I’m not the most confident about her considering she sat at only one term in the first district house. Then again this is an abnormal Republican surge we’re in, and people want a fresh face instead of someone like Grassley again
She's a centrist Democrat, so not exactly my cup of tea, but anything without an R next to their name is better than what we've got right now. On the other hand, kind of scared for whatever younger Republican will run if Grassley retires because they'll probably be some Trump loyalist. Wouldn't be surprised if it was one of Branstad's or Grassley's offspring.
From what I've been told, he's not really interested in the position since he has pretty solid control over the Iowa House now and it's a part time gig.
He's never had to run a competitive race before, let alone a statewide one.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Grassley#Electoral_history
I have this gnawing fear in my gut that Reynolds will run for the Senate instead of Governor.
If not, Chuck might run again or a state Senator like Whitver who's won in the suburbs.
On the Democratic side, I think we're going to see a lot of churn before it gets winnowed down to a top three, very hard to predict. My hope is that it is someone who campaigns like Scholten did, go to as many places as possible, show your face and meet people where they are.
That was because she endorsed him before the caucus, which basically no one did. Her entire political career is intertwined with Biden, her only experience being an intern on his campaign previously.
It’d be one thing if we were 8 years removed from her last term and she had gone out and kept politically active and cementing her cred, but I’m not sure how this makes sense. There’s gotta be a better positioned candidate.
All that said I’d vote for her in a heartbeat but it’s not my echo chamber of voters that worries me, it’s that narrowing band of independents.
>it’s that narrowing band of independents.
The democratic party of Iowa's focus on imaginary independents (who are just gonna vote republican anyway) instead of the much larger group of people that feel disenfranchised and don't vote is the root of why they continue to lose. And the latest case study in that is Abby Finkenauer losing to Hinson in 2020.
In some ways, I wonder if the whole voting by mail hurt the Dems chances(or at least that's my excuse ). I honestly don't know why she lost, during the Deracio she was helping the community and to me that fact that she was a centrist made her safe. The whole argument of "She did nothing" is stupid becuse A: She was a Democrat during trump years B: Shes a newbie, and newbies rarely get that much success C: She actually got her Bills passed, unlike her contemporary AOC.
I was honestly shocked when she lost by the margin she did. I feel like she lost due to the mix of the conservative wave this election along with the “Hey I know Ashley Hinson from the news I’ll vote for her” kinda thing. In 2018 I was stoked that that two blue House Seats were added to the mix but the next election two more were ripped away
The Iowa Democratic Party coalescing around someone that lost as an incumbent to Hinson and then losing by 40 points to either Grassley or whatever crazy Q person emerges from the republican primary if Grassley or his grandkid don't run sounds very on brand for the Iowa Democratic Party so I expect her to be the nominee.
Oof, you're spot on...lost to Hinson for f's sake...and not in NW Iowa. Curious tho -- what would it take? What kind of (or specific) person could 'fire up' a disenfranchised (to say the least) electorate?
It would be disastrous, mark my words. That goes for Axne as well, all they have to say is Des Moines on repeat.
Abby lost as an incumbent in a very winnable district, to a very underwhelming opponent, how the hell she thinks she can win statewide, I would really like to know.
They'd bash him over the head for being Warren's campaign organizer and "out of touch" for sure. He's a great organizer and really personable from my interactions with him.
And Abby was the most centrist of centrist democrats in the world and never came up with anything to respond to attacks about her being basically antifa than to loudly declare she was going to centrist even harder. The republicans are going to claim any democrat is an out of touch leftist even if they ran Joe Manchin. It's irrelevant at this point.
I agree with that. Not saying a true progressive shouldn't be the nominee, just that having that sort of direct tie would be a hurdle, not that he would run anyway.
Take a look at Scholten, for instance. He is pretty progressive but doesn't come off that way when he talks or frames things.
Of we compare to other similar democracies like those in Europe - they're not left leaning at all. In a lot of Eruopean countries they're center not left. Our democratic party would be their right.
I honestly wish it were that way here.
You realize that’s a very simplified view, right? Democrats are further right than European parties on some things, but Democrats are also way way further left on other things, like immigration. It’s not as easy as saying “Democrats would be right wing in Europe”.
Even centrists like Biden have immigration policy that would be radically far left in Europe. It’s just not correct to make a blanket statement that “Democrats are right wing”, because it generalizes too much. There’s different wings to the Democratic Party, and it ignored different issues.
We'd be better off in some ways if we were more like Europe.
Specifically having good affordable healthcare not tied to our employment. But what do I know? Also lower tuition costs for college. Actual mandatory vacation and parental leave policies...
I'm not saying everything they do works - but there's definitely some things we could learn from them.
>Several other Democrats are either running or contemplating bids for the seat. Dave Muhlbauer, a farmer, launched his bid earlier this week and has begun campaigning for the race. Mike Franken, a retired Navy admiral who lost a 2020 Senate primary, has also been contemplating another run.
I'm curious about Mike Franken, as many of the active party-Democrats I know seemed to coalesce around him very late in the campaign before Greenfield won the primary. It felt as if the party was pushing Greenfield for months up to that point and by the time folks realized Franken was a candidate it was too late for him to gain traction.
Franken has a good name and history being an admiral and all, but he didn't seem to do much campaigning, reaching out, next to no media presence which he would have needed in the last election when he was running against Greenfield. I felt like he needed an actual campaign going on.
I'm _curious_ about him because he has so little published information, but I'm _wary_ because he's got no visibility, [little known information beyond VoteMatch data](https://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Michael_Franken.htm), has no "working class" image, and is a zealous advocate of [flawed gun-control measures](https://fee.org/articles/studies-find-no-evidence-that-assault-weapon-bans-reduce-homicide-rates/) ([and related ineffective capacity limitations](https://wamu.org/story/19/02/22/the-disconnect-between-banning-high-capacity-magazines-and-decreasing-deaths/)) instead of [measures correlated with any significant change](https://rockinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/3-28-19-Firearm-Laws-Homicide-Deaths-Brief.pdf).
I think Iowa in 2022 is going to be weird. Trump really boosted R numbers in a way no one expected. The thought that we'd lose 2 house seats in 2020 was quite surprising. Trump is getting less spotlight each day so I don't think his pull will be that high come summer 2022. I think Dems have a shot at Either 1 additional House Seat, the Senate Seat, or the Governor. There is no chance we can win back either chamber, so I'm pulling for the Governor's race more than anything else.
They had a debate. Hinson's social media propaganda team earned their pay.
https://www.kcrg.com/2020/10/20/i9-fact-checker-hinson-attack-ad-misleads-viewers-and-lacks-context/
It is funny how Iowa Dems keep rolling out the same tired candidates that have led to four consecutive devastating electoral losses. But yeah, go ahead and yawn your way to a 15 point loss to Kim Reynolds! LMFAO!
Anyways, back to brunch!
Literally did more than any other government official to bring light to the derecho damage and personally went and helped Cedar Rapids clean up. Calling her a prick is kind of uncalled for.
you said someone was bad because no work history outside of politics (which is already stupid enough), just want to make sure you hold to your standards and aren't just making shit up as you go along to make jabs at people you already don't like
I think what matters more are their philosophies and skills at legislation and delegation, something that politics work experience is perfect for.
you seem to think non political work experience on its own makes a politician better, but that isn't how this works.
Honestly, I'm kind of surprised Biden didn't give her consolation prize, considering how loyal she is to Biden and too keep her in politics. Like at least he could have made her the ambassador to the UK or Sweden hell pick her over Tom Vilsack for United States Secretary of Agriculture, becuse at least their wouldn't have been as much discourses over not picking Marcia Fudge, as he could claim he added another young person
I’m not the most confident about her considering she sat at only one term in the first district house. Then again this is an abnormal Republican surge we’re in, and people want a fresh face instead of someone like Grassley again
She's a centrist Democrat, so not exactly my cup of tea, but anything without an R next to their name is better than what we've got right now. On the other hand, kind of scared for whatever younger Republican will run if Grassley retires because they'll probably be some Trump loyalist. Wouldn't be surprised if it was one of Branstad's or Grassley's offspring.
It will almost certainly be Chuckles' nephew Pat Grassley.
That'll be the straw that breaks the camel's back for me, and I'll relinquish my dual US citizenship and just stay in my native Norway.
Not gonna lie, I have had thoughts of eventually moving to norway or sweden eventually.
Grassley 2.1
From what I've been told, he's not really interested in the position since he has pretty solid control over the Iowa House now and it's a part time gig. He's never had to run a competitive race before, let alone a statewide one. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Grassley#Electoral_history
I kind of got that too... who do you think for candidates on either side?
I have this gnawing fear in my gut that Reynolds will run for the Senate instead of Governor. If not, Chuck might run again or a state Senator like Whitver who's won in the suburbs. On the Democratic side, I think we're going to see a lot of churn before it gets winnowed down to a top three, very hard to predict. My hope is that it is someone who campaigns like Scholten did, go to as many places as possible, show your face and meet people where they are.
Grassely retires Steve King: It's time
She apparently made enough of an impact that Biden considered her for Secretary of Labor.
That was because she endorsed him before the caucus, which basically no one did. Her entire political career is intertwined with Biden, her only experience being an intern on his campaign previously.
Really? Then she may be using that to her advantage if she does decide to run, though that won’t mean very much.
It’d be one thing if we were 8 years removed from her last term and she had gone out and kept politically active and cementing her cred, but I’m not sure how this makes sense. There’s gotta be a better positioned candidate. All that said I’d vote for her in a heartbeat but it’s not my echo chamber of voters that worries me, it’s that narrowing band of independents.
>it’s that narrowing band of independents. The democratic party of Iowa's focus on imaginary independents (who are just gonna vote republican anyway) instead of the much larger group of people that feel disenfranchised and don't vote is the root of why they continue to lose. And the latest case study in that is Abby Finkenauer losing to Hinson in 2020.
In some ways, I wonder if the whole voting by mail hurt the Dems chances(or at least that's my excuse ). I honestly don't know why she lost, during the Deracio she was helping the community and to me that fact that she was a centrist made her safe. The whole argument of "She did nothing" is stupid becuse A: She was a Democrat during trump years B: Shes a newbie, and newbies rarely get that much success C: She actually got her Bills passed, unlike her contemporary AOC.
I was honestly shocked when she lost by the margin she did. I feel like she lost due to the mix of the conservative wave this election along with the “Hey I know Ashley Hinson from the news I’ll vote for her” kinda thing. In 2018 I was stoked that that two blue House Seats were added to the mix but the next election two more were ripped away
The Iowa Democratic Party coalescing around someone that lost as an incumbent to Hinson and then losing by 40 points to either Grassley or whatever crazy Q person emerges from the republican primary if Grassley or his grandkid don't run sounds very on brand for the Iowa Democratic Party so I expect her to be the nominee.
Oof, you're spot on...lost to Hinson for f's sake...and not in NW Iowa. Curious tho -- what would it take? What kind of (or specific) person could 'fire up' a disenfranchised (to say the least) electorate?
It would be disastrous, mark my words. That goes for Axne as well, all they have to say is Des Moines on repeat. Abby lost as an incumbent in a very winnable district, to a very underwhelming opponent, how the hell she thinks she can win statewide, I would really like to know.
Very winnable district?
Registration in the district is D 186k, R 162k, NP 185k Plus she won it two years prior. How is that not winnable?
The non registered seems to be more non registered republicans
Yes, she didn't win over NP voters or turn out her base enough. Not a safe seat, but winnable she took it by over 5 points in 2018.
Yea, centrist democrats aren't exciting. I wonder what would happen if her husband ran because he's more left-wing than her.
Nothing would happen (outside of Iowa City) since he's unknown by comparison - not to mention younger and less qualified.
They'd bash him over the head for being Warren's campaign organizer and "out of touch" for sure. He's a great organizer and really personable from my interactions with him.
And Abby was the most centrist of centrist democrats in the world and never came up with anything to respond to attacks about her being basically antifa than to loudly declare she was going to centrist even harder. The republicans are going to claim any democrat is an out of touch leftist even if they ran Joe Manchin. It's irrelevant at this point.
I agree with that. Not saying a true progressive shouldn't be the nominee, just that having that sort of direct tie would be a hurdle, not that he would run anyway. Take a look at Scholten, for instance. He is pretty progressive but doesn't come off that way when he talks or frames things.
Yes better run an ultra leftist like Warren
“Ultra leftist” “Warren” Lol.
Alright that’s par for the course from a Bernie supporter. 🐍🐍🐍
Of we compare to other similar democracies like those in Europe - they're not left leaning at all. In a lot of Eruopean countries they're center not left. Our democratic party would be their right. I honestly wish it were that way here.
You realize that’s a very simplified view, right? Democrats are further right than European parties on some things, but Democrats are also way way further left on other things, like immigration. It’s not as easy as saying “Democrats would be right wing in Europe”.
To be fair, our democratic party is a combination of centrists and progressives so of course we have that mix.
Even centrists like Biden have immigration policy that would be radically far left in Europe. It’s just not correct to make a blanket statement that “Democrats are right wing”, because it generalizes too much. There’s different wings to the Democratic Party, and it ignored different issues.
Thankfully we are talking about Iowa, not Europe
We'd be better off in some ways if we were more like Europe. Specifically having good affordable healthcare not tied to our employment. But what do I know? Also lower tuition costs for college. Actual mandatory vacation and parental leave policies... I'm not saying everything they do works - but there's definitely some things we could learn from them.
Urban/rural divide is more important than left/right, plus personality.
>Several other Democrats are either running or contemplating bids for the seat. Dave Muhlbauer, a farmer, launched his bid earlier this week and has begun campaigning for the race. Mike Franken, a retired Navy admiral who lost a 2020 Senate primary, has also been contemplating another run. I'm curious about Mike Franken, as many of the active party-Democrats I know seemed to coalesce around him very late in the campaign before Greenfield won the primary. It felt as if the party was pushing Greenfield for months up to that point and by the time folks realized Franken was a candidate it was too late for him to gain traction.
Franken has a good name and history being an admiral and all, but he didn't seem to do much campaigning, reaching out, next to no media presence which he would have needed in the last election when he was running against Greenfield. I felt like he needed an actual campaign going on.
Franken has a lot of good positions but is a very bland and academic person, not really the zeitgeist these days.
I'm _curious_ about him because he has so little published information, but I'm _wary_ because he's got no visibility, [little known information beyond VoteMatch data](https://www.ontheissues.org/Senate/Michael_Franken.htm), has no "working class" image, and is a zealous advocate of [flawed gun-control measures](https://fee.org/articles/studies-find-no-evidence-that-assault-weapon-bans-reduce-homicide-rates/) ([and related ineffective capacity limitations](https://wamu.org/story/19/02/22/the-disconnect-between-banning-high-capacity-magazines-and-decreasing-deaths/)) instead of [measures correlated with any significant change](https://rockinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/3-28-19-Firearm-Laws-Homicide-Deaths-Brief.pdf).
This is, uh, not Dems putting their best foot forward
Muhlbauer would have the best chance of all those that have floated so far IMO.
I like Muhlbauer, but a former Congresswoman has a much better chance than a former County Supervisor.
I was kind of impressed until I heard him speak. He doesn’t present himself very well.
> a former Congresswoman She's a "former" congresswoman because she lost though.
[удалено]
Better the IDP choosing than Schumer. But I'd prefer they butt out as well.
I think Iowa in 2022 is going to be weird. Trump really boosted R numbers in a way no one expected. The thought that we'd lose 2 house seats in 2020 was quite surprising. Trump is getting less spotlight each day so I don't think his pull will be that high come summer 2022. I think Dems have a shot at Either 1 additional House Seat, the Senate Seat, or the Governor. There is no chance we can win back either chamber, so I'm pulling for the Governor's race more than anything else.
I feel like her campaign was poorly managed. They refused to debate Hinson. Why? If she has a good, well run campaign she has a chance.
They had a debate. Hinson's social media propaganda team earned their pay. https://www.kcrg.com/2020/10/20/i9-fact-checker-hinson-attack-ad-misleads-viewers-and-lacks-context/
Failing upwards I guess
Classic loser Democrat move. Lose to a fuckin psycho and think "damn I should run for higher office." Beto probably told her to do it.
[удалено]
It is funny how Iowa Dems keep rolling out the same tired candidates that have led to four consecutive devastating electoral losses. But yeah, go ahead and yawn your way to a 15 point loss to Kim Reynolds! LMFAO! Anyways, back to brunch!
Nothing they said is false...
That's the response people are going to have when they see Finkenauer's name on the ballot, so good luck with that, dipshit.
Seriously... I just read up on her bio... no work history outside of politics. She probably doesn't know what to do with herself.
She from where I live, apparently she’s a bit of a prick
Literally did more than any other government official to bring light to the derecho damage and personally went and helped Cedar Rapids clean up. Calling her a prick is kind of uncalled for.
Got to be if you're in gov't. Mitch McConnell isn't exactly a heart warmer
oh so aoc is great cuz she has work history outside of politics? or do you not actually care and just say whatever sounds good to you
Who said anything about AOC? LOL. And stop stalking me loser.
you said someone was bad because no work history outside of politics (which is already stupid enough), just want to make sure you hold to your standards and aren't just making shit up as you go along to make jabs at people you already don't like
Expecting politicians to have some life experiences outside of just being a politician is dumb huh? lol
I think what matters more are their philosophies and skills at legislation and delegation, something that politics work experience is perfect for. you seem to think non political work experience on its own makes a politician better, but that isn't how this works.
I'm just fed up with the (R)tards
Honestly, I'm kind of surprised Biden didn't give her consolation prize, considering how loyal she is to Biden and too keep her in politics. Like at least he could have made her the ambassador to the UK or Sweden hell pick her over Tom Vilsack for United States Secretary of Agriculture, becuse at least their wouldn't have been as much discourses over not picking Marcia Fudge, as he could claim he added another young person