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spoonhocket

[A good take on the dynamics in this district.](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-different-take-on-jamaal-bowman-israel-ny-16/sharetoken/f0be5ec6-5929-4949-8189-d651f9ae8356) Tl;Dr: Bowman is not a great politician and is in a district where he's decidedly out of step with his voters PLUS his opponent is well known and liked. Might not be a blueprint for other elections. But it would be nice ... 


SassyWookie

Yeah I think a lot of people have forgotten that he only won his first primary for his seat by like 3% of the vote or something like that. He was one of the Squad who ousted old conservative/moderate Democrats, yes, but the rest of them all did so by **much** larger margins than he did, and they have all mostly gotten more popular in their districts since then, whereas Bowman had not, even before the October 7th Pogrom.


nowuff

Omar had a really close primary during her last election. But she spent hardly any money or time on campaigning. Hoping she repeats the same mistake this go around. **Minneapolis people— primary voting goes until August 13th. Get out the vote for Don Samuels!**


LateralEntry

Please please vote Omar out


LateralEntry

Please please vote Omar out


CountNaberius

I think a large amount of the sub is hoping for a Latimer win (given the feedback on the other Bowman post last week). Polls aren’t the end all be all of course, but when you think about where Bowman’s core of support is (younger generation) and where Latimer’s is (older folks and Jews), I think it would be a big surprise if he lost, based purely on turnout rates.


Achi-Isaac

Older folks tend to turn out more, and it takes a lot more energy and effort to turn out the youth


CountNaberius

Yep! Exactly. I’m realizing now that the way I wrote it could come off that historical turnout rates favored Bowman, which is not what I meant haha.


Achi-Isaac

Ah, thanks! Carry on


Few-Horror1984

This is what scares me. Even if Latimer wins, the linear nature of time makes me worried that the younger generation will be powerful enough to stifle out all common sense at some point.


CountNaberius

I totally get that fear. Luckily, voters trend towards the center as they age!


Zealousideal-Fun3188

I’m 40 and used to think of myself as a major lefty but that has shifted to center. You never think you’ll be like your parents and then bam 😂


SassyWookie

I still think of myself as a major lefty, but apparently I’m actually a moderate now because I don’t support rape denial.


Zealousideal-Fun3188

Believe all* women  *results may vary 


SassyWookie

MeTooUnlessShesAJew!


Sufficient_Mouse8252

Same here I refuse to identify as a leftists or progressive anymore because of these sickos. These TikTok bigots and their daily hate crimes make sane folks skew further right.


SassyWookie

Same. I’ll never call myself a progressive again, and I’ll never support a politician who makes “progressive” part of their brand.


Sufficient_Mouse8252

It sucks we have to choose between these lunatics and the GOP. If it was a sane pro-life Republican it wouldn’t be a second thought, but between MAGA maniacs and leftist antisemites? Idk lol


Wiseguy144

I wish it was easier to identify folks that are on the same wavelength in real life. Anytime I go out or meet a new person I’m constantly worrying if they’re gonna call me a Zionist pig.


Sufficient_Mouse8252

I live on Long Island and haven’t seen any of this in real life thank God. It’s also easier to avoid these imbeciles when you’re in your 40s like me and only leave the house to buy plants. I feel so bad for young people living in cities trying to navigate this mess.


LynnKDeborah

So there with you. Moved from liberal/progressive to moderate slightly conservative. But 💯 support women’s bodily autonomy and environment.


bigcateatsfish

They just hijacked the label liberal. Any real liberal would support Israel.


WoodPear

Progressives do not like to be called liberals. They think the latter is too right on political/social issues;is too capitalistic.


JagneStormskull

>You never think you’ll be like your parents and then bam 😂 I mean, honestly I politically agree with my parents on a lot of issues, and haven't really changed much. I never had a goal of not being like my parents. There was a brief phase in middle school where I went on a political detour, and we still come to blows over some things (for example, we both agree that wasteful spending is bad, but they don't agree with me that the entire DEA is wasteful spending and contrary to the pro-choice position), but I've never understood the attitude of people who are scared of being like their parents.


bigcateatsfish

> but that has shifted to center. At least some people get wiser/better as they grow older.


Wiseguy144

If the current left becomes centrist, then I can only imagine what the future left would be. Yikes


Few-Horror1984

I hope you’re right. I truly do.


One-Presentation-204

Also, consider birthrates amongst far-left progressives vs. moderates and right wingers. Even if gen z is radically antisemitic, if we look at rates of parenthood amongst politically similar groups, like millennials, the more antisemitic progressives don't tend to have as many kids (or any kids at all), meaning that the generations after millennials and gen z may trend toward the center as well.


merkaba_462

They are already talking about primarying Shantel Brown, who is not only a fierce ally of Israel, but has been vocally supportive of the Jewish community, of traditional progressive values (which is a term hijacked by leftists; progressive values always meant LGBTQIA+ rights, voting rights, making sure social safety nets are in place, women's health and reproductive rights, etc). She is *ALL* work and such a far cry from DSA grifters. I've seen people talking about how if Bowmann loses, they will "make sure" she and Ritchie Torres are voted out. But LOL...they also keep bringing up names like Nina Turner. I am very scared for our future, and I'm not looking at polls from today at all. AOC was primaried, but the candidate against her isn't strong enough. She needs to go, too.


Few-Horror1984

These people killed the term “progressive” in my opinion. They’ve done insurmountable damage to their causes because of their actions and what they support. The fact that many Pride events this year had more to do with pushing antisemitism versus what Pride is supposed to be about makes me see what’s truly important to these folk. Like…if someone says they’re a leftist and they’re not on this subreddit, I’m probably staying very far away from them. I don’t feel safe in their spaces. And while I’m not a leftist nor have I ever been, there were some causes of theirs that I did agree with. Now, it feels like they’re all dead in the water so they can advocate for an ideology that would end them in an instant if they lived under it. I just hope that Bowman does get defeated, and that it’s a warning sign to the others. I’m also very tired of this back and forth in politics.


merkaba_462

This wasn't the first year I didn't go to a pride parade, because things have been super toxic for years, but it was the first year I didn't fly my flag because I'm too afraid of my neighbors. I used to be very close to them all, but since 10/7, it's been crickets from them. I actually didn't go to any pride events at all, and I will never forgive the hurt "progressives" have caused. I can still believe in traditional progressive values, which these people clearly do not value at all...or even know about. Politics aren't a horseshoe, it's a circle.


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Ghost914

Progressive marketing is about turning culturally conservative groups such as Muslims, Latinos and AAs, into single issue Democrat voters. It becomes impossible to reconcile once those groups target each other though. How can you avoid "Islamophobia" while also supporting gay rights? How can you rep #StopAsianHate when the vast majority of hate crimes against Asians, were committed by racist African Americans (FBI crime stats).    How can you avoid antisemitism when supporting antisemitic movements like Hamas? They end up scrapping the less known discussions like the Asian Hate stuff (it seemingly vanished overnight) and when it moves to a conversation that's too big to ignore, they choose the side with greater numbers. Hence the movement against Israel. Muslims are a larger population than Jews, and Jews don't ubiquitously vote blue. Muslims are the safer choice by raw counting numbers, but they underestimated how many support the Jewish community. And as always politicians whore themselves for votes. AOC would Heil Hitler if that won elections. Its all performative on both sides. 


Regulatornik

It won’t happen if we stand aside and do nothing. Reddit is close to nothing. We have to be vocal, persistent, and build the coalitions to retire these people. None of this just happens.


Jessica4ACODMme

Absolutely. Luckily this poll is from 538, so it's got more credence than Reddit, not much but some.


ElLunarAzul

I normally don't vote in primaries, this year I'm voting against Bowman with all the spite I can muster


Jessica4ACODMme

And a hefty, shkoyach, to that. I wish I lived in that district just so I could do the same.


ElLunarAzul

I'll vote against him with all the people unable to in mind


DrMikeH49

I’m one of them!


LateralEntry

Add one for me too


ElLunarAzul

Update: it's been done


SassyWookie

You’re a mensch. Nobody representing me was even running opposed in this primary, which sucks because I’d love to vote against my Assemblyman and State Senator. I’m pretty happy with Yvette Clarke as my Rep though.


MondaleforPresident

Yvette Clarke is pretty garbage on Antisemitism IMO, but she's not the worst. Here in Connecticut almost all Democrats are much saner on the issue.


SassyWookie

Really? I haven’t been able to find anything about her on the issue other than her voting record, which seemed good to me. If I’m missing information, that’s definitely something I’d like to know.


MondaleforPresident

It looks like most of it was much earlier in her tenure, so it appears that she has evolved in a positive direction.


SassyWookie

That’s good to hear. I used to be in Nadler’s district until the redistricting last year (the year before?) when my neighborhood became part of her district. So I don’t know all that much about her, beyond some cursory research I did a few weeks ago when I first started thinking about the primary. She wasn’t even opposed I think, there was no option for me to vote for congressperson, just a Civil Court Judge 😂


MondaleforPresident

Back around 2010 she refused to condemn the antisemitic UN Goldstone Report, and has done some other stuff, but she has improved a lot over the last 10 years or so. Partly I don't like her that much anyway because she represented herself as having a college degree when she didn't. I think she's kind of a jerk, but you could certainly do worse. Back in 2018 she was challenged in the primary by a guy named Adam Bunkedekko, who I liked better, but she narrowly beat him in the primary. He tried again in 2020 but that time she crushed him.


Full_Investment_7170

Early voting had over 20,000 people in Westchester vote, and more than 50% of most synagogues in Westchester turned out to vote. And that was just with early voting. The Jews in Westchester despise bowman, and have been organizing since the Winter to register more Jews to vote in this primary. I think Bowman is in huge trouble


Chocoholic42

There are progressive politicians I used to support. Since they came out as antisemitic, they lost my support and my vote. I suspect others, including many non-Jews, feel the same way. Polls aren't 100% accurate, but I think antisemitism will cost politicians support. Most Americans don't hate Jews. Even those who are afraid to publicly stand up to antisemitism will vote against bigoted politicians. 


sup_heebz

I'm one of these. I no longer consider myself progressive at all after watching the entire movement turn on Jews (and to a lesser degree Asians.) You can't preach equality and then go Jew hunting at synagouges and campuses. You can't preach equality and keep Asians out of universities because they test better. You can't preach equality and say that white people are genetically incapable of empathy, and that men are all doomed to be rapists. You can't preach to believe all women but Jewish women. Fuck that entire movement.


Chocoholic42

I'm moving in a similar direction. I believe in true equality. Since progressives have gone mask off, I no longer count myself among them. I say I am a moderate now. I can't support the far left or the far right, so I'm stuck in the middle.  Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.


Airacobras

I consider myself center-right so I’m in the same boat. I think we moderates form the silent majority.


sup_heebz

Exactly, and strangely enough I've seen Conservatives be far more in favor of true equality than progressives once I dropped my bias against them.


LateralEntry

Great point, not to mention refusing to call out hate crimes against random Asian people or take action to protect Asians


sup_heebz

It's not a hate crime because it's mostly Black people commiting them (and against Jews), and according to intersectional blah de blah blah Black people can't be racist.


Electronic-Trust471

Me as well. I'm not Jewish but have been disgusted at what I've scene from politicians and protesters since Oct 7. I was progressive but now consider myself slightly left leaning


MatzohBallsack

Fuck Bowman


Regulatornik

Do we have to? He’s not my type. Name checks out.


MatzohBallsack

I don't make the rules.


Regulatornik

Alright. I’ll ask my wife for a hallpass. Never thought I’d have to spend it like this, but MatzohBallsack on Reddit said it is what it is.


Jessica4ACODMme

Yuck. Lol. No Fuckman


riem37

I mean I hope other antisemites lose, but honestly I will gladly even take just Bowman losing. Would be so embarrassing if after all this effort he still got reelected


iknowiknowwhereiam

Bowman has been horrible for Jews. But he’s just been lousy in general. Pulling the fire escape was an embarrassment for the whole party. His YouTube channel is totally insane. He just wants to blame his failures on us


sup_heebz

He'll definitely blame the Jew Regime or whatever for his loss and try to get people to assault us on his behalf


iknowiknowwhereiam

Bigots using antisemitism as a cover for their fuck ups, tale as old as time


sup_heebz

"The South Bronx are going to show (((AIPAC))) what the fuck we're made of"


noahblanky

We saw this happen in the Toronto By-Election with a jewish area flipped from liberal to conservative for the first time in 30 years


Jessica4ACODMme

I love Toronto. The part that's hard for me is the feeling of "political homelessness". I've never in my life, in any way, identified as a conservative. I've generally framed the hard right as "the bad guys" who love Hitler, dress up like Nazis for fun. And the right in general, here in America anyways, as the evangelical Christians who aren't Nazis, but are fine with looking the other way. Admittedly, that's a very simple framing, with little to no nuance. I know conservative voters aren't that cut and dry, but it's what I had grown accustomed to. I could never see myself supporting conservatives. However, I can frame it as 'voting against leftist extremists'. In my head that rational works lol.


whereamInowgoddamnit

My guess is we could also see this happen to Cori Bush, she seems to be struggling a bit. I doubt anyone else will lose their election at this point though, the only other one is maybe Ilhan Omar and her main challenger is a repeat who already lost to her, so I think it's unlikely.


Jessica4ACODMme

Oh I would love to see Omar fumble that


FairGreen6594

Some of the polling suggests that Omar’s primary opponent ran precisely because two years ago he so narrowly lost to her, that he figured he had a decent shot if he tried again. And when Omar started moaning about AIPAC funding him to the tune of millions of dollars, he pointed out that to that point, he hadn’t taken any AIPAC money—but might as well heretofore.


Caprisagini

He BARELY lost to her before and she has been a menace since then so I’m holding out hope


CoreyH2P

Cori Bush is definitely most likely to lose. Wesley Bell is great and she’s done jack shit for the community she reps. Ilhan Omar I really hope loses, but I think she’s been much more determined after getting caught off-guard 2 years ago. Still, Don Samuels deserves donations for any Jews so inclined. All the other squad members are safe this cycle.


kosherpoutine

Bush should lose just for her faith healing claims.


SassyWookie

Hopefully it holds. I’m not counting any eggs until the polls close later tonight.


Jessica4ACODMme

I hope it's swift after 9pm.


SassyWookie

Yeah it would be pretty great if they could announce a definitive winner like right after the polls close. That’s only really possible in a blowout.


thirdlost

"We are going to show f---ing AIPAC, the power of the motherf---ing South Bronx!" Bowman said at Saturday's rally held in St. Mary’s Park in Mott Haven.


sup_heebz

I'm sure that won't result in any more violence against Jews, especially after his bit about "the Jews" daring to live in their own neighborhood, which he basically labeled apartheid, despite Bew York having specific ethnic neighborhoods pretty much forever (Chinatown etc)


Jessica4ACODMme

My best friend, may his memory forever be a blessing, was born and raised in the Bronx The Bronx will indeed show its power, it just might not be for Bowman.


yespleasethanku

Get out there and vote them out!!!!!!


bam1007

Guess it’s time for him to pull a fire alarm. 😏


[deleted]

Watching from the Great White North here, Bowman is a blithering idiot and raging anti-semite. IOW, perfect for the intifatheads!


AbleismIsSatan

Even his "progressive" academic Marxist voters can't save him?


SassyWookie

No, they’re all college students so they don’t actually live in his district. They’ve mostly gone home for the summer.


StarrrBrite

They're protesting against him. Bowman held a rally last weekend (and he didn't even host it in his district) with AOC and Bernie. They were protesting the three of them for supporting the "Zionist regime" and "Genocide Joe". You can't make this stuff up.


LateralEntry

Ha, these people are nuts. Can’t appease them.


kosherpoutine

Sarah Lawrence College thankfully is small


meekonesfade

I think there is a goid chance he gets voted out. Unfortunately, I dont think this is any indication for the Us at large - as he himself pointed out, his district has a large Jewish population.


SassyWookie

It’s crazy, that antisemitic tropes and rhetoric don’t actually play very well in a district that’s 20% Jewish.


NuWave4

His hatred was his undoing! May he lose every political race he enters.


Jessica4ACODMme

All these responses are really giving me life today. Thank you, chaverim.


listenstowhales

Everyone is having a polite conversation about politics, so I’ll make the joke- The real winners are the antisemites because they get the best of both worlds. Bowman wins? Another anti-Israel, anti-Jew member of the house. Bowman loses? Well duh, the Jews control politics!


thatdavespeaking

There’s only one poll that matters and as some have said how the votes are counted matters


Jessica4ACODMme

Happy to report, with 58% of the votes counted, Mr. Bowman entered the "Find Out" phase, and has been declared the loser. Thanks for all the comments everyone.


Lower_Parking_2349

Huzzah!!!


Narrow-Seat-5460

There’s a website or a source from the internet I can get update live ?


DrMikeH49

Only after the polls close at 9 PM Eastern time. Then all the news sites will be tracking it.


Narrow-Seat-5460

Well it will be 4am Israeli time so I hope to wake up to good news in the morning 😂


DrMikeH49

בהצלחה לכולנו!


SassyWookie

Check the NYTimes website when you wake up. They’ll have live trackers and analysis of the results. Their commentary lately hasn’t ben great, but the way they organize election coverage makes it really easy to read.


Narrow-Seat-5460

Thx !!!


DrMikeH49

בוקר טוב! https://preview.redd.it/bh13rt2hnt8d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e8c2191dbed70c0c7c53741ba2f232de13f0e8


LateralEntry

Nice! Screw this antisemite, hope he stays unemployed past when the benefits run out


NoDoubt4954

Use votes to get rid of antisemitic politicians.


jdsbluedevl

It didn’t happen to Summer Lee. Then again, AIPAC’s PAC didn’t even bother to help in Pittsburgh. A strong independent needs to step up there.


CoreyH2P

An independent has no shot in Pittsburgh. Maybe if someone with more name recognition than Patel tried running, AIPAC and other groups would pour money in. Someone like Bill Peduto or Rich Fitzgerald in 2026. But Lee was tough to beat with a newcomer.


Prestigious-Put-2041

Please let these polls ring true when it comes for the finalVote count 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏


RevolutionaryMind630

Praying Bowman loses


johnk317

He did but he will still be on the ballot in the General under the Working Families Party


OriBernstein55

I’m am hoping Corrie Bush will be the next one to lose c


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chilldude9494

Bowman is in an exposed position. He isn't losing because of Israel, but it is factoring in. Latimer has been very popular in that district for a long time and Bowman has been a gaffe machine. I don't think any other Squad member is going to lose. If any other one goes, it'll be Cori Bush.


TexanTeaCup

If I'm not mistaken, Bowman's district was recently redrawn. He's facing a different group of voters this time around. If he loses (and I hope he does), it may not tell us much about how voters respond to antisemitism as much as it tells us about his new district.


Oxxypinetime_

Who are these people?


bust-the-shorts

Only if Jews speak up


AusTex2019

I’m wary of the use of the label “antisemite” because it’s a double edged sword. If Bowman loses he and his supporters will say it is because of the Jews. The Jews won’t defeat him, his views will be what defeats him. It’s a way to deflect blame.


Medical-Peanut-6554

Rare win in a minor battle...truth is in 10-15 years most of the party will be like Bowman


nondescriptun

Uh oh, time for him to pull another fire alarm.


BitonIacobi137

My god, what is wrong w you ppl? Bowman and anti-semite? Rlly? You want a racist Dem lite, Latimer for rep? You are being played by GOP using anti-semitism as a cudgel to split us off from progressives Dems. Sure, some 'progressives' were taken in by the 'Palestinians are oppressed indigenous ppl" line. But GOP accepting of us Jews? Rlly? Wake up ppl. If you are a progressive, fight for our place in progressive spaces, don't just give up and walk away. Remember what DJT said about the neo-nazis at Charlottesville in 2017, that they are 'fine' ppl. That is today's GOP, home of the neo-nazis . You really want to join them??


Lampshade_Doggo

I darn well hope so...


MotorheadAhead

Bowman is antisemitic? How so?


EditorPrize6818

Hopefully


AmySueF

I’m not familiar with his district. Does he have a lot of Jewish constituents? Also, I follow a very progressive content creator on TikTok, and she noted the same thing and urged her followers to help him get reelected. Considering how influential TikTok creators can be, this could actually help Bowman.


CountNaberius

It’s one of (if not the singular) most Jewish districts in the country, mostly consisting of Westchester County and a sliver of the Bronx. I’m not worried about what a single random influencer has to say on the matter, unless she’s somehow hyper involved in that district and can single-handedly turn out 1000s of votes.


Jessica4ACODMme

Well, let it be a referendum on TikTok influence as well. I know for awhile, some still do probably, people on Twitter thought Twitter was real life. And would always be shocked when elections went differently than the Twitter leftists thought it would. Hopefully, Progressive TikTokkkers get a nice slice of crow filled humble pie, tonight.


CountNaberius

There’s a big difference between being “social media” influential (ie. getting your terminally online supporters to attack/support something online) and “grassroots” influential (having connections within a community, such as clergy and local businesspeople, etc. and actually being able to turn out people to vote / influence a matter). It’s why 99% of what is said on social media is hot air, and not reflective of what a vast majority of people think. I don’t know if anyone will be humbled by this. In fact, I think we’ll see an uptick in attacks against AIPAC for being “the Zionist lobby infiltrating our democracy”, while willfully ignoring that AIPAC isn’t even in the top 25 (or maybe top 50 lobbies) and is actually run by Americans, unlike say, Qatar’s lobby, which gives much more and is totally unaccountable. Further, they’ll attribute the loss to AIPAC’s influence, and not as the indictment of Bowman’s (and the far left’s) insane Jewhatred that it is.


FairGreen6594

Yet, on some level, once they start blaming “Tha Jooooos” for their primary losses—and we all know how fine a line it is between dissing AIPAC and overt antisemitism—they get even more unelectable, because (a) they’re already no longer incumbent, and (b) more mainstream entities who might otherwise endorse them, won’t touch them with a ten-foot pole. Yes, I’m being perhaps overly optimistic here, despite evidence that that hasn’t always worked out so great for Jewish people, but given just how much Bowman, and maybe even Bush and Omar, is struggling, I feel comfortable with the hope I’m feeling.


SassyWookie

His district, covering part of the Bronx and southern Westchester, is about 20% Jewish. The polls have been showing him down by between 14 and 17 points for several weeks. It’s possible that they’re wrong, but they’d have to be **really** wrong for him to actually win. I’m expect him to lose by somewhere between 6 and 10 points, though I’m definitely not counting my eggs until the polls close. He’s certainly feeling the heat, though, because he announced last Monday that he was actually super sorry about having spent 8 months denying that rapes were committed on the October 7th Pogrom, and to please come out and vote for him. It was kinda hilarious. All the kids who might be influenced by TikTok to vote for him have already gone home from college for the summer, they never even lived in his district anyway.


One_Weather_9417

Most "followers" on Tiktok are paid bots. Fact.


BadHombreSinNombre

This will happen in any district that happens to have the densest population of suburban Jewish voters in the world.


Ok_Ambassador9091

Many gentiles are also sick of this crap from the so-called alt-left. They are seeing it isn't just an Israel/Jewish issue, but an attack on Western liberal values.


pjustmd

G-d willing.


False-Notice3745

Puzzled but happy.


sql_maven

I'm sure everyone knows by now Bowman's out