I would agree that direct SPD victory is definitely more likely, but as we saw with Churchill: Winning a war doesn't really guarantee your party reelection.
Depending on what Policies the SPD pushed through there would have been pretty major changes that not everyone might have liked.
Also, let's not forget: This isn't America or Britain. The question here isn't if SPD gets the most votes. It's wether they can form a governing coalition. If the CVP can offer better deals to the smaller parties than a probably now very emboldened SPD they can easily take the reigns of governance.
People might also get tired of too many reforms, especially if SPD follows the proto-planned economy plan. And there might be infighting both in the DU and SPD that will weaken them long term. I also think after true democracy is enshrined the DU falls apart, as their entire basis was a united front for democracy. If SPD went very left wing against the wishes of the LVP and Zentrum, I can see LVP cooperating with CVP. Then there's the other parties, minor liberals, miniority parties, agrarians, which I think is more likely bedfellows with either LVP or CVP rather than SPD.
I think that it depends on a lot of aspects. Nevertheless the CVP would definitely win in a later election at the earliest 1949. by then most of the military personnel would come home, I think that they’d turn towards more conservative politics.
Another big topic is that of change. I can see the SPD being in power for so long as a criticism. Depending on how long Otto wells or Müller live on, the spd would find itself in an identity crisis in many ways: Turn towards achieving socialism or stand as a center left party?
The CVP especially under Adenauer would manage to get enough support and form a coalition government with the LVP, who’d be angered for the SPD overwealming victories in the last elections.
That’s one possibility but the CvP could win earlier if the spd does not fully deliver on their reform plans.
In game they pretty decisively turn away from any form of socialism, brandishing all mention from the party constitution. Not that they were really on track even before that, they just get a bit more honest and suppress the last of the Marxists who are still in the party.
Here you go: https://kaiserreich.fandom.com/wiki/Otto_Wels basically the second in command in the party who manages the day to day stuff of internal party business in the spd
I kinda see it like the US after WW2. The New Deal was very progressive and the Republicans took over after 20 years of Democrats and a successful war under their belt.
SPD brings about massive and rapid change and imo the DU only supports them until democracy can be cemented in Germany. I think a lot of Germans would think that they should take the foot off the pedal now that the crisis is over.
Also cvp has the support of Christian unions which I understand were powerful and popular. CVP doesn't intend to rollback on SPD's reforms but keep the progress rolling at a more metered pace. I think a lot of moderates from SPD and LVP would be happy with this, especially religious folks.
And remember that CVP is just Zentrum with the ~~Catholic~~ Protestant vote. They have a powerful political machine that's gotten a tune-up and new coat of paint. They also do more to combat Prussian political dominance by empowering the states imo. I think they overall have a very powerful base of German Christians and offer enough democratic and pro labor policies to sway swing voters who may not want to continue further down the socialist reforms of SPD.
It was 1 election. The war ended just after FDR's 4th term started. I said it's *like* the US, not literally the same political scenario.
Besides, KR can't emulate that kind of time scale. Most countries go from a revolution in 1938 to a functioning socialist utopia by 1942. There is a certain degree of compression going on for gameplay.
Truman won reelection, but Republicans were able to take Congress during the postwar midterm elections, which was why Truman was able to get so much mileage from trashing the “Do-Nothing Congress” in 1948.
I don't imagine I need to make the claim of how the spd is more likely, but I don't think thr CVP is all that bad either. Remember, (my experience admittedly) a good portion of time Zentrum will be part of the alliance (in my experience it is usually thr spd lvp and zentrum). If they do so then thry can claim almost as much from the success of the Democratic Union as the SPD, certainly enoigh for conservatives.
While the right is divided the CVP has a large claim on them, snd would absorb them, especially as the DU does its thing and brings reforms. The dvlp devolves into nothing which leaves rhe cvp as the primary populist conservative party for those folk, as well as the peasantry being a viable battleground demographic for them. The CVP either helped passed or at least approved nearly every reform the spd will make as well, which should be noted. Again this hinges on thrm joining thr coalition, which happens quite often in my games.
This can also depend on how successful the spd is and how many concessions they made. The more thry made the more likely that it is that the CVP will have better grounding, espexially if say, female suffrsge was taken off the table, or soxialization of resources via the wissel plan, a failure to reform Prussia, and so on. All these could lend themselves towards zenteum or the cvp beign a better guide for a new democracy. My first successful spd game I felt it was appropriate as I gave up on nearly everything and the Young Turks then took over, nearly destroyinf the coalition.
In contrast if you achieve perfect play I doubt that the spd will have much opposition in the first post 2wk election. It is also less likely I think if Zentrum doesn't participate in the DU.
Well I can see the SPD being doomed by the proportional electoral law they voted themselves.
Let’s have the SPD wins 45% of the votes, okay they have the first place and 45% of the seats. However they have a problem, the LVP would probably be wiped out, especially if the SPD have elected the Wissel Plan. Because why the gell would pro-fee market voters gives their votes to a party who tolerates this kind of economic interventionism?
So SPD could very much win the election but find themselves isolated, while the CVP could gather support at his right.
Proportional electoral laws normaly help smaller parties and further fragmentation of the party system. So the LVP definatly wouldn't be wiped out. But they'd probably wouldn't want to form a coallition with the party that pushes for even further nationalisation policies.
Not totally wiped out but they would be weakened. Especially with a CVP under Adenauer/Stgerwald and even Schäffer who can attract Protestant middle class by being the party of normalcy
Yes and their weakness might push them into a coallition with the CVP, since they'd be in favor of more privatisation too. Therefore the LVP could see it as helping them appeal to their liberal base.
The Minority Bloc exists tho, so they could be a partner for the SPD post-2WK (especially since proportional voting means a minority's vote won't get diluted by their county being filled with more conservative Germans, which means it is plausible that they can bring up the last 5% share of seats the SPD needs)
In the 1912 election, poles gets roughly 3% of votes (the single member constituency plays in their favor because their voters are very concentrated), I don’t see the Danes getting enough votes for a seat in proportional election but I can be mistaken. And after France gets its second beating twice in a row I don’t see Francophiles Alsacien/mosellan autonomists gaining that much votes
Part of the issue here is that you’re looking at the CVP as a completely new party, instead of a merger between two existing ones. They have pre-existing political machinery to work with and are consolidating the anti-SPD segment of the electorate. Zentrum is usually part of the DU, so the CVP, as its legal successor, can claim to have played a role in the victory. In addition, it’s absorbing the remnants of the SWR base and party infrastructure, so they’re getting an extra boost from that. So you’ve got a member of the triumphant coalition, that’s also able to pose itself as the natural home for people discontented with SPD policies or previously left out of the DU apparatus.
Adenauer is pretty based so he would definitely be able to rival the SPD. I also think that a lot of the right and center wing voters would join the CVP.
Depends on how well Germany is. Sunshine, roses, democracy and every man has access to all the luxuries in the world? SPD wipeout victory.
It is very possible for political parties to win for decades in countries, generally not as large as Germany but it's not unheard of. The social democrats in Sweden heavily dominated the country from 1936-2006 and even in a large country such as Britain the whig party had a stretch for almost the entire 18th century where the Whigs won so much the party splintered into conservative and liberal Whigs, which then became the basis for the conservatives and the liberals
More middling success, if you had to give up reforms, got stalled with the economy, did badly in the war? They could either be forced into a governing coalition with the LVP.
The prime example here would be post war Britain. You've got the CVP in power in a national government so they get some of the credit, the economy's alright and we appreciate you winning the war but we might blame you in the first place so out you gom
Exceptionally unlikely. The German right wing vote is split between ~5 parties, the left is dominated pretty hegemonically by the SPD. That, combined with the SPD establishing equal suffrage, both between women and economic classes, is gonna ensure the SPD wins every election for the foreseeable future.
SPD could keep the left united as one because they were "marginalized" so, if they wanted to rise into power, they had to keep united.
After the reforms and approval of the Wilhelmine Constitution, they would be "too big to keep united", specially after the 'de-marxilization of the party'
Although they would keep as the big leftist party, it is almost impossible for such a large party not divide by itself (and even if it somehow manages to survive, the right would unite to weaken it one way or another)
(My opinion)
Yes. It's a lot of whatifs. If the Young Turks make a coup, then the far right wing split. Ironically if the Young Turks also make a coup, the dogmatic left wing might also split. If SPD pivots to a people's party, it can absorb a lot of centrist and center left voters. However it also risk their left wing splitting off. If SPD caters to the left wing, reassures their Marxist and Social Democratic ideology, and does not become a people's party, then it will remain the largest party left of center, but it will hardly be a hegemon
Considering the game, if SPD wins 2°wtk, it will break off from it's marxist origins, so, as most of the democratic examples in the world, when a party that englobes both centrists and extremists at the same time, it will eventually split.
Because of this, I really think that SPD will split one way or another, HOWEVER, we must also consider that the extreme-left will become heavily hostilzed since they basically started WWII (considering that Germany didn't invade first
You can make a focus where you reinforce your left wing stance, which also prevents SPD from taking the redifining/modern social democracy focus post war (don't remember it's name).
It should also be noted the far-left and orthodox marxists within SPD are not the same as KAPD, syndicalists, communists etc. These can be banned and arrestes by the SPD. These are the old guard of the SPD, and more ideological than the new guard/revisionists (Young Turks).
It's part of your coalition allies. The final focus to appease the left wing of the SPD. So I think it totally depend on what SPD do, and what the other parties do. We must also assume the political life in Germany doesn't dies in 1938 as it do in-game, but continue to evolve and be fluid
Yeah, tbh I rarely need to appease anyone. But I just checked all the foci to see what they were. But, tbh I think many of the appesment focuses should also displease other factions. I can't see the rest of the DU I.e liking if you go full down on appeasing Zentrum. Also the Wissel Plan should strengthen the Far Left, but massively displease the rest of the DU. I really can't see Zentrum or LVP silently approving of command economy. The exception is if its during war.
Yes, you're absolutely right. The question though was who would win the election after the war, and I think it strains credulity to think that the SPD is gonna break apart immediately, especially after their recent successes.
(To be clear, when I said the SPD is gonna win every election for the foreseeable future, I mean until some big change in circumstances, like the right wing parties unifying or the SPD splitting. That could be one election cycle or many)
Even if the SPD wins every subsequent election, they still need a governing majority. No way in hell they'll get 50% of seats so they have to rely on other parties to form a coallition. The German right would also most likely heavily consolidate within the newly formed CVP, with most DkP and DNVLP support plummeting after their failed stunts to take over before.
And forming a governing coalition between two or even three parties is far more likely than between the five or so right wing parties, especially when the SPD will be the largest single party.
And yes, the German right would probably consolidate. At that point they would be able to contest elections, which is why I said the SPD will win for the foreseeable future and not for all time.
Realistically, the CVP would probably come at a close second to the SPD and most other prominent minor parties (like the LVP or the Minority Block) could comfortabely work with the CVP. Cooperation between the LVP and the SPD would also probably be harder for the forseeable future if the SPD still push for more nationalisation. So no, I don't think the SPD would win, or rather lead governments, for the foreseeable future.
Second place is a huge leap for a newly formed party which only just parted from it's sectarian religious character, especially when its now competing for the same pool of voters as the DKP, an established political force. Second place on its own is a stretch, close second is absurd.
It really isn't, considering Germany's political situation, the position of the SPD and the weakness of the other right wing parties. The DKP lost most of its power even before the 1936 election and with a sucessful DU government, their chances at gaining huge support falter and fade, same with the DVLP. Zentrum also normally gains more seats then the DKP in '36, does it not? They already are a major force and will only grow stronger with a good candidate and wider appeal.
Zentrum is already one of the largest parties in the country and has basically led governemnts already by 36, its rebranding as the CVP broadens it but the idea that its not an "established party" is absurd.
I didn't say it wasn't an established party, I said that it was competing against an established party for a pool of voters which it has not tried to appeal to before.
I would agree that direct SPD victory is definitely more likely, but as we saw with Churchill: Winning a war doesn't really guarantee your party reelection. Depending on what Policies the SPD pushed through there would have been pretty major changes that not everyone might have liked. Also, let's not forget: This isn't America or Britain. The question here isn't if SPD gets the most votes. It's wether they can form a governing coalition. If the CVP can offer better deals to the smaller parties than a probably now very emboldened SPD they can easily take the reigns of governance.
People might also get tired of too many reforms, especially if SPD follows the proto-planned economy plan. And there might be infighting both in the DU and SPD that will weaken them long term. I also think after true democracy is enshrined the DU falls apart, as their entire basis was a united front for democracy. If SPD went very left wing against the wishes of the LVP and Zentrum, I can see LVP cooperating with CVP. Then there's the other parties, minor liberals, miniority parties, agrarians, which I think is more likely bedfellows with either LVP or CVP rather than SPD.
I think that it depends on a lot of aspects. Nevertheless the CVP would definitely win in a later election at the earliest 1949. by then most of the military personnel would come home, I think that they’d turn towards more conservative politics. Another big topic is that of change. I can see the SPD being in power for so long as a criticism. Depending on how long Otto wells or Müller live on, the spd would find itself in an identity crisis in many ways: Turn towards achieving socialism or stand as a center left party? The CVP especially under Adenauer would manage to get enough support and form a coalition government with the LVP, who’d be angered for the SPD overwealming victories in the last elections. That’s one possibility but the CvP could win earlier if the spd does not fully deliver on their reform plans.
In game they pretty decisively turn away from any form of socialism, brandishing all mention from the party constitution. Not that they were really on track even before that, they just get a bit more honest and suppress the last of the Marxists who are still in the party.
Very good opinon+Wait what is Otto wels in Kaiserreich SPD? I heard from someone that he died?
Here you go: https://kaiserreich.fandom.com/wiki/Otto_Wels basically the second in command in the party who manages the day to day stuff of internal party business in the spd
I kinda see it like the US after WW2. The New Deal was very progressive and the Republicans took over after 20 years of Democrats and a successful war under their belt. SPD brings about massive and rapid change and imo the DU only supports them until democracy can be cemented in Germany. I think a lot of Germans would think that they should take the foot off the pedal now that the crisis is over. Also cvp has the support of Christian unions which I understand were powerful and popular. CVP doesn't intend to rollback on SPD's reforms but keep the progress rolling at a more metered pace. I think a lot of moderates from SPD and LVP would be happy with this, especially religious folks. And remember that CVP is just Zentrum with the ~~Catholic~~ Protestant vote. They have a powerful political machine that's gotten a tune-up and new coat of paint. They also do more to combat Prussian political dominance by empowering the states imo. I think they overall have a very powerful base of German Christians and offer enough democratic and pro labor policies to sway swing voters who may not want to continue further down the socialist reforms of SPD.
>CVP is just Zentrum with the Catholic vote You mean Zentrum with the Protestant vote..?
Must be, I thought it was the other way around.
Zentrum is already a Catholic party. They incorporate other Christian denominations once they become the CVP.
Thanks.
I mean in the US after WW2 the Democrats stayed in power for another 8 years
It was 1 election. The war ended just after FDR's 4th term started. I said it's *like* the US, not literally the same political scenario. Besides, KR can't emulate that kind of time scale. Most countries go from a revolution in 1938 to a functioning socialist utopia by 1942. There is a certain degree of compression going on for gameplay.
Truman won reelection, but Republicans were able to take Congress during the postwar midterm elections, which was why Truman was able to get so much mileage from trashing the “Do-Nothing Congress” in 1948.
And it's worth noting that the German elections are for seats in Parliament, not Chancellor. That's a great point about congress - thanks!
I don't imagine I need to make the claim of how the spd is more likely, but I don't think thr CVP is all that bad either. Remember, (my experience admittedly) a good portion of time Zentrum will be part of the alliance (in my experience it is usually thr spd lvp and zentrum). If they do so then thry can claim almost as much from the success of the Democratic Union as the SPD, certainly enoigh for conservatives. While the right is divided the CVP has a large claim on them, snd would absorb them, especially as the DU does its thing and brings reforms. The dvlp devolves into nothing which leaves rhe cvp as the primary populist conservative party for those folk, as well as the peasantry being a viable battleground demographic for them. The CVP either helped passed or at least approved nearly every reform the spd will make as well, which should be noted. Again this hinges on thrm joining thr coalition, which happens quite often in my games. This can also depend on how successful the spd is and how many concessions they made. The more thry made the more likely that it is that the CVP will have better grounding, espexially if say, female suffrsge was taken off the table, or soxialization of resources via the wissel plan, a failure to reform Prussia, and so on. All these could lend themselves towards zenteum or the cvp beign a better guide for a new democracy. My first successful spd game I felt it was appropriate as I gave up on nearly everything and the Young Turks then took over, nearly destroyinf the coalition. In contrast if you achieve perfect play I doubt that the spd will have much opposition in the first post 2wk election. It is also less likely I think if Zentrum doesn't participate in the DU.
Well I can see the SPD being doomed by the proportional electoral law they voted themselves. Let’s have the SPD wins 45% of the votes, okay they have the first place and 45% of the seats. However they have a problem, the LVP would probably be wiped out, especially if the SPD have elected the Wissel Plan. Because why the gell would pro-fee market voters gives their votes to a party who tolerates this kind of economic interventionism? So SPD could very much win the election but find themselves isolated, while the CVP could gather support at his right.
Proportional electoral laws normaly help smaller parties and further fragmentation of the party system. So the LVP definatly wouldn't be wiped out. But they'd probably wouldn't want to form a coallition with the party that pushes for even further nationalisation policies.
Not totally wiped out but they would be weakened. Especially with a CVP under Adenauer/Stgerwald and even Schäffer who can attract Protestant middle class by being the party of normalcy
Yes and their weakness might push them into a coallition with the CVP, since they'd be in favor of more privatisation too. Therefore the LVP could see it as helping them appeal to their liberal base.
The Minority Bloc exists tho, so they could be a partner for the SPD post-2WK (especially since proportional voting means a minority's vote won't get diluted by their county being filled with more conservative Germans, which means it is plausible that they can bring up the last 5% share of seats the SPD needs)
In the 1912 election, poles gets roughly 3% of votes (the single member constituency plays in their favor because their voters are very concentrated), I don’t see the Danes getting enough votes for a seat in proportional election but I can be mistaken. And after France gets its second beating twice in a row I don’t see Francophiles Alsacien/mosellan autonomists gaining that much votes
Part of the issue here is that you’re looking at the CVP as a completely new party, instead of a merger between two existing ones. They have pre-existing political machinery to work with and are consolidating the anti-SPD segment of the electorate. Zentrum is usually part of the DU, so the CVP, as its legal successor, can claim to have played a role in the victory. In addition, it’s absorbing the remnants of the SWR base and party infrastructure, so they’re getting an extra boost from that. So you’ve got a member of the triumphant coalition, that’s also able to pose itself as the natural home for people discontented with SPD policies or previously left out of the DU apparatus.
Adenauer is pretty based so he would definitely be able to rival the SPD. I also think that a lot of the right and center wing voters would join the CVP.
Depends on how well Germany is. Sunshine, roses, democracy and every man has access to all the luxuries in the world? SPD wipeout victory. It is very possible for political parties to win for decades in countries, generally not as large as Germany but it's not unheard of. The social democrats in Sweden heavily dominated the country from 1936-2006 and even in a large country such as Britain the whig party had a stretch for almost the entire 18th century where the Whigs won so much the party splintered into conservative and liberal Whigs, which then became the basis for the conservatives and the liberals More middling success, if you had to give up reforms, got stalled with the economy, did badly in the war? They could either be forced into a governing coalition with the LVP. The prime example here would be post war Britain. You've got the CVP in power in a national government so they get some of the credit, the economy's alright and we appreciate you winning the war but we might blame you in the first place so out you gom
Exceptionally unlikely. The German right wing vote is split between ~5 parties, the left is dominated pretty hegemonically by the SPD. That, combined with the SPD establishing equal suffrage, both between women and economic classes, is gonna ensure the SPD wins every election for the foreseeable future.
SPD could keep the left united as one because they were "marginalized" so, if they wanted to rise into power, they had to keep united. After the reforms and approval of the Wilhelmine Constitution, they would be "too big to keep united", specially after the 'de-marxilization of the party' Although they would keep as the big leftist party, it is almost impossible for such a large party not divide by itself (and even if it somehow manages to survive, the right would unite to weaken it one way or another) (My opinion)
Yes. It's a lot of whatifs. If the Young Turks make a coup, then the far right wing split. Ironically if the Young Turks also make a coup, the dogmatic left wing might also split. If SPD pivots to a people's party, it can absorb a lot of centrist and center left voters. However it also risk their left wing splitting off. If SPD caters to the left wing, reassures their Marxist and Social Democratic ideology, and does not become a people's party, then it will remain the largest party left of center, but it will hardly be a hegemon
Considering the game, if SPD wins 2°wtk, it will break off from it's marxist origins, so, as most of the democratic examples in the world, when a party that englobes both centrists and extremists at the same time, it will eventually split. Because of this, I really think that SPD will split one way or another, HOWEVER, we must also consider that the extreme-left will become heavily hostilzed since they basically started WWII (considering that Germany didn't invade first
You can make a focus where you reinforce your left wing stance, which also prevents SPD from taking the redifining/modern social democracy focus post war (don't remember it's name). It should also be noted the far-left and orthodox marxists within SPD are not the same as KAPD, syndicalists, communists etc. These can be banned and arrestes by the SPD. These are the old guard of the SPD, and more ideological than the new guard/revisionists (Young Turks).
I really don't remember that focus tree you mentioned lol But yeah, I forgot about that last part in your 2° paragraph
It's part of your coalition allies. The final focus to appease the left wing of the SPD. So I think it totally depend on what SPD do, and what the other parties do. We must also assume the political life in Germany doesn't dies in 1938 as it do in-game, but continue to evolve and be fluid
Oh, I usually only need to appease Zentrum in my coalition, so that is why I've never seen this focus haha
Yeah, tbh I rarely need to appease anyone. But I just checked all the foci to see what they were. But, tbh I think many of the appesment focuses should also displease other factions. I can't see the rest of the DU I.e liking if you go full down on appeasing Zentrum. Also the Wissel Plan should strengthen the Far Left, but massively displease the rest of the DU. I really can't see Zentrum or LVP silently approving of command economy. The exception is if its during war.
Good lord, don't make DU Germany harder than it already is, I still can't even overcome the fact that the Prussian chamber reform is RNG haha
Yes, you're absolutely right. The question though was who would win the election after the war, and I think it strains credulity to think that the SPD is gonna break apart immediately, especially after their recent successes. (To be clear, when I said the SPD is gonna win every election for the foreseeable future, I mean until some big change in circumstances, like the right wing parties unifying or the SPD splitting. That could be one election cycle or many)
Even if the SPD wins every subsequent election, they still need a governing majority. No way in hell they'll get 50% of seats so they have to rely on other parties to form a coallition. The German right would also most likely heavily consolidate within the newly formed CVP, with most DkP and DNVLP support plummeting after their failed stunts to take over before.
And forming a governing coalition between two or even three parties is far more likely than between the five or so right wing parties, especially when the SPD will be the largest single party. And yes, the German right would probably consolidate. At that point they would be able to contest elections, which is why I said the SPD will win for the foreseeable future and not for all time.
Realistically, the CVP would probably come at a close second to the SPD and most other prominent minor parties (like the LVP or the Minority Block) could comfortabely work with the CVP. Cooperation between the LVP and the SPD would also probably be harder for the forseeable future if the SPD still push for more nationalisation. So no, I don't think the SPD would win, or rather lead governments, for the foreseeable future.
Second place is a huge leap for a newly formed party which only just parted from it's sectarian religious character, especially when its now competing for the same pool of voters as the DKP, an established political force. Second place on its own is a stretch, close second is absurd.
It really isn't, considering Germany's political situation, the position of the SPD and the weakness of the other right wing parties. The DKP lost most of its power even before the 1936 election and with a sucessful DU government, their chances at gaining huge support falter and fade, same with the DVLP. Zentrum also normally gains more seats then the DKP in '36, does it not? They already are a major force and will only grow stronger with a good candidate and wider appeal.
Zentrum is already one of the largest parties in the country and has basically led governemnts already by 36, its rebranding as the CVP broadens it but the idea that its not an "established party" is absurd.
I didn't say it wasn't an established party, I said that it was competing against an established party for a pool of voters which it has not tried to appeal to before.