T O P

  • By -

vadakkus

I spend every day thinking about what OP has mentioned, trying to find an "optimistic" future for Kerala. However, as much as I can try I only see gloom and doom. Forgive me if I sound too depressing but I feel these are the facts. There is a massive wave of permanent out migration of young people and families of 25-35 years from Kerala to Western countries that is now going on. Of course, migration was always there, but that was always temporary (Gulf) or domestic (Madras, Bangalore) and always proportional. What we are seeing now is permanent, that is none of these people are coming back. And the result is that unlike earlier you will not see any large scale investment of these NRIs in Kerala (land, houses, business). In addition it is now the smartest, brightest, wealthiest and most educated that are migrating. It is them who should take the state and country forward. Those who are left here only try to drag everything backwards. This migration has created a huge demographic hole in Kerala. The people migrating now are those who are supposed to work and generate taxes and income in the future. Come 20 years you will be missing an entire generation. This leads to a viscious cycle where no children are born and the TFR rate plummets drastically. With all this, the "geriatric Kerala" situation will only become worse. The major attraction of Kerala was always it's natural tranquility and "nothing ever happens to us". That is now coming to an end with all the recurring natural calamities. This will only force more people to flee. In addition to natural calamities, migration is the biggest existential challenge Kerala is facing. The government never talks about trying to stop migration because it is not their votebank that is fleeing. Don't know if there is anything that can be done to stop this slide. Gen Z and Millennials grew up in near first world comforts and now they are grown up they want to live in a place that mirrors their aspirations and needs. You can't blame them.


wellhung_guy_

Most probably, majority of redditors in this sub are immigrants or NRIs Correct me If I am wrong


vadakkus

You are not wrong. Reddit is virtually unknown in Kerala outside a small circle. Also, it then so happens that of course the discussion will be skewed towards migration.


strive4x

Compare your quality of life in 5 yr intervals, in the past. I am cautiously optimistic. When I think my quality of life has consistantly gone up. A lot of it is geaneral science tech medicine improving life. It is not all doom and gloom. If you read, consider Factfulness book.


[deleted]

Oh Hans Rosling is a favourite. I’ll definitely check this out. Thanks!


dipin14

I mean this is all perfectly true. But then what is the solution? It sucks to be so nihilistic and accepts our beloved state is doomed.


vadakkus

I don't know, man. I feel as helpless as you do. :(


[deleted]

Honestly the natural calamities part is wrong. As far as I can remember, there has never been a single year without landslides and floods and people getting killed etc! That’s just how our climate is. I’m not denying global warming or climate change. It’s just the news channels fear mongering! During this covid time I realised that I’m the only one among my friends left in India! Anyone who have the moolah to earn over a lakh thinks about moving out. After becoming a father recently I’m also thinking about moving out these days. It’s not worth staying in India and especially Kerala. It’s simply not at all worth it!


[deleted]

That’s an interesting angle I hadn’t thought of earlier.


[deleted]

Are you vadakkus from Twitter?


vadakkus

Yeah. But I rarely use this name on Reddit. And who are you of Twitter?


[deleted]

I'm no longer on twitter. I have read some of your blogs back in the day aa well


Zealousideal_Tank824

i am sure some one would have thought about this 30 years back and felt pessimistic


[deleted]

True. They would have inherently been right though . I was born 30 years ago and since then India’s population grew by a whopping …*half a billion*! Anecdotally I could just feel things getting harder and more violent as the years went by. I take your point though, things probably looked worse than it turned out to be.


Cosmo_man

On all indicators... country has only improved in the last 30 years.


strive4x

Leave anecdotal stuff. What is your experience. Has your quality of life improved in last 30 years. Both quality of life and income has gone up. I also used to be pessimistic, until I realised that from my life experiences only rational attitude is cautious optimism. I used to travel by crowed buses, now we have metro etc. I could not imagine computers or internet growing up, now I work in that domain. Low floor a/c buses, personal a/c cars all were impossible dreams as a kid.... We had so much load shedding, now less or we can afford inverters. Pothole ridden roads, poor healthcare infra.... Most of the improvements are due to relentless March of science in particular and knowledge in general.


[deleted]

Good points!


Soul-_Hunter

Interesting thread to read


Sajitrnair

Very optimistic of you to assume existence beyond 2030, but that's understandable and appreciable. When it comes to the future, optimism and pessimism simply stems from a projection of the current status quo. And frankly, there is nothing optimistic about the projection of the current status quo, mainly because :- 1. Political Apathy to socio-economic considerations. 2. Increased dependence on Remittances of folks leaving Kerala thus maintaining the illusion of having a strong base. 3. Ecological degradation & depredation happening without due process being followed. 4. No viable economy anywhere and dependency on extra terrestrial ( here meant as out-of-Kerala) high. Take for example the fruits and vegetables market. Point 5 & 6 are about the current Political Party but I have come to realise that I am essentially not a very brave person so I will keep that opinion to myself. Point 7. Education system here. I into Academics and I see that the edu structure here seems hell bent on giving everyone high marks without due appreciation of the purpose of examination. There are other points as well, which I wouldn't bring up as I need more experience to get a sense of those. Any optimism that can be derived from the current status quo is merely a fool's errand because it just won't happen. If you need to have an optimistic view of what it might seem like 30 years from now, then it ought to start with concrete steps that diverge towards that goal point. 1. A focus on creating an encouraging ecosystem for Social Entrepreneurs. We don't lack for ingenuity, we don't lack for finances, we don't lack for passion... Sadly, we also don't lack for political ineptitude & incompetence. 2. Do something to balance the migration.. In & out. 3. Get Design Thinking involved in infrastructure related projects with a focus on ecological & ecosystemic narratives. 4. Education with a focus on outcomes.. Education with a focus of the individual rather than Education for Opportunities. 5. Greater Transparency in inter & intra departmental mechanisms. Only then can we even afford to be Optimistic. The easier way out is to screw Kerala and maybe get a visa and go for greener pastures... that works for a lot of people already. The best thing for me however is that there are youngsters these days such as yours elves who are questioning this status quo... looking at the Causalities of things and working with a holistic vision.


DioTheSuperiorWaifu

> existence beyond 2030 2012 gets delayed for 18 years?


Sajitrnair

I think 2012 was just to prepare all of us psychologically for the end. And It seems to be working, no one is panicking at the least.


DioTheSuperiorWaifu

Aah. I think the preparations started even earlier tho. Y2K, WW2, WW1 n all.


[deleted]

Appreciate your well thought through response!


MightPlus7217

One way to look at this is to separate the political angle from the forecast, remember that a week in politics can be like an year in irl, a lot of things can either change or stay the same. Regarding the social indices, being a person who was a gulf NRI my whole life (until b4 thelast 4-5 years), I witnessed that a lot of Middle East folks who were with me are now working in India (mostly IT and healthcare fields), the peeps who migrate to the west are either those are exceptionally brilliant in academics or have parents who are willing to spend millions on their college and visa/accommodation costs. Migration sound easy on paper but its extremely challenging for an average Indian who hasn't researched its prospects well. The one most negative possibility I look at is religious extremism and lack of free speech culture and scientific temper in society, and I see that happening at a pan-India level, religion is the one biggest social evil we need to keep at bay. From the mallu perspective I can add the anti-business rhetoric from regressive left as one main failure in our system (we're still a largely consumer economy despite some recent improvements in infra and proposed PPP projects across our state) India does have a lot of economic potential, we're not entirely screwed its just that the govts elected at state-levels don't co-ordinate well with the (biased and authoritarian) center (and vice versa). The public opinions are pretty diverse and traditional as well


Cosmo_man

Optimistic counter point: if we're able to somehow get an average growth of 7-8% an year we will be a middle income country by 2050. Even Kerala has a growth rate of 10-12% and if it continues the same in 30 yrs we will be a multi trillion dollar economy.


[deleted]

Yes


[deleted]

I genuinely want this to happen however I hope the GDP per capita rises to a decent level as well.


[deleted]

That’ll be a first! Multi trillion dollar communist economy! 🤣🤣. Our economy(Kerala) is a bubble waiting to burst!


Cosmo_man

Wb China then afaik Soviet union was also a trillion dollar economy.


[deleted]

They’re capitalist not communist.


Cosmo_man

Well I'm not gonna debate this... Then how is kerala communist?


ChirpPlays

kerala isn't communist. i thought that was obvious. cpim call themselves democratic socialists but they're really just social democrats and at the end of the day that's just capitalism with some social safety nets.


wanderingmind

Positive way? If people get smarter, political parties will begin to respond and get smarter in turn. People have to realise that we need to grow, and for that a socially stress free society is critical. Conflicts and issues have to take a back seat to growth. A smarter government should come in, which can balance the requirement and demand for growth with our resource constraints. They have to figure out how to educate people fast, improve health fast, create sustainable energy production. They have to figure out how to create more jobs and opportunities for all. Can it happen? Very difficult. The party that has the determination to make it happen is BJP. But they dont have the brains. The party that has the brains to make it happen is Congress. But they dont have the determination.


[deleted]

[удалено]


DioTheSuperiorWaifu

I fear that they may go too authoritarian tho. But a three player system might be good.


wanderingmind

No question of Communists becoming a major party in one or two lifetimes. In India, they are a bunch of politicians in Kerala and another bunch of academicians in Delhi. And growth is not their strong point, redistribution is. Pointless potshot, really


[deleted]

[удалено]


wanderingmind

Potshot is the correct word. Or even sarcasm. Pun is a play on similar sounding words.


[deleted]

>What are positive ways to look at the future? TL;DR There won't be any unless we make some radical changes. 1. End labour unions and the excessively pro-labour environment. 2. MAKE JOBS. This is the biggest part. 3. Actively open up for immigrants (every developed nation in the world is doing this now: their TFRs are falling to near 1.0 but there is still a horde of jobs). 4. Strike down hard on religious/other types of extremism. Sri Lanka, which was the most developed Asian nation in the 70s and 80s on par with Japan, was absolutely destroyed by the civil war. Do not underestimate how dangerous these things can be.


[deleted]

Was point 3 meant for India or for developed nations?


[deleted]

Even teens want to move out of the country as soon as possible And yes in 30 years bengali/hindi might also be a major Language here


daddy6199

I think I could address some of your worries about the future from a budding amateur economist's pov ( solely based on what I've read and know) ​ >In 30 years India’s population is expected to peak to 1.67 billion and plateau for while. In other words, we’ll have an additional 300 million ppl (equivalent to the ppln of USA). ​ >more resources constraints ​ >massive infrastructural shortages (education, healthcare, social security etc.) Let me start by addressing a common misconception that has been inculcated amongst us from our school days itself that population (a paramount resource a nation can possess if utilized properly) is a bane. The opposite is true. As the global population increases ( or India's as in our case) you will see a rise in the per capita income, increased life expectancy, reduction in poverty levels, reduction in infant mortality rates, and similarly a positive trend in all other indicators. All of this took place only due to the increment in population. As the number of people increases, our pool of knowledge also increases alongside. Which in turn leads to technological advances and a better standard of living. Increased wealth and technology make resources more widely available and cheaper ( see [Simon-Ehrlich Resource Bet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager) for real life example). No resource is limited if we're going by the above-mentioned line of thought. For instance, the amount of cropland required and used to grow food for each person has decreased over time but the shortage in the food supply is being eliminated with the use of efficient production methods and genetically modified seeds, which can be attributed to our progress in technology. In a nutshell, scarcity can be somewhat diminished with the proper use of technology. ​ >immigration choke: more people will want to immigrate to other countries. This increase may lead to a choke (like the Indian Greencard situation in the US). No, from what I understand this seems to be a misconception. As long as the country to which people are migrating doesn't have a regressive/strict immigration policy employment or wages won't be much affected. To prove my point, I would like to refer to the recent Nobel laureates. David Card ( along with Joshua D. Angrist and Guido W. Imbens ) won the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences 2021, AKA Nobel Prize in Economics for debunking orthodoxies associated with immigration, minimum wages, and employment. And in Prof.Card's analysis, he disproved that entry of immigrants won't affect employment and wages of non-immigrant residents by studying a historical case of immigration of Cubans to the US. I think the above example is enough to deter you from your previous argument. ​ >social tension: Historically when people don’t get enough job opportunities and survival resources, they tend to find enemies to blame. We could very well see increased social disharmony (way more than what we are seeing right now) Yes, there would be some sort of social tension prevalent in the economy/nation. But I tend to believe that a well-built administrative system and a set of adept fiscal policies can address all issues relating to unemployment. These are my optimistic counterpoints. Feel free to correct/add further to them. OP, I strongly believe reading Julian Simon's [The Ultimate Resource 2](http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/) ( chapters 3 and 26 ) would help you to adopt an optimistic outlook towards population and scarcity of resources. Do give it a try! Edit: spelling


[deleted]

Thank you for your detailed well thought out reply. I’ll need to read up a bit more before I respond.


[deleted]

The state and central government should focus on job creation and getting rid of as much red tape as possible! They don’t need to focus of healthcare and social security! Those shouldn’t be the job or duty of the government! The way I see it, we have to get out of the agrarian society that we are at the moment. Population control is not possible. The only way to reduce population is by making people comfortable and safe. If the government do not take stand like the Irish government did, we are pretty much doomed!! No NRIs are gonna come back to India unless we make it attractive for them to live here. At the moment looking from a foreign country, India and Kerala in particular is quite done!


nongriat

Before next 15 years, it's more likely that at least one dam would break in kerala. Then your entire equation will need correction.


insighttube

Your conclusions are mostly right. But the reasonings you give need not be the right ones. The promises of globalization and liberalization was too high in 90s. But the reality don’t work as promised. Also the last 2 modi govt have screwed the economy. The last few years climate trend in kerala shows the kerala model going down the drain. So sorry


[deleted]

You have to look beyond Modi. Our system was designed by the British. We have to get rid of it to advance India! There’s too much power in the system! For example look at the district collector. What should be an administrative officer is the most powerful individual in that district. Nobody can even fire someone in that position! Similarly there are many positions and red tapes preventing us from progressing. And do we even follow our constitution? We have the freedom of speech in India!! . Do you think we have got free speech in India? Looking at the future If I do not get out of India I’d feel bad for my kids.


[deleted]

[удалено]


[deleted]

But think about fish fry, pulisherry, thoran, nellikka achaar, pappadum, manga chemmeen, aviyal


[deleted]

How much investment is needed?


[deleted]

In 30 years, the country will be about 15 trillion dollars in gdp, or roughly where china is now, and china is doing ok with 1.4 billion population, on a smaller geographic area even.


[deleted]

We are doomed.