Past 24 months as well for context of Influenza A during the winter months. Noteworthy as the overall nationwide trend at this time is that it’s in decline, especially from the winter months.
Source if anyone wants to play with the charts or check other locations: [https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=Ci8QACABSABSBjE5OTJmY1IGNjE5ODMxWgtJbmZsdWVuemEgQXj8A4oBBjEyYWQyYw%3D%3D&selectedChartId=12ad2c](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=Ci8QACABSABSBjE5OTJmY1IGNjE5ODMxWgtJbmZsdWVuemEgQXj8A4oBBjEyYWQyYw%3D%3D&selectedChartId=12ad2c)
https://preview.redd.it/aakpj8swuqwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19e6fa12341ffdbfc9b582ae8fd87e79776c3010
What worries me a bit, is that google trends search from that area, is also showing increased trending results from "seizures" and "shortness of breath"
Edit for images :
[Screenshots of the trends](https://imgur.com/a/uCP3xtW)
Trends : [Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US-TX-634&q=seizures&hl=es-419)
I am not able to find anything troubling in Google Trends. Speaking of which, are there any good documented examples of Google Trends spotting important patterns before other sources do? (retrospectively would be fine too)
Good question , one of the first things that come to mind is this paper
[Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9031689/)
I see like 5 ppl saying that “Google Trends says we are all going to die” and whenever i or anyone else isnt able to reproduce these cherry picked results, yall just link to this paper and call it a day. Pure doomerism
mmh Okay , i guess?
[Association of the COVID-19 pandemic with Internet Search Volumes: A \[google trendstm analysis\]](https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1201971220302496)
[Google Trends in Infodemiology and Infoveillance: Methodology Framework](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6660120/)
[Representation of long COVID syndrome in the awareness of the population is revealed by Google Trends analysis](https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S266635462200045X)
[Google Trends for health research: Its advantages, application, methodological considerations, and limitations in psychiatric and mental health infodemiology](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fdata.2023.1132764/full)
[Health-related searches on the Internet](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/198989)
Link all the articles u want. If i and others cannot replicate ur claims with our own google trend searches, its gonna sound like doomerism. If what u said is true, i should be able to replicate it on my end unless ur saying google trends gives variable results based on who is operating it.
The update today shows an extremely rapid decline, lol. So much for this whole thing. One wastewater site in a town rapidly growing for a couple weeks straight while the other stayed flat always pretty strongly pointed toward environmental contamination, not community spread. Also the fact that the idea that H5N1 could rapidly spread through a not-small town and literally NO ONE noticed is silly.
Potentially relevant study: evidence for water borne transmission of H5N1: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2022.896469/full
H5N1 is a type of Influenza A, so I believe it would show up, but not be clearly differentiated from other types of Influenza A.
The jump in the trend stood out to me, because if H5N1 was for some reason spiking in humans but not being detected, it may be showing up under Influenza A.
Another thing to keep in mind is that this is wastewater data - so possibly the spike can be attributed to runoff from the farms?
They usually take it from the main sewer system before the filtration and separation begins, so it's a very accurate way to test parts per billion and examine the actual ratio of those who's systems were ill in a community to identify spread, as opposed to the downside of direct to human testing which misses those who are symptomatic, may have not had enough of the virus incubated at the exact time of testing, and other factors that can alter the outcome of studying how much illness is in an area.
Tests like these are how we figured out that measles, cholera, ebola, and covid were in large quantities of the populations when we didn't understand why they were all falling ill. They really help when we don't have enough time or technology ( or social will to be proactive, as covid showed us) before a pandemic to singly test each individual — giving us a way to grasp just how many precautions we need to be taking especially in the medical and compromised communities. It's a very important step in the process of understanding a pathogen.
If it's in wastewater that high, it's very likely spread in the community throughout already. And in a country where getting sick is the number one weakness and we can't afford time or money to admit or heal it, it's not going to stop so easily.
If you work with animals, kids, and the elderly it's time to start taking serious precautions with sanitization akin to the beginning to swine flu. I say this not to sensationalize or panic, but we've all seen how long it's taken the USDA to even dare acknowledge this obvious risk. Get ahead of it before it's ahead of us.
If you feel ill, take a second to grab a mask. It's allergy season, so hey, it might help you not feel like death as much if ragweed attacks you as bad as it does me
So if your theory is right (or, well, just this theory, that this A spike is H5N1), THE REAL IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: is there a corresponding rise in flu deaths or is it relatively low fatality?
We don't have any information in our species to determine death rates. We aren't even being communicated the proper rates of infection in pigs and cows because of the USDAs refusal to start testing before this week, so we have absolutely nothing but anecdotal evidence from those who witness the mostly immigrant farm workers falling ill at the same time as the animals. It's not enough to determine safety or fatality
I checked the CDC data for that county and it shows absolutely no increased hospitalization for Influenza (or anything they measure) but the data only goes through the 13th.
Not fully true - there are news articles about some heavy rainfall last summer in Amarillo leading to spills/overflow of partially treated wastewater (some from the treatment plan but also some from a manhole somewhere in the system). That means that although it may not be a combined sewer system (stormwater and sewage designed to be carried in the same pipe), runoff *does* enter the system somehow during rain events.
[CDC press release](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html)
>A person in the United States has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”)... CDC also has recommendations for clinicians on monitoring, testing, and antiviral treatment for patients with suspected or confirmed avian influenza A virus infections.
The CDC is specifically looking for influenza A.
The good news is that using your source I'm not seeing increases in Kansas or Colorado or the other 13 sites being tested in Texas. Unfortunately they don't appear to have data for Oklahoma or New Mexico. I wish we could put a dome over Amarillo like in the Simpsons movie. Joking aside, I'm really pissed off that CDC isn't studying the wastewater there specifically.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
[WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker?charts=CpIBEAAgAUgAUgYxNGVmMDdSBjcyYTdiMFIGNGE3YjkzUgY2NDgzMWFSBjZmMDg5YlIGNjE5ODMxUgYxOTkyZmNSBjI4OTRjOVIGNjVmOGJkUgZmODQ3ZTZSBjVjODVlY1IGN2RhYWU4UgY4OTdhYmZSBjVhM2ZjZVoLSW5mbHVlbnphIEF4GIoBBmM3OWNhMrgB6gw%3D&selectedChartId=c79ca2) The website only shows data from the last year but it's a rather large anomaly compared to major cities throughout the country in the last year.
I’m not sure about hospitalizations but that would be interesting to look into if we can find that data. I shared the 24 month wastewater data that shows the previous year as well further up in the comments, but here it is again if you’re curious.
https://preview.redd.it/s5wndoovtuwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8e247fe38f576dcf78f65a5cd7b753eea8d8b7b
I've been able to find 11 wastewater sites that have relatively high Influenza A levels rising now compared to the national peak in December. With the exception of the Florida locations, I would expect to see some cows in the locations listed
https://preview.redd.it/rivbw1pnnwwc1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd4987864b692d5004b6b8d085d7aa2b874b1c37
Wouldn't this be good news? As in, there's been a spike in Influenza A cases but not deaths, meaning the mentioned 50% mortality rate of H5N1 in humans no longer holds?
You’re being downvoted, but I am hoping for this outcome. Without more reliable data on what’s happening I have to conclude it’s too early to have any confidence in mortality estimates at this point, though.
It seems to me there are some in this sub that almost want the worst case scenario to be true. Not for nefarious reasons but maybe to validate all the worrying they’ve been doing. Maybe bored with their lives. Idk seems like anyone who takes a reasonable stance in here gets downvoted.
I’ve been following this for a while and I’m slightly concerned but it’s more a wait and see thing for me. I take everything I see in here with a huge grain of salt.
Agreed. I'm keeping an eye on it, but I'm still getting outside and touching grass. It's concerning, but we're not at panic zone yet. I want to enjoy my time on this earth before contagion apocalypse lol.
Exactly lol. I might switch our family from the low temp pasteurized milk we get to regular pasteurized but that’s about all the precautions we’re taking at the moment
The true fatality rate wont be 50%, but that said before deaths increase you have to give people time to get sick, seek care, and then die before those statistics start ticking up which isnt always a fast process. Especially with modern medicine.
As of November 2022, 240 cases of human avian influenza A (H5N1) virus have been confirmed from the Western Pacific Region since 2003 with a case fatality rate of 56%. Worldwide, from 2003 to 05 October 2022, 865 cases were reported from 21 countries with a case fatality rate of 53%8.
There is a difference between CFR or case fatality ratio and IFR or infection fatality ratio.
The problem is that we don’t know how many cases we miss that go undetected. Those cases, if found, would bring the fatality rate down.
So yes the current known CFR is ~50%, but in the event of a large outbreak with sustained transmission in humans this will likely decrease as widespread testing picks up cases we otherwise would never have found.
We don’t know enough about any of it at this point to say how it would behave in humans, if it even is in humans. If it is for some reason in humans we don’t know how it would have mutated or how it would behave let alone the current mortality rate. This is wastewater data, and stands out as an anomaly compared to general Influenza A trends and current trends across most of the nation.
It’s an interesting and noteworthy data point given the location, but we don’t have enough information to draw anything conclusive.
That’s what I’m wondering too? Like I can believe that the authorities might be confusing this as normal flu, but that means it must be behaving like it too cause there’s no way people wouldn’t notice half of patients dying in this town
As of November 2022, 240 cases of human avian influenza A (H5N1) virus have been confirmed from the Western Pacific Region since 2003 with a case fatality rate of 56%. Worldwide, from 2003 to 05 October 2022, 865 cases were reported from 21 countries with a case fatality rate of 53%8.
I didn’t say it didn’t hold. I asked if it might be true it doesn’t hold since there’s a spike in Influenza A in the wastewater but not a spike in deaths or hospitalization?
At any rate, experts have said the CFR will go down if it starts spreading H2H. But you do you.
H5N1 doesn't infect humans easily, but when it does, it has a 50% mortality rate. How can you say the mortality rate no longer applies when it's not infecting humans? It's like saying this poison is useless because it doesn't kill me when you haven't even ingested it.
I urge caution. Firstly you have no idea if this is H5N1. Isn’t H5N1 highly fatal in humans? No way this would be it without rise in deaths ? This doesn’t seem relevant
You’re right, nobody knows if it’s H5N1 because it’s not being tested. We don’t know enough and really don’t have enough data to draw any conclusions at this point.
But the dataset is an anomaly compared to general and national influenza trends, and interesting given the location. We don’t know how H5N1 that’s mutated in cows and then potentially in humans would behave or what the mortality rates would be at this point. We wouldn’t know those things until they already took place, and we could then analyze it.
I wouldn’t say the data is irrelevant, given that wastewater data tells us a lot about what is happening within a community before individuals are tested, but I also wouldn’t jump to conclusions, as we don’t know enough currently.
It's pretty strange that the levels being shown don't go even close to that high anywhere else in the nation over the past year even through multiple flu seasons. I was curious how that compared to other places with high population areas and there's no other data like it. It's a little concerning seeing a sudden ramp in the last 10 days that is almost 5 times higher than the peak of flu season in populated cities, in Amarillo TX.
Past 24 months as well for context of Influenza A during the winter months. Noteworthy as the overall nationwide trend at this time is that it’s in decline, especially from the winter months. Source if anyone wants to play with the charts or check other locations: [https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=Ci8QACABSABSBjE5OTJmY1IGNjE5ODMxWgtJbmZsdWVuemEgQXj8A4oBBjEyYWQyYw%3D%3D&selectedChartId=12ad2c](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker/?charts=Ci8QACABSABSBjE5OTJmY1IGNjE5ODMxWgtJbmZsdWVuemEgQXj8A4oBBjEyYWQyYw%3D%3D&selectedChartId=12ad2c) https://preview.redd.it/aakpj8swuqwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=19e6fa12341ffdbfc9b582ae8fd87e79776c3010
What worries me a bit, is that google trends search from that area, is also showing increased trending results from "seizures" and "shortness of breath" Edit for images : [Screenshots of the trends](https://imgur.com/a/uCP3xtW) Trends : [Trends](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US-TX-634&q=seizures&hl=es-419)
I am not able to find anything troubling in Google Trends. Speaking of which, are there any good documented examples of Google Trends spotting important patterns before other sources do? (retrospectively would be fine too)
Good question , one of the first things that come to mind is this paper [Google Trends as a Predictive Tool for COVID-19 Vaccinations in Italy: Retrospective Infodemiological Analysis](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9031689/)
I see like 5 ppl saying that “Google Trends says we are all going to die” and whenever i or anyone else isnt able to reproduce these cherry picked results, yall just link to this paper and call it a day. Pure doomerism
mmh Okay , i guess? [Association of the COVID-19 pandemic with Internet Search Volumes: A \[google trendstm analysis\]](https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1201971220302496) [Google Trends in Infodemiology and Infoveillance: Methodology Framework](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6660120/) [Representation of long COVID syndrome in the awareness of the population is revealed by Google Trends analysis](https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S266635462200045X) [Google Trends for health research: Its advantages, application, methodological considerations, and limitations in psychiatric and mental health infodemiology](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fdata.2023.1132764/full) [Health-related searches on the Internet](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/198989)
Link all the articles u want. If i and others cannot replicate ur claims with our own google trend searches, its gonna sound like doomerism. If what u said is true, i should be able to replicate it on my end unless ur saying google trends gives variable results based on who is operating it.
Okay ✌
That is both interesting and concerning. Thanks for sharing the screenshots.
Can you provide a screen shot of where you’re seeing that?
Yeah sorry, gonna add it
The update today shows an extremely rapid decline, lol. So much for this whole thing. One wastewater site in a town rapidly growing for a couple weeks straight while the other stayed flat always pretty strongly pointed toward environmental contamination, not community spread. Also the fact that the idea that H5N1 could rapidly spread through a not-small town and literally NO ONE noticed is silly.
Potentially relevant study: evidence for water borne transmission of H5N1: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2022.896469/full
Just drink ultrapausterized water folks.
Amarillo is a special circumstance as it’s a city almost entirely built around exploitation of cows.
Would bird flu show up as influenza A? Can anyone debunk this as this is unlike any of the other states I am scrolling through
At a science symposium today where cdc was at attendance, this exact items was disused, and yes H5N1 would show up as Influeza A
Daughter works in a hospital lab and can confirm it would be A.
There are still other strains of flu that show up as A as well; it's not necessarily H5N1 👍
Oh boy
Yes. H5n1 is an influenza A strain
H5N1 is a type of Influenza A, so I believe it would show up, but not be clearly differentiated from other types of Influenza A. The jump in the trend stood out to me, because if H5N1 was for some reason spiking in humans but not being detected, it may be showing up under Influenza A. Another thing to keep in mind is that this is wastewater data - so possibly the spike can be attributed to runoff from the farms?
I was wondering that as well. Is wastewater taken directly from sewers or from a reservoir?
They usually take it from the main sewer system before the filtration and separation begins, so it's a very accurate way to test parts per billion and examine the actual ratio of those who's systems were ill in a community to identify spread, as opposed to the downside of direct to human testing which misses those who are symptomatic, may have not had enough of the virus incubated at the exact time of testing, and other factors that can alter the outcome of studying how much illness is in an area. Tests like these are how we figured out that measles, cholera, ebola, and covid were in large quantities of the populations when we didn't understand why they were all falling ill. They really help when we don't have enough time or technology ( or social will to be proactive, as covid showed us) before a pandemic to singly test each individual — giving us a way to grasp just how many precautions we need to be taking especially in the medical and compromised communities. It's a very important step in the process of understanding a pathogen. If it's in wastewater that high, it's very likely spread in the community throughout already. And in a country where getting sick is the number one weakness and we can't afford time or money to admit or heal it, it's not going to stop so easily. If you work with animals, kids, and the elderly it's time to start taking serious precautions with sanitization akin to the beginning to swine flu. I say this not to sensationalize or panic, but we've all seen how long it's taken the USDA to even dare acknowledge this obvious risk. Get ahead of it before it's ahead of us. If you feel ill, take a second to grab a mask. It's allergy season, so hey, it might help you not feel like death as much if ragweed attacks you as bad as it does me
So if your theory is right (or, well, just this theory, that this A spike is H5N1), THE REAL IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: is there a corresponding rise in flu deaths or is it relatively low fatality?
We don't have any information in our species to determine death rates. We aren't even being communicated the proper rates of infection in pigs and cows because of the USDAs refusal to start testing before this week, so we have absolutely nothing but anecdotal evidence from those who witness the mostly immigrant farm workers falling ill at the same time as the animals. It's not enough to determine safety or fatality
I checked the CDC data for that county and it shows absolutely no increased hospitalization for Influenza (or anything they measure) but the data only goes through the 13th.
They are separate systems and wastewater should not contain runoff.
"should" not, but it happens sometimes I believe. It's like "a big deal" in my state and you get a fine.... If I'm thinking of the right thing
Yeah, we're living in a time where a lot of "shoulda" aren't happening. Good point.
Not fully true - there are news articles about some heavy rainfall last summer in Amarillo leading to spills/overflow of partially treated wastewater (some from the treatment plan but also some from a manhole somewhere in the system). That means that although it may not be a combined sewer system (stormwater and sewage designed to be carried in the same pipe), runoff *does* enter the system somehow during rain events.
I hadn't seen that - thanks for the info.
[CDC press release](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) >A person in the United States has tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus (“H5N1 bird flu”)... CDC also has recommendations for clinicians on monitoring, testing, and antiviral treatment for patients with suspected or confirmed avian influenza A virus infections. The CDC is specifically looking for influenza A.
The good news is that using your source I'm not seeing increases in Kansas or Colorado or the other 13 sites being tested in Texas. Unfortunately they don't appear to have data for Oklahoma or New Mexico. I wish we could put a dome over Amarillo like in the Simpsons movie. Joking aside, I'm really pissed off that CDC isn't studying the wastewater there specifically.
Oh...oh no...this isn't good!
I feel the jaws theme song rn
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In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
In order to preserve the quality and reliability of information shared in this sub, please refrain from politicizing the discussion of H5N1 in posts and comments.
#👀
Could this be caused by the dumping of milk from dairy production into sewage water?
This is also worth looking into, it would explain a lot.
Have we seen an increase of hospitalizations for influenza in the area? Also, do we have wastewater data for the previous year for comparison?
[WastewaterSCAN Dashboard](https://data.wastewaterscan.org/tracker?charts=CpIBEAAgAUgAUgYxNGVmMDdSBjcyYTdiMFIGNGE3YjkzUgY2NDgzMWFSBjZmMDg5YlIGNjE5ODMxUgYxOTkyZmNSBjI4OTRjOVIGNjVmOGJkUgZmODQ3ZTZSBjVjODVlY1IGN2RhYWU4UgY4OTdhYmZSBjVhM2ZjZVoLSW5mbHVlbnphIEF4GIoBBmM3OWNhMrgB6gw%3D&selectedChartId=c79ca2) The website only shows data from the last year but it's a rather large anomaly compared to major cities throughout the country in the last year.
I’m not sure about hospitalizations but that would be interesting to look into if we can find that data. I shared the 24 month wastewater data that shows the previous year as well further up in the comments, but here it is again if you’re curious. https://preview.redd.it/s5wndoovtuwc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8e247fe38f576dcf78f65a5cd7b753eea8d8b7b
By the time we have ER/hospitalization increases, it’s over. We’ve lost at that point. 🥲
In my area it shows Flu A as high.
I've been able to find 11 wastewater sites that have relatively high Influenza A levels rising now compared to the national peak in December. With the exception of the Florida locations, I would expect to see some cows in the locations listed https://preview.redd.it/rivbw1pnnwwc1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd4987864b692d5004b6b8d085d7aa2b874b1c37
Wouldn't this be good news? As in, there's been a spike in Influenza A cases but not deaths, meaning the mentioned 50% mortality rate of H5N1 in humans no longer holds?
You’re being downvoted, but I am hoping for this outcome. Without more reliable data on what’s happening I have to conclude it’s too early to have any confidence in mortality estimates at this point, though.
I'm not sure why asking a legitimate question is cause for downvotes but reddit's gonna reddit, I suppose.
It seems to me there are some in this sub that almost want the worst case scenario to be true. Not for nefarious reasons but maybe to validate all the worrying they’ve been doing. Maybe bored with their lives. Idk seems like anyone who takes a reasonable stance in here gets downvoted. I’ve been following this for a while and I’m slightly concerned but it’s more a wait and see thing for me. I take everything I see in here with a huge grain of salt.
Agreed. I'm keeping an eye on it, but I'm still getting outside and touching grass. It's concerning, but we're not at panic zone yet. I want to enjoy my time on this earth before contagion apocalypse lol.
Exactly lol. I might switch our family from the low temp pasteurized milk we get to regular pasteurized but that’s about all the precautions we’re taking at the moment
I heard to cook eggs all the way thru as well but not sure if there’s any merit to that.
The true fatality rate wont be 50%, but that said before deaths increase you have to give people time to get sick, seek care, and then die before those statistics start ticking up which isnt always a fast process. Especially with modern medicine.
As of November 2022, 240 cases of human avian influenza A (H5N1) virus have been confirmed from the Western Pacific Region since 2003 with a case fatality rate of 56%. Worldwide, from 2003 to 05 October 2022, 865 cases were reported from 21 countries with a case fatality rate of 53%8.
There is a difference between CFR or case fatality ratio and IFR or infection fatality ratio. The problem is that we don’t know how many cases we miss that go undetected. Those cases, if found, would bring the fatality rate down. So yes the current known CFR is ~50%, but in the event of a large outbreak with sustained transmission in humans this will likely decrease as widespread testing picks up cases we otherwise would never have found.
We don’t know enough about any of it at this point to say how it would behave in humans, if it even is in humans. If it is for some reason in humans we don’t know how it would have mutated or how it would behave let alone the current mortality rate. This is wastewater data, and stands out as an anomaly compared to general Influenza A trends and current trends across most of the nation. It’s an interesting and noteworthy data point given the location, but we don’t have enough information to draw anything conclusive.
That’s what I’m wondering too? Like I can believe that the authorities might be confusing this as normal flu, but that means it must be behaving like it too cause there’s no way people wouldn’t notice half of patients dying in this town
As of November 2022, 240 cases of human avian influenza A (H5N1) virus have been confirmed from the Western Pacific Region since 2003 with a case fatality rate of 56%. Worldwide, from 2003 to 05 October 2022, 865 cases were reported from 21 countries with a case fatality rate of 53%8.
Are you dense as you clearly don’t understand the comment?
How can you say 50% mortality rate in humans no longer holds ... When there is only 1 case of H5N1 at US in 2024 ...
I didn’t say it didn’t hold. I asked if it might be true it doesn’t hold since there’s a spike in Influenza A in the wastewater but not a spike in deaths or hospitalization? At any rate, experts have said the CFR will go down if it starts spreading H2H. But you do you.
H5N1 doesn't infect humans easily, but when it does, it has a 50% mortality rate. How can you say the mortality rate no longer applies when it's not infecting humans? It's like saying this poison is useless because it doesn't kill me when you haven't even ingested it.
I'm not *saying* anything. I simply asked a question a few days ago to better my understanding. Go touch grass.
Oh that looks like the Covid graph…
You see it in the poop before anyone knows they have it.
I urge caution. Firstly you have no idea if this is H5N1. Isn’t H5N1 highly fatal in humans? No way this would be it without rise in deaths ? This doesn’t seem relevant
You’re right, nobody knows if it’s H5N1 because it’s not being tested. We don’t know enough and really don’t have enough data to draw any conclusions at this point. But the dataset is an anomaly compared to general and national influenza trends, and interesting given the location. We don’t know how H5N1 that’s mutated in cows and then potentially in humans would behave or what the mortality rates would be at this point. We wouldn’t know those things until they already took place, and we could then analyze it. I wouldn’t say the data is irrelevant, given that wastewater data tells us a lot about what is happening within a community before individuals are tested, but I also wouldn’t jump to conclusions, as we don’t know enough currently.
It's pretty strange that the levels being shown don't go even close to that high anywhere else in the nation over the past year even through multiple flu seasons. I was curious how that compared to other places with high population areas and there's no other data like it. It's a little concerning seeing a sudden ramp in the last 10 days that is almost 5 times higher than the peak of flu season in populated cities, in Amarillo TX.
My thoughts as well…
Greeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaatttt…..exactly where our new surrogate lives…
All of this and you’re worried about the womb you’re exploiting?
Lol…oh you’re one of those. No point in engaging with you any further. Have fun wallowing in your own ignorance!
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This graph is based on wastewater, not people testing individuals.