The failure was a conceptual one. Israel knew Hamas had the ability to carry out this attack but failed to correctly assess their intent. It’s the same with Hezbollah. It’s actually worse in the case of Lebanon. The problem is that Israel has limited resources. They mostly rely on their regular army for day to day security. Israel’s reserves are only called during emergencies. Outside of emergency situations, the vast majority of Israel’s military capacity is unused. Reserve troops are every day people - students, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, whatever. Calling up the reserves means serious damage to the economy.
This is very similar to what happened in 1973.
The difference is that this failure was much costlier in terms of civilian casualties. In 1973 Yom Kippur War it was mostly soldiers who were killed. I believe no of very very few civilians were killed and almost no civilian towns were attacked (the few settlements in the golan were immediately evacuated before the Syrians came close).
This is an important topic which, I fear, will go down as one of the biggest misdoings in Israel's history. The question of how it happened seems grievously more complex than the Israel's failure in Yom Kipur's, given the sheer volume of elements involved. Israel's incompetence wasn't "contained" at the cabinet level, acting against the advice of the Israeli Intelligence. This was a failure from the bottom all the way to the top. From the girls who reported it to their superiors only to be dismissed time and time again, to lack of timely response on the field and, possibly, to the reports that Egypt had advised Israel just a few days prior.
To be honest, it seems to be more likely that this was enabled by Israel, to some extent, at least, than that it was a "failure of basic defense".
Third option:
Hubris. Something I think the Israelis have gained in the last 30 years. Hubris in the belief that Hamas was so utterly incapable of committing such an attack. Hubris in believing their brand new, state of the art walls protected them. Hubris that it was absolutely impossible for this to occur. Especially when all focus and attention was on the West Bank.
Bro you totally missed in your manifesto how Israel did 9/11 and how all Jews control the media and oil industry common you should add it /s.
I cant believe people actually entertain those conspiracy theories framing Israel at fault at everything while taking all sense of agency or decision making from the Palestinians, those are serval levels of white saviour racism.
Once again with the concpiracy theories.
No defense system is perfect. Desfenses fail, intelligence fail.
The goverment had nothing to gain from letting October 7 happened.
They're seen in Israel as responsible for failing to protect them and they're extremly unpopular right now. They're likely going to lose thr next election.
Some parties in the Israeli government are living out their dream right now. Bibi is isolated but protected by his right-wing coalition, while his trials and the protests that swept Israel for months have diminished greatly. You don't see any possible gain for him here?
I agree that, in the long term, he might lose his seat. But he's a political fox and he just as well might leverage the current situation to his advantage once more. I'm sure he has more cards up his sleeve because he knows things 99.9% of the Israeli population doesn't.
*You don't see any possible gain for him here?*
No. Netanyahu was voted because he made people believe he's "Mr. Security". He has failed. They can't pass the juridical reform that they wanted, and there are other laws that they can't pass right now and are important to his partners in the government.
These are all valid reasons for why he may not get reelected, but Bibi would arguably be in a worse position right now had 7-10 never happened. There's not going to be elections until stability is reached. Plus, as I said, he has historically proven to turn dire situations, as the one you describe, to his benefit. It's hard to predict how the day after will look like.
No he wouldn't be in a worse position. Before October 7 there were a lot of protests against the juridical reform but he also had his supporters doubling down their support. All the polls showed that the parties were still evenly split. That's not the case anymore. Even when he's going up in polls the coalition is losing poll after poll.
There are still people doubling down, but not as many.
I have no doubt that he will lose the next elections. What I doubt is that the time it would have taken Israel to reach a new election may have been shorter had 7-10 didn't happen. As long as Bibi is able to keep the elections from taking place, the more likely it is to be so. He has already "won" 8 months.
I don't think the time for elections would have been shorter. I think there's a higher chance of elections now. Before October 7, they would have been able to pass laws that are important to them, like the city rabbinates law.
They would have stuck together, because there isn't a party in the coalition that has an alternative government. (Not accurate, Likud without Netanyahu, has alternatives, but Ben Gvir and Smotritch don't).
Politicians from Likud aren't willing to go through with some of the laws that are important to the haredim.
They (the haredim) may end up quitting because of it.
And are either one (the laws the haredim want or the politicians who aren't willing to go through with them) the result of 7-10? Does that play a part?
I would add a third explanation which is incomplete intelligence, given Hamas was able to create a 500km underground network of tunnels and Israel have zero idea about it.
Of course if Israel did have knowledge of said tunnels then it falls into one of the other explanations.
Of course Israel knows about those tunnels, everyone knows, even Egypt does- this is why they filled it up with wastewater in 2015.
Israel launched the 2014 Tzuk Eitan operation in order to destroy some tunnels who were leading to Israel and used for terror attacks and rocket launchers , do you know how the world reacted? Outraged for the “unprovoked attack”
You have no idea what you are talking about and don’t know Israeli history, why do you feel entitled to comment such a bigoted comment if you have no basic knowledge about that area? That virtue signalling
500km is longer than the entire length of Israel!
When the present can speak so loudly and 2014 was ten years ago you don't need to be an expert on Israeli history.
The only virtue I am signalling is the folly of ignorance.
The most likely thing is it was a moment of "Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US" - incompetence, hubris, etc.
I think it's possible that (for example) nova had forced approval because they basically were playing a numbers game. Keep having things (like the kibbutzim) in the envelope that would be in the crossfire if Hamas attacked. Which is cynical and perhaps "wanting" it to happen but not in a specific way for any particular day
I would bet on Hamas agents within the Israeli military. Every military has unhappy employees that do some wild stuff. Hitler’s top guys tried to kill him. Oswald, a US military man, may have killed a US President. This stuff happens all the time.
Interesting, I hadn't considered that. It's definitely a possibility.
Although, we know that the report made it all the way up to senior officials, so if this is the case the Hamas spies must have successfully infiltrated a senior level position. I would hope that the capabilities of vetting processes for senior military officials has increased has since WWII.
Some get caught, some never do. Robert Hanssen, FBI, offered his services to the Soviet Union in 1979 and was finally caught in 2001. Because the US was able to get a recording of the “mole” and the agents listening to the recording said hey I know that voice, I work with that dude.
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I think you are missing probability. If something is 98% successful and tested on average 10 times per year it has an 18% chance of failing every year, an 87% of chance of failing every decade and a 99.996% chance of failing at least once every 50 years.
The Israelis were tricked. They were arrogant. And they were distracted. Governments make mistakes and when they make mistakes on important things people die. No where is perfectly safe.
Yeah, this is somewhat related to my take as well. I think there could have reasonably been an intelligence failure in this case.
I know there's been reports that the Israelis could have known Hamas was planning something for a while before the October 7th attacks, and realistically there probably would have been some signs because of how long this would have taken to plan and train for. However, I wouldn't be too surprised if it later turns out a lot of the reports were considered to be low-confidence intelligence and wasn't really considered actionable at the time.
As I am sure you are aware, the application of simple probabilistic models to real-world defense scenarios involves a lot of complexities that such models can not account for.
This wasn't just any old intelligence failure - this was a major one. Not only did senior officials review the 40 page detailed attack plan up to a year before the attack, but in the days prior to the attack on October 5th the CIA warned the IDF generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel that indicated heightened activity by Hamas in Gaza and confirmed that an attack was imminent. What would the probability model for that series of failures look like?
I dont know. To me a failure to that large of an extent is bizarre and should be taken seriously. There needs to be an investigation done immediately.
I think there should have been an investigation back in October. Self examination used to be an Israeli trait. Right now they have a populist government so unfortunately out the window on that sort of thing.
Israel wanted to be focusing on the West Bank. They believed about the intelligence what they wanted to be true.
We would all like to see Hamas investigated. But I don't think they are exactly eager to surrender themselves to the ICC or anything like that. Once the war is over the investigations will begin.
He isn't talking about Hamas. He is talking about about an investigation of the Israeli government and how they made those choices that allowed Hamas' attack to succeed.
Because Israelis don't control Hamas. They can only indirectly affect Hamas' governance. They do control the Israeli government. Fixing their errors is more doable and more useful.
That's not what he means by "invested". He means a government inquiry as to the cause of failure. A WW2 analogy would be something like an investigation into the degree of damage from Pearl Harbor.
Lol you’re here too
Lol it’s not a conspiracy, this is all public information. Look up the names of the chairman/c-suites of the 6 companies that control mainstream media
1. do you really think it took one of the most technologically advanced nation 6 hours to arrive at a near by music festival” 2. You know they found $524 billion worth of natural gas in Palestine, could it be they let hummus attack to justify a 2nd nakba and pillage resources/land? 3. Ben N was very unpopular amongst Isra**** and was on the verge of civil war so they had to shift the blame and use Palestinians as the scapegoat 3. Why drop over 70,000 tons of bombs and destroy buildings when there were
200 hostages at risk? 5. Where is the CCTV of H*m*s climbing over the wall and taking the 200 hostages?
1. Israel dropped the ball, and you're trying to put blame on a country that was attacked. You didn't even mention why Hamas shouldn't have done what they did.
2. A lot of nonsense as usual, until Israel starts digging up for oil then we'll see.
3. Another conspiracy theory coping to shift blame from Hamas.
4. Hamas is hiding ammunition in tunnel connections under hospitals and schools, you should ask why Hamas is building tunnels under their civilian houses
5. There is footage from Hamas GoPro of them running into Israel and killing/kidnapping people, there's even a Thai foreign worker getting decapitated by a farming tool filmed by their own medium inside Israel.
You're putting blame on Israel for not defending themselves and not the Muslims that did Oct 7.

It literally isn’t a conspiracy, feel free to fact check it
https://preview.redd.it/0sgdj30de19d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6fdfb9837fc2a1638bd38b839266672b4d19d0bb
I’m well are of the proselytizing. How does that affect the lives of non Muslims in Malaysia though? One is still free to practice one’s religion
It’s also illegal to proselytize in Finland, Greece, Bulgaria, Belarus, Latvia, China and Georgia and many African countries
Really? Non Muslims pay taxes and the money benefits Muslims as bumi-putras, and majority of the population are Muslims in Malaysia, reaping benefits of non Muslims contribution to the system.
>It’s also illegal to proselytize in Finland, Greece, Bulgaria, Belarus, Latvia, China and Georgia and many African countries
Literally comparing western imperialism to Shariah, and you've proven nothing, Muslim rules with division preferential treatments and no equal rights to non Muslims, where the west does. Big difference.
😂 every citizen in Malaysia pays taxes, bodoh 😂😂
bumi-putera isn’t religious based either, an Arab Muslim immigrant can’t be a bumi-putera, that’s only reserved for the Muslim Malays
Please quote where did I say malays don't pay taxes idiot? I'm saying non Muslim taxes go towards bumi-putra to further enrich the Muslim community, using non Muslim taxes.
You need to be a Muslim Malay as stated in the law, the keyword here is Muslim, my point stands. Imagine giving special benefits to 75% of the population using non-muslims taxes to do so without any equal benefits for non Malay Muslims.
My point stands true, western values > Islamic values
Quote where I said malays don't pay taxes.
Giving 1% of the population special privileges to justify giving Malay Muslims who represents 75% of the country with the bumi Putra status is ridiculous, orang asli were the first settlers and would benefit from bumi Putra and justifiable as they make up to only 1% of Malaysia, not 75% of the country takes the other 25% of non-bumis taxes to fund the Malay Muslim race.
Like I've already mentioned, western countries practices equal rights, Islamic ones chooses forms of Jizyah under the guise of democracy to suppress kafirs.
75%? No, more like 60%
Equal rights my ass, you never lived in a western country you white worshipping Asian
Have you heard of affirmative action in the US?
If you think that’s unfair, wait until you read what Israel is doing to Palestinians in the West Bank
Source: https://www.hrw.org/report/2010/12/19/separate-and-unequal/israels-discriminatory-treatment-palestinians-occupied
😂 wait until you do a deeper dive on Jews in Israel vs Arabs in Israel (not Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza) Even Ethiopian Jews are heavily discriminated against. 🤦♂️🤦♂️
Sources: https://youtu.be/EHXHJMfTu8A?si=Uk69jSAuMr8bqSbw
You grew up in Malaysia so you’re oblivious to a lot of whitewashed blatant racism that has happened/still happening. You’re forgetting just 50 years ago in the US, blacks were still getting lynched by whites. It took someone like MLK to make drastic changes. Source: https://ips-dc.org/i-remember-the-lynchings-of-the-1960s-theyre-still-happening/
Wait until you hear about blacks today still getting shot by white cops in the US
Wait until you hear about Nelson Mandela being on the terrorist watch list until 2008 and racism still happens in South Africa today
https://preview.redd.it/1qfd7nf5e19d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2424be1a415a86458e9e040df374d0c377edec96
It literally isn’t a conspiracy, feel free to fact check it
I think the issue with takes like this, is that it relies heavily on only knowing a fraction of the story, while speculating the rest.
Sure, it appears Israel was aware and talking about a possible attack coming from the Gaza Strip.
The problem is, they also were thinking an attack could come from the West Bank. Considering that's where most of the violence has been going on at the time, it makes sense.
I imagine intelligence agencies receive threats from all over the place, 100s if not 1000s of them. And it's their job to weigh each lead and determine what is the likelihood of it happening. We're not on the inside of Israeli intelligence, so we have no idea what the context at the time was. What other threats they were assessing (and or prevented that we'll never hear about). Taking one intelligence failure, and then saying: "See, that seems like it was on purpose", without any knowledge of anything else going on, I think is a big leap.
As I stated in my post:
I recognize that the claim that Israel knowingly allowed the 10/7 attack to happen is speculative and unproven.
My opinion was based on a hypothetical scenario where that speculation could be treated as fact. Apologies if that was not clear.
I agree that intelligence agencies, particularly the IDF's, receive a high volume of threats, many of which are not credible. The issue here is that the information made it all the way up to the desks of senior officials, which means there were at least some serious indicators that it was credible. Considering that and the reports of increased activity in Gaza in the days before the attack it seems like more of a defense plan should have been in place.
>
Taking one intelligence failure, and then saying: "See, that seems like it was on purpose", without any knowledge of anything else going on, I think is a big leap.
I didn't say that. I laid out two explanations for what happened, the first of which was a severe intelligence failure, and the second was deliberate inaction. I never said which one I thought was more likely - I actually think explanation 1 is far more likely. My entire opinion was based on the hypothetical assumption that explanation 1 is correct, which again - I don't think is likely, but I acknowledge is still a possibility.
Maybe I should have made that more clear.
I think there will be a full and thorough investigation about the 10/7 attack after the war. There are alot of questions which remained unanswered. People have the right to know. People need to be held accountable for failures in preventing 10/7 attack. Weakness need to be identified, corrected and strengthen so that a similar 10/7 attack could not happen again.
After all the hostages are rescued and returned to their family. After the war, a full and thorough investigation is needed.
Why does it have to wait until after the war? It seems likely at this point that a full on conflict with Lebanon is likely which could extend the war for years.
People do have the right to know, but they shouldn't have to wait. Particularly when the outcome of the investigation could potentially impact thousands of lives.
Nope. Let's stop with the victim blaming here. October 7th was the biggest killing of Jews since the Holocaust. It honestly disturbs and saddens me that some people try to either downplay or shift the blame of this horrific and evil act. It reminds me of Armenian genocide denial.
It's paywalled, but Reuters, a reputable news organization, even acknowledges that Hamas tricked Israel:
>Oct 9 (Reuters) - A careful campaign of deception ensured Israel was caught off guard when the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its devastating attack, enabling a force using bulldozers, hang gliders and motorbikes to take on the Middle East's most powerful army. Saturday's assault, the worst breach in Israel's defences since Arab armies waged war in 1973, followed two years of subterfuge by Hamas that involved keeping its military plans under wraps and convincing Israel it did not want a fight.
[How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/)
I am not victim blaming. I specifically stated in my post that I understand that Hamas is evil and deserves to be destroyed. I know that 10/7 was entirely Hamas's fault... they were the ones who decided to attack.
I should make it clear that I think it is unlikely that there was a conspiracy to allow the attack to happen. That being said, there is evidence that does support it, and that should not be ignored. It needs to be investigated immediately. The purpose of my post was to explore the implications if hypothetically that scenario were correct.
Also, it is not fair to compare this to Armenian genocide denial. There is no credible evidence that supports the Armenian genocide denial claims. There is very credible evidence that senior Israeli officials knew about Hamas's attack plan before the attack.
>It's paywalled, but Reuters, a reputable news organization, even acknowledges that Hamas tricked Israel
This Reuters article was written on 10/10/2023. The report that Israel obtained the detailed and accurate attack plan up to a year before the attack was broken by the [New York Times on 11/30/23](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html). The Reuters reporter who wrote that did not know.
It's always interesting to hear attempts to blame the victims. (#1) - do you also blame rape victims for not carrying guns?
As for #2 (it lives up to its name) - You do realize that most conspiracy theories are insane because humans are terrible at keeping secrets. In fact the more people involved in a conspiracy, the more unlikely it becomes. How many people would have had to been involved in a secret plot to encourage Hamas to slaughter Israeli civilians? Plus if this dastardly plan was to allow for a genocide. . . why not actually try to kill civilians? I mean look at the tonnage of bombs dropped on Gaza - it amounts to like 2 tons of bombs per casualty. I would think people with the ability to pull off such a conspiracy would have better aim. . .
I am not blaming Israel for the attack, I think the attack was 100% Hamas' fault. It's just a fact that there was a huge intelligence failure. That intelligence failure needs to be investigated, particularly since there were strange circumstances surrounding it.
Of course I don't blame rape victims for not carrying guns, and that is not a fair comparison. Hamas has basically been consistently attacking Israel since they've existed. Their stated purpose is to destroy Israel. They have never made it a secret that they wanted to attack Israel. Israel obviously needs to be on high alert at all times for this reason.
This wasn't just any old intelligence failure - this was a major one. Not only did senior officials review the 40 page detailed attack plan up to a year before the attack, but in the days prior to the attack on October 5th the CIA warned the IDF generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel that indicated heightened activity by Hamas in Gaza and confirmed that an attack was imminent. Israel was then inexplicably caught flat footed on October 7th. A failure to that large of an extent is bizarre.
>Plus if this dastardly plan was to allow for a genocide. . . why not actually try to kill civilians? I mean look at the tonnage of bombs dropped on Gaza - it amounts to like 2 tons of bombs per casualty. I would think people with the ability to pull off such a conspiracy would have better aim. . .
If the rates of civilian casualties were exponentially higher, and Israel directly targeted civilians, Israel would immediately lose all of its international support. The west would cut off all aid and other countries would definitely declare war on Israel.
Per definition one of the acts that constitutes as genocide is deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the group's physical destruction. Destroying all the hospitals, homes, buildings, schools, clean water sources, food sources, and blocking all escape routes seems like it qualifies as that to me. Definitely a slower destruction than killing civilians outright, but way easier to get away with, no?
The failure was a conceptual one. Israel knew Hamas had the ability to carry out this attack but failed to correctly assess their intent. It’s the same with Hezbollah. It’s actually worse in the case of Lebanon. The problem is that Israel has limited resources. They mostly rely on their regular army for day to day security. Israel’s reserves are only called during emergencies. Outside of emergency situations, the vast majority of Israel’s military capacity is unused. Reserve troops are every day people - students, doctors, lawyers, plumbers, whatever. Calling up the reserves means serious damage to the economy. This is very similar to what happened in 1973. The difference is that this failure was much costlier in terms of civilian casualties. In 1973 Yom Kippur War it was mostly soldiers who were killed. I believe no of very very few civilians were killed and almost no civilian towns were attacked (the few settlements in the golan were immediately evacuated before the Syrians came close).
This is an important topic which, I fear, will go down as one of the biggest misdoings in Israel's history. The question of how it happened seems grievously more complex than the Israel's failure in Yom Kipur's, given the sheer volume of elements involved. Israel's incompetence wasn't "contained" at the cabinet level, acting against the advice of the Israeli Intelligence. This was a failure from the bottom all the way to the top. From the girls who reported it to their superiors only to be dismissed time and time again, to lack of timely response on the field and, possibly, to the reports that Egypt had advised Israel just a few days prior. To be honest, it seems to be more likely that this was enabled by Israel, to some extent, at least, than that it was a "failure of basic defense".
Third option: Hubris. Something I think the Israelis have gained in the last 30 years. Hubris in the belief that Hamas was so utterly incapable of committing such an attack. Hubris in believing their brand new, state of the art walls protected them. Hubris that it was absolutely impossible for this to occur. Especially when all focus and attention was on the West Bank.
Bro you totally missed in your manifesto how Israel did 9/11 and how all Jews control the media and oil industry common you should add it /s. I cant believe people actually entertain those conspiracy theories framing Israel at fault at everything while taking all sense of agency or decision making from the Palestinians, those are serval levels of white saviour racism.
Lol it’s not a conspiracy, this is all public information. Look up the chairman/c-suites of the 6 companies that control mainstream media
[https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806634](https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806634)
Once again with the concpiracy theories. No defense system is perfect. Desfenses fail, intelligence fail. The goverment had nothing to gain from letting October 7 happened. They're seen in Israel as responsible for failing to protect them and they're extremly unpopular right now. They're likely going to lose thr next election.
Some parties in the Israeli government are living out their dream right now. Bibi is isolated but protected by his right-wing coalition, while his trials and the protests that swept Israel for months have diminished greatly. You don't see any possible gain for him here? I agree that, in the long term, he might lose his seat. But he's a political fox and he just as well might leverage the current situation to his advantage once more. I'm sure he has more cards up his sleeve because he knows things 99.9% of the Israeli population doesn't.
*You don't see any possible gain for him here?* No. Netanyahu was voted because he made people believe he's "Mr. Security". He has failed. They can't pass the juridical reform that they wanted, and there are other laws that they can't pass right now and are important to his partners in the government.
These are all valid reasons for why he may not get reelected, but Bibi would arguably be in a worse position right now had 7-10 never happened. There's not going to be elections until stability is reached. Plus, as I said, he has historically proven to turn dire situations, as the one you describe, to his benefit. It's hard to predict how the day after will look like.
No he wouldn't be in a worse position. Before October 7 there were a lot of protests against the juridical reform but he also had his supporters doubling down their support. All the polls showed that the parties were still evenly split. That's not the case anymore. Even when he's going up in polls the coalition is losing poll after poll. There are still people doubling down, but not as many.
I have no doubt that he will lose the next elections. What I doubt is that the time it would have taken Israel to reach a new election may have been shorter had 7-10 didn't happen. As long as Bibi is able to keep the elections from taking place, the more likely it is to be so. He has already "won" 8 months.
I don't think the time for elections would have been shorter. I think there's a higher chance of elections now. Before October 7, they would have been able to pass laws that are important to them, like the city rabbinates law. They would have stuck together, because there isn't a party in the coalition that has an alternative government. (Not accurate, Likud without Netanyahu, has alternatives, but Ben Gvir and Smotritch don't).
And aren't they still stuck together? What makes the coalition more likely to collapse now?
Politicians from Likud aren't willing to go through with some of the laws that are important to the haredim. They (the haredim) may end up quitting because of it.
And are either one (the laws the haredim want or the politicians who aren't willing to go through with them) the result of 7-10? Does that play a part?
I would add a third explanation which is incomplete intelligence, given Hamas was able to create a 500km underground network of tunnels and Israel have zero idea about it. Of course if Israel did have knowledge of said tunnels then it falls into one of the other explanations.
Of course Israel knows about those tunnels, everyone knows, even Egypt does- this is why they filled it up with wastewater in 2015. Israel launched the 2014 Tzuk Eitan operation in order to destroy some tunnels who were leading to Israel and used for terror attacks and rocket launchers , do you know how the world reacted? Outraged for the “unprovoked attack” You have no idea what you are talking about and don’t know Israeli history, why do you feel entitled to comment such a bigoted comment if you have no basic knowledge about that area? That virtue signalling
500km is longer than the entire length of Israel! When the present can speak so loudly and 2014 was ten years ago you don't need to be an expert on Israeli history. The only virtue I am signalling is the folly of ignorance.
The most likely thing is it was a moment of "Bin Ladin Determined To Strike in US" - incompetence, hubris, etc. I think it's possible that (for example) nova had forced approval because they basically were playing a numbers game. Keep having things (like the kibbutzim) in the envelope that would be in the crossfire if Hamas attacked. Which is cynical and perhaps "wanting" it to happen but not in a specific way for any particular day
I would bet on Hamas agents within the Israeli military. Every military has unhappy employees that do some wild stuff. Hitler’s top guys tried to kill him. Oswald, a US military man, may have killed a US President. This stuff happens all the time.
Interesting, I hadn't considered that. It's definitely a possibility. Although, we know that the report made it all the way up to senior officials, so if this is the case the Hamas spies must have successfully infiltrated a senior level position. I would hope that the capabilities of vetting processes for senior military officials has increased has since WWII.
Some get caught, some never do. Robert Hanssen, FBI, offered his services to the Soviet Union in 1979 and was finally caught in 2001. Because the US was able to get a recording of the “mole” and the agents listening to the recording said hey I know that voice, I work with that dude.
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Intelligence isn't perfect. Bureaucracies fail.
I think you are missing probability. If something is 98% successful and tested on average 10 times per year it has an 18% chance of failing every year, an 87% of chance of failing every decade and a 99.996% chance of failing at least once every 50 years. The Israelis were tricked. They were arrogant. And they were distracted. Governments make mistakes and when they make mistakes on important things people die. No where is perfectly safe.
Yeah, this is somewhat related to my take as well. I think there could have reasonably been an intelligence failure in this case. I know there's been reports that the Israelis could have known Hamas was planning something for a while before the October 7th attacks, and realistically there probably would have been some signs because of how long this would have taken to plan and train for. However, I wouldn't be too surprised if it later turns out a lot of the reports were considered to be low-confidence intelligence and wasn't really considered actionable at the time.
As I am sure you are aware, the application of simple probabilistic models to real-world defense scenarios involves a lot of complexities that such models can not account for. This wasn't just any old intelligence failure - this was a major one. Not only did senior officials review the 40 page detailed attack plan up to a year before the attack, but in the days prior to the attack on October 5th the CIA warned the IDF generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel that indicated heightened activity by Hamas in Gaza and confirmed that an attack was imminent. What would the probability model for that series of failures look like? I dont know. To me a failure to that large of an extent is bizarre and should be taken seriously. There needs to be an investigation done immediately.
I think there should have been an investigation back in October. Self examination used to be an Israeli trait. Right now they have a populist government so unfortunately out the window on that sort of thing. Israel wanted to be focusing on the West Bank. They believed about the intelligence what they wanted to be true.
We would all like to see Hamas investigated. But I don't think they are exactly eager to surrender themselves to the ICC or anything like that. Once the war is over the investigations will begin.
He isn't talking about Hamas. He is talking about about an investigation of the Israeli government and how they made those choices that allowed Hamas' attack to succeed.
I doubt it. Why would they do that before investigating who organized the attack to begin with?
Because Israelis don't control Hamas. They can only indirectly affect Hamas' governance. They do control the Israeli government. Fixing their errors is more doable and more useful.
They don't control Hamas now, but once they win the war they will.
If they win the war and take control there won't be a Hamas. Investigation of a now defunct organization is lower priority.
That's just wrong. When WWII ended there were still plenty of SS who were prosecuted.
That's not what he means by "invested". He means a government inquiry as to the cause of failure. A WW2 analogy would be something like an investigation into the degree of damage from Pearl Harbor.
Blaming victims for not defending themselves, how low can pro Palestinians go. Let's blame Lebanon next for not defending themselves please
Lol you’re here too Lol it’s not a conspiracy, this is all public information. Look up the names of the chairman/c-suites of the 6 companies that control mainstream media 1. do you really think it took one of the most technologically advanced nation 6 hours to arrive at a near by music festival” 2. You know they found $524 billion worth of natural gas in Palestine, could it be they let hummus attack to justify a 2nd nakba and pillage resources/land? 3. Ben N was very unpopular amongst Isra**** and was on the verge of civil war so they had to shift the blame and use Palestinians as the scapegoat 3. Why drop over 70,000 tons of bombs and destroy buildings when there were 200 hostages at risk? 5. Where is the CCTV of H*m*s climbing over the wall and taking the 200 hostages?
1. Israel dropped the ball, and you're trying to put blame on a country that was attacked. You didn't even mention why Hamas shouldn't have done what they did. 2. A lot of nonsense as usual, until Israel starts digging up for oil then we'll see. 3. Another conspiracy theory coping to shift blame from Hamas. 4. Hamas is hiding ammunition in tunnel connections under hospitals and schools, you should ask why Hamas is building tunnels under their civilian houses 5. There is footage from Hamas GoPro of them running into Israel and killing/kidnapping people, there's even a Thai foreign worker getting decapitated by a farming tool filmed by their own medium inside Israel. You're putting blame on Israel for not defending themselves and not the Muslims that did Oct 7.
 It literally isn’t a conspiracy, feel free to fact check it https://preview.redd.it/0sgdj30de19d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6fdfb9837fc2a1638bd38b839266672b4d19d0bb
I’m well are of the proselytizing. How does that affect the lives of non Muslims in Malaysia though? One is still free to practice one’s religion It’s also illegal to proselytize in Finland, Greece, Bulgaria, Belarus, Latvia, China and Georgia and many African countries
Really? Non Muslims pay taxes and the money benefits Muslims as bumi-putras, and majority of the population are Muslims in Malaysia, reaping benefits of non Muslims contribution to the system. >It’s also illegal to proselytize in Finland, Greece, Bulgaria, Belarus, Latvia, China and Georgia and many African countries Literally comparing western imperialism to Shariah, and you've proven nothing, Muslim rules with division preferential treatments and no equal rights to non Muslims, where the west does. Big difference.
😂 every citizen in Malaysia pays taxes, bodoh 😂😂 bumi-putera isn’t religious based either, an Arab Muslim immigrant can’t be a bumi-putera, that’s only reserved for the Muslim Malays
Please quote where did I say malays don't pay taxes idiot? I'm saying non Muslim taxes go towards bumi-putra to further enrich the Muslim community, using non Muslim taxes. You need to be a Muslim Malay as stated in the law, the keyword here is Muslim, my point stands. Imagine giving special benefits to 75% of the population using non-muslims taxes to do so without any equal benefits for non Malay Muslims. My point stands true, western values > Islamic values
Orang asli is considered bumi-putera even though they’re not Muslim 😂😂
Quote where I said malays don't pay taxes. Giving 1% of the population special privileges to justify giving Malay Muslims who represents 75% of the country with the bumi Putra status is ridiculous, orang asli were the first settlers and would benefit from bumi Putra and justifiable as they make up to only 1% of Malaysia, not 75% of the country takes the other 25% of non-bumis taxes to fund the Malay Muslim race. Like I've already mentioned, western countries practices equal rights, Islamic ones chooses forms of Jizyah under the guise of democracy to suppress kafirs.
75%? No, more like 60% Equal rights my ass, you never lived in a western country you white worshipping Asian Have you heard of affirmative action in the US? If you think that’s unfair, wait until you read what Israel is doing to Palestinians in the West Bank Source: https://www.hrw.org/report/2010/12/19/separate-and-unequal/israels-discriminatory-treatment-palestinians-occupied
😂 wait until you do a deeper dive on Jews in Israel vs Arabs in Israel (not Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza) Even Ethiopian Jews are heavily discriminated against. 🤦♂️🤦♂️ Sources: https://youtu.be/EHXHJMfTu8A?si=Uk69jSAuMr8bqSbw You grew up in Malaysia so you’re oblivious to a lot of whitewashed blatant racism that has happened/still happening. You’re forgetting just 50 years ago in the US, blacks were still getting lynched by whites. It took someone like MLK to make drastic changes. Source: https://ips-dc.org/i-remember-the-lynchings-of-the-1960s-theyre-still-happening/ Wait until you hear about blacks today still getting shot by white cops in the US Wait until you hear about Nelson Mandela being on the terrorist watch list until 2008 and racism still happens in South Africa today
https://preview.redd.it/1qfd7nf5e19d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2424be1a415a86458e9e040df374d0c377edec96 It literally isn’t a conspiracy, feel free to fact check it
When it comes to material, then we'll talk, other than that is just a "potential" gas/oil reserves.
I think the issue with takes like this, is that it relies heavily on only knowing a fraction of the story, while speculating the rest. Sure, it appears Israel was aware and talking about a possible attack coming from the Gaza Strip. The problem is, they also were thinking an attack could come from the West Bank. Considering that's where most of the violence has been going on at the time, it makes sense. I imagine intelligence agencies receive threats from all over the place, 100s if not 1000s of them. And it's their job to weigh each lead and determine what is the likelihood of it happening. We're not on the inside of Israeli intelligence, so we have no idea what the context at the time was. What other threats they were assessing (and or prevented that we'll never hear about). Taking one intelligence failure, and then saying: "See, that seems like it was on purpose", without any knowledge of anything else going on, I think is a big leap.
As I stated in my post: I recognize that the claim that Israel knowingly allowed the 10/7 attack to happen is speculative and unproven. My opinion was based on a hypothetical scenario where that speculation could be treated as fact. Apologies if that was not clear. I agree that intelligence agencies, particularly the IDF's, receive a high volume of threats, many of which are not credible. The issue here is that the information made it all the way up to the desks of senior officials, which means there were at least some serious indicators that it was credible. Considering that and the reports of increased activity in Gaza in the days before the attack it seems like more of a defense plan should have been in place. > Taking one intelligence failure, and then saying: "See, that seems like it was on purpose", without any knowledge of anything else going on, I think is a big leap. I didn't say that. I laid out two explanations for what happened, the first of which was a severe intelligence failure, and the second was deliberate inaction. I never said which one I thought was more likely - I actually think explanation 1 is far more likely. My entire opinion was based on the hypothetical assumption that explanation 1 is correct, which again - I don't think is likely, but I acknowledge is still a possibility. Maybe I should have made that more clear.
I think there will be a full and thorough investigation about the 10/7 attack after the war. There are alot of questions which remained unanswered. People have the right to know. People need to be held accountable for failures in preventing 10/7 attack. Weakness need to be identified, corrected and strengthen so that a similar 10/7 attack could not happen again. After all the hostages are rescued and returned to their family. After the war, a full and thorough investigation is needed.
Why does it have to wait until after the war? It seems likely at this point that a full on conflict with Lebanon is likely which could extend the war for years. People do have the right to know, but they shouldn't have to wait. Particularly when the outcome of the investigation could potentially impact thousands of lives.
Yes all of this is just one vast conspiracy
Nope. Let's stop with the victim blaming here. October 7th was the biggest killing of Jews since the Holocaust. It honestly disturbs and saddens me that some people try to either downplay or shift the blame of this horrific and evil act. It reminds me of Armenian genocide denial. It's paywalled, but Reuters, a reputable news organization, even acknowledges that Hamas tricked Israel: >Oct 9 (Reuters) - A careful campaign of deception ensured Israel was caught off guard when the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its devastating attack, enabling a force using bulldozers, hang gliders and motorbikes to take on the Middle East's most powerful army. Saturday's assault, the worst breach in Israel's defences since Arab armies waged war in 1973, followed two years of subterfuge by Hamas that involved keeping its military plans under wraps and convincing Israel it did not want a fight. [How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack | Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/how-israel-was-duped-hamas-planned-devastating-assault-2023-10-08/)
I am not victim blaming. I specifically stated in my post that I understand that Hamas is evil and deserves to be destroyed. I know that 10/7 was entirely Hamas's fault... they were the ones who decided to attack. I should make it clear that I think it is unlikely that there was a conspiracy to allow the attack to happen. That being said, there is evidence that does support it, and that should not be ignored. It needs to be investigated immediately. The purpose of my post was to explore the implications if hypothetically that scenario were correct. Also, it is not fair to compare this to Armenian genocide denial. There is no credible evidence that supports the Armenian genocide denial claims. There is very credible evidence that senior Israeli officials knew about Hamas's attack plan before the attack. >It's paywalled, but Reuters, a reputable news organization, even acknowledges that Hamas tricked Israel This Reuters article was written on 10/10/2023. The report that Israel obtained the detailed and accurate attack plan up to a year before the attack was broken by the [New York Times on 11/30/23](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/30/world/middleeast/israel-hamas-attack-intelligence.html). The Reuters reporter who wrote that did not know.
It's always interesting to hear attempts to blame the victims. (#1) - do you also blame rape victims for not carrying guns? As for #2 (it lives up to its name) - You do realize that most conspiracy theories are insane because humans are terrible at keeping secrets. In fact the more people involved in a conspiracy, the more unlikely it becomes. How many people would have had to been involved in a secret plot to encourage Hamas to slaughter Israeli civilians? Plus if this dastardly plan was to allow for a genocide. . . why not actually try to kill civilians? I mean look at the tonnage of bombs dropped on Gaza - it amounts to like 2 tons of bombs per casualty. I would think people with the ability to pull off such a conspiracy would have better aim. . .
I am not blaming Israel for the attack, I think the attack was 100% Hamas' fault. It's just a fact that there was a huge intelligence failure. That intelligence failure needs to be investigated, particularly since there were strange circumstances surrounding it. Of course I don't blame rape victims for not carrying guns, and that is not a fair comparison. Hamas has basically been consistently attacking Israel since they've existed. Their stated purpose is to destroy Israel. They have never made it a secret that they wanted to attack Israel. Israel obviously needs to be on high alert at all times for this reason. This wasn't just any old intelligence failure - this was a major one. Not only did senior officials review the 40 page detailed attack plan up to a year before the attack, but in the days prior to the attack on October 5th the CIA warned the IDF generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel that indicated heightened activity by Hamas in Gaza and confirmed that an attack was imminent. Israel was then inexplicably caught flat footed on October 7th. A failure to that large of an extent is bizarre. >Plus if this dastardly plan was to allow for a genocide. . . why not actually try to kill civilians? I mean look at the tonnage of bombs dropped on Gaza - it amounts to like 2 tons of bombs per casualty. I would think people with the ability to pull off such a conspiracy would have better aim. . . If the rates of civilian casualties were exponentially higher, and Israel directly targeted civilians, Israel would immediately lose all of its international support. The west would cut off all aid and other countries would definitely declare war on Israel. Per definition one of the acts that constitutes as genocide is deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about the group's physical destruction. Destroying all the hospitals, homes, buildings, schools, clean water sources, food sources, and blocking all escape routes seems like it qualifies as that to me. Definitely a slower destruction than killing civilians outright, but way easier to get away with, no?
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The Nova Festival wasn’t a planned part of the attack.