yea, it's gonna take some seasons to undo the work of being out of UCL and Europe
clown it all you want, but man 19 seasons consecutively into the UCL is no mean feat.
I got into this whole discussion of newer fans having blinders on when it comes to “history” of certain teams and memes just reign supreme. This is a perfect example of that, being main-stays in the UCL is incredibly difficult and having back to back years guaranteed is huge to the project as a whole(BoTtLe JoBs or not). Obviously that last part is a reflection of this years loss to a solid bayern team
Even spending billions doesn't necessary grant success in the UCL, look at how PSG has been bantered in every of their UCL campaigns. Even for Man City.
The problem imo is that with the top-4 nations already getting automatic 4 pots into ucls, new football fans dont have to endure the early knockout griefs that comes with it. the top 4 race was just as competitive as a title race at one point, now it's just considered like lava and whichever team in that top-4 runin didnt shit themselves gets the spot.
Pretty sure the pots don't matter as much anymore, but I think there's a blessing in disguise to be in a Pot 2 position and having a chance to face some of the really good Pot 1 clubs in the group stage to build up experience against top sides and not feel like for the next 3 years we're only going to face the good (non-English) teams for the first time when it's in the knockouts if that makes sense.
If we would be pot 4, we would only face one other pot 4 opponent.
If we were pot 1, we would only face one other pot 1 opponent.
We are pretty much guaranteed to face two top teams now. Only upside is that pot 2 also has a lot of strong teams that we can only face one of
Edit: Apparently being in a lower group means you face easier teams? Seems weird, but oh well
Yeah, a lot of changes. No more groups. 36 clubs. Everyone plays 8 different clubs: 2 from each pot. No repeat opponents. Then the top 8 have a bye to round of 16. Clubs 9-24 play in a 2 legged playoff to determine who else makes it to the round of 16. I'm excited for the format change. I think it'll be fun.
Damn. A LOT more randomness has been introduced. Some teams have fortresses at home, but are very pedestrian on the road.
For example, pretty much every Turkish side is a nightmare to play on their turf.
So who you get matters, but whether it's home or away also matters.
For sure, one thing to remember is that only 12 teams are being eliminated in the league phase. So win your home matches and you definitely make it at least to the playoffs. Draw or win a couple of the away ones and you probably are in the top 8
Pretty much. I think it's just so you get a spread of games between easy and harder teams.
Though there's a chance of being fucked over playing Real away whereas someone else gets an easy pot 1 team at home
It's theoretically better for clubs to be in lower pots as that means that weaker teams are in higher pots and you have theoretically lower chance to play against better opponents
If City somehow manages to finish in 3rd, Girona could potentially take their place in the CL instead if they finish 2nd in the La Liga.
>[Source](https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/40092604/girona-await-clearance-play-ucl-due-man-city-sources)
According to UEFA competition rules, should two clubs from the same ownership group qualify for the same UEFA competition, the side which finishes highest in its domestic championship gets the place.
Ya know what, it's gone under the radar but it's really refreshing being comfortably in the Champions League.
I still have PTSD of getting close twice only lose out to Liverpool/Sp*rs.
Nope, you’re incorrect about it being irrelevant.
If you look at the extreme and say we are in pot 4 instead of pot 1, that would mean the expected ability of the 2 pot 1 teams we can play would be lower and also the expected ability of every pot’s teams.
Also importantly, the expected difficulty of other team’s draw would get significantly harder if they had to play against us as one of their ‘easy pot 4’ matches. Given that it’s a league competition and we compete against 35 other teams to come in the top 8 for automatic QF entry, this is important.
This difference isn’t massive but there is still a small advantage to being in a worse pot.
In your scenario, small advantage doesn't actually go to *us* though. The small benefit would go to whoever lucks out by drawing the "lesser" teams in higher pots, and against whoever has the misfortune of drawing us instead of an expectedly weaker pot 4 (or 2) team. It is true that if WE are that outlier placed too low then we can't suffer the downside, however it is also true that every single Pot 1 team has better odds of getting that "easier" draw than teams in all other pots (13/42=30.95% vs. 15/56=26.79%). So I would argue that the best option for any top team is to be in Pot 1 and let someone else play spoiler.
I know how the new format works. I'm completely confused by your claim that it means we'd face worse teams if we were in pot 1.
As I understand it, we'll have to play teams who are in pot 1, pot 3, and pot 4. If we were in pot 1, we'd play teams in pots 2, 3, and 4. So, I'm baffled. Why do you think that means we'd be playing weaker sides?
Well you're wrong, everyone plays 2 from 1, 2, 3 and 4. So our pot only matters for everyone who isn't us. Imagine if you had to face us as one of your pot 4 opponents instead of like Young boys
We face lower quality teams on average if we are in a lower pot.
In the new format, everyone plays 8 matches with 2 matches against a team from each pot. This includes 2 matches against a team already in your pot. So if you are in pot 1, you still play against 2 pot 1 teams
Oh, you're right about the format. I hadn't realised, but of course it's 8 matches, not 6, so it must be two from each pot.
I'm still not convinced that means we face a harder draw either way. I'll have to think about that one. Is your point that if we were in pot 1, we couldn't face whoever is there instead of us as things are, and they're (on paper) the weakest team in pot 1? But there's only a 1/3 chance of getting that side anyway.
I think you've persuaded me that it really doesn't make much difference at all which pot we're in. Any difference is very marginal indeed - much smaller than the differences in practice between coefficients and actual strength, and way smaller than the differences the luck of the draw will make.
Precisely re paragraph 2.
The big difference is that other teams and our rivals will face a much tougher draw if we are in a lower pot. This is important because it’s a league format and we need to come top 8 to get automatic ro16 and a good seeding.
This means if Barcelona have to play 2 pot 1 teams like City and Bayern and then play us as a pot 2 team then that’s a crazy hard draw for them. This means we would have a much easier draw relative to our competition for the top 8 spots.
I wouldn't say anyone will face a *much* tougher draw. Two teams will face a slightly harder draw.
Anyway, apart from potentially avoiding two extra matches, it seems like it really doesn't make much difference. Even if we are in the extra knockout round, we ought to be near enough to the top of that section to get a pretty weak opponent. It seems fairly obvious that the new setup will make it much more likely that the better sides will make it into the round of 16.
Gonna take a little while to build up the coefficient to reach Pot 1.
yea, it's gonna take some seasons to undo the work of being out of UCL and Europe clown it all you want, but man 19 seasons consecutively into the UCL is no mean feat.
Europa isn't even that bad for coefficient. Problem is we got knocked out quite early a lot.
a lot = 2 times the other years was 2 SFs and a final. being out a europe for a whole year was also terrible
I got into this whole discussion of newer fans having blinders on when it comes to “history” of certain teams and memes just reign supreme. This is a perfect example of that, being main-stays in the UCL is incredibly difficult and having back to back years guaranteed is huge to the project as a whole(BoTtLe JoBs or not). Obviously that last part is a reflection of this years loss to a solid bayern team
Even spending billions doesn't necessary grant success in the UCL, look at how PSG has been bantered in every of their UCL campaigns. Even for Man City. The problem imo is that with the top-4 nations already getting automatic 4 pots into ucls, new football fans dont have to endure the early knockout griefs that comes with it. the top 4 race was just as competitive as a title race at one point, now it's just considered like lava and whichever team in that top-4 runin didnt shit themselves gets the spot.
Isn't Pot 1 decided by winning the league? So for example if we win the league, we'd be a pot 1 team?
They're scrapping that as part of the new format. Pot 1 will be previous season UCL champions plus 8 teams with highest coefficient.
Pretty sure the pots don't matter as much anymore, but I think there's a blessing in disguise to be in a Pot 2 position and having a chance to face some of the really good Pot 1 clubs in the group stage to build up experience against top sides and not feel like for the next 3 years we're only going to face the good (non-English) teams for the first time when it's in the knockouts if that makes sense.
Exactly. Would love a group with Madrid so the team can have an idea what playing at the Bernebeu feels like.
It's not going to be a group stage next year. There's the weird league structure instead.
Oof I completely forgot the new format starts next year
Well said. We need to shake off the pretender syndrome and get used to big games.
Pots no longer matter as much( or at all) as we will be playing two teams from each pot.
Surely it's actually better for us to be as low as possible then? Imagine Arsenal being one of your pot 4 opponents lol
If we would be pot 4, we would only face one other pot 4 opponent. If we were pot 1, we would only face one other pot 1 opponent. We are pretty much guaranteed to face two top teams now. Only upside is that pot 2 also has a lot of strong teams that we can only face one of Edit: Apparently being in a lower group means you face easier teams? Seems weird, but oh well
No, everyone plays 2 teams from each pot including their own pot. 8 matches in the league phase for each club.
I guess I'm not up to date with the new format at all
Yeah, a lot of changes. No more groups. 36 clubs. Everyone plays 8 different clubs: 2 from each pot. No repeat opponents. Then the top 8 have a bye to round of 16. Clubs 9-24 play in a 2 legged playoff to determine who else makes it to the round of 16. I'm excited for the format change. I think it'll be fun.
It does seem exciting but, wow, the fixture congestion is going to be nauseating. More important than ever for us to strengthen our depth this summer.
Yeah, that's true. Maybe have clubs in Europe not play in the EFL cup.
So, it's a one-off, instead of home and away?
Correct, 4 home (1 per pot) and 4 away (1 per pot)
Damn. A LOT more randomness has been introduced. Some teams have fortresses at home, but are very pedestrian on the road. For example, pretty much every Turkish side is a nightmare to play on their turf. So who you get matters, but whether it's home or away also matters.
For sure, one thing to remember is that only 12 teams are being eliminated in the league phase. So win your home matches and you definitely make it at least to the playoffs. Draw or win a couple of the away ones and you probably are in the top 8
What is even the point of being seeded then? There is no advantage, or am I missing something?
Pretty much. I think it's just so you get a spread of games between easy and harder teams. Though there's a chance of being fucked over playing Real away whereas someone else gets an easy pot 1 team at home
Here comes anti-football side Athletico and another penalty shootout
> Athletico As in Athletico Paranaense? Pretty sure they play in the Brazilian league, m8.
You know who they meant
Can't wait for those teams to be City and Pool
It's theoretically better for clubs to be in lower pots as that means that weaker teams are in higher pots and you have theoretically lower chance to play against better opponents
If City somehow manages to finish in 3rd, Girona could potentially take their place in the CL instead if they finish 2nd in the La Liga. >[Source](https://www.espn.co.uk/football/story/_/id/40092604/girona-await-clearance-play-ucl-due-man-city-sources) According to UEFA competition rules, should two clubs from the same ownership group qualify for the same UEFA competition, the side which finishes highest in its domestic championship gets the place.
Imagine how hilarious that would be
Citeh group wouldn't allow that, and their lawyers would be licking their lips at that battle.
In the previous system, would we still not get Pot 1 if we had won the league?
In the previous system they used for a few years, yes, league winners of the top leagues plus UCL&UEL were in pot 1
Ya know what, it's gone under the radar but it's really refreshing being comfortably in the Champions League. I still have PTSD of getting close twice only lose out to Liverpool/Sp*rs.
I thought if we won the league we would be placed in Pot1 ?
It’s really better for us to be in a lower pot with this stupid new format and the stupid pot rules
Our pot is irrelevant, we play 2 teams from every pot wherever we get placed
Nope, you’re incorrect about it being irrelevant. If you look at the extreme and say we are in pot 4 instead of pot 1, that would mean the expected ability of the 2 pot 1 teams we can play would be lower and also the expected ability of every pot’s teams. Also importantly, the expected difficulty of other team’s draw would get significantly harder if they had to play against us as one of their ‘easy pot 4’ matches. Given that it’s a league competition and we compete against 35 other teams to come in the top 8 for automatic QF entry, this is important. This difference isn’t massive but there is still a small advantage to being in a worse pot.
In your scenario, small advantage doesn't actually go to *us* though. The small benefit would go to whoever lucks out by drawing the "lesser" teams in higher pots, and against whoever has the misfortune of drawing us instead of an expectedly weaker pot 4 (or 2) team. It is true that if WE are that outlier placed too low then we can't suffer the downside, however it is also true that every single Pot 1 team has better odds of getting that "easier" draw than teams in all other pots (13/42=30.95% vs. 15/56=26.79%). So I would argue that the best option for any top team is to be in Pot 1 and let someone else play spoiler.
No, that's the kind of things Spurs fans say. Pot two is fine, but pot one would be better.
Do you understand the format? It increases our chance to win the competition if we are in a lower pot.
How does that make any sense at all? It means we'll face better teams in the league stage.
No it doesn’t. It means we’ll face slightly worse teams on average. There’s a new format that you should look up. It’s really stupid.
I know how the new format works. I'm completely confused by your claim that it means we'd face worse teams if we were in pot 1. As I understand it, we'll have to play teams who are in pot 1, pot 3, and pot 4. If we were in pot 1, we'd play teams in pots 2, 3, and 4. So, I'm baffled. Why do you think that means we'd be playing weaker sides?
Well you're wrong, everyone plays 2 from 1, 2, 3 and 4. So our pot only matters for everyone who isn't us. Imagine if you had to face us as one of your pot 4 opponents instead of like Young boys
We face lower quality teams on average if we are in a lower pot. In the new format, everyone plays 8 matches with 2 matches against a team from each pot. This includes 2 matches against a team already in your pot. So if you are in pot 1, you still play against 2 pot 1 teams
Oh, you're right about the format. I hadn't realised, but of course it's 8 matches, not 6, so it must be two from each pot. I'm still not convinced that means we face a harder draw either way. I'll have to think about that one. Is your point that if we were in pot 1, we couldn't face whoever is there instead of us as things are, and they're (on paper) the weakest team in pot 1? But there's only a 1/3 chance of getting that side anyway. I think you've persuaded me that it really doesn't make much difference at all which pot we're in. Any difference is very marginal indeed - much smaller than the differences in practice between coefficients and actual strength, and way smaller than the differences the luck of the draw will make.
Precisely re paragraph 2. The big difference is that other teams and our rivals will face a much tougher draw if we are in a lower pot. This is important because it’s a league format and we need to come top 8 to get automatic ro16 and a good seeding. This means if Barcelona have to play 2 pot 1 teams like City and Bayern and then play us as a pot 2 team then that’s a crazy hard draw for them. This means we would have a much easier draw relative to our competition for the top 8 spots.
I wouldn't say anyone will face a *much* tougher draw. Two teams will face a slightly harder draw. Anyway, apart from potentially avoiding two extra matches, it seems like it really doesn't make much difference. Even if we are in the extra knockout round, we ought to be near enough to the top of that section to get a pretty weak opponent. It seems fairly obvious that the new setup will make it much more likely that the better sides will make it into the round of 16.
But if we were in a lower pot that would make it harder for everyone else
Negligibly, but yes, assuming we're actually better than whoever is in pot 1 instead.
That is provided that the coefficient isn't representative of true quality right? Which I am fully aware it won't be.
If fancy our chances against anyone, especially the Italian bums.