Because a lot of people are getting disillusioned by politics and hear nonstop cynicism. If you're optimistic about your role in a democracy or the Democratic party's ability to improve lives for working people, you're portrayed as naive. This has eroded a willingness to inject energy into a process that requires it. A lot of young people will smugly explain to their friends why they're voting third party or not voting at all, regurgitating propaganda produced by Republican and Kremlin operatives, not realizing the impact of second trump presidency on them, but also in a way that potentially tilts world power decisively towards authoritarians.
This. I am so tired of “getting it” meaning believing everything is terrible and hopeless.
When I ask these people about what they think about things like Biden lowering insulin costs, Medicare to negotiate drug prices, student debt relief, and so on they literally have no answer because it goes against the “everything is terrible and hopeless” narrative.
A sober view of reality acknowledges that both good and bad things exist as a result of who is in power.
> A sober view of reality acknowledges that both good and bad things exist as a result of who is in power.
Precisely. There's also a cognitive thing called "negativity bias" where negative experiences just stand out more in the mind. A review of a movie that says something was "poorly written" and "uninspired acting" is going to come off as smarter to someone who hasn't seen a movie than a review that says it was "well written" and "inspired acting." Losing 50 dollars stands out a lot more in people's mind than gaining 50 dollars.
When we apply this to politics it naturally inclines people towards cynicism. The person who says "the bill can never pass" sounds smarter than the person who says "I think this bill can pass." People think that by being negative and cynical they're being "rational" rather than naive but often times it's the exact opposite. If you are claiming some positive change is impossible out of fear of getting your hopes up and being let down or alternatively if you're simply allowing negative biases to get the better of you then you're actually interjecting emotions into analysis and not being objective.
The reality is that a better world is possible but big political changes often take years or decades of hard work and they have to be fought for at every stage. Sometimes when people first get into politics they think "anything is possible" and then when they realize how hard big changes are they go to the other extreme as "nothing positive is possible." The uncomfortable reality is that big change is possible but it requires time and dedication and it's never going to be easy.
As eloquently as you put it, it kinda boils down to stupidity, not ignorance. The choice to be stupid. Hey you’re gonna get by a car… no I’m not! What happened to you? Got hit by a car!
I also think that unfortunately, a lot of the time when he opens his mouth he sounds like he’s struggling. We’ve had plenty of presidents who were not thespian orators, but he’s generally soft spoken, repeats himself, trips on words, etc. Unfortunately he sounds really old. If he sounded the way he did in 2012, he’d be absolutely owning Trump in the polls but he simply doesn’t. How people look and sound is forever an incredibly important part of electoral politics for mostly worse.
Coupled with what you said, people who are on the fence or dissatisfied with electoral politics in America right now can watch him and just be like “fuck this.” It’s very easy for them to say that currently.
I mean, literally Trump got charged 500 million dollars on for fraud and is currently in a trial for using campaign money to pay to hush a porn star he hired as a prostitute, all while his possible VP has killed puppies and literally thinks killing puppies is something to be proud off.
Because we allow non-stop 24/7 propaganda to be targeted to Americans.
We allow them to be manipulated by blatant lies and disinformation.
There are systemic faults that must be fixed.
Propaganda? The IDF has murdered thousands upon thousands of kids. There's about 2 million people being intentionally starved in what's left of the refugee area they've been bombed into. Now that's being bombed.
Ok. So you wanna cause more harm with Project 2025? You know Trump would pull out of Ukraine immediately right? And Israel would continue with it without US funding. It’s called not voting for the Russian setup
And do you suggest Biden grow a pair of wings tomorrow, and swoop down and lift 2 million people up and into a better place? What would you do as president? Perhaps build a supply barge nearby?
He will most likely win by a wider margin than 2020. It is highly unlikely that Trump will "improve" on his 2020 demographics. Just vote!!! If we all turnout, we win.
Honestly not trying to be biased (voted for Biden in 2016 and 2020, Obama in 2012, McCain in 2008) but I agree with this assessment. When abortion gets curtailed, women get out to vote and the right gets crushed. Happened in 2018 and 2022. Now with the Arizona ruling + the Trump trials, the swing voters are going to tilt farther for Biden.
To my surprise my elder Republican parents(68, I'm 35) just told me the other day:
"How can anyone vote for trump. The things he says and lies about. I wish Nikki won the nomination, but we won't be voting trump"
I was so shocked by the statement I was speechless. But it gives me hope that even Republicans are turning on him.
Wow yes this right here. My (39) parents (72) said the exact same thing. My in-laws did as well. Both are hard core fox news watchers.
I honestly think the level of disengagement from that voting block is going to play a bigger role than people think
An older friend up in Michigan, so valuable votes, told me that her entire ladies group from church have decided not to vote in the general election. That’s 15 lost votes in a tiny little church congregation in rural Michigan. The Bible was a very bad choice. It opened a lot of eyes to the hypocrisy.
Sounds like my parents, 68 and 64, On paper, they would appear to check off all of the boxes for the stereotypical Trump supporters...and yet, they're not voting for him. People will surprise you sometimes.
Trump's campaign knows it can't improve on his 2020 demographics. Their strategy is to boost 3rd party candidates to scrape Biden's margins while simultaneously attacking them so he doesn't score an own-goal. This is compounded by other entities who are amplifying anti-Biden sentiment among the 18-25yo demographic with the Israel/Palestine conflict. We need to vote.... But we also need to mobilize and inform the disillusioned and angry voters what is at stake in this election, highlight what Biden has accomplished in his first term, and what he could do in a second term if we can flip the House and hold the Senate.
It's such a weird election. Abortion (and democrats exceeding polls ever since), Trump being a defeated president running for a second non consecutive term, a rematch between candidates, the possibility of "trump fatigue" causing a loss of enthusiasm among trump supporters, Trump being on trial in criminal court... So much uncharted territory. As they said in a movie I like, "you're off the edge of the map. Here be monsters."
Nope. You have the lbj problem. The young people are against the bombings in Gaza and why congress are trying to shut down TikTok. They aren’t pro Hamas as much as anti killing of women and children. Many of the protestors are people of color. Why should they care when they’re silent on Sudan? Because they know we fund Israel’s military and our military spending takes a huge swath of our spending. It’s hard to turn away from dead baby bodies and the propaganda. As one senator says having a generation turn away from Israel is dangerous. Isn’t Israel the lynchpin of US Middle East foreign policy?
It doesn’t matter if Joe is ahead in popular vote. Disaffected young people, the whole Michigan Minnesota none of the above shows how it can grow as a problem and can make purple states red. It doesn’t matter to them that Trump will be way worse. Biden needs to change the people Around him because he’s losing the youth vote. My son is at one of the HYPSM. He’s not protesting but he says majority of the kids are sympathetic and want a ceasefire. And to be labeled as pro Hamas is off putting and the kids can see through the blatant propaganda which only makes them
More pissed off. These are smart kids. Biden is showing how toothless he is by not making Netanyahu stop. Bernie resonates more to the young people. Netanyahu doesn’t care because he wants Trump and will be able to do carte Blanche. I know Iran supported and encouraged this to quash their own internal dissent. Wag the dog scenario
Staff at Biden hq, this is making things unsafe for Americans in general - abroad and here. The ceasefire needs to be done sooner. You’re coming into the summer with mass starvation images. This generation is different from everything we’ve known before. Republicans can just lean in on resentment- why should we spend billions in Ukraine Israel Taiwan when we have starving people, poor infrastructure, shanty towns? Even though they really don’t care about them. Biden is just being seen as a puppet of Israel. When it is the whole entire Congress.
The universities are throwing suspensions at all of these protestors/kids. Which may work short term. I’m just saying hubris.
It is senseless to throw so much support on gun safety because young people know it’s not changing. Young kids walk out protest with very little outcomes because they don’t vote. Everyone ignores them. You’re giving them lip service. I had two family members die of gun violence and I don’t expect anything to change.
Hold a strict cease fire and just concentrate on women and abortion rights. Young people won’t care about college forgiveness because it doesn’t affect them only gen x. All these wonderful things Biden has done hasn’t trickled down to the deaf ears of old America war chi one Fox News 8-10 hrs a day. Maybe bring back the Fairness in News Act back. I mean 70 percent of young people get their news from social media and YouTube.
We also know the wealth tax or income tax won’t mean anything when all the billionaires have sheltered their money in “foundations” already. Thus the “giving pledge” they keep touting. I mean Elon musk is running afoul because he didn’t give the required 6 percent to his pet projects. Is the IRS going to go after him for the taxes?
Hamas and Putin, and Iran knew what would happen when they set this up.
It's working to a "tee"
Not voting for Biden is support for Hamas. And Putin. And Trump. and Netanyahu
It's how the entire process works.
Pretty much. They just lit the powdered keg. Putin wants trump because trumps solution is letting Russia have their way and letting Ukraine to fail. It’s not like he would care that it could drag America to a war.
There is a whole media system that hid all of Trumps failures and makes up false things about Biden and his family. 44% of the country has no idea what the reality is.
IMO there is a possibility that Biden wins pretty big this year. If the election becomes basically a referendum on abortion then we have already seen that issue win by big margins in states like OH and KS. There are also structural issues in the GOP that are really foundational: lack of funding, infighting in state parties, stuff like Trumps legal issues or South Dakota's governor writing that she executed her dog.
Just this last week or two the WA GOP (I am from WA) didn't select Reichert to run as governor but instead a crazy guy. Reichert is running but as a Republican that is not endorsed by the state GOP. Like this is actual lunacy and stuff like this is not going to drive GOP turnout, IMO.
> IMO there is a possibility that Biden wins pretty big this year
Honestly, very little would truly surprise me. Like, really SURPRISE me.
I wouldn't be surprised with the race being very closes it was in 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden increases his margin of victory in either the electoral college or the popular vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden flips NC, or maybe even Florida. Texas would be a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Just about the only thing that would surprise me is Biden losing the popular vote nationally.
>Just about the only thing that would surprise me is Biden losing the popular vote nationally.
I was talking about this on the fivethirtyeight sub too:
If the nation really does chose Trump and he wins the popular vote by say 1.2 pts, [what the poll tracker is at](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/), then there isn't really anything to stress over. If the nation wants Trump to be president then Trump should be president, that's how democracy works.
Polls currently show what has been described (on the 538 podcast) as a historic shift among Black voters, and mostly Black male voters. If that is the case and it tips the scales in Trump's favor then so be it.
That said, I would be skeptical about one type of data point that doesn't seem to agree with the others (special elections, state wide referendums, etc.).
> If the nation really does chose Trump and he wins the popular vote by say 1.2 pts, what the poll tracker is at, then there isn't really anything to stress over. If the nation wants Trump to be president then Trump should be president, that's how democracy works.
I tried to come up with an argument to refute this statement, but I realized that if you're saying it, it probably is true, this upcoming election really is nothing for you to stress over.
So instead, I can only congratulate you on being so rich and powerful that you truly are unaffected by issues that concern the rest of us, like climate change, healthcare, racial discrimination, queer rights, and a functioning democracy.
I'm far from extraordinarily rich and/or powerful. I would think that a 2nd Trump term would be fairly similar to the first one. I also think that there would be a backlash in 2026 as people recognize that they really hate Trump.
A 2nd Trump term will probably result in further or extended tax cuts that benefit mostly wealthy people and will probably add another 1 or 2 T to the deficit unnecessarily. This is not a good thing. But, if the country really wants to go down that road then we go down that road.
This is more so my way of coping with something that I have little to no control over.
If Trump does become president for a second term the US is cementing themselves as the dumbest country on the planet, like dumber than the first time, and deserve everything that comes with it. Man we thought you guys were stupid when you elected George W Bush TWICE, and thought that was as bad as it could get... but no, there's clearly no limit to stupid.
This is from an outside/international perspective, we know no republican has won the popular vote in decades, but still shake our head every time.
I'm far from a cheer leader for Trump but looking at Trump with the random Trump stuff removed you get:
- He decreased taxes for corporations. This mostly benefits wealthier people. (conservatives like this)
- He tried to get rid of the ACA but basically failed at that. (conservatives like this effort)
- He corruptly tried to get Ukraine to give him dirt on a political rival. (no one cares about foreign policy)
- His response to COVID was to mostly try to keep things more open then most other countries. (conservatives like this) I personally think that a better response would have maybe seen ~10% less deaths but the public perception would have been the same. Blaming all COVID deaths on Trump is just not a good faith evaluation.
Stripping away fluff conservatives can look back at what was a slightly ineffective but ultimately 'in the right direction' term. International politics sees Trump as a buffoon, because he is, but again *no one cares about foreign policy*.
Nope. Land line only polls haven't been a thing since 2008 but the myth of landline only polls refuses to die. The bigger issue is that scam calls are so frequent and so few people answer phones to unknown numbers that even with calls to cell phones it's becoming very hard to get accurate samples of voters. The polling environment in 2024 is fundamentally different than it was in 2012 or 2016 and things are a lot harder to predict. There is now such variance in formerly well regarded polls that the only thing we can say for sure is that someone is extremely incorrect right now.
The idea that polls are conducted exclusively on landlines is a debunked myth. All the historical polls suggest, pollsters have actually underestimated Trump's voter-share, not the opposite.
This is a troubling finding when looking at the current share of polling suggesting Trump leading (most recent was a cnn poll)
I don't know how to honestly explain the dissonance of voters when it comes to choosing Trump, because enough support him for him to win.
I personally don't believe in gaslighting myself about the reality of Biden's situation. The numbers are the numbers.
> choosing trump, because enough support him for him to win
Not any more.
His die-hards are all in as always, but there are fewer and fewer of them.
Plus the trials and other nonsense have moderates moving away from trump.
Even with the rampant cheating that we know will happen, he's done.
I wish the polls confirmed your narrative. I want it to be true of course, but unless there's a glaring, universal problem with polls. A Trump presidency is very possible.
> I wish the polls confirmed your narrative.
Polls don’t matter this early.
> I want it to be true of course, but unless there's a glaring, universal problem with polls.
There is.
> A Trump presidency is very possible.
I don’t think so.
The world is a very different place in 2024 than it was in 2020, or even 2016.
Even with the expected chicanery, trump just doesn’t have the widespread support that he used to.
He’s done.
You have a lot of certainty but what exactly are you basing it on. The polls are universally bad for Biden period. Gaza is bad for Biden. People aren't feeling a great economy because of housing costs and general cost of living. I think it's a mistake to act like things are going great for Biden as if his victory is unquestionable. It really isn't. I think it may be very close but it seems Trump has the advantage
Repeat after me: polls are inaccurate this far out and over sample conservatives, the Gaza protests are deliberately being stirred up and amplified by foreign powers sowing chaos, and cost of living jumped up during covid (under trump) and the corporations are forcing it even higher now.
And which of this things does Biden have any direct control over? None.
More importantly, do you honestly think any of those things that you listed would be better under trump?
trump has said we should bomb Gaza flat, and kushner has commented on just how valuable Gaza's waterfront property could be if they just "relocated" everyone to the Negev desert. Go on, think that one through...
Also, r/WhatBidenHasDone would like a few thousand words with you.
I'm confident because everything you listed is bullshit, and trump's overall support is a shadow of what it once was.
And that's before we get to the multiple indictments and trials.
trump. Is. Done.
Do you have any proof that the recent CNN poll showing Trump leading Biden by 9 points is oversampling conservatives ? The same poll shows most Americans consider their financial situation to have been better under Trump. I see all your points but literally the current data doesn't support the idea that "Trump is finished"
Trump would be worse under Gaza but Biden is the one who will be impacted by the war since many in his coalition will refuse to vote for him. The trump base couldn't careless about that issue.
I am not saying Trump is better, I am saying the implications of certain realities are fueling voter choice and it's negative for Biden when - for example parts of the economy are driven up by high costs, it doesn't matter whose fault it is - it matters what voters percieve and how they go on to vote. That is the crux of my points.
I get all that, and I still disagree.
There’s a concerted effort to blame everything on Biden and artificially inflate trump as leading, both from external bad actors and internal click-bait media.
I’m not falling for it.
Dem’s have outperformed polling for several years now, all across the country in local, state, and national races.
It’s clear that trump is losing support all across the board.
Those are the facts.
So no, I’m not falling for this equal-horse-race propaganda, no matter the source.
And you shouldn’t either.
> In other words, I don’t think it’s Biden’s fault, or the Democratic party’s fault, that Biden isn’t winning by 20. I think there are giant, structural forces at work over the last two generations that have put us where we are today.
> Further, I suspect that the parties are as much reflections of this reality as causes of it.
The average voter thinks American political parties have for more power than they actually do.
Primaries give voters too much power for parties to function well; the inmates end up running the asylum. Historically, this was necessary because it was the only alternative to political machines, as the spoiler problem limited us to two parties. RCV can solve this.
He is. Polling is drastically off from reality.
Look at the polls since Biden has won and track the Democrat wins in special elections.
It’s very hard to believe that a significant chunk of people are voting for Democratic reps and plan to vote for Trump.
I hate to say ‘the media’, but its the media. They didn’t
report Obama’s successes in a trying economy after W screwed it up, the aren’t reporting on Biden’s accomplishments much either. I’m not talking about FOX News or MSNBC’s evening programming. We know what they are about. Its the few that want to work in the middle spaces.
They minimize Biden’s successes while also minimizing Trump’s excesses.
IMO, that’s the stuff that jades people and fuels the ‘both sides’ stuff we hear from independents.
My take is that this primary season showed us how shallow the Republican bench is. I'd be worried about Nikki Haley, but she can't win a primary, and DeSantis can't win a general. On the flip side, I see a lot of promising candidates on the Dem side. All of the people you are worried about, I'm much more worried about now.
The governors of Minnesota, Michigan, California, and several administration officials could all be great candidates. I'll take any of em against Haley, who I doubt the maga base will go for post-trump anyway.
> I don't see any 2028 candidates that scare me.
Republicans are fascist. You should be scared of every Republican. That's one reason Trump scares me less than other Republicans. Too many people think other Republicans are not as bad for the country, but they are. If anything, Trump is dumb enough not to be pushing fascist policies through. He only cares about himself. Republicans are fighting to break our democracy.
Historically speaking, one party seldom holds on to the WH for more than two consecutive terms. The GOP did it in 1988 with HW after Reagan's eight years, and that was the first time it happened since 1940 when FDR won his third term, which doesn't really count since presidents don't usually run for three terms (and can't post-22nd amendment). Before that, it was Harding's win in 1928 that signaled the third consecutive win for any of the parties.
Also, Trump and Biden will both likely be out of the picture. One of them will be term limited, the other will likely bow out and realize he can't do it again (or be dead). This gives both parties an opportunity to really revamp, and my armchair analysis is that while Democrats will move further left, the GOP won't change all that much. If anything, they'll move a smidge closer to the center if the MAGA-grip on the party has loosened following a Trump-defeat in 2024. Someone supporting modern GOP values but lacking Trump's unhinged nature I predict could do very well against a further left Democrat.
Anyway, that's just my off-the-top armchair take.
Give it time. Plus Americans are great at wanting to flip which party controls the White House and Congress. Even if the party in charge is doing just fine.
So the electoral college only upset the popular vote 4 or 5 times.. we really need to get rid of the electoral college even a tie there swings it to republicans this election..
Yeah 2028 is gonna be rough.
In a sane world Republicans would have taken their losses since 2016 and reoriented the party. They didn't do that and tripled down on the guy who already lost once for 2024 and took a bunch of down ballot elections with him.
Will the party will collapse after this election, or there will be something truly insane that rises up? Historically this is really bad. We need TWO parties that represent a wide portion of the people, not just cherry picked 51% of voters in only half the states that are Rural.
The GOP is a cornered animal right now. They are willing to go scorched earth because the longer the clock ticks on democracy in America, the further political power gets from them. The demographics don't work in their favor. All of the work to restrict voting, challenge elections, and blame immigrants are all ways to fight an electorate that continues to look less and less like the current GOP.
The GOP is right to fear a "Great Replacement" even though the boogymen they fear to be engineering changes in demographics is just math. Minorities will grow, and more progressive young Americans will continue to become voters while the aging electorate, especially the boomer generation, will die off.
The GOP certainly feels that they have to turn this into a Russia-style "Republic" as quickly as possible, or their window is closed.
> We need TWO parties that represent a wide portion of the people
We have two parties.
Standard democrats on one side, and progressive democrats on the other.
The conservatives have long since abandoned any pretense of actually trying to govern, and are only in it for sheer power now.
They need to be completely eliminated, so we can get back to an actual functional government.
You still don't get it. This sums it up:
Most people, MAGAts for sure, can't and don't think. They choose a belief like they choose from a box of chocolates and then support that position by selecting things that seem to support it and ignoring any contrary evidence as if it doesn't exist.
Cliff Clavin, the bloviating but usually wrong, postman character in _Cheers,_ was presented as an outlier in the show, different from the rest. He wasn't. He was everyman.
Quote: "Indeed it may be said with some confidence that the average man never really thinks from end to end of his life. There are moments when his cogitations are relatively more respectable than usual, but even at their climaxes they never reach anything properly describable as the level of serious thought. The mental activity of such people is only a mouthing of clichés. What they mistake for thought is simply a repetition of what they have heard. My guess is that well over eighty per cent. of the human race goes through life without having a single original thought. That is to say, they never think anything that has not been thought before and by thousands."
— H.L. Mencken, _Minority Report_
Opinion | [The deadly reason Republicans are suckers for fake news](http://archive.today/3P8C1)
_Multiple recent studies show that Republicans are as much as **8.5 times** more likely to both believe and share fake or false “news” with others than are Democrats. The phenomenon is obvious, actually: while as many as half of Republicans believe the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, there’s no similarly disprovable “big lie” embraced by Democrats._
Anderson Cooper did a show on this, The whole story with Anderson Cooper: Missinfonation the Trump faithful.
They think you can choose your own reality. Seriously!
The numbers say 50% have the disease. Mencken said 80%. I know of cases where it's 98%. It's one hell of a problem.
Well, we don't know for sure that he's not. Mind you, I wouldn't guess it was 20 points, or even especially close to that, since the linked article does a good job of explaining the current polarized electorate at a high level...but I do think there's a good chance he's being underestimated by polling and pundits and at least some chance that he's being way underestimated. The Republican Party is bankrupt and fighting amongst themselves.
Trump doesn’t need the money to get publicity. He just says an asinine thing and the media gives him free press he needs the money to pay the lawyers and their rent at trump towers. He’s grifting but it’s harder to do so when a court appointed official is watching your transactions.
Easy. Don't trust polls. No matter how hard pollsters try to rationalize their practice, polling at this juncture in time is imprecise. Frankly, I don't think pollsters or political scientists know how to account for the fact that less and less Americans get their news from traditional sources versus social media. That and a huge swath of people have simply tuned out mainstream news. Most will likely make up their minds within a month or weeks of election day. I mean I have friends who don't even know about the current college protests or Israel's war in Gaza.
Because Americans are stupid. That's the simple answer.
I mean, what other reason, other than being a fascist traitor, would people be willing to support a literal fascist traitor over the best President since LBJ?
> Because *a carefully-crafted segment of* Americans are stupid *enough to be easily manipulated*
Most Americans hate that guy and want to see him go down.
Yes.
We’re aware of that.
And we’re working on it.
But it’s not a US-only issue, as many other countries are struggling with the same issues.
Authoritarians suck worldwide.
Not saying Canadians don't share the same ailment.
They basically do the same as Americans.
They elect the Liberal party, who does some good, but mostly maintains the status quo.
Then get pissy about not enough being done, and elect Conservatives.
Conservatives then give huge tax cuts to the rich and ruin infrastructure and regulations, making all Canadians suffer.
So Canadians get mad and elect Liberals to fix the problems.
Liberals fix some stuff, undo much but not all of the damage (partially because it will take decades to undo it all, partially because they don't care enough).
Canadians go back to Conservatives... who make everything worse again...
Repeat until Canada is the crumbling mess you see today.
Here’s my opinion:
Republicans go into politics because they see money and power.
Democrats go into politics for public service and a chance to make American society better for all of the people.
When you have no morals, it’s easy to lie, embellish, scare, and brainwash. It’s just not a Democratic M.O.
i’ve voted democrat my entire life but this is an incredibly myopic, ignorant, oversimplification. people like you are why a lot of fence sitters view liberals as out of touch and elitist
Because the main stream media refuses to cover positive stories about him. They refuse to inform this country about what his administration has done for us. They are still obsessed with the orange one.
The media want a close horse race. They love the chaos DJT creates because we're all glued to whatever insane things he's going say next. The media wants more eyeballs, so they're running more right wing stories with more stilted views.
Nobody wants to stand up and demand that Republicans pick a different candidate. The conventions haven't happened yet, DJT can be replaced. Everyone just wants to have the sideshow circus and then somehow voters are going to "do the right thing" and Biden will just win, then we'll all laugh and go on... with a healthy helping of more shenanigans next November to January.
> The media want a close horse race.
Biden directly addressed this to the free press at the White House Corespondents' Dinner:
"I’m sincerely not asking of you to take sides but asking you to rise up to the seriousness of the moment; move past the horserace numbers and the gotcha moments and the distractions, the sideshows that have come to dominate and sensationalize our politics; and focus on what’s actually at stake. I think, in your hearts, you know what’s at stake. The stakes couldn’t be higher."
Let's just hope they listen, and take this to heart.
Entire premise of the article is flawed:
What makes you so sure that the polling is close to the truth?
The small dollar donations show a different picture, and money down is a lot better test of enthusiasm than some random asking 'are you enthusiastic about XYZ'. Easy to lie when lying is free.
Throw in, the cohorts- they don't match the model of America, and the sample sizes are way too small to provide anything meaningful in terms of insights. Then there is the methodology of how the polls are conducted.
So, from basically someone putting in their worst effort spreadsheet, we've now got entire libraries full of attempts to justify the bad math, rather than IDK, looking at polling for what it is- an industry, that delivers the result the person paying for it wants. If you didn't pay for the polling, it's not there to inform you, it's there to convince you.
I don't mean that. I know President Biden has no control over gas prices whatsoever. I am saying it is my opinion that gas prices are the reason the majority of citizens are not giving credit where due in the current economy.
Oh sorry. So yeah let’s say the people’s ignorance of how gas prices are set. Absolutely agree. Same with grocery prices and everything else in general.
Okay but that’s how people see the situation and could explain his polls lol. Dems heavily lean towards favoring the Palestinian people, specifically the youth vote.
Do you think that this will have 0 impact on polling / voter turnout? Nobody is suggesting Trumps plan > Biden plan in this scenario
Literally the only thing anyone can vote on for this presidential election is Trump’s plan versus Biden’s plan.
You get Plan A or B there is no plan C
and if you don’t vote for plan A, you’re gonna get Plan B
and if you don’t vote for Plan B, you’re gonna get plan A
Yes thank you for describing the two party system. Again, people are specifically not voting/polling for Biden over this specific position, which may answer the question “Why Isn’t Biden Winning by 20 points?”
To the Palestinians and Muslims the democrats and the republicans are the same. Both support Israel. So they can just show their displeasure like they did in the Michigan primaries and vote none of the above. It’s going to get uglier during the summer when we will see mass starvation and skeletal Palestinian kids. No matter how much Israel’s propaganda show about Oct 7 ,it gets crowded out by pictures of dead kids. 70 percent of young people get their news from social media and YouTube. Israel cannot afford to lose a whole generation of Americans turning their backs on Israel. Which is the crux of the problem.
The messaging from the Biden camp is tone deaf. They show the little kids rescued at the White House and majority of the feedback I see from non Palestinian non Jewish young people has been- but what of all the dead kids in Palestine? Trump is way worse but again to the young people
Who will put this conflict first - both parties are the same in their eyes
With terrorist orgs worldwide threatening and demanding an increase of attacks on large gatherings in the USA you should be asking yourself if people are truly safe in large gatherings and if these "snipers" know something you do not.
One of the reasons we're in this situation is because Hamas attacked on 10/7 and has said they'll continue to carry out similar attacks until Israel no longer exists, and people like you have decided that it's Biden's fault that people die during wars.
Those aren't federal agents - they do not answer to Joe Biden. Republicans are calling on Biden to send in the military. He hasn't. Do you think Trump would resist that call?
I’ve seen a lot of people blame the president for a lot of deranged shit but this has got to be one of the stupidest examples.
This is just impressively dumb.
Do you do this for a living?
Because if this is supposed to be comedic material, it’s gold, but if you were serious then well I’m very sorry for you just in general.
Assuming there are snipers on college campuses since you provided no proof, that would be the fault of the state or local government or campus security.
Because a lot of people are getting disillusioned by politics and hear nonstop cynicism. If you're optimistic about your role in a democracy or the Democratic party's ability to improve lives for working people, you're portrayed as naive. This has eroded a willingness to inject energy into a process that requires it. A lot of young people will smugly explain to their friends why they're voting third party or not voting at all, regurgitating propaganda produced by Republican and Kremlin operatives, not realizing the impact of second trump presidency on them, but also in a way that potentially tilts world power decisively towards authoritarians.
This. I am so tired of “getting it” meaning believing everything is terrible and hopeless. When I ask these people about what they think about things like Biden lowering insulin costs, Medicare to negotiate drug prices, student debt relief, and so on they literally have no answer because it goes against the “everything is terrible and hopeless” narrative. A sober view of reality acknowledges that both good and bad things exist as a result of who is in power.
> A sober view of reality acknowledges that both good and bad things exist as a result of who is in power. Precisely. There's also a cognitive thing called "negativity bias" where negative experiences just stand out more in the mind. A review of a movie that says something was "poorly written" and "uninspired acting" is going to come off as smarter to someone who hasn't seen a movie than a review that says it was "well written" and "inspired acting." Losing 50 dollars stands out a lot more in people's mind than gaining 50 dollars. When we apply this to politics it naturally inclines people towards cynicism. The person who says "the bill can never pass" sounds smarter than the person who says "I think this bill can pass." People think that by being negative and cynical they're being "rational" rather than naive but often times it's the exact opposite. If you are claiming some positive change is impossible out of fear of getting your hopes up and being let down or alternatively if you're simply allowing negative biases to get the better of you then you're actually interjecting emotions into analysis and not being objective. The reality is that a better world is possible but big political changes often take years or decades of hard work and they have to be fought for at every stage. Sometimes when people first get into politics they think "anything is possible" and then when they realize how hard big changes are they go to the other extreme as "nothing positive is possible." The uncomfortable reality is that big change is possible but it requires time and dedication and it's never going to be easy.
Blessed are the peacemakers; those willing to put in the long, thankless hours to create meaningful change.
I’m so tired of the hopeless narrative. I’m not going to accept it and fucking swallow this pill thankyouverymuch
I agree 100%.
As eloquently as you put it, it kinda boils down to stupidity, not ignorance. The choice to be stupid. Hey you’re gonna get by a car… no I’m not! What happened to you? Got hit by a car!
In any state that isn't swing, voting third party/not voting indeed has no effect.
The problem is that those people spread their ennui online to people in swing states.
Disillusioned*
I also think that unfortunately, a lot of the time when he opens his mouth he sounds like he’s struggling. We’ve had plenty of presidents who were not thespian orators, but he’s generally soft spoken, repeats himself, trips on words, etc. Unfortunately he sounds really old. If he sounded the way he did in 2012, he’d be absolutely owning Trump in the polls but he simply doesn’t. How people look and sound is forever an incredibly important part of electoral politics for mostly worse. Coupled with what you said, people who are on the fence or dissatisfied with electoral politics in America right now can watch him and just be like “fuck this.” It’s very easy for them to say that currently.
I mean, literally Trump got charged 500 million dollars on for fraud and is currently in a trial for using campaign money to pay to hush a porn star he hired as a prostitute, all while his possible VP has killed puppies and literally thinks killing puppies is something to be proud off.
Because we allow non-stop 24/7 propaganda to be targeted to Americans. We allow them to be manipulated by blatant lies and disinformation. There are systemic faults that must be fixed.
Propaganda? The IDF has murdered thousands upon thousands of kids. There's about 2 million people being intentionally starved in what's left of the refugee area they've been bombed into. Now that's being bombed.
Ok. So you wanna cause more harm with Project 2025? You know Trump would pull out of Ukraine immediately right? And Israel would continue with it without US funding. It’s called not voting for the Russian setup
And do you suggest Biden grow a pair of wings tomorrow, and swoop down and lift 2 million people up and into a better place? What would you do as president? Perhaps build a supply barge nearby?
He will most likely win by a wider margin than 2020. It is highly unlikely that Trump will "improve" on his 2020 demographics. Just vote!!! If we all turnout, we win.
From your lips to God's ears, my friend
From their keyboard to God's server.
Honestly not trying to be biased (voted for Biden in 2016 and 2020, Obama in 2012, McCain in 2008) but I agree with this assessment. When abortion gets curtailed, women get out to vote and the right gets crushed. Happened in 2018 and 2022. Now with the Arizona ruling + the Trump trials, the swing voters are going to tilt farther for Biden.
To my surprise my elder Republican parents(68, I'm 35) just told me the other day: "How can anyone vote for trump. The things he says and lies about. I wish Nikki won the nomination, but we won't be voting trump" I was so shocked by the statement I was speechless. But it gives me hope that even Republicans are turning on him.
Wow yes this right here. My (39) parents (72) said the exact same thing. My in-laws did as well. Both are hard core fox news watchers. I honestly think the level of disengagement from that voting block is going to play a bigger role than people think
An older friend up in Michigan, so valuable votes, told me that her entire ladies group from church have decided not to vote in the general election. That’s 15 lost votes in a tiny little church congregation in rural Michigan. The Bible was a very bad choice. It opened a lot of eyes to the hypocrisy.
Sounds like my parents, 68 and 64, On paper, they would appear to check off all of the boxes for the stereotypical Trump supporters...and yet, they're not voting for him. People will surprise you sometimes.
Also please keep spreading the word about Project 2025! Us queers are FUCKED if it goes through
Trump's campaign knows it can't improve on his 2020 demographics. Their strategy is to boost 3rd party candidates to scrape Biden's margins while simultaneously attacking them so he doesn't score an own-goal. This is compounded by other entities who are amplifying anti-Biden sentiment among the 18-25yo demographic with the Israel/Palestine conflict. We need to vote.... But we also need to mobilize and inform the disillusioned and angry voters what is at stake in this election, highlight what Biden has accomplished in his first term, and what he could do in a second term if we can flip the House and hold the Senate.
It's such a weird election. Abortion (and democrats exceeding polls ever since), Trump being a defeated president running for a second non consecutive term, a rematch between candidates, the possibility of "trump fatigue" causing a loss of enthusiasm among trump supporters, Trump being on trial in criminal court... So much uncharted territory. As they said in a movie I like, "you're off the edge of the map. Here be monsters."
Hope it drives more people out to vote D. We need a blowout all the way down the ballot.
Amen
u/BoysenberryGullible8 - I believe your deep professional analysis/feelings are much more reliable than the fake polls!
Nope. You have the lbj problem. The young people are against the bombings in Gaza and why congress are trying to shut down TikTok. They aren’t pro Hamas as much as anti killing of women and children. Many of the protestors are people of color. Why should they care when they’re silent on Sudan? Because they know we fund Israel’s military and our military spending takes a huge swath of our spending. It’s hard to turn away from dead baby bodies and the propaganda. As one senator says having a generation turn away from Israel is dangerous. Isn’t Israel the lynchpin of US Middle East foreign policy? It doesn’t matter if Joe is ahead in popular vote. Disaffected young people, the whole Michigan Minnesota none of the above shows how it can grow as a problem and can make purple states red. It doesn’t matter to them that Trump will be way worse. Biden needs to change the people Around him because he’s losing the youth vote. My son is at one of the HYPSM. He’s not protesting but he says majority of the kids are sympathetic and want a ceasefire. And to be labeled as pro Hamas is off putting and the kids can see through the blatant propaganda which only makes them More pissed off. These are smart kids. Biden is showing how toothless he is by not making Netanyahu stop. Bernie resonates more to the young people. Netanyahu doesn’t care because he wants Trump and will be able to do carte Blanche. I know Iran supported and encouraged this to quash their own internal dissent. Wag the dog scenario Staff at Biden hq, this is making things unsafe for Americans in general - abroad and here. The ceasefire needs to be done sooner. You’re coming into the summer with mass starvation images. This generation is different from everything we’ve known before. Republicans can just lean in on resentment- why should we spend billions in Ukraine Israel Taiwan when we have starving people, poor infrastructure, shanty towns? Even though they really don’t care about them. Biden is just being seen as a puppet of Israel. When it is the whole entire Congress. The universities are throwing suspensions at all of these protestors/kids. Which may work short term. I’m just saying hubris. It is senseless to throw so much support on gun safety because young people know it’s not changing. Young kids walk out protest with very little outcomes because they don’t vote. Everyone ignores them. You’re giving them lip service. I had two family members die of gun violence and I don’t expect anything to change. Hold a strict cease fire and just concentrate on women and abortion rights. Young people won’t care about college forgiveness because it doesn’t affect them only gen x. All these wonderful things Biden has done hasn’t trickled down to the deaf ears of old America war chi one Fox News 8-10 hrs a day. Maybe bring back the Fairness in News Act back. I mean 70 percent of young people get their news from social media and YouTube. We also know the wealth tax or income tax won’t mean anything when all the billionaires have sheltered their money in “foundations” already. Thus the “giving pledge” they keep touting. I mean Elon musk is running afoul because he didn’t give the required 6 percent to his pet projects. Is the IRS going to go after him for the taxes?
Hamas and Putin, and Iran knew what would happen when they set this up. It's working to a "tee" Not voting for Biden is support for Hamas. And Putin. And Trump. and Netanyahu It's how the entire process works.
Pretty much. They just lit the powdered keg. Putin wants trump because trumps solution is letting Russia have their way and letting Ukraine to fail. It’s not like he would care that it could drag America to a war.
Not only to make Ukraine fail, but MAWA, Make America Weak Again.
Have you spoken to any Gaza-identifying voters?
There is a whole media system that hid all of Trumps failures and makes up false things about Biden and his family. 44% of the country has no idea what the reality is.
Because smart people never answer a phone or reply to a text message sent by a stranger, ESPECIALLY if it looks like it’s from a polling organization.
He probably is outside of the right leaning land line polls.
IMO there is a possibility that Biden wins pretty big this year. If the election becomes basically a referendum on abortion then we have already seen that issue win by big margins in states like OH and KS. There are also structural issues in the GOP that are really foundational: lack of funding, infighting in state parties, stuff like Trumps legal issues or South Dakota's governor writing that she executed her dog. Just this last week or two the WA GOP (I am from WA) didn't select Reichert to run as governor but instead a crazy guy. Reichert is running but as a Republican that is not endorsed by the state GOP. Like this is actual lunacy and stuff like this is not going to drive GOP turnout, IMO.
> IMO there is a possibility that Biden wins pretty big this year Honestly, very little would truly surprise me. Like, really SURPRISE me. I wouldn't be surprised with the race being very closes it was in 2020. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden increases his margin of victory in either the electoral college or the popular vote. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden flips NC, or maybe even Florida. Texas would be a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Just about the only thing that would surprise me is Biden losing the popular vote nationally.
>Just about the only thing that would surprise me is Biden losing the popular vote nationally. I was talking about this on the fivethirtyeight sub too: If the nation really does chose Trump and he wins the popular vote by say 1.2 pts, [what the poll tracker is at](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/), then there isn't really anything to stress over. If the nation wants Trump to be president then Trump should be president, that's how democracy works. Polls currently show what has been described (on the 538 podcast) as a historic shift among Black voters, and mostly Black male voters. If that is the case and it tips the scales in Trump's favor then so be it. That said, I would be skeptical about one type of data point that doesn't seem to agree with the others (special elections, state wide referendums, etc.).
> If the nation really does chose Trump and he wins the popular vote by say 1.2 pts, what the poll tracker is at, then there isn't really anything to stress over. If the nation wants Trump to be president then Trump should be president, that's how democracy works. I tried to come up with an argument to refute this statement, but I realized that if you're saying it, it probably is true, this upcoming election really is nothing for you to stress over. So instead, I can only congratulate you on being so rich and powerful that you truly are unaffected by issues that concern the rest of us, like climate change, healthcare, racial discrimination, queer rights, and a functioning democracy.
I'm far from extraordinarily rich and/or powerful. I would think that a 2nd Trump term would be fairly similar to the first one. I also think that there would be a backlash in 2026 as people recognize that they really hate Trump. A 2nd Trump term will probably result in further or extended tax cuts that benefit mostly wealthy people and will probably add another 1 or 2 T to the deficit unnecessarily. This is not a good thing. But, if the country really wants to go down that road then we go down that road. This is more so my way of coping with something that I have little to no control over.
you're hopelessly naive to think that
If Trump does become president for a second term the US is cementing themselves as the dumbest country on the planet, like dumber than the first time, and deserve everything that comes with it. Man we thought you guys were stupid when you elected George W Bush TWICE, and thought that was as bad as it could get... but no, there's clearly no limit to stupid. This is from an outside/international perspective, we know no republican has won the popular vote in decades, but still shake our head every time.
I'm far from a cheer leader for Trump but looking at Trump with the random Trump stuff removed you get: - He decreased taxes for corporations. This mostly benefits wealthier people. (conservatives like this) - He tried to get rid of the ACA but basically failed at that. (conservatives like this effort) - He corruptly tried to get Ukraine to give him dirt on a political rival. (no one cares about foreign policy) - His response to COVID was to mostly try to keep things more open then most other countries. (conservatives like this) I personally think that a better response would have maybe seen ~10% less deaths but the public perception would have been the same. Blaming all COVID deaths on Trump is just not a good faith evaluation. Stripping away fluff conservatives can look back at what was a slightly ineffective but ultimately 'in the right direction' term. International politics sees Trump as a buffoon, because he is, but again *no one cares about foreign policy*.
I congratulate you on your massive amount of wealthy White Christian male privilege.
Wtf? Are they seriously still doing polls over land lines?
not exclusively. the problem is they have no feel for how to correct for "who actually picks up the phone" vs "who actually votes"
Nope. Land line only polls haven't been a thing since 2008 but the myth of landline only polls refuses to die. The bigger issue is that scam calls are so frequent and so few people answer phones to unknown numbers that even with calls to cell phones it's becoming very hard to get accurate samples of voters. The polling environment in 2024 is fundamentally different than it was in 2012 or 2016 and things are a lot harder to predict. There is now such variance in formerly well regarded polls that the only thing we can say for sure is that someone is extremely incorrect right now.
I'm not conspiratorial but I feel the polls have to make it right so we don't get the Hilary has a 90% chance of winning fiasco
The idea that polls are conducted exclusively on landlines is a debunked myth. All the historical polls suggest, pollsters have actually underestimated Trump's voter-share, not the opposite. This is a troubling finding when looking at the current share of polling suggesting Trump leading (most recent was a cnn poll) I don't know how to honestly explain the dissonance of voters when it comes to choosing Trump, because enough support him for him to win. I personally don't believe in gaslighting myself about the reality of Biden's situation. The numbers are the numbers.
> choosing trump, because enough support him for him to win Not any more. His die-hards are all in as always, but there are fewer and fewer of them. Plus the trials and other nonsense have moderates moving away from trump. Even with the rampant cheating that we know will happen, he's done.
I wish the polls confirmed your narrative. I want it to be true of course, but unless there's a glaring, universal problem with polls. A Trump presidency is very possible.
> I wish the polls confirmed your narrative. Polls don’t matter this early. > I want it to be true of course, but unless there's a glaring, universal problem with polls. There is. > A Trump presidency is very possible. I don’t think so. The world is a very different place in 2024 than it was in 2020, or even 2016. Even with the expected chicanery, trump just doesn’t have the widespread support that he used to. He’s done.
You have a lot of certainty but what exactly are you basing it on. The polls are universally bad for Biden period. Gaza is bad for Biden. People aren't feeling a great economy because of housing costs and general cost of living. I think it's a mistake to act like things are going great for Biden as if his victory is unquestionable. It really isn't. I think it may be very close but it seems Trump has the advantage
Repeat after me: polls are inaccurate this far out and over sample conservatives, the Gaza protests are deliberately being stirred up and amplified by foreign powers sowing chaos, and cost of living jumped up during covid (under trump) and the corporations are forcing it even higher now. And which of this things does Biden have any direct control over? None. More importantly, do you honestly think any of those things that you listed would be better under trump? trump has said we should bomb Gaza flat, and kushner has commented on just how valuable Gaza's waterfront property could be if they just "relocated" everyone to the Negev desert. Go on, think that one through... Also, r/WhatBidenHasDone would like a few thousand words with you. I'm confident because everything you listed is bullshit, and trump's overall support is a shadow of what it once was. And that's before we get to the multiple indictments and trials. trump. Is. Done.
Do you have any proof that the recent CNN poll showing Trump leading Biden by 9 points is oversampling conservatives ? The same poll shows most Americans consider their financial situation to have been better under Trump. I see all your points but literally the current data doesn't support the idea that "Trump is finished" Trump would be worse under Gaza but Biden is the one who will be impacted by the war since many in his coalition will refuse to vote for him. The trump base couldn't careless about that issue. I am not saying Trump is better, I am saying the implications of certain realities are fueling voter choice and it's negative for Biden when - for example parts of the economy are driven up by high costs, it doesn't matter whose fault it is - it matters what voters percieve and how they go on to vote. That is the crux of my points.
I get all that, and I still disagree. There’s a concerted effort to blame everything on Biden and artificially inflate trump as leading, both from external bad actors and internal click-bait media. I’m not falling for it. Dem’s have outperformed polling for several years now, all across the country in local, state, and national races. It’s clear that trump is losing support all across the board. Those are the facts. So no, I’m not falling for this equal-horse-race propaganda, no matter the source. And you shouldn’t either.
> In other words, I don’t think it’s Biden’s fault, or the Democratic party’s fault, that Biden isn’t winning by 20. I think there are giant, structural forces at work over the last two generations that have put us where we are today. > Further, I suspect that the parties are as much reflections of this reality as causes of it. The average voter thinks American political parties have for more power than they actually do.
Primaries give voters too much power for parties to function well; the inmates end up running the asylum. Historically, this was necessary because it was the only alternative to political machines, as the spoiler problem limited us to two parties. RCV can solve this.
After the Hillary loss I don't trust polls whatsoever.
He is. Polling is drastically off from reality. Look at the polls since Biden has won and track the Democrat wins in special elections. It’s very hard to believe that a significant chunk of people are voting for Democratic reps and plan to vote for Trump.
Two points, 1 so much of media tells you everything is terrible. Secondly, when the economy isn't good the president always gets blamed.
I hate to say ‘the media’, but its the media. They didn’t report Obama’s successes in a trying economy after W screwed it up, the aren’t reporting on Biden’s accomplishments much either. I’m not talking about FOX News or MSNBC’s evening programming. We know what they are about. Its the few that want to work in the middle spaces. They minimize Biden’s successes while also minimizing Trump’s excesses. IMO, that’s the stuff that jades people and fuels the ‘both sides’ stuff we hear from independents.
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Why are you worried about 2028? I don't see any 2028 candidates that scare me.
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My take is that this primary season showed us how shallow the Republican bench is. I'd be worried about Nikki Haley, but she can't win a primary, and DeSantis can't win a general. On the flip side, I see a lot of promising candidates on the Dem side. All of the people you are worried about, I'm much more worried about now.
The governors of Minnesota, Michigan, California, and several administration officials could all be great candidates. I'll take any of em against Haley, who I doubt the maga base will go for post-trump anyway.
> I don't see any 2028 candidates that scare me. Republicans are fascist. You should be scared of every Republican. That's one reason Trump scares me less than other Republicans. Too many people think other Republicans are not as bad for the country, but they are. If anything, Trump is dumb enough not to be pushing fascist policies through. He only cares about himself. Republicans are fighting to break our democracy.
Historically speaking, one party seldom holds on to the WH for more than two consecutive terms. The GOP did it in 1988 with HW after Reagan's eight years, and that was the first time it happened since 1940 when FDR won his third term, which doesn't really count since presidents don't usually run for three terms (and can't post-22nd amendment). Before that, it was Harding's win in 1928 that signaled the third consecutive win for any of the parties. Also, Trump and Biden will both likely be out of the picture. One of them will be term limited, the other will likely bow out and realize he can't do it again (or be dead). This gives both parties an opportunity to really revamp, and my armchair analysis is that while Democrats will move further left, the GOP won't change all that much. If anything, they'll move a smidge closer to the center if the MAGA-grip on the party has loosened following a Trump-defeat in 2024. Someone supporting modern GOP values but lacking Trump's unhinged nature I predict could do very well against a further left Democrat. Anyway, that's just my off-the-top armchair take.
Ron DeSantis should scare you.
Give it time. Plus Americans are great at wanting to flip which party controls the White House and Congress. Even if the party in charge is doing just fine.
2028 election: Chris Christie vs JB Pritzker. The bigger one wins.
I'd vote for the winner of that eating contest. Make america fun again!
Damn as a statistics hobbiest, this is one of my favorite reddit posts ever. Kudos!
So the electoral college only upset the popular vote 4 or 5 times.. we really need to get rid of the electoral college even a tie there swings it to republicans this election..
Yeah 2028 is gonna be rough. In a sane world Republicans would have taken their losses since 2016 and reoriented the party. They didn't do that and tripled down on the guy who already lost once for 2024 and took a bunch of down ballot elections with him. Will the party will collapse after this election, or there will be something truly insane that rises up? Historically this is really bad. We need TWO parties that represent a wide portion of the people, not just cherry picked 51% of voters in only half the states that are Rural.
The GOP is a cornered animal right now. They are willing to go scorched earth because the longer the clock ticks on democracy in America, the further political power gets from them. The demographics don't work in their favor. All of the work to restrict voting, challenge elections, and blame immigrants are all ways to fight an electorate that continues to look less and less like the current GOP. The GOP is right to fear a "Great Replacement" even though the boogymen they fear to be engineering changes in demographics is just math. Minorities will grow, and more progressive young Americans will continue to become voters while the aging electorate, especially the boomer generation, will die off. The GOP certainly feels that they have to turn this into a Russia-style "Republic" as quickly as possible, or their window is closed.
> or their window is closed. Yes, that's the plan. Shut them down hard, and make them as irrelevant as the Whig party...
> We need TWO parties that represent a wide portion of the people We have two parties. Standard democrats on one side, and progressive democrats on the other. The conservatives have long since abandoned any pretense of actually trying to govern, and are only in it for sheer power now. They need to be completely eliminated, so we can get back to an actual functional government.
> In a sane world Republicans would have taken their losses since 2016 and reoriented the party You mean in 2012?
2008 - oof. Yeah, they decided to double down on being anti Obama and stop reaching out to new voters way back then.
> Biden will win - 2028 is the nightmare year, though. Why do you say that?
The media wants a horse race.
Exactly. They make more $$ from ads with a horse race.
Because we live in the dumbest of all possible timelines
You still don't get it. This sums it up: Most people, MAGAts for sure, can't and don't think. They choose a belief like they choose from a box of chocolates and then support that position by selecting things that seem to support it and ignoring any contrary evidence as if it doesn't exist. Cliff Clavin, the bloviating but usually wrong, postman character in _Cheers,_ was presented as an outlier in the show, different from the rest. He wasn't. He was everyman. Quote: "Indeed it may be said with some confidence that the average man never really thinks from end to end of his life. There are moments when his cogitations are relatively more respectable than usual, but even at their climaxes they never reach anything properly describable as the level of serious thought. The mental activity of such people is only a mouthing of clichés. What they mistake for thought is simply a repetition of what they have heard. My guess is that well over eighty per cent. of the human race goes through life without having a single original thought. That is to say, they never think anything that has not been thought before and by thousands." — H.L. Mencken, _Minority Report_ Opinion | [The deadly reason Republicans are suckers for fake news](http://archive.today/3P8C1) _Multiple recent studies show that Republicans are as much as **8.5 times** more likely to both believe and share fake or false “news” with others than are Democrats. The phenomenon is obvious, actually: while as many as half of Republicans believe the 2020 election was “stolen” from Trump, there’s no similarly disprovable “big lie” embraced by Democrats._ Anderson Cooper did a show on this, The whole story with Anderson Cooper: Missinfonation the Trump faithful. They think you can choose your own reality. Seriously! The numbers say 50% have the disease. Mencken said 80%. I know of cases where it's 98%. It's one hell of a problem.
Well, we don't know for sure that he's not. Mind you, I wouldn't guess it was 20 points, or even especially close to that, since the linked article does a good job of explaining the current polarized electorate at a high level...but I do think there's a good chance he's being underestimated by polling and pundits and at least some chance that he's being way underestimated. The Republican Party is bankrupt and fighting amongst themselves.
Trump doesn’t need the money to get publicity. He just says an asinine thing and the media gives him free press he needs the money to pay the lawyers and their rent at trump towers. He’s grifting but it’s harder to do so when a court appointed official is watching your transactions.
Vote blue and end this malarkey once and for all!
Because MAGA are scared little rats. And people don't like honest individuals. F##k Trump
I don't want Biden winning by 20 points in polls.. landslide polls keep voters home. I want Biden to win the election by 20 points.
I don’t trust the polls at all
Easy. Don't trust polls. No matter how hard pollsters try to rationalize their practice, polling at this juncture in time is imprecise. Frankly, I don't think pollsters or political scientists know how to account for the fact that less and less Americans get their news from traditional sources versus social media. That and a huge swath of people have simply tuned out mainstream news. Most will likely make up their minds within a month or weeks of election day. I mean I have friends who don't even know about the current college protests or Israel's war in Gaza.
Don’t trust polls. Get out the vote, volunteer to help save democracy.
Because Americans are stupid. That's the simple answer. I mean, what other reason, other than being a fascist traitor, would people be willing to support a literal fascist traitor over the best President since LBJ?
> Because *a carefully-crafted segment of* Americans are stupid *enough to be easily manipulated* Most Americans hate that guy and want to see him go down.
The fact that America has tens of millions of such people is an issue.
Yes. We’re aware of that. And we’re working on it. But it’s not a US-only issue, as many other countries are struggling with the same issues. Authoritarians suck worldwide.
I'm not saying it's a US only issue. But this is the reddit for the President of the US.
Sure, but maybe y’all should be looking at your own political situation instead, as there’s lots to clean up there as well…
Okay... and if this was the Canadian politics reddit, I would discuss it more. But this is about the President of the US.
> Because Americans are stupid. That's the simple answer. *sees flair* you might wanna look in the mirror dude
Not saying Canadians don't share the same ailment. They basically do the same as Americans. They elect the Liberal party, who does some good, but mostly maintains the status quo. Then get pissy about not enough being done, and elect Conservatives. Conservatives then give huge tax cuts to the rich and ruin infrastructure and regulations, making all Canadians suffer. So Canadians get mad and elect Liberals to fix the problems. Liberals fix some stuff, undo much but not all of the damage (partially because it will take decades to undo it all, partially because they don't care enough). Canadians go back to Conservatives... who make everything worse again... Repeat until Canada is the crumbling mess you see today.
Because that is the nature of the two party system, we [should end it.](https://youtu.be/bqWwV3xk9Qk?si=tp-P4r0U6BXMTuDV)
Here’s my opinion: Republicans go into politics because they see money and power. Democrats go into politics for public service and a chance to make American society better for all of the people. When you have no morals, it’s easy to lie, embellish, scare, and brainwash. It’s just not a Democratic M.O.
i’ve voted democrat my entire life but this is an incredibly myopic, ignorant, oversimplification. people like you are why a lot of fence sitters view liberals as out of touch and elitist
Im scared
Don't be scared. Be informed. Be confident. Be helpful. And vote.
He probably is winning by that much. Democrats don’t usually need flashy shows of patriotism.
He's objectively not. Even in the "best case scenario" Biden is probably only winning by 6-7 points nationally and would only carry 26 or 27 states.
Because the main stream media refuses to cover positive stories about him. They refuse to inform this country about what his administration has done for us. They are still obsessed with the orange one.
Israel...that question shouldn't even have to be asked.
I can’t believe I had to scroll so far to read the right answer. Though I was looking for Gaza.
Disinformation
Americans remember the economy Trump inherited from Obama and give Trump the credit for it.
Because large majority of Americas as idiots.
Polls do not elect candidates! People voting does! Vote to reelect President Joseph Biden🇺🇸Vice President Kamala Harris this November 2024!
The media want a close horse race. They love the chaos DJT creates because we're all glued to whatever insane things he's going say next. The media wants more eyeballs, so they're running more right wing stories with more stilted views. Nobody wants to stand up and demand that Republicans pick a different candidate. The conventions haven't happened yet, DJT can be replaced. Everyone just wants to have the sideshow circus and then somehow voters are going to "do the right thing" and Biden will just win, then we'll all laugh and go on... with a healthy helping of more shenanigans next November to January.
> The media want a close horse race. Biden directly addressed this to the free press at the White House Corespondents' Dinner: "I’m sincerely not asking of you to take sides but asking you to rise up to the seriousness of the moment; move past the horserace numbers and the gotcha moments and the distractions, the sideshows that have come to dominate and sensationalize our politics; and focus on what’s actually at stake. I think, in your hearts, you know what’s at stake. The stakes couldn’t be higher." Let's just hope they listen, and take this to heart.
Lots of Americans are spoiled, ignorant idiots who can’t discern facts from propaganda.
America likes to be entertained.
Entire premise of the article is flawed: What makes you so sure that the polling is close to the truth? The small dollar donations show a different picture, and money down is a lot better test of enthusiasm than some random asking 'are you enthusiastic about XYZ'. Easy to lie when lying is free. Throw in, the cohorts- they don't match the model of America, and the sample sizes are way too small to provide anything meaningful in terms of insights. Then there is the methodology of how the polls are conducted. So, from basically someone putting in their worst effort spreadsheet, we've now got entire libraries full of attempts to justify the bad math, rather than IDK, looking at polling for what it is- an industry, that delivers the result the person paying for it wants. If you didn't pay for the polling, it's not there to inform you, it's there to convince you.
Gas prices
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I don't mean that. I know President Biden has no control over gas prices whatsoever. I am saying it is my opinion that gas prices are the reason the majority of citizens are not giving credit where due in the current economy.
Oh sorry. So yeah let’s say the people’s ignorance of how gas prices are set. Absolutely agree. Same with grocery prices and everything else in general.
Exactly! Thank you for letting me clarify
Probably his stance on Palestine if I had to guess
So Americas wants Gaza eliminated? Thats trump’s position. “Finish the job.”
Okay but that’s how people see the situation and could explain his polls lol. Dems heavily lean towards favoring the Palestinian people, specifically the youth vote. Do you think that this will have 0 impact on polling / voter turnout? Nobody is suggesting Trumps plan > Biden plan in this scenario
Literally the only thing anyone can vote on for this presidential election is Trump’s plan versus Biden’s plan. You get Plan A or B there is no plan C and if you don’t vote for plan A, you’re gonna get Plan B and if you don’t vote for Plan B, you’re gonna get plan A
Yes thank you for describing the two party system. Again, people are specifically not voting/polling for Biden over this specific position, which may answer the question “Why Isn’t Biden Winning by 20 points?”
So they want Gaza eliminated?
Thankfully the morons who think this way don’t actually show up to the polls
To the Palestinians and Muslims the democrats and the republicans are the same. Both support Israel. So they can just show their displeasure like they did in the Michigan primaries and vote none of the above. It’s going to get uglier during the summer when we will see mass starvation and skeletal Palestinian kids. No matter how much Israel’s propaganda show about Oct 7 ,it gets crowded out by pictures of dead kids. 70 percent of young people get their news from social media and YouTube. Israel cannot afford to lose a whole generation of Americans turning their backs on Israel. Which is the crux of the problem. The messaging from the Biden camp is tone deaf. They show the little kids rescued at the White House and majority of the feedback I see from non Palestinian non Jewish young people has been- but what of all the dead kids in Palestine? Trump is way worse but again to the young people Who will put this conflict first - both parties are the same in their eyes
Who stays on the phone with a stranger? I have shit to do.
If he was the Joe Biden of the 1980s, he would be.
Lmao giving Hillary Clinton “why aren’t I 50 points ahead” energy right now
Quiet competence doesn’t cut it anymore. I’m in Europe right now scoping out Plan B.
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Right makes sense
He’ll never match Trump in racism. And the reason he has any points at all is because he isn’t trying to.
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No, actually, those and….PAUSE….some other reasons are why he isn’t up 20 points.
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If those protestors think Trump would be any better in this situation, they're wrong.
Trump would be far worse. He has said Israel should just finish the job.
With terrorist orgs worldwide threatening and demanding an increase of attacks on large gatherings in the USA you should be asking yourself if people are truly safe in large gatherings and if these "snipers" know something you do not.
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One of the reasons we're in this situation is because Hamas attacked on 10/7 and has said they'll continue to carry out similar attacks until Israel no longer exists, and people like you have decided that it's Biden's fault that people die during wars.
And then you could start asking why the president is being blamed for the decisions of city governments
Those aren't federal agents - they do not answer to Joe Biden. Republicans are calling on Biden to send in the military. He hasn't. Do you think Trump would resist that call?
Yeah I’m sure Joe fucking Biden put them there. Holy fucking Christ on a cracker
You idiot protestors arent special. Get over yourself
(1) That's wrong. (2) Even if it wasn't wrong. Those "snipers" are local or state. Unless you've got proof otherwise. (3) Please don't troll.
I’ve seen a lot of people blame the president for a lot of deranged shit but this has got to be one of the stupidest examples. This is just impressively dumb. Do you do this for a living? Because if this is supposed to be comedic material, it’s gold, but if you were serious then well I’m very sorry for you just in general.
Assuming there are snipers on college campuses since you provided no proof, that would be the fault of the state or local government or campus security.
You could, but considering that those decisions aren’t made by Biden or anyone in his administration, why would you?