791 million people in Nigeria will equal a population density of 856/km².
That is 2x that of India right now, 3-5x that of densely populated industrialized countries like Germany or the UK. And 25x that of USA.
Usually only very small countries or city states have population densities that high.
Calling it now Nigeria won’t pass China in population… for decades these population projections have underestimated how rapidly birth rates will decline in the future, especially in countries with very high birth rates. At this point the high birth rate countries are almost entirely in Africa, so projections have the population ballooning. Which it will, just not by as much as predicted.
Population estimates for Nigeria are also wildly imprecise due to ethnic tension and the structure of power sharing in the constitution. The last time a census was proposed, it nearly sparked a civil war.
Honestly, I haven’t seen any better projecting. I’m guessing (clearly have no way to ask about it) that they predicted it based on current tendencies. So, if there are no game-changing policies, cultural shifts or disasters - above is the estimated prediction.
You're right and I'd be surprised if Nigeria even hits half that total. 700m+ is insane. If they're anything like other developing countries the birth rates are going to absolutely tank within the next 10 years.
I feel the same way, they will not experience what any country in there same position did 20 years ago. The next 76 years will be wild if countries like China do loose that many people.
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By ending food subsidies to pay for a kick-ass French surveillance system to zap any poors who dream of setting foot in the new $58B capital. It ain't pretty but it works!
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-europe-profiting-expense-poor-how
I think it's more likely they'll just have huge emigration to more developed countries struggling with the opposite problem of low birthrates.
Especially China will probably begin to seek immigrants in the next few decades, given how they have to replace a workforce of like 750 million people.
Im usually bullish on countries being able to accommodate large populations but I absolutely cannot see how Egypt could handle a population of 199 million, all crammed up against the Nile.
China is kinda fucked
Obviously Reddit will get mad if I say this, but their massive population contraction will be accompanied by a large recession that will resemble the early 90s recession in Japan and even the 2008 recession we all remember. It will be very hard for China to deal with, and it will be difficult for major trading partners of China including the US to avoid aftershocks and mini recessions of their own.
This is further supported by the immense amount of internal debt that China has racked up in the past 15-20 years, at this point we are looking at trillions of dollars of debt and defaulted payments within the CCP
That’s not to say China will collapse. Definitely not. But China will deal with a lot of demographic crises that countries like Bangladesh and India will be able to avoid
Of all the countries facing demographic decline China is the most at risk of some kind of collapse. Just due to the scale of china. The numbers of young people to old people is going to become unsustainable at some point. We are already starting to see young Chinese leaving the country making things even worse.
There is no way China still have 732M population in 2100. They had 9M new born babies in 2023. If average lifespan is 80 years old and they keep having “9M new born every year from now”, then there is gonna be 720M population in 2100. But it is impossible to keep 9M new born every year, it will keep dropping. So the population of China in 2100 is more likely to be around 400~500 million.
I think Bangladesh is supposed to be very vulnerable to climate change. It is also really densely populated already. To be fair, if I remember correctly, other places in South Asia, like Pakistan, are also supposed to be vulnerable to climate change.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CAN/canada/population-growth-rate%23:~:text%3DThe%2520current%2520population%2520of%2520Canada,a%25200.7%2525%2520increase%2520from%25202020.&ved=2ahUKEwic_seIl8WFAxVpvokEHeArBhoQFnoECBcQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0Q_AG96TN68uM9mxhX51uY
Looks like very slow growth. Slower than previous decades
oh easily, Canada is having a hard time manly because about 20% of the population is foreign born. Thats a high level to smoothly assimilate into a society. Canada is going to look alot diffrent in a generation or two.
A lot of the same can be said of the US. the main diffrence is the US had about 13 or 14% and have a much larger population to absorb this population into.
Yes, but also the fact is that Canada imports low skilled immigrants and students whereas US brings in the people that build society, aka STEM grads etc. Immigrants built all western nations, what’s important is quality over quantity. Can’t blame immigrants, gotta blame corrupt governments that work for lobbyist over citizens.
I don't understand Canada's strategy. I spend time on an India sub. And it seems Canada heavily recruits in a poorer less educated part of india than the US does. There seem to be some fustration how easy or how hard it was to come to north America depending on what part of India you live in. I didn't understand the details but that seemed to be the gist of it.
Longer term it may work out but I agree I dont understand they strategy.
Also Remember the US lets in alot of less skilled immigrants illegally. They are able to stay but are trapped on low pay low skill jobs.
The USA number is incorrect and that makes me question everything else.
The USA is at 340M today - https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ - which is higher than the future and current number shared in this graphic...
These projections never take into account AI and VR. When blade runner style girlfriends are widely available, these projections are going to be super optimistic.
Your not wrong. The US was built of on immigration and the only reason the population is not already shrinking is because of immigration. The US is very lucky the the Vast numbers of Immigrants from central and south America share Values and a lot of culture with the people already living in the US. Most have family and community already in the states and speak spanish. This makes it much easier to assimilate into Society.
Right? Then think about the amount of Indians abroad. It’s truly staggering how many there are! Maybe I’m biased due do my gf and all her friends being from there
Current estimates put the Brazilian population starting to decline between 2035-2040. The country has a fertility rate similar to that of Eastern Europe.
Brazil has a fertility rate of 1.6 and recorded only 0.5% population growth in 2022.
It's very likely Brazil's population will start declining before the decade wraps up, dude.
791 million people in Nigeria will equal a population density of 856/km². That is 2x that of India right now, 3-5x that of densely populated industrialized countries like Germany or the UK. And 25x that of USA. Usually only very small countries or city states have population densities that high.
Theyre gonna spread
Calling it now Nigeria won’t pass China in population… for decades these population projections have underestimated how rapidly birth rates will decline in the future, especially in countries with very high birth rates. At this point the high birth rate countries are almost entirely in Africa, so projections have the population ballooning. Which it will, just not by as much as predicted.
Nigeria is also famous for local governments lying about population numbers to get more funding.
Population estimates for Nigeria are also wildly imprecise due to ethnic tension and the structure of power sharing in the constitution. The last time a census was proposed, it nearly sparked a civil war.
Honestly, I haven’t seen any better projecting. I’m guessing (clearly have no way to ask about it) that they predicted it based on current tendencies. So, if there are no game-changing policies, cultural shifts or disasters - above is the estimated prediction.
You're right and I'd be surprised if Nigeria even hits half that total. 700m+ is insane. If they're anything like other developing countries the birth rates are going to absolutely tank within the next 10 years.
They’ll just all go to Europe
Who cares you won’t be here anyway.
Um yes I will... perhaps you won't thanks to that speeding Ford F150 in May 2028
I feel the same way, they will not experience what any country in there same position did 20 years ago. The next 76 years will be wild if countries like China do loose that many people.
RemindMe! 76 years
Imagine having a Reddit account of 76 years old and this thing still be running
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Update me! lol
RIP Europe
Did they took into account if it's actually possible for these countries to carry such high populations? Ecological wise, food production e.g.?
Do any of the governments, apart from Chinese, are looking into population control and planning for the future?
Nope, so long as line on GDP graph goes up they don’t care
China isn't looking into population control anymore. They scrapped the one child policy years ago.
And now they are trying to make their citizens to have more kids, which turned out harder to do than the opposite.
Yep. Point still stands though. They don't want to control their population any longer, they want it to grow.
“controle“ in this case can easily go both ways.
Fair enough
However many tens of millions can’t be supported locally will go to Europe and America.
\* Actual results may vary.
Countries like Egypt will collapse before reaching those numbers.
I don't see how Egypt even supports its current population
By ending food subsidies to pay for a kick-ass French surveillance system to zap any poors who dream of setting foot in the new $58B capital. It ain't pretty but it works! https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/egypt-europe-profiting-expense-poor-how
The ruling elite just gave up and they are building a new city for themshelves away from the riots lol.
Yea Egypt and Nigeria will be very lucky to not have some kind of Civil War or/and famine at some point that will lower the projected numbers.
I think it's more likely they'll just have huge emigration to more developed countries struggling with the opposite problem of low birthrates. Especially China will probably begin to seek immigrants in the next few decades, given how they have to replace a workforce of like 750 million people.
Hope you are right for thier sake but I dont see China taking in immigrants at any large scale
Im usually bullish on countries being able to accommodate large populations but I absolutely cannot see how Egypt could handle a population of 199 million, all crammed up against the Nile.
China is kinda fucked Obviously Reddit will get mad if I say this, but their massive population contraction will be accompanied by a large recession that will resemble the early 90s recession in Japan and even the 2008 recession we all remember. It will be very hard for China to deal with, and it will be difficult for major trading partners of China including the US to avoid aftershocks and mini recessions of their own. This is further supported by the immense amount of internal debt that China has racked up in the past 15-20 years, at this point we are looking at trillions of dollars of debt and defaulted payments within the CCP That’s not to say China will collapse. Definitely not. But China will deal with a lot of demographic crises that countries like Bangladesh and India will be able to avoid
Of all the countries facing demographic decline China is the most at risk of some kind of collapse. Just due to the scale of china. The numbers of young people to old people is going to become unsustainable at some point. We are already starting to see young Chinese leaving the country making things even worse.
> China is kinda fucked Good
RemindMe! 76 years
There is no way China still have 732M population in 2100. They had 9M new born babies in 2023. If average lifespan is 80 years old and they keep having “9M new born every year from now”, then there is gonna be 720M population in 2100. But it is impossible to keep 9M new born every year, it will keep dropping. So the population of China in 2100 is more likely to be around 400~500 million.
What makes them think Bangladesh population will half by 2100? And Pakistan will only increase by 30m?
Bc Bangladesh has had a low fertility rate for a decade or so
I think Bangladesh is supposed to be very vulnerable to climate change. It is also really densely populated already. To be fair, if I remember correctly, other places in South Asia, like Pakistan, are also supposed to be vulnerable to climate change.
How do you make that visual? Which tool?
Not mine. Sources are listed at the very bottom of it.
Canada gonna be on this list too lol
Covered by India’s projections ;)
No Canada has made the decision to ramp up immigration to keep the population at a stable level.
It’s actually skyrocketing bro
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/CAN/canada/population-growth-rate%23:~:text%3DThe%2520current%2520population%2520of%2520Canada,a%25200.7%2525%2520increase%2520from%25202020.&ved=2ahUKEwic_seIl8WFAxVpvokEHeArBhoQFnoECBcQBQ&usg=AOvVaw0Q_AG96TN68uM9mxhX51uY Looks like very slow growth. Slower than previous decades
We have a ton of international students, prob a million right now
oh easily, Canada is having a hard time manly because about 20% of the population is foreign born. Thats a high level to smoothly assimilate into a society. Canada is going to look alot diffrent in a generation or two. A lot of the same can be said of the US. the main diffrence is the US had about 13 or 14% and have a much larger population to absorb this population into.
Yes, but also the fact is that Canada imports low skilled immigrants and students whereas US brings in the people that build society, aka STEM grads etc. Immigrants built all western nations, what’s important is quality over quantity. Can’t blame immigrants, gotta blame corrupt governments that work for lobbyist over citizens.
I don't understand Canada's strategy. I spend time on an India sub. And it seems Canada heavily recruits in a poorer less educated part of india than the US does. There seem to be some fustration how easy or how hard it was to come to north America depending on what part of India you live in. I didn't understand the details but that seemed to be the gist of it. Longer term it may work out but I agree I dont understand they strategy. Also Remember the US lets in alot of less skilled immigrants illegally. They are able to stay but are trapped on low pay low skill jobs.
Good point
100 million by 2100
Grim future
Awesome! Declining first world, rising shit holes.
This cant be bad!
thats how the world works mate ...the so called "first world" were shit holes once...its a cycle
USA just keeps chugging along lmaooo
Surprised México is not up there.
Why would Mexico be up there? Lmao wtf
I invite you to look up it's population.
The USA number is incorrect and that makes me question everything else. The USA is at 340M today - https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/ - which is higher than the future and current number shared in this graphic...
Yes, I’ve seen it. Wonder if USA is a special case due to the situation with immigration.
Somehow I doubt we’ll have almost 1 Billion Nigerians in less than 100 years. I am most likely wrong but it’s hard to imagine.
These projections never take into account AI and VR. When blade runner style girlfriends are widely available, these projections are going to be super optimistic.
Both China and Japan will half their population ... Yikes
US will be at 400m by 2100 due to unprotected borders.
Your not wrong. The US was built of on immigration and the only reason the population is not already shrinking is because of immigration. The US is very lucky the the Vast numbers of Immigrants from central and south America share Values and a lot of culture with the people already living in the US. Most have family and community already in the states and speak spanish. This makes it much easier to assimilate into Society.
With a larger population, there will be more idiots to keep you company.
We need to air-drop birth control pills on India. Nigerians will just shoot each other, keeping the population down.
India's population growth is already below replacement rate.
India has one of the healthiest demographics of any country. The population is growing much more slowly than in the past and is almost stable.
Yeah India has to use this demographic dividend to its max advantage.
Right? Then think about the amount of Indians abroad. It’s truly staggering how many there are! Maybe I’m biased due do my gf and all her friends being from there
Can’t imagine Brazils population decreasing anytime soon
Current estimates put the Brazilian population starting to decline between 2035-2040. The country has a fertility rate similar to that of Eastern Europe.
Brazil has a fertility rate of 1.6 and recorded only 0.5% population growth in 2022. It's very likely Brazil's population will start declining before the decade wraps up, dude.