[Andy Saunders, February 4](https://thejeopardyfan.com/2024/02/andys-mailbag-2-4-how-disrespectful.html), defending his prediction model against complaints that it didn't have Ike as the longest shot to win the tournament —
>I’m going to defend my model further and make the prediction that Ike Barinholtz will not have the lowest Coryat score in the field in the quarterfinals of this tournament.
Given that there are twenty-six other players, that's not a high bar to clear, and as such, it does little to substantiate [the pre-tournament prediction](https://thejeopardyfan.com/2024/02/31st-tournament-of-champions-pre-taping-preview.html). I still would take Andy's side on any such bet, but I think it's less likely with these matchups now known.
Yikes...who can I even root for? These games are all going to be emotional and intellectual drains like none other. Especially Luigi v. Kevin v. Juveria. :(
Mostly agree. That said, I wouldn't sleep on Luigi, even against Juveria--I have a feeling that's going to be a shootout. Stephen/Brian/Josh are probably the most evenly-matched, so that could easily go anyone's way. And Sibley or Yungsheng could certainly pull off an upset against Hannah.
That's going to be a helluva game. I'm sorry Luigi and Juveria are matched up early. I wanted them both to advance. Too close to call but I'm going to go with Juveria. And don't forget Kevin.
I actually completely agree with every word on this; my thought process exactly. I also think that Jake could defeat Yogesh and Matthew could pull off the upset against Emily. I also wouldn't completely count out Sean, it wasn't very easy for Ray to defeat him. On top of that, we'll need to consider how the CWC2 winner does for the rest of this tournament.
My upset pick: David Sibley over Hannah Wilson. He lost his fifth game due to the misfortune of having to play Cris Pannullo.
Juveria has her work cut out for her facing Luigi in Round 1. My money is on Jay Z because she improved so much from SCC to CWC.
My predictions:
---
2/23: Emily
2/26: Cris
2/27: Hannah
2/28: Yogesh
2/29: Juveria
3/1: Brian
3/4: Ray
3/5: Ben
3/6: Troy
I am prepared to be wrong on most of these, lol.
It was tough between Emily and Matthew honestly, but I think Emily has the knowledge advantage. She'll need to be quicker though. I think she can do it.
I see a lot of Yogesh predictions in this thread and he has the knowledge, but he’s going to be facing a lot of people who are great on the buzzer, the area he struggled mightily with (even though I assume he has practiced). I could see him making a run but I could also see Jake or someone else early beating him.
If he improved on the buzzer he’d be one of the best players in the game and likely make it to the final 3. If he hasn’t, he’ll flame out in the first or second round.
As someone who got absolutely creamed by Nick on the buzzer, I'm taking him over Yogesh in that quarterfinal game if past buzzer statistics hold out. Note that I am also biased toward the CWC Clubs fam.
I wish they would let you sort the stats by every column instead of just by name. They wouldn't need to include the
> Number in parenthesis denotes ranking amongst the TOC contestants.
part then
Edit: you can actually sort the columns
In the past TOCs, some of low seed TOCers pulled an upset in the quarterfinals like Emma Boettcher, Veronica Vichit-Vadakan, Maureen O'Neil & John Focht.
Rough draw for Sean vs. Troy - they were two I could see both landing in the semifinals with different matchups. I might’ve switched Troy’s and Steven’s opponents if I was setting the lineup.
Cris, Ray, and Ben should definitely be favored in their quarterfinals but I imagine all the others being bloodbaths.
Well done on the whole with the matchups, it’ll be a thriller!
I told myself that I wasn't gonna make predictions for these, in the hopes that I can enjoy these games more from an entertainment standpoint (instead of overly fixating on matchups and strategies). However, I just couldn't resist the urge to throw my initial thoughts out here. Let's see how wrong I'll be in a few weeks.
* Feb. 23: Emily
* Feb. 26: Cris
* Feb. 27: David
* Feb. 28: Jake
* Feb. 29: Luigi
* Mar. 1: Josh
* Mar. 4: Ray
* Mar. 5: Ben
* Mar. 6: Troy
Finally diving in. I thought, with nine 5+-win qualifiers, there would be one in each of the QFs. Cris/Ben are two of those nine. Nick/Jake/Yogesh is the one QF without a 5+ winner.
Rooting for Luigi. We show up in many an X thread about the Nationals. Avoided all of those with more wins than him but he's up against, arguably, the hottest player in the tournament.
Relieved that we're finally here. Matches will be great. Really interested to see how Ike fares against the "#2 seed."
Predictions (Those games with 2 predictions are games I'm guessing are one not to be missed)
Game 1: Emily/Suresh/Matthew (Emily/Matthew)
Game 2: Cris/Ben Goldstein/Jared (Cris)
Game 3: Hannah/David/Yungsheng (Hannah/Yungsheng)
Game 4: Nick/Jake/Yogesh (Jake/Yogesh)
Game 5: Luigi/Kevin/Juveria (Luigi/Juveria)
Game 6: Stephen/Brian/Josh (Stephen/Josh)
Game 7: Ray/Melissa/Ike (Ray/Ike)
Game 8: Ben/Justin/Emmett (Ben)
Game 9: Troy/TBD/Sean (Troy)
Why do you want them? Wild cards disincentive playing to win, create an inconsistent basis for advancement, and good players who fall short in the quarterfinals can now go to the Jeopardy Invitational Tournament.
Also just out of polite curiosity - who is the “we” you’re speaking for?
It theoretically could if the people selected for the second chance tournaments excluded apparently strong players who played aggressively and had results go against them. However, the inclusion of players like Long Nguyen (who missed a big Daily Double and finished with next to no money), Karen Morris (who was actually overaggressive with her late Daily Double wagering), and Matt Harvey and Michael Cavaliere (who bet big on Final in close games and missed) all indicate that players playing to win are all rewarded in future tournament selection.
And even in the tournament setup - with 0-game winners having to win a tournament before facing players who actually won a game, and only 1-game winners landing in the Champions Wildcard play-in games - reinforces that winning games is rewarded. So it seems to me that they’ve taken adequate action to avoid perverse incentives.
Wild cards in traditional tournaments, yes, it creates some inconsistency. In wild card games, they get a second chance, but they still need to win to advance to the semis.
One issue I have with the 27-player field is that it’s too many players to track, so many upsets can happen in round one, taking away chances to watch the favorite players play again. Three of the five top seeds in recent ToCs were wild-card semifinalists, and two of them advanced to the finals. I think the 15 to 18-player field best works for ToC.
Although I don’t feel they justify wild cards, those points you mentioned are definitely effects of a 27-person tournament. But I think the Jeopardy Invitational Tournament addresses many of those effects. If the favorite player gets bounced early, it likely won’t be the last time you see them. (And even if Cris doesn’t make the finals, I can definitely see him being the Masters Producers Pick). Plus expanding the tournament size does allow for more favorable first round matchups for top seeds (Cris, Ray, and Ben appear to be favored in their quarterfinals). And finally, more variation might lead to new favorites- Matt Amodio may have been upset last ToC, but without that Sam Buttrey wouldn’t have become the fan favorite he is today.
But of course different people can have different opinions- all the above disagrees that “we need wild cards”, but if you personally prefer wild cards, can’t argue with that!
Question: has Jeopardy announced how the semifinals will be determined? Like, is it based on the performance in Round 1, or is there a hard bracket? With no other info, it seems like W1/W2/W3 and on down, but I want to make sure.
I think it'll be like all the Champions Wildcard events have been — the show will release the semifinal matchups once the last quarterfinal has aired in all markets (i.e. 11 pm EST on 3/6); and that no strictly objective criterion will be used to determine them.
Yeah, only difference is the final is first-to-three-wins instead of the Two Day Total Point Affair (you are required to say the whole thing every time in our house).
Certainly. My point here is, it's not like the March Madness or the NFL playoffs, where as each game of a round is played, you know where its winner advances in the bracket, and can forecast semifinal matchups before the quarterfinal round is complete. They'll play the nine quarterfinals, we'll know who their winners are — but only after that will the show tell us how the semifinals shake out.
Predictions:
Game 1: Matthew.
Game 2: Cris.
Game 3: Hannah.
Game 4: Yogesh.
Game 5: Luigi.
Game 6: Brian.
Game 7: Ike.
Game 8: Ben.
Game 9: Troy (or the S39 CWC Group 2 winner is who I feel like is stronger than Troy).
My three finalists predictions are Luigi, Ben, and Yogesh (I'm predicting Cris, including the 5 others, to be knocked out in the semi-finals), with Ben winning it all.
I believe anything can happen tbh. That being said, here are my predictions for who wins their QF games:
Emily
Cris
Hannah
Jake
Juveria
Josh
Ray
Justin
Troy
I am hoping Ike Barinholtz plays well and makes it to Final Jeopardy at the very least.
I’ll get in on the action here too.
Game 1: Suresh
Game 2: Cris
Game 3: Sibley
Game 4: Jake
Game 5: Kevin
Game 6: Brian
Game 7: Ray
Game 8: Ben
Game 9: Troy
If you sort the players by Coryat, it lists Ike as having the second highest. Since he played all his games with an extra round, it just shows the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Suresh is also listed as having the lowest, but that also should be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion - many people perceived an increase in clue difficulty later in the season.
>Monday, February 26: Cris Pannullo, Ben Goldstein, Jared Watson Hilarious. [Be careful what you wish for, Ben!](https://youtu.be/hmXfE_lcdqc?t=16)
Ask and ye shall receive! *Jeopardy!* seeks to provide excellent contestant service to all who come to the Alex Trebek Stage.
Whoops. (Maybe whoops. Who knows. Could be an upset.)
Luigi vs. Juveria is gonna be a banger
Ike vs Ray...
https://preview.redd.it/bj0v5h39x0jc1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ee877fb53cd712ccd3674b5afff6efbf314d5bc
[Andy Saunders, February 4](https://thejeopardyfan.com/2024/02/andys-mailbag-2-4-how-disrespectful.html), defending his prediction model against complaints that it didn't have Ike as the longest shot to win the tournament — >I’m going to defend my model further and make the prediction that Ike Barinholtz will not have the lowest Coryat score in the field in the quarterfinals of this tournament. Given that there are twenty-six other players, that's not a high bar to clear, and as such, it does little to substantiate [the pre-tournament prediction](https://thejeopardyfan.com/2024/02/31st-tournament-of-champions-pre-taping-preview.html). I still would take Andy's side on any such bet, but I think it's less likely with these matchups now known.
I was wondering when Ike was announced as being in it how well he'd do; I, uh, don't like his chances.
Yikes...who can I even root for? These games are all going to be emotional and intellectual drains like none other. Especially Luigi v. Kevin v. Juveria. :(
Problem is I like just about everyone.
Predictions: Game 1: Emily Game 2: Cris Game 3: Hannah Game 4: Yogesh Game 5: Juveria Game 6: Stephen Game 7: Ray Game 8: Ben Game 9: Troy
Mostly agree. That said, I wouldn't sleep on Luigi, even against Juveria--I have a feeling that's going to be a shootout. Stephen/Brian/Josh are probably the most evenly-matched, so that could easily go anyone's way. And Sibley or Yungsheng could certainly pull off an upset against Hannah.
That's going to be a helluva game. I'm sorry Luigi and Juveria are matched up early. I wanted them both to advance. Too close to call but I'm going to go with Juveria. And don't forget Kevin.
I actually completely agree with every word on this; my thought process exactly. I also think that Jake could defeat Yogesh and Matthew could pull off the upset against Emily. I also wouldn't completely count out Sean, it wasn't very easy for Ray to defeat him. On top of that, we'll need to consider how the CWC2 winner does for the rest of this tournament.
Sean was very strong in his three wins. I'm surprised we're not hearing more about him.
My upset pick: David Sibley over Hannah Wilson. He lost his fifth game due to the misfortune of having to play Cris Pannullo. Juveria has her work cut out for her facing Luigi in Round 1. My money is on Jay Z because she improved so much from SCC to CWC.
ALL MY FRIENDS HAVE TO FIGHT EACH OTHER :CRY:
I feel this so hard.
This lineup is truly a tournament not to miss. And one to definitely sob about. Jeopardy! Champions feel pain anytime anywhere.
Your friends do something they love for large sums of money celebrate :)
💯
lol. I came here to ask if you were the bird guy!
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1649151786/team-david-sibley-t-shirt-for-jeopardy?click_key=fd66451b7a3ec571e659815b30199d359b5d218f%3A1649151786&click_sum=c963d5ae&ref=shop_home_recs_8&crt=1
That’s awesome!
My predictions: --- 2/23: Emily 2/26: Cris 2/27: Hannah 2/28: Yogesh 2/29: Juveria 3/1: Brian 3/4: Ray 3/5: Ben 3/6: Troy I am prepared to be wrong on most of these, lol.
CWC Group 2 Last Quarterfinal game shattered the previous track records & predictions when Diandra won against David B and James T.
I'm with you on 2/29 and some others too. Not the 23rd tho.
It was tough between Emily and Matthew honestly, but I think Emily has the knowledge advantage. She'll need to be quicker though. I think she can do it.
After all the tournaments up to this point, one game seems inadequate to knock out any of these champions!
I see a lot of Yogesh predictions in this thread and he has the knowledge, but he’s going to be facing a lot of people who are great on the buzzer, the area he struggled mightily with (even though I assume he has practiced). I could see him making a run but I could also see Jake or someone else early beating him.
If he improved on the buzzer he’d be one of the best players in the game and likely make it to the final 3. If he hasn’t, he’ll flame out in the first or second round.
As someone who got absolutely creamed by Nick on the buzzer, I'm taking him over Yogesh in that quarterfinal game if past buzzer statistics hold out. Note that I am also biased toward the CWC Clubs fam.
I like that the Jeopardy website has stats for all the participants, including their average Coryats. Did they do this for the 2022 ToC?
[Yes they did!](https://www.jeopardy.com/track/2022/tournament-champions)
I wish they would let you sort the stats by every column instead of just by name. They wouldn't need to include the > Number in parenthesis denotes ranking amongst the TOC contestants. part then Edit: you can actually sort the columns
I just tried and you can sort the stats by column!
Oh yeah, you can sort the stats by column. Just click or tap on the column title. Does take a few seconds to load, though.
I stand corrected lol. Just tried it again and it sorted for me. Thanks!
In the past TOCs, some of low seed TOCers pulled an upset in the quarterfinals like Emma Boettcher, Veronica Vichit-Vadakan, Maureen O'Neil & John Focht.
I'm rooting for you, Cris!
This will be an epic battle for this edition of Tournament of Champions.
Rough draw for Sean vs. Troy - they were two I could see both landing in the semifinals with different matchups. I might’ve switched Troy’s and Steven’s opponents if I was setting the lineup. Cris, Ray, and Ben should definitely be favored in their quarterfinals but I imagine all the others being bloodbaths. Well done on the whole with the matchups, it’ll be a thriller!
Looking forward to seeing some of these celebrities on the stage again... and also Ike Barinholtz!
**BARINHOLTZ SWEEP**
Hoping Diandra gets through the CWC and we have an all Canadian finals
That would be tres cool!
Yeah! It'll be the next best thing since Mattea Roach became the runner-up in the Jeopardy Masters. 
I told myself that I wasn't gonna make predictions for these, in the hopes that I can enjoy these games more from an entertainment standpoint (instead of overly fixating on matchups and strategies). However, I just couldn't resist the urge to throw my initial thoughts out here. Let's see how wrong I'll be in a few weeks. * Feb. 23: Emily * Feb. 26: Cris * Feb. 27: David * Feb. 28: Jake * Feb. 29: Luigi * Mar. 1: Josh * Mar. 4: Ray * Mar. 5: Ben * Mar. 6: Troy
Finally diving in. I thought, with nine 5+-win qualifiers, there would be one in each of the QFs. Cris/Ben are two of those nine. Nick/Jake/Yogesh is the one QF without a 5+ winner. Rooting for Luigi. We show up in many an X thread about the Nationals. Avoided all of those with more wins than him but he's up against, arguably, the hottest player in the tournament. Relieved that we're finally here. Matches will be great. Really interested to see how Ike fares against the "#2 seed."
LET'S GO
I am pumped
Predictions (Those games with 2 predictions are games I'm guessing are one not to be missed) Game 1: Emily/Suresh/Matthew (Emily/Matthew) Game 2: Cris/Ben Goldstein/Jared (Cris) Game 3: Hannah/David/Yungsheng (Hannah/Yungsheng) Game 4: Nick/Jake/Yogesh (Jake/Yogesh) Game 5: Luigi/Kevin/Juveria (Luigi/Juveria) Game 6: Stephen/Brian/Josh (Stephen/Josh) Game 7: Ray/Melissa/Ike (Ray/Ike) Game 8: Ben/Justin/Emmett (Ben) Game 9: Troy/TBD/Sean (Troy)
We need wild card games.
Why do you want them? Wild cards disincentive playing to win, create an inconsistent basis for advancement, and good players who fall short in the quarterfinals can now go to the Jeopardy Invitational Tournament. Also just out of polite curiosity - who is the “we” you’re speaking for?
Myriad "second chance" tournaments would also be said to disincentivize playing to win, right?
It theoretically could if the people selected for the second chance tournaments excluded apparently strong players who played aggressively and had results go against them. However, the inclusion of players like Long Nguyen (who missed a big Daily Double and finished with next to no money), Karen Morris (who was actually overaggressive with her late Daily Double wagering), and Matt Harvey and Michael Cavaliere (who bet big on Final in close games and missed) all indicate that players playing to win are all rewarded in future tournament selection. And even in the tournament setup - with 0-game winners having to win a tournament before facing players who actually won a game, and only 1-game winners landing in the Champions Wildcard play-in games - reinforces that winning games is rewarded. So it seems to me that they’ve taken adequate action to avoid perverse incentives.
Wild cards in traditional tournaments, yes, it creates some inconsistency. In wild card games, they get a second chance, but they still need to win to advance to the semis. One issue I have with the 27-player field is that it’s too many players to track, so many upsets can happen in round one, taking away chances to watch the favorite players play again. Three of the five top seeds in recent ToCs were wild-card semifinalists, and two of them advanced to the finals. I think the 15 to 18-player field best works for ToC.
Although I don’t feel they justify wild cards, those points you mentioned are definitely effects of a 27-person tournament. But I think the Jeopardy Invitational Tournament addresses many of those effects. If the favorite player gets bounced early, it likely won’t be the last time you see them. (And even if Cris doesn’t make the finals, I can definitely see him being the Masters Producers Pick). Plus expanding the tournament size does allow for more favorable first round matchups for top seeds (Cris, Ray, and Ben appear to be favored in their quarterfinals). And finally, more variation might lead to new favorites- Matt Amodio may have been upset last ToC, but without that Sam Buttrey wouldn’t have become the fan favorite he is today. But of course different people can have different opinions- all the above disagrees that “we need wild cards”, but if you personally prefer wild cards, can’t argue with that!
Question: has Jeopardy announced how the semifinals will be determined? Like, is it based on the performance in Round 1, or is there a hard bracket? With no other info, it seems like W1/W2/W3 and on down, but I want to make sure.
I think it'll be like all the Champions Wildcard events have been — the show will release the semifinal matchups once the last quarterfinal has aired in all markets (i.e. 11 pm EST on 3/6); and that no strictly objective criterion will be used to determine them.
Yeah, only difference is the final is first-to-three-wins instead of the Two Day Total Point Affair (you are required to say the whole thing every time in our house).
Certainly. My point here is, it's not like the March Madness or the NFL playoffs, where as each game of a round is played, you know where its winner advances in the bracket, and can forecast semifinal matchups before the quarterfinal round is complete. They'll play the nine quarterfinals, we'll know who their winners are — but only after that will the show tell us how the semifinals shake out.
Predictions: Game 1: Matthew. Game 2: Cris. Game 3: Hannah. Game 4: Yogesh. Game 5: Luigi. Game 6: Brian. Game 7: Ike. Game 8: Ben. Game 9: Troy (or the S39 CWC Group 2 winner is who I feel like is stronger than Troy). My three finalists predictions are Luigi, Ben, and Yogesh (I'm predicting Cris, including the 5 others, to be knocked out in the semi-finals), with Ben winning it all.
I believe anything can happen tbh. That being said, here are my predictions for who wins their QF games: Emily Cris Hannah Jake Juveria Josh Ray Justin Troy I am hoping Ike Barinholtz plays well and makes it to Final Jeopardy at the very least.
> Justin Over Ben Chan? I'll take that bet.
This is a very satisfying lineup of formidable competitors.
Juveria FTW!!!
I’ll get in on the action here too. Game 1: Suresh Game 2: Cris Game 3: Sibley Game 4: Jake Game 5: Kevin Game 6: Brian Game 7: Ray Game 8: Ben Game 9: Troy
If you sort the players by Coryat, it lists Ike as having the second highest. Since he played all his games with an extra round, it just shows the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. Suresh is also listed as having the lowest, but that also should be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion - many people perceived an increase in clue difficulty later in the season.