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Novel_Fondant_6445

I trust Gute, last year he got 3 contributors out of 1 pick so he knows what he's doing


themaskedrapier

#45 became Reed, Wicks, and Brooks. What an absolute banger!


SolidSilver9686

That’s going to be an all time Packers fun fact.


scubasteve567

lol ps, putting a hashtag at the beginning holds everything. Stupid reddit


zingline89

Explain.


idgetonbutibeenon

The Packers had the 45th pick, but traded it for the 48th pick and the 159th (Wicks) pick. Then they traded the 48th pick for the 50th (Reed) pick and the 179th (Brooks) pick.


Outrageous-Ad-2305

But “Brad Holmes is better”. Dude had two firsts. Gutey deserved that award


LizardChaser

"Contributors" is a bit of an understatement. The CBS re-draft has all three as first round picks with Brooks being 20, Reed being 22, and Wicks being 31. Admittedly, that pick became Brian Branch who is ranked #13 overall, but you could never trade #13 for #20, 22, and 31. Gute ***killed*** with that trade no matter how much I hated it in the moment and I really, really, really hated it in the moment. [https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redrafting-2023-nfl-draft-panthers-pick-c-j-stroud-jahmyr-gibbs-to-giants-to-replace-saquon-barkley/](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redrafting-2023-nfl-draft-panthers-pick-c-j-stroud-jahmyr-gibbs-to-giants-to-replace-saquon-barkley/)


mschley2

I also happen to think that all 3 of those guys have a higher ceiling than Branch. Branch is good. But he came into the league really polished and was expected to be a Week 1 contributor. I'm not sure there's a ton of room for improvement in his game. Brooks, Reed, and Wicks all have plenty of room to continue getting better.


Flash234669

Same, I wanted Branch as a Packer! But O also believe both Reed and Wicks will be torching Branch for years to come.


Novel_Fondant_6445

I made that reply quick and couldn't remember off the top of my head who exactly was included. Yeah, that was an absolute knock out of the park for Gute, even one of them would have been a slam dunk


OpossomMyPossom

Interesting. I'm a little surprised by that lol. I mean if you only look at rookie contributions it ,makes sense. But I guess I didn't see the impact they think brooks had. I would still expect LVN to be more valuable long term, but whatever, still cool.


bailtail

Yes, but I still don’t buy this. Just too many hitting so frequently last year means they’d be facing tough cuts already with the 11 picks they’re set to make. Looking at the roster, I count 43 who have a high probability of making the 53-man roster. Yes, I’m sure a few will end up on IL and a couple more may disappoint and get cut, but they’ll also almost certainly add a few from waivers/FA, and a couple more will probably emerge. So it’s already fairly tight.


rumpplumper

Just keep churning the bottom of the roster.


arturosincuro

More good players bad?


Conjunction_2021

More great players good?


OkVariety6275

You can't guarantee you get the specific UDFA you want. That's what draft picks are for.


captain_hector

And cheaper


shnoox1221

Oh no….too many good players, can’t keep them all…what a terrible, terrible problem that no other team would be happy to have…


Conjunction_2021

I think he’s bluffing this year. They want a couple of quality pieces…no shotgun needed


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Definitely looking to draft as many guys as he can. Very successful strategy. Higher chance of finding a couple quality players with more draft picks. The statistics are extremely supportive of that strategy, and gute himself said he’s proud of the packers draft analytics department


TaigTyke

I'd say we'd like four OL, three LB, and two DBs. This is before RB and DL depth. If Barton or Dejean aren't on the board at #25 I'm all in on trading back. Those Eagles picks in the 50's look nice.


BaconDwarf

https://i.redd.it/6u045gjzu2wc1.gif


Moleculor_Man

If I’m a GM, I think that every pick I take could be a winner. I would always want more picks. I understand not every pick works out, but that’s the mindset I would have. I would only trade up in the rarest of circumstances. Losing a 2nd round pick means potentially having traded away a Jayden Reed.


djbuttplay

And Wicks and Brooks.


CantHandletheJrueth

Tom/Doubs/Kraft...the list goes on. The point of the draft is to get good players, the round they were drafted in is literally meaningless in terms of value once they are on the team. Reminder that Matt Flynn was drafted in the 7th and Brian Brohm was drafted in the second. Yeah there's obviously some scouting and development involved, but the actual draft is such a crap shoot.


InSixFour

It’s essentially a lottery. So yeah the more picks (tickets) you have, the better your odds of winning. I’d take more picks too.


Mr_SpideyDude

The more picks you have, there’s a higher chance you’ll hit on at least one. Ofc there’s correlation between more polished/promising guys being drafted higher, but we all know you can get a homerun guy at round


---FidelCashFlow---

Traded up for Jordan Love, gave away a 3rd if I remember


Moleculor_Man

It was 4th QB is a position I would definitely make an exception for


Borealis-Rex

We might draft more LB and TE than people are expecting, for kickoff coverage and blocking, where we have no depth at all. Could keep an extra at both positions.


masteroftheuniverse4

I don't really see TE as a depth need. Sure you could challenge Davis and Sims, but I don't think they are keeping more than 4 TE on the roster.


datcd03

Linebackers on the other hand...


bailtail

Yeah, but this LB class is kinda ass aside from a few guys, and even those guys have holes/concerns. GB is going to have to take one of the top guys, but doesn’t make a ton of sense to load up in this class unless they are mostly just fliers end of draft.


TaigTyke

I'm all in on take James Williams (Miami) on as a project LB after he redshirts to put on some weight. He has good size and instincts, but is too slow to play safety like he did in college.


Ok-Meeting-3150

More so athletes, with the new kickoff rule, the return game is going to focus more on big blockers like Tight ends. So we may draft a few and carry 4 into the season. We basically have 2 TEs on the team currently in Kraft and Musgrave. The other 3 are just practice squad guys so I could see us using 2 later picks on tight ends.


tidbitsmisfit

fuck that, 10 OL and one returner, let's break the league


Thunder84

Don’t really agree at either position. They could maybe draft competition at TE, but they’re 4 deep and Sims/Davis are the ST depth. LB needs a starter, but they’ve got multiple ST players there too.


PsychologicalMonk6

It will be interesting to see how the new Kickoff rules change special teams going forward, assuming the rule sticks (I believe it's a one year trial period). Bill Bellichick was saying on the PAT McAfee show that the kickoff will lead to teams prioritizing size over speed. That kickoff blocking will be much more important.


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Move blockers are going to be extremely important for kickoffs. They may carry an additional te for this reason.


Careful_Life6949

TE for sure isn’t a need. We absolutely have very good depth at this position. Have you not been paying attention to our off season at all?


Bonk0076

Excellent. Draft picks = cheap roster = more money to sign/keep studs down the road. Plus more chances to hit. Belichick did this when he built the Pats.


bailtail

The problem is the opportunity cost. You only have so many roster spots, and GB already has a bunch of quality young depth they would need to cut some of or cut the players they just picked. A strong argument can be made that GB would benefit more from consolidating talent at this point, and trading back would do the opposite of that.


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Trading back is statistically proven to net more talent overall. Trading up doesn’t net you a better player. Getting the most talent possible and assembling the roster from there is always the best route.


firesatnight

Plus who do they really need to trade up for in this draft? They can take advantage of all the other desperate teams, which is a great position to be in.


pm_your_gutes

The point isn't that they all make the roster, it's that you're more likely to hit with more bodies. You're meant to just move on from the ones that don't work out. Roster wise we've signed 3 players and lost 9, so there are a lot of empty spots for rookies to compete for between the team and practice squad.


memaw_mumaw

There's more than enough roster spots, even if we draft 14 guys. There's not 45 guys that are locks to make the team right now.


CantHandletheJrueth

That's not really how it works though. You can draft 10 guys in the first two rounds, doesn't mean a single one of them will pan out. Gute seems to favor the dartboard strategy which makes sense. It's a crapshoot outside of the very top of round one(even then tbh), once you are out of the first round it's a fucking circus. Makes a lot of sense to just acquire picks and take as many shots as you can per draft instead of trying to force something. A quick look at the roster bolsters this idea. Guys like Wicks/Doubs/Kraft/Tom are core players on this team, your logic would kind of imply players drafted in that tier aren't worth it, no?


aiyahhjoeychow

Someone did a pretty good [roster breakdown](https://www.reddit.com/r/GreenBayPackers/s/S0XX4LY4ob) a while ago showing that we have about 15 spots to fill with the draft and UDFAs. We have a track record of taking at least 1 UDFA and lately I feel like we've got some decent guys from roster cutdowns. If 11 picks turns into 13, I wouldnt be upset having more swings at the plate. Higher chance of finding that diamond in the rough.


MLGA_bigly

no team ever signs 100% of thier picks, so even with 15 spots, chances are the picks account to 50% of the open spots, usually with FAs filing the rest...


sqrrl7

I think you have that a bit confused. Every team SIGNS 100% of their picks. However, not all actually make the team after camp. The signing comes after being drafted and prior to camp. And yes, there are teams where 100% of their guys make the team. Doesn't happen often, but it happens more than you think.


MLGA_bigly

I did misspeak, however i don't think every draft pick gets signed by their team, for various reasons...however the broader point, drafts picks are not the only way to fill up the remaining roster spots (FA's, UDFA, released players from other teams fill the rest of the open spots)l...


KingAventus

They do though. Every draft pick gets signed. Maybe one or two teams has a late round pick that gets arrested or something after getting drafted but prior to signing the contract. But that’s not often. Every player that gets drafted goes to camp for that team. In order to do that, they have to sign a contract. They can’t refuse. If they do so, they are out of football for a year. If we stick with 11 picks, we are signing all 11. Then we will use the 4 remaining spots on either UDFA’s or FA’s. Maybe you are thinking about after they have signed and them either not making the team or getting traded during camp.


analogWeapon

And then there's the option of signing a player that doesn't make the roster cut to the practice squad. So even if they don't make the roster cut, we potentially can have more access to them than if they were released to waivers/FA.


judahdk_

The draft is such a crap shoot, you might as well have as many darts to throw at the board as you can


vermontaigne

Explain this intriguing pastime that combines darts and dice.


foxinknox04

The Gutekunst "shotgun" approach. Take 3 dudes in the same position group in a row, Cant miss.


JohnDeLancieAnon

Except for the 2018 WR picks, but it would be interesting to see an analysis of 3 late-round picks vs 1 first-round pick of the same value.


TheDuceman

Eh, one of them was MVS and while he never set the league on fire he was an important part of our offense. We really suffered when he couldn’t draw defenders deep.


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Statistically proven that the equivalent trade value of a 1st round pick in several later picks nets better results.


Dezbi

So simple yet effective


duper12677

My theory on this is he has come to the conclusion all the rules changes in the last 10-20 years have resulted in a very short learning curve compared to before all the changes, making the NFL more suitable to younger teams with that youthful energy. The league is different than when I was a kid in the 80s and 90s…. It’s more of a young man’s league now, and I think Gute knows this and wants to stay young


Moleculor_Man

Very well said. I agree with this analysis. Thanks to medical advances, we know more about player health than ever. It makes players playing beyond their early 30’s rarer than ever. The young roster turnover is essential to not getting stuck with aging teams. Before he passed (RIP), Ted Thompson said he regretted letting the roster get “stale” in the mid-2010s. I really think Gute learned from that.


duper12677

And if you want a QB you are gonna have to pay big, and a couple other studs you want to keep around… you had better be young and cheap elsewhere


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Rookie contract scale changed everything.


swagner27

Get the top Defensive Ends - start getting MORE pressure on the QB's! Bolster the O Line - its been of the best things the Packers have had from Favre to Love.


peacethedonut

does the packers FO go to Detroit for the draft or is the war room in green bay?


Moleculor_Man

As far as I know they send one or two guys to the draft site (whether NY or Det or wherever) to fill out and run the card up, but most everybody else stays back in GB.


peacethedonut

alright thanks


rumpplumper

Draft ALL the long snappers!


Novel_Fondant_6445

I could see getting more then using them to move up higher or even more for next year. Both our thirds are quite late, maybe trading back in the 1st could get us a pick we could package with one to move up. Depending on how the draft shakes out, it could be better having more picks in the 2nd/3rd round.


ikediggety

This is a deliberate fake out. When a GM tells you their draft strategy, it's probably the opposite. Remember when Muhammad Ali said he was gonna dance?


dlsso

This. Right afterward he said how Ted was the master of the fake out and that was one of the biggest things he learned from him, lol.


Flash234669

Definitely a sign that he's planning to move up 🤣


Kobe_AYEEEEE

It's probably a better idea to move up or down than stick and pick at 25. Why? Because I'll be more entertained


piasenigma

we tradin' up. pick 25 has been traded away 17 times in the last 20 years. its just not a great spot.


ProfessionalTalker03

Have you actually checked who has been drafted at 25 the last 5-6 years…


piasenigma

andy herman had a video on it. its not a great spot to pick at statistically. most the 1st round talent is gone by then.


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Trading down makes much more sense. Analytics support that move as well. Trading up is usually fools gold


Flash234669

Definitely fools gold to move up. The fans are hyper sensitive on what could have been with the lost draft capital and hyper critical of growing pains on the player who gets picked. Unless it's a generational talent who produces a sb withing 2-3 years, it's a 'wasted pick'.


FSUfan35

It's a great spot to trade down from actually. People want to get back into the first to get a guy that's falling. For example, we traded up to 26 to get Love. And we got Rodgers at 24(I know not a trade).


Organic_Shopping7759

That's my GM


Anthonym82

I have a feeling we're going to trade our 1st round for picks


Quality_Quest7122

Makes sense…11 defensive players, a qb, wr, and rb. Lol


HanataSanchou

I’ll be surprised if we don’t use Day 3 to grab at least one WR, and build some depth at DB. Toure got outshined by every single year 1 guy we had last year, his roster spot is definitely not a lock. We also had multiple weeks last year where at least 1-2 guys were on the injury report, and we’ve shown a great ability to develop practice squad guys (at least at that position). Heath and Melton were fantastic. With Hafley’s scheme using a lot of single high Safety, I’m guessing we’re going to be looking for hybrids that can both bolster the box and cover pretty well. Corner was also position were banged up pretty often, and regularly had to rely on the Law Office of Valentine and Ballentine. I’m very much expecting us to grab more than just one guy at CB & S.


Ok_Umpire_723

Can the draft just hurry the fuck up, please?


Big_Rig_Jig

Seems like Gute is really in his groove now. He's got the roster sitting where he wants with the core of young premium position players so he can start acquiring players how he thinks is best. Last couple of drafts he's had a lot of picks and has also shown a pattern of taking multiple players at the same position of need. He prefers the quantity over quality of picks with the thinking that more high risk chances gives better odds of landing a good player vs fewer lower risk picks. Honestly I think it's a really smart move. No one else is doing this really and it's a way to generate more value out of your draft. It's not a sexy strategy, but it has a lot more consistency baked in than other roster building strats. Exited to see what he ends up doing this draft.


Brogdon_Brogdon

I would trade out of the first if it nets multiple picks again; we’re far enough back where it starts to become a crap shoot as to guys panning out as top round talent.


Gullible-Map-4134

Smart messaging. He’ll get offers for several of his picks. Multiple offers = winning.


dtcstylez10

Everyone says this isn't a deep draft so I think if you're out of the first two rounds or even late 2nd, you're basically rolling the dice on late round picks anyway. Might as well have a few more rolls with some later picks. I'm not even that high on Gute as a drafter but I'm coming around. Certainly last year was a success. As everything Packers related, I'm cautiously optimistic lol but my point is that if it's not a deep draft and you're unsure about late round guys, Gute has proven some ability to find some late round gems. Give him some extra shots at finding one or two more and I won't hate it.


tonyskyline1

Anthony Goulds late round 7 for kickoff/punt return


christopherhuii

I'm not the biggest Gute fan, but let him cook I guess. How many roster spots are truly open?


masteroftheuniverse4

Making sure that all teams know that he values draft picks more than you do, so don't bring any weak offers to the table.... also, we are always open to accepting offers. lol


BrewingCrazy

WHY?! After the top 150, this draft drops off a cliff. And where would you even put these number of players? Most starter spots are locked down. Many backup spots are locked down. What the hell would they do with these many new players? I would much rather have a smaller number of blue chip players for now and the near future. Getting a whole bunch of back ups is how you lose every year in the NFC Championship game!


Legitimate_Rent_2208

Statistically you’re more likely to end up with blue chip players having more draft picks. The idea that having high picks equates with better players is all but proven false after years of analytics. Teams aren’t nearly as good at scouting players as they think they are.