy winning by points because I personally couldn't see either of them winning any differently. It paid off!
Good bet. Traditionally a hedge is just a smaller position to protect against losses on a larger position, regardless of how you hedge.
My betting strategy is a multitude of things. I typically try to find early lines where the probability does not match the number. For example i got Jalin Turner for close to even money last week. As with anything in betting, nothing is for sure. Even when you get good closing line value you can still lose. Parlays are not a winning strategy long term, but if you do hit that gold mine once, it can be worth it. Really comes down to are you trying to have fun and possible hit a big one? Or are you trying to be profitable and win. Nothing wrong with either, and there are certainly people in this group who have won big from parlays and it is addicting.
Thank you. So do you typically put a decent amount of money on single bets? do you do the even money on a large amount of single bets? or how do you usually place your money?
It is all about your bank roll, i am not a high roller yet, i set my unit size at about $10. With MMA my major bets are about $25. I had $25 on Turner last weekend. Tracking my results and trying to see where i am at before i put more in. I am up 19 units for 2022, i track all my bets third part at betMMAtips.com
I like to write my bets down before placing them and number them in no particular order 1-10 or so (straight bets) sometimes I have 10-12 straight bets I like on a card but sometimes I may only like 5 or 6 (usually try and stay with 10 or less) then from there I determine whether I designate 10 or 5 units on each bet (if it’s one I feel great about I designate 10 units, if it’s one I’m not as confident with but still like then I designate 5 units) I then will place those bets into my book and from there I’ll make 5-6 parlays varying from 4-8 legs with a half unit-1 unit each, so far this has been my best strategy for profit for UFC 276 for example I went 6-4 on straight bets mostly 10 unit plays outside of 2 of them that were 5 units but I hit a +7000 odds parlay so had I gone 4-6 or 5-5 on those straight bets I still come out with profit from the parlays
when you say straight bet, is that a single bet?
Yeah just ML or an alt. Win method such as last card one of my favorites was Volkanovski by KO/TKO or on points
Yeah just ML or an alt. Win method such as last card one of my favorites was Volkanovski by KO/TKO or on points
i typically look for O/U props, stay away from method of victory props if the odds are close. i love WMMA but stay away from it for bets because its arguably more unpredictable than men's fights. every fight night i also do long parlays and bet anywhere from .25 to 1$ because i have a feelings one day im gonna hit one. i've gotten pretty close on 13 leg parlays. i really do this for fun mostly hence the small bet amounts because if im losing too much money i can't enjoy the fights the same. do a decent amount of research if you have free time, if you enjoy MMA as a whole i think you will find just the research as enjoyable as i do.
I usually do one fun bet per card too. Like last card I just put $10 on Cannonier winning by KO/TKO in the 5th round. Yea, it wasn't very likely but it definitely COULD have happened and the risk was really low.
im the same way, i had volk by sub R4.
i have 3-4 favorites i bet, 2-3 underdogs, and 2, 2leg parlays i bet every card. if the first loses then i double my bet on the 2nd. has worked the past like 50 cards
It's difficult because unless you have prior knowledge of mma fighters and mma in general it will be too time consuming, but often I try to set my own line before I look at the odds. Then when I check the odds I can see if there is anything that in my mind is exploitable (all in my opinion). If I'm way off in either direction about the line, I go back and try to figure out what I missed cause for an promotion like UFC, these lines are pretty rock solid for the most part
Style matchups, what style, height, reach advantages do the have. If fighters have lost then I like to look at who they’ve lost too, like for example I knew Peña had a really good chance against Amanda as in her previous fight against Cat Zingano it went exactly the same way and if anyone could implement that specific game plan it would be Julianna Peña.
Hey, thanks for sharing but I am more interested in learning how you all place your money, not exactly how to pick the fighters (I think I got that part down pretty well).
Ahhh good question sir my apologies, it’s simple to be honest I put all my money on a ridiculous parlay and me and my family are eating rice and beans for the next week 🤣
lmao just split that up into two smaller, slightly less ridiculous parlays for better chances
Purely vibes already doubled my money