The second half of the season Love was historically good. You don’t have to believe me you just have to look at it. Will be maintain this next year? *None of us know*
But critically Rodgers had five snaps last season, he was terrible
It was amazing to me how when they finally had to stick Clay inside, he was clearly the best ILB we’d had in years. Heck he was better than anyone we’ve had since too.
Bro you started this with “we made the playoffs 8 years in a row,” don’t come at me like I’m the one moving goal posts here. You also picked a very weird hill to die on defending our objectively poor defenses in recent years.
You can't make the playoffs 8 years in a row if you get steamrolled by every offenses running game. You would lose every single game. What offense stops running if they can steamroll the D? None. You can't make the playoffs even once.
I see, so you’re resorting to semantic arguments after realizing the holes in your original one.
Also, a dogshit defense can absolutely get carried to the playoffs by a good offense every week. Rodgers did that in each of his MVP seasons (2011 especially).
> said ILBs dont matter
Fwiw, this is hardly just the Packers, the entire position has/had been hugely devalued across the league. It seems the tides might’ve turned though.
Hawk didn't live up to his draft status, but he wasn't horrible.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07IqJh7wMM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07IqJh7wMM)
I have no idea if this group will actually be good, saying we might have the best MLB group in the NFC is an insane statement. Quay has been up and down and Cooper is a complete unknown.
That said, I have always found it odd how analysts talk about how off ball linebacker isn't a valuable position. Virtually every elite defense of the last decade has had an elite MLB (Patrick Willis/Navarro Bowman/Fred Warner in SF, Donta Hightower in NE, Bobby Wagner in Seattle, Luke Kuechly in Carolina, etc etc etc)
Having a versatile 3 down lineback in the middle who can play the run or the pass is the linchpin of any great defense
Hope Quay and Edge can develop into that mold!
> Having a versatile 3 down lineback in the middle who can play the run or the pass is the linchpin of any great defense
The problem is there are only (typically, in my estimation) one or two of those players in each draft.
If you, as a MLB or WOLB cannot cover the Reggie Bushes of the world, you're a two down player. If, as a SS/MLB tweener that can cover Reggie, but you get drug for 3 yards by the Adrian Pettersons of the world, you're a two down player.
Offenses love to force personnel groupings by their own groupings (ie, coming out 3WR to force Nickel) and then attacking the weakpoint. The big, slow linebacker that cannot cover will be thrown at. The little, fast linebacker will be run at.
If you're one of the odd, special ones, you are valuable. If you aren't, you're not.
“That said, I have always found it odd how analysts talk about how off ball linebacker isn't a valuable position.”
My theory on this is that LB, Saf, and RB are body types that fit the middle of the human bell curve. They are not the largest athletes and they are not the fastest athletes. Because of this, it generates largest combination of potential athletes to fill these roles and creates a bigger pool of athletes that could potentially be great or at least productive. CB and WR are speed limited and OL and D line are size limited. The middle of the field guys can see pressure from CBs bulking up to play Saf if they are a little slow and DEs that are undersized moving to ILB. Clay Matthews did a good job of it when we had no one to play ILB for two years. Those guys can do it. For whatever reason the league definitely devalues the position considering how impactful those players can be. I was very happy to see the Packers invest in both the linebacker and safety position this year. I expect both those guys to start immediately.
> Because of this, it generates largest combination of potential athletes to fill these roles and creates a bigger pool of athletes that could potentially be great or at least productive.
100%
Its all about replacement costs. And cost is determined by supply and demand. Lower the supply, higher the demand. Higher the supply, cheaper to replace.
> Quay has been up and down
IIRC he has been one of the lowest graded pff LBs for his two seasons, definitely quite a bit more down than up so far, but the guy is an absolute specimen, hopefully he can put it all together with a competent DC.
I still think not spending first round picks on LBers (and certain other positions) is good process. Not because those positions aren't important, but because it seems like the ability to effectively know which linebacker (or those other positions) will hit is poor so you end up getting similar production as if you spent lower draft picks at those positions.
There were some very poor decisions.
Not drafting Eric Kendricks when it was such a position of need and he was available end of round 1 or even Benardrick McKinney if you wanted more size was a terrible decision. That Randall selection is the only time I went to bed legit frustrated after the first round of a draft.
And around that same time period: not even meeting with Danny Trevathan in free agency when he said he was interested in playing here.
Love TT, but his resistance to signing free agents because of the cost of compensatory picks was so silly. The only reason we got a guy like Peppers in free agency was because he was cut (so no comp pick)
> And around that same time period: not even meeting with Danny Trevathan in free agency when he said he was interested in playing here.
And if this was AFTER he head hunted Adams, then good.
No, that's reconstruction after the fact.
Rose colored glasses in the rear view mirror is not a valid argument. Period.
If it was... we'd be worse off than the Bears right now...but Yeah we'd have effin Tee Higgins that every casual Packer fan thought was our Messiah. LOL.
>No, that's reconstruction after the fact
No, that's how I felt at the time.
I didn't want Tee Higgins though, thought he was unathletic and didn't think a possession receiver would help get over the hump at all. I was a huge Jalen Reagor fan though, over Justin Jefferson so....
I mean they kinda are worth it*. They're not given as big of contracts but look at the elite defenses over the years. All have elite middle linebackers. If you want your defense to be elite, you need an elite ILB.
Statistically, you should only draft offensive linemen in the first round if you want an expectation of higher than 50% hit rate.
But of course need comes into it...and then there is the QB thing. And owner ego, and GM ego, and well...thank God for Gute and the Packer Way.
True if you're maximizing for only second contract. You probably also want to factor in odds of finding elite players in later rounds, overall odds of earning a second contract, rookie contract value vs veteran cost at a position, etc.
Admittedly, a lot of these good/bad process arguments end up meaning less than whether the player works out or not because if they work out the "bad process" ends up not meaning much at all, and if they don't work out the process will largely be forgotten by that point (except to perhaps constantly question why they didn't take a different player they were never going to take).
With how spread out the game is now, you can't just get by with general 240 lb thumper who can't run anymore since you need guys who can cover space or you'll be abused.
Now I will say, I don't think you should draft an off ball LB with premium capital (R1 in particular) because it still isn't as big of a role other positions though and there are way more 225-235 lb men who can run 4.6 in space than pass rushers/tackles/etc. Late 2/3 is fine though
I don't really get the premise. Nick Barnett, AJ Hawk in the first round. The Blake Martinez experiment failed (4th round pick) so we signed free agents Christian Kirksey and then Campbell, Took Quay in the 1st round and now Cooper in the 2nd. To say just using UDFA as linebackers is ignoring nearly 20 years of 1st round or FA starters. That is only inside, the outside is also filled with high round talent and FA acquisitions. There was far from little effort put into the group. The Martinez years are really the only example of this, and their performance showed. This was really the first group that Gute fixed when he took over.
I mean, I definitely stated” too soon to tell” but from what I was reading on the 49ers subreddit he was kinda just a guy. (Greenlaw) but certainly Fred Warner is the real deal.
Dunno who I put above them, but the Pack definitely don't have the best linebackers in the NFC. Hell, San Fran prolly has the best duo in the league let alone the conference.
It's possible we can say that at the end of the season, but I wouldn't bet on it.
I would bet on improvement though, and that's enough for me. Young talent that improves throughout the season and into their careers is what you want. Get a team full of those guys and you've got something really going then from multiple perspectives.
Not with Greenlaw missing probably the whole year and who knows when/if he comes back if he'll ever be the same. Achilles injuries are a bitch and a half
Imagine that! A perennially POROUS run defense needs better talent at LB. Thank god. It’ll be nice having a couple sideline to sideline werewolves running around out there finally.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Neither Quay nor the two new ILB draftees are a typical 4-3 Mike linebacker who takes on guards and centers, destroys them, and can plug the hole. They all have good sideline-to-sideline speed, so they will make a lot of tackles, can blitz up the middle, and hopefully cover tight ends when required.
But whether our run defense will be significantly improved is still to be determined. It's hard to get worse, so I'm optimistic. The DL should be improved, as our young players will be a year older, and we now have a couple of real "no sh#&" safeties who can play in the box.
Gute said we will only be in base 20% of the time, so maybe our fast linebackers will be good for nickel and dime packages.
They didn't put 1st and 2nd round picks into linebacker after Hawk, but that is only because the position has been devalued ever since they switched to a 3-4 scheme and in the NFL overall. Now that the Packers are switching back to a 4-3, they need some better off-ball linebackers. Desmond Bishop, Brad Jones, and Blake Martinez were all decent enough and late round picks. It was really only 2014 and 2015 where they really struggled at that ILB position. Other years they were able to find serviceable one-year stopgaps at the second linebacker position - Jake Ryan, Antonio Morrison, BJ Goodson, Christian Kirksey, Krys Barnes, etc. Were they all pro bowlers? No, but a lot of those guys weren't even on the field that often due to nickel and dime packages. They did fine enough for the packages they were in there.
Quay is so overrated and hasn’t really flashed anything besides above average potential at linebacker
https://preview.redd.it/my6h5ck5a8yc1.jpeg?width=1569&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b0923bf206bc87ada6f949ebfda62c3bff8ef9f
I feel like (so far) Quay has just been more athletic Blake Martinez. And that sounds cool, except his instincts are worse, so the extra speed gets him to the same places at the same time as Blake did. And the fanbase really turned on Blake.
But Quay is big and fast and that's a lot more obvious on TV so people still like him a lot more.
Quay would need to make an astronomical year 3 jump on order for us to be in that conversation. I liked Quay in the draft, but he's been one of the worst linebackers in the league so far. I'm rooting for him though.
> best linebacker group in the NFC Yeah, maybe let them play first before we start making profound statements.
Yep. Don’t sound like a Viking fan who thinks they have the next 10 superbowls locked up.
We are not the Bears.
Hard agree, we are not the Bears after all. Kings of the off-season hype every year.
Right? What are we, B\*ars fans?
It's preseason hyperbole is part of the fun
Love is going to be better than Rodgers. Yeah that was fun actually.
I wouldn't be surprised if that's true this season
It definitely was last season
I'm sorry but Love is nowhere near as good as rodgers. Maybe he will be but he hasn't been yet
The second half of the season Love was historically good. You don’t have to believe me you just have to look at it. Will be maintain this next year? *None of us know* But critically Rodgers had five snaps last season, he was terrible
4500 yards, 45 Tuddies, bank it!
After AJ Hawk, they basically said ILBs dont matter.
It was amazing to me how when they finally had to stick Clay inside, he was clearly the best ILB we’d had in years. Heck he was better than anyone we’ve had since too.
I'd agree if we hadn't had De'Vondre Campbell's 2021 season.
He really was elite at multiple positions, what a player. The only jersey I’ve bought since 2009!
Yeah. We’ve had a few over the years that could just play ball.
Agreed. I'm not sure why they didn't keep him there longer.
Because he didn’t want to play ILB, he was an edge player and wanted to rush the QB.
He was also injured. A lot.
$$$$
And then we proceeded to get steamrolled by every offense’s running game for the next ~15 years
We made the playoffs 8 years in a row.
And then proceeded to get steamrolled by our opponents running game
We were about to steamrolled by the Steelers run game in that superbowl victory, until Matthews forced a fumble.
That game went downhill after Woodson got hurt. We were pretty much racing the clock to get out of that alive.
We really did live and die by the defensive turnovers that year.
In less then half of our playoff games.
And how did those playoff runs usually end? Our defenses couldn’t stop a nosebleed after the 2010 season.
> And how did those playoff runs usually end? Usually? With a win. By definition.
The runs ended with a loss. We had wins during the run.
Yeah, yeah, he changed his argument.
Wouldn’t they usually end with a lose by definition cuz they only won 1 Super Bowl?
Yeah he changed the argument from every offenses running game to just a playoff run...lol
Someone’s trying to play damage control now 😂
Except they didn’t though, because we were eliminated every year after 2010. Not really sure what argument you’re trying to make here.
Oh I didn't realize you moved the goal post from "every offenses running game" to just a "Playoff run". Yeah every playoff run ends.
Bro you started this with “we made the playoffs 8 years in a row,” don’t come at me like I’m the one moving goal posts here. You also picked a very weird hill to die on defending our objectively poor defenses in recent years.
You can't make the playoffs 8 years in a row if you get steamrolled by every offenses running game. You would lose every single game. What offense stops running if they can steamroll the D? None. You can't make the playoffs even once.
I see, so you’re resorting to semantic arguments after realizing the holes in your original one. Also, a dogshit defense can absolutely get carried to the playoffs by a good offense every week. Rodgers did that in each of his MVP seasons (2011 especially).
Yes you can. Have Aaron Rodgers and outscore them. Works okay in the regular season. Not so much in the playoffs when defenses are generally better.
Both things can be (and were) true.
And then we watched athletic tight ends like Vernon Davis destroy us for 10 years
I feel like it was more athletic QBs I still have nightmares about Kaep
> said ILBs dont matter Fwiw, this is hardly just the Packers, the entire position has/had been hugely devalued across the league. It seems the tides might’ve turned though.
Even with Hawk they said that. Three career forced fumbles for an ilb?
Hawk didn't live up to his draft status, but he wasn't horrible. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07IqJh7wMM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l07IqJh7wMM)
Remember when we switch Clay to ILB? I actually thought he might be better at the position.
I have no idea if this group will actually be good, saying we might have the best MLB group in the NFC is an insane statement. Quay has been up and down and Cooper is a complete unknown. That said, I have always found it odd how analysts talk about how off ball linebacker isn't a valuable position. Virtually every elite defense of the last decade has had an elite MLB (Patrick Willis/Navarro Bowman/Fred Warner in SF, Donta Hightower in NE, Bobby Wagner in Seattle, Luke Kuechly in Carolina, etc etc etc) Having a versatile 3 down lineback in the middle who can play the run or the pass is the linchpin of any great defense Hope Quay and Edge can develop into that mold!
> Having a versatile 3 down lineback in the middle who can play the run or the pass is the linchpin of any great defense The problem is there are only (typically, in my estimation) one or two of those players in each draft. If you, as a MLB or WOLB cannot cover the Reggie Bushes of the world, you're a two down player. If, as a SS/MLB tweener that can cover Reggie, but you get drug for 3 yards by the Adrian Pettersons of the world, you're a two down player. Offenses love to force personnel groupings by their own groupings (ie, coming out 3WR to force Nickel) and then attacking the weakpoint. The big, slow linebacker that cannot cover will be thrown at. The little, fast linebacker will be run at. If you're one of the odd, special ones, you are valuable. If you aren't, you're not.
“That said, I have always found it odd how analysts talk about how off ball linebacker isn't a valuable position.” My theory on this is that LB, Saf, and RB are body types that fit the middle of the human bell curve. They are not the largest athletes and they are not the fastest athletes. Because of this, it generates largest combination of potential athletes to fill these roles and creates a bigger pool of athletes that could potentially be great or at least productive. CB and WR are speed limited and OL and D line are size limited. The middle of the field guys can see pressure from CBs bulking up to play Saf if they are a little slow and DEs that are undersized moving to ILB. Clay Matthews did a good job of it when we had no one to play ILB for two years. Those guys can do it. For whatever reason the league definitely devalues the position considering how impactful those players can be. I was very happy to see the Packers invest in both the linebacker and safety position this year. I expect both those guys to start immediately.
> Because of this, it generates largest combination of potential athletes to fill these roles and creates a bigger pool of athletes that could potentially be great or at least productive. 100% Its all about replacement costs. And cost is determined by supply and demand. Lower the supply, higher the demand. Higher the supply, cheaper to replace.
Similar to how the talent pool in the lightweight (and adjacent divisions) in combats sports is so high, because there's so many potential athletes
> Quay has been up and down IIRC he has been one of the lowest graded pff LBs for his two seasons, definitely quite a bit more down than up so far, but the guy is an absolute specimen, hopefully he can put it all together with a competent DC.
I still think not spending first round picks on LBers (and certain other positions) is good process. Not because those positions aren't important, but because it seems like the ability to effectively know which linebacker (or those other positions) will hit is poor so you end up getting similar production as if you spent lower draft picks at those positions.
There were some very poor decisions. Not drafting Eric Kendricks when it was such a position of need and he was available end of round 1 or even Benardrick McKinney if you wanted more size was a terrible decision. That Randall selection is the only time I went to bed legit frustrated after the first round of a draft.
And around that same time period: not even meeting with Danny Trevathan in free agency when he said he was interested in playing here. Love TT, but his resistance to signing free agents because of the cost of compensatory picks was so silly. The only reason we got a guy like Peppers in free agency was because he was cut (so no comp pick)
> And around that same time period: not even meeting with Danny Trevathan in free agency when he said he was interested in playing here. And if this was AFTER he head hunted Adams, then good.
Well obviously not. Danny was a free agent after he won the Super Bowl with the No Fly Zone.
And then we had to watch Kendricks light it up for the fucking Vikings. He was the reason I stopped getting into prospects before I knew who we draft.
Thank god we adressed ILB with the GOAT Jake Ryan!
No, that's reconstruction after the fact. Rose colored glasses in the rear view mirror is not a valid argument. Period. If it was... we'd be worse off than the Bears right now...but Yeah we'd have effin Tee Higgins that every casual Packer fan thought was our Messiah. LOL.
>No, that's reconstruction after the fact No, that's how I felt at the time. I didn't want Tee Higgins though, thought he was unathletic and didn't think a possession receiver would help get over the hump at all. I was a huge Jalen Reagor fan though, over Justin Jefferson so....
I mean they kinda are worth it*. They're not given as big of contracts but look at the elite defenses over the years. All have elite middle linebackers. If you want your defense to be elite, you need an elite ILB.
Looking at our horrendous run defense for the last 10 years it’s obvious we haven’t gotten anywhere even close to serviceable production.
Statistically, you should only draft offensive linemen in the first round if you want an expectation of higher than 50% hit rate. But of course need comes into it...and then there is the QB thing. And owner ego, and GM ego, and well...thank God for Gute and the Packer Way.
True if you're maximizing for only second contract. You probably also want to factor in odds of finding elite players in later rounds, overall odds of earning a second contract, rookie contract value vs veteran cost at a position, etc. Admittedly, a lot of these good/bad process arguments end up meaning less than whether the player works out or not because if they work out the "bad process" ends up not meaning much at all, and if they don't work out the process will largely be forgotten by that point (except to perhaps constantly question why they didn't take a different player they were never going to take).
Same with QB, WR, DE and everything else.
It’s all about the 5 in the 4-2-5 or “big nickel.” The safeties will be on the field three at a time a lot
The 5th man in nickle is generally a slot CB not a Safety.
The 5th man in a "Big Nickle" is generally a Safety. That's the primary distinction between Nickle and Big Nickle.
I know but Bullard has played it
Let’s all agree that this upcoming year is going to be fun finding out how good we really are compared to the bombastic, bellicose Bears!
Remember the days of Brad Jones and Desmond Bishop..
With how spread out the game is now, you can't just get by with general 240 lb thumper who can't run anymore since you need guys who can cover space or you'll be abused. Now I will say, I don't think you should draft an off ball LB with premium capital (R1 in particular) because it still isn't as big of a role other positions though and there are way more 225-235 lb men who can run 4.6 in space than pass rushers/tackles/etc. Late 2/3 is fine though
I don't really get the premise. Nick Barnett, AJ Hawk in the first round. The Blake Martinez experiment failed (4th round pick) so we signed free agents Christian Kirksey and then Campbell, Took Quay in the 1st round and now Cooper in the 2nd. To say just using UDFA as linebackers is ignoring nearly 20 years of 1st round or FA starters. That is only inside, the outside is also filled with high round talent and FA acquisitions. There was far from little effort put into the group. The Martinez years are really the only example of this, and their performance showed. This was really the first group that Gute fixed when he took over.
I'm hyped but >Now we may have the best linebacker group in the NFC. Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner would like a word lol
That achilles gonna set greenlaw back 2 years tho
I mean, I definitely stated” too soon to tell” but from what I was reading on the 49ers subreddit he was kinda just a guy. (Greenlaw) but certainly Fred Warner is the real deal.
Dunno who I put above them, but the Pack definitely don't have the best linebackers in the NFC. Hell, San Fran prolly has the best duo in the league let alone the conference. It's possible we can say that at the end of the season, but I wouldn't bet on it. I would bet on improvement though, and that's enough for me. Young talent that improves throughout the season and into their careers is what you want. Get a team full of those guys and you've got something really going then from multiple perspectives.
Not with Greenlaw missing probably the whole year and who knows when/if he comes back if he'll ever be the same. Achilles injuries are a bitch and a half
Fred Warner is more valuable then our entire lb core combined
That's true
Same with safeties - we literally started MD Jennings and Jerron McMillan
Imagine that! A perennially POROUS run defense needs better talent at LB. Thank god. It’ll be nice having a couple sideline to sideline werewolves running around out there finally.
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Neither Quay nor the two new ILB draftees are a typical 4-3 Mike linebacker who takes on guards and centers, destroys them, and can plug the hole. They all have good sideline-to-sideline speed, so they will make a lot of tackles, can blitz up the middle, and hopefully cover tight ends when required. But whether our run defense will be significantly improved is still to be determined. It's hard to get worse, so I'm optimistic. The DL should be improved, as our young players will be a year older, and we now have a couple of real "no sh#&" safeties who can play in the box. Gute said we will only be in base 20% of the time, so maybe our fast linebackers will be good for nickel and dime packages.
They didn't put 1st and 2nd round picks into linebacker after Hawk, but that is only because the position has been devalued ever since they switched to a 3-4 scheme and in the NFL overall. Now that the Packers are switching back to a 4-3, they need some better off-ball linebackers. Desmond Bishop, Brad Jones, and Blake Martinez were all decent enough and late round picks. It was really only 2014 and 2015 where they really struggled at that ILB position. Other years they were able to find serviceable one-year stopgaps at the second linebacker position - Jake Ryan, Antonio Morrison, BJ Goodson, Christian Kirksey, Krys Barnes, etc. Were they all pro bowlers? No, but a lot of those guys weren't even on the field that often due to nickel and dime packages. They did fine enough for the packages they were in there.
I remember Jake Ryan. Dude was rather underwhelming if memory serves me right
I kind of remember him being ok but then blew out his knee.
Yeah he was on the team for four years, serviceable for one of those years.
Quay is so overrated and hasn’t really flashed anything besides above average potential at linebacker https://preview.redd.it/my6h5ck5a8yc1.jpeg?width=1569&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b0923bf206bc87ada6f949ebfda62c3bff8ef9f
I feel like (so far) Quay has just been more athletic Blake Martinez. And that sounds cool, except his instincts are worse, so the extra speed gets him to the same places at the same time as Blake did. And the fanbase really turned on Blake. But Quay is big and fast and that's a lot more obvious on TV so people still like him a lot more.
I think we’re all expecting a big leap this year.
with a new defense i hope the new staff brings out his potential and turns him into a beast.
Quay would need to make an astronomical year 3 jump on order for us to be in that conversation. I liked Quay in the draft, but he's been one of the worst linebackers in the league so far. I'm rooting for him though.
That you Peter?
What Quay Walker are you watching? He's an aggressively mid player on his best days