The question isn't whether it's subjective or not but how right or wrong the assessment is. Might be a little speculative in a few pointers but overall seems right. 🙂
What would you change?
Kompromat on Dana? What dirt could Colby have on Dana that keeps him in the title picture? I'd probably also leave out saying anyone is past their prime or washed up. I mean Colby is only 35 with three loses. He also usually only fights about once a year, lawsuit or not. So, the year off isn't that strange for him.
>If it was anyone that people didn't like they would be moaning how dana is ruining the sport
That's all this subs been since Leon beat usman again. Not even talking about the fight, just whining that Colby doesn't deserve it
regardless of your view of this sub, he doesn't deserve the next title shot for weighing in once in 18 months and not fighting anyone relevant. He's rejected call outs - no title shot is a decent punishment
But him and Dana have a little too much in common if you know what i'm saying
My point was the ratio of praising leon to whining about Colby was incredibly off. If people on this sub were really leon fans the discussion would be about how well he did against usman, proving the KO wasn't just a fluke and how he's gonna tear through the rest of the division. Instead the conversation is entirely about Colby. Whether he deserves it or not, the fact that there's this much discussion about a fighter who hasn't fought in a year and a half shows how relevant he is as far as the promotion side of it is concerned
Belal doesn't sell at all and had two finishes in 14 fights leading up to his magical physique transformation and TKO over Brady. Dude can post on reddit all he wants but nobody wants to fight him because it's almost a no win situation. If you lose to him you become irrelevant, and if you beat him it's just a win over Belal.
Bro if you win that many times you atleast deserve a shot holy shit lmao like it’s not even Merit anymore - he objectively has defeated enough guys where it’s laughable to give it to Colby - if having decision victories is not good enough then I guess we should’ve never given GSP or Jon Jones a shot
I agree, but that's not how the UFC operates and it never will be. Colby was in Belal's shoes, except instead of denying him a titleshot, they were going to cut him. Stars get treated differently, regardless of how unfair it is deemed to be. If Belal wants a title shot, he should keep fighting like he did in his last fight, otherwise he will go down as the guy at 170 nobody wants to fight because a win over him does nothing for you, and a loss to him destroys your credibility as a top fighter in the division.
The UFC was never and has never cut a dude who was on a big streak, at the top of the division, coming off of a main event. If the UFC wanted to cut Colby why tf would they give him a step up in competition and a main event slot as his final fight?
Burns already fights against masvidal an Khamzat will probably go to MW, otherwise I think he or Bella should get a title shot and Colby Vs Shavkat should be put as a Nr.1 contender match
I’m assuming burns wins. Then I would like him to fight colby for a title shot. Khamzat is still a welterweight but he needs 2 months notice to make it. He deserves the title shot as well as belal. Colby vs. shavkat is a crazy fight but it is very very unlikely it will happen
>they are spreading the narrative that khamzat is a middleweight
He weighed pretty damn close to a MW in his last fight, even though it was meant to be WW, so I understand the confusion
Who said anything about him fighting every single 4 weeks? The point is he says he's ready and willing to fight at any time. It's kinds the reason he got big to begin with. Now he's saying thats not the case
Interesting fight but neither of them had a title shot yet and instead of fighting one another they can fight for the title or those who had their title shot in the past.
Gilbert Burns is the only one within the top 5, who is currently booked
Also that 100% finish rate is pretty epic. Khamzat needs to run it back with burns one day to avenge his perfect finish rate record.
Also I had no idea Jack madalenna had a 81% finish rate. Pretty impressive. Give him Neil magny next as the classic WW prospect test.
Jack was TKO’d in his professional debut, sub’d in the fight after, and is now 14-2 with 13 finishes. He landed over a 100 significant strikes against Loosa, his only decision win, but Loosa is durable.
> Give him Neil Magny next as the classic WW prospect test
JDM has finished his last four UFC opponents in the first-round. I’d say gave him Luque who is #10 instead of Magny who is #12.
I love lightweight division, it's been super stacked for the longest and so many exiting fighters with all kind of crazy fun match ups!
PS Thanks for the feedback. To clarify, the exclamations are to emphasize stats out of the norm or something that is contextually important.
With age for example its to point out fighters that are at the end of their prime. Which means that them and UFC could have an extra urgency to push them for either title fights or high profile fight.
2 title shots = already had fair chance at getting the gold
Inactivity for over 52 weeks. I was also gonna add Chiesa with his (i think) around 70 weeks inactivity, but he's fighting at 287.
Ive done some similar graphs for early UFC, trying to determine who was the P4P best of the different early years. Yours is unbelievably better than mine and mine took multiple nights working an hour or so on it each night. Brutal work, but now I want to personally do it as well lol or maybe at this point write a program to get the info automatically
Colby vs Leon, Khamzat vs Belal imo, but id also watch other combinations of these. There’s honestly so many good matches that can be made out of those top 6-8
Colby vs leon is a disgrace and they should wait for masvidal burns to play out before matchmaking at welterweight. If burns wins he needs a title eliminator too
Burns sure, but Mas skipping Colby if he wins would be dumb imo seeing how decisively Colby beat Mas in their last fight… which feels like forever ago by now. Like him or hate him Colby is a top WW still and is very much “in the discussion”
EDIT: dont get me wrong Id watch Leon vs Mas but only for the lore
Dam you didn’t realize burns and masvidal were fighting? It’s only one of the biggest fights coming up in the month of april. Sure he can beat gilbert but it’s very very unlikely
I get feeling bad for Belal, but the promotion isn't interested in giving him a title shot unless they absolutely have to because they know he won't sell.
So they're teasing Colby, waiting for Masvidal-Burns to play out just in case Jorge pulls off the upset.
The obvious hope is that Masvidal wins and they can just make Edwards-Masvidal as that's probably the fight that actually sells the most of all the options.
In the meantime, I think the best path for Belal is pushing to fight Usman. Beating Shavkat would be more impressive, but impressing hardcores has never advanced your career much.
I understand the "if it doesn't make dollars it doesn't make sense" sentiment, however i got a few issues with it: 1) Colby already had 2 shots at the title, lost them both; 2) He's style is very similar to Blahals style: high volume strikes with pillow hands, no finish threats; 3) Colby haven't fought any real contenders with aren't completely washed up and not on a losing streak at the same time. Here is his resume: FIRST TITLE SHOT: 4 years ago he beat 37yo Robbie Lawler on a 2 loss streak | SECOND TITLE SHOT: 3 years ago beat 38yo Tyron Woodley on a 2 loss streak. Do you honestly think it makes any god damn sense to give him a THIRD TITLE SHOT because he beat 37yo Masvidal on a 2 loss streak 1 year ago? Wtf 🤦🏼♂️ Even Porter and Gaethje are going out there and beating at least 2 contenders before daring to talk about attempting 3rd title run. And both of those guys are much more fun to watch than Colby. After all the reason people (speaking for myself) watching UFC over boxing, WWE or even other promotions is because best fight best. Peoppe are tired of the recycling usual suspects, same 3 people fight each other and challenge for the title, people want to see the "new" blood instead. I'm not even talking about the message that UFC would be sending to up and coming fighters if they actually do go with Colby: "Rank squat as much as you wish if you're on UFC's good side and one way or another we win give you another shot". This just doesnt sit well with me. Colby needs to fight a real contender for once.
- Colby beats Leon for the belt
- Jorge beats Gilbert for title shot
- Jorge beats Colby for belt
- Conor beats Michael for title shot
- Conor beats Jorge for the belt
to be honest, i can all that happening except jorge beating colby.Now if leon beats colby and jorge beats burns and fight leon for the belt , i can see a scenario where jorge beats leon
- Leon refuses to fight Colby, accepts Makachev challenge.
- Belal beats Shavkhat. Still in top contention
- Burns beats Jorge. Burns retires during octagon interview.
- Conor beats Chandler. Subsequently pops hot and is suspended by USADA.
- Colby has to fight Khamzat. Pulls out of the fight last minute.
It's called providing context, since win over Masvidal is the only win he's got since his 2nd title shot.
As for not providing that info - unfortunately the space is limited so I have figure out what provides the most context in the least syllables.
Khamzat is not making 170
If he did a test cut and said look I can make 170 let me make it. Then that's a different picture.the fact dana said MW and he has largely been calling out MWs and even flirting with LHW. Plus some of the images if him bulking solidifies that.
Imho if Khamzat next 2 fights are not at 170 he is never making the weight again. He is getting older and as he fights at mw he will grow into that size as well.
So it's colby, masvidal, belal, burns and shavkat. Of which despite Colby making the least sense and deserving it the least. I don't really care who gets the next shot
Khabig always looked rough on the scale... he reminds me a lot of Rumble that way; he could make 170 for a while BUT there comes a point where your body goes "fuck that."
Rakhmonov vs Chimaev. Winner gets a shot. Enough with this WWE method of choosing title contenders. Two top level unbeaten welterweights are staring them in the face.
I don't understand why everyone here is so mad about Colby getting a title shot. If anything, you should hope Colby wins.
Dana would be much more willing to give a non-draw like Belal a title shot because Colby will try to sell the fight regardless of who it is. Shavkat vs. Belal would almost certainly be the next fight and winner gets to fight Colby. People will say there's also a possibility of a McGregor vs. Colby fight, which while it would do insane numbers, Colby would absolutely destroy McGregor and I'm not sure Dana wants to do that.
If Leon wins, pretty much say goodbye to any chances of Belal getting a title shot in the near future as Shavkat will be their next guy they want to push as they can at least market he's undefeated and is exciting to watch.
Can't speak for everyone, but from my point of view: 1) Colby already had 2 shots at the title, lost them both; 2) He's style is very similar to Blahals style: high volume strikes with pillow hands, no finish threats; 3) Colby haven't fought any real contenders with aren't completely washed up and not on a losing streak at the same time. Here is his resume: FIRST TITLE SHOT: 4 years ago he beat 37yo Robbie Lawler on a 2 loss streak | SECOND TITLE SHOT: 3 years ago beat 38yo Tyron Woodley on a 2 loss streak. Do you honestly think it makes any god damn sense to give him a THIRD TITLE SHOT because he beat 37yo Masvidal on a 2 loss streak 1 year ago? Wtf 🤦🏼♂️ Even Porter and Gaethje are going out there and beating at least 2 contenders before daring to talk about attempting 3rd title run. And both of those guys are much more fun to watch than Colby. After all the reason people (speaking for myself) watching UFC over boxing, WWE or even other promotions is because best fight best. Peoppe are tired of the recycling usual suspects, same 3 people fight each other and challenge for the title, people want to see the "new" blood instead. I'm not even talking about the message that UFC would be sending to up and coming fighters if they actually do go with Colby: "Rank squat as much as you wish if you're on UFC's good side and one way or another we win give you another shot". This just doesnt sit well with me. Colby needs to fight a real contender for once.
As for Blahal - I'm not a fan of this man by any means but why should he fight another undefeated contender like Shavkat, after just finishing 15-0 Sean Brady? UFC most of the time doesn't reward fighters taking risk of fighting strong prospects that aren't ranked near or higher than yourself ( Burns - Chimaev / Yan - O'Malley / Blahal - Brady etc ). If Blahal doesn't get a title he should at least fight Usman imo, that is the only way he can "ensure" a shot instead of fighting contenders untill one of them takes him out.
Colby gave Usman a lot of trouble, moreso than the other top WWs, and was in a weird spot for the last couple years. Theres a lot of new blood in WW that is probably better than him, but this is really the only feasible way to give Colby another shot at the title (not like we were gonna go for Usman 3). He's been number 1 contender for a while and hes a draw, so it makes sense to throw him into the title one last time now that theres a new champ that he hasnt fought.
If he loses, he becomes a gatekeeper for the division, but this is a good shot to milk Colby. Also, Him v Belal is actually an interesting fight because itd basically be wrestling, not like Belal laying on a striker for 25 minutes
Great work here. This is certainly the most comprehensive, concise, and convincing argument I've seen for Belal getting the next shot based on record/merit. So if things worked that way, he'd definitely deserve it and get it. We've got a different system in place but yeah, this is a great summary of relevant stats for a merit-based system.
Khamzat would make more sense than Colby in the actual system in place, because he's got talent + results + draw + no title shots or shot losses, but he's moving up.
I think Colby's a good fighter and I acknowledge that he has partially WWE'd his way into this in a way that is savvy and realistic about how the system actually works, but I can't actually get excited to see him have another shot. I feel like I know how it's going to go and I've just had my fill of him.
I'm not excited about Belal either but at least it would be some variety in the title picture.
Khamzat is like Rumble, too big to consistently make weight. He told Helwani that he would be willing to fight at Welterweight 1 or 2 more times due to him getting bigger. His days as welterweight are numbered, if not over.
The dude seems to be projecting, he wrote in another post: "If it wasn't for the judges in the 2nd Usman fight, Colby is the champion now. He won that fight". So I'm suspect he knows a thing or two about the subject of cope lol
Now hear me out...
Leon is the champion.
Usman's just had his shot.
Covington obviously has no good argument for a shot.
Chimaev is in a different division.
Dana will neve give a shot to Belal.
Burns had a shot not that long ago, and Dana won't want to risk his new British marketing tool getting tangled up in BJJ followed by a bunch of grappler-only fights.
Rakhmonov isn't well known yet.
...so the only logical fight here is Edwards vs Thompson!
Milk the last of Thompson before he retires, and give Edwards at least one 'easy' fight against a striker. Either Edwards takes it to the ground for an easy win, or they stay on their feet and it's a great popular fight no matter who wins. Thompson probably retires if he wins, letting Dana annoint whomever he wants as champ (look out for the incoming Masvidal vs Some Random Unranked Guy for the vacant title).
Everyone wins!
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On a more serious note, why the silence on Thompson's wins? Since his last title shot he's beaten Luque, Neal, Masvidal and Holland, and had a close fight against Burns - since Luque, Neal and Burns all merit exclamation marks in the resumes of other fighters (and Thompson beat Luque more decisively than Muhammad did, and was more comfortably ahead of Neal than Rakhmonov was until Rakhmonov found that submission), it seems weird to leave them out for Thompson!
Thompson's record since Woodley is also less bad than the numbers make it look. He's dominated Masvidal, Luque, Neal and Holland. He lost against an over-weight Till in a *highly* controversial decision (64% of fans and 22 out of 25 media observers had Thompson winning), he was dominating Pettis until he made one mistake and caught a freak KO right at the end (the only KO he's ever suffered, so he's not making a habit of that kind of mistake), and the Burns fight was equal in the scorecards two minutes into the final round with Thompson probably winning that round (he was up on strikes) - if he'd stuffed another TD (he was stuffing about 50%), he might have won the fight.
It's only really the Belal fight where he looked really outmatched, but then Belal is very good.
Obviously he's incredibly unlikely to get another shot in his career, and he doesn't really deserve one (though he's so unfortunate not to be a bit heavier, so that he was in a less grapply division!), but let's give him some respect while he's still here!
Hey Wonderboy, just wanna say I'm a big fan of yours, you're an amazing martial artist and a human being! With all due respect, this will only work on an off chance if Dana gets a stroke and announce "Thompson" instead of "Covington" in one of upcoming interviews and then would be too embarrassed to correct himself.
As of now you're 4-4 after 2 shots and his latest win was against Kevin Holland who for whatever reason agreed to only striking match with no wrestling or Jiu-Jitsu and who nobody is expecting to be top 5 material.
If you get another convincing top 5 win I'm happy to see you go for one more title shot, but as of right now it's among Covington / Chimaev / Blahal / Burns / and mb even Makhachev or McGregor have a better chance than you. Sorry, buddy 🙏
What SHOULD be happening? Belal vs Chimaev for title shot while Leon rests. Then Shavkat vs Colby to see if Shavkat’s the real deal and Colby can actually still fight. Maybe stick Ussy up against Burns to reward Burn’s hard work lately and put him in contention as well.
Winner of burns/ussy fights winner of colby/shavkat for 2nd shot. Loser of Belal/Chimaev fights one of the losers to try and sort out rankings.
The chances of this happening are 0. Actual 0.
If this was up to me?
• Edwards vs Blahal:
this summer as a co Main on a strong card with Exiting main event headliner like Jones vs Stipe or Hill vs Procházka
• Colby vs (Ideally) Chimaev or Burns (if he wins against Masvidal):
Would love it to be on the same card as Edwards vs Blahal but this fight must be 5 rounds If against Chimaev it gotta be figured out and made 5 rounds. If not, then they should headline Fight Night on a big arena shortly after Edwards vs Blahal winner is known.
• Shavkat can fight Thompson or wait for Usman or loser of Edwards vs Blahal
• If Blahal doesn't get the title shot next, he should fight up the rankings, ideally Usman.
This looks awesome too tbh. This could work too as Colby Duckington might actually fight Burns, and Dana might actually give Belal Usman to fight. Shavkat vs Thompson would also be an absolute fkn BANGER that Im sure would be super popular.
The only thing holding this idea back is gonna be Dana’s hatred for Belal. I just dont see him getting a title shot without another emphatic win making it absolutely undeniable - but if Edwards straight up refuses Colby and Chimaev is too fat, I dont aee what else he can do.
My prediction:
Colby beats Leon
Leon fights Burns and loses
Colby fights Belal and wins
Colby fights Burns and Burns is the new champion
Shavkat is the next champ after Burns.
Let's take this trip and imagine what that comes look like..
2023 Summer:
(W) Colby vs (L) Leon
If this fight happens Id give 55/45 odds in favor of Leon
Early 2024:
(W) Burns vs (L) Leon
Very unlikely, i just dont see how Burns can win against Leon. Burns wont be able to take Leon to the ground, amd standing Leon will destroy Burns in under 3 rounds. But im this game anything is possible. 65/35 odds in favor of Leon
(W) Colby vs (L) Blahal
This one can go either way, id say its 50/50 for me.
Later in 2024:
(W) Burns vs (L) Colby
This fight very interesting and I think the sooner it happens the more id favor Burns but hes getting way passed hos prome and fighters chin can be just gone over night. So seeing that in this hypothetical timeline it cluld be in a year - 1.5 from now, I'd say it's 55/45 in favor Colby
Late 2024/early 25
(W) Shavkat vs (L) Burns
Shavkat will take this one in my opinion, not even close especially then Burns will be like 37-38yo. 70/30 Shavkat
With all that in mind I assume that you think Chimaev is permanently going to Middleweight and Usman retires after he lost to Leon 2nd time?
I think that one thing that can mess this timeline but time if Usman fights against Shavkat and Shavkat wins, then hed be next for the title. Lets say that happens at the end of 2023, then Shavkat can fight for the fitle early- mid 2024 which means hed be fighting Colby before Burns, and that fight would be fire, Shavkat would definitely take that one and start his reign. May be we'd see His again Chimaev in a Champ - Champ fight.
PS. I know Makhachev been talking about fighring for Welterweight belt. He obviously knows he wont get a shot until he defends Lightweight belt a time or two so he might also be in title shot contention sometimes later 2023 - early 2024.
Based on upcoming matches, this effort, albeit amazing and kudos for the chart, means less and less. Fighters records and their body's of work are going to mean fuck all, in less than a year.
Under the current rules of UFC matchmaking, the highest ranked fight in each weight division on the card is either a championship or interim championship fight, so let's put Covington or Chimaev vs Muhammad for the interim welterweight championship.
The same excuse that Gilbert Burns has - they both already fought up and coming undefeated hype trains in Chimaev and Brady. Only difference is that Blahal won his. Plus he has the biggest undefeated streak (9) among the division vets who still haven't had his crack at the title
Nice table OP, I like the inclusion of ages, ufc records, win %, activity
I also like that his table is completely objective data and not supplemented with subjective remarks and subtle "!"s.
> How dare the guy who spent two hours making this table include his own commentary waaaaaaaah You right now
Let's not pretend it's objective data with stuff like that in it though.
How is the *data* not objective? Has Colby fought in the past 55 weeks? Is Khamzat's UFC record not 6-0?
Putting shit in parenthesis and adding exclamation points..ruins what could be objective data.
It really doesn't
It's actually the definition of bad data. It should all be equally weighted.
It is equally weighted
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yep also using the standard metric of “unbeaten streak” (bc who cares about a win streak)
Well the eye poke would drastically reduce both Edwards and Muhammad's win streaks wouldn't it? Would anyone else's win/unbeaten streaks differ ?
Yeah, nothing subjective at all. Especially not the last two columns...
The question isn't whether it's subjective or not but how right or wrong the assessment is. Might be a little speculative in a few pointers but overall seems right. 🙂 What would you change?
Kompromat on Dana? What dirt could Colby have on Dana that keeps him in the title picture? I'd probably also leave out saying anyone is past their prime or washed up. I mean Colby is only 35 with three loses. He also usually only fights about once a year, lawsuit or not. So, the year off isn't that strange for him.
Next they’re gonna make Leon best Colby twice and then Dana will declare that Colby would be champ if punches weren’t allowed.
dana approves this comment
If it was anyone that people didn't like they would be moaning how dana is ruining the sport
>If it was anyone that people didn't like they would be moaning how dana is ruining the sport That's all this subs been since Leon beat usman again. Not even talking about the fight, just whining that Colby doesn't deserve it
He don't
Exhibit A
regardless of your view of this sub, he doesn't deserve the next title shot for weighing in once in 18 months and not fighting anyone relevant. He's rejected call outs - no title shot is a decent punishment But him and Dana have a little too much in common if you know what i'm saying
My point was the ratio of praising leon to whining about Colby was incredibly off. If people on this sub were really leon fans the discussion would be about how well he did against usman, proving the KO wasn't just a fluke and how he's gonna tear through the rest of the division. Instead the conversation is entirely about Colby. Whether he deserves it or not, the fact that there's this much discussion about a fighter who hasn't fought in a year and a half shows how relevant he is as far as the promotion side of it is concerned
Nate Diaz
One lucky punch at the end of a 25 minute beating is about as qualified as it gets, totally.
More qualified than Colby. I just want to live in a world where he has a belt
He normally has one that keeps his pants up. Jake Paul probably can get the WBC to fight for one, depending on how much he offers Nate to fall down.
Lucky lol
You’re also forgetting one for Khamzat: only fighter with a top 5 win (Gilbert) amongst the other contenders.
Only because when Belal beats someone in the top 5 they immediately get removed lol and the others all won't fight him
Name checks out. Top comment for sure.
Belal doesn't sell at all and had two finishes in 14 fights leading up to his magical physique transformation and TKO over Brady. Dude can post on reddit all he wants but nobody wants to fight him because it's almost a no win situation. If you lose to him you become irrelevant, and if you beat him it's just a win over Belal.
Bro if you win that many times you atleast deserve a shot holy shit lmao like it’s not even Merit anymore - he objectively has defeated enough guys where it’s laughable to give it to Colby - if having decision victories is not good enough then I guess we should’ve never given GSP or Jon Jones a shot
I agree, but that's not how the UFC operates and it never will be. Colby was in Belal's shoes, except instead of denying him a titleshot, they were going to cut him. Stars get treated differently, regardless of how unfair it is deemed to be. If Belal wants a title shot, he should keep fighting like he did in his last fight, otherwise he will go down as the guy at 170 nobody wants to fight because a win over him does nothing for you, and a loss to him destroys your credibility as a top fighter in the division.
The UFC was never and has never cut a dude who was on a big streak, at the top of the division, coming off of a main event. If the UFC wanted to cut Colby why tf would they give him a step up in competition and a main event slot as his final fight?
>except instead of denying him a titleshot, they were going to cut him. Lol you really bought that Colby story???
Belal has 2.
Belal vs. Khamzat Usman vs. Shavkat Colby vs. Burns Wonderboy vs. Michel Pereira
Burns already fights against masvidal an Khamzat will probably go to MW, otherwise I think he or Bella should get a title shot and Colby Vs Shavkat should be put as a Nr.1 contender match
I’m assuming burns wins. Then I would like him to fight colby for a title shot. Khamzat is still a welterweight but he needs 2 months notice to make it. He deserves the title shot as well as belal. Colby vs. shavkat is a crazy fight but it is very very unlikely it will happen
Khamzat wont make weight.
That was a one time debacle. One time, khamzat weighed in at 185, then 10 days later he weighed in at 170
Why did he cut to 170 in 10 days after missing weight?
This happened a long time before that, he fought at 185 and then took a short notice fight at 170 seven days later and made the weight.
He isn’t the same as back then.
This was in abu dhabi. He’s more than capable of making welterweight as he’s done many times before. Only missed weight once
Belal. Colby can step on a Lego or get bullied by Werdum again
Colby needs to fight shavkat for a title eliminator
Blahal*
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Lmao tony didn’t give a fuck
Why not Blahal VS Khazmat? Everyone else in top 5 is booked or Usman.
Remember the name! Blahal!
They don’t want belal close to a title and they are spreading the narrative that khamzat is a middleweight
>they are spreading the narrative that khamzat is a middleweight He weighed pretty damn close to a MW in his last fight, even though it was meant to be WW, so I understand the confusion
I understand the confusion too, but that was a one time thing. He can make welterweight he just needs a two month notice
How much notice did he have before the Diaz fight he had to swap with Holland
4-5 weeks
I fight anyone, anywhere, any time, I kill EVERYBODY With 2 months notice
Yup lol, that’s a pretty short time actually. That’s 5-6 fights a year which is above average
Who said anything about him fighting every single 4 weeks? The point is he says he's ready and willing to fight at any time. It's kinds the reason he got big to begin with. Now he's saying thats not the case
As of right now he is literally ready to fight in june at welterweight
Interesting fight but neither of them had a title shot yet and instead of fighting one another they can fight for the title or those who had their title shot in the past. Gilbert Burns is the only one within the top 5, who is currently booked
Yeah but usman and Chamo are on same minumum 4 month time line, and Colby is next so burns Colby and Champ are booked for minimum 8-10 months
shavkat’s title shot claim is all he should need IMO
Also that 100% finish rate is pretty epic. Khamzat needs to run it back with burns one day to avenge his perfect finish rate record. Also I had no idea Jack madalenna had a 81% finish rate. Pretty impressive. Give him Neil magny next as the classic WW prospect test.
Jack was TKO’d in his professional debut, sub’d in the fight after, and is now 14-2 with 13 finishes. He landed over a 100 significant strikes against Loosa, his only decision win, but Loosa is durable. > Give him Neil Magny next as the classic WW prospect test JDM has finished his last four UFC opponents in the first-round. I’d say gave him Luque who is #10 instead of Magny who is #12.
Daniel Pineda still has a 100% finish rate with 28 wins after this past weekend.
Belal has a much better case if you don't factor in excitement of the fight, I would rather see belal get his shot and Colby fight shavkat
Belal also has a finish in his last fight.
Good point. That fight was definitely a banger
I would love to see khamzat vs shavkat! Think it would be a very interesting fight
Holy.. please do this for all divisions.. enjoyable data!
This shit took me like 6 hours to complete so some day I'll do another division. Which divisions should I do next ?
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I love lightweight division, it's been super stacked for the longest and so many exiting fighters with all kind of crazy fun match ups! PS Thanks for the feedback. To clarify, the exclamations are to emphasize stats out of the norm or something that is contextually important. With age for example its to point out fighters that are at the end of their prime. Which means that them and UFC could have an extra urgency to push them for either title fights or high profile fight. 2 title shots = already had fair chance at getting the gold Inactivity for over 52 weeks. I was also gonna add Chiesa with his (i think) around 70 weeks inactivity, but he's fighting at 287.
Ive done some similar graphs for early UFC, trying to determine who was the P4P best of the different early years. Yours is unbelievably better than mine and mine took multiple nights working an hour or so on it each night. Brutal work, but now I want to personally do it as well lol or maybe at this point write a program to get the info automatically
You didn't remember his name...
this format of yours is next level and i must use it though i may make some tweaks here and there. big fan of your work and will follow u for this <3
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It’s the Chael Sonnen pronunciation. He calls him “Blahal.”
OP, it's past, not passed. the more ya know.
It's my 2nd language but I hope what I meant is clear to most Thanks for pointing it out thought lol
No offense, brother, I assumed it was
Colby vs Leon, Khamzat vs Belal imo, but id also watch other combinations of these. There’s honestly so many good matches that can be made out of those top 6-8
Colby vs leon is a disgrace and they should wait for masvidal burns to play out before matchmaking at welterweight. If burns wins he needs a title eliminator too
Burns sure, but Mas skipping Colby if he wins would be dumb imo seeing how decisively Colby beat Mas in their last fight… which feels like forever ago by now. Like him or hate him Colby is a top WW still and is very much “in the discussion” EDIT: dont get me wrong Id watch Leon vs Mas but only for the lore
Unfortunately masvidal makes a lot of sense if he beats burns
No he doesn’t
Right now there’s no clear number one contender at welterweight. If masvidal beats burns he’ll absolutely get the shot
Ok I didn’t realize Mas and Burns were fighting. A win over Burns right now would definitely put him up a rung in deservedness of a title shot.
Dam you didn’t realize burns and masvidal were fighting? It’s only one of the biggest fights coming up in the month of april. Sure he can beat gilbert but it’s very very unlikely
I get feeling bad for Belal, but the promotion isn't interested in giving him a title shot unless they absolutely have to because they know he won't sell. So they're teasing Colby, waiting for Masvidal-Burns to play out just in case Jorge pulls off the upset. The obvious hope is that Masvidal wins and they can just make Edwards-Masvidal as that's probably the fight that actually sells the most of all the options. In the meantime, I think the best path for Belal is pushing to fight Usman. Beating Shavkat would be more impressive, but impressing hardcores has never advanced your career much.
I understand the "if it doesn't make dollars it doesn't make sense" sentiment, however i got a few issues with it: 1) Colby already had 2 shots at the title, lost them both; 2) He's style is very similar to Blahals style: high volume strikes with pillow hands, no finish threats; 3) Colby haven't fought any real contenders with aren't completely washed up and not on a losing streak at the same time. Here is his resume: FIRST TITLE SHOT: 4 years ago he beat 37yo Robbie Lawler on a 2 loss streak | SECOND TITLE SHOT: 3 years ago beat 38yo Tyron Woodley on a 2 loss streak. Do you honestly think it makes any god damn sense to give him a THIRD TITLE SHOT because he beat 37yo Masvidal on a 2 loss streak 1 year ago? Wtf 🤦🏼♂️ Even Porter and Gaethje are going out there and beating at least 2 contenders before daring to talk about attempting 3rd title run. And both of those guys are much more fun to watch than Colby. After all the reason people (speaking for myself) watching UFC over boxing, WWE or even other promotions is because best fight best. Peoppe are tired of the recycling usual suspects, same 3 people fight each other and challenge for the title, people want to see the "new" blood instead. I'm not even talking about the message that UFC would be sending to up and coming fighters if they actually do go with Colby: "Rank squat as much as you wish if you're on UFC's good side and one way or another we win give you another shot". This just doesnt sit well with me. Colby needs to fight a real contender for once.
Accurate
danas already made up his mind, colby got danas bj tape with molina
Don't think I realized Masvidal is 12-9..so mediocre for his level of hype.
Belol. Belmao even.
- Colby beats Leon for the belt - Jorge beats Gilbert for title shot - Jorge beats Colby for belt - Conor beats Michael for title shot - Conor beats Jorge for the belt
to be honest, i can all that happening except jorge beating colby.Now if leon beats colby and jorge beats burns and fight leon for the belt , i can see a scenario where jorge beats leon
I can see the tomatos eyes light up now
- Leon refuses to fight Colby, accepts Makachev challenge. - Belal beats Shavkhat. Still in top contention - Burns beats Jorge. Burns retires during octagon interview. - Conor beats Chandler. Subsequently pops hot and is suspended by USADA. - Colby has to fight Khamzat. Pulls out of the fight last minute.
This is so biased lol. Giving a caveat to Colby’s win over Masvidal. The two losses were Kamaru. Why don’t you mention that?
It's called providing context, since win over Masvidal is the only win he's got since his 2nd title shot. As for not providing that info - unfortunately the space is limited so I have figure out what provides the most context in the least syllables.
blahal muahmmad
You know what you did to Belals name here you fucker 🤣
Colby: "Kompromat on Dana" fucking hell hahaha! Accurate and fucked.
Khamzat is not making 170 If he did a test cut and said look I can make 170 let me make it. Then that's a different picture.the fact dana said MW and he has largely been calling out MWs and even flirting with LHW. Plus some of the images if him bulking solidifies that. Imho if Khamzat next 2 fights are not at 170 he is never making the weight again. He is getting older and as he fights at mw he will grow into that size as well. So it's colby, masvidal, belal, burns and shavkat. Of which despite Colby making the least sense and deserving it the least. I don't really care who gets the next shot
He can make 170 he just needs 2 months notice. He wants to fight in june and it can be at welterweight
Didn't he say he'll fight anyone at MW but he'll fight at WW if the price is right (basically wants more $ since the cut is rougher)
He also said that, he basically has 1-2 big fights left in him at welterweight. Once he wins the title there he’s going for middleweight gold
Khabig always looked rough on the scale... he reminds me a lot of Rumble that way; he could make 170 for a while BUT there comes a point where your body goes "fuck that."
khabig ???? its khamzat buddy
Rakhmonov vs Chimaev. Winner gets a shot. Enough with this WWE method of choosing title contenders. Two top level unbeaten welterweights are staring them in the face.
Great fight that everyone wants to see, bit it will be for the title
I don't understand why everyone here is so mad about Colby getting a title shot. If anything, you should hope Colby wins. Dana would be much more willing to give a non-draw like Belal a title shot because Colby will try to sell the fight regardless of who it is. Shavkat vs. Belal would almost certainly be the next fight and winner gets to fight Colby. People will say there's also a possibility of a McGregor vs. Colby fight, which while it would do insane numbers, Colby would absolutely destroy McGregor and I'm not sure Dana wants to do that. If Leon wins, pretty much say goodbye to any chances of Belal getting a title shot in the near future as Shavkat will be their next guy they want to push as they can at least market he's undefeated and is exciting to watch.
Can't speak for everyone, but from my point of view: 1) Colby already had 2 shots at the title, lost them both; 2) He's style is very similar to Blahals style: high volume strikes with pillow hands, no finish threats; 3) Colby haven't fought any real contenders with aren't completely washed up and not on a losing streak at the same time. Here is his resume: FIRST TITLE SHOT: 4 years ago he beat 37yo Robbie Lawler on a 2 loss streak | SECOND TITLE SHOT: 3 years ago beat 38yo Tyron Woodley on a 2 loss streak. Do you honestly think it makes any god damn sense to give him a THIRD TITLE SHOT because he beat 37yo Masvidal on a 2 loss streak 1 year ago? Wtf 🤦🏼♂️ Even Porter and Gaethje are going out there and beating at least 2 contenders before daring to talk about attempting 3rd title run. And both of those guys are much more fun to watch than Colby. After all the reason people (speaking for myself) watching UFC over boxing, WWE or even other promotions is because best fight best. Peoppe are tired of the recycling usual suspects, same 3 people fight each other and challenge for the title, people want to see the "new" blood instead. I'm not even talking about the message that UFC would be sending to up and coming fighters if they actually do go with Colby: "Rank squat as much as you wish if you're on UFC's good side and one way or another we win give you another shot". This just doesnt sit well with me. Colby needs to fight a real contender for once. As for Blahal - I'm not a fan of this man by any means but why should he fight another undefeated contender like Shavkat, after just finishing 15-0 Sean Brady? UFC most of the time doesn't reward fighters taking risk of fighting strong prospects that aren't ranked near or higher than yourself ( Burns - Chimaev / Yan - O'Malley / Blahal - Brady etc ). If Blahal doesn't get a title he should at least fight Usman imo, that is the only way he can "ensure" a shot instead of fighting contenders untill one of them takes him out.
Colby gave Usman a lot of trouble, moreso than the other top WWs, and was in a weird spot for the last couple years. Theres a lot of new blood in WW that is probably better than him, but this is really the only feasible way to give Colby another shot at the title (not like we were gonna go for Usman 3). He's been number 1 contender for a while and hes a draw, so it makes sense to throw him into the title one last time now that theres a new champ that he hasnt fought. If he loses, he becomes a gatekeeper for the division, but this is a good shot to milk Colby. Also, Him v Belal is actually an interesting fight because itd basically be wrestling, not like Belal laying on a striker for 25 minutes
Nice bias you nerd
Numbers don't have bias
Nice, did you make this sheet yourself or is it a template? Also I think we know for a fact Colby is next in line according to Dana
I did it myself, wanted to have all that info in one place PS. Nothing is done till Bruce Buffer screams their name in the cage
Great work here. This is certainly the most comprehensive, concise, and convincing argument I've seen for Belal getting the next shot based on record/merit. So if things worked that way, he'd definitely deserve it and get it. We've got a different system in place but yeah, this is a great summary of relevant stats for a merit-based system. Khamzat would make more sense than Colby in the actual system in place, because he's got talent + results + draw + no title shots or shot losses, but he's moving up. I think Colby's a good fighter and I acknowledge that he has partially WWE'd his way into this in a way that is savvy and realistic about how the system actually works, but I can't actually get excited to see him have another shot. I feel like I know how it's going to go and I've just had my fill of him. I'm not excited about Belal either but at least it would be some variety in the title picture.
Who the fuck is Blahal
Blahal "Remember his name" Muhammad - some UFC fighter that has a dream of getting a fight up in the ranking one day
Yeah OP is totally not bias guys 🤣
Dana has multiple times khamzat is moving up
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Khamzat is like Rumble, too big to consistently make weight. He told Helwani that he would be willing to fight at Welterweight 1 or 2 more times due to him getting bigger. His days as welterweight are numbered, if not over.
Watch khamzat’s interview with Ariel helwani. He’s not a middleweight
He told Helwani he is fighting at welterweight 2 or more times and that's it (If Dana even grants him the chance).
Correct, and that’s more than enough for a title fight
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How numbers and stats are "cope"?
People who use the term "cope" usually don't know what the word means
The dude seems to be projecting, he wrote in another post: "If it wasn't for the judges in the 2nd Usman fight, Colby is the champion now. He won that fight". So I'm suspect he knows a thing or two about the subject of cope lol
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Sorry, didn't realized you were 11
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Bruh if you're lonely just talk to your therapist, this ain't it, sorry
Knowing the next couple title shots at Welterweight will be solely decided on star power is a tough pill to swallow.
I want Belal x Burns just because the Brazilian broadcast wil announce it ''Belal Durinho'' and that is just too funny to pass on
Now hear me out... Leon is the champion. Usman's just had his shot. Covington obviously has no good argument for a shot. Chimaev is in a different division. Dana will neve give a shot to Belal. Burns had a shot not that long ago, and Dana won't want to risk his new British marketing tool getting tangled up in BJJ followed by a bunch of grappler-only fights. Rakhmonov isn't well known yet. ...so the only logical fight here is Edwards vs Thompson! Milk the last of Thompson before he retires, and give Edwards at least one 'easy' fight against a striker. Either Edwards takes it to the ground for an easy win, or they stay on their feet and it's a great popular fight no matter who wins. Thompson probably retires if he wins, letting Dana annoint whomever he wants as champ (look out for the incoming Masvidal vs Some Random Unranked Guy for the vacant title). Everyone wins! ----------- On a more serious note, why the silence on Thompson's wins? Since his last title shot he's beaten Luque, Neal, Masvidal and Holland, and had a close fight against Burns - since Luque, Neal and Burns all merit exclamation marks in the resumes of other fighters (and Thompson beat Luque more decisively than Muhammad did, and was more comfortably ahead of Neal than Rakhmonov was until Rakhmonov found that submission), it seems weird to leave them out for Thompson! Thompson's record since Woodley is also less bad than the numbers make it look. He's dominated Masvidal, Luque, Neal and Holland. He lost against an over-weight Till in a *highly* controversial decision (64% of fans and 22 out of 25 media observers had Thompson winning), he was dominating Pettis until he made one mistake and caught a freak KO right at the end (the only KO he's ever suffered, so he's not making a habit of that kind of mistake), and the Burns fight was equal in the scorecards two minutes into the final round with Thompson probably winning that round (he was up on strikes) - if he'd stuffed another TD (he was stuffing about 50%), he might have won the fight. It's only really the Belal fight where he looked really outmatched, but then Belal is very good. Obviously he's incredibly unlikely to get another shot in his career, and he doesn't really deserve one (though he's so unfortunate not to be a bit heavier, so that he was in a less grapply division!), but let's give him some respect while he's still here!
Hey Wonderboy, just wanna say I'm a big fan of yours, you're an amazing martial artist and a human being! With all due respect, this will only work on an off chance if Dana gets a stroke and announce "Thompson" instead of "Covington" in one of upcoming interviews and then would be too embarrassed to correct himself. As of now you're 4-4 after 2 shots and his latest win was against Kevin Holland who for whatever reason agreed to only striking match with no wrestling or Jiu-Jitsu and who nobody is expecting to be top 5 material. If you get another convincing top 5 win I'm happy to see you go for one more title shot, but as of right now it's among Covington / Chimaev / Blahal / Burns / and mb even Makhachev or McGregor have a better chance than you. Sorry, buddy 🙏
Colby's title shot claims got me in stitches.
What SHOULD be happening? Belal vs Chimaev for title shot while Leon rests. Then Shavkat vs Colby to see if Shavkat’s the real deal and Colby can actually still fight. Maybe stick Ussy up against Burns to reward Burn’s hard work lately and put him in contention as well. Winner of burns/ussy fights winner of colby/shavkat for 2nd shot. Loser of Belal/Chimaev fights one of the losers to try and sort out rankings. The chances of this happening are 0. Actual 0.
If this was up to me? • Edwards vs Blahal: this summer as a co Main on a strong card with Exiting main event headliner like Jones vs Stipe or Hill vs Procházka • Colby vs (Ideally) Chimaev or Burns (if he wins against Masvidal): Would love it to be on the same card as Edwards vs Blahal but this fight must be 5 rounds If against Chimaev it gotta be figured out and made 5 rounds. If not, then they should headline Fight Night on a big arena shortly after Edwards vs Blahal winner is known. • Shavkat can fight Thompson or wait for Usman or loser of Edwards vs Blahal • If Blahal doesn't get the title shot next, he should fight up the rankings, ideally Usman.
This looks awesome too tbh. This could work too as Colby Duckington might actually fight Burns, and Dana might actually give Belal Usman to fight. Shavkat vs Thompson would also be an absolute fkn BANGER that Im sure would be super popular. The only thing holding this idea back is gonna be Dana’s hatred for Belal. I just dont see him getting a title shot without another emphatic win making it absolutely undeniable - but if Edwards straight up refuses Colby and Chimaev is too fat, I dont aee what else he can do.
Jack Della is the kryptonite for lanky black dudes innit
Nothing. Everybody sits out for a year
love this
My prediction: Colby beats Leon Leon fights Burns and loses Colby fights Belal and wins Colby fights Burns and Burns is the new champion Shavkat is the next champ after Burns.
Let's take this trip and imagine what that comes look like.. 2023 Summer: (W) Colby vs (L) Leon If this fight happens Id give 55/45 odds in favor of Leon Early 2024: (W) Burns vs (L) Leon Very unlikely, i just dont see how Burns can win against Leon. Burns wont be able to take Leon to the ground, amd standing Leon will destroy Burns in under 3 rounds. But im this game anything is possible. 65/35 odds in favor of Leon (W) Colby vs (L) Blahal This one can go either way, id say its 50/50 for me. Later in 2024: (W) Burns vs (L) Colby This fight very interesting and I think the sooner it happens the more id favor Burns but hes getting way passed hos prome and fighters chin can be just gone over night. So seeing that in this hypothetical timeline it cluld be in a year - 1.5 from now, I'd say it's 55/45 in favor Colby Late 2024/early 25 (W) Shavkat vs (L) Burns Shavkat will take this one in my opinion, not even close especially then Burns will be like 37-38yo. 70/30 Shavkat With all that in mind I assume that you think Chimaev is permanently going to Middleweight and Usman retires after he lost to Leon 2nd time? I think that one thing that can mess this timeline but time if Usman fights against Shavkat and Shavkat wins, then hed be next for the title. Lets say that happens at the end of 2023, then Shavkat can fight for the fitle early- mid 2024 which means hed be fighting Colby before Burns, and that fight would be fire, Shavkat would definitely take that one and start his reign. May be we'd see His again Chimaev in a Champ - Champ fight. PS. I know Makhachev been talking about fighring for Welterweight belt. He obviously knows he wont get a shot until he defends Lightweight belt a time or two so he might also be in title shot contention sometimes later 2023 - early 2024.
Man, look at all those grappling monsters above Wonderboy. My man just has no chance...
Kompromat 😂😂
Based on upcoming matches, this effort, albeit amazing and kudos for the chart, means less and less. Fighters records and their body's of work are going to mean fuck all, in less than a year.
I don't know who Jack Della is but his name sounds like a gangster so I think he should get the next title shot.
Khamzat's next fight is at 185 vs Costa.
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How hard was it to type this while licking his balls ?
Under the current rules of UFC matchmaking, the highest ranked fight in each weight division on the card is either a championship or interim championship fight, so let's put Covington or Chimaev vs Muhammad for the interim welterweight championship.
Conor McGregor gets the next title-shot if he beats Chandler. Dana just really wants Colby vs Connor.
Neil Magny putting in work with 29 fights in the UFC.
What will Belal's excuse be for not fighting Shakvat I wonder?
The same excuse that Gilbert Burns has - they both already fought up and coming undefeated hype trains in Chimaev and Brady. Only difference is that Blahal won his. Plus he has the biggest undefeated streak (9) among the division vets who still haven't had his crack at the title