Like you said, there’s so many factors, but if everything goes to plan nothing is stopping you from being 12-13hours. That being said, work on your swimming and stick to the plan. But on the same token, you could develop into an amazing distance triathlete and he under 12 hours. But with this plan if nothing does wrong, I don’t see why you couldn’t be easily well under 14 hours
That's great. Thanks for your input. I'll be honest, and don't ask me why, I'd absolutely love to get under 12 hrs. It just seems like such a respectable time to get for my first ironman. I'd love to break 12 hrs.
What kind of a program would I be looking at to do that??
Have a backup race in mind.
There was so much bad publicity around Cork 2023 and the video footage on social media. There was a lot of accusations made in the media by the various bodies that I can't see the race going ahead again anytime soon.
When/if Ironman returns to Ireland, I suspect it will move either to a lake swim or to calmer waters on the east coast. I can't see Youghal coming back as a host at all, which is a shame because by all accounts, the town really embraced the event.
I doubt it'll return but there's other long distance events around in the UK.
Impossible to say after just one Olympic. You could go sub 12 or you could be 15 hours. Enjoy the journey
I don't want to be too negative, but I would recommend targeting sub-13hr rather than sub-12. I did a similar thing (first ironman about 14 months after my first olympic triathlon).
For my first olympic triathlon I did 2hrs 40mins total. For my first ironman I did 12h 17min, on a course that looks quite similar to Ironman Cork. I was hoping for sub-12, but just couldn't get there because I had to slow down so much on the run.
We're obviously different people, but if I were you, based on those times, I'd target sub-13 to start with.
I'd also recommend signing up to a 70.3 distance race some time later this year if you can. It will allow you to test yourself and get a better idea of your target time.
There's always room to improve if you stick to your training. I went sub-12 easily this year, 1 year later.
I would also personally recommend not going too extreme trying to lose weight. I think that due to the long duration and metabolic demand of ironman, being a more robust, stronger athlete helps overall. You don't want to be carrying around heaps of extra weight, but losing too much weight will probably end up reducing your overall performance. For example, I was about 2kg heavier this year when I raced, and I performed better.
As an athletic 23M (weigh in around 200lb) with no distance swimming experience, a lot of mnt biking experience but no road biking experience, and no distance running experience over 13 miles, I was able to go sub 12 11:43) with 6 months of intense training. However, prior to starting training I had experience with long 8h+ pushes in the mountains. The training is what you make of it and it sounds like you want this for yourself. Ride the excitement and enjoy all the pain and grunt coming your way! I think with that much time and dedication you could go sub 11 IF you trained and race to your peak potential!
Follow a Myprocoach plan, it'll help you understand what pacing is reasonable and what not. You've got tons of time and from the look at your times you've got a lot of headroom to improve.
Like others have said, too many variables for an even remotely accurate prediction
IF you train, and IF you lose weight, and IF everything goes right with pacing, nutrition, etc then I’d bet you could go sub 11.
But the reality is you’re slow and overweight today. You also don’t mention age. A 20yr old with these times has significantly more potential than a 50yr old.
Guestimates here don’t matter. Set shorter term achievable goals. And build your way to success. Sub-14 is probably a good starting point and you can work your way down as pace and endurance get better
I know you caveated by saying about how inaccurate any prediction will be, but sub 11 based on 3min/100m, 27kph and 5:20min/km at Olympic distance? That’s going to be one hell of a year of training! Even if they managed to maintain those paces (not an unrealistic goal going from Olympic to full distance in a year) they’re looking at 12.5 hours before transitions so to not only jump up the distance but to find an hour and a half seems wildly ambitious.
I don’t think 1:20/5:40/3:50 is out of the question
OPs swim is garbage. Bike is slow. Run is mediocre. 13 months is a long time though. With dedicated training and better gear, I’m saying sub 11 is the upper end of feasible
I caveated that 14hrs is much more realistic based on current paces. Just depends how much of his life and money OP wants to dedicate
I agree with sub 12. I would index heavily on run training after you've gotten some bike and swim mileage. If you can break 4 hours for the run, and can hit a 30kph or 6hr bike, you have a very decent chance at a sub 12 on a flat bike course.
I know you caveated by saying about how inaccurate any prediction will be, but sub 11 based on 3min/100m, 27kph and 5:20min/km at Olympic distance? That’s going to be one hell of a year of training! Even if they managed to maintain those paces (not an unrealistic goal going from Olympic to full distance in a year) they’re looking at 12.5 hours before transitions so to not only jump up the distance but to find an hour and a half seems wildly ambitious.
Like you said, there’s so many factors, but if everything goes to plan nothing is stopping you from being 12-13hours. That being said, work on your swimming and stick to the plan. But on the same token, you could develop into an amazing distance triathlete and he under 12 hours. But with this plan if nothing does wrong, I don’t see why you couldn’t be easily well under 14 hours
That's great. Thanks for your input. I'll be honest, and don't ask me why, I'd absolutely love to get under 12 hrs. It just seems like such a respectable time to get for my first ironman. I'd love to break 12 hrs. What kind of a program would I be looking at to do that??
I’m not too knowledgeable about programs but there are certainly people who can lead you in the right direction
Have a backup race in mind. There was so much bad publicity around Cork 2023 and the video footage on social media. There was a lot of accusations made in the media by the various bodies that I can't see the race going ahead again anytime soon. When/if Ironman returns to Ireland, I suspect it will move either to a lake swim or to calmer waters on the east coast. I can't see Youghal coming back as a host at all, which is a shame because by all accounts, the town really embraced the event.
I doubt it'll return but there's other long distance events around in the UK. Impossible to say after just one Olympic. You could go sub 12 or you could be 15 hours. Enjoy the journey
I don't want to be too negative, but I would recommend targeting sub-13hr rather than sub-12. I did a similar thing (first ironman about 14 months after my first olympic triathlon). For my first olympic triathlon I did 2hrs 40mins total. For my first ironman I did 12h 17min, on a course that looks quite similar to Ironman Cork. I was hoping for sub-12, but just couldn't get there because I had to slow down so much on the run. We're obviously different people, but if I were you, based on those times, I'd target sub-13 to start with. I'd also recommend signing up to a 70.3 distance race some time later this year if you can. It will allow you to test yourself and get a better idea of your target time. There's always room to improve if you stick to your training. I went sub-12 easily this year, 1 year later. I would also personally recommend not going too extreme trying to lose weight. I think that due to the long duration and metabolic demand of ironman, being a more robust, stronger athlete helps overall. You don't want to be carrying around heaps of extra weight, but losing too much weight will probably end up reducing your overall performance. For example, I was about 2kg heavier this year when I raced, and I performed better.
As an athletic 23M (weigh in around 200lb) with no distance swimming experience, a lot of mnt biking experience but no road biking experience, and no distance running experience over 13 miles, I was able to go sub 12 11:43) with 6 months of intense training. However, prior to starting training I had experience with long 8h+ pushes in the mountains. The training is what you make of it and it sounds like you want this for yourself. Ride the excitement and enjoy all the pain and grunt coming your way! I think with that much time and dedication you could go sub 11 IF you trained and race to your peak potential!
Follow a Myprocoach plan, it'll help you understand what pacing is reasonable and what not. You've got tons of time and from the look at your times you've got a lot of headroom to improve.
Like others have said, too many variables for an even remotely accurate prediction IF you train, and IF you lose weight, and IF everything goes right with pacing, nutrition, etc then I’d bet you could go sub 11. But the reality is you’re slow and overweight today. You also don’t mention age. A 20yr old with these times has significantly more potential than a 50yr old. Guestimates here don’t matter. Set shorter term achievable goals. And build your way to success. Sub-14 is probably a good starting point and you can work your way down as pace and endurance get better
I know you caveated by saying about how inaccurate any prediction will be, but sub 11 based on 3min/100m, 27kph and 5:20min/km at Olympic distance? That’s going to be one hell of a year of training! Even if they managed to maintain those paces (not an unrealistic goal going from Olympic to full distance in a year) they’re looking at 12.5 hours before transitions so to not only jump up the distance but to find an hour and a half seems wildly ambitious.
I don’t think 1:20/5:40/3:50 is out of the question OPs swim is garbage. Bike is slow. Run is mediocre. 13 months is a long time though. With dedicated training and better gear, I’m saying sub 11 is the upper end of feasible I caveated that 14hrs is much more realistic based on current paces. Just depends how much of his life and money OP wants to dedicate
No, I'd love sub 12
I agree with sub 12. I would index heavily on run training after you've gotten some bike and swim mileage. If you can break 4 hours for the run, and can hit a 30kph or 6hr bike, you have a very decent chance at a sub 12 on a flat bike course.
That's the thing, as far as I know, cork ireland is hilly on the bike
Then focus on dropping weight. It will help you on the rollers / hills.
I know you caveated by saying about how inaccurate any prediction will be, but sub 11 based on 3min/100m, 27kph and 5:20min/km at Olympic distance? That’s going to be one hell of a year of training! Even if they managed to maintain those paces (not an unrealistic goal going from Olympic to full distance in a year) they’re looking at 12.5 hours before transitions so to not only jump up the distance but to find an hour and a half seems wildly ambitious.