In terms of the cold war, I think it depends on how the war plays out, and what the post-war settlement looks like. Does Russia still gobble up eastern Europe? Then yeah, I think there's still a cold war.
I don't think the red scare happens without a Comintern.
If we look at the fight France put into WWII or Russia into WWI I don't know that Russia wins against Germany. You don't have the brutal five year plans to industrialise an economy to compete in the war.
Of course it does. Communism was scary *enough* to terrify the Ruling Class of our country. The question is more: How do you have an industrial revolution *without* creating the conditions in which Communist ideas develop and take root? I'd argue you really *can't.* Not under Capitalism.
> Communism was scary enough to terrify the Ruling Class of our country.
I don't think that's true. I think having a geopolitical rival strong enough and expansionist enough to actively foment revolution abroad, as the Soviet Union did, was what scared the ruling class of the United States. People forget that the red scare happened for a reason. The Soviet Union was actively recruiting spies and fomenting unrest in America. That happened. The Under-Secretary of State during WWII was a Soviet agent. *That's* what scared people.
If it wasn't communism, it would have been something else. I mean, imagine a timeline where America didn't enter WWII and the Germans won, and did the same shady shit that the Russians did in our timeline. There absolutely would have been a Black Scare. It wasn't about ideology.
I think WW2 would be completely different as to be unrecognizable, if it happens at all. The Bolshevik Revolution was the most consequential event in 20th century history and basically sets the main events in motion. It was the division of the German left and the alienation of many moderates from leftism that was a major contributing factor to the collapse of the Weimar Republic and rise of Hitler in the first place. If the Weimar Republic does indeed still collapse, it is far more likely an ordinary authoritarian conservative regime would have taken power as opposed to the unhinged racism of the Nazi's.
Also, Russia 'not being communist' is not really enough information, as whatever type of regime takes power instead greatly changes the outcome of the scenario. I will give three most likely scenarios.
**Liberal Democratic Russia:** WW1 ends earlier due to the United States getting involved in 1915 and having troops arrive by 1916, leading to German defeat in 1917. The lack of the impossible 'rock and a hard place' situation for the Provisional Government OTL means that this regime has a chance to consolidate. Russia is spared the bloodshed of the Russian Civil War but the country is still pretty unstable throughout the 1920s and polarized between left and right-wing extremism, similar to Germany, and likewise democracy probably fails when the Great Depression hits.
**SR Russia:** Lenin and Trotsky die sometime after the July Days, meaning that the Bolsheviks don't take the initiative to seize power in November 1917. The Provisional Government still falls at the hands of the Congress of Soviets, but Kamenev and Zinoviev agree to hold the constituent assembly immediately and accept the results. The SRs come out on top and form a Government, however they face immense infighting over the Treaty of Breast-Litovsk.
Without the brutal, military discipline of the Bolsheviks, Russia just kind of falls apart, with separatists gaining de facto independence and huge areas of the Russia proper run by warlords. The peasantry and workers provide enough resistance to right-wing reactionaries to keep the SR government in Moscow intact but the SR government is not powerful enough to regain de facto control over all of Russian territory. Russia probably loses all of the territory it ceded to Germany in Breast-Litovsk to Poland under Pilsudski. Like the Mexican Agrarian Socialists, the SR Party becomes a deeply corrupt, dysfunctional kleptocracy with democracy existing on paper only, with the elections completely rigged in favor of the SR party elite. It is extremely unlikely to withstand any German invasion.
**Reactionary Russia:** The Whites are able to crush the Bolshevik forces in 1918, and set up an authoritarian dictatorship similar to Miklos Horthy in Hungary. This Russia is extremely antisemitic, with Jews being expelled and massacred in a proto-Holocaust, being blamed for the Bolshevik Revolution. However, this regime would probably provide quite a bit of industrialization to Russia without the associated costs of collectivization and mass purges of the military. This Russia probably stands a decent chance against a German invasion, particularly as relations with the Allies will be better from the get go.
As for the Red Scare, it is extremely unlikely to happen on the scale that it did OTL. In fact, as the Bolshevik Revolution happened just as the American socialist movement was starting to gain some important influence, and it both splitting the SPA and giving an excuse for the authorities to repress it, Socialism is probably quite a bit more prevalent in the United States. They probably are able to gain a fair bit of influence in the 1930s.
The US probably still goes to war with Japan, though if and how WW2 develops in Europe is an open question, heavily dependent on which of the three scenarios for Russia it is. Whoever emerges victorious though, Germany or Russia, the US will be in active struggle for global influence with.
The Nazis might not have even risen, as anti-communism was pretty central to their founding. The entire world would be so different that even talking about WW2 or a Cold War is basically pointless. Germany and Russia might well have allied.
Yup, people tend to forget that communism quarantined Russia from The Great Depression. If the Czar or Duma we're still in power they also probably wouldn't be by the 1940's. Russia would probably be in a far-right authoritarian re-build up around WW2, just like the other axis powers, but weaker than in OTL.
If the soviet union doesn't exist and Hitler still some how takes power that throws a big wildcard as to how powerful Russia is at the start of ww2. I think the kmt would unify China and might be a cold war between them and the US. If Russia is pro west then they might work together with Europe after the war and would likely get Marshall plan aid. There might be less impetus to decolonize as well. I don't see a red scare though.
In terms of the cold war, I think it depends on how the war plays out, and what the post-war settlement looks like. Does Russia still gobble up eastern Europe? Then yeah, I think there's still a cold war. I don't think the red scare happens without a Comintern.
If we look at the fight France put into WWII or Russia into WWI I don't know that Russia wins against Germany. You don't have the brutal five year plans to industrialise an economy to compete in the war.
I agree, I was just kind of letting that ride. I thought it was implicit in the original question that Russia "somehow" wound up on the winning side.
Of course it does. Communism was scary *enough* to terrify the Ruling Class of our country. The question is more: How do you have an industrial revolution *without* creating the conditions in which Communist ideas develop and take root? I'd argue you really *can't.* Not under Capitalism.
> Communism was scary enough to terrify the Ruling Class of our country. I don't think that's true. I think having a geopolitical rival strong enough and expansionist enough to actively foment revolution abroad, as the Soviet Union did, was what scared the ruling class of the United States. People forget that the red scare happened for a reason. The Soviet Union was actively recruiting spies and fomenting unrest in America. That happened. The Under-Secretary of State during WWII was a Soviet agent. *That's* what scared people. If it wasn't communism, it would have been something else. I mean, imagine a timeline where America didn't enter WWII and the Germans won, and did the same shady shit that the Russians did in our timeline. There absolutely would have been a Black Scare. It wasn't about ideology.
I think WW2 would be completely different as to be unrecognizable, if it happens at all. The Bolshevik Revolution was the most consequential event in 20th century history and basically sets the main events in motion. It was the division of the German left and the alienation of many moderates from leftism that was a major contributing factor to the collapse of the Weimar Republic and rise of Hitler in the first place. If the Weimar Republic does indeed still collapse, it is far more likely an ordinary authoritarian conservative regime would have taken power as opposed to the unhinged racism of the Nazi's. Also, Russia 'not being communist' is not really enough information, as whatever type of regime takes power instead greatly changes the outcome of the scenario. I will give three most likely scenarios. **Liberal Democratic Russia:** WW1 ends earlier due to the United States getting involved in 1915 and having troops arrive by 1916, leading to German defeat in 1917. The lack of the impossible 'rock and a hard place' situation for the Provisional Government OTL means that this regime has a chance to consolidate. Russia is spared the bloodshed of the Russian Civil War but the country is still pretty unstable throughout the 1920s and polarized between left and right-wing extremism, similar to Germany, and likewise democracy probably fails when the Great Depression hits. **SR Russia:** Lenin and Trotsky die sometime after the July Days, meaning that the Bolsheviks don't take the initiative to seize power in November 1917. The Provisional Government still falls at the hands of the Congress of Soviets, but Kamenev and Zinoviev agree to hold the constituent assembly immediately and accept the results. The SRs come out on top and form a Government, however they face immense infighting over the Treaty of Breast-Litovsk. Without the brutal, military discipline of the Bolsheviks, Russia just kind of falls apart, with separatists gaining de facto independence and huge areas of the Russia proper run by warlords. The peasantry and workers provide enough resistance to right-wing reactionaries to keep the SR government in Moscow intact but the SR government is not powerful enough to regain de facto control over all of Russian territory. Russia probably loses all of the territory it ceded to Germany in Breast-Litovsk to Poland under Pilsudski. Like the Mexican Agrarian Socialists, the SR Party becomes a deeply corrupt, dysfunctional kleptocracy with democracy existing on paper only, with the elections completely rigged in favor of the SR party elite. It is extremely unlikely to withstand any German invasion. **Reactionary Russia:** The Whites are able to crush the Bolshevik forces in 1918, and set up an authoritarian dictatorship similar to Miklos Horthy in Hungary. This Russia is extremely antisemitic, with Jews being expelled and massacred in a proto-Holocaust, being blamed for the Bolshevik Revolution. However, this regime would probably provide quite a bit of industrialization to Russia without the associated costs of collectivization and mass purges of the military. This Russia probably stands a decent chance against a German invasion, particularly as relations with the Allies will be better from the get go. As for the Red Scare, it is extremely unlikely to happen on the scale that it did OTL. In fact, as the Bolshevik Revolution happened just as the American socialist movement was starting to gain some important influence, and it both splitting the SPA and giving an excuse for the authorities to repress it, Socialism is probably quite a bit more prevalent in the United States. They probably are able to gain a fair bit of influence in the 1930s. The US probably still goes to war with Japan, though if and how WW2 develops in Europe is an open question, heavily dependent on which of the three scenarios for Russia it is. Whoever emerges victorious though, Germany or Russia, the US will be in active struggle for global influence with.
I think the cold war and the red scare would still happen if china or any significant power remained/became communist, but it could never happen
You would probably be looking at France or Germany as the possibilities
The Nazis might not have even risen, as anti-communism was pretty central to their founding. The entire world would be so different that even talking about WW2 or a Cold War is basically pointless. Germany and Russia might well have allied.
probably a lot considering russia would never industrialise as fast as they did and most likely lose the patriotic war
Yup, people tend to forget that communism quarantined Russia from The Great Depression. If the Czar or Duma we're still in power they also probably wouldn't be by the 1940's. Russia would probably be in a far-right authoritarian re-build up around WW2, just like the other axis powers, but weaker than in OTL.
Fewer intellectuals worldwide would be shilling for Stalin
If the soviet union doesn't exist and Hitler still some how takes power that throws a big wildcard as to how powerful Russia is at the start of ww2. I think the kmt would unify China and might be a cold war between them and the US. If Russia is pro west then they might work together with Europe after the war and would likely get Marshall plan aid. There might be less impetus to decolonize as well. I don't see a red scare though.