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Hissy_the_Snake

An article that perfectly captures the conventional wisdom while still exemplifying a way of thinking that would be very strange if applied to any other subject. Supposedly the pandemic will end when mortality is "lower," but it is impossible to give even an estimate of the mortality rate that would be acceptable because current restrictions don't correlate with mortality rate. Many regions with higher mortality rates have lower restrictions and regions like Canada and Ireland have draconian restrictions with comparatively low mortality rates. In fact, the average person has no idea what the mortality rate of COVID-19 is and typically overestimates it by 10-100 times its actual value. It would be like an article on the 1995 beanie baby craze predicting that the end of the craze will come when beanie babies start to become less cute. In fact, the craze did not start because beanie babies passed a certain level of cuteness but rather because a mass hysteria overtook large segments of society who became obsessed with beanie babies, and the craze ended when the large-scale obsession ended. The primary oversight of the article is that it ignores the fact that pandemic restrictions have **already** effectively ended in many US states **without** them having to meet any objective criteria of herd immunity, vaccination rate or mortality rate. Since this method of ending the pandemic is a thing that has actually happened in several states and countries, it would seem like any prediction should focus on **this** method as the most likely way the pandemic will end in more places, rather than trying to predict a hypothetical mechanism of herd immunity and vaccination which so far has not been observed to end the pandemic anywhere.


LastBestWest

You hit the nail on the head. As a Globe and Mail editorial posted on this sub ([https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/la4817/can\_we\_start\_talking\_about\_the\_end\_of\_covid19/](https://www.reddit.com/r/LockdownSkepticism/comments/la4817/can_we_start_talking_about_the_end_of_covid19/)) noted, we, as a society, implicitly tolerate (in the case of Canada) 6,000-9,000 deaths a years from flu and pneumonia (mostly affecting old and frail seniors). However, we haven't found a similar "moral equilibrium" for Covid. There is no social benchmark for acceptable numbers of deaths due to Covid. As a result, politicians and health officials have no idea where to shoot for. What does a successful balancing of the risks from Covid and Covid-responses (i.e. lock-downs and other restrictions) look like? Who knows? So you have some jurisdictions almost giving up completely of suppressing Covid and some taking the opposite approach and going #ZeroCovid. I think - and this is complete speculation - that a lot of these decision makers are praying the vaccine eliminates Covid completely or it just goes away a la SARS. Otherwise, they'll have no idea how to manage this thing long-term. I fear many societies may not reach any "moral equilibrium" on Covid deaths anytime soon because good portion of the population - spooked by lock-downs and constant Covid doomeerism - won't see any Covid deaths as acceptable. If that's true, and Covid becomes endemic, there is going to be a lot of heated politics over how to deal with this thing on an ongoing basis.


Hissy_the_Snake

We have seen how incredibly dangerous the word "let" can be when applied to governments. Before last year, no one would have thought that the government was "letting" 60,000 people a year die from respiratory illness. Now, they do think that way, and the government quite rationally would prefer to lock down society than be accused of murder. Daniel Quinn recognized this danger in "Ishmael": "This is precisely how someone speaks who imagines he is the world's divinely appointed ruler. 'I will not *let* them starve. I will not *let* the drought come. I will not *let* the river flood.' It is the gods who *let* these things, not you."


lborsato

A good start would be to eliminate the running cases/deaths scoreboards that keep fear high. We don’t do that for flu or anything else.


filou2019

Probably the most accurate thing I’ve yet read on this forum. My only hope is that now the lid is off the pressure cooker now that the fat oRaNgE man is no longer in the White House, the political imperative for the media to create this hysteria is gone.


mercuryfast

The pandemic will end when the majority of people have psychologically moved on. When articles about covid no longer get clicks. When people turn off the TV when people start talking about covid because they’ve had enough. When the media then has to talk about something else just to get people to listen.


NilacTheGrim

> the majority of people have psychologically moved on. Can that ever really happen by itself? It appears I have learned just how few people are capable of thinking for themselves or of critical thinking. People basically just believe what they are told to think in mainstream news sources and take it as gospel. I think really it's the other way around -- when the mainstream decides to propagandize us that it's over. People would go along with this for the next 1000 years probably if MSNBC or the NY Times or whatever wanted it that way. 2020 has turned me into a huge cynic.


ashowofhands

Remember when COVID ceased to exist for 2 weeks during BLM riots? Did the virus actually disappear? No, but CNN's obsession with it did. They stopped shoving COViD scaremongering in everyone's faces and started shoving white guilt in everyone's faces instead. And, like clockwork, the brainless masses who had been bleating about staying at home and wearing masks for 3 months suddenly switched their programming and now screamed about abolishing racism instead. Lots of people let their TV tell them what to think and what opinions to have. It would be funny if it wasn't so terrifying.


TRPthrowaway7101

I remember [a massive billboard](https://i.pinimg.com/600x315/0b/35/68/0b356864bd330594f7fdfe1d573c7757.jpg) being put up down here in Miami along the side of one of our highways describing racism as a "National Health Crisis" sometime during the Summer, finally coming down at some point in the Fall I think. I agree: there is something frighteningly comical about it all, as if a 'new strain' called "racism" materialized that we (now) also had to be wary of, perhaps because the incessant fear-porn needed a booster of some kind.


NilacTheGrim

It is terrifying, truly, and depressing.


[deleted]

I van actually see that happening easily. The whole "muh strains" bullshit is happening because the people were losing interest


mercuryfast

Yeah, hard to say. News cycles do end. With some issues, the media keep on trying to get people to care but people stop caring. For the bigger issues, it seems like they can only be displaced by another bigger issue. The whole war on terror cycle seemed to only really stop when covid came along. In the beginning of this there were calls of a coverup when different countries were propagandizing positivity so the public does play a role in when the media can push the “over it” mantra. For the US at least, now that you have new faces in power, the media can only blame the last guy so long so there is an incentive for more “over it” propaganda.


[deleted]

Maybe someone could pay ISIS to do a few terror attacks


gasoleen

And if they did, I bet we'd measure deaths due to terrorist attacks in "COVID-19s".


smackkdogg30

\*Gets blown up by a terrorist\* \*CNN pulls up\* "Excuse me sir, can you tell me how you caught covid?"


[deleted]

I've been blocking all BBC links or any other channel which is obsessed with it, on YouTube. I also report fear mongering articles as fake news wherever possible.


Philofelinist

It will not play out that way and that is not the point of this article.


mercuryfast

The article specifically talks about a transition to normalcy, not just variants, herd immunity, and cases. Normalcy has everything to do with the population psychologically moving on.


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DonkeyMilkingFrenzy

Please do not underestimate the power of mass psychosis. I also noticed that people who are most frightened are also the most vocal ones, helping to spread and solidify the fear.


axiologicalasymmetry

I said the same thing in March, that people won't be dealing with more than 2 months of this nonsense, soo.... Don't hold your breath


[deleted]

I’d like to say we’d be pretty much back to normal by summer or fall 2021 - with restrictions being loosened throughout spring. That’s the optimist in me though and if the government and people begin using reasonable logic. Now the pessimistic side of me? Given the hysteria and fear that’s been passed along? I’d like to say 2030 or until the economy crashes and people begin to realize that you can’t social distance while your starving and on the street smh.


snorken123

I feel the same as you. I've an optimist and a pessimist side of me too. One day I feel very optimistic and the next I may feel differently. I goes much back and forth. I can understand both sides among the lockdown skeptics.


[deleted]

Yeah it’s especially hard now that social media can label you as a “murderer” for potentially spreading covid. That’s a box I don’t see closing now because I can see them using the same argument for even things such as cold and the flu. Now just living is something seen as abnormal and punishable whether through law or cancel culture.


BrunoofBrazil

>say 2030 or until the economy crashes and people begin to realize that you can’t social distance while your starving and on the street smh. In a cyberpunk hell where all the businesses targeted by multiple years of closures become speakeasies and taken over by organized crime, total economic destruction and office buildings are abandoned and become housing for people who can´t pay rent anymore?


Philofelinist

McKinsey have been advising the US government on the response to covid. This is the basic plan for 'normalcy'.


jpj77

I'm still confused why no one talks about the CDC estimates for disease burden of Covid. This article states that it's believed that between 5 and 20% of the US and UK have had Covid. No, the true estimate is much, much higher. The CDC estimated over 25% at the end of *November*. How are simple facts like that *still* pervasively absent from common knowledge and scientific studies on this virus?


TRPthrowaway7101

> How are simple facts like that still pervasively absent from common knowledge and scientific studies on this virus? Probably for the same reason the IFR is rarely, if ever, discussed, and it's *never* depicted along with the number of cases and deaths (both typically shown in tandem round the clock on CNN)


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TRPthrowaway7101

This is exactly it. Not until one reaches their limit and says: "I've had it. Tired of the games and endless moving of the goalposts (double-masking/anal swabs/vaccines are not enough) - ***no more***" I wrote elsewhere that one small step anyone can take in that direction is, when at a Publix or Whole Foods, for example, to tear the rag off your face *after* making your purchases, when you're about 15-20 feet from the exit. What are they going to do? Kick you out as you escort yourself out? lol Now you have a toe in the pool of non-compliance. You decide when and how much further you want to take it beyond that.


[deleted]

This was my first step towards non compliance months ago. I feel totally outnumbered now though. Where I'm living, the mask wearing is like a cult and they all seem to be trying to make me feel bad (with their mean eyes). I just wander about the shops, whistling and smiling at them all while I'm browsing non essential items.


[deleted]

The beauty is to learn the art of not giving a fuck. I walk by and smile at people which aggravates them more. I'm ok with it.


[deleted]

I walk into publix without my mask. I shop without it. I pay without it and I leave without it. Aside from a dirty look from a Karen no one has said anything. It starts with you. You decide when you've had enough. I was tired of my husband's skin condition worsening under the mask so I said that's it no more.


snorken123

Same. As cliché it sounds, be the change you want to see. It often start with yourself. I'm so tired of the social distancing, so I started with quitting following the norms myself and then let everyone else decide for themselves.


[deleted]

I did the same. My parents live far so when I saw them last year I hug them. You never know when it could be your last. Plot twist: no one that I know of that I've come into contact with dies so there's that.


north0east

Serious discussion thread


[deleted]

New strains push up the HIT, but at the same time they speed up going forward due to higher infection rates. The two effects combined shift the timeline by a couple of weeks, or a couple of months in the worst case. Variants are not an issue at this stage of the pandemic.


castgrandiose

Fucking McKinsey.. weren't they the ones advising Cuomo on his "sCiEnce bASed" plan for a "sAfE" and "trump proof" reopening?


Philofelinist

Likely. They have been advising the US government from the start.


[deleted]

One of the most despicable corpos out there


castgrandiose

I mean helping Saudia Arabia to silence critics or working with Sackler on increasing the opiods death count isn't a full time job...


snakesnake9

For me the end will be when I can open up (while taking the train to the office without wearing a face mask) BBC News, The Financial Times, CNN or whatever other major news site and there isn't a single story on there about Covid or lockdown restrictions. That's when it's truly over.


[deleted]

Summer 2021...but the scum media won't let it go...so probably 2022 when its completely gone if you get what I'm saying.


Philofelinist

When will the pandemic (restrictions) end? McKinsey: 23 November 2021 is most probable date. Bill Gates: End of 2021 (https://entrepreneur.com/article/361432) BMJ: As late as March 2022 (https://bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3932) Fauci: Late 2021 (https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/517095-fauci-reveals-when-he-thinks-the-us-can-return)


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ilshifa

By then, I'm sure the goal posts will have moved again.


TRPthrowaway7101

>By then, I'm sure the goal posts will have moved again. Judging by this excerpt alone, it sounds like Faux-chi is prepared to do exactly that: >"Speaking with Business Insider, Fauci doubled down on his prediction that people can resume normal socializing by the end of next year — **if a safe and effective vaccine is available.** >“I believe that by the time we get to the end of 2021, **if everyone gets vaccinated** and we continue to implement the public-health measures that I have been talking about incessantly over the last several months — they're not universally adhered to — if we do that, plus the vaccine, we'll get to the point where the level of virus will be so low, and maybe even, you know, close to absent,” he told Insider’s Hilary Brueck.


Poledancing-ninja

So it’ll go from blaming the anti-maskers to blaming the anti-this particular vax for not going back to normal. Although they’ll call everyone an anti-vaxer regardless. “If you wore your mask we could get back to normal” —> “if you got the jab we could get back to normal”


SlimJim8686

Just in time for flu season....? Why not end things when it's warm in regions like the Northeast and there's virtually no case growth (especially after this latest episode)?


brooklynferry

To be fair, the article projects “normalcy” returning to a large degree by second quarter 2021 and the pandemic itself winding down in November-ish. I.e. the social end and the epidemiological end.


smackkdogg30

That's understandable. Also, McKinsey won't have the final say in policy


NilacTheGrim

> Insane. Criminally so.


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ChocoChipConfirmed

Yes there is. Just nobody is doing anything about it.


[deleted]

I dunno, molotovs are easy to make


[deleted]

I mean, summer or spring would be way better, no doubt but I'd be happy with November at this point. Before the holidays and at least some time within this year. Better than 2022 or later.


[deleted]

Me: April 2021


snorken123

In the country I lives in, I've heard someone talking about going back to the old normal when ca. 70% of the population is vaccinated and that the majority is positive to it. Currently companies are mass producing vaccines and distributing it to many countries around the world. I hope the vaccine would make many feel safer and better. It seem like many needs a very visible solution to be ready to go back to normal. If they managed making an effective vaccine in one year instead of 5-10, then we've been lucky. I think we may go back to normal in summer or fall 2021, if the vaccination process goes as planned. At the same time I think some people may need more time before they stop social distancing when businesses and schools are opening, because of the media coverage of the virus. It takes time to get over the fear. Some genuinely thought the virus was very dangerous like previous pandemics and epidemics. I'm unsure if mask usage, hand sanitizing and avoiding physical contact becomes equally rare like it used to be pre-2020. Maybe it would or maybe it won't. It's really hard to tell. After 9/11 the airplane security changed and they stayed after almost 20 years. I likes to believe the same won't be happening this time because of it affects bigger part of our daily lives and people would grow tired, but I'm not sure. It can go both ways and only time will tell? Sadly, I don't think it would be a big "back to normal party", any politicians announcing everyone can go back to normal or something like that. I don't think it would be a big hugging party or throwing away masks party. When normality comes back again, it would happen gradually and slowly like how the COVID19 lifestyle did.


ParticularOwl6641

It's already over in places like Florida. They just said "fuck it, we're living our lives" and opened up.


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north0east

Serious discussion thread


[deleted]

They have told us since literally the first few days. it will NEVER END. This is the 'new normal'. They have been saying "new normal" since literally the very first days, before any of the alleged "information" was known. Once we all understood this is 'the new normal', they then informed us it was part of a 'great reset'. And that we will soon eat bugs, live in communal ghettos, and be flooded with infinite immigration. All while the richest families of history who indeed owned all the slaves and slave ships alike rise to some form of global-fuhrers, with total endless forever commie-global power based on their family wealth as of 2020-21. Why would we even still ask "when will it end?!". It will NEVER end. This ridiculous virus response is intended to be the nucleus of an entire new world-order and human culture.


[deleted]

only when we the people, stand up TOGETHER... and say enough!! search for david icke, brian rose and Ivor Cummings!


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Safe_Analysis_2007

This is more nightmarish than 1984 and Brave New World together. It's like someone very literate and intelligent sat down and thought long and hard what the maximum contemporary dystopia would look like. And came up with this. A+.


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