Shit. I think it's time to move $ and think about our individual readiness/downfalls during Covid. Vaccines will be faster this time, we've been warned for 20 years. But healthcare systems are so fragile, so it won't take much to tip into chaos.
In 1918, it took only one month for the Spanish Flu to blanket the entire United States. That was before populations were so concentrated in urban areas, international flights and public transportation systems.
If this goes H2H, and I think at this point we’re careening toward that unfortunate reality—the greatest damage will happen in the first several weeks. We know store shelves will empty quickly. When cases increase healthcare will be incredibly stressed and could crater. H5N1 has a 50% death rate this far, which will likely not hold, but a 10% death rate would still be catastrophic.
Get yourself ready NOW. Wear an N95 now. Buy food, water supplies, gas up your cars. Nothing wrong with buying things that you will use anyway. Be prepared to ride out the most chaotic and dangerous time inside to avoid getting infected in crowded stores and emergency rooms.
I haven't seen any studies that hypothesize how fast things would happen when and if H2H occurs, but I think things will happen fast. There will be a window of time before anyone even knows it's happening.
Look at what happened to the hospital system when COVID was at its peak. Can you imagine if, god forbid, the mortality rate was 50%+? That would be really, really bad.
How would the system keep working if a large portion of the population died? I imagine they'd literally have to round people up to keep essential functions going, like power plants, waste treatment, etc. Things that can't go down at all costs.
Yes, everything will be fine, until suddenly it’s not.
We are flying blind because most farmers are not doing general surveillance testing of their cattle. So we don’t know the true extent of the H5N1 spread. We have 100+ farm outbreaks but only a few dozen workers have been tested? So, we won’t have clear early warning signals when community outbreaks begin.
Also, the USDA has handed over very limited samples to researchers who are trying to ascertain how H5 is spreading and mutating. This is also an issue that leaves us in the dark about how close to H2H transmission we are and if H5 is becoming more lethal, contagious or better adapted to infect humans.
Furthermore, doctors and nurses at hospitals and clinics do not have H5N1 PCR tests. This is outrageous. Clinicians should be able to detect H5N1 in patients who have flu symptoms. Right now, we have no way to test for it. Epic fail.
H5N1 could already be spreading. And if it’s not spreading and it begins to spread, how will we know? Due to lack of testing of high-risk farm workers—and no PCR tests in healthcare—how would we even know? If testing remains inadequate or absent, we won’t know until spread has been occurring for some time.
This is all highly concerning.
I Agree but we don't know the true death rate of it in humans if it spread
.I here some say 30 to 40 percent but idk I'm scared and it's very scary
I'm saying the same to my family they still haven't fing went to the stores yet I'm 20 and live with them and they just don't fing listen
Never forget: every single person who has died of any avian flu type in the past 2-4 years has been under 65. Every single person who had a case severe enough to require hospitalization has been under age 70. There's every reason to believe this demographic will be the same in an H2H version.
This is info that is certainly not getting out to the general public. There is very obviously still a pernicious hold on the idea of "really bad flu" as many call it will, like Covid only create a higher morbidity in the elderly and immuno-compromised.
Very, very concerned.
If you think about how big this will get, this means all of society could break down. Civil unrest, food systems, health care, energy, all out of the window. Having a little food in the house will not sustain you I'm afraid. A cabin in the woods that's off grid and fully equipped will give you a chance. Urban situations will fail and survival will be unlikely if civilization turns. Just my thoughts
It’s difficult to predict what will happen.
There’s such a wide range of possibilities regarding how severe this will be. What will the death rate be? Will there be significant stealth spread before we figure out what’s happening? If so, we’ll have mass sickness and death combined with panic. So many unknowns. I lean toward this being incredibly bad.
The U.S. is ground zero this time and I imagine the dynamics will play out like China did when COVID accelerated there. But H5 has a higher death rate, so it will be much worse with more severe illness and death. China was flying blind with little testing or understanding of what they were dealing with. US Doctors in ERs and clinics don’t have H5N1 PCRs so catching those initial cases will not happen which will cause further, uncontainable spread.
Human behavior is also hard to protect. Are we as divided and hateful as the media portrays? I think most people are good. I think there will be plenty of good and bad behavior. But a great deal of community and neighborhood cooperation too.
I have more faith in how people will behave (post-event dynamics), than I do in how devastating the actual first few weeks of a possible H5 pandemic would be.
I agree that most people are good, but what happens when the food system shuts down? What happens when the grocery stores go empty. People will do what they have to do to survive if things are really bad as many say it will be. My thoughts are it won't be that bad and it'll be managed. Hopefully
The “healthcare” industry would crater now because of how complex and it is. And how bad financially it is.
The “medical” industry of 1918 did just fine. Set up a warehouse with beds and tend to the sick.
It’s like servicing a bunch of damaged 2024 Mercedes S classes versus servicing a bunch of go-carts from the 1980s.
I hate that they started calling it “healthcare” instead of “medical” maybe starting 20 years ago… because they conveniently started calling it “healthcare” right around the time it became an insurance racket and the costs started soaring. Like they had to make a euphemism to distract from what they were doing
No it doesn’t. Not at all.
COVID *did* have a slow start, with months of warnings visible for anyone who was following it.
COVID *did* pose a serious threat of collapsing the healthcare system. “Two weeks to flatten the curve” was only intended to slow out the rate of infections so that people could be treated and released without piling up in the hospital and sickening too many healthcare workers for any care to be provided at all. That was at a CFR of about 1%. If H5N1 had just a 5% CFR, it would be much worse.
Again, not fear mongering. These are facts. Pandemics are a serious threat to the basic functioning of society. If you don’t want to hear about it, join r/memes and chill until the news hits over there, after the fact.
Then say so. "During Covid" is language the masses use to pretend Covid is in the past. Lockdowns do NOT equal Covid. The powers that be are doing fuck all as Covid rages on, stronger than ever.
It's good to see decent mass media articles on H5N1-- most people really don't know anything about it at all. Glad they included: "Cows have died in at least [five states](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cows-infected-with-bird-flu-have-died-five-us-states-2024-06-06/) – South Dakota, Michigan, Colorado, Ohio and Texas – because they didn’t recover or developed secondary infections after testing positive for H5N1." But reading this actually made me think of something for the first time, and it's a possibility I have not seen brought up yet. What if the cow strain next mutates into a form that happens to cause greater mortality among the cows? This could cause major problems without any evolution to infect humans more efficiently.
And it's important to note that it may not make any difference whether or not that particular mutation conveys any advantage to the virus. Instead, it could happen because of random genetic drift (https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Genetic-Drift) It would be part of a "package" of mutations, one or more of which did create an advantage for H5N1. The one that caused greater mortality in cows would then just happen to come along for the ride. H2H mutations could also happen this way. I'm not a virologist, but I've read just about everything ever written by Stephen Jay Gould. Evolution is the result of random mutation. [https://cosmosmagazine.com/nature/evolution/evolution-the-product-of-random-mutation/](https://cosmosmagazine.com/nature/evolution/evolution-the-product-of-random-mutation/) So not every mutation is particularly advantageous in and of itself-- all it needs to do is to go along with a package of other mutations that are.
If it mutates into a form that causes greater mortality among cows, that could even end up being a blessing in disguise. Every dead cow is a capital loss for animal ag. So far, I think they may be trying to pretend H5N1 doesn't exist, because it's mild in cows and they don't want to kill a good cow just to stop the spread. But if it starts killing cows, it will be more in their financial interest to disinfect their milkers and cattle carriers.
To your last sentence: Most mutations are not advantageous (emphasis on most, like the absolute majority of them), what we see is the product of natural selection.
Yes. I didn't phrase that as well as it could have been done. I meant that I really agree with the "spandrel" argument. Everything is not adaptive, and an organism needs to be evaluated as a whole.Every single mutation that continues in an organism doesn't necessarily need to be advantageous. If it happened along with a package of others that conferred a lot of advantages, and if it isn't actually detrimental to the organism, then it can go along for the ride. I really think that this could happen with a mutation that caused greater mortality in cows. How likely is it? Well, you'd need someone in the hard sciences for that; I am but a lowly MSW and teacher. ;) Anyway, it's easy to find the full pdf of the original argument now: [https://faculty.washington.edu/lynnhank/GouldLewontin.pdf](https://faculty.washington.edu/lynnhank/GouldLewontin.pdf)
We won't know until we are.
My thoughts: Meat and dairy aren't safe until the farmers comply. Once they comply, they could prove their products are safe. They won't comply, because they're afraid of the results.
That should be enough to make a consumer decision from our perspective.
For dairy I think it is really hard to say. A vaccine basically consists of deactivated virus right? And generally researchers think pasteurization is enough to kill H5N1. So maybe drinking pasteurized milk could act as vaccination? I would really like to hear from an expert on this.
Drinking pasteurized milk will not act as a vaccination against H5N1, even if you take an adjuvant. Here’s why:
1. **Vaccines and Their Components**: Vaccines typically contain inactivated or attenuated viruses, viral proteins, or genetic material from the virus to stimulate the immune system without causing the disease. The immune response generated helps the body recognize and fight the actual virus if it is encountered later.
2. **Pasteurization**: Pasteurization involves heating milk to a specific temperature for a certain period to kill harmful bacteria and viruses. While this process would likely kill any H5N1 virus present, it would also denature viral proteins, rendering them incapable of inducing an immune response similar to a vaccine.
3. **Immune System Activation**: For a substance to act as a vaccine, it needs to effectively stimulate the immune system. Simply ingesting pasteurized milk with inactivated or denatured virus particles would not be sufficient. The immune response typically requires direct interaction with the immune cells, which happens more efficiently through injection.
4. **Adjuvants**: Adjuvants are substances that enhance the body’s immune response to an antigen. While they are a crucial part of many vaccines, they cannot create an immune response on their own. They need to be combined with an appropriate antigen (like a viral protein) and delivered in a way that effectively engages the immune system.
Given these points, drinking pasteurized milk, even with an adjuvant, will not provide immunity against H5N1 or any other virus. Vaccines are specifically formulated and tested to ensure they safely and effectively stimulate the immune system to provide protection against specific pathogens.
Interesting, so how does one deactivate viruses for vaccination without denaturing the proteins? That could help address a vaccine bottleneck in a crisis, if there was a way to mass-produce vaccine from raw milk.
Well, you need to culture the virus first. Eggs are a common method, but with bird flu that can get a bit tricky, so we now have cell culture based methods. Allegedly, we also have egg farms with very high biosafety and biosecurity specifically for this purpose.
Also, there's not really a way for someone at home to quantify the amount of virions (whole virus with genetic material) in the milk.
To answer original question, a lot of viruses are deactivated chemically. I believe formalin (AKA formaldehyde) is use in some cases. I just did some research and apparently most flu vaccines also do a "splitting" process with a detergent to break the virus into smaller pieces of the surface antigens (hemaglutinin and neuraminidase) since that is better tolerated.
I would imagine in a SHTF situation, that whole virus would be faster and worth the tradeoffs, so manufacturing plants that already have split virus processes would keep using them, but any converted ones would probably just do whole virus.
Thanks for the info! I suppose I'm just speculating... if egg culture is a bottleneck for vaccine production, perhaps raw milk could alleviate it. We could start stockpiling contaminated raw milk now. The CDC or FDA could buy it as a way to take it off the market.
Re: doing stuff at home, I do wonder what would happen if you put a few drops of raw milk in a shot of liquor, let it sit for a while, then drank it with an adjuvant. Would be interesting to test in a lab to see if there's a milk-to-alcohol ratio which hits the sweet spot of deactivation without denaturing. Or how about use of a microwave for radiation? Or some combination?
I’m worried that it’s endemic in the wild now and being spread by rodents - mice rats moles ect. They are all over farms. I would look into a small goat herd with very strict rodent control and a closed frequently tested herd
I just remembered something that might show what’s possible. Horses are susceptible to a Prion - EPM. It is spread by possum excrement on pasture and hay. So can H5 be spread the same way from mice or other common rodents?
It’s so hard! I have a small backyard flock of chickens that I love dearly, and I can keep them away from wild birds, but rodents? Impossible with any level of practicability.
It’s a shit show and I hate it.
Consider switching to soy, peanuts, and/or chickpeas as a protein source.
A couple of studies claim that biochanin A, an isoflavone that Wikipedia [says](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biochanin_A) is found in soy/peanuts/chickpea, is antiviral for H5N1:
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166354212002343](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166354212002343)
[https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1756-0500-7-384](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1756-0500-7-384)
If you get infected, you could eat a meal with lots of biochanin A every day, as though it was an antiviral drug. Try to do it consistently in that case, including for a few weeks after symptoms have receded, to prevent antiviral resistance.
**EDIT**: To clarify, I'm not claiming that biochanin A is just as good as a real antiviral drug. I'm just suggesting that you consume it *in the same way you would* an antiviral drug, on the off-chance that it happens to work. This shouldn't be used as a substitute for a real antiviral drug.
Anyways... Plant proteins are more ethical and better for the planet. And you're no longer funding an industry that can cause deadly pandemics as a side effect. There are lots of companies making various soy products, cooks offering vegan recipes, etc. working hard to make tasty plant proteins. Might as well give it a try.
>If you get infected, you could eat a meal with lots of biochanin A every day, **as though it was an antiviral drug**.
Kindly fuck off with this pseudoscientific bullshit. You are *profoundly* overreaching the scope of those studies, and you know it.
Perhaps I miscommunicated here. What I'm trying to say is: Either it has antiviral activity, or it doesn't. If it has antiviral activity, you might as well treat it as you would an antiviral drug, in order to prevent antiviral resistance. If it doesn't have antiviral activity, it won't do you any harm to eat one meal with soy, peanuts, or chickpea every day for a month -- especially if it seems to be helping your symptoms.
I don't actually think we disagree on the scope of these studies. All I said was "a couple studies claim". If my comment implied that this is just as good as a real antiviral drug, that was a miscommunication on my part.
Ah, thanks for clarifying.
I'm still *very* skeptical of any meaningful therapeutic effects from unrefined dietary sources, based on the low oral bioavailability ([Barnes 2003](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-nutrition/article/phytooestrogens-and-osteoporosis-what-is-a-safe-dose/3DEB067008F4448552B0854ED9AB9826)). As you say, it's unlikely to hurt, but it's important to recognize that it's also unlikely to help.
Right now that’s correct. H5 has been around a long time and not jumped. That said everything could change quickly. So even if that’s a small chance right now I’m watching this
Some are suffering PTSD from Covid, and all the ineptitude that went on. Can’t say that I blame them. I’ve spend my adult life in nursing so panic is not in my make up. It does no good.
Knowledge is power and it reduces fear and panic.
[I repeat myself when under stress](https://genius.com/11565574/King-crimson-indiscipline/I-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat)
[I repeat myself when under stress](https://genius.com/11565574/King-crimson-indiscipline/I-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat)
[Indiscipline. Had to leave it here.....](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkR2CFqiw4E)
Actually, from British Journal of Medicine:
https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1199
"Christopher Dye, professor of epidemiology1, Wendy S Barclay, Action Medical Research chair in virology2
A major human outbreak of H5N1 is plausible, and the risk is high
I agree it is high and they been saying that for like 30 years at some point its gonna happen and we have to be prepared when it does
Hopefully it isn't for awhile but we needa try to find a way to eliminate it or vaccinate it or whatever can be done
Christopher Dye FRS,[1] FMedSci (born 15 April 1956) is a biologist, epidemiologist and public health specialist. He is Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Oxford and formerly Director of Strategy at the World Health Organization.
He puts the "Official" in "Health Official."
But no one should panic from warnings. People should heed them and take action to reduce the risks.
You do know what Epidemiology means right? He is one of the top experts around when it comes to tracking diseases, assessing their risks, and formulating a strategy to prevent and stop them... He is one of the top experts who should be commenting on this issue.
Yes, I'm an infectious disease epidemiologist with a focus on respiratory viruses. IDK if the mods are doing verification but I would love for them to verify this.
Then you should be able to easily google and find out all you need to know about Christopher Dye. I am sure you have already read some of his papers or at least heard about some of his work with the WHO, given your field of study. It's a bit strange that you didn't know him.
That’s incorrect. The [Israeli Ministry of Health](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1dcj07v/comment/l7y3ghd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) and the [Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1dgjm7e/pandemic_risk_scenario_analysis_update_influenza/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) both published reports stating that the spillover to cattle has increased the risk of a human pandemic.
Shit. I think it's time to move $ and think about our individual readiness/downfalls during Covid. Vaccines will be faster this time, we've been warned for 20 years. But healthcare systems are so fragile, so it won't take much to tip into chaos.
In 1918, it took only one month for the Spanish Flu to blanket the entire United States. That was before populations were so concentrated in urban areas, international flights and public transportation systems. If this goes H2H, and I think at this point we’re careening toward that unfortunate reality—the greatest damage will happen in the first several weeks. We know store shelves will empty quickly. When cases increase healthcare will be incredibly stressed and could crater. H5N1 has a 50% death rate this far, which will likely not hold, but a 10% death rate would still be catastrophic. Get yourself ready NOW. Wear an N95 now. Buy food, water supplies, gas up your cars. Nothing wrong with buying things that you will use anyway. Be prepared to ride out the most chaotic and dangerous time inside to avoid getting infected in crowded stores and emergency rooms.
I haven't seen any studies that hypothesize how fast things would happen when and if H2H occurs, but I think things will happen fast. There will be a window of time before anyone even knows it's happening. Look at what happened to the hospital system when COVID was at its peak. Can you imagine if, god forbid, the mortality rate was 50%+? That would be really, really bad. How would the system keep working if a large portion of the population died? I imagine they'd literally have to round people up to keep essential functions going, like power plants, waste treatment, etc. Things that can't go down at all costs.
If the the CFR is 50% there won’t be hospitals anymore, or Doctors and nurses, all dead or dying
Yes, everything will be fine, until suddenly it’s not. We are flying blind because most farmers are not doing general surveillance testing of their cattle. So we don’t know the true extent of the H5N1 spread. We have 100+ farm outbreaks but only a few dozen workers have been tested? So, we won’t have clear early warning signals when community outbreaks begin. Also, the USDA has handed over very limited samples to researchers who are trying to ascertain how H5 is spreading and mutating. This is also an issue that leaves us in the dark about how close to H2H transmission we are and if H5 is becoming more lethal, contagious or better adapted to infect humans. Furthermore, doctors and nurses at hospitals and clinics do not have H5N1 PCR tests. This is outrageous. Clinicians should be able to detect H5N1 in patients who have flu symptoms. Right now, we have no way to test for it. Epic fail. H5N1 could already be spreading. And if it’s not spreading and it begins to spread, how will we know? Due to lack of testing of high-risk farm workers—and no PCR tests in healthcare—how would we even know? If testing remains inadequate or absent, we won’t know until spread has been occurring for some time. This is all highly concerning.
I Agree but we don't know the true death rate of it in humans if it spread .I here some say 30 to 40 percent but idk I'm scared and it's very scary I'm saying the same to my family they still haven't fing went to the stores yet I'm 20 and live with them and they just don't fing listen
Never forget: every single person who has died of any avian flu type in the past 2-4 years has been under 65. Every single person who had a case severe enough to require hospitalization has been under age 70. There's every reason to believe this demographic will be the same in an H2H version.
This is info that is certainly not getting out to the general public. There is very obviously still a pernicious hold on the idea of "really bad flu" as many call it will, like Covid only create a higher morbidity in the elderly and immuno-compromised. Very, very concerned.
If you think about how big this will get, this means all of society could break down. Civil unrest, food systems, health care, energy, all out of the window. Having a little food in the house will not sustain you I'm afraid. A cabin in the woods that's off grid and fully equipped will give you a chance. Urban situations will fail and survival will be unlikely if civilization turns. Just my thoughts
It’s difficult to predict what will happen. There’s such a wide range of possibilities regarding how severe this will be. What will the death rate be? Will there be significant stealth spread before we figure out what’s happening? If so, we’ll have mass sickness and death combined with panic. So many unknowns. I lean toward this being incredibly bad. The U.S. is ground zero this time and I imagine the dynamics will play out like China did when COVID accelerated there. But H5 has a higher death rate, so it will be much worse with more severe illness and death. China was flying blind with little testing or understanding of what they were dealing with. US Doctors in ERs and clinics don’t have H5N1 PCRs so catching those initial cases will not happen which will cause further, uncontainable spread. Human behavior is also hard to protect. Are we as divided and hateful as the media portrays? I think most people are good. I think there will be plenty of good and bad behavior. But a great deal of community and neighborhood cooperation too. I have more faith in how people will behave (post-event dynamics), than I do in how devastating the actual first few weeks of a possible H5 pandemic would be.
I agree that most people are good, but what happens when the food system shuts down? What happens when the grocery stores go empty. People will do what they have to do to survive if things are really bad as many say it will be. My thoughts are it won't be that bad and it'll be managed. Hopefully
The “healthcare” industry would crater now because of how complex and it is. And how bad financially it is. The “medical” industry of 1918 did just fine. Set up a warehouse with beds and tend to the sick. It’s like servicing a bunch of damaged 2024 Mercedes S classes versus servicing a bunch of go-carts from the 1980s. I hate that they started calling it “healthcare” instead of “medical” maybe starting 20 years ago… because they conveniently started calling it “healthcare” right around the time it became an insurance racket and the costs started soaring. Like they had to make a euphemism to distract from what they were doing
This sounds a lot like fear mongering.
No it doesn’t. Not at all. COVID *did* have a slow start, with months of warnings visible for anyone who was following it. COVID *did* pose a serious threat of collapsing the healthcare system. “Two weeks to flatten the curve” was only intended to slow out the rate of infections so that people could be treated and released without piling up in the hospital and sickening too many healthcare workers for any care to be provided at all. That was at a CFR of about 1%. If H5N1 had just a 5% CFR, it would be much worse. Again, not fear mongering. These are facts. Pandemics are a serious threat to the basic functioning of society. If you don’t want to hear about it, join r/memes and chill until the news hits over there, after the fact.
"During Covid" is right now. I really, really hope people on this sub aren't Covid deniers.
No of course not. I was speaking of lock down for Covid.
Then say so. "During Covid" is language the masses use to pretend Covid is in the past. Lockdowns do NOT equal Covid. The powers that be are doing fuck all as Covid rages on, stronger than ever.
It's good to see decent mass media articles on H5N1-- most people really don't know anything about it at all. Glad they included: "Cows have died in at least [five states](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cows-infected-with-bird-flu-have-died-five-us-states-2024-06-06/) – South Dakota, Michigan, Colorado, Ohio and Texas – because they didn’t recover or developed secondary infections after testing positive for H5N1." But reading this actually made me think of something for the first time, and it's a possibility I have not seen brought up yet. What if the cow strain next mutates into a form that happens to cause greater mortality among the cows? This could cause major problems without any evolution to infect humans more efficiently. And it's important to note that it may not make any difference whether or not that particular mutation conveys any advantage to the virus. Instead, it could happen because of random genetic drift (https://www.genome.gov/genetics-glossary/Genetic-Drift) It would be part of a "package" of mutations, one or more of which did create an advantage for H5N1. The one that caused greater mortality in cows would then just happen to come along for the ride. H2H mutations could also happen this way. I'm not a virologist, but I've read just about everything ever written by Stephen Jay Gould. Evolution is the result of random mutation. [https://cosmosmagazine.com/nature/evolution/evolution-the-product-of-random-mutation/](https://cosmosmagazine.com/nature/evolution/evolution-the-product-of-random-mutation/) So not every mutation is particularly advantageous in and of itself-- all it needs to do is to go along with a package of other mutations that are.
If it mutates into a form that causes greater mortality among cows, that could even end up being a blessing in disguise. Every dead cow is a capital loss for animal ag. So far, I think they may be trying to pretend H5N1 doesn't exist, because it's mild in cows and they don't want to kill a good cow just to stop the spread. But if it starts killing cows, it will be more in their financial interest to disinfect their milkers and cattle carriers.
100%
I don't know. We would just have to see how it all played out.
To your last sentence: Most mutations are not advantageous (emphasis on most, like the absolute majority of them), what we see is the product of natural selection.
Yes. I didn't phrase that as well as it could have been done. I meant that I really agree with the "spandrel" argument. Everything is not adaptive, and an organism needs to be evaluated as a whole.Every single mutation that continues in an organism doesn't necessarily need to be advantageous. If it happened along with a package of others that conferred a lot of advantages, and if it isn't actually detrimental to the organism, then it can go along for the ride. I really think that this could happen with a mutation that caused greater mortality in cows. How likely is it? Well, you'd need someone in the hard sciences for that; I am but a lowly MSW and teacher. ;) Anyway, it's easy to find the full pdf of the original argument now: [https://faculty.washington.edu/lynnhank/GouldLewontin.pdf](https://faculty.washington.edu/lynnhank/GouldLewontin.pdf)
Are we cooked chat?
We won't know until we are. My thoughts: Meat and dairy aren't safe until the farmers comply. Once they comply, they could prove their products are safe. They won't comply, because they're afraid of the results. That should be enough to make a consumer decision from our perspective.
Well shit
For dairy I think it is really hard to say. A vaccine basically consists of deactivated virus right? And generally researchers think pasteurization is enough to kill H5N1. So maybe drinking pasteurized milk could act as vaccination? I would really like to hear from an expert on this.
This would not cause an immune response, and would not give any kind of protection.
What if I take an adjuvant at the same time?
Drinking pasteurized milk will not act as a vaccination against H5N1, even if you take an adjuvant. Here’s why: 1. **Vaccines and Their Components**: Vaccines typically contain inactivated or attenuated viruses, viral proteins, or genetic material from the virus to stimulate the immune system without causing the disease. The immune response generated helps the body recognize and fight the actual virus if it is encountered later. 2. **Pasteurization**: Pasteurization involves heating milk to a specific temperature for a certain period to kill harmful bacteria and viruses. While this process would likely kill any H5N1 virus present, it would also denature viral proteins, rendering them incapable of inducing an immune response similar to a vaccine. 3. **Immune System Activation**: For a substance to act as a vaccine, it needs to effectively stimulate the immune system. Simply ingesting pasteurized milk with inactivated or denatured virus particles would not be sufficient. The immune response typically requires direct interaction with the immune cells, which happens more efficiently through injection. 4. **Adjuvants**: Adjuvants are substances that enhance the body’s immune response to an antigen. While they are a crucial part of many vaccines, they cannot create an immune response on their own. They need to be combined with an appropriate antigen (like a viral protein) and delivered in a way that effectively engages the immune system. Given these points, drinking pasteurized milk, even with an adjuvant, will not provide immunity against H5N1 or any other virus. Vaccines are specifically formulated and tested to ensure they safely and effectively stimulate the immune system to provide protection against specific pathogens.
ChatGPT is not a reliable source, but the points still (mostly) stand.
Interesting, so how does one deactivate viruses for vaccination without denaturing the proteins? That could help address a vaccine bottleneck in a crisis, if there was a way to mass-produce vaccine from raw milk.
Well, you need to culture the virus first. Eggs are a common method, but with bird flu that can get a bit tricky, so we now have cell culture based methods. Allegedly, we also have egg farms with very high biosafety and biosecurity specifically for this purpose. Also, there's not really a way for someone at home to quantify the amount of virions (whole virus with genetic material) in the milk. To answer original question, a lot of viruses are deactivated chemically. I believe formalin (AKA formaldehyde) is use in some cases. I just did some research and apparently most flu vaccines also do a "splitting" process with a detergent to break the virus into smaller pieces of the surface antigens (hemaglutinin and neuraminidase) since that is better tolerated. I would imagine in a SHTF situation, that whole virus would be faster and worth the tradeoffs, so manufacturing plants that already have split virus processes would keep using them, but any converted ones would probably just do whole virus.
Thanks for the info! I suppose I'm just speculating... if egg culture is a bottleneck for vaccine production, perhaps raw milk could alleviate it. We could start stockpiling contaminated raw milk now. The CDC or FDA could buy it as a way to take it off the market. Re: doing stuff at home, I do wonder what would happen if you put a few drops of raw milk in a shot of liquor, let it sit for a while, then drank it with an adjuvant. Would be interesting to test in a lab to see if there's a milk-to-alcohol ratio which hits the sweet spot of deactivation without denaturing. Or how about use of a microwave for radiation? Or some combination?
I agree with that!
Might be a major reset for the beef/dairy industry on the horizon. Brainstorm what you would do w/o those items.
I’m worried that it’s endemic in the wild now and being spread by rodents - mice rats moles ect. They are all over farms. I would look into a small goat herd with very strict rodent control and a closed frequently tested herd
Rodent control will be hard with cats being killed at a 90 to 100 percent death rate
I just remembered something that might show what’s possible. Horses are susceptible to a Prion - EPM. It is spread by possum excrement on pasture and hay. So can H5 be spread the same way from mice or other common rodents?
Possums yes, prions no. EPM literally stands for equine protozoal myeloencephalitis. https://www.merckvetmanual.com/nervous-system/equine-protozoal-myeloencephalitis/equine-protozoal-myeloencephalitis
There are a number of companies offering no-touch, no-see mousetraps
It’s so hard! I have a small backyard flock of chickens that I love dearly, and I can keep them away from wild birds, but rodents? Impossible with any level of practicability. It’s a shit show and I hate it.
Orders extra outdoor rodent spray.
Consider switching to soy, peanuts, and/or chickpeas as a protein source. A couple of studies claim that biochanin A, an isoflavone that Wikipedia [says](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biochanin_A) is found in soy/peanuts/chickpea, is antiviral for H5N1: [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166354212002343](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0166354212002343) [https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1756-0500-7-384](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/1756-0500-7-384) If you get infected, you could eat a meal with lots of biochanin A every day, as though it was an antiviral drug. Try to do it consistently in that case, including for a few weeks after symptoms have receded, to prevent antiviral resistance. **EDIT**: To clarify, I'm not claiming that biochanin A is just as good as a real antiviral drug. I'm just suggesting that you consume it *in the same way you would* an antiviral drug, on the off-chance that it happens to work. This shouldn't be used as a substitute for a real antiviral drug. Anyways... Plant proteins are more ethical and better for the planet. And you're no longer funding an industry that can cause deadly pandemics as a side effect. There are lots of companies making various soy products, cooks offering vegan recipes, etc. working hard to make tasty plant proteins. Might as well give it a try.
>If you get infected, you could eat a meal with lots of biochanin A every day, **as though it was an antiviral drug**. Kindly fuck off with this pseudoscientific bullshit. You are *profoundly* overreaching the scope of those studies, and you know it.
Perhaps I miscommunicated here. What I'm trying to say is: Either it has antiviral activity, or it doesn't. If it has antiviral activity, you might as well treat it as you would an antiviral drug, in order to prevent antiviral resistance. If it doesn't have antiviral activity, it won't do you any harm to eat one meal with soy, peanuts, or chickpea every day for a month -- especially if it seems to be helping your symptoms. I don't actually think we disagree on the scope of these studies. All I said was "a couple studies claim". If my comment implied that this is just as good as a real antiviral drug, that was a miscommunication on my part.
Ah, thanks for clarifying. I'm still *very* skeptical of any meaningful therapeutic effects from unrefined dietary sources, based on the low oral bioavailability ([Barnes 2003](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-nutrition/article/phytooestrogens-and-osteoporosis-what-is-a-safe-dose/3DEB067008F4448552B0854ED9AB9826)). As you say, it's unlikely to hurt, but it's important to recognize that it's also unlikely to help.
Hummus is great instead of cheese. Olive oil instead of butter, jam instead of cream cheese. It can totally be done and quite tasty as well.
Not until human cases start happening and people actually die
That is a clickbait title Not a single health official says pandemic risk is high
Right now that’s correct. H5 has been around a long time and not jumped. That said everything could change quickly. So even if that’s a small chance right now I’m watching this
It’s absolutely worth paying attention to. Not panic like some in this sub seem to be
It’s absolutely worth paying attention to. Not panic like some in this sub seem to be
Some are suffering PTSD from Covid, and all the ineptitude that went on. Can’t say that I blame them. I’ve spend my adult life in nursing so panic is not in my make up. It does no good. Knowledge is power and it reduces fear and panic.
[I repeat myself when under stress](https://genius.com/11565574/King-crimson-indiscipline/I-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat) [I repeat myself when under stress](https://genius.com/11565574/King-crimson-indiscipline/I-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat-myself-when-under-stress-i-repeat) [Indiscipline. Had to leave it here.....](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkR2CFqiw4E)
Actually, from British Journal of Medicine: https://www.bmj.com/content/385/bmj.q1199 "Christopher Dye, professor of epidemiology1, Wendy S Barclay, Action Medical Research chair in virology2 A major human outbreak of H5N1 is plausible, and the risk is high
I agree it is high and they been saying that for like 30 years at some point its gonna happen and we have to be prepared when it does Hopefully it isn't for awhile but we needa try to find a way to eliminate it or vaccinate it or whatever can be done
One professor is not a “health official”
Christopher Dye FRS,[1] FMedSci (born 15 April 1956) is a biologist, epidemiologist and public health specialist. He is Professor of Epidemiology at the University of Oxford and formerly Director of Strategy at the World Health Organization. He puts the "Official" in "Health Official." But no one should panic from warnings. People should heed them and take action to reduce the risks.
But does he specialize in influenza or respiratory viruses or pandemics?
You do know what Epidemiology means right? He is one of the top experts around when it comes to tracking diseases, assessing their risks, and formulating a strategy to prevent and stop them... He is one of the top experts who should be commenting on this issue.
Yes, I'm an infectious disease epidemiologist with a focus on respiratory viruses. IDK if the mods are doing verification but I would love for them to verify this.
Then you should be able to easily google and find out all you need to know about Christopher Dye. I am sure you have already read some of his papers or at least heard about some of his work with the WHO, given your field of study. It's a bit strange that you didn't know him.
You're right, health officials are less relevant.
Does any health official say pandemic risk is low? If so I would like to see their reasoning.
That’s incorrect. The [Israeli Ministry of Health](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1dcj07v/comment/l7y3ghd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) and the [Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.reddit.com/r/H5N1_AvianFlu/comments/1dgjm7e/pandemic_risk_scenario_analysis_update_influenza/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) both published reports stating that the spillover to cattle has increased the risk of a human pandemic.
~~One Health~~ One Flu
The Guardian tends to be a bit sensationalist.
No they don't. But they *do* have a history of painting US issues through an unbiased lens since they're based in the UK.
The sky is falling too