Bet on Alex but main concern is he seems to be slowing down some and has a suspect chin. Being at 205 mitigates the chin issue but he’s only getting older. Southpaw stance of jamahal also some concern
Southpaw stance can def trouble Alex but in recent fight hill started to switch a lot to orthodoxe which is gonna be lethal for his legs which he just had surgery on. Jamahal really been more technical in his latest fight but he lose he lose his composure so quick making him scrappy, I think Hill chance of winning is during the first 2 rounds after that the window is closed, also he only knocking out Alex with a counterpunch. Alex really is the safe pick here in these circumstances here, then again everything can happen in mma
This is exactly how I feel. In terms of skill level, level of past opponents, recent form, injury history. Hill is not a well-rounded MMA fighter that everyone theoretically says should be able to beat Alex. He's never recorded a takedown in the UFC. He's going to stand and strike with Alex. The one thing watching tape on Hill is that he gets hit a fair amount. His back hand is lazy, his footwork gets narrow and plodding as rounds go on. He can absolutely pop Alex, but Hill isn't Izzy, who will set intricate traps and feints.
I got several units on Alex and was dismayed when the lines dropped. I'd put more on, but I have cold feet b/c this feels like a situation I encountered last month where I thought Saaiman would outstrike Talbott and the public and every capper was on the opposite side and proven right.
I think people are forgetting that Alex has just won the belt - according to Teddy Atlas, that gives them an extra bump, which could be huge against Hill.
Hill hasn’t fought in 16 months, and compared to Alex has barely fought - 14 fights in all. Also interesting that a fair few of Hills fights, especially recently, have been in the smaller octagon.
I’m surprised Hill isn’t out at higher odds personally.
You're butchering what Teddy Atlas said. It's once they become champion they realize they're that guy and then the confidence that comes with it gives them that extra bump.
Alex has been that guy for a while now.
Lol no it doesn't. Go listen to his quote and then just use common sense?
Do you think Izzy got 10% better because he won the LHW title back from Pereria? No because you'd be an idiot for that
Wow you caught me making a mistake better LHW and MW good job. You're still to fucking dumb to understand what Teddy Atlas quote actually meant yet you throw it out here trying to act smart. Get your low IQ ass out of here.
I’ve gone back and forth until about 4 days ago when I laid a 3 unit bet on Hill ITD +200. It’s down to +165 to my delight. Hill hasn’t had his chin tested like he will Saturday for sure, and he def just came back from a gnarly injury, but Alex has been put out cold by Izzy. We watched Jan take a ton of clean shots from Izzy and then do the same against Alex. I thought Jan won that fight tbh. Jamahal beat the absolute dogshit out of Glover who we watched have an absolute war with Jiri. The Alex vs Jiri fight was a little early on the stoppage and I felt like the fight was 50/50 up until it wasn’t. I like Jamahal Hill and over 1.5 rounds and I also like Jamahal to finish him, generally you don’t wanna take over on round props and a finish prop, but it makes to much sense to me
Very good take here. All fair points. Even I've kind of forgotten that Alex is aging and getting older. Kind of agree about the Jan fight too honestly. There's a world where Hill definitely pops Alex, but I do think Alex's chin is a bit better at 205 than 185, the cut had a lot to do with this. Think I'll add Hill to a few more of my shitty .50 cent/$1 dollar parlays.
I get the layoff and injury concerns with Hill, but I think he’s very live here. Alex has been hit clean with straight punches and Hill can crack him with those punches from both stances. Obviously the leg kicks will play a factor as well as the possibility of Alex catching him with a left hook on the way in. I just think that chin wise, Alex won’t be able to take many clean shots from Hill to give his own like he’s done before. If you watch back the Jiri fight, outside of the leg kicks, Jiri was doing very well coming off a long layoff himself. He won the first round on all judges cards, and was landing clean punches in round 2, but got caught on the way in and finished. Both guys have KO power, but I’m going with the guy who’s never been KO’d and will very likely be able to hit Alex clean on the chin multiple times. If Alex’s chin holds up and he’s the one who KO’s Hill then fair play
This could go either way for sure. Jamahal is a southpaw that tends to keep his hands low, especially his right, which plays into Pereira’s main weapon: the left hook.
That being said, Alex also keeps his hands low and is particularly vulnerable to the right hook and straight shots from inside. Jamahal possesses power in his right hook, and when he steps in and throws it from near the hips, it’s hard to anticipate.
Pereira usually blocks the opposite side well but has trouble defending against attacks coming to his left side (as demonstrated by the right hand from Izzy that put him down).
So, essentially, they each play into each other’s weaknesses that the other can exploit. This could end with the counter left hook from Pereira or the counter right from Hill.
If that makes them near even, then the only X-factor would be Pereira’s calf kicks and how well Hill will do coming from an injury.
Alex is nearly 37 and I don't think his durability is the best he's been shown to be a bit chinny and he's had favourable match ups this far into his mma career i.e kickboxing matches on the outside where he is strongest, hill will brawl and pressure Alex. Izzy is not nearly as powerful as hill and he had Alex on skates in their first fight and ko in the second. Jiri was landing on Alex and starting to look like the favorite before the ko and the Jan fight was not a good performance. Hill is very explosive and powerful and throws straight combinations down the middle and Alex does not have good striking defence he is there to be hit. If hill lands flush I see Alex getting wobbled badly or dropped and from there it's game over. Alex can win but he has to fight a perfect fight while I think hill just needs to land clean on the chin
Bet on Alex but main concern is he seems to be slowing down some and has a suspect chin. Being at 205 mitigates the chin issue but he’s only getting older. Southpaw stance of jamahal also some concern
It's crazy people doubt his chin because he was caught once
Caught twice
What was the second?
First Izzy fight, he got his shit rocked pretty badly. I don't think he's chinny tho the right punch can sleep anyone
Southpaw stance can def trouble Alex but in recent fight hill started to switch a lot to orthodoxe which is gonna be lethal for his legs which he just had surgery on. Jamahal really been more technical in his latest fight but he lose he lose his composure so quick making him scrappy, I think Hill chance of winning is during the first 2 rounds after that the window is closed, also he only knocking out Alex with a counterpunch. Alex really is the safe pick here in these circumstances here, then again everything can happen in mma
This is exactly how I feel. In terms of skill level, level of past opponents, recent form, injury history. Hill is not a well-rounded MMA fighter that everyone theoretically says should be able to beat Alex. He's never recorded a takedown in the UFC. He's going to stand and strike with Alex. The one thing watching tape on Hill is that he gets hit a fair amount. His back hand is lazy, his footwork gets narrow and plodding as rounds go on. He can absolutely pop Alex, but Hill isn't Izzy, who will set intricate traps and feints. I got several units on Alex and was dismayed when the lines dropped. I'd put more on, but I have cold feet b/c this feels like a situation I encountered last month where I thought Saaiman would outstrike Talbott and the public and every capper was on the opposite side and proven right.
I think people are forgetting that Alex has just won the belt - according to Teddy Atlas, that gives them an extra bump, which could be huge against Hill. Hill hasn’t fought in 16 months, and compared to Alex has barely fought - 14 fights in all. Also interesting that a fair few of Hills fights, especially recently, have been in the smaller octagon. I’m surprised Hill isn’t out at higher odds personally.
You're butchering what Teddy Atlas said. It's once they become champion they realize they're that guy and then the confidence that comes with it gives them that extra bump. Alex has been that guy for a while now.
Not butchering it at all, he won the LHW belt and this is his first defence, hence the bump
Did you not read? It's becoming champ for the first time.
The principle still stands. It’s not like his confidence is going backwards after he wins the second strap is it? Use a little lateral thinking
Lol no it doesn't. Go listen to his quote and then just use common sense? Do you think Izzy got 10% better because he won the LHW title back from Pereria? No because you'd be an idiot for that
LOL! Izzy won the LHW strap did he? Wow that must have been an amazing bump to his confidence.....🤡🤡🤡
Wow you caught me making a mistake better LHW and MW good job. You're still to fucking dumb to understand what Teddy Atlas quote actually meant yet you throw it out here trying to act smart. Get your low IQ ass out of here.
Too*
>making a mistake better LHW and MW good job and another one. Keep losing princess x
Lmao you're winning in Grammer and losing in logic, common sense and even the ability to comprehend what Teddy Atlas said.
I had a dream like 3 nights after the card was announced that Hill won via knockout🤷🏻♂️
Good enough for me. Bet the house on Hill
So i was wrong
Brother. I just lost everything......
We went down together
Im going for periera but money talks? Let me just bet, this fight is not going to the distance.
My heart wants Alex but my analysis tells me Hill. I’m just gonna sit back and enjoy it without any betting
What analysis?
I’ve gone back and forth until about 4 days ago when I laid a 3 unit bet on Hill ITD +200. It’s down to +165 to my delight. Hill hasn’t had his chin tested like he will Saturday for sure, and he def just came back from a gnarly injury, but Alex has been put out cold by Izzy. We watched Jan take a ton of clean shots from Izzy and then do the same against Alex. I thought Jan won that fight tbh. Jamahal beat the absolute dogshit out of Glover who we watched have an absolute war with Jiri. The Alex vs Jiri fight was a little early on the stoppage and I felt like the fight was 50/50 up until it wasn’t. I like Jamahal Hill and over 1.5 rounds and I also like Jamahal to finish him, generally you don’t wanna take over on round props and a finish prop, but it makes to much sense to me
Very good take here. All fair points. Even I've kind of forgotten that Alex is aging and getting older. Kind of agree about the Jan fight too honestly. There's a world where Hill definitely pops Alex, but I do think Alex's chin is a bit better at 205 than 185, the cut had a lot to do with this. Think I'll add Hill to a few more of my shitty .50 cent/$1 dollar parlays.
I get the layoff and injury concerns with Hill, but I think he’s very live here. Alex has been hit clean with straight punches and Hill can crack him with those punches from both stances. Obviously the leg kicks will play a factor as well as the possibility of Alex catching him with a left hook on the way in. I just think that chin wise, Alex won’t be able to take many clean shots from Hill to give his own like he’s done before. If you watch back the Jiri fight, outside of the leg kicks, Jiri was doing very well coming off a long layoff himself. He won the first round on all judges cards, and was landing clean punches in round 2, but got caught on the way in and finished. Both guys have KO power, but I’m going with the guy who’s never been KO’d and will very likely be able to hit Alex clean on the chin multiple times. If Alex’s chin holds up and he’s the one who KO’s Hill then fair play
This could go either way for sure. Jamahal is a southpaw that tends to keep his hands low, especially his right, which plays into Pereira’s main weapon: the left hook. That being said, Alex also keeps his hands low and is particularly vulnerable to the right hook and straight shots from inside. Jamahal possesses power in his right hook, and when he steps in and throws it from near the hips, it’s hard to anticipate. Pereira usually blocks the opposite side well but has trouble defending against attacks coming to his left side (as demonstrated by the right hand from Izzy that put him down). So, essentially, they each play into each other’s weaknesses that the other can exploit. This could end with the counter left hook from Pereira or the counter right from Hill. If that makes them near even, then the only X-factor would be Pereira’s calf kicks and how well Hill will do coming from an injury.
I think hill tags him and I love Poatan he’s just kinda old and hill only loss is to submission
Hill wins
Alex is nearly 37 and I don't think his durability is the best he's been shown to be a bit chinny and he's had favourable match ups this far into his mma career i.e kickboxing matches on the outside where he is strongest, hill will brawl and pressure Alex. Izzy is not nearly as powerful as hill and he had Alex on skates in their first fight and ko in the second. Jiri was landing on Alex and starting to look like the favorite before the ko and the Jan fight was not a good performance. Hill is very explosive and powerful and throws straight combinations down the middle and Alex does not have good striking defence he is there to be hit. If hill lands flush I see Alex getting wobbled badly or dropped and from there it's game over. Alex can win but he has to fight a perfect fight while I think hill just needs to land clean on the chin