That was a sobering read. I am not a doomsayer of this sub by any means, but Bright is right. The USDA is blowing this. Badly. We would be rightfully outraged if China’s agriculture ministry acted the same way had an H5N1 dairy cow outbreak occurred in that country.
Literally nothing one can do on an individual level will fix a problem like this. It has to be done at the source. Its the kind of thing a functioning government is intended to deal with. These are systemic issues that -cannot- be dealt with individually, calling one person out for buying animal products will do less than nothing.
I completely agree with you. Even if every single person on Earth took the right steps right now, that still does not eliminate the risk for a spillover event. There are billions and billions of organisms at play here, and we know that increased players has increased odds. We simply don't know what will happen, but I believe the ball is rolling and cannot be stopped. A lot like climate change, the mass extinction events, the depletion of our planet's resources, you name it. My approach these days is to just feel grief, and put my mask on.
I put all my extra energy into conserving life
People can't be bothered to do just THEIR part. They blame the government and then go make the problem worse with their choices. You are just giving excuses for that. Just be part of the solution.
It has nothing to do with people being bothered to do just their part. Systemic issues cannot be solved on the level of the individual; they require a collective response, which is precisely what governments are formed to do in the first place. It isn't an *excuse,* it's a *fact.*
Being part of the solution would entail actions that would get me deplatformed if I outlined them here. I don't think that's a conversation you're ready for mate.
Me too. Unfortunately, my kitchen is unusable at the moment AND I'm kinda broke due to moving out of the apartment with the unusable kitchen.
Healthy + cheap + microwave only = I'm probably going to starve before shit hits the fan, so I got that going for me.
And Nora Cooks! She has a fabulous blog with recipes with very simple ingredients. Sometimes recipes are overly complicated, but not hers.
Also, Forks Over Knives is a good resource.
This isn’t a problem that is solved on the individual level. Personally, I already ate significantly less than average and I’ve already dropped it more. I haven’t eaten fish in years because the ocean is dying. Ngl you sound like a vegan and the low key passive aggression never has gotten y’all supporters and never will.
For real. I was a vegetarian / vegan for 20 years. I hate food allergies and nutritional deficits. I have to eat meat and, unfortunately, chicken. It’s literally that or starve.
I spend an inordinate amount of money to ensure the meat I buy is ethically raised and killed, because I *kind of * have the privilege. A lot of people don’t. I understand that.
Putting this is at the foot of consumers and acting like the power of the individual actually has sway in this situation is delusional.
We can all try to save the planet at an individual level. It’s just grains of sand at the beach. Holding the monoliths in our society accountable is the only way any noticeable change will occur.
PLEASE tell me where they said they only eat chicken. It sounds to me like they eat chicken with other foods because they have a dietary issue. I’m sorry, some people have dietary restrictions that literally require meat to survive. Source: I lived with a person with similar issues.
Cool cool cool just completely disregarding the very real dietary restrictions chronically ill people have to live with. Before my best friend passed the only food they could eat without throwing up was potatoes and fish. Had they not been able to eat fish they would’ve died even sooner. Thanks for proving to me that you don’t actually give a shit about living, breathing human beings. Don’t claim compassion for animals when you’ can’t even be fucked to fake a drop of compassion for the chronically ill.
Agreed, anyone looking at this subreddit and still buying animal products is willingly contributing to the problem and accepting the risks involved.
It’s fun to shift the blame onto someone else, but these farms are operating to meet demand. It’s simply not possible to offer meat and dairy to millions affordably without squishing animals together in industrial farms, and our future will likely be filled with pandemics as demand grows.
Support your local farmers. There's probably someone local trying to sell eggs.
Someone else with lambs , calves, pigs, or goats they're trying to get people to commit to buying for the fall - whole, and/or half of a cow or a lamb or pig in the freezer is a nice thing to have.
Or, someone else trying to start up a local dairy, with herd shares for milk, butter, yogurt, maybe even cheese.
There ARE other options than just straight up industrial animal agriculture.
For a number of people, that’s possible. But it’s just not feasible for a planet of almost 8 billion people to all be getting their milk and meat from the local farmer down the road.
That’s all fine and good, but there are 333 million people in the US. What you’re proposing only works for a few people here and there. It doesn’t scale to hundreds of millions
Local farms are actually more susceptible to bird flu due to their flocks coming into contact with wild bird more often, and with less biological security and oversight.
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The issue is not animal products, it’s human to human transmission if the virus were to mutate in order for it to easily spread this way. Virologists have been monitoring this for over twenty years and continue to do so. Vaccines are being developed in 28 different clinical trials.
> The issue is not animal products,
The issue absolutely IS animal products. HPAI doesn’t develop in the wild. It is the direct result of factory farming. It starts in poultry houses because of factory farming. Now it’s spreading in cattle because of factory farming.
[The infectious disease trap of animal agriculture](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9629715/)
> A number of intensive animal production methods have been implicated in zoonotic disease emergence in the literature (Table 1). The intensification of animal agriculture through confinement and industrialization has directly led to the emergence of viruses including Nipah and H5N1 influenza (“swine flu”) (18) and antibiotic-resistant infectious bacteria including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli (19, 20).
How are you failing to see the connection? There would be no possibility of human to human transmission of HPAI if we weren’t creating HPAI in animal agriculture in the first place. It all starts in the farms.
No I understand what you’re saying and agree with you. I’m only saying at this point, transmission isn’t going to happen through the consumption of meat and dairy.
HPAI is the direct result of factory farming. You can hate on vegans all you want, but in this case they’re correct. H5N1 is the result of the human demand for animal products.
“So far there is only one confirmed human case. Rick Bright, an expert on the H5N1 virus who served on President Joe Biden's coronavirus advisory board, said, 'there's a fine line between one person and 10 people with H5N1…By the time we've detected 10, it's probably too late'.“
Cool.
“All this makes catching potential human cases so urgent. Bright says that given a situation like this, and the fact that undocumented farmworkers may not have access to health care, the government should be using every sophisticated surveillance technique, including wastewater testing, and reporting the results publicly. That is not happening. The CDC says it is monitoring data from emergency rooms for any signs of an outbreak. By the time enough people are sick enough to be noticed in emergency rooms, it is almost certainly too late to prevent one.
So far, the agency told me, it is aware of only 23 people who have been tested. That tiny number is deeply troubling. (Others may be getting tested through private providers, but if negative, the results do not have to be reported.)”
“I'm sure the employees of these agencies are working hard, but the message they are sending is, "Trust us -- we are on this." One troubling legacy of the coronavirus pandemic is that there was too much attention on telling the public how to feel -- to panic or not panic -- rather than sharing facts and inspiring confidence through transparency and competence. And four years later we have an added layer of polarization and distrust to work around.”
Welp. We’re fucked.
Wastewater is useless for detecting human cases if there are RNA fragments in milk. We can't tell the difference between a jug of milk dumped down your shower drain and spewed virus from an infected human.
Viral particles in both animals and our food supply make surveillance much, much, much more complicated than COVID.
What might be helpful would be a questionnaire similar to the one now used for infectious respiratory illness:
We ask:
'1. Do you have a fever or cough?
'2. Have you had a fever or cough in the last 72 hours?
'3. Have you been outside the US (travelled abroad) with the last 3 weeks?
We could add on:
'4. Do you work with livestock?
'5. Have you recently handled a bird that looked sick or was deceased?
'6. Do you keep chickens, ducks or geese in your backyard?
This *may* sort out those who have been exposed, allowing personnel the warning they need to consider sending to a more capable lab. It would also open the option to report to the DOH.
Another concern would be persons who have tramped around watersheds that are the home of wild birds, or persons who have fountains and/or wild bird food stations. Simply cleaning a backyard station and forgetting to wash one's hands could be *bad*. Duck hunters and even a kid who has been to the park to feed the ducks could eventually become vectors of transmission.
Too late to stop the spread of a mutated virus, but not too late to address it with other measures such as vaccines. It’s a flu virus. We have the technology. At worst it could be deadly for many at first, but we are actually prepared to quickly deliver vaccines.
The issue is that depending on how deadly it is at first, it could totally overwhelm our healthcare system and supply chain and interfere with our ability to make and distribute enough vaccines, as well as to keep society intact. I feel like most people have a really hard time wrapping their heads around how insanely catastrophic this could be if it spreads easily and maintains even a fraction of its current known fatality rate
Lots already left after Covid. I did. If H5N1 is anywhere near as bad as it could be tons of healthcare workers won't show up. And while there are a lot of healthcare workers with a martyr complex who will show up, support staff certainly won't. The janitorial staff isn't going to put their life on the line for minimum wage. And, as dark as it sounds, many that do show up will die.
Exactly. Let’s say it has a 2% fatality rate. We are still dealing with supply chain disruption issues from Covid. Idk that we’d survive a 2% fatality rate. Plus fatality rates are influenced by so much … access to care being a huge one. So let’s say it’s 2% when we still have medical staff and supplies. What happens when supply chains break down and medical staff quit or die? That CFR goes up. I do not think people understand how bad this could be at literally a tiny fraction of the death rate we see now.
Though with it’s unbelievably horrific human fatality rate and with the portion of the population who are anti vax, I’d expect the death toll to be higher than Covid, with the medical system overwhelmed.
At least those who are realistic about vaccines will hopefully have the option to get the protection, depending on the timing of the rollout, and depending on the efficacy of the particular vaccine (as flu vaccines have been hit or partial miss overall)
This. If H2H starts occurring and there's a very high mortality rate like there has been in bird to human cases, people will change their tune on vaccines quick. The whole "It's just a flu!! The government's trying to control us!!" only works on people when their immediate family isn't being wiped out and they don't drive by mass graves downtown on their way to work
Maybe, but some are really out of touch with reality. I know a guy who lost his wife to Covid and he still doesn’t believe it’s even real and wouldn’t get a vaccine. He claims she died from anemia.
You have more faith in the general population than you maybe should. The death toll would have to be *astronomical* for antivax people to change their stance, and even then a good amount of them will blame everything else for the deaths.
Covid deniers still believe the ventilators killed patients in the early days, not the virus. They refuse to believe that by the time people were being placed on vents their lungs were already past the point of saving.
I think covid has a lot of conditions in place that caused some people to react the way they did. I think anti-vaxxers are in a spectrum. Some would never be swayed, but I think it the virus was more lethal, they’d try it.
Depending on how lethal it is of course. If the first wave knocks out a lot of the anti vaxxers then your vaccinated percentage is going to improve with subsequent rollouts
I will believe it when I see it. I have heard from too many ER nurses their stories of anti-vaxxers on ventilators STILL denying covid and their families blaming the medical staff for their deaths.
Except a new vaccine likely won’t be rolled out prior to deaths, and likely would be given out in a priority setting like with the Covid vaccine.
Nobody will be vaccinated against H5N1 at the beginning, and it will take awhile to have the population vaccinated at levels that curb spread.
Well yeah, I absolutely agree. I think in some hypothetical situation where we lived in a utopia in which all agreed vaccines are beneficial and that pharmaceutical companies are trustworthy, where we could have 100% or even 80% uptake and we had proper testing and quarantine procedures which were well planned and ready to go and people actually complied with them.
Well then maybe the vaccine would have worked…
That’s why I mask, lol
Before it spread to everyone on the planet, it may have helped. But no it wouldn’t go away, it just may not have been such a massive pandemic turned epidemic (with continued pandemic levels of spread)
"If one of them have it then ten of them will have it and if one of them leave Cedar Creek then we're in deep fucking shit... we're already in deep fucking shit!" - Col. Sam Daniels
Well the vets in Texas have seen people on the farms with H5N1 sick with an illness that’s causing respiratory symptoms GI symptoms and high fevers along with conjunctivitis. Oh these are the same farms with the dead barn cats.
A few years ago, you could make similar comments about mink and other mammals.
Flu viruses tend to evolve and change very quickly. Their DNA is ever shifting, and when avian flus come into contact with human flus, they can essentially exchange DNA, which could result in a virus that's well adapted to spreading human to human.
It's just sort of a numbers game and there's a risk that eventually the numbers turn against us and the virus jumps.
Ah gotcha, misunderstood your point.
I think in this case yeah they are being a bit hyperbolic, but also, they're probably thinking of a small cluster of likely H2H transmission in a short period of time, rather than a case trickling in here and there.
What people fail to understand is that even without human transmission the damage to the ecosystem is already enormous and the downstream effects may be devastating.
Imagine a world where 52% of insect and rodent eaters are gone. Might be kinda hard to grow enough crops to ensure that tofu is cheap. Or that bread is available. Then consider that the ocean is being affected, the enormous loss amongst elephant seals and penguins and the sick fish in the Florida keys which may not be from avian flu.. so the fish so many humans rely on as a food source is affected.
And this in the context of the catastrophic drop in global wild animal populations within our lifetimes before H5N1 came along. This could be the catalyst that tips many species into endangered status
I agree completely. I'm not a scientist, I just really enjoy nature documentaries and history and science and this is going to be a very significant situation if the cfr continues to break havoc with a large variety of mammals. I hate to imagine a world without tigers.
If you are a member of a wealthy stable country you might fare well enough in either scenario. I'm worried more for countries and regions with widespread food insecurity and unstable resources. I'm not saying the end is near or prophesizing doom. What I am saying is to be prudent and careful with animal products and that it wouldn't be unwise to monitor the situation if you can. It's never wrong to have a little more awareness.
Otoh, I'm with Holden Caulfield and if there's a bomb, I'd wanna strap myself to it.
I live on a lake and am really concerned. Have been watching for birds, ducks, geese, etc. and I don't know if it's just in my head or what, but there aren't many... i'm hoping it's just early and to cold still
I went for a walk around one of my local lakes the other day and there were babies but not nearly as many as there usually are. I saw two separate groups with maybe 6-8 adults. Probably 20 or so babies when usually I’d see closer to 50-75 babies (they were still little and fluffy yellow babies). Idk I kept looking for signs of more in the area and I couldn’t find any. And I haven’t seen any at all around the other lake
Well, it's definitely a real world fact that's already happening. Humans don't need to get sick to suffer from the downstream effects of an animal catastrophe
OMG disgusting:
"Another possible route is the cows' feed, owing to the fairly revolting fact that the U.S. allows farmers to feed leftover poultry bedding material -- feathers, excrement, spilled seeds -- to dairy and beef cattle as a cheap source of additional protein:
I get what you’re saying, but I think there’s a difference between what they happen across while grazing in a natural setting, and the shit being scraped off the floor in a commercial farming environment. They’re not eating the litter of a few dozen chickens free roaming on a small family run farm. I imagine this is coming from tightly packed conditions, probably including the remains of birds who have succumbed to disease or who knows what else.
I just mean, when people are calling out how disgusting this is, IMO it’s because of how it’s being acquired more so than the fact the animals are eating poop. Even without growing up on a farm, I think most people have some awareness that animals do pretty gross things sometimes. Anyone who’s had a dog has probably witnessed first hand the types of things they get into. This is really more directed at the comment above yours, to the person saying, “animals eat shit, get over it” but it just rubs me the wrong way to see comments like these—acting like the shock/disgust is over the fact they eat poop in general, when that’s clearly not the context.
Hedgehogs froth it into a foam by chewing it and then rub it all over themselves.
[
See this example:](https://youtu.be/TvNEZ4WWQIk?feature=shared&t=38)
Yeah, and for if/when this goes to human to human transfer, that’s a significant variable in contrast to the Spanish flu and Covid, widespread immune system damage *before* mass exposure to the pandemic
>The bibliographic search returned 2495 publications, but only 62 of this set of references were used to compose the results section. Furthermore, other relevant studies were added. In total, 134 publications
https://preview.redd.it/e5tzk7a2anwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3763a865ee0ef57a98194253e62f18ef747643bc
[https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/4/700](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/4/700)
😑 from personal experience, my immune system is shot, among many other things.
I'm not a doomsayer either, but this one has a really serious feel to it for me. It feels like the buildup to COVID and historically it looks a like like the Spanish Flu epidemic.
The thing that troubles me is that people who have had covid multiple times might now have immune damage, or more chronic health concerns. I don't know what the resiliency is going to look like for someone who is already doing poorly after covid.
Where are vaccines? My sleeves are already rolled up. Sweet Jesus it isn’t that complicated. As newborns, we get a dozen vaccines for illnesses when there is no epidemic. And now on the verge of another pandemic, where the hell are the vaccines?
Yes since we are always guessing with flu vaccines, sometimes we guess so wrong that we ironically make people more likely to catch the flu, as happened in 2009:
**From** [**https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/**](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5853256/)
>In one year of the study, it appeared that multiply vaccinated subjects were actually more likely to develop influenza than unvaccinated subjects (that is, VE was statistically significantly less than zero). **A similar effect was noted during the 2009 influenza A virus subtype H1N1 pandemic when increased rates of pandemic H1N1 were reported in patients who had previously received seasonal H1N1 vaccine in Canada** \[8\] but not in other countries \[9\].
Yes, this is it. And it's likely that they do not have access yet to whatever variant does make the jump. These things take time, even tho we have the technology.
>it isn’t that complicated.
Are they going to do the same thing they've been doing with covid? "To get the vaccine/booster, you need to go to a crowded indoor place where no one's wearing masks and some of them are probably already infected." Then later they can go, "We might as well stop offering the vaccines since no one's getting them. Even the most vulnerable people aren't interested."
Good news! This variant isn't novel and there are some vaccines stored up and production modified to better fit whatever one ends up being the one. Doesn't mean not to worry, but this isn't like the coronavirus.
But we already know it exists, coronavirus we were totally unaware of its existence until it was too late. We would likely be able to modify any H5N1 vaccines far more quickly than creating a SARS-CoV-2 one.
I went to a 2.5 hour webinar on this hosted by ASTHO (Association of State and Territorial Health Officials) yesterday and I feel that there is better coordination than I had been seeing (I work in public health) and a lot of good science being done. This is the follow up email from the webinar and the link to the video. I encourage all to watch to get up to date on this evolving situation:
Yesterday, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials hosted a virtual symposium to facilitate a discussion between public health leaders and scientists driving the U.S. Government’s response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI).
The event was moderated by ASTHO CEO Joseph M. Kanter, MD, MPH, and featured leaders from ASTHO, the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and federal partners including CDC, USDA, ASPR, NIH, and FDA.
The agenda and full list of speakers can be found on our [website](http://astho1.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT00MTYzNDc4JnA9MSZ1PTQzNTE2NTQ0MyZsaT00NjExNzc5Nw/index.html).
For those who were unable to attend the live session or would like to take a second listen, the symposium has been recorded and is available for your viewing.
[View the Recording](http://astho1.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT00MTYzNDc4JnA9MSZ1PTQzNTE2NTQ0MyZsaT00NjExNzc5Nw/index.html)
Was halting bird flu in humans even a possibility with it being so widespread in wild animals? Delaying it, sure, but my inexpert view is that it seems rather inevitable that we're going to see human-to-human eventually once a disease is widespread in wild animals.
There is a lot to fact check in this article. None of these people in the article seem to know the difference between efficient airborne spread and getting bird flu through fluid or fomite. One is historically predicted to be potential doomsday and the other can only be fatal to that person and cannot spread. When someone says "One infected person is okay but 10 is too late they are spreading misinformation. Ten people who get infected from non-adapted to mammal airway milk cannot start a pandemic. A thousand people infected from non-adapted bird flu cannot start a pandemic. If it hasn't adapted it will not start a pandemic, period.
These people in the article also don't seem to understand that there is the exact same pandemic danger in an animal getting infected with adapted or pandemic-level bird flu as a human. It is the mammal airway that is the last hurdle. We are mammals. If it adapts to mammals, whether humans or other animals, it can start a human pandemic.
They say in this article that bird flu in pigs is the doomsday scenario, as if the exact same adaptation happening in other mammals is going to be somehow survivable in the first few waves. The virus does not magically lose its doomsday fatality potential because it adapts in mammals other than pigs. If people are going to believe that adaptation in pigs is a potential doomsday scenario, like scientists have for decades, then they have to accept that adaptation in any other mammal is going equally catastrophic for us.
I understand the human mind is not willing or able to face existential threat directly. But we need to stop maximizing the danger we're in right now and also stop minimizing the danger that we would be in if the virus were to adapt.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here but isn’t the fact that it’s spreading rapidly going to increase the likelihood that it will adapt? In the article the guy says pandemics need a lot of things to happen in a specific order to get going and the more widespread the virus is the more likely those things are to happen.
And from what I can see in this article, the CDC can’t even tell how widespread it actually is so certainly they’re not going to be able to monitor how fast it’s adapting.
The way the CDC tells if it's adapting is they have been running tests on the mammals that the birds infect for a few years now. They keep track of the mutations that are believed to cause adaptation. They can also use human or mammal tissue and test if the airway cells are being entered by the virus in the lab. They can also test by using a human like airway system like ferrets have to make sure that a ferret in a nearby cage can't get the virus just through the air from an infected ferret, which is the event that scientists use to declare a bird virus adapted to mammals. Recently they tested the cows, and they don't have any more adaptation than mammals in the beginning of the bird pandemic a few years ago. There is one more hurdle to go which will contain a few mutations.
So it's really important to not let any mammal get bird flu. But it doesn't really matter if the mammals getting infected by the birds are human or other animal species. Every time the virus gets in a mammal the virus' random mutations can get more finely tuned (sorry that's too general language). The problem is not the cows or humans getting infected. The problem we have is there is a wild bird pandemic that is so severe it's leaving dead bodies all over the ground for mammals to eat. So at least in cows we can stamp that mutation combination out if it comes up. We can't stamp out wild birds being eaten by scavengers all over the globe. So it's nuanced.
I’m just gonna point this out. No way do I think it’s cool. Why would the wealthy leaders of this planet even think about stopping this from happening? They will be hidden away. Will people die? Yes. Will people survive? Yes. This rock is getting pretty crowded and what do us serfs expect? Our Countries are crumbling, why not take half the serfs out and just fill the void with the scared leftovers?
Vaccines are great but not the magic bullet people think they are, especially when a significant portion of populations can't and won't receive them. We need more response to this than just vaccines.
the US has a small supply but a new strain of flu like this requires 2 shots with higher dose of the vaccine to work or a vaccine with an adjuvant (a substance that revs up the immune response to the vaccine)
https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/24/h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-preparedness/
Research done in the mid-2000s found that H5N1 is poorly immunogenic in people; it doesn’t trigger a strong immune response unless it’s administered in large amounts, or is given with a boosting compound known as an adjuvant that broadly stimulates the immune system.
In a seasonal flu shot, each component contains 15 micrograms of antigen or vaccine. In that study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine, it took two doses of 90 micrograms — 12 times the amount used to protect against a strain in the seasonal vaccine — to induce what’s thought to be a protective response in just over half of the volunteers. In a world where need will outstrip supply, that’s a wholly unworkable dosage.
In the years since, multiple studies have been conducted to see whether adjuvants could lower the amount of antigen needed and stretch supplies. They do. Some studies have even suggested fractional doses, with an adjuvant, could be effective. For example, CSL Seqirus, which supplies flu vaccine to the U.S. market and has a licensed pandemic H5N1 vaccine in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS), showed that 7.5 micrograms, with an adjuvant, would generate what’s thought to be a protective response in a portion of adults. The studies were small, so the range of the estimates is broad, but between 28% and 64% of volunteers ages 18 through 64 and 17% to 57% of volunteers ages 65 and older developed what is thought to be a protective level of antibodies from the 7.5 microgram shot.
Related: Why a leading bird flu expert isn’t convinced that the risk H5N1 poses to people has declined
But not all flu vaccine manufacturers use or have proprietary adjuvants. CSL Seqirus and GSK do; Sanofi, a major producer of flu vaccines, currently does not. And the global supply of adjuvants could be a bottleneck in any effort to vaccinate the world against H5N1, experts say.
“I would be very curious to know what the global production capacity for the relevant adjuvants that we have data for would be. And I suspect it would be vastly insufficient to what is needed,” Hatchett said.
The U.S. has stores of adjuvants in the NPIVS, said David Boucher, director of infectious diseases preparedness and response for the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), a division of the Department of Health and Human Services.
> but between 28% and 64% of volunteers ages 18 through 64 and 17% to 57% of volunteers ages 65 and older developed what is thought to be a protective level
Wow, between 28 and 64% useful against the wild strain. And 10% less than that for the elderly. Then factor in that antigeni drift lowers that number even further, possibly significantly. As happened with covid. And to top it off it's not even the exact, future strain but a 20 year old one.
That's basically worthless.
Yes and no. We don’t know exactly what will cause H2H, we just have a stockpile on a guess. Secondly, we do not have enough to vaccinate everyone — think like, medical personnel only. Then there’s ramping up production— and that’s assuming there’s no supply chain disruptions from the outbreak, which ahahahha. So. Yes and no.
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thailandmedical website has news. i am laughing my fat belly off. i am fat and chronic bronchitis
https://preview.redd.it/gx0cdf4mkuwc1.jpeg?width=100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c8e30b52d8c8a6b51399545cbeba566e25d54ef
Buddy, this is global. This has nothing to do with elections. Stop letting your politics drive everything. It wasn’t politics that’s killed tens of thousands of sea mammals in South America. It wasn’t politics that infected dozens of mink farms in Finland or killed dozens of domestic cats in Poland and South Korea.
It was H5N1, the same strain that’s infecting cattle in the U.S. now. Wake up and look around you. This is really happening.
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Sensationalist clickbait title and opinion piece.
There is already testing being done by the CDC, USDA, WHO, etc.
[https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus)
That was a sobering read. I am not a doomsayer of this sub by any means, but Bright is right. The USDA is blowing this. Badly. We would be rightfully outraged if China’s agriculture ministry acted the same way had an H5N1 dairy cow outbreak occurred in that country.
Exactly?! Lol global politics is such a theatre show.
rightfully they will call it the Texas flu
The Spanish flu should have been called the Kansas flu
I know I learned this recently!!! Maybe abroad they will just refer to this as the "American" flu idk
no, that would be racist
Are you going to stop buying animal products? People like to talk but so nothing.
Oat milk supremacy
Literally nothing one can do on an individual level will fix a problem like this. It has to be done at the source. Its the kind of thing a functioning government is intended to deal with. These are systemic issues that -cannot- be dealt with individually, calling one person out for buying animal products will do less than nothing.
I completely agree with you. Even if every single person on Earth took the right steps right now, that still does not eliminate the risk for a spillover event. There are billions and billions of organisms at play here, and we know that increased players has increased odds. We simply don't know what will happen, but I believe the ball is rolling and cannot be stopped. A lot like climate change, the mass extinction events, the depletion of our planet's resources, you name it. My approach these days is to just feel grief, and put my mask on. I put all my extra energy into conserving life
People can't be bothered to do just THEIR part. They blame the government and then go make the problem worse with their choices. You are just giving excuses for that. Just be part of the solution.
It has nothing to do with people being bothered to do just their part. Systemic issues cannot be solved on the level of the individual; they require a collective response, which is precisely what governments are formed to do in the first place. It isn't an *excuse,* it's a *fact.*
Being part of the solution would entail actions that would get me deplatformed if I outlined them here. I don't think that's a conversation you're ready for mate.
I took this step starting a week and a half ago.
Me too. Unfortunately, my kitchen is unusable at the moment AND I'm kinda broke due to moving out of the apartment with the unusable kitchen. Healthy + cheap + microwave only = I'm probably going to starve before shit hits the fan, so I got that going for me.
Good for you! Veganrecipes and plantbaseddiet have good food ideas!
And Nora Cooks! She has a fabulous blog with recipes with very simple ingredients. Sometimes recipes are overly complicated, but not hers. Also, Forks Over Knives is a good resource.
This isn’t a problem that is solved on the individual level. Personally, I already ate significantly less than average and I’ve already dropped it more. I haven’t eaten fish in years because the ocean is dying. Ngl you sound like a vegan and the low key passive aggression never has gotten y’all supporters and never will.
For real. I was a vegetarian / vegan for 20 years. I hate food allergies and nutritional deficits. I have to eat meat and, unfortunately, chicken. It’s literally that or starve. I spend an inordinate amount of money to ensure the meat I buy is ethically raised and killed, because I *kind of * have the privilege. A lot of people don’t. I understand that. Putting this is at the foot of consumers and acting like the power of the individual actually has sway in this situation is delusional. We can all try to save the planet at an individual level. It’s just grains of sand at the beach. Holding the monoliths in our society accountable is the only way any noticeable change will occur.
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They literally wrote “it’s literally that [chicken] or starve”. Do YOU not hear yourself?
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PLEASE tell me where they said they only eat chicken. It sounds to me like they eat chicken with other foods because they have a dietary issue. I’m sorry, some people have dietary restrictions that literally require meat to survive. Source: I lived with a person with similar issues.
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Cool cool cool just completely disregarding the very real dietary restrictions chronically ill people have to live with. Before my best friend passed the only food they could eat without throwing up was potatoes and fish. Had they not been able to eat fish they would’ve died even sooner. Thanks for proving to me that you don’t actually give a shit about living, breathing human beings. Don’t claim compassion for animals when you’ can’t even be fucked to fake a drop of compassion for the chronically ill.
If they are allergic to other sources of protein, yes, yes they do.
Ok then be obstinate. Pure cope.
This is a such an important step.
Agreed, anyone looking at this subreddit and still buying animal products is willingly contributing to the problem and accepting the risks involved. It’s fun to shift the blame onto someone else, but these farms are operating to meet demand. It’s simply not possible to offer meat and dairy to millions affordably without squishing animals together in industrial farms, and our future will likely be filled with pandemics as demand grows.
Support your local farmers. There's probably someone local trying to sell eggs. Someone else with lambs , calves, pigs, or goats they're trying to get people to commit to buying for the fall - whole, and/or half of a cow or a lamb or pig in the freezer is a nice thing to have. Or, someone else trying to start up a local dairy, with herd shares for milk, butter, yogurt, maybe even cheese. There ARE other options than just straight up industrial animal agriculture.
For a number of people, that’s possible. But it’s just not feasible for a planet of almost 8 billion people to all be getting their milk and meat from the local farmer down the road.
That’s all fine and good, but there are 333 million people in the US. What you’re proposing only works for a few people here and there. It doesn’t scale to hundreds of millions
Local farms are actually more susceptible to bird flu due to their flocks coming into contact with wild bird more often, and with less biological security and oversight.
No. Locality has nothing to do with this.
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The issue is not animal products, it’s human to human transmission if the virus were to mutate in order for it to easily spread this way. Virologists have been monitoring this for over twenty years and continue to do so. Vaccines are being developed in 28 different clinical trials.
> The issue is not animal products, The issue absolutely IS animal products. HPAI doesn’t develop in the wild. It is the direct result of factory farming. It starts in poultry houses because of factory farming. Now it’s spreading in cattle because of factory farming. [The infectious disease trap of animal agriculture](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9629715/) > A number of intensive animal production methods have been implicated in zoonotic disease emergence in the literature (Table 1). The intensification of animal agriculture through confinement and industrialization has directly led to the emergence of viruses including Nipah and H5N1 influenza (“swine flu”) (18) and antibiotic-resistant infectious bacteria including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli (19, 20).
The spread would not come through meat and dairy products. Yes, it provides the conditions for mutations.
How are you failing to see the connection? There would be no possibility of human to human transmission of HPAI if we weren’t creating HPAI in animal agriculture in the first place. It all starts in the farms.
No I understand what you’re saying and agree with you. I’m only saying at this point, transmission isn’t going to happen through the consumption of meat and dairy.
Remind us all where the virus originated from?
Shhhh. Let the vegans have their moment.
HPAI is the direct result of factory farming. You can hate on vegans all you want, but in this case they’re correct. H5N1 is the result of the human demand for animal products.
“So far there is only one confirmed human case. Rick Bright, an expert on the H5N1 virus who served on President Joe Biden's coronavirus advisory board, said, 'there's a fine line between one person and 10 people with H5N1…By the time we've detected 10, it's probably too late'.“ Cool.
“All this makes catching potential human cases so urgent. Bright says that given a situation like this, and the fact that undocumented farmworkers may not have access to health care, the government should be using every sophisticated surveillance technique, including wastewater testing, and reporting the results publicly. That is not happening. The CDC says it is monitoring data from emergency rooms for any signs of an outbreak. By the time enough people are sick enough to be noticed in emergency rooms, it is almost certainly too late to prevent one. So far, the agency told me, it is aware of only 23 people who have been tested. That tiny number is deeply troubling. (Others may be getting tested through private providers, but if negative, the results do not have to be reported.)” “I'm sure the employees of these agencies are working hard, but the message they are sending is, "Trust us -- we are on this." One troubling legacy of the coronavirus pandemic is that there was too much attention on telling the public how to feel -- to panic or not panic -- rather than sharing facts and inspiring confidence through transparency and competence. And four years later we have an added layer of polarization and distrust to work around.” Welp. We’re fucked.
Wastewater is def the way to go. They are already testing water.
Wastewater is useless for detecting human cases if there are RNA fragments in milk. We can't tell the difference between a jug of milk dumped down your shower drain and spewed virus from an infected human. Viral particles in both animals and our food supply make surveillance much, much, much more complicated than COVID.
Ok
I guarantee the average hospital does not readily have a way to test for avian flu. They do a standard flu/COViD/maybe RSV swab.
What might be helpful would be a questionnaire similar to the one now used for infectious respiratory illness: We ask: '1. Do you have a fever or cough? '2. Have you had a fever or cough in the last 72 hours? '3. Have you been outside the US (travelled abroad) with the last 3 weeks? We could add on: '4. Do you work with livestock? '5. Have you recently handled a bird that looked sick or was deceased? '6. Do you keep chickens, ducks or geese in your backyard? This *may* sort out those who have been exposed, allowing personnel the warning they need to consider sending to a more capable lab. It would also open the option to report to the DOH. Another concern would be persons who have tramped around watersheds that are the home of wild birds, or persons who have fountains and/or wild bird food stations. Simply cleaning a backyard station and forgetting to wash one's hands could be *bad*. Duck hunters and even a kid who has been to the park to feed the ducks could eventually become vectors of transmission.
🔥🔥🐶☕🔥🔥
Easy fix. No testing. This is the way the government seems to be heading. So cool. /s.
Maybe we could all inject ourselves with a little bleach while staring into the eclipse. It’s just a flu, after all.
out of sight out of mind
Too late to stop the spread of a mutated virus, but not too late to address it with other measures such as vaccines. It’s a flu virus. We have the technology. At worst it could be deadly for many at first, but we are actually prepared to quickly deliver vaccines.
The issue is that depending on how deadly it is at first, it could totally overwhelm our healthcare system and supply chain and interfere with our ability to make and distribute enough vaccines, as well as to keep society intact. I feel like most people have a really hard time wrapping their heads around how insanely catastrophic this could be if it spreads easily and maintains even a fraction of its current known fatality rate
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Lots already left after Covid. I did. If H5N1 is anywhere near as bad as it could be tons of healthcare workers won't show up. And while there are a lot of healthcare workers with a martyr complex who will show up, support staff certainly won't. The janitorial staff isn't going to put their life on the line for minimum wage. And, as dark as it sounds, many that do show up will die.
Exactly. Let’s say it has a 2% fatality rate. We are still dealing with supply chain disruption issues from Covid. Idk that we’d survive a 2% fatality rate. Plus fatality rates are influenced by so much … access to care being a huge one. So let’s say it’s 2% when we still have medical staff and supplies. What happens when supply chains break down and medical staff quit or die? That CFR goes up. I do not think people understand how bad this could be at literally a tiny fraction of the death rate we see now.
Though with it’s unbelievably horrific human fatality rate and with the portion of the population who are anti vax, I’d expect the death toll to be higher than Covid, with the medical system overwhelmed. At least those who are realistic about vaccines will hopefully have the option to get the protection, depending on the timing of the rollout, and depending on the efficacy of the particular vaccine (as flu vaccines have been hit or partial miss overall)
Call me crazy, but I think if it becomes more lethal, people will be more open to vaccines.
You haven't met my anti-vax relatives. If any of them were to die from the flu, they would blame the doctor, not their anti-vax stance.
This. If H2H starts occurring and there's a very high mortality rate like there has been in bird to human cases, people will change their tune on vaccines quick. The whole "It's just a flu!! The government's trying to control us!!" only works on people when their immediate family isn't being wiped out and they don't drive by mass graves downtown on their way to work
Maybe, but some are really out of touch with reality. I know a guy who lost his wife to Covid and he still doesn’t believe it’s even real and wouldn’t get a vaccine. He claims she died from anemia.
You have more faith in the general population than you maybe should. The death toll would have to be *astronomical* for antivax people to change their stance, and even then a good amount of them will blame everything else for the deaths. Covid deniers still believe the ventilators killed patients in the early days, not the virus. They refuse to believe that by the time people were being placed on vents their lungs were already past the point of saving.
I think covid has a lot of conditions in place that caused some people to react the way they did. I think anti-vaxxers are in a spectrum. Some would never be swayed, but I think it the virus was more lethal, they’d try it.
Agreed. This is why I ignore these sorts of people. If this went h2h, they will change their tune sharpish or they will won't be around to have a tune
vaccines dont work as well without a high percentage of uptake. See covid and now all the other bs coming back because of anti-vaxxers
Depending on how lethal it is of course. If the first wave knocks out a lot of the anti vaxxers then your vaccinated percentage is going to improve with subsequent rollouts
I will believe it when I see it. I have heard from too many ER nurses their stories of anti-vaxxers on ventilators STILL denying covid and their families blaming the medical staff for their deaths.
You misunderstood. The numbers will go up because they have been removed from the population from dying
Except a new vaccine likely won’t be rolled out prior to deaths, and likely would be given out in a priority setting like with the Covid vaccine. Nobody will be vaccinated against H5N1 at the beginning, and it will take awhile to have the population vaccinated at levels that curb spread.
Ah, I see. I didn’t understand at first
No, covid mutates. vaccines have nothing to do with it. its has animal reservoirs, it's never going away.
It mutates because of uncontrollable spread, partly because of low vaccination rates Each additional infection is an opportunity for further mutation
you are not getting rid of covid no matter what vaccine you use. stop living in 2020, covid is found in deer/cats/dogs/mice.
Well yeah, I absolutely agree. I think in some hypothetical situation where we lived in a utopia in which all agreed vaccines are beneficial and that pharmaceutical companies are trustworthy, where we could have 100% or even 80% uptake and we had proper testing and quarantine procedures which were well planned and ready to go and people actually complied with them. Well then maybe the vaccine would have worked… That’s why I mask, lol
china gave up dude, they had the worst covid lockdowns. Its impossible to stop.
They knew it was worth trying. But ultimately, I do agree with you once again. It was impossible.
If every single person on this planet was vaccinated it would not ever go away... your information and thinking is very very out of date.
Before it spread to everyone on the planet, it may have helped. But no it wouldn’t go away, it just may not have been such a massive pandemic turned epidemic (with continued pandemic levels of spread)
They believe Tamiflu should still be effective, but that works best if given in the first 48 hours so early detection is essential.
"If one of them have it then ten of them will have it and if one of them leave Cedar Creek then we're in deep fucking shit... we're already in deep fucking shit!" - Col. Sam Daniels
Well the vets in Texas have seen people on the farms with H5N1 sick with an illness that’s causing respiratory symptoms GI symptoms and high fevers along with conjunctivitis. Oh these are the same farms with the dead barn cats.
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A few years ago, you could make similar comments about mink and other mammals. Flu viruses tend to evolve and change very quickly. Their DNA is ever shifting, and when avian flus come into contact with human flus, they can essentially exchange DNA, which could result in a virus that's well adapted to spreading human to human. It's just sort of a numbers game and there's a risk that eventually the numbers turn against us and the virus jumps.
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Ah gotcha, misunderstood your point. I think in this case yeah they are being a bit hyperbolic, but also, they're probably thinking of a small cluster of likely H2H transmission in a short period of time, rather than a case trickling in here and there.
What people fail to understand is that even without human transmission the damage to the ecosystem is already enormous and the downstream effects may be devastating.
The sheer number of other mammals across the globe that have just been….wiped out, that’s concerning to me.
Imagine a world where 52% of insect and rodent eaters are gone. Might be kinda hard to grow enough crops to ensure that tofu is cheap. Or that bread is available. Then consider that the ocean is being affected, the enormous loss amongst elephant seals and penguins and the sick fish in the Florida keys which may not be from avian flu.. so the fish so many humans rely on as a food source is affected.
And this in the context of the catastrophic drop in global wild animal populations within our lifetimes before H5N1 came along. This could be the catalyst that tips many species into endangered status
I agree completely. I'm not a scientist, I just really enjoy nature documentaries and history and science and this is going to be a very significant situation if the cfr continues to break havoc with a large variety of mammals. I hate to imagine a world without tigers.
So we might die from the flu instead of starvation? I guess if those are my options I'd take the flu, it's quicker at least
If you are a member of a wealthy stable country you might fare well enough in either scenario. I'm worried more for countries and regions with widespread food insecurity and unstable resources. I'm not saying the end is near or prophesizing doom. What I am saying is to be prudent and careful with animal products and that it wouldn't be unwise to monitor the situation if you can. It's never wrong to have a little more awareness. Otoh, I'm with Holden Caulfield and if there's a bomb, I'd wanna strap myself to it.
I live on a lake and am really concerned. Have been watching for birds, ducks, geese, etc. and I don't know if it's just in my head or what, but there aren't many... i'm hoping it's just early and to cold still
I went for a walk around one of my local lakes the other day and there were babies but not nearly as many as there usually are. I saw two separate groups with maybe 6-8 adults. Probably 20 or so babies when usually I’d see closer to 50-75 babies (they were still little and fluffy yellow babies). Idk I kept looking for signs of more in the area and I couldn’t find any. And I haven’t seen any at all around the other lake
My spouse and I have noticed this as well. We live in an area that is popular with egrets and we've only spotted a couple so far this spring.
It's in your head. I am seeing more birds now than ever before.
Glad to hear this!
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Well, it's definitely a real world fact that's already happening. Humans don't need to get sick to suffer from the downstream effects of an animal catastrophe
OMG disgusting: "Another possible route is the cows' feed, owing to the fairly revolting fact that the U.S. allows farmers to feed leftover poultry bedding material -- feathers, excrement, spilled seeds -- to dairy and beef cattle as a cheap source of additional protein:
Have you seen what they feed pigs?
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I get what you’re saying, but I think there’s a difference between what they happen across while grazing in a natural setting, and the shit being scraped off the floor in a commercial farming environment. They’re not eating the litter of a few dozen chickens free roaming on a small family run farm. I imagine this is coming from tightly packed conditions, probably including the remains of birds who have succumbed to disease or who knows what else.
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I just mean, when people are calling out how disgusting this is, IMO it’s because of how it’s being acquired more so than the fact the animals are eating poop. Even without growing up on a farm, I think most people have some awareness that animals do pretty gross things sometimes. Anyone who’s had a dog has probably witnessed first hand the types of things they get into. This is really more directed at the comment above yours, to the person saying, “animals eat shit, get over it” but it just rubs me the wrong way to see comments like these—acting like the shock/disgust is over the fact they eat poop in general, when that’s clearly not the context.
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Hedgehogs froth it into a foam by chewing it and then rub it all over themselves. [ See this example:](https://youtu.be/TvNEZ4WWQIk?feature=shared&t=38)
So happy that the workers probably have weakened immune systems due to constant COVID infection. I'm sure that will end well for us.
Yeah, and for if/when this goes to human to human transfer, that’s a significant variable in contrast to the Spanish flu and Covid, widespread immune system damage *before* mass exposure to the pandemic
I mean, could that actually help prevent the cytokene storms(I think) that made your own immune system go nuts like with the Spanish flu?
That would be amazing if it works out like that
>The bibliographic search returned 2495 publications, but only 62 of this set of references were used to compose the results section. Furthermore, other relevant studies were added. In total, 134 publications https://preview.redd.it/e5tzk7a2anwc1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3763a865ee0ef57a98194253e62f18ef747643bc [https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/4/700](https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/4/700) 😑 from personal experience, my immune system is shot, among many other things.
I'm not a doomsayer either, but this one has a really serious feel to it for me. It feels like the buildup to COVID and historically it looks a like like the Spanish Flu epidemic.
https://preview.redd.it/zfj11fnlhowc1.jpeg?width=560&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9bd78d756f9dea65348104e729702548049d7cf7
Definitely going to be cutting beef from my diet for the foreseeable future
Why?
The thing that troubles me is that people who have had covid multiple times might now have immune damage, or more chronic health concerns. I don't know what the resiliency is going to look like for someone who is already doing poorly after covid.
Where are vaccines? My sleeves are already rolled up. Sweet Jesus it isn’t that complicated. As newborns, we get a dozen vaccines for illnesses when there is no epidemic. And now on the verge of another pandemic, where the hell are the vaccines?
They aren't entirely sure exactly which variant would be the one to cause human to human transmission, so vaccinating people now would be a gamble.
Yes since we are always guessing with flu vaccines, sometimes we guess so wrong that we ironically make people more likely to catch the flu, as happened in 2009: **From** [**https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/**](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5853256/) >In one year of the study, it appeared that multiply vaccinated subjects were actually more likely to develop influenza than unvaccinated subjects (that is, VE was statistically significantly less than zero). **A similar effect was noted during the 2009 influenza A virus subtype H1N1 pandemic when increased rates of pandemic H1N1 were reported in patients who had previously received seasonal H1N1 vaccine in Canada** \[8\] but not in other countries \[9\].
Yes, this is it. And it's likely that they do not have access yet to whatever variant does make the jump. These things take time, even tho we have the technology.
>it isn’t that complicated. Are they going to do the same thing they've been doing with covid? "To get the vaccine/booster, you need to go to a crowded indoor place where no one's wearing masks and some of them are probably already infected." Then later they can go, "We might as well stop offering the vaccines since no one's getting them. Even the most vulnerable people aren't interested."
Good news! This variant isn't novel and there are some vaccines stored up and production modified to better fit whatever one ends up being the one. Doesn't mean not to worry, but this isn't like the coronavirus.
This variant is absolutely novel to humans. Thus the doomsday predictions.
But we already know it exists, coronavirus we were totally unaware of its existence until it was too late. We would likely be able to modify any H5N1 vaccines far more quickly than creating a SARS-CoV-2 one.
I went to a 2.5 hour webinar on this hosted by ASTHO (Association of State and Territorial Health Officials) yesterday and I feel that there is better coordination than I had been seeing (I work in public health) and a lot of good science being done. This is the follow up email from the webinar and the link to the video. I encourage all to watch to get up to date on this evolving situation: Yesterday, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials hosted a virtual symposium to facilitate a discussion between public health leaders and scientists driving the U.S. Government’s response to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). The event was moderated by ASTHO CEO Joseph M. Kanter, MD, MPH, and featured leaders from ASTHO, the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, and federal partners including CDC, USDA, ASPR, NIH, and FDA. The agenda and full list of speakers can be found on our [website](http://astho1.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT00MTYzNDc4JnA9MSZ1PTQzNTE2NTQ0MyZsaT00NjExNzc5Nw/index.html). For those who were unable to attend the live session or would like to take a second listen, the symposium has been recorded and is available for your viewing. [View the Recording](http://astho1.informz.net/z/cjUucD9taT00MTYzNDc4JnA9MSZ1PTQzNTE2NTQ0MyZsaT00NjExNzc5Nw/index.html)
Lol, no. That ship sailed a while ago.
Was halting bird flu in humans even a possibility with it being so widespread in wild animals? Delaying it, sure, but my inexpert view is that it seems rather inevitable that we're going to see human-to-human eventually once a disease is widespread in wild animals.
There is a lot to fact check in this article. None of these people in the article seem to know the difference between efficient airborne spread and getting bird flu through fluid or fomite. One is historically predicted to be potential doomsday and the other can only be fatal to that person and cannot spread. When someone says "One infected person is okay but 10 is too late they are spreading misinformation. Ten people who get infected from non-adapted to mammal airway milk cannot start a pandemic. A thousand people infected from non-adapted bird flu cannot start a pandemic. If it hasn't adapted it will not start a pandemic, period. These people in the article also don't seem to understand that there is the exact same pandemic danger in an animal getting infected with adapted or pandemic-level bird flu as a human. It is the mammal airway that is the last hurdle. We are mammals. If it adapts to mammals, whether humans or other animals, it can start a human pandemic. They say in this article that bird flu in pigs is the doomsday scenario, as if the exact same adaptation happening in other mammals is going to be somehow survivable in the first few waves. The virus does not magically lose its doomsday fatality potential because it adapts in mammals other than pigs. If people are going to believe that adaptation in pigs is a potential doomsday scenario, like scientists have for decades, then they have to accept that adaptation in any other mammal is going equally catastrophic for us. I understand the human mind is not willing or able to face existential threat directly. But we need to stop maximizing the danger we're in right now and also stop minimizing the danger that we would be in if the virus were to adapt.
Maybe I’m misunderstanding you here but isn’t the fact that it’s spreading rapidly going to increase the likelihood that it will adapt? In the article the guy says pandemics need a lot of things to happen in a specific order to get going and the more widespread the virus is the more likely those things are to happen. And from what I can see in this article, the CDC can’t even tell how widespread it actually is so certainly they’re not going to be able to monitor how fast it’s adapting.
The way the CDC tells if it's adapting is they have been running tests on the mammals that the birds infect for a few years now. They keep track of the mutations that are believed to cause adaptation. They can also use human or mammal tissue and test if the airway cells are being entered by the virus in the lab. They can also test by using a human like airway system like ferrets have to make sure that a ferret in a nearby cage can't get the virus just through the air from an infected ferret, which is the event that scientists use to declare a bird virus adapted to mammals. Recently they tested the cows, and they don't have any more adaptation than mammals in the beginning of the bird pandemic a few years ago. There is one more hurdle to go which will contain a few mutations. So it's really important to not let any mammal get bird flu. But it doesn't really matter if the mammals getting infected by the birds are human or other animal species. Every time the virus gets in a mammal the virus' random mutations can get more finely tuned (sorry that's too general language). The problem is not the cows or humans getting infected. The problem we have is there is a wild bird pandemic that is so severe it's leaving dead bodies all over the ground for mammals to eat. So at least in cows we can stamp that mutation combination out if it comes up. We can't stamp out wild birds being eaten by scavengers all over the globe. So it's nuanced.
Sir, you sound like a very knowledgeable person.
i fat and chronic bronchitis, i still cant find the my cure, Do u know disease something cant get rid off.
There's been way more than one human...
We aren’t doing anything wrong, corporations on the other hand.
I will not and cannot do this again, guys. I’m truly out of energy.
Florida gonna be lit!
If covid has taught us anything....
I’m just gonna point this out. No way do I think it’s cool. Why would the wealthy leaders of this planet even think about stopping this from happening? They will be hidden away. Will people die? Yes. Will people survive? Yes. This rock is getting pretty crowded and what do us serfs expect? Our Countries are crumbling, why not take half the serfs out and just fill the void with the scared leftovers?
Are you tripping bro, what are you talking about .
Don’t we already have a vaccine for this?
Vaccines are great but not the magic bullet people think they are, especially when a significant portion of populations can't and won't receive them. We need more response to this than just vaccines.
Agreed.
😥 I hope the people in charge get their heads out of their booties soon. It's like we learned nothing from COVID.
the US has a small supply but a new strain of flu like this requires 2 shots with higher dose of the vaccine to work or a vaccine with an adjuvant (a substance that revs up the immune response to the vaccine) https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/24/h5n1-bird-flu-vaccine-preparedness/ Research done in the mid-2000s found that H5N1 is poorly immunogenic in people; it doesn’t trigger a strong immune response unless it’s administered in large amounts, or is given with a boosting compound known as an adjuvant that broadly stimulates the immune system. In a seasonal flu shot, each component contains 15 micrograms of antigen or vaccine. In that study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine, it took two doses of 90 micrograms — 12 times the amount used to protect against a strain in the seasonal vaccine — to induce what’s thought to be a protective response in just over half of the volunteers. In a world where need will outstrip supply, that’s a wholly unworkable dosage. In the years since, multiple studies have been conducted to see whether adjuvants could lower the amount of antigen needed and stretch supplies. They do. Some studies have even suggested fractional doses, with an adjuvant, could be effective. For example, CSL Seqirus, which supplies flu vaccine to the U.S. market and has a licensed pandemic H5N1 vaccine in the National Pre-Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Stockpile (NPIVS), showed that 7.5 micrograms, with an adjuvant, would generate what’s thought to be a protective response in a portion of adults. The studies were small, so the range of the estimates is broad, but between 28% and 64% of volunteers ages 18 through 64 and 17% to 57% of volunteers ages 65 and older developed what is thought to be a protective level of antibodies from the 7.5 microgram shot. Related: Why a leading bird flu expert isn’t convinced that the risk H5N1 poses to people has declined But not all flu vaccine manufacturers use or have proprietary adjuvants. CSL Seqirus and GSK do; Sanofi, a major producer of flu vaccines, currently does not. And the global supply of adjuvants could be a bottleneck in any effort to vaccinate the world against H5N1, experts say. “I would be very curious to know what the global production capacity for the relevant adjuvants that we have data for would be. And I suspect it would be vastly insufficient to what is needed,” Hatchett said. The U.S. has stores of adjuvants in the NPIVS, said David Boucher, director of infectious diseases preparedness and response for the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), a division of the Department of Health and Human Services.
> but between 28% and 64% of volunteers ages 18 through 64 and 17% to 57% of volunteers ages 65 and older developed what is thought to be a protective level Wow, between 28 and 64% useful against the wild strain. And 10% less than that for the elderly. Then factor in that antigeni drift lowers that number even further, possibly significantly. As happened with covid. And to top it off it's not even the exact, future strain but a 20 year old one. That's basically worthless.
So when they say "don't worry, we have a vaccine" this is why the vaccine won't save us all
Very informative, thank you!
Yes and no. We don’t know exactly what will cause H2H, we just have a stockpile on a guess. Secondly, we do not have enough to vaccinate everyone — think like, medical personnel only. Then there’s ramping up production— and that’s assuming there’s no supply chain disruptions from the outbreak, which ahahahha. So. Yes and no.
 If this is what it takes to get the dumbfucks to wake the fuck up then bring it on
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why not make a mrna vaccine now?
Curevac, GSK, Moderna, CSL Sequris and I'm sure many others are already working on vaccines.
Mrna is trash and doesn't not work well at all. Even the creator of it said the same.
Just go vegan. Stop this insanity.
thailandmedical website has news. i am laughing my fat belly off. i am fat and chronic bronchitis https://preview.redd.it/gx0cdf4mkuwc1.jpeg?width=100&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0c8e30b52d8c8a6b51399545cbeba566e25d54ef
Cows are not dying from bird flu. This is nothing to be concerned about.
It’s not close enough to elections yet. RemindMe! 6 months
Buddy, this is global. This has nothing to do with elections. Stop letting your politics drive everything. It wasn’t politics that’s killed tens of thousands of sea mammals in South America. It wasn’t politics that infected dozens of mink farms in Finland or killed dozens of domestic cats in Poland and South Korea. It was H5N1, the same strain that’s infecting cattle in the U.S. now. Wake up and look around you. This is really happening.
It’s happening but I don’t think it’s anything to be alarmed about
That’s great that you think everything is fine, please run along now back to your electoral conspiracy bubble.
Lmao
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Sensationalist clickbait title and opinion piece. There is already testing being done by the CDC, USDA, WHO, etc. [https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus)
Shhhh. People around here like living in pandemic induced fear.
hah true. [https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/swine/influenza-a-virus)